Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather dataorange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 1.5 * START *
1 2 44.60 28.40 0.01 0.74 2.3
1 3 43.00 37.00 0.03 0.51 2.8
1 4 48.90 35.10 0.11 2.72 5.5
1 5 51.80 42.80 0.02 6.30 11.8
1 6 51.10 39.00 0.12 4.40 16.2
1 7 46.90 35.10 0.24 1.88 18.1
1 8 53.60 41.00 0.54 6.30 24.4
1 9 53.60 37.00 1.80 5.16 29.5
1 10 51.80 30.20 0.13 3.44 33.0
1 11 48.20 42.10 0.49 4.15 37.1
1 12 51.80 44.10 0.12 6.95 44.1
1 13 50.00 44.10 0.22 6.05 50.1
1 14 52.00 39.90 0.35 5.09 55.2
1 15 50.00 44.60 0.10 6.30 61.5
1 16 51.80 37.00 0.11 4.31 65.8
1 17 50.00 44.10 0.03 6.05 71.9
1 18 46.90 39.20 0.29 2.43 74.3
1 19 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.37 74.7
1 20 39.90 33.80 0.00 0.00 74.7
1 21 46.90 30.00 0.08 1.54 76.2
1 22 48.20 30.20 0.00 2.02 78.2
1 23 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 81.0
1 24 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 84.4
1 25 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 88.0
1 26 46.40 42.80 0.01 3.60 91.6
1 27 52.00 44.10 0.04 7.05 98.7
1 28 48.20 37.90 0.05 2.80 101.5
1 29 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 101.5
1 30 39.90 17.10 0.00 0.00 101.5
1 31 42.80 21.20 0.00 0.22 101.7
2 1 48.90 24.80 0.00 1.99 103.7
2 2 48.90 23.00 0.00 1.91 105.6
2 3 53.60 32.00 0.11 4.39 110.0
2 4 48.90 39.90 0.10 3.57 113.6
2 5 51.80 42.10 0.13 5.95 119.5
2 6 51.80 41.00 0.04 5.40 124.9
2 7 51.80 41.00 0.11 5.40 130.3
2 8 52.00 32.00 0.00 3.70 134.0
2 9 55.40 30.20 0.03 4.95 139.0
2 10 55.40 42.10 0.09 7.75 146.7
2 11 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 150.3
2 12 51.80 28.40 0.01 3.29 153.6
2 13 48.20 35.10 0.20 2.42 156.0
2 14 44.60 28.00 0.71 0.73 156.7
2 15 44.60 26.10 0.00 0.69 157.4
2 16 48.20 28.00 0.00 1.90 159.3
2 17 51.80 39.00 0.01 4.74 164.1
2 18 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 168.4
2 19 51.80 37.00 0.00 4.31 172.7
2 20 52.00 46.00 0.03 8.00 180.7
2 21 50.00 37.90 0.16 3.63 184.3
2 22 39.20 30.00 3.43 0.00 184.3
2 23 30.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 184.3
2 24 39.20 18.00 0.00 0.00 184.3
2 25 55.50 17.10 0.00 3.95 188.3 Px
2 26 56.90 37.20 0.10 6.77 195.0 Px Pn
2 27 42.80 35.60 0.27 0.39 195.4
2 28 39.20 35.60 0.15 0.00 195.4
3 1 48.90 26.60 0.00 2.08 197.5
3 2 48.20 35.60 0.03 2.48 200.0
3 3 46.90 32.00 0.18 1.65 201.6
3 4 48.20 39.00 0.21 3.00 204.6
3 5 45.00 32.00 0.09 0.97 205.6
3 6 48.00 35.60 0.24 2.39 208.0
3 7 48.90 33.10 0.24 2.51 210.5
3 8 45.00 33.10 0.03 1.02 211.5
3 9 46.40 39.20 0.29 2.19 213.7
3 10 50.00 37.00 0.11 3.47 217.2
3 11 54.00 33.80 0.00 4.80 222.0
3 12 45.00 30.00 0.40 0.90 222.9
3 13 46.90 39.90 1.07 2.59 225.5
3 14 54.00 32.00 0.03 4.56 230.1
3 15 52.00 34.00 0.02 3.94 234.0
3 16 60.80 28.00 0.00 7.03 241.0
3 17 63.00 30.00 0.00 8.30 249.3
3 18 68.00 34.00 0.00 11.38 260.7
3 19 57.90 39.00 0.19 7.73 268.4
3 20 50.00 44.10 0.05 6.05 274.5
3 21 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 284.9
3 22 64.90 33.10 0.00 9.72 294.7
3 23 50.00 41.00 0.18 4.50 299.2
3 24 46.40 35.60 0.37 1.72 300.9
3 25 48.90 35.60 0.04 2.78 303.7
3 26 50.00 34.00 0.11 3.07 306.7
3 27 55.40 33.10 0.05 5.33 312.0
3 28 52.00 37.90 0.18 4.58 316.6
3 29 57.90 35.10 0.00 6.81 323.4
3 30 54.00 44.60 0.13 8.30 331.7
3 31 50.00 46.00 0.28 7.00 338.7
4 1 51.10 42.10 0.16 5.60 344.3
4 2 45.00 35.60 0.19 1.16 345.5
4 3 48.20 37.00 0.10 2.66 348.2
4 4 50.00 39.00 0.14 3.87 352.0
4 5 53.10 39.90 0.17 5.64 357.7
4 6 51.10 45.00 0.69 7.05 364.7
4 7 57.90 44.10 0.13 10.00 374.7
4 8 57.20 46.00 0.04 10.60 385.3
4 9 55.90 48.00 0.69 10.95 396.3
4 10 53.60 42.80 0.88 7.20 403.5
4 11 54.00 42.10 0.12 7.05 410.5
4 12 44.60 37.00 1.76 1.11 411.6
4 13 68.00 34.30 0.00 11.44 423.1 Px Pn
4 14 70.40 38.90 0.00 13.88 437.0 Px Pn
4 15 68.10 48.40 0.00 17.25 454.2 Px Pn
4 16 69.70 39.40 0.00 13.71 467.9 Px Pn
4 17 75.20 37.10 0.00 15.68 483.6 Px Pn
4 18 55.80 48.10 0.00 10.95 494.5 Px Pn
4 19 62.40 45.50 0.00 12.95 507.5 Px Pn
4 20 70.00 42.10 0.00 15.05 522.5 Px Pn
4 21 62.20 48.40 0.00 14.30 536.8 Px Pn
4 22 61.00 48.40 0.00 13.70 550.5 Px Pn
4 23 62.40 48.70 0.00 14.55 565.1 Px Pn
4 24 60.90 50.20 0.00 14.55 579.6 Px Pn
4 25 68.40 47.30 0.00 16.85 596.5 Px Pn
4 26 67.00 40.90 0.00 12.95 609.4 Px Pn
4 27 68.00 48.40 0.00 17.20 626.6 Px Pn
4 28 73.70 47.50 0.00 19.60 646.2 Px Pn
4 29 72.40 53.60 0.00 22.00 668.2 Px Pn
4 30 65.80 48.80 0.00 16.30 684.5 Px Pn
5 1 63.10 39.40 0.00 10.43 695.0 Px Pn
5 2 57.90 50.30 0.00 13.10 708.1 Px Pn
5 3 58.60 42.90 0.00 9.75 717.8 Px Pn
5 4 70.00 37.80 0.00 13.33 731.2 Px Pn
5 5 74.40 49.10 0.00 20.75 751.9 Px Pn
5 6 64.60 48.30 0.00 15.45 767.4 Px Pn
5 7 75.00 38.40 0.00 16.00 783.3 Px Pn
5 8 81.90 51.10 0.00 25.50 808.8 Px Pn
5 9 87.90 56.30 0.00 31.10 839.9 Px Pn
5 10 87.80 56.50 0.00 31.15 871.1 Px Pn Peak pheromone trap catch
5 11 69.90 51.20 0.00 19.55 890.6 Px Pn
5 12 64.40 52.10 0.00 17.25 907.9 Px Pn
5 13 62.90 51.90 0.00 16.40 924.3 Px Pn
5 14 56.90 53.20 0.00 14.05 938.3 Px Pn
5 15 67.40 53.10 0.00 19.25 957.6 Px Pn Peak female adult emergence
5 16 69.90 54.00 0.00 20.95 978.5 Px Pn
5 17 69.60 50.50 0.00 19.05 997.6 Px Pn
5 18 82.90 60.80 0.00 30.85 1028.4 Peak egg laying
5 19 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 1057.1
5 20 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 1085.1
5 21 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 1103.1
5 22 64.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 1119.6
5 23 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1133.1
5 24 73.90 46.00 0.00 18.95 1152.0
5 25 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 1178.8
5 26 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 1207.0
5 27 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 1229.5
5 28 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 1249.5
5 29 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 1273.5 Peak egg hatch
5 30 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1291.5
5 31 64.90 44.60 0.00 13.75 1305.2
6 1 72.00 42.10 0.00 16.05 1321.3
6 2 75.90 44.60 0.00 19.25 1340.5
6 3 80.10 48.20 0.00 23.15 1363.7
6 4 75.20 51.10 0.00 22.15 1385.8
QA 76% ok - Suspect - 24% of data estimated Consider using a different Station!
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 5 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 1410.3 Sunny
6 6 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 1435.8 Sunny
6 7 92.00 58.00 0.00 34.00 1469.8 Mostly_Sunny
6 8 88.00 56.00 0.00 31.00 1500.8 Partly_Cloudy
6 9 83.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 1529.8 Partly_Cloudy_5%_precip
6 10 75.00 56.00 0.00 24.50 1554.3 Partly_Cloudy_11%_precip
6 11 77.00 54.00 0.00 24.50 1578.8 Partly_Cloudy_10%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KVUO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 73.50 52.10 0.02 21.80 1600.6 *hist_fcst*
6 13 71.20 52.10 0.16 20.65 1621.3 *hist_fcst*
6 14 67.00 51.60 0.13 18.30 1639.6 *hist_fcst*
6 15 68.80 50.70 0.07 18.75 1658.3 *hist_fcst*
6 16 71.80 51.40 0.13 20.60 1678.9 *hist_fcst*
6 17 72.10 52.60 0.13 21.35 1700.3 *hist_fcst*
6 18 75.10 53.50 0.01 23.30 1723.6 *hist_fcst*
6 19 74.50 53.00 0.02 22.75 1746.3 *hist_fcst*
6 20 76.80 53.20 0.04 24.00 1770.3 *hist_fcst*
6 21 77.40 54.50 0.03 24.95 1795.3 *hist_fcst*
6 22 76.30 54.00 0.00 24.15 1819.4 *hist_fcst*
6 23 77.80 53.80 0.05 24.80 1844.2 *hist_fcst*
6 24 76.70 55.50 0.16 25.10 1869.3 *hist_fcst*
6 25 78.40 55.30 0.02 25.85 1895.2 *hist_fcst*
6 26 79.90 56.60 0.08 27.25 1922.4 *hist_fcst*
6 27 80.40 58.10 0.11 28.25 1950.7 *hist_fcst*
6 28 79.60 57.80 0.04 27.70 1978.4 *hist_fcst*
6 29 80.10 56.60 0.00 27.35 2005.7 *hist_fcst*
6 30 80.40 57.00 0.00 27.70 2033.4 *hist_fcst*
7 1 80.40 57.70 0.02 28.05 2061.5 *hist_fcst*
7 2 79.70 57.80 0.03 27.75 2089.2 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 3 78.70 57.20 0.01 26.95 2116.2 *hist_fcst*
7 4 77.50 54.80 0.00 25.15 2141.3 *hist_fcst*
7 5 79.10 55.20 0.00 26.15 2167.5 *hist_fcst*
7 6 81.20 56.60 0.00 27.90 2195.4 *hist_fcst*
7 7 80.60 56.80 0.00 27.70 2223.1 *hist_fcst*
7 8 77.10 56.80 0.02 25.95 2249.0 *hist_fcst*
7 9 81.50 57.10 0.03 28.30 2277.3 *hist_fcst*
7 10 79.60 57.20 0.03 27.40 2304.7 *hist_fcst*
7 11 78.50 57.00 0.01 26.75 2331.5 *hist_fcst*
7 12 79.50 56.90 0.00 27.20 2358.7 *hist_fcst*
7 13 81.70 57.80 0.01 28.75 2387.4 *hist_fcst*
7 14 79.80 56.70 0.01 27.25 2414.7 *hist_fcst*
7 15 83.90 56.60 0.00 29.25 2443.9 *hist_fcst*
7 16 81.50 57.70 0.01 28.60 2472.5 *hist_fcst*
7 17 81.90 58.30 0.00 29.10 2501.6 *hist_fcst*
7 18 79.00 57.70 0.00 27.35 2529.0 *hist_fcst*
7 19 81.30 56.70 0.00 28.00 2557.0 *hist_fcst*
7 20 82.00 57.00 0.01 28.50 2585.5 *hist_fcst*
7 21 79.90 56.40 0.00 27.15 2612.6 *hist_fcst*
7 22 80.80 56.30 0.02 27.55 2640.2 *hist_fcst*
7 23 79.00 57.10 0.02 27.05 2667.2 *hist_fcst*
7 24 78.70 56.40 0.06 26.55 2693.8 *hist_fcst*
7 25 82.60 56.00 0.01 28.30 2722.1 *hist_fcst*
7 26 84.60 56.70 0.03 29.65 2751.7 *hist_fcst*
7 27 86.30 57.50 0.01 30.90 2782.6 *hist_fcst*
7 28 82.90 57.40 0.01 29.15 2811.8 *hist_fcst*
7 29 85.20 57.40 0.00 30.30 2842.1 *hist_fcst*
7 30 88.20 59.00 0.00 32.60 2874.7 *hist_fcst*
7 31 86.60 59.70 0.00 32.15 2906.8 *hist_fcst*
8 1 84.80 58.80 0.00 30.80 2937.6 *hist_fcst*
8 2 84.30 58.50 0.00 30.40 2968.0 *hist_fcst*
8 3 81.30 59.70 0.01 29.50 2997.5 *hist_fcst*
8 4 85.90 58.80 0.00 31.35 3028.9 *hist_fcst*
8 5 90.10 58.80 0.00 33.45 3062.3 *hist_fcst*
8 6 85.30 58.00 0.00 30.65 3093.0 *hist_fcst*
8 7 82.60 57.90 0.02 29.25 3122.2 *hist_fcst*
8 8 81.40 57.70 0.00 28.55 3150.8 *hist_fcst*
8 9 79.10 58.10 0.01 27.60 3178.4 *hist_fcst*
8 10 82.50 58.10 0.02 29.30 3207.7 *hist_fcst*
8 11 85.20 59.80 0.02 31.50 3239.2 *hist_fcst*
8 12 84.90 59.80 0.00 31.35 3270.5 *hist_fcst*
8 13 84.70 59.30 0.01 31.00 3301.5 *hist_fcst*
8 14 85.40 58.10 0.01 30.75 3332.3 *hist_fcst*
8 15 84.00 58.70 0.01 30.35 3362.6 *hist_fcst*
8 16 85.60 59.30 0.00 31.45 3394.1 *hist_fcst*
8 17 85.00 58.90 0.00 30.95 3425.0 *hist_fcst*
8 18 82.80 57.90 0.00 29.35 3454.4 *hist_fcst*
8 19 85.00 57.80 0.00 30.40 3484.8 *hist_fcst*
8 20 84.70 57.80 0.00 30.25 3515.0 *hist_fcst*
8 21 81.30 56.80 0.01 28.05 3543.1 *hist_fcst*
8 22 80.00 55.40 0.03 26.70 3569.8 *hist_fcst*
8 23 79.00 53.70 0.00 25.35 3595.1 *hist_fcst*
8 24 79.70 54.20 0.00 25.95 3621.1 *hist_fcst*
8 25 79.60 54.20 0.00 25.90 3647.0 *hist_fcst*
8 26 80.50 53.50 0.01 26.00 3673.0 *hist_fcst*
8 27 82.60 56.90 0.04 28.75 3701.7 *hist_fcst*
8 28 83.60 56.40 0.01 29.00 3730.7 *hist_fcst*
8 29 85.00 57.30 0.06 30.15 3760.9 *hist_fcst*
8 30 79.80 56.80 0.06 27.30 3788.2 *hist_fcst*
8 31 75.10 55.70 0.06 24.40 3812.6 *hist_fcst*
9 1 76.20 54.40 0.01 24.30 3836.9 *hist_fcst*
9 2 79.20 54.60 0.01 25.90 3862.8 *hist_fcst*
9 3 80.00 53.50 0.03 25.75 3888.5 *hist_fcst*
9 4 79.60 53.70 0.01 25.65 3914.2 *hist_fcst*
9 5 80.20 54.00 0.00 26.10 3940.3 *hist_fcst*
9 6 80.60 55.60 0.15 27.10 3967.4 *hist_fcst*
9 7 79.70 55.00 0.04 26.35 3993.7 *hist_fcst*
9 8 81.50 56.20 0.01 27.85 4021.6 *hist_fcst*
9 9 77.70 56.50 0.04 26.10 4047.7 *hist_fcst*
9 10 78.60 56.70 0.06 26.65 4074.3 *hist_fcst*
9 11 76.90 53.50 0.02 24.20 4098.5 *hist_fcst*
9 12 78.20 52.20 0.01 24.20 4122.7 *hist_fcst*
9 13 78.30 52.00 0.03 24.15 4146.9 *hist_fcst*
9 14 75.80 51.30 0.01 22.55 4169.4 *hist_fcst*
9 15 76.30 51.90 0.02 23.10 4192.5 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988 Location: 2023 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld QA 76% ok - Suspect - 24% of data estimated - check weather data /Consider using a different Station! Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME This year is about versus QA 5 days ahead 2022 ok 5 days behind 2021 ok same day 30-yr normal ok
Date DDs Event 5-10-23 871 Peak pheromone trap catch 5-15-23 958 Peak female adult emergence 5-18-23 1028 Peak egg laying 5-29-23 1273 Peak egg hatch 7-2-23 2089 Peak in density large larvae
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?43736)