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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KSRC METAR Searcy Muni Apt AR Lat:35.2117 Long:-91.7369 Elev:266 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 23.00 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 21.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 39.20 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 37.40 15.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 46.40 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 36.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 46.40 23.00 1.98 0.00 0.0 1 8 46.90 41.00 1.82 0.00 0.0 1 9 45.00 41.00 0.02 0.00 0.0 1 10 59.00 42.10 0.14 2.97 3.0 1 11 64.40 28.40 2.50 4.04 7.0 1 12 37.40 24.10 0.18 0.00 7.0 1 13 34.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 14 34.00 21.00 0.01 0.00 7.0 1 15 46.40 19.00 0.01 0.00 7.0 1 16 21.90 8.10 0.17 0.00 7.0 1 17 35.60 6.10 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 18 41.00 8.60 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 19 45.00 15.80 0.00 0.00 7.0 1 20 57.90 33.80 0.00 1.99 9.0 1 21 64.40 55.40 0.00 9.90 18.9 1 22 64.00 46.00 8.90 5.82 24.7 1 23 53.60 26.10 0.00 0.56 25.3 1 24 59.00 21.20 0.00 1.91 27.2 1 25 62.60 24.10 0.00 3.17 30.4 1 26 62.60 24.80 0.00 3.20 33.6 1 27 60.10 41.00 2.23 3.32 36.9 1 28 59.00 30.20 0.00 2.21 39.1 1 29 46.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 39.1 1 30 44.60 19.00 0.00 0.00 39.1 1 31 64.90 28.40 0.00 4.23 43.3 2 1 52.00 30.00 0.00 0.26 43.6 2 2 37.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 43.6 2 3 46.90 28.40 1.67 0.00 43.6 2 4 59.00 23.00 0.00 1.96 45.6 2 5 43.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 45.6 2 6 41.00 32.00 4.73 0.00 45.6 2 7 39.20 24.10 0.11 0.00 45.6 2 8 51.80 21.00 0.00 0.19 45.7 2 9 64.90 26.10 3.77 4.09 49.8 2 10 53.60 35.60 1.45 0.70 50.5 2 11 36.00 28.40 0.36 0.00 50.5 2 12 43.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 50.5 2 13 46.90 30.00 0.05 0.00 50.5 2 14 60.80 42.10 0.65 3.74 54.3 2 15 75.90 57.00 0.07 16.45 70.7 2 16 66.20 37.00 0.06 5.48 76.2 2 17 50.00 33.80 4.78 0.00 76.2 2 18 55.40 30.00 0.01 1.08 77.3 2 19 75.90 50.00 0.07 12.95 90.2 2 20 79.00 57.20 10.49 18.10 108.3 2 21 57.20 35.60 0.00 1.83 110.2 2 22 48.20 36.00 0.00 0.00 110.2 2 23 55.40 46.00 7.98 1.86 112.0 2 24 70.00 51.10 4.47 10.55 122.6 2 25 54.00 37.40 0.00 0.86 123.4 2 26 64.40 33.80 0.00 4.43 127.8 2 27 68.00 33.80 11.20 5.90 133.7 2 28 63.00 51.80 9.47 7.40 141.1 3 1 66.20 46.00 5.44 6.87 148.0 3 2 57.90 35.60 0.00 2.08 150.1 3 3 61.00 33.10 0.00 3.06 153.2 3 4 57.90 37.40 1.01 2.17 155.3 3 5 73.40 50.00 0.86 11.70 167.0 3 6 62.60 30.20 0.00 3.48 170.5 3 7 53.60 30.20 0.00 0.61 171.1 3 8 57.90 28.40 0.00 1.79 172.9 3 9 72.00 30.20 0.00 7.21 180.1 3 10 72.00 50.00 4.84 11.00 191.1 3 11 64.90 39.00 0.00 5.14 196.3 3 12 57.20 35.60 0.00 1.83 198.1 3 13 61.00 28.00 0.00 2.80 200.9 3 14 61.00 28.40 0.00 2.82 203.7 3 15 73.40 33.80 0.00 8.21 211.9 3 16 70.00 48.20 0.00 9.32 221.2 3 17 79.00 51.80 0.00 15.40 236.6 3 18 55.40 44.60 3.25 1.72 238.4 3 19 73.90 46.40 0.73 10.71 249.1 3 20 57.90 46.00 0.30 2.97 252.0 3 21 62.60 37.00 0.00 3.97 256.0 3 22 66.90 33.80 0.00 5.44 261.5 1st egg laying by ow females 3 23 72.00 48.00 0.00 10.25 271.7 3 24 80.60 53.10 0.00 16.85 288.6 3 25 55.90 44.10 0.00 1.88 290.4 3 26 80.60 48.00 0.00 14.51 304.9 3 27 78.80 60.10 3.60 19.45 324.4 3 28 64.90 57.00 5.79 10.95 335.3 3 29 66.00 48.20 1.43 7.35 342.7 3 30 64.90 41.00 0.00 5.40 348.1 3 31 75.90 39.20 0.00 10.12 358.2 4 1 61.00 39.00 0.00 3.50 361.7 4 2 53.60 37.40 0.01 0.74 362.4 4 3 82.40 42.80 0.00 13.93 376.4 4 4 57.90 35.10 0.00 2.05 378.4 4 5 63.00 30.20 0.05 3.63 382.1 4 6 57.20 44.60 3.33 2.48 384.5 4 7 48.00 26.60 0.05 0.00 384.5 4 8 51.80 24.80 0.00 0.20 384.7 4 9 63.00 35.10 0.00 3.98 388.7 4 10 62.60 37.40 0.00 4.01 392.7 4 11 73.90 35.60 0.00 8.66 401.4 4 12 81.00 48.20 0.00 14.78 416.2 4 13 75.20 59.00 9.67 17.10 433.3 4 14 60.80 35.10 5.62 3.12 436.4 4 15 46.60 30.00 0.00 0.00 436.4 Px 4 16 64.00 28.00 0.00 3.87 440.2 4 17 82.90 39.20 0.00 13.39 453.6 4 18 81.00 51.10 0.00 16.05 469.7 4 19 62.60 42.80 0.00 4.62 474.3 4 20 68.00 37.40 0.00 6.30 480.6 4 21 73.90 46.00 2.61 10.60 491.2 4 22 64.90 53.60 3.01 9.25 500.4 4 23 60.80 53.60 0.16 7.20 507.6 4 24 78.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 522.0 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 4 25 72.00 48.20 0.72 10.31 532.4 4 26 68.00 50.00 0.69 9.00 541.4 4 27 78.80 46.00 0.00 13.00 554.4 4 28 81.00 44.60 0.00 13.70 568.1 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4 29 70.00 48.00 0.00 9.26 577.3 4 30 79.00 44.10 0.00 12.60 589.9 5 1 82.90 51.10 0.00 17.00 606.9 5 2 86.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 628.5 5 3 80.60 66.00 1.73 23.30 651.8 5 4 75.20 64.40 0.19 19.80 671.6 5 5 82.40 57.00 0.02 19.70 691.3 5 6 88.00 53.10 0.89 20.55 711.9 5 7 89.60 55.40 0.00 22.35 734.2 5 8 89.60 62.10 0.00 25.69 759.9 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5 9 88.00 62.60 0.00 25.30 785.2 5 10 88.00 60.10 0.00 24.05 809.2 5 11 88.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 831.8 5 12 89.60 64.00 0.00 26.63 858.5 5 13 91.40 62.10 0.00 26.25 884.7 5 14 91.90 64.40 0.00 27.52 912.2 5 15 89.60 64.00 0.00 26.63 938.9 5 16 91.00 64.40 0.00 27.27 966.1 5 17 80.60 64.40 2.83 22.50 988.6 5 18 87.80 62.10 0.00 24.95 1013.6 Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 5 19 91.90 66.00 0.00 28.30 1041.9 5 20 91.90 66.20 3.29 28.39 1070.3 5 21 82.40 68.00 1.89 25.20 1095.5 5 22 89.10 64.40 0.00 26.65 1122.1 5 23 86.00 66.20 0.00 26.10 1148.2 5 24 90.00 64.90 0.00 27.21 1175.4 5 25 90.00 66.20 1.14 27.85 1203.3 5 26 89.60 69.80 0.00 29.51 1232.8 5 27 91.90 68.00 0.00 29.27 1262.1 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 5 28 93.20 69.80 0.00 30.43 1292.5 5 29 87.10 69.80 0.00 28.45 1321.0 5 30 91.90 68.00 0.00 29.27 1350.2 5 31 91.40 73.00 0.08 31.57 1381.8 6 1 95.00 71.60 0.09 31.62 1413.4 6 2 95.00 69.80 0.00 30.79 1444.2 6 3 86.00 62.10 0.00 24.05 1468.3 6 4 88.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 1491.8 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 6 5 90.00 62.60 0.00 26.07 1517.8 6 6 91.90 62.10 0.00 26.39 1544.2 6 7 93.20 64.40 0.00 27.84 1572.1 6 8 93.20 66.20 0.00 28.71 1600.8 6 9 93.90 66.20 0.00 28.87 1629.6 6 10 93.90 66.20 0.00 28.87 1658.5 6 11 91.40 69.10 0.00 29.68 1688.2 6 12 91.90 71.60 0.01 31.01 1719.2 6 13 96.10 69.80 0.00 30.98 1750.2 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 6 14 96.80 69.80 0.00 31.09 1781.3 6 15 95.00 71.60 0.00 31.62 1812.9 6 16 96.80 71.10 0.00 31.68 1844.6 6 17 93.90 73.00 0.00 32.08 1876.6 6 18 93.90 71.60 0.00 31.42 1908.1 6 19 91.90 69.10 0.00 29.80 1937.9 6 20 84.90 71.10 3.14 28.00 1965.9 6 21 91.40 69.10 0.00 29.68 1995.5 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 6 22 91.90 64.40 0.00 27.52 2023.1 6 23 89.60 69.10 1.70 29.16 2052.2 6 24 91.90 71.60 0.05 31.01 2083.2 6 25 91.90 69.10 0.00 29.80 2113.0 6 26 90.30 77.00 0.00 33.24 2146.3 Px 6 27 71.00 66.40 0.00 18.70 2165.0 Px Pn 6 28 91.40 70.80 0.00 30.50 2195.5 Px Pn 6 29 96.80 70.00 0.00 31.18 2226.7 6 30 98.60 75.00 0.00 33.62 2260.3 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 7 1 99.00 73.40 0.00 32.99 2293.3 7 2 96.80 73.40 0.00 32.71 2326.0 7 3 95.00 75.00 0.00 33.17 2359.1 7 4 98.60 75.00 0.00 33.62 2392.8 7 5 99.00 77.00 0.00 34.50 2427.3 7 6 100.40 71.10 7.37 32.16 2459.4 7 7 91.40 73.00 0.00 31.57 2491.0 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 7 8 89.60 73.40 0.06 31.28 2522.3 7 9 93.20 73.00 0.00 31.95 2554.2 7 10 93.90 73.00 0.00 32.08 2586.3 7 11 99.00 73.00 0.00 32.81 2619.1 7 12 98.60 75.00 0.00 33.62 2652.7 7 13 99.00 75.00 0.00 33.67 2686.4 7 14 100.40 75.20 0.00 33.89 2720.3 7 15 100.90 73.40 3.03 33.19 2753.5 Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 7 16 84.90 73.00 3.96 28.95 2782.4 7 17 98.60 71.60 0.72 32.15 2814.6 7 18 82.90 73.00 0.42 27.95 2842.5 7 19 96.80 73.40 0.00 32.71 2875.3 7 20 96.80 73.00 0.96 32.53 2907.8 7 21 96.80 71.60 2.10 31.91 2939.7 7 22 93.90 66.00 0.00 28.77 2968.5 7 23 88.00 68.00 0.00 28.00 2996.5 Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. 7 24 93.90 66.00 0.00 28.77 3025.2 7 25 95.00 69.80 0.00 30.79 3056.0 7 26 96.80 69.10 0.51 30.77 3086.8 7 27 91.90 69.80 0.05 30.14 3116.9 7 28 84.20 66.20 0.00 25.20 3142.1 7 29 88.00 66.20 0.00 27.10 3169.2 7 30 81.00 68.00 0.08 24.50 3193.7 7 31 88.00 66.00 0.00 27.00 3220.7 8 1 90.00 62.10 0.00 25.82 3246.6 8 2 93.20 62.10 0.00 26.73 3273.3 8 3 96.80 64.00 0.00 28.41 3301.7 8 4 95.00 66.00 0.00 29.00 3330.7 8 5 93.90 73.00 0.00 32.08 3362.8 8 6 98.10 71.10 0.00 31.87 3394.6 8 7 98.60 68.00 0.00 30.55 3425.2 8 8 84.20 69.80 2.46 27.00 3452.2 8 9 84.20 66.20 3.37 25.20 3477.4 8 10 93.90 66.00 0.00 28.77 3506.2 8 11 96.80 69.80 0.00 31.09 3537.3 8 12 93.20 71.60 0.00 31.29 3568.5 8 13 87.80 71.10 0.00 29.45 3598.0 8 14 84.90 71.60 0.00 28.25 3626.2 8 15 88.00 71.60 0.23 29.80 3656.0 8 16 96.80 75.00 0.00 33.42 3689.5 8 17 80.60 69.80 0.00 25.20 3714.7 8 18 91.40 71.10 0.32 30.65 3745.3 8 19 86.00 71.10 4.67 28.55 3773.9 8 20 88.00 71.10 2.82 29.55 3803.4 8 21 82.90 66.20 0.00 24.55 3828.0 8 22 86.00 64.40 0.00 25.20 3853.2 8 23 84.90 64.00 0.00 24.45 3877.6 8 24 89.60 64.00 0.00 26.63 3904.2 8 25 93.90 69.10 0.00 30.25 3934.5 8 26 93.20 71.10 0.00 31.05 3965.5 8 27 91.90 71.60 0.00 31.01 3996.5 8 28 93.00 73.00 0.00 31.91 4028.5 8 29 90.00 71.60 0.00 30.52 4059.0 8 30 91.90 71.10 0.68 30.77 4089.7 8 31 91.90 69.80 0.12 30.14 4119.9 9 1 91.40 71.10 0.00 30.65 4150.5 9 2 91.40 71.60 0.17 30.89 4181.4 9 3 91.40 71.10 0.00 30.65 4212.1 9 4 91.90 70.00 0.00 30.24 4242.3 9 5 91.40 69.80 0.24 30.02 4272.3 9 6 84.90 73.40 0.66 29.15 4301.5 9 7 81.00 71.10 4.34 26.05 4327.5 9 8 87.80 69.10 10.26 28.45 4356.0 9 9 73.40 64.00 0.01 18.70 4374.7 9 10 79.00 62.10 0.00 20.55 4395.2 9 11 77.00 62.60 0.00 19.80 4415.0 9 12 79.00 66.20 0.09 22.60 4437.6 9 13 90.00 64.40 0.00 26.96 4464.6 9 14 91.90 69.80 0.00 30.14 4494.7 9 15 91.40 69.80 0.00 30.02 4524.7 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSRC PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021