Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF26038 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Benito OR Lat45.9742 Long:-118.4092 Elev:866 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 62.90 42.70 0.00 9.82 9.8 * START * 5 21 65.40 44.50 0.00 11.95 21.8 5 22 67.70 52.20 0.00 16.95 38.7 5 23 70.50 51.10 0.00 17.80 56.5 Vx 5 24 76.40 50.00 0.00 20.20 76.7 5 25 79.00 49.40 0.00 21.20 97.9 5 26 70.60 53.20 0.00 18.90 116.8 5 27 68.30 50.90 0.00 16.60 133.4 5 28 76.50 49.30 0.00 19.90 153.3 50% catch 5 29 79.00 54.30 0.00 23.65 177.0 5 30 76.40 45.10 0.00 17.75 194.7 Vx 5 31 83.20 40.50 0.00 19.11 213.8 6 1 84.40 50.10 0.00 24.25 238.1 6 2 76.30 65.20 0.00 27.75 265.8 6 3 86.80 55.00 0.00 27.72 293.5 6 4 91.90 50.50 0.00 26.98 320.5 6 5 92.30 53.80 0.00 28.67 349.2 6 6 99.50 61.90 0.00 33.71 382.9 Vx 6 7 93.00 63.80 0.00 33.57 416.5 6 8 85.30 68.00 0.00 33.63 450.1 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 77.60 57.50 0.00 24.55 474.7 6 10 67.20 53.60 0.00 17.40 492.1 6 11 72.80 46.90 0.00 16.85 508.9 6 12 79.20 46.10 0.00 19.65 528.6 6 13 74.60 54.10 0.00 21.35 549.9 6 14 69.10 51.40 0.00 17.25 567.2 6 15 67.80 45.90 0.00 13.85 581.0 6 16 69.20 45.70 0.00 14.45 595.5 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 17 76.80 44.30 0.00 17.55 613.0 6 18 67.20 55.60 0.00 18.40 631.4 6 19 76.20 42.20 0.00 16.25 647.7 6 20 81.50 47.10 0.00 21.30 669.0 Vx 6 21 79.90 58.30 0.00 26.10 695.1 6 22 85.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 717.6 6 23 80.40 62.00 0.00 28.20 745.8 6 24 72.80 53.80 0.00 20.30 766.1 6 25 79.80 49.30 0.00 21.55 787.6 95% egg hatch 6 26 87.90 47.50 0.00 24.37 812.0 6 27 91.20 54.40 0.00 28.70 840.7 6 28 92.60 62.40 0.00 32.84 873.5 6 29 93.00 60.10 0.00 31.83 905.3 mostly small larvae present 6 30 87.30 63.90 0.00 32.29 937.6 7 1 87.00 57.00 0.00 28.78 966.4 7 2 89.00 61.90 0.00 31.79 998.2 7 3 85.00 66.80 0.00 32.90 1031.1 7 4 81.10 53.40 0.00 24.25 1055.4 7 5 80.50 51.60 0.00 23.05 1078.4 7 6 81.50 59.20 0.00 27.35 1105.8 7 7 80.00 56.80 0.00 25.40 1131.2 7 8 77.20 60.40 0.00 25.80 1157.0 7 9 77.10 57.90 0.00 24.50 1181.5 7 10 67.70 58.30 0.00 20.00 1201.5 mostly large larvae present 7 11 79.40 58.70 0.00 26.05 1227.5 7 12 79.00 56.30 0.00 24.65 1252.2 7 13 83.70 56.80 0.00 27.25 1279.4 7 14 88.90 51.50 0.00 26.66 1306.1 7 15 81.70 56.80 0.00 26.25 1332.3 7 16 82.50 55.50 0.00 26.00 1358.3 7 17 85.50 54.40 0.00 26.92 1385.2 7 18 80.00 58.90 0.00 26.45 1411.7 7 19 78.80 56.80 0.00 24.80 1436.5 7 20 86.30 58.70 0.00 29.38 1465.9 7 21 92.60 52.80 0.00 28.26 1494.1 5% catch next generation 7 22 81.30 60.30 0.00 27.80 1521.9 7 23 83.00 53.50 0.00 25.25 1547.2 7 24 88.90 51.00 0.00 26.41 1573.6 7 25 96.90 55.60 0.00 30.45 1604.0 Vx 7 26 92.80 66.60 0.00 34.83 1638.9 7 27 92.60 64.10 0.00 33.64 1672.5 7 28 94.70 64.30 0.00 34.09 1706.6 7 29 96.30 63.00 0.00 33.75 1740.4 7 30 90.50 66.50 0.00 34.35 1774.7 7 31 83.60 57.80 0.00 27.70 1802.4 8 1 86.10 57.90 0.00 28.91 1831.3 8 2 79.20 59.30 0.00 26.25 1857.6 8 3 82.60 52.00 0.00 24.30 1881.9 8 4 91.30 49.30 0.00 26.25 1908.1 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 5 89.60 52.70 0.00 27.45 1935.6 8 6 85.00 59.30 0.00 29.15 1964.7 8 7 82.90 58.40 0.00 27.65 1992.4 8 8 76.50 51.30 0.00 20.90 2013.3 Vx 8 9 73.20 55.10 0.00 21.15 2034.4 8 10 80.30 53.00 0.00 23.65 2058.1 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 11 88.50 52.00 0.00 26.79 2084.9 8 12 92.80 53.60 0.00 28.69 2113.5 8 13 90.50 56.60 0.00 29.59 2143.1 8 14 90.90 61.60 0.00 32.10 2175.2 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 15 96.10 62.10 0.00 33.31 2208.6 Vx 8 16 90.20 60.50 0.00 31.41 2240.0 8 17 91.30 60.90 0.00 31.86 2271.8 8 18 96.80 58.50 0.00 31.77 2303.6 Vx 8 19 87.40 55.70 0.00 28.27 2331.9 8 20 90.60 50.30 0.00 26.55 2358.4 8 21 93.70 55.70 0.00 29.89 2388.3 Vx 8 22 79.50 52.60 0.00 23.05 2411.3 Vx 8 23 80.80 50.10 0.00 22.45 2433.8 8 24 82.90 53.50 0.00 25.20 2459.0 8 25 85.20 49.40 0.00 24.29 2483.3 8 26 86.50 48.10 0.00 24.17 2507.5 8 27 86.60 60.80 0.00 30.53 2538.0 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 28 86.20 60.20 0.00 30.09 2568.1 Vn 8 29 94.40 53.90 0.00 29.18 2597.3 Vx 8 30 79.20 57.50 0.00 25.35 2622.6 8 31 81.70 53.30 0.00 24.50 2647.1 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF26038 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF26038 Davis Benito OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-28-16 15350% catch
 6-8-16 45095% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-16-16 59598% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-25-16 78895% egg hatch
 6-29-16 905mostly small larvae present
 7-10-16 1201mostly large larvae present
 7-21-16 14945% catch next generation
 8-4-16 190850% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-10-16 205868% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-14-16 217579% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-27-16 253895% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)