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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 MDFO Agrimet MEDFORD OR Lat42.3308 Long-122.9378 Elev:1339 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 39.00 32.80 0.01 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 39.00 34.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 43.70 35.10 0.02 0.00 0.0 1 4 55.00 35.90 0.00 1.12 1.1 1 5 56.10 40.40 0.09 1.69 2.8 1 6 53.00 32.90 0.00 0.50 3.3 1 7 36.80 28.60 0.00 0.00 3.3 1 8 44.80 33.70 0.04 0.00 3.3 1 9 51.50 38.60 0.05 0.22 3.5 1 10 43.70 37.30 0.16 0.00 3.5 1 11 55.40 39.00 0.17 1.36 4.9 1 12 53.20 33.90 0.00 0.56 5.4 1 13 54.60 30.20 0.00 0.86 6.3 1 14 53.00 29.90 0.00 0.47 6.8 1 15 57.20 32.10 0.05 1.69 8.5 1 16 51.80 38.90 0.01 0.29 8.8 1 17 70.60 36.50 0.00 7.32 16.1 1 18 54.20 35.60 0.37 0.87 16.9 1 19 46.00 33.50 0.09 0.00 16.9 1 20 47.00 32.00 0.01 0.00 16.9 1 21 49.40 33.00 0.01 0.00 16.9 1 22 48.40 31.40 0.05 0.00 16.9 1 23 50.90 31.80 0.00 0.08 17.0 1 24 47.00 32.40 0.29 0.00 17.0 1 25 45.10 29.00 0.18 0.00 17.0 1 26 47.80 30.60 0.00 0.00 17.0 1 27 49.80 39.50 0.02 0.00 17.0 1 28 54.00 40.60 0.00 0.96 18.0 1 29 53.50 38.90 0.00 0.75 18.7 1 30 50.90 42.20 0.00 0.12 18.9 1 31 49.30 34.00 0.01 0.00 18.9 2 1 57.80 37.70 0.00 2.15 21.0 2 2 66.50 38.80 0.00 5.81 26.8 2 3 64.40 37.90 0.00 4.81 31.6 2 4 63.60 36.30 0.00 4.32 36.0 2 5 60.30 37.10 0.00 3.07 39.0 2 6 58.20 29.50 0.00 1.92 40.9 2 7 62.50 30.50 0.00 3.47 44.4 2 8 61.90 32.90 0.00 3.39 47.8 2 9 61.40 32.20 0.00 3.16 51.0 2 10 54.80 30.30 0.00 0.92 51.9 2 11 40.00 26.20 0.05 0.00 51.9 2 12 49.10 28.20 0.00 0.00 51.9 2 13 57.20 21.60 0.00 1.40 53.3 2 14 48.10 28.80 0.01 0.00 53.3 2 15 49.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 53.3 2 16 50.20 25.20 0.00 0.01 53.3 2 17 57.00 32.00 0.00 1.62 54.9 2 18 45.20 29.10 0.03 0.00 54.9 2 19 37.30 23.90 0.01 0.00 54.9 2 20 42.40 25.20 0.00 0.00 54.9 2 21 46.10 30.80 0.01 0.00 54.9 2 22 41.00 26.80 0.20 0.00 54.9 2 23 41.90 22.90 0.00 0.00 54.9 2 24 46.60 32.50 0.01 0.00 54.9 2 25 45.50 33.60 0.20 0.00 54.9 2 26 43.80 28.50 0.20 0.00 54.9 2 27 44.80 21.90 0.00 0.00 54.9 2 28 44.60 30.60 0.00 0.00 54.9 3 1 50.30 32.30 0.34 0.02 54.9 3 2 49.90 27.10 0.01 0.00 54.9 3 3 49.90 31.40 0.00 0.00 54.9 3 4 49.00 30.80 0.00 0.00 54.9 3 5 55.70 25.00 0.00 1.06 56.0 3 6 59.00 25.70 0.00 2.04 58.0 3 7 63.40 35.10 0.00 4.14 62.2 3 8 61.90 37.80 0.00 3.76 65.9 3 9 55.10 39.80 0.35 1.30 67.2 3 10 60.90 34.40 0.00 3.11 70.3 3 11 67.50 34.80 0.00 5.79 76.1 3 12 70.60 31.80 0.00 6.79 82.9 3 13 62.10 42.40 0.31 4.34 87.3 3 14 53.80 34.40 0.06 0.73 88.0 3 15 50.50 34.50 0.00 0.04 88.0 3 16 47.80 35.40 0.02 0.00 88.0 3 17 50.60 35.80 0.02 0.05 88.1 3 18 54.00 34.80 0.01 0.79 88.9 3 19 60.10 29.90 0.00 2.57 91.4 3 20 58.20 37.30 0.00 2.28 93.7 3 21 62.80 40.60 0.28 4.42 98.1 3 22 48.60 34.30 0.05 0.00 98.1 3 23 48.80 32.40 0.25 0.00 98.1 3 24 48.20 28.90 0.00 0.00 98.1 3 25 50.90 30.80 0.01 0.08 98.2 3 26 55.40 30.00 0.00 1.08 99.3 3 27 64.20 30.80 0.00 4.13 103.4 3 28 68.50 35.40 0.00 6.28 109.7 3 29 72.00 34.60 0.00 7.70 117.4 3 30 69.40 35.00 0.00 6.62 124.0 3 31 72.90 41.70 0.00 9.17 133.2 4 1 63.20 35.20 0.00 4.06 137.3 4 2 53.90 34.50 0.01 0.76 138.0 4 3 62.70 27.40 0.00 3.37 141.4 4 4 69.00 42.30 0.00 7.46 148.8 4 5 57.30 49.50 0.32 3.45 152.3 4 6 61.40 48.70 0.09 5.23 157.5 4 7 59.60 45.70 0.14 3.70 161.2 4 8 60.00 42.20 0.01 3.40 164.6 4 9 72.40 34.70 0.00 7.88 172.5 4 10 62.00 39.80 0.02 3.99 176.5 4 11 60.20 37.80 0.06 3.08 179.6 4 12 51.50 34.90 0.02 0.19 179.8 4 13 56.50 34.40 0.00 1.54 181.3 4 14 60.00 39.10 0.01 3.10 184.4 4 15 51.10 38.90 0.12 0.14 184.6 4 16 49.40 34.60 0.11 0.00 184.6 4 17 55.30 33.90 0.00 1.15 185.7 4 18 55.50 39.90 0.06 1.44 187.2 4 19 63.80 32.00 0.00 4.06 191.2 4 20 70.40 34.80 0.00 7.03 198.2 4 21 69.60 37.10 0.00 6.96 205.2 4 22 70.30 35.50 0.00 7.07 212.3 4 23 78.40 34.60 0.00 10.53 222.8 4 24 84.50 37.50 0.00 13.82 236.6 4 25 88.60 43.80 0.00 17.16 253.8 4 26 85.80 45.70 0.00 16.35 270.1 1st egg laying by ow females 4 27 60.30 48.40 0.02 4.60 274.7 4 28 58.80 43.20 0.36 3.00 277.7 4 29 55.60 43.80 0.14 1.73 279.5 4 30 56.60 42.10 0.03 1.99 281.4 5 1 62.60 40.60 0.00 4.34 285.8 5 2 75.40 34.50 0.00 9.18 295.0 5 3 79.20 41.10 0.00 12.02 307.0 5 4 78.90 43.40 0.00 12.38 319.4 5 5 77.90 49.10 0.00 13.57 332.9 5 6 77.40 52.70 0.04 15.05 348.0 5 7 79.60 43.30 0.00 12.70 360.7 5 8 79.80 46.70 0.00 13.70 374.4 5 9 72.60 51.60 0.00 12.10 386.5 5 10 65.10 47.60 0.00 6.73 393.2 5 11 64.40 40.00 0.00 5.05 398.3 5 12 77.20 38.10 0.00 10.53 408.8 5 13 84.20 42.40 0.00 14.70 423.5 5 14 86.80 47.70 0.00 17.49 441.0 5 15 82.50 50.50 0.17 16.50 457.5 5 16 60.40 55.00 0.23 7.70 465.2 5 17 78.10 53.60 0.00 15.85 481.0 5 18 78.50 44.70 0.00 12.51 493.5 5 19 77.60 45.10 0.00 12.17 505.7 5 20 70.50 46.10 0.00 8.97 514.7 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 21 79.80 43.40 0.00 12.82 527.5 5 22 86.60 45.90 0.00 16.81 544.3 5 23 81.20 53.70 0.14 17.45 561.7 5 24 82.20 57.30 0.31 19.75 581.5 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 25 63.80 53.60 0.10 8.70 590.2 5 26 64.90 48.40 0.01 6.86 597.1 5 27 80.20 39.40 0.00 12.16 609.2 5 28 84.20 46.70 0.00 15.87 625.1 5 29 71.20 46.10 0.00 9.31 634.4 5 30 67.90 45.30 0.00 7.53 641.9 5 31 61.30 49.20 0.00 5.34 647.3 6 1 76.10 40.80 0.00 10.50 657.8 6 2 86.90 42.50 0.00 16.03 673.8 6 3 85.60 48.70 0.00 17.25 691.0 6 4 74.80 45.60 0.00 10.94 702.0 6 5 76.20 40.30 0.00 10.45 712.4 6 6 81.60 48.40 0.00 15.15 727.6 6 7 81.20 48.00 0.00 14.81 742.4 6 8 80.00 42.80 0.06 12.77 755.2 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 9 58.30 45.30 0.22 3.05 758.2 6 10 63.70 41.10 0.00 4.88 763.1 6 11 79.30 52.90 0.00 16.10 779.2 6 12 88.80 45.40 0.00 17.70 796.9 6 13 81.70 47.40 0.00 14.86 811.7 6 14 78.20 50.70 0.00 14.45 826.2 6 15 75.00 42.80 0.00 10.38 836.6 6 16 72.80 42.10 0.00 9.20 845.8 6 17 79.20 45.20 0.18 12.98 858.7 6 18 84.90 48.70 0.00 16.90 875.7 6 19 89.90 51.30 0.00 20.42 896.1 6 20 92.40 54.00 0.00 22.56 918.6 6 21 88.30 49.30 0.00 18.83 937.5 6 22 85.90 51.20 0.00 18.55 956.0 6 23 86.60 47.90 0.00 17.46 973.5 6 24 98.30 49.00 0.00 21.67 995.1 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 25 80.30 49.70 0.00 15.01 1010.1 6 26 85.20 46.30 0.00 16.24 1026.4 6 27 84.10 48.00 0.00 16.25 1042.6 6 28 79.90 48.70 0.00 14.41 1057.1 6 29 85.90 45.50 0.00 16.34 1073.4 6 30 91.40 50.00 0.00 20.28 1093.7 7 1 89.70 52.90 0.00 21.14 1114.8 7 2 82.00 50.30 0.00 16.15 1131.0 7 3 83.50 43.60 0.00 14.66 1145.6 7 4 87.70 47.90 0.00 18.01 1163.6 7 5 88.70 48.10 0.00 18.54 1182.2 7 6 84.60 53.60 0.00 19.10 1201.3 7 7 86.90 46.80 0.00 17.24 1218.5 7 8 90.40 47.70 0.00 19.03 1237.5 7 9 89.10 52.10 0.00 20.52 1258.1 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 10 87.50 50.80 0.00 19.15 1277.2 7 11 94.30 53.00 0.00 22.59 1299.8 7 12 103.00 56.20 0.00 25.87 1325.7 7 13 100.80 60.60 0.00 27.53 1353.2 7 14 103.00 65.70 0.00 30.12 1383.3 7 15 96.20 58.60 0.04 25.74 1409.1 7 16 102.10 60.20 0.00 27.55 1436.6 7 17 101.30 62.20 0.00 28.33 1464.9 7 18 94.60 53.70 0.00 23.01 1487.9 7 19 94.60 54.20 0.00 23.25 1511.2 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 20 89.90 51.40 0.00 20.47 1531.7 7 21 89.40 50.10 0.00 19.64 1551.3 7 22 96.80 48.80 0.00 21.25 1572.5 7 23 98.20 57.70 0.00 25.72 1598.3 7 24 100.10 61.50 0.00 27.82 1626.1 7 25 99.30 61.70 0.00 27.78 1653.9 7 26 100.90 59.60 0.00 27.08 1680.9 7 27 98.60 56.30 0.00 25.14 1706.1 7 28 97.60 53.90 0.00 23.80 1729.9 7 29 98.90 55.60 0.00 24.87 1754.7 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 30 95.60 58.80 0.00 25.70 1780.4 7 31 95.10 59.20 0.00 25.78 1806.2 8 1 93.30 54.20 0.00 22.91 1829.1 8 2 92.20 53.80 0.00 22.40 1851.5 8 3 88.50 49.60 0.00 19.04 1870.6 8 4 88.50 50.80 0.00 19.63 1890.2 8 5 89.30 53.10 0.00 21.10 1911.3 8 6 90.40 54.90 0.00 22.38 1933.7 8 7 95.40 55.60 0.00 24.12 1957.8 8 8 98.20 58.60 0.00 26.14 1983.9 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 9 99.70 61.20 0.00 27.62 2011.6 8 10 97.20 58.00 0.00 25.66 2037.2 8 11 85.20 53.90 0.00 19.55 2056.8 8 12 90.20 49.10 0.00 19.49 2076.3 8 13 93.20 52.10 0.00 21.85 2098.1 8 14 96.50 55.40 0.00 24.27 2122.4 8 15 94.60 58.10 0.00 25.14 2147.5 8 16 92.50 57.50 0.00 24.31 2171.8 8 17 90.50 52.70 0.00 21.33 2193.2 8 18 94.50 47.40 0.00 20.17 2213.3 8 19 92.90 50.10 0.00 20.79 2234.1 8 20 94.30 49.80 0.00 21.03 2255.2 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 21 91.60 53.90 0.00 22.27 2277.4 8 22 93.10 54.40 0.00 22.95 2300.4 8 23 87.90 55.00 0.00 21.45 2321.8 8 24 80.40 47.10 0.00 14.12 2335.9 8 25 85.60 43.70 0.00 15.70 2351.7 8 26 81.00 45.80 0.00 14.02 2365.7 8 27 83.30 55.20 0.00 19.25 2384.9 8 28 91.50 48.40 0.00 19.65 2404.6 8 29 90.30 49.10 0.00 19.52 2424.1 8 30 84.50 50.90 0.00 17.70 2441.8 8 31 83.50 52.10 0.00 17.80 2459.6 9 1 87.80 44.50 0.00 16.99 2476.6 9 2 91.70 45.70 0.00 18.81 2495.4 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 9 3 90.60 45.70 0.00 18.45 2513.9 9 4 90.20 48.00 0.00 19.07 2532.9 9 5 93.40 48.80 0.00 20.38 2553.3 9 6 89.80 52.00 0.00 20.73 2574.0 9 7 89.90 50.70 0.00 20.12 2594.2 9 8 80.60 45.20 0.00 13.66 2607.8 9 9 84.80 46.30 0.00 16.04 2623.9 9 10 82.60 46.40 0.00 14.99 2638.8 Px 9 11 72.00 52.60 0.00 12.30 2651.1 9 12 71.50 49.50 0.00 10.53 2661.7 9 13 72.60 44.40 0.00 9.58 2671.3 9 14 74.00 42.00 0.00 9.74 2681.0 9 15 71.70 39.50 0.00 8.24 2689.2 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MDFO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021