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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: sunflower stem weevil
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Merrill et al 2010
Calculation method: simp avg/grow
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 110 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: W. Great Plains
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 472 DD after biofix 5% adult emerg. from stalks; begin scouting adults
2. 972 DD after biofix 50% adult emerg. from stalks
3. 1183 DD after biofix 75% adult emerg. from stalks
4. 1399 DD after biofix 90% adult emerg. from stalks
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KTUS METAR Tucson Int Apt AZ Lat:32.1314 Long:-110.9564 Elev:2546
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 55.90 42.80 0.22 8.35 8.3 * START *
1 2 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.10 14.4
1 3 63.00 37.40 0.00 9.20 23.6
1 4 70.00 44.10 0.00 16.05 39.7
1 5 70.00 44.10 0.00 16.05 55.7
1 6 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 68.3
1 7 72.00 37.00 0.00 13.50 81.8
1 8 81.00 44.10 0.00 21.55 103.3
1 9 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 127.3
1 10 72.00 45.00 0.00 17.50 144.8
1 11 71.60 43.00 0.00 16.30 161.1
1 12 73.90 42.10 0.00 17.00 178.1
1 13 70.00 42.10 0.00 15.05 193.1
1 14 70.00 50.00 0.32 19.00 212.1
1 15 53.60 48.20 0.25 9.90 222.0
1 16 60.80 46.00 0.10 12.40 234.4
1 17 64.40 39.20 0.00 10.80 245.2
1 18 63.00 41.00 0.00 11.00 256.2
1 19 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 266.1
1 20 57.20 48.20 0.25 11.70 277.8
1 21 57.20 41.00 1.83 8.10 285.9
1 22 64.40 37.40 0.00 9.90 295.9
1 23 69.80 44.60 0.14 16.20 312.1
1 24 54.00 39.00 0.22 5.50 317.6
1 25 52.00 32.00 0.00 1.00 318.6
1 26 57.20 28.40 0.00 1.80 320.4
1 27 55.90 28.90 0.00 1.40 321.8
1 28 62.60 28.40 0.00 4.50 326.2
1 29 72.00 30.20 0.00 10.10 336.4
1 30 75.90 39.00 0.00 16.45 352.8
1 31 75.20 41.00 0.00 17.10 369.9
2 1 77.00 42.80 0.00 18.90 388.8
2 2 75.20 42.10 0.00 17.65 406.5
2 3 75.90 44.10 0.00 19.00 425.5
2 4 77.00 42.80 0.00 18.90 444.4
2 5 79.00 46.40 0.00 21.70 466.1
2 6 70.00 48.20 0.00 18.10 484.2 5% adult emerg. from stalks; begin scouting adults
2 7 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 501.2
2 8 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 522.0
2 9 86.00 46.00 0.00 25.00 547.0
2 10 89.10 48.20 0.00 27.65 574.6
2 11 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 601.9
2 12 73.00 51.80 0.01 21.40 623.2
2 13 68.00 51.80 0.01 18.90 642.1
2 14 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 660.9
2 15 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 680.5
2 16 73.90 41.00 0.00 16.45 696.9
2 17 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 716.9
2 18 66.20 50.00 0.05 17.10 734.0
2 19 57.90 48.00 0.10 11.95 746.0
2 20 68.00 48.00 0.01 17.00 763.0
2 21 77.00 44.10 0.00 19.55 782.5
2 22 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 806.8
2 23 64.90 46.00 0.00 14.45 821.3
2 24 62.60 35.10 0.00 7.85 829.1
2 25 66.90 35.60 0.00 10.25 839.4
2 26 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 856.5
2 27 70.00 42.10 0.00 15.05 871.5
2 28 68.00 48.20 0.03 17.10 888.6
3 1 71.10 39.20 0.00 14.15 902.8
3 2 79.00 39.20 0.00 18.10 920.9
3 3 75.90 59.00 0.00 26.45 947.4
3 4 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 972.4 50% adult emerg. from stalks
3 5 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 996.9
3 6 68.00 46.00 0.00 16.00 1012.9
3 7 79.00 39.20 0.00 18.10 1031.0
3 8 87.80 46.00 0.00 25.90 1056.9
3 9 89.60 50.00 0.00 28.80 1085.7
3 10 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 1117.2
3 11 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 1149.5
3 12 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 1180.0
3 13 91.40 53.60 0.00 31.50 1211.5 75% adult emerg. from stalks
3 14 91.40 55.40 0.00 32.40 1243.9
3 15 91.40 57.00 0.00 33.20 1277.1
3 16 91.40 57.20 0.00 33.30 1310.4
3 17 91.90 57.20 0.00 33.55 1343.9
3 18 93.90 60.10 0.00 36.00 1379.9
3 19 93.90 59.00 0.00 35.45 1415.4 90% adult emerg. from stalks
3 20 90.00 64.00 0.00 36.00 1451.4
3 21 91.90 62.10 0.00 36.00 1487.4
3 22 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 1517.3
3 23 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1536.2
3 24 75.20 44.60 0.00 18.90 1555.1
3 25 82.00 46.40 0.00 23.20 1578.3
3 26 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1602.4
3 27 80.60 51.80 0.21 25.20 1627.6
3 28 71.60 51.10 1.18 20.35 1647.9
3 29 79.00 46.40 0.00 21.70 1669.6
3 30 87.80 51.80 0.00 28.80 1698.4
3 31 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1718.0
4 1 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1733.3
4 2 75.90 42.10 0.00 18.00 1751.3
4 3 81.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 1776.7
4 4 80.20 50.00 0.00 24.10 1800.8 Hx Hn
4 5 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 1833.2
4 6 91.40 51.80 0.00 30.60 1863.8
4 7 90.00 57.20 0.00 32.60 1896.4
4 8 91.90 55.40 0.00 32.65 1929.0
4 9 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1955.1
4 10 84.90 48.20 0.00 25.55 1980.7
4 11 91.00 51.10 0.00 30.05 2010.7
4 12 91.00 55.00 0.00 32.00 2042.7
4 13 93.20 57.20 0.00 34.20 2076.9
4 14 90.00 55.90 0.00 31.95 2108.8
4 15 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 2139.3
4 16 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 2171.0
4 17 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 2202.7
4 18 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 2236.2
4 19 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 2269.7
4 20 90.00 57.20 0.00 32.60 2302.3
4 21 91.90 53.60 0.00 31.75 2334.0
4 22 95.00 57.00 0.00 35.00 2369.0
4 23 98.60 60.80 0.00 38.70 2407.7
4 24 93.20 64.00 0.00 37.60 2445.3
4 25 82.90 66.20 0.00 33.55 2478.9
4 26 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 2508.0
4 27 90.00 64.40 0.00 36.20 2544.2
4 28 82.40 63.00 0.00 31.70 2575.9
4 29 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 2598.2
4 30 84.00 51.10 0.00 26.55 2624.7
5 1 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 2656.0
5 2 91.90 57.20 0.00 33.55 2689.6
5 3 96.10 62.60 0.00 38.35 2727.9
5 4 100.40 62.60 0.00 40.50 2768.4
5 5 104.00 66.00 0.00 44.00 2812.4
5 6 93.90 69.80 0.00 40.85 2853.3
5 7 81.00 62.10 0.00 30.55 2883.8
5 8 77.00 55.00 0.02 25.00 2908.8
5 9 68.00 51.80 0.11 18.90 2927.7
5 10 73.90 48.20 0.00 20.05 2947.8
5 11 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 2977.5
5 12 96.80 60.80 0.00 37.80 3015.3
5 13 97.00 63.00 0.00 39.00 3054.3
5 14 91.40 62.10 0.00 35.75 3090.0
5 15 87.80 62.10 0.00 33.95 3124.0
5 16 73.90 57.20 0.00 24.55 3148.5
5 17 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 3176.4
5 18 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3206.1
5 19 82.90 57.20 0.00 29.05 3235.2
5 20 91.40 53.60 0.00 31.50 3266.7
5 21 97.00 59.00 0.00 37.00 3303.7
5 22 99.00 64.00 0.00 40.50 3344.2
5 23 100.90 66.20 0.00 42.55 3386.8
5 24 102.90 68.00 0.00 44.45 3431.2
5 25 96.80 75.20 0.00 45.00 3476.2
5 26 96.80 69.80 0.00 42.30 3518.5
5 27 96.80 60.80 0.00 37.80 3556.3
5 28 99.00 62.60 0.00 39.80 3596.1
5 29 100.90 64.00 0.00 41.45 3637.6
5 30 99.00 69.10 0.00 43.05 3680.6
5 31 99.00 75.20 0.00 46.10 3726.7
6 1 95.00 68.00 0.00 40.50 3767.2
6 2 98.60 62.60 0.00 39.60 3806.8
6 3 104.00 69.80 0.00 45.90 3852.7
6 4 104.00 71.10 0.00 46.55 3899.3
6 5 104.00 73.00 0.00 47.50 3946.8
6 6 105.80 73.40 0.00 48.60 3995.4
6 7 107.10 75.20 0.00 50.15 4045.5
6 8 102.20 77.00 0.00 48.60 4094.1
6 9 102.90 71.60 0.00 46.25 4140.4
6 10 102.20 71.10 0.00 45.65 4186.0
6 11 98.60 66.00 0.00 41.30 4227.3
6 12 96.80 69.10 0.00 41.95 4269.2
6 13 95.00 62.60 0.00 37.80 4307.1
6 14 102.90 61.00 0.00 40.95 4348.0
6 15 106.00 64.00 0.00 44.00 4392.0
6 16 105.80 68.00 0.00 45.90 4437.9
6 17 105.80 69.80 0.00 46.80 4484.7
6 18 108.00 71.10 0.00 48.55 4533.2
6 19 115.00 73.00 0.00 50.50 4583.8
6 20 116.10 87.10 0.00 57.55 4641.3
6 21 115.00 82.00 0.00 55.00 4696.3
6 22 109.40 86.00 0.00 56.70 4753.0
6 23 109.90 84.00 0.00 55.95 4808.9
6 24 113.00 82.40 0.00 55.20 4864.1
6 25 111.00 87.10 0.00 57.55 4921.7
6 26 107.60 82.40 0.00 54.00 4975.7
6 27 107.60 80.10 0.00 52.85 5028.6
6 28 106.00 81.00 0.00 52.50 5081.1
6 29 105.10 78.80 0.00 50.95 5132.0
6 30 106.00 69.80 0.00 46.90 5178.9
Forecast using: 1910 KTUS PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat32.1314 Long-110.9564 DD50
sunflower stem weevil Merrill et al 2010Location: 2017 KTUS Tucson Int Apt 1910 KTUS PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 2-6-17 | 484 | 5% adult emerg. from stalks; begin scouting adults |
| 3-4-17 | 972 | 50% adult emerg. from stalks |
| 3-13-17 | 1211 | 75% adult emerg. from stalks |
| 3-19-17 | 1415 | 90% adult emerg. from stalks |
