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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner 1991
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 930 DD after biofix First moth catch
2. 1160 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence
3. 1280 DD after biofix First egg hatch
4. 1345 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch
5. 1430 DD after biofix 95% moth emergence
6. 2250 DD after biofix First moth catch (2nd flight)
7. 2750 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
8. 2870 DD after biofix First egg hatch (2nd gen)
9. 3025 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
10. 3300 DD after biofix 95% emergence (2nd flight)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF22663 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burlinggame Lefore OR Lat45.9592 Long:-118.3756 Elev:925
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 63.90 40.00 0.03 11.04 11.0 * START *
3 2 59.30 40.90 0.00 9.10 20.1
3 3 64.60 45.10 0.02 13.85 34.0
3 4 59.60 34.50 0.00 7.49 41.5
3 5 64.60 49.00 0.01 15.80 57.3
3 6 66.00 48.30 0.03 16.15 73.4
3 7 56.60 41.10 0.00 7.85 81.3
3 8 53.20 36.20 0.00 4.82 86.1
3 9 58.10 42.30 0.00 9.20 95.3
3 10 62.00 43.70 0.02 11.85 107.1
3 11 47.10 34.80 0.03 1.93 109.1
3 12 54.50 39.80 0.02 6.30 115.4
3 13 58.40 38.70 0.00 7.89 123.3
3 14 50.70 38.10 0.00 4.01 127.3
3 15 51.60 40.00 0.00 4.93 132.2
3 16 55.40 38.20 0.00 6.29 138.5
3 17 54.30 32.40 0.00 4.74 143.2
3 18 57.80 27.10 0.00 5.63 148.9
3 19 62.50 31.20 0.00 8.26 157.1
3 20 61.50 36.40 0.05 8.80 165.9
3 21 63.60 43.80 0.00 12.70 178.6
3 22 52.80 43.10 0.08 6.95 185.6
3 23 60.20 44.40 0.00 11.30 196.9
3 24 58.10 46.60 0.00 11.35 208.2
3 25 55.90 42.90 0.01 8.40 216.6
3 26 63.10 39.80 0.00 10.57 227.2
3 27 57.60 48.10 0.01 11.85 239.0
3 28 51.10 38.10 0.00 4.20 243.2
3 29 61.60 36.70 0.00 8.92 252.2
3 30 64.30 35.80 0.00 10.01 262.2
3 31 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 279.2
4 1 76.90 42.90 0.00 18.90 298.1
4 2 77.40 52.20 0.00 23.80 321.9
4 3 75.90 45.50 0.00 19.70 341.6
4 4 61.80 46.70 0.09 13.25 354.9 Hx
4 5 63.80 40.40 0.00 11.14 366.0
4 6 62.20 38.80 0.00 9.79 375.8 Hx
4 7 75.20 35.60 0.00 15.26 391.0
4 8 78.50 46.50 0.00 21.50 412.5
4 9 81.90 53.70 0.00 26.80 439.3
4 10 75.20 48.70 0.00 20.95 460.3
4 11 78.80 47.80 0.00 22.30 482.6
4 12 67.70 50.80 0.02 18.25 500.8
4 13 63.10 48.40 0.00 14.75 515.6
4 14 64.90 42.50 0.01 12.70 528.3
4 15 67.20 44.70 0.00 14.95 543.2
4 16 71.50 40.10 0.00 14.86 558.1
4 17 79.00 38.80 0.00 18.12 576.2
4 18 79.00 40.50 0.00 18.77 595.0 Vx
4 19 84.30 47.60 0.00 24.95 620.0
4 20 87.30 46.40 0.00 25.62 645.6
4 21 79.80 53.70 0.00 25.75 671.3
4 22 75.10 54.60 0.01 23.85 695.2
4 23 71.70 52.80 0.00 21.25 716.4
4 24 66.20 49.20 0.00 16.70 733.1
4 25 64.60 42.40 0.00 12.50 745.6 Vx
4 26 65.40 43.00 0.00 13.20 758.8
4 27 60.70 47.70 0.01 13.20 772.0
4 28 71.70 49.50 0.00 19.60 791.6
4 29 58.40 48.30 0.03 12.35 804.0
4 30 68.30 47.60 0.01 16.95 820.9
5 1 77.70 42.90 0.00 19.30 840.2
5 2 84.70 45.80 0.00 24.25 864.5 Vx
5 3 88.40 64.80 0.00 35.04 899.5
5 4 77.30 58.70 0.00 27.00 926.5
5 5 69.10 45.80 0.00 16.45 943.0 Hx Hn First moth catch
5 6 77.70 51.50 0.01 23.60 966.6
5 7 83.70 52.70 0.00 27.20 993.8
5 8 78.70 58.70 0.00 27.70 1021.5
5 9 65.30 47.50 0.00 15.40 1036.9 Vx
5 10 73.80 40.70 0.00 16.26 1053.1
5 11 81.10 46.20 0.00 22.65 1075.8 Vx Vn
5 12 86.50 62.10 0.00 33.14 1108.9
5 13 82.90 47.60 0.00 24.25 1133.2
5 14 67.50 52.70 0.08 19.10 1152.3
5 15 59.20 50.90 0.09 14.05 1166.3 50% moth emergence
5 16 70.10 51.60 0.03 19.85 1186.2
5 17 77.90 49.90 0.00 22.90 1209.1
5 18 83.30 56.40 0.00 28.85 1237.9
5 19 68.80 49.20 0.00 18.00 1255.9
5 20 61.20 40.90 0.00 10.05 1266.0
5 21 64.10 46.00 0.02 14.05 1280.0 First egg hatch
5 22 69.10 50.80 0.00 18.95 1299.0
5 23 72.00 51.20 0.00 20.60 1319.6
5 24 71.90 50.20 0.00 20.05 1339.6
5 25 77.70 48.60 0.00 22.15 1361.8 50% egg hatch
5 26 70.50 51.20 0.00 19.85 1381.6
5 27 68.30 50.50 0.00 18.40 1400.0
5 28 76.30 48.80 0.00 21.55 1421.6
5 29 78.70 55.30 0.00 26.00 1447.6 95% moth emergence
5 30 75.90 50.60 0.00 22.25 1469.8 Vx
5 31 84.40 46.70 0.00 24.55 1494.4 Vx
6 1 84.00 52.30 0.00 27.15 1521.5
6 2 75.70 62.00 0.00 27.85 1549.4
6 3 85.80 57.70 0.00 30.69 1580.1
6 4 92.60 51.70 0.00 29.73 1609.8
6 5 92.90 56.40 0.00 32.05 1641.9
6 6 99.00 65.60 0.00 37.26 1679.1 Vx
6 7 97.00 65.70 0.00 37.06 1716.2
6 8 86.50 66.90 0.00 35.52 1751.7
6 9 76.90 58.20 0.00 26.55 1778.2
6 10 70.50 52.70 0.04 20.60 1798.8
6 11 74.00 48.90 0.00 20.45 1819.3
6 12 79.50 46.50 0.00 22.00 1841.3
6 13 74.70 54.30 0.00 23.50 1864.8 Vx
6 14 70.00 50.40 0.00 19.20 1884.0
6 15 69.00 48.30 0.00 17.65 1901.6
6 16 67.90 47.00 0.02 16.45 1918.1
6 17 77.10 46.60 0.00 20.85 1938.9
6 18 59.00 54.70 0.07 15.85 1954.8
6 19 73.40 46.80 0.00 19.10 1973.9
6 20 79.60 47.20 0.00 22.40 1996.3
6 21 80.70 58.40 0.00 28.55 2024.8
6 22 85.80 50.10 0.00 26.90 2051.7
6 23 81.10 58.70 0.00 28.90 2080.6
6 24 74.50 54.20 0.01 23.35 2104.0
6 25 80.70 49.90 0.00 24.30 2128.3
6 26 90.80 49.20 0.00 28.07 2156.4
6 27 93.30 56.90 0.00 32.38 2188.7 Vx
6 28 86.00 64.60 0.02 34.21 2222.9
6 29 94.40 66.20 0.00 36.91 2259.9 Vx First moth catch (2nd flight)
6 30 91.80 66.20 0.00 36.47 2296.3 Vx Vn
7 1 88.90 60.50 0.00 33.08 2329.4 Vx
7 2 89.90 62.70 0.00 34.40 2363.8 Vx
7 3 85.40 67.00 0.00 35.17 2399.0 Vx
7 4 80.30 57.30 0.00 27.80 2426.8 Vx Vn
7 5 78.70 55.00 0.00 25.85 2452.6
7 6 80.70 61.00 0.00 29.85 2482.5
7 7 81.30 56.80 0.00 28.05 2510.5 Vx
7 8 77.70 59.70 0.16 27.70 2538.2 Vx
7 9 77.70 57.60 0.07 26.65 2564.9
7 10 67.80 57.30 0.00 21.55 2586.4
7 11 80.50 58.70 0.00 28.60 2615.0 Vx Vn
7 12 80.00 56.80 0.01 27.40 2642.4
7 13 83.70 57.10 0.00 29.40 2671.8
7 14 89.60 57.60 0.00 31.85 2703.7 Vx
7 15 81.20 56.90 0.00 28.05 2731.7 Vx
7 16 83.50 58.50 0.00 30.00 2761.7 Vx 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
7 17 87.80 59.80 0.00 32.42 2794.1 Vx
7 18 80.60 59.70 0.00 29.15 2823.3 Vx
7 19 80.00 60.00 0.00 29.00 2852.3
7 20 87.40 61.70 0.00 33.24 2885.5 Vx First egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 21 95.10 55.60 0.00 32.12 2917.7 Vx
7 22 82.80 63.30 0.00 32.05 2949.7 Vx
7 23 83.90 57.00 0.00 29.45 2979.2 Vx
7 24 90.00 56.20 0.00 31.27 3010.4 Vx
7 25 96.60 63.60 0.00 36.06 3046.5 Vx 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 26 95.20 71.40 0.00 39.32 3085.8 Vx
7 27 95.00 69.20 0.00 38.34 3124.2 Vx Vn
7 28 99.10 67.70 0.00 38.18 3162.3 Vx
7 29 101.50 69.60 0.00 39.20 3201.5 Vx
7 30 94.50 71.70 0.00 39.37 3240.9 Vx Vn
7 31 86.50 59.70 0.00 31.95 3272.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF22663 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
Pandemis leafroller model - Brunner 1991Location: 2016 MF22663 Burlinggame Lefore OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-5-16 | 943 | First moth catch |
| 5-15-16 | 1166 | 50% moth emergence |
| 5-21-16 | 1280 | First egg hatch |
| 5-25-16 | 1362 | 50% egg hatch |
| 5-29-16 | 1448 | 95% moth emergence |
| 6-29-16 | 2260 | First moth catch (2nd flight) |
| 7-16-16 | 2762 | 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) |
| 7-20-16 | 2886 | First egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-25-16 | 3046 | 50% egg hatch (2nd gen) |
![degree-day graph of Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner 1991](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2959098)
