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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: Pine Tree Lappet Moth [pine trees] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 45 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 86 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 7 0 Model validation status: draft model based on several studies mainly from Europe Region of known use: Dev. for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 661 DDs after Jan 1: In Northern/colder regions: 1st adult flight from late instar OW larvae 2. 1034 DDs after Jan 1: 1st adult flight (most regions) 3. 1558 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egghatch from adult egglaying (most regions) 4. 1752 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. peak flight (most regions; end of flight colder regions) 5. 2114 DDs after Jan 1: Early-mid larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct. 1) 6. 2470 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. end of adult flight (except colder regions) 7. 2669 DDs after Jan 1: Mid-late larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct 1) 8. 4074 DDs after Jan 1: 2nd gen. adult emerg. (only in warmest regions) 9. 4598 DDs after Jan 1: 1st eggs hatch from 2nd gen. adult egglaying (if any) ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KLBB METAR Lubbock Int Apt TX Lat:33.6672 Long:-101.8214 Elev:3281 mn day max min precip DD45 CUMDD45 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 66.90 30.00 0.38 7.70 7.7 * START * 1 2 63.00 37.40 0.69 7.02 14.7 1 3 50.00 30.00 0.00 1.09 15.8 1 4 48.90 26.60 0.00 0.71 16.5 1 5 44.60 15.10 0.00 0.00 16.5 1 6 23.00 10.90 0.02 0.00 16.5 1 7 37.90 6.80 0.00 0.00 16.5 1 8 59.00 24.80 0.00 3.98 20.5 1 9 81.00 33.10 0.00 14.64 35.1 1 10 66.90 46.40 0.00 11.65 46.8 1 11 80.60 42.10 0.00 16.69 63.5 1 12 67.00 37.00 0.00 8.80 72.3 1 13 39.90 30.00 0.04 0.00 72.3 1 14 34.00 32.00 0.76 0.00 72.3 1 15 40.00 32.00 0.75 0.00 72.3 1 16 57.20 33.80 0.00 3.98 76.3 1 17 55.40 33.10 0.07 3.18 79.4 1 18 57.20 41.00 0.32 4.97 84.4 1 19 64.90 39.20 0.00 8.25 92.6 1 20 63.00 39.00 0.01 7.31 100.0 1 21 62.10 39.20 0.06 6.92 106.9 1 22 61.00 35.10 0.00 5.76 112.6 1 23 73.90 30.90 0.00 10.95 123.6 1 24 66.20 36.00 0.00 8.25 131.8 1 25 48.20 30.00 0.00 0.58 132.4 1 26 48.90 21.00 0.00 0.63 133.1 1 27 46.40 24.10 0.00 0.15 133.2 1 28 53.60 21.00 0.00 1.93 135.1 1 29 64.40 24.80 0.00 6.10 141.2 1 30 70.00 28.00 0.00 8.81 150.0 1 31 75.00 32.00 0.00 11.64 161.7 2 1 63.00 35.60 0.00 6.73 168.4 2 2 45.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 168.4 2 3 46.40 23.00 0.00 0.15 168.6 2 4 57.20 33.80 0.00 3.98 172.5 2 5 79.00 32.00 0.00 13.49 186.0 2 6 77.00 37.00 0.00 13.55 199.6 2 7 75.90 42.10 0.00 14.36 213.9 2 8 80.60 41.00 0.00 16.34 230.3 2 9 69.80 32.00 0.00 9.26 239.5 2 10 88.00 44.60 0.00 21.13 260.7 2 11 91.40 42.80 0.00 21.53 282.2 2 12 66.90 42.10 0.00 9.93 292.1 2 13 44.60 33.80 0.87 0.00 292.1 2 14 39.20 35.60 0.02 0.00 292.1 2 15 57.20 30.20 0.00 3.67 295.8 2 16 66.00 28.40 0.00 7.13 302.9 2 17 73.40 39.00 0.00 12.28 315.2 2 18 71.60 33.80 0.00 10.37 325.6 2 19 70.00 46.00 0.00 13.00 338.6 2 20 71.60 39.20 0.00 11.46 350.0 2 21 77.00 32.00 0.00 12.56 362.6 2 22 84.90 44.10 0.00 19.56 382.1 2 23 80.60 46.40 0.00 18.50 400.6 2 24 57.90 30.00 0.00 3.93 404.6 2 25 53.10 24.80 0.00 1.90 406.5 2 26 68.00 30.20 0.00 8.21 414.7 2 27 75.20 32.00 0.00 11.73 426.4 2 28 75.90 52.00 0.00 18.95 445.4 3 1 57.90 28.40 0.00 3.81 449.2 3 2 63.00 26.60 0.00 5.69 454.9 3 3 63.00 37.40 0.00 7.02 461.9 3 4 69.80 37.40 0.00 10.20 472.1 3 5 80.60 51.10 0.00 20.85 492.9 3 6 82.40 52.00 0.00 22.20 515.1 3 7 62.60 33.80 0.00 6.30 521.4 3 8 80.60 39.00 0.00 15.78 537.2 3 9 87.80 55.00 0.00 26.22 563.4 3 10 64.00 42.10 0.00 8.50 571.9 3 11 64.90 39.20 0.01 8.25 580.2 3 12 63.00 35.10 0.00 6.65 586.8 3 13 64.90 37.40 0.00 7.90 594.7 3 14 79.00 37.00 0.00 14.51 609.2 3 15 70.00 33.80 0.00 9.64 618.9 3 16 87.80 50.00 0.00 23.73 642.6 3 17 87.80 44.60 0.00 21.06 663.7 In Northern/colder regions: 1st adult flight from late instar OW larvae 3 18 82.90 51.80 0.00 22.35 686.0 3 19 89.60 53.10 0.00 25.87 711.9 3 20 78.10 55.40 0.00 21.75 733.6 3 21 91.90 54.00 0.00 26.95 760.6 3 22 75.20 46.40 0.00 15.80 776.4 3 23 81.00 55.90 0.13 23.45 799.8 3 24 68.00 45.00 0.00 11.50 811.3 3 25 73.90 39.20 0.00 12.57 823.9 3 26 79.00 46.40 0.00 17.70 841.6 3 27 75.20 37.00 0.00 12.69 854.3 3 28 73.90 51.80 0.50 17.85 872.1 3 29 53.60 43.00 0.04 3.68 875.8 3 30 78.80 37.40 0.00 14.51 890.3 3 31 80.60 44.60 0.00 17.62 907.9 4 1 53.60 44.10 0.01 3.97 911.9 4 2 54.00 42.10 0.00 3.67 915.6 4 3 81.00 39.20 0.00 16.03 931.6 4 4 73.40 36.60 0.00 11.74 943.4 Hx Hn 4 5 64.90 37.00 0.00 7.83 951.2 4 6 75.20 39.00 0.00 13.15 964.3 4 7 82.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 984.3 4 8 93.20 53.60 0.00 27.07 1011.4 4 9 89.60 57.20 0.00 27.88 1039.3 1st adult flight (most regions) 4 10 73.40 51.10 0.00 17.25 1056.5 4 11 75.90 46.00 0.00 15.95 1072.5 4 12 69.80 51.80 0.81 15.80 1088.3 4 13 73.40 53.60 0.59 18.50 1106.8 4 14 75.90 57.20 0.00 21.55 1128.3 4 15 82.90 60.80 0.00 26.85 1155.2 4 16 84.20 62.10 0.00 28.15 1183.3 4 17 82.40 51.80 0.01 22.10 1205.4 4 18 84.90 53.60 0.00 24.25 1229.7 4 19 91.40 60.10 0.00 29.78 1259.5 4 20 75.90 57.00 0.00 21.45 1280.9 4 21 88.00 50.00 0.00 23.80 1304.7 4 22 66.90 44.60 0.00 10.77 1315.5 4 23 71.60 39.00 0.00 11.41 1326.9 4 24 93.90 48.20 0.00 24.63 1351.5 4 25 88.00 60.80 0.00 29.17 1380.7 4 26 69.80 46.40 0.00 13.10 1393.8 4 27 89.60 41.00 0.00 20.37 1414.2 4 28 84.90 51.10 0.38 23.00 1437.2 4 29 54.00 37.00 0.13 2.96 1440.1 4 30 64.90 35.60 0.00 7.59 1447.7 5 1 79.00 39.20 0.00 15.05 1462.8 5 2 93.00 48.00 0.00 24.31 1487.1 5 3 73.40 51.10 0.00 17.25 1504.3 5 4 75.20 42.80 0.00 14.24 1518.6 5 5 84.20 44.60 0.00 19.42 1538.0 5 6 91.40 48.20 0.00 23.98 1562.0 1st egghatch from adult egglaying (most regions) 5 7 89.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 1588.8 5 8 78.80 57.00 0.00 22.90 1611.7 5 9 80.60 62.60 0.45 26.60 1638.3 5 10 82.90 59.00 3.81 25.95 1664.2 5 11 77.00 51.80 0.00 19.40 1683.6 5 12 79.00 48.90 0.00 18.95 1702.6 5 13 87.80 55.90 0.00 26.67 1729.3 5 14 97.00 57.20 0.02 29.57 1758.8 Approx. peak flight (most regions; end of flight colder regions) 5 15 93.90 62.10 0.00 31.28 1790.1 5 16 93.20 60.10 0.00 30.19 1820.3 5 17 86.00 57.00 0.00 26.50 1846.8 5 18 91.40 63.00 0.00 31.18 1878.0 5 19 82.40 53.10 0.00 22.75 1900.7 5 20 78.80 46.00 0.00 17.40 1918.1 5 21 78.10 50.00 0.00 19.05 1937.2 5 22 80.10 53.10 0.00 21.60 1958.8 5 23 72.00 48.20 0.11 15.10 1973.9 5 24 89.60 46.00 0.00 22.36 1996.2 5 25 102.20 57.90 0.00 30.72 2027.0 5 26 96.80 59.00 0.00 30.37 2057.3 5 27 98.60 64.00 0.00 32.94 2090.3 5 28 84.90 55.00 0.00 24.95 2115.2 Early-mid larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct. 1) 5 29 87.80 53.10 0.00 25.28 2140.5 5 30 88.00 55.00 0.00 26.29 2166.8 5 31 87.80 60.10 0.00 28.75 2195.5 6 1 82.90 60.10 0.00 26.50 2222.0 6 2 84.90 60.80 0.04 27.85 2249.9 6 3 86.00 62.60 0.03 29.30 2279.2 6 4 87.10 60.10 0.00 28.51 2307.7 6 5 91.40 59.00 0.00 29.25 2336.9 6 6 93.00 62.10 0.00 31.10 2368.0 6 7 90.00 62.10 0.08 30.40 2398.4 6 8 91.40 64.00 0.20 31.66 2430.1 6 9 93.20 64.00 1.67 32.04 2462.1 6 10 100.40 71.60 0.00 36.42 2498.6 Approx. end of adult flight (except colder regions) 6 11 100.40 71.10 0.00 36.21 2534.8 6 12 100.40 71.10 0.00 36.21 2571.0 6 13 100.90 69.80 0.00 35.72 2606.7 6 14 100.90 68.00 0.00 34.97 2641.7 6 15 100.40 69.80 0.23 35.67 2677.3 Mid-late larval instars seek hibernacula (if after Oct 1) 6 16 102.20 71.10 0.00 36.37 2713.7 6 17 111.90 73.00 0.00 37.69 2751.4 6 18 89.60 68.00 0.00 33.17 2784.6 6 19 81.00 64.40 0.01 27.70 2812.3 6 20 98.10 73.00 0.00 36.78 2849.0 6 21 99.00 71.10 0.20 36.07 2885.1 6 22 99.00 69.10 0.00 35.23 2920.3 6 23 99.00 73.00 0.01 36.86 2957.2 6 24 82.40 62.10 0.00 27.25 2984.5 6 25 89.60 66.20 0.85 32.29 3016.7 6 26 82.90 60.10 5.54 26.50 3043.2 6 27 90.00 66.20 0.00 32.39 3075.6 6 28 96.80 72.00 0.00 36.22 3111.9 6 29 107.60 71.10 0.00 36.77 3148.6 6 30 100.40 69.10 1.00 35.38 3184.0 Forecast using: 1910 KLBB PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat33.6672 Long-101.8214 DD50