Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 44.60 28.00 0.00 0.73 0.7 * START * 1 2 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 1.4 1 3 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 3.0 1 4 46.40 33.80 0.09 1.58 4.5 1 5 52.00 39.00 0.25 4.84 9.4 1 6 51.80 35.10 0.28 4.00 13.4 1 7 45.00 37.40 0.16 1.31 14.7 1 8 45.00 35.10 0.37 1.13 15.8 1 9 48.90 39.20 0.17 3.39 19.2 1 10 46.90 41.00 0.08 2.95 22.2 1 11 57.90 44.10 0.74 10.00 32.2 1 12 53.60 48.00 0.08 9.80 42.0 1 13 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 49.3 1 14 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 55.5 1 15 57.20 35.10 0.09 6.48 62.0 1 16 55.90 39.20 0.04 6.80 68.8 1 17 52.00 39.20 0.56 4.89 73.7 1 18 52.00 42.10 0.11 6.05 79.7 1 19 48.20 41.00 0.04 3.60 83.3 1 20 48.90 42.80 0.01 4.85 88.2 1 21 51.80 43.00 0.17 6.40 94.6 1 22 48.90 42.10 0.19 4.50 99.1 1 23 46.40 41.00 0.86 2.70 101.8 1 24 52.00 42.10 0.47 6.05 107.8 1 25 46.90 39.00 0.29 2.39 110.2 1 26 48.20 41.00 0.31 3.60 113.8 1 27 53.60 42.10 0.11 6.85 120.7 1 28 55.90 48.00 0.23 10.95 131.6 1 29 53.60 46.00 0.41 8.80 140.4 1 30 50.00 35.60 0.07 3.26 143.7 1 31 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 146.4 2 1 50.00 41.00 0.12 4.50 150.9 2 2 60.80 44.10 0.02 11.45 162.4 2 3 57.20 42.80 0.20 9.00 171.4 2 4 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 184.0 2 5 57.90 37.90 0.00 7.43 191.4 2 6 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 195.5 2 7 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 202.9 2 8 55.40 37.00 0.00 6.01 208.9 2 9 51.80 37.00 0.00 4.31 213.2 2 10 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 216.1 2 11 48.90 33.80 0.00 2.58 218.7 2 12 48.90 28.00 0.00 2.15 220.8 2 13 51.80 23.00 0.23 2.93 223.7 2 14 46.90 33.10 0.12 1.72 225.5 2 15 48.90 35.60 0.05 2.78 228.2 2 16 50.00 42.10 0.06 5.05 233.3 2 17 55.90 42.10 0.07 8.00 241.3 2 18 43.00 32.00 0.17 0.37 241.7 2 19 39.90 28.00 0.01 0.00 241.7 2 20 34.00 30.20 0.25 0.00 241.7 2 21 36.00 19.40 0.07 0.00 241.7 2 22 39.20 28.40 0.59 0.00 241.7 2 23 39.20 21.20 0.01 0.00 241.7 2 24 48.90 37.00 0.04 2.97 244.6 2 25 46.40 33.10 0.17 1.53 246.2 2 26 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 246.9 2 27 46.40 35.10 0.07 1.68 248.6 2 28 45.00 41.00 0.31 2.00 250.6 3 1 48.90 39.00 0.06 3.34 254.0 3 2 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 257.4 3 3 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 261.1 3 4 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 264.5 3 5 51.80 32.00 0.06 3.61 268.1 3 6 59.00 28.00 0.00 6.25 274.4 3 7 54.00 30.20 0.00 4.35 278.7 3 8 57.90 37.40 0.22 7.30 286.0 3 9 54.00 35.10 0.00 5.00 291.0 3 10 64.00 30.00 0.00 8.75 299.8 3 11 66.20 37.00 0.00 11.24 311.0 3 12 70.00 35.60 0.00 12.72 323.7 3 13 62.60 46.00 0.40 13.30 337.0 3 14 54.00 39.00 0.03 5.81 342.8 3 15 55.40 37.00 0.26 6.01 348.8 3 16 53.60 39.00 0.07 5.62 354.5 3 17 52.00 39.20 0.46 4.89 359.3 3 18 53.60 41.00 0.01 6.30 365.6 3 19 57.20 33.10 0.00 6.14 371.8 3 20 62.60 30.20 0.00 8.15 379.9 3 21 53.60 33.80 0.26 4.62 384.6 3 22 50.00 39.20 0.49 3.92 388.5 3 23 46.40 37.40 3.68 1.91 390.4 3 24 45.00 37.00 0.13 1.27 391.7 3 25 53.60 39.20 0.06 5.67 397.3 3 26 50.00 39.20 0.02 3.92 401.2 3 27 57.20 46.40 0.04 10.80 412.0 3 28 57.00 41.00 0.00 8.00 420.0 3 29 61.00 33.80 0.00 8.02 428.1 3 30 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 438.0 3 31 64.40 44.10 0.00 13.25 451.2 4 1 48.90 41.00 0.31 3.95 455.2 4 2 53.10 34.00 0.00 4.42 459.6 4 3 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 463.8 4 4 59.00 46.00 0.03 11.50 475.3 4 5 54.00 48.20 0.34 10.10 485.4 4 6 66.90 51.10 0.37 18.00 503.4 4 7 62.60 48.20 0.90 14.40 517.8 4 8 55.40 46.90 0.13 10.15 527.9 4 9 66.20 37.40 0.01 11.35 539.3 4 10 62.60 50.00 0.10 15.30 554.6 4 11 57.20 44.10 0.21 9.65 564.2 4 12 51.80 42.10 0.05 5.95 570.2 4 13 55.90 46.40 0.03 10.15 580.3 4 14 59.00 50.00 0.18 13.50 593.8 4 15 50.00 44.60 0.46 6.30 600.1 4 16 50.00 42.10 0.01 5.05 605.2 4 17 55.40 43.00 0.02 8.20 613.4 4 18 64.00 41.00 0.00 11.50 624.9 4 19 68.00 35.60 0.00 11.75 636.6 4 20 66.90 39.00 0.00 12.18 648.8 4 21 62.60 46.90 0.00 13.75 662.5 4 22 64.90 41.00 0.00 11.95 674.5 4 23 73.40 37.40 0.00 14.89 689.4 4 24 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 711.9 4 25 84.20 48.00 0.00 25.10 737.0 4 26 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 762.4 4 27 57.20 50.00 0.02 12.60 775.0 4 28 61.00 46.40 0.08 12.70 787.7 4 29 60.10 46.40 0.06 12.25 800.0 4 30 59.00 48.00 0.01 12.50 812.5 5 1 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 826.0 5 2 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 841.7 5 3 78.10 44.60 0.00 20.35 862.1 peak pheromone trap catch 5 4 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 881.0 5 5 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 903.5 5 6 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 925.0 5 7 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 949.5 5 8 79.00 51.80 0.06 24.40 973.9 peak female adult emergence 5 9 68.00 55.00 0.13 20.50 994.4 5 10 63.00 51.10 0.05 16.05 1010.4 peak egg laying 5 11 69.80 44.10 0.00 15.95 1026.4 5 12 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1049.7 5 13 90.00 48.20 0.00 28.10 1077.8 5 14 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 1107.3 5 15 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 1128.7 5 16 64.40 55.00 0.00 18.70 1147.4 5 17 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 1165.4 5 18 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1185.2 5 19 71.60 51.10 0.00 20.35 1205.6 5 20 71.10 54.00 0.00 21.55 1227.1 5 21 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 1244.2 5 22 84.90 48.20 0.00 25.55 1269.7 5 23 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 1296.7 peak egg hatch 5 24 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 1321.8 5 25 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 1343.4 5 26 66.90 48.20 0.00 16.55 1359.9 5 27 79.00 51.80 0.00 24.40 1384.3 5 28 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 1405.9 5 29 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 1423.3 5 30 68.00 39.90 0.00 13.04 1436.4 5 31 64.40 50.00 0.03 16.20 1452.6 6 1 70.00 48.20 0.00 18.10 1470.7 6 2 82.00 48.20 0.00 24.10 1494.8 6 3 71.60 54.00 0.00 21.80 1516.6 6 4 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 1535.1 6 5 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 1552.2 6 6 78.80 48.00 0.00 22.40 1574.6 6 7 70.00 57.00 0.00 22.50 1597.1 6 8 69.80 55.40 0.25 21.60 1618.7 6 9 63.00 50.00 0.33 15.50 1634.2 6 10 57.20 50.00 0.15 12.60 1646.8 6 11 72.00 44.60 0.00 17.30 1664.1 6 12 79.00 42.80 0.00 19.90 1684.0 6 13 68.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1704.5 6 14 66.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 1723.5 6 15 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1746.0 6 16 77.00 57.00 0.04 26.00 1772.0 6 17 90.00 52.00 0.06 30.00 1802.0 6 18 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 1829.7 6 19 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 1861.2 6 20 93.20 62.10 0.00 36.65 1897.9 6 21 71.60 60.80 0.00 25.20 1923.1 6 22 75.90 60.10 0.00 27.00 1950.1 6 23 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 1974.7 6 24 90.00 53.10 0.00 30.55 2005.3 6 25 69.80 57.90 0.03 22.85 2028.1 6 26 74.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 2048.1 Px 6 27 75.80 53.10 0.00 23.45 2071.6 Px Pn peak in density large larvae 6 28 73.70 53.00 0.00 22.35 2093.9 Px Pn 6 29 79.00 64.00 0.00 30.50 2124.4 6 30 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2149.6 7 1 75.90 57.20 0.02 25.55 2175.2 7 2 71.60 53.60 0.17 21.60 2196.8 7 3 78.80 48.00 0.00 22.40 2219.2 7 4 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 2248.1 7 5 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 2278.5 7 6 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2306.5 7 7 79.00 62.10 0.00 29.55 2336.1 7 8 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 2365.6 7 9 71.60 57.00 0.00 23.30 2388.9 7 10 78.10 59.00 0.00 27.55 2416.4 7 11 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 2448.9 7 12 95.00 66.00 0.00 39.50 2488.4 7 13 91.40 62.60 0.00 36.00 2524.4 7 14 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 2557.9
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2558QA 98% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 9 days ahead 2017 ok
 5 days behind 2016 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KVUO data
  7 15  91.90 58.20  0.00  34.05   2591.9  0.00_25.05%_precip.    
  7 16  87.90 59.00  0.00  32.45   2624.4  0.00_23.45%_precip.    
  7 17  85.70 52.50  0.00  28.10   2652.5  0.00_19.10%_precip.    
  7 18  73.00 54.10  0.02  22.55   2675.0  0.018_13.55%_precip.    
  7 19  80.70 50.20  0.00  24.45   2699.5  0.00_15.45%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KVUO 2006-2015
  7 20  80.50 56.50  0.01  27.50   2727.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  79.40 56.60  0.01  27.00   2754.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  81.00 56.80  0.01  27.90   2781.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  77.10 57.40  0.01  26.25   2808.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  79.40 56.20  0.06  26.80   2834.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  83.70 55.90  0.01  28.80   2863.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  81.90 56.10  0.03  28.00   2891.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  82.10 56.10  0.01  28.10   2919.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  81.40 56.10  0.00  27.75   2947.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  82.80 57.10  0.00  28.95   2976.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  82.10 57.40  0.00  28.75   3005.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  82.00 55.70  0.00  27.85   3033.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  83.00 55.90  0.00  28.45   3061.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  81.80 56.80  0.00  28.30   3089.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  80.20 56.60  0.00  27.40   3117.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  82.80 56.10  0.00  28.45   3145.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  85.80 56.30  0.00  30.05   3175.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  83.20 57.20  0.00  29.20   3205.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  80.60 57.60  0.00  28.10   3233.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  78.90 57.30  0.00  27.10   3260.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  76.60 57.40  0.01  26.00   3286.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  77.00 56.30  0.00  25.65   3311.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  79.80 56.40  0.00  27.10   3338.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  81.80 57.30  0.05  28.55   3367.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  81.00 56.70  0.03  27.85   3395.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  82.80 56.80  0.00  28.80   3424.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  84.10 57.60  0.01  29.85   3454.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.40 58.00  0.00  29.70   3483.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.00 57.50  0.00  30.25   3513.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  85.70 57.30  0.00  30.50   3544.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  82.40 57.50  0.06  28.95   3573.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  82.30 56.90  0.05  28.60   3602.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  79.70 55.60  0.04  26.65   3628.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  78.30 54.10  0.00  25.20   3653.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  78.60 53.70  0.01  25.15   3679.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  79.60 54.00  0.00  25.80   3704.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  80.60 54.00  0.04  26.30   3731.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  81.40 53.70  0.01  26.55   3757.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  81.30 54.20  0.03  26.75   3784.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  82.90 55.30  0.01  28.10   3812.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  80.70 56.30  0.05  27.50   3840.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  76.10 56.30  0.05  25.20   3865.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.00 54.80  0.06  23.90   3889.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  74.80 52.30  0.04  22.55   3911.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  78.10 52.10  0.01  24.10   3935.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.00 51.90  0.03  24.95   3960.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  79.30 52.60  0.01  24.95   3985.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  77.80 53.20  0.02  24.50   4010.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  77.40 53.30  0.20  24.35   4034.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  78.10 52.70  0.05  24.40   4058.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.30 52.40  0.07  25.35   4084.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.20 52.90  0.00  25.05   4109.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  78.40 53.60  0.01  25.00   4134.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  82.20 51.80  0.00  26.00   4160.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  85.70 52.00  0.00  27.85   4188.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  81.40 53.10  0.00  26.25   4214.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  75.90 53.40  0.00  23.65   4238.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  74.90 52.90  0.03  22.90   4260.9  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2558 QA 98% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 9 days ahead 2017 ok
 5 days behind 2016 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-3-18 862peak pheromone trap catch
 5-8-18 974peak female adult emergence
 5-10-18 1010peak egg laying
 5-23-18 1297peak egg hatch
 6-27-18 2072peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)