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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KUIN METAR Quincy Reg-Baldwin Fld IL Lat:39.9425 Long:-91.1942 Elev:768 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 3.20 -13.00 10.40 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 16.00 -11.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 19.90 1.90 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 4 10.40 -2.90 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 5 15.80 -2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 18.00 -5.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 34.00 17.60 0.20 0.00 0.0 1 8 35.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 37.90 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 10 57.20 35.60 0.00 1.83 1.8 1 11 57.20 10.90 0.29 1.22 3.1 1 12 16.00 6.80 0.01 0.00 3.1 1 13 17.60 8.10 0.00 0.00 3.1 1 14 25.00 12.00 0.05 0.00 3.1 1 15 28.90 -0.90 0.34 0.00 3.1 1 16 10.40 -6.00 0.03 0.00 3.1 1 17 21.20 -4.00 0.00 0.00 3.1 1 18 37.40 15.10 0.00 0.00 3.1 1 19 50.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 3.1 1 20 51.80 33.80 0.00 0.24 3.3 1 21 63.00 35.60 0.66 4.02 7.3 1 22 57.20 33.10 0.09 1.73 9.0 1 23 36.00 27.00 0.02 0.00 9.0 1 24 36.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 9.0 1 25 57.90 26.60 0.00 1.73 10.8 1 26 59.00 42.10 0.00 2.97 13.7 1 27 53.60 33.10 0.00 0.65 14.4 1 28 46.40 26.10 0.00 0.00 14.4 1 29 30.90 19.00 0.00 0.00 14.4 1 30 36.00 12.20 0.00 0.00 14.4 1 31 48.90 35.60 0.00 0.00 14.4 2 1 37.40 12.00 0.00 0.00 14.4 2 2 27.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 14.4 2 3 46.90 23.00 0.00 0.00 14.4 2 4 39.20 5.00 0.02 0.00 14.4 2 5 21.20 1.00 0.03 0.00 14.4 2 6 18.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 14.4 2 7 23.00 6.80 0.01 0.00 14.4 2 8 43.00 17.10 0.00 0.00 14.4 2 9 39.90 21.00 0.01 0.00 14.4 2 10 21.90 14.00 0.04 0.00 14.4 2 11 24.80 12.90 0.02 0.00 14.4 2 12 28.90 6.10 0.00 0.00 14.4 2 13 39.90 15.80 0.00 0.00 14.4 2 14 57.20 33.10 0.00 1.73 16.1 2 15 66.20 36.00 0.01 5.37 21.5 2 16 37.40 19.90 0.00 0.00 21.5 2 17 43.00 21.20 0.06 0.00 21.5 2 18 50.00 26.10 0.25 0.00 21.5 2 19 64.40 44.60 0.92 5.73 27.2 2 20 62.60 26.10 0.98 3.26 30.5 2 21 28.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 30.5 2 22 37.90 28.00 0.13 0.00 30.5 2 23 39.20 33.80 0.07 0.00 30.5 2 24 46.90 33.10 0.29 0.00 30.5 2 25 48.90 30.00 0.00 0.00 30.5 2 26 59.00 28.40 0.00 2.14 32.6 2 27 68.00 37.00 0.00 6.25 38.9 2 28 59.00 50.00 0.06 4.50 43.4 3 1 53.60 32.00 0.01 0.63 44.0 3 2 52.00 24.80 0.00 0.23 44.2 3 3 55.40 32.00 0.00 1.13 45.4 3 4 57.20 33.10 0.68 1.73 47.1 3 5 48.20 32.00 0.39 0.00 47.1 3 6 37.90 30.20 0.03 0.00 47.1 3 7 35.60 28.40 0.01 0.00 47.1 3 8 37.90 21.00 0.01 0.00 47.1 3 9 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 47.1 3 10 50.00 28.40 0.12 0.00 47.1 3 11 44.10 30.90 0.11 0.00 47.1 3 12 48.90 28.90 0.00 0.00 47.1 3 13 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 47.1 3 14 55.90 19.40 0.00 1.02 48.1 3 15 61.00 37.00 0.00 3.33 51.5 3 16 44.60 32.00 0.05 0.00 51.5 3 17 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 51.5 3 18 51.80 33.10 0.00 0.24 51.7 3 19 54.00 33.10 0.01 0.76 52.4 3 20 42.80 30.00 0.00 0.00 52.4 3 21 48.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 52.4 3 22 45.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 52.4 3 23 50.00 39.20 1.00 0.00 52.4 3 24 41.00 32.00 0.08 0.00 52.4 3 25 48.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 52.4 3 26 52.00 35.60 1.22 0.30 52.7 3 27 54.00 37.90 1.65 0.87 53.6 3 28 46.00 37.00 0.08 0.00 53.6 3 29 48.90 39.00 0.09 0.00 53.6 3 30 53.10 30.20 0.02 0.49 54.1 3 31 64.40 30.00 0.01 4.15 58.3 4 1 30.20 19.00 0.21 0.00 58.3 4 2 37.40 8.60 0.00 0.00 58.3 4 3 44.60 30.90 0.04 0.00 58.3 4 4 39.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 58.3 4 5 60.80 26.60 0.00 2.67 60.9 4 6 44.60 24.10 0.00 0.00 60.9 4 7 39.90 17.10 0.00 0.00 60.9 4 8 37.90 25.00 0.15 0.00 60.9 4 9 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 60.9 4 10 50.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 60.9 4 11 73.40 41.00 0.00 9.27 70.2 4 12 82.40 55.00 0.00 18.70 88.9 4 13 75.20 57.20 0.07 16.20 105.1 4 14 64.40 37.00 0.13 4.72 109.8 4 15 41.00 30.00 0.03 0.00 109.8 4 16 45.00 26.60 0.01 0.00 109.8 4 17 57.20 24.80 0.00 1.48 111.3 4 18 46.90 33.80 0.00 0.00 111.3 4 19 57.20 32.00 0.00 1.68 113.0 4 20 61.00 30.20 0.00 2.90 115.9 4 21 63.00 44.60 0.00 5.08 121.0 4 22 68.00 48.20 0.00 8.33 129.3 4 23 72.00 48.00 0.00 10.25 139.5 4 24 73.90 51.80 0.00 12.85 152.4 4 25 62.60 48.00 0.00 5.62 158.0 4 26 70.00 39.20 0.00 7.42 165.4 4 27 73.40 41.00 0.00 9.27 174.7 4 28 62.60 35.60 0.00 3.86 178.6 4 29 66.90 35.10 0.00 5.57 184.1 4 30 82.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 200.3 5 1 84.90 62.10 0.00 23.50 223.8 5 2 84.90 64.00 0.43 24.45 248.3 5 3 75.20 64.00 0.13 19.60 267.9 1st egg laying by ow females 5 4 75.90 57.90 0.31 16.90 284.8 5 5 82.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 301.0 5 6 84.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 322.6 5 7 78.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 337.9 5 8 81.00 53.60 0.30 17.30 355.2 5 9 84.20 62.10 1.47 23.15 378.3 5 10 84.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 398.5 5 11 82.90 62.10 0.00 22.50 421.0 5 12 81.00 59.00 0.01 20.00 441.0 5 13 88.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 463.6 5 14 88.00 64.00 0.04 26.00 489.6 5 15 80.60 62.60 0.01 21.60 511.2 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 16 82.90 60.10 0.00 21.50 532.7 5 17 84.00 60.10 0.00 22.05 554.7 5 18 71.60 62.60 0.14 17.10 571.8 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 19 77.00 60.80 0.00 18.90 590.7 5 20 79.00 62.10 0.31 20.55 611.3 5 21 80.60 64.00 0.05 22.30 633.6 5 22 82.90 59.00 0.00 20.95 654.5 5 23 84.90 62.60 0.00 23.75 678.3 5 24 88.00 66.00 0.00 27.00 705.3 5 25 84.90 68.00 0.14 26.45 731.7 5 26 91.90 64.40 0.01 27.52 759.2 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 27 96.80 69.80 0.00 31.09 790.3 5 28 95.00 69.10 0.00 30.46 820.8 5 29 88.00 69.80 0.01 28.90 849.7 5 30 89.10 71.10 0.07 29.98 879.7 5 31 84.90 69.10 0.00 27.00 906.7 6 1 96.80 66.20 0.00 29.43 936.1 6 2 84.20 64.00 0.06 24.10 960.2 6 3 84.90 57.20 0.00 21.05 981.3 6 4 82.40 51.10 0.00 16.75 998.0 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 5 89.60 53.60 0.00 21.46 1019.5 6 6 88.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 1043.0 6 7 91.90 66.00 0.00 28.30 1071.3 6 8 90.00 73.40 0.00 31.40 1102.7 6 9 87.80 73.00 0.00 30.40 1133.1 6 10 91.00 73.00 0.00 31.47 1164.5 6 11 87.80 69.80 0.00 28.80 1193.3 6 12 89.60 71.10 0.00 30.15 1223.5 6 13 84.20 66.20 0.00 25.20 1248.7 6 14 87.80 60.10 0.32 23.95 1272.6 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 6 15 95.00 66.00 0.00 29.00 1301.6 6 16 95.00 75.00 0.00 33.17 1334.8 6 17 95.00 75.00 0.00 33.17 1368.0 6 18 96.80 75.20 0.00 33.50 1401.5 6 19 95.00 69.80 0.13 30.79 1432.3 6 20 90.00 69.10 0.95 29.28 1461.6 6 21 78.80 66.00 0.12 22.40 1484.0 6 22 68.00 64.40 0.01 16.20 1500.2 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 6 23 79.00 64.00 0.00 21.50 1521.7 6 24 84.90 62.10 0.00 23.50 1545.2 6 25 82.90 66.20 0.00 24.55 1569.7 6 26 83.20 69.80 3.57 26.50 1596.2 Px 6 27 98.90 60.90 0.00 27.34 1623.6 Px Pn 6 28 84.90 65.40 0.00 25.15 1648.7 Px Pn 6 29 93.90 80.60 0.00 35.49 1684.2 6 30 93.90 77.00 0.00 33.91 1718.1 7 1 89.60 73.00 0.00 31.09 1749.2 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 7 2 88.00 66.20 0.00 27.10 1776.3 7 3 93.20 71.10 0.00 31.05 1807.4 7 4 95.00 75.00 0.00 33.17 1840.5 7 5 93.90 73.00 0.27 32.08 1872.6 7 6 84.90 66.00 0.00 25.45 1898.1 7 7 82.40 55.90 0.00 19.15 1917.2 7 8 87.80 57.00 0.00 22.40 1939.6 7 9 91.90 69.80 0.00 30.14 1969.7 7 10 95.00 71.60 0.00 31.62 2001.4 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 7 11 91.90 69.80 0.00 30.14 2031.5 7 12 93.20 68.00 0.00 29.58 2061.1 7 13 98.10 69.10 0.00 30.97 2092.1 7 14 96.80 71.60 0.27 31.91 2124.0 7 15 90.00 69.10 0.00 29.28 2153.2 7 16 91.90 69.10 0.01 29.80 2183.0 7 17 88.00 64.00 0.00 26.00 2209.0 7 18 87.80 66.00 0.18 26.90 2235.9 7 19 88.00 64.40 0.96 26.20 2262.1 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 7 20 84.90 66.20 0.00 25.55 2287.7 7 21 81.00 66.20 0.00 23.60 2311.3 7 22 80.10 64.40 0.00 22.25 2333.5 7 23 86.00 64.00 0.00 25.00 2358.5 7 24 88.00 64.40 0.00 26.20 2384.7 7 25 87.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 2409.0 7 26 82.90 64.90 0.00 23.90 2432.9 7 27 80.60 57.00 0.00 18.80 2451.7 7 28 81.00 57.00 0.90 19.00 2470.7 7 29 69.80 62.10 0.92 15.95 2486.7 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 7 30 80.60 62.60 0.00 21.60 2508.3 7 31 82.40 61.00 0.00 21.70 2530.0 8 1 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 2552.5 8 2 84.20 64.00 0.00 24.10 2576.6 8 3 91.90 66.20 0.00 28.39 2605.0 8 4 91.40 71.10 0.00 30.65 2635.6 8 5 93.20 69.80 0.05 30.43 2666.1 8 6 91.90 73.00 0.05 31.68 2697.8 8 7 82.40 69.10 0.08 25.75 2723.5 8 8 87.80 66.00 0.00 26.90 2750.4 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 8 9 91.40 64.00 0.00 27.19 2777.6 8 10 89.60 66.20 0.00 27.72 2805.3 8 11 89.60 64.40 0.00 26.83 2832.1 8 12 90.00 64.00 0.00 26.76 2858.9 8 13 90.00 66.00 0.00 27.75 2886.7 8 14 84.90 66.00 0.43 25.45 2912.1 8 15 82.90 71.10 0.28 27.00 2939.1 8 16 91.40 69.80 0.02 30.02 2969.1 8 17 82.90 68.00 0.01 25.45 2994.6 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 8 18 84.90 66.00 0.00 25.45 3020.0 8 19 84.90 64.40 0.12 24.65 3044.7 8 20 81.00 69.10 0.05 25.05 3069.7 8 21 82.90 64.00 0.00 23.45 3093.2 8 22 80.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 3112.1 8 23 82.40 55.00 1.56 18.70 3130.8 8 24 82.00 62.10 0.10 22.05 3152.8 8 25 91.90 73.00 0.00 31.68 3184.5 8 26 93.20 75.00 0.00 32.88 3217.4 8 27 93.90 75.00 0.00 33.00 3250.4 8 28 95.00 70.00 1.95 30.88 3281.3 8 29 73.40 64.40 0.00 18.90 3300.2 8 30 78.80 57.20 0.00 18.00 3318.2 8 31 78.80 68.00 0.13 23.40 3341.6 9 1 91.40 73.40 0.02 31.76 3373.3 9 2 89.60 73.00 0.00 31.09 3404.4 9 3 90.00 73.00 0.06 31.21 3435.6 9 4 91.40 71.10 0.00 30.65 3466.3 9 5 90.00 71.60 2.05 30.52 3496.8 9 6 75.20 69.10 1.40 22.15 3518.9 9 7 70.00 62.10 1.75 16.05 3535.0 9 8 66.20 62.10 0.02 14.15 3549.1 9 9 75.90 55.00 0.00 15.45 3564.6 9 10 77.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 3578.1 9 11 81.00 55.40 0.00 18.20 3596.3 9 12 82.40 57.00 0.00 19.70 3616.0 9 13 82.90 59.00 0.00 20.95 3636.9 9 14 89.60 64.40 0.00 26.83 3663.8 9 15 89.60 64.40 0.00 26.83 3690.6 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KUIN PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021