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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 34.00 21.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 41.00 30.00 1.17 0.00 0.0
1 3 48.20 37.00 0.46 2.66 2.7
1 4 45.00 37.40 0.26 1.31 4.0
1 5 43.00 37.40 1.22 0.53 4.5
1 6 55.90 39.00 3.06 6.75 11.2
1 7 53.60 42.10 0.33 6.85 18.1
1 8 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 20.8
1 9 51.80 25.00 0.00 3.05 23.8
1 10 45.00 30.00 0.64 0.90 24.7
1 11 45.00 39.20 0.08 1.54 26.3
1 12 55.90 39.20 0.03 6.80 33.1
1 13 50.00 42.10 0.11 5.05 38.1
1 14 50.00 35.60 0.07 3.26 41.4
1 15 46.40 39.00 0.00 2.15 43.5
1 16 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 44.7
1 17 43.00 37.00 0.03 0.51 45.2
1 18 46.90 39.20 0.14 2.43 47.6
1 19 45.00 42.80 2.17 2.90 50.5
1 20 59.00 35.60 0.02 7.43 58.0
1 21 46.90 37.00 0.00 2.08 60.0
1 22 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 62.7
1 23 42.80 28.00 0.00 0.27 63.0
1 24 43.00 30.20 0.00 0.34 63.3
1 25 46.40 28.00 0.00 1.28 64.6
1 26 44.60 26.10 0.00 0.69 65.3
1 27 48.90 23.00 0.00 1.91 67.2
1 28 46.40 21.90 0.00 1.10 68.3
1 29 46.40 23.00 0.00 1.13 69.5
1 30 52.00 30.20 0.15 3.52 73.0
1 31 48.20 33.10 0.03 2.23 75.2
2 1 46.40 35.10 0.07 1.68 76.9
2 2 44.10 37.40 0.06 0.94 77.8
2 3 51.80 30.00 0.27 3.42 81.3
2 4 48.90 30.00 0.00 2.27 83.5
2 5 53.60 30.90 0.00 4.26 87.8
2 6 57.90 30.00 0.00 6.01 93.8
2 7 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 97.2
2 8 46.90 32.00 0.00 1.65 98.9
2 9 55.90 35.10 0.00 5.88 104.8
2 10 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 109.1
2 11 68.00 37.40 0.00 12.23 121.4
2 12 64.90 30.20 0.00 9.20 130.6
2 13 61.00 28.90 0.00 7.24 137.8
2 14 52.00 42.10 0.15 6.05 143.9
2 15 50.00 33.80 0.04 3.04 146.9
2 16 53.10 44.10 0.06 7.60 154.5
2 17 53.60 37.90 0.00 5.35 159.9
2 18 55.90 35.60 0.00 5.97 165.8
2 19 50.00 32.00 0.21 2.86 168.7
2 20 48.90 37.90 0.03 3.12 171.8
2 21 45.00 35.60 0.13 1.16 173.0
2 22 37.90 28.40 0.00 0.00 173.0
2 23 37.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 173.0
2 24 39.90 25.00 0.01 0.00 173.0
2 25 48.20 21.00 0.00 1.62 174.6
2 26 44.60 28.00 0.34 0.73 175.3
2 27 46.90 37.40 0.59 2.13 177.4
2 28 61.00 44.60 1.76 11.80 189.2
3 1 59.00 50.00 0.16 13.50 202.7
3 2 54.00 48.20 0.58 10.10 212.8
3 3 51.10 37.00 0.06 3.98 216.8
3 4 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 223.1
3 5 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 228.9
3 6 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 232.8
3 7 54.00 30.00 0.00 4.33 237.1
3 8 48.90 35.10 0.20 2.72 239.8
3 9 53.60 32.00 0.04 4.39 244.2
3 10 51.80 26.10 0.00 3.12 247.3
3 11 61.00 32.00 0.00 7.70 255.0
3 12 61.00 28.40 0.17 7.17 262.2
3 13 54.00 44.10 0.13 8.05 270.2
3 14 54.00 46.00 0.17 9.00 279.2
3 15 59.00 46.00 0.05 11.50 290.7
3 16 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 297.6
3 17 51.80 35.10 0.02 4.00 301.6
3 18 59.00 48.00 0.02 12.50 314.1
3 19 54.00 42.80 0.13 7.40 321.5
3 20 50.00 39.00 0.18 3.87 325.4
3 21 50.00 42.10 0.52 5.05 330.4
3 22 66.90 48.00 0.01 16.45 346.9
3 23 59.00 44.10 0.03 10.55 357.4
3 24 64.90 33.80 0.00 9.86 367.3
3 25 63.00 42.80 0.00 11.90 379.2
3 26 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 394.5
3 27 70.00 46.00 0.00 17.00 411.5
3 28 63.00 46.90 0.00 13.95 425.4
3 29 62.60 44.10 0.00 12.35 437.8
3 30 57.90 42.10 0.02 9.00 446.8
3 31 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 454.9
4 1 60.80 37.00 0.35 8.61 463.5
4 2 59.00 42.10 0.01 9.55 473.1
4 3 57.20 43.00 0.49 9.10 482.2
4 4 55.40 42.10 0.11 7.75 489.9
4 5 54.00 37.00 0.01 5.34 495.2
4 6 66.20 30.00 0.00 9.76 505.0
4 7 73.90 37.40 0.08 15.13 520.1
4 8 62.60 42.10 0.58 11.35 531.5
4 9 53.60 41.00 0.20 6.30 537.8
4 10 46.90 35.10 0.96 1.88 539.7
4 11 51.80 33.10 0.64 3.74 543.4
4 12 45.00 37.00 0.39 1.27 544.7
4 13 52.00 37.00 0.10 4.40 549.1
4 14 51.10 33.80 0.06 3.52 552.6
4 15 54.00 33.80 0.00 4.80 557.4
4 16 54.00 36.00 0.05 5.15 562.5
4 17 57.90 39.00 0.00 7.73 570.3
4 18 53.60 46.00 0.49 8.80 579.1
4 19 50.00 44.10 0.16 6.05 585.1
4 20 53.60 44.10 0.25 7.85 593.0
4 21 57.90 41.00 0.03 8.45 601.4
4 22 61.00 39.00 0.04 9.26 610.7
4 23 66.20 37.90 0.00 11.49 622.2
4 24 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 635.3
4 25 59.00 48.20 0.17 12.60 647.9
4 26 55.90 42.10 0.09 8.00 655.9
4 27 57.20 45.00 0.12 10.10 666.0
4 28 55.90 44.60 0.15 9.25 675.2
4 29 61.00 46.00 0.64 12.50 687.7
4 30 57.90 48.90 0.08 12.40 700.1
5 1 64.90 48.20 0.03 15.55 715.7
5 2 59.00 48.00 0.08 12.50 728.2
5 3 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 741.7
5 4 75.00 44.10 0.00 18.55 760.2
5 5 61.00 46.40 0.51 12.70 772.9
5 6 62.60 48.20 1.05 14.40 787.3
5 7 57.00 46.00 0.04 10.50 797.8
5 8 53.10 42.80 0.04 6.95 804.8
5 9 55.00 41.00 0.05 7.00 811.8
5 10 62.60 39.00 0.00 10.05 821.8
5 11 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 832.6
5 12 55.40 44.60 0.16 9.00 841.6
5 13 57.20 35.10 0.57 6.48 848.1
5 14 70.00 50.00 0.09 19.00 867.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 15 69.80 57.00 0.26 22.40 889.5
5 16 64.90 51.10 0.00 17.00 906.5
5 17 66.20 46.00 0.00 15.10 921.6
5 18 62.60 48.00 0.13 14.30 935.9
5 19 57.20 44.10 0.06 9.65 945.6
5 20 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 957.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 21 73.00 43.00 0.00 17.00 974.3
5 22 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 992.9
5 23 71.60 53.10 0.00 21.35 1014.3 Peak egg laying
5 24 68.00 46.40 0.05 16.20 1030.5
5 25 73.40 55.00 0.02 23.20 1053.7
5 26 73.40 54.00 0.14 22.70 1076.4
5 27 63.00 53.10 0.07 17.05 1093.4
5 28 60.80 51.10 0.53 14.95 1108.4
5 29 60.80 51.10 0.18 14.95 1123.3
5 30 64.90 48.20 0.17 15.55 1138.9
5 31 77.00 51.10 0.00 23.05 1161.9
6 1 79.00 55.40 0.00 26.20 1188.1
6 2 80.60 53.60 0.12 26.10 1214.2
6 3 66.90 57.00 0.08 20.95 1235.2
6 4 64.40 55.40 2.09 18.90 1254.1
6 5 70.00 55.40 3.83 21.70 1275.8 Peak egg hatch
6 6 66.90 54.00 0.00 19.45 1295.2
6 7 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 1314.8
6 8 75.90 60.10 0.00 27.00 1341.8
6 9 69.80 57.20 0.56 22.50 1364.3
6 10 68.00 57.20 1.22 21.60 1385.9
6 11 66.90 55.90 0.06 20.40 1406.3
6 12 60.80 51.80 0.04 15.30 1421.6
6 13 59.00 51.10 0.06 14.05 1435.7
6 14 66.20 51.80 0.04 18.00 1453.7
6 15 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1473.5
6 16 71.60 55.00 0.00 22.30 1495.8
6 17 60.80 53.60 1.00 16.20 1512.0
6 18 64.90 48.00 0.08 15.45 1527.4
6 19 66.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 1546.4
6 20 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 1569.1
6 21 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1597.0
6 22 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 1622.9
6 23 75.90 48.20 0.00 21.05 1644.0
6 24 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 1670.6
6 25 93.00 53.10 0.00 32.05 1702.7
6 26 97.00 55.40 0.00 35.20 1737.9
6 27 93.20 62.60 0.00 36.90 1774.8
6 28 73.00 57.00 0.00 24.00 1798.8
6 29 75.00 59.00 0.00 26.00 1824.8
6 30 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 1851.8
7 1 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 1878.8
7 2 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 1902.2
7 3 72.00 59.00 0.00 24.50 1926.7
7 4 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1951.7
7 5 75.90 57.20 0.05 25.55 1977.2
7 6 73.90 62.60 0.18 27.25 2004.5
7 7 79.00 59.00 0.01 28.00 2032.5
7 8 81.00 60.10 0.00 29.55 2062.0
7 9 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 2090.8 Peak in density large larvae
7 10 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2117.8
7 11 95.00 62.10 0.00 37.55 2155.4
7 12 91.40 61.00 0.00 35.20 2190.6
7 13 80.10 57.20 0.00 27.65 2218.2
7 14 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 2247.8
7 15 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 2274.5
7 16 75.90 63.00 0.00 28.45 2302.9
7 17 73.40 60.10 0.00 25.75 2328.7
7 18 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 2353.7
7 19 90.00 60.10 0.00 34.05 2387.8
7 20 91.40 60.10 0.00 34.75 2422.5
7 21 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 2453.5
7 22 78.80 61.00 0.00 28.90 2482.4
7 23 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2510.3
7 24 91.40 57.20 0.00 33.30 2543.6
7 25 98.60 60.80 0.00 38.70 2582.3
7 26 100.90 62.10 0.00 40.50 2622.8
7 27 95.00 64.40 0.00 38.70 2661.5
7 28 96.10 66.00 0.00 40.05 2701.5
7 29 98.60 66.20 0.00 41.40 2742.9
7 30 100.90 66.20 0.00 42.55 2785.5
7 31 97.00 64.90 0.00 39.95 2825.4
8 1 88.00 66.00 0.00 36.00 2861.4
8 2 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 2895.6
8 3 84.90 60.10 0.00 31.50 2927.1
8 4 77.00 60.10 0.00 27.55 2954.7
8 5 82.90 55.90 0.00 28.40 2983.1
8 6 91.90 54.00 0.00 31.95 3015.0
8 7 99.00 57.20 0.00 37.10 3052.1
8 8 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 3086.3
8 9 84.90 62.60 0.01 32.75 3119.1
8 10 78.10 63.00 0.00 29.55 3148.6
8 11 87.80 57.00 0.00 31.40 3180.0
8 12 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 3209.0
8 13 79.00 57.20 0.00 27.10 3236.1
8 14 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 3266.6
8 15 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 3299.9
8 16 90.00 62.60 0.00 35.30 3335.2
8 17 97.00 64.00 0.00 39.50 3374.7
8 18 84.90 71.10 0.00 37.00 3411.7
8 19 82.90 68.00 0.00 34.45 3446.2
8 20 79.00 62.60 0.00 29.80 3476.0
8 21 89.60 57.20 0.00 32.40 3508.4
8 22 88.00 62.10 0.00 34.05 3542.4
8 23 86.00 62.10 0.00 33.05 3575.5
8 24 93.20 62.60 0.00 36.90 3612.4
8 25 91.90 64.00 0.00 36.95 3649.3
8 26 79.00 60.10 0.00 28.55 3677.9
8 27 75.20 60.10 0.00 26.65 3704.5
8 28 81.00 53.10 0.00 26.05 3730.6
8 29 93.20 57.00 0.00 34.10 3764.7
8 30 98.60 60.10 0.00 38.35 3803.0
8 31 91.90 62.60 0.00 36.25 3839.3
9 1 91.40 60.10 0.00 34.75 3874.0
9 2 88.00 60.10 0.00 33.05 3907.1
9 3 77.00 61.00 0.00 28.00 3935.1
9 4 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 3964.2
9 5 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 3991.2
9 6 91.90 53.60 0.00 31.75 4023.0
9 7 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 4052.9
9 8 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 4078.0
9 9 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 4105.9
9 10 89.60 61.00 0.00 34.30 4140.2
9 11 79.00 60.10 0.01 28.55 4168.7
9 12 75.90 60.80 0.05 27.35 4196.1
9 13 73.40 62.60 0.00 27.00 4223.1
9 14 75.20 62.60 0.00 27.90 4251.0
9 15 75.90 61.00 0.00 27.45 4278.4
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KVUO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-14-22 | 867 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-20-22 | 957 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-23-22 | 1014 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-5-22 | 1276 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-9-22 | 2091 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2494068)
