Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 44.60 28.00 0.00 0.73 0.7 * START * 1 2 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 1.4 1 3 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 3.0 1 4 46.40 33.80 0.09 1.58 4.5 1 5 52.00 39.00 0.25 4.84 9.4 1 6 51.80 35.10 0.28 4.00 13.4 1 7 45.00 37.40 0.16 1.31 14.7 1 8 45.00 35.10 0.37 1.13 15.8 1 9 48.90 39.20 0.17 3.39 19.2 1 10 46.90 41.00 0.08 2.95 22.2 1 11 57.90 44.10 0.74 10.00 32.2 1 12 53.60 48.00 0.08 9.80 42.0 1 13 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 49.3 1 14 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 55.5 1 15 57.20 35.10 0.09 6.48 62.0 1 16 55.90 39.20 0.04 6.80 68.8 1 17 52.00 39.20 0.56 4.89 73.7 1 18 52.00 42.10 0.11 6.05 79.7 1 19 48.20 41.00 0.04 3.60 83.3 1 20 48.90 42.80 0.01 4.85 88.2 1 21 51.80 43.00 0.17 6.40 94.6 1 22 48.90 42.10 0.19 4.50 99.1 1 23 46.40 41.00 0.86 2.70 101.8 1 24 52.00 42.10 0.47 6.05 107.8 1 25 46.90 39.00 0.29 2.39 110.2 1 26 48.20 41.00 0.31 3.60 113.8 1 27 53.60 42.10 0.11 6.85 120.7 1 28 55.90 48.00 0.23 10.95 131.6 1 29 53.60 46.00 0.41 8.80 140.4 1 30 50.00 35.60 0.07 3.26 143.7 1 31 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 146.4 2 1 50.00 41.00 0.12 4.50 150.9 2 2 60.80 44.10 0.02 11.45 162.4 2 3 57.20 42.80 0.20 9.00 171.4 2 4 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 184.0 2 5 57.90 37.90 0.00 7.43 191.4 2 6 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 195.5 2 7 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 202.9 2 8 55.40 37.00 0.00 6.01 208.9 2 9 51.80 37.00 0.00 4.31 213.2 2 10 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 216.1 2 11 48.90 33.80 0.00 2.58 218.7 2 12 48.90 28.00 0.00 2.15 220.8 2 13 51.80 23.00 0.23 2.93 223.7 2 14 46.90 33.10 0.12 1.72 225.5 2 15 48.90 35.60 0.05 2.78 228.2 2 16 50.00 42.10 0.06 5.05 233.3 2 17 55.90 42.10 0.07 8.00 241.3 2 18 43.00 32.00 0.17 0.37 241.7 2 19 39.90 28.00 0.01 0.00 241.7 2 20 34.00 30.20 0.25 0.00 241.7 2 21 36.00 19.40 0.07 0.00 241.7 2 22 39.20 28.40 0.59 0.00 241.7 2 23 39.20 21.20 0.01 0.00 241.7 2 24 48.90 37.00 0.04 2.97 244.6 2 25 46.40 33.10 0.17 1.53 246.2 2 26 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 246.9 2 27 46.40 35.10 0.07 1.68 248.6 2 28 45.00 41.00 0.31 2.00 250.6 3 1 48.90 39.00 0.06 3.34 254.0 3 2 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 257.4 3 3 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 261.1 3 4 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 264.5 3 5 51.80 32.00 0.06 3.61 268.1 3 6 59.00 28.00 0.00 6.25 274.4 3 7 54.00 30.20 0.00 4.35 278.7 3 8 57.90 37.40 0.22 7.30 286.0 3 9 54.00 35.10 0.00 5.00 291.0 3 10 64.00 30.00 0.00 8.75 299.8 3 11 66.20 37.00 0.00 11.24 311.0 3 12 70.00 35.60 0.00 12.72 323.7 3 13 62.60 46.00 0.40 13.30 337.0 3 14 54.00 39.00 0.03 5.81 342.8 3 15 55.40 37.00 0.26 6.01 348.8 3 16 53.60 39.00 0.07 5.62 354.5 3 17 52.00 39.20 0.46 4.89 359.3 3 18 53.60 41.00 0.01 6.30 365.6 3 19 57.20 33.10 0.00 6.14 371.8 3 20 62.60 30.20 0.00 8.15 379.9 3 21 53.60 33.80 0.26 4.62 384.6 3 22 50.00 39.20 0.49 3.92 388.5 3 23 46.40 37.40 3.68 1.91 390.4 3 24 45.00 37.00 0.13 1.27 391.7 3 25 53.60 39.20 0.06 5.67 397.3 3 26 50.00 39.20 0.02 3.92 401.2 3 27 57.20 46.40 0.04 10.80 412.0 3 28 57.00 41.00 0.00 8.00 420.0 3 29 61.00 33.80 0.00 8.02 428.1 3 30 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 438.0 3 31 64.40 44.10 0.00 13.25 451.2 4 1 48.90 41.00 0.31 3.95 455.2 4 2 53.10 34.00 0.00 4.42 459.6 4 3 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 463.8 4 4 59.00 46.00 0.03 11.50 475.3 4 5 54.00 48.20 0.34 10.10 485.4 4 6 66.90 51.10 0.37 18.00 503.4 4 7 62.60 48.20 0.90 14.40 517.8 4 8 55.40 46.90 0.13 10.15 527.9 4 9 66.20 37.40 0.01 11.35 539.3 4 10 62.60 50.00 0.10 15.30 554.6 4 11 57.20 44.10 0.21 9.65 564.2 4 12 51.80 42.10 0.05 5.95 570.2 4 13 55.90 46.40 0.03 10.15 580.3 4 14 59.00 50.00 0.18 13.50 593.8 4 15 50.00 44.60 0.46 6.30 600.1 4 16 50.00 42.10 0.01 5.05 605.2 4 17 55.40 43.00 0.02 8.20 613.4 4 18 64.00 41.00 0.00 11.50 624.9 4 19 68.00 35.60 0.00 11.75 636.6 4 20 66.90 39.00 0.00 12.18 648.8 4 21 62.60 46.90 0.00 13.75 662.5 4 22 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 674.5 4 23 73.40 37.40 0.00 14.89 689.4 4 24 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 711.9 4 25 84.20 48.00 0.00 25.10 737.0 4 26 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 762.4 4 27 57.20 50.00 0.02 12.60 775.0 4 28 61.00 46.40 0.08 12.70 787.7 4 29 60.10 46.40 0.06 12.25 800.0 4 30 59.00 48.00 0.01 12.50 812.5 5 1 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 826.0 5 2 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 841.7 5 3 78.10 44.60 0.00 20.35 862.1 peak pheromone trap catch 5 4 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 881.0 5 5 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 903.5 5 6 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 925.0 5 7 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 949.5 5 8 79.00 51.80 0.06 24.40 973.9 peak female adult emergence 5 9 68.00 55.00 0.13 20.50 994.4 5 10 63.00 51.10 0.05 16.05 1010.4 peak egg laying 5 11 69.80 44.10 0.00 15.95 1026.4 5 12 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1049.7 5 13 90.00 48.20 0.00 28.10 1077.8 5 14 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 1107.3 5 15 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 1128.7 5 16 64.40 55.00 0.00 18.70 1147.4 5 17 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 1165.4 5 18 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1185.2 5 19 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1205.9
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1206QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 11 days ahead 2017 ok
 11 days behind 2016 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KVUO data
  5 20  68.30 48.80  0.00  17.55   1223.5  0.00_8.59%_precip.    
  5 21  72.90 49.70  0.00  20.30   1243.8  0.00_11.30%_precip.    
  5 22  81.80 47.00  0.00  23.40   1267.2  0.00_14.53%_precip.    
  5 23  83.70 51.90  0.00  26.80   1294.0  0.00_17.80%_precip.   peak egg hatch
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KVUO 2006-2015
  5 24  63.20 47.90  0.16  14.55   1308.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  66.70 48.00  0.10  16.35   1324.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  66.80 48.70  0.15  16.75   1341.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  65.60 49.90  0.17  16.75   1358.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  65.90 49.30  0.11  16.60   1375.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  66.50 49.20  0.12  16.85   1391.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  70.00 49.10  0.01  18.55   1410.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  74.10 50.30  0.03  21.20   1431.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  74.50 52.20  0.04  22.35   1453.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  70.30 52.50  0.16  20.40   1474.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.30 50.90  0.12  19.60   1493.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  72.40 50.70  0.13  20.55   1514.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  72.60 51.40  0.13  21.00   1535.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  71.10 50.80  0.09  19.95   1555.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  70.80 51.70  0.15  20.25   1575.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  70.10 51.80  0.04  19.95   1595.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  70.90 51.20  0.06  20.05   1615.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  69.60 50.40  0.06  19.00   1634.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  68.00 50.60  0.04  18.30   1653.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  70.90 50.90  0.00  19.90   1672.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  70.60 51.70  0.10  20.15   1693.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  69.00 50.90  0.02  18.95   1712.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  69.40 50.50  0.01  18.95   1730.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  72.10 50.10  0.06  20.10   1751.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  70.90 51.20  0.07  20.05   1771.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  69.50 51.60  0.00  19.55   1790.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  69.70 51.60  0.05  19.65   1810.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  72.00 51.10  0.10  20.55   1830.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  73.70 51.10  0.02  21.40   1852.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  75.70 52.50  0.00  23.10   1875.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  73.30 51.40  0.03  21.35   1896.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  74.50 52.30  0.11  22.40   1919.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  75.90 53.30  0.03  23.60   1942.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  76.40 54.00  0.08  24.20   1966.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  78.40 54.50  0.07  25.45   1992.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  81.00 55.50  0.02  27.25   2019.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.20 56.80  0.02  27.00   2046.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  77.90 55.30  0.01  25.60   2072.2  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  1  80.60 54.00  0.02  26.30   2098.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  82.90 55.70  0.03  28.30   2126.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  82.70 56.30  0.08  28.50   2155.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  80.50 54.40  0.00  26.45   2181.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  79.90 54.40  0.00  26.15   2207.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  79.30 55.60  0.00  26.45   2234.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  80.10 55.30  0.00  26.70   2261.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  81.70 55.70  0.00  27.70   2288.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  84.40 56.60  0.00  29.50   2318.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  84.50 56.70  0.00  29.60   2347.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  81.90 56.00  0.00  27.95   2375.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  80.50 56.40  0.01  27.45   2403.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  78.10 56.30  0.07  26.20   2429.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  78.40 56.10  0.01  26.25   2455.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  82.70 56.30  0.00  28.50   2484.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  82.90 56.40  0.02  28.65   2512.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  81.80 56.30  0.02  28.05   2540.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  78.40 56.10  0.07  26.25   2567.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  77.90 55.60  0.02  25.75   2592.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  80.50 56.50  0.01  27.50   2620.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  79.40 56.60  0.01  27.00   2647.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  81.00 56.80  0.01  27.90   2675.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  77.10 57.40  0.01  26.25   2701.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  79.40 56.20  0.06  26.80   2728.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  83.70 55.90  0.01  28.80   2757.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  81.90 56.10  0.03  28.00   2785.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  82.10 56.10  0.01  28.10   2813.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  81.40 56.10  0.00  27.75   2841.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  82.80 57.10  0.00  28.95   2869.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  82.10 57.40  0.00  28.75   2898.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  82.00 55.70  0.00  27.85   2926.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  83.00 55.90  0.00  28.45   2955.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  81.80 56.80  0.00  28.30   2983.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  80.20 56.60  0.00  27.40   3010.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  82.80 56.10  0.00  28.45   3039.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  85.80 56.30  0.00  30.05   3069.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  83.20 57.20  0.00  29.20   3098.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  80.60 57.60  0.00  28.10   3126.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  78.90 57.30  0.00  27.10   3153.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  76.60 57.40  0.01  26.00   3179.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  77.00 56.30  0.00  25.65   3205.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  79.80 56.40  0.00  27.10   3232.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  81.80 57.30  0.05  28.55   3260.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  81.00 56.70  0.03  27.85   3288.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  82.80 56.80  0.00  28.80   3317.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  84.10 57.60  0.01  29.85   3347.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.40 58.00  0.00  29.70   3377.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.00 57.50  0.00  30.25   3407.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  85.70 57.30  0.00  30.50   3437.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  82.40 57.50  0.06  28.95   3466.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  82.30 56.90  0.05  28.60   3495.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  79.70 55.60  0.04  26.65   3522.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  78.30 54.10  0.00  25.20   3547.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  78.60 53.70  0.01  25.15   3572.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  79.60 54.00  0.00  25.80   3598.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  80.60 54.00  0.04  26.30   3624.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  81.40 53.70  0.01  26.55   3651.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  81.30 54.20  0.03  26.75   3677.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  82.90 55.30  0.01  28.10   3705.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  80.70 56.30  0.05  27.50   3733.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  76.10 56.30  0.05  25.20   3758.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.00 54.80  0.06  23.90   3782.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  74.80 52.30  0.04  22.55   3805.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  78.10 52.10  0.01  24.10   3829.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.00 51.90  0.03  24.95   3854.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  79.30 52.60  0.01  24.95   3879.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  77.80 53.20  0.02  24.50   3903.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  77.40 53.30  0.20  24.35   3927.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  78.10 52.70  0.05  24.40   3952.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.30 52.40  0.07  25.35   3977.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.20 52.90  0.00  25.05   4002.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  78.40 53.60  0.01  25.00   4027.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  82.20 51.80  0.00  26.00   4053.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  85.70 52.00  0.00  27.85   4081.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  81.40 53.10  0.00  26.25   4107.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  75.90 53.40  0.00  23.65   4131.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  74.90 52.90  0.03  22.90   4154.3  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1206 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 11 days ahead 2017 ok
 11 days behind 2016 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-3-18 862peak pheromone trap catch
 5-8-18 974peak female adult emergence
 5-10-18 1010peak egg laying
 5-23-18 1294peak egg hatch
 6-30-18 2072peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)