Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF25442 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burkes Klepper OR Lat45.9600 Long:-118.4106 Elev:908 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 61.80 43.90 0.00 9.85 9.8 * START * 5 21 65.10 46.20 0.03 12.65 22.5 5 22 68.80 53.50 0.00 18.15 40.6 5 23 70.20 52.20 0.00 18.20 58.8 Vx 5 24 71.60 53.30 0.00 19.45 78.3 5 25 77.30 51.80 0.00 21.55 99.8 5 26 70.50 54.50 0.00 19.50 119.3 5 27 67.30 51.30 0.00 16.30 135.6 5 28 75.90 49.90 0.00 19.90 155.5 50% catch 5 29 78.90 55.70 0.00 24.30 179.8 5 30 75.30 49.80 0.00 19.55 199.4 5 31 84.00 48.00 0.00 23.00 222.4 6 1 85.00 51.70 0.00 25.35 247.7 6 2 76.80 64.60 0.00 27.70 275.4 6 3 87.00 57.20 0.00 28.88 304.3 6 4 94.90 52.70 0.00 28.71 333.0 6 5 95.40 56.40 0.00 30.55 363.6 6 6 99.10 69.80 0.00 37.06 400.7 Vx 6 7 95.00 68.60 0.00 36.07 436.7 6 8 87.40 68.90 0.00 34.78 471.5 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 78.20 60.30 0.00 26.25 497.8 6 10 68.70 54.50 0.04 18.60 516.4 6 11 70.90 50.60 0.00 17.75 534.1 6 12 78.80 47.70 0.00 20.25 554.4 6 13 74.10 57.00 0.00 22.55 576.9 6 14 69.30 51.80 0.00 17.55 594.5 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 15 67.10 48.30 0.00 14.70 609.2 6 16 68.90 47.80 0.02 15.35 624.5 6 17 77.60 47.20 0.02 19.40 643.9 6 18 67.70 55.80 0.09 18.75 662.7 6 19 77.60 46.60 0.00 19.10 681.8 6 20 81.30 48.10 0.00 21.70 703.5 Vx 6 21 80.40 58.50 0.00 26.45 729.9 6 22 87.70 49.40 0.00 25.24 755.2 6 23 80.20 63.10 0.00 28.65 783.8 95% egg hatch 6 24 74.50 55.70 0.00 22.10 805.9 6 25 80.70 51.20 0.00 22.95 828.9 6 26 90.50 50.30 0.00 26.52 855.4 6 27 93.40 56.20 0.00 30.06 885.4 Vx 6 28 94.50 67.30 0.00 35.42 920.9 mostly small larvae present 6 29 94.30 64.50 0.00 34.12 955.0 Vx 6 30 90.30 65.70 0.00 33.93 988.9 Vx Vn 7 1 92.90 60.90 0.00 32.19 1021.1 7 2 89.80 64.00 0.00 33.00 1054.1 Vx 7 3 85.50 69.20 0.00 34.31 1088.4 Vx 7 4 82.30 54.90 0.00 25.60 1114.0 7 5 81.00 57.30 0.00 26.15 1140.2 7 6 78.50 61.50 0.00 27.00 1167.2 7 7 81.50 61.00 0.00 28.25 1195.4 Vx 7 8 77.70 61.50 0.11 26.60 1222.0 Vx mostly large larvae present 7 9 78.20 59.10 0.06 25.65 1247.7 7 10 69.80 59.40 0.00 21.60 1269.3 7 11 77.30 59.80 0.00 25.55 1294.8 7 12 79.00 59.00 0.02 26.00 1320.8 7 13 83.30 59.40 0.00 28.35 1349.2 Vx 7 14 89.70 53.80 0.00 28.02 1377.2 Vx 7 15 81.30 60.10 0.00 27.70 1404.9 Vx 7 16 83.50 60.60 0.00 29.05 1433.9 Vx 7 17 87.90 56.30 0.00 28.72 1462.7 Vx 7 18 81.60 61.70 0.00 28.65 1491.3 5% catch next generation 7 19 80.30 60.20 0.00 27.25 1518.6 7 20 87.30 62.10 0.00 31.40 1550.0 Vx 7 21 94.80 55.80 0.00 30.16 1580.1 Vx 7 22 82.90 65.90 0.00 31.40 1611.5 Vx 7 23 84.30 56.80 0.00 27.55 1639.1 7 24 90.10 55.50 0.00 28.96 1668.0 Vx 7 25 96.60 60.20 0.00 32.52 1700.5 Vx 7 26 95.30 71.40 0.00 37.33 1737.9 Vx 7 27 92.20 68.00 0.05 35.38 1773.3 7 28 95.00 67.30 0.04 35.50 1808.8 7 29 101.60 69.50 0.00 37.16 1845.9 Vx 7 30 94.60 71.60 0.00 37.34 1883.3 Vx 7 31 84.80 59.90 0.00 29.35 1912.6 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 1 90.40 56.50 0.00 29.52 1942.1 Vx Vn 8 2 78.40 62.30 0.00 27.35 1969.5 Vx Vn 8 3 83.60 57.00 0.00 27.30 1996.8 Vx 8 4 92.70 53.50 0.00 28.62 2025.4 Vx Vn 8 5 90.50 55.60 0.01 29.11 2054.5 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 6 87.40 64.00 0.00 32.37 2086.9 8 7 82.80 60.00 0.00 28.40 2115.3 Vx 8 8 75.90 52.80 0.00 21.35 2136.6 8 9 72.50 57.30 0.00 21.90 2158.5 8 10 84.10 58.20 0.00 28.15 2186.7 Vx 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 11 90.10 57.50 0.00 29.93 2216.6 Vx Vn 8 12 95.50 57.00 0.00 30.85 2247.5 Vx 8 13 97.60 57.70 0.00 31.54 2279.0 Vx 8 14 95.50 70.30 0.00 36.88 2315.9 Vx Vn 8 15 95.70 63.20 0.00 33.75 2349.6 Vx Vn 8 16 91.90 64.40 0.05 33.64 2383.3 8 17 88.50 64.60 0.03 32.97 2416.2 8 18 96.50 61.80 0.00 33.24 2449.5 Vx 8 19 86.70 57.10 0.00 28.73 2478.2 8 20 91.70 58.60 0.05 30.84 2509.1 8 21 94.40 62.30 0.00 33.12 2542.2 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 22 79.60 55.20 0.00 24.40 2566.6 8 23 82.80 51.20 0.00 24.00 2590.6 8 24 86.70 57.20 0.00 28.78 2619.3 Vx 8 25 89.50 51.10 0.00 26.64 2646.0 8 26 88.70 51.50 0.03 26.60 2672.6 8 27 88.30 71.70 0.02 36.36 2708.9 8 28 85.70 64.80 0.03 32.20 2741.1 8 29 91.80 56.30 0.00 29.76 2770.9 Vx 8 30 81.30 62.50 0.00 28.90 2799.8 8 31 83.00 57.50 0.00 27.25 2827.1 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF25442 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF25442 Burkes Klepper OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-28-16 15650% catch
 6-8-16 47295% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-14-16 59498% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-23-16 78495% egg hatch
 6-28-16 921mostly small larvae present
 7-8-16 1222mostly large larvae present
 7-18-16 14915% catch next generation
 7-31-16 191350% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-5-16 205568% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-10-16 218779% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-21-16 254295% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)