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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.90 32.00 0.00 1.65 1.6 * START *
1 2 46.90 33.80 0.11 1.77 3.4
1 3 48.90 37.40 0.18 3.03 6.5
1 4 46.90 37.00 0.24 2.08 8.5
1 5 61.00 37.90 0.04 8.94 17.5
1 6 57.20 35.60 0.13 6.58 24.0
1 7 53.60 42.80 0.17 7.20 31.2
1 8 52.00 39.00 0.10 4.84 36.1
1 9 53.60 37.00 0.32 5.16 41.2
1 10 50.00 32.00 0.06 2.86 44.1
1 11 51.80 39.20 0.58 4.79 48.9
1 12 53.60 44.60 0.07 8.10 57.0
1 13 54.00 46.40 0.18 9.20 66.2
1 14 55.40 41.00 0.09 7.20 73.4
1 15 52.00 44.10 0.74 7.05 80.4
1 16 71.60 39.00 0.11 14.51 95.0
1 17 57.90 46.00 0.01 10.95 105.9
1 18 48.90 39.00 1.45 3.34 109.2
1 19 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 111.5
1 20 37.90 35.10 0.00 0.00 111.5
1 21 46.40 33.80 0.03 1.58 113.1
1 22 46.40 30.90 0.00 1.41 114.5
1 23 48.90 32.00 0.00 2.42 116.9
1 24 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 117.7
1 25 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 118.5
1 26 45.00 39.20 0.00 1.54 120.1
1 27 52.00 39.00 0.01 4.84 124.9
1 28 48.20 36.00 0.20 2.52 127.4
1 29 39.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 127.4
1 30 41.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 127.4
1 31 43.00 23.00 0.00 0.27 127.7
2 1 48.90 23.00 0.00 1.91 129.6
2 2 45.00 23.00 0.00 0.74 130.3
2 3 53.60 32.00 0.18 4.39 134.7
2 4 50.00 39.20 0.06 3.92 138.7
2 5 48.90 39.00 0.23 3.34 142.0
2 6 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 145.5
2 7 51.10 41.00 0.20 5.05 150.6
2 8 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 154.5
2 9 55.90 30.00 0.04 5.14 159.7
2 10 55.40 41.00 0.01 7.20 166.9
2 11 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 168.8
2 12 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 170.1
2 13 46.90 35.10 0.25 1.88 172.0
2 14 45.00 30.90 0.01 0.93 172.9
2 15 46.40 24.80 0.00 1.18 174.1
2 16 46.90 28.00 0.00 1.45 175.5
2 17 55.90 33.10 0.00 5.55 181.1
2 18 54.00 39.20 0.00 5.87 187.0
2 19 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 191.4
2 20 54.00 42.10 0.09 7.05 198.4
2 21 46.90 35.10 0.14 1.88 200.3
2 22 39.20 33.10 0.58 0.00 200.3
2 23 36.00 24.10 0.02 0.00 200.3
2 24 37.90 23.00 0.00 0.00 200.3
2 25 45.00 19.40 0.19 0.68 201.0
2 26 43.00 33.80 0.28 0.41 201.4
2 27 48.20 33.80 0.13 2.29 203.7
2 28 43.00 32.00 0.43 0.37 204.0
3 1 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 205.4
3 2 48.20 35.10 0.04 2.42 207.8
3 3 46.90 33.10 0.07 1.72 209.5
3 4 45.00 33.80 0.16 1.06 210.6
3 5 42.80 30.20 0.23 0.29 210.9
3 6 51.80 35.60 0.11 4.07 215.0
3 7 50.00 30.90 0.06 2.77 217.7
3 8 46.90 30.00 0.05 1.54 219.3
3 9 48.90 39.20 0.42 3.39 222.6
3 10 46.90 35.60 0.13 1.93 224.6
3 11 55.00 35.10 0.02 5.46 230.0
3 12 55.40 30.00 0.51 4.93 235.0
3 13 52.00 37.00 1.25 4.40 239.4
3 14 53.60 30.00 0.01 4.16 243.5
3 15 53.60 33.80 0.02 4.62 248.1
3 16 62.60 30.00 0.00 8.11 256.3
3 17 62.60 30.20 0.00 8.15 264.4
3 18 66.20 34.00 0.00 10.52 274.9
3 19 51.80 42.80 0.25 6.30 281.2
3 20 50.00 42.10 0.01 5.05 286.3
3 21 64.40 30.90 0.00 9.08 295.4
3 22 63.00 35.10 0.00 9.23 304.6
3 23 46.90 37.00 0.24 2.08 306.7
3 24 48.00 33.80 0.25 2.21 308.9
3 25 45.00 33.10 0.12 1.02 309.9
3 26 48.90 30.20 0.05 2.29 312.2
3 27 46.90 28.90 0.10 1.49 313.7
3 28 48.20 37.00 0.38 2.66 316.3
3 29 57.90 33.10 0.00 6.46 322.8
3 30 55.40 39.00 0.00 6.50 329.3
3 31 50.00 42.10 0.71 5.05 334.3
4 1 51.80 37.40 0.35 4.38 338.7
4 2 46.00 35.10 0.16 1.52 340.2
4 3 51.80 33.80 0.04 3.82 344.1
4 4 48.90 35.10 0.04 2.72 346.8
4 5 51.10 35.10 0.23 3.68 350.5
4 6 57.00 46.00 0.56 10.50 361.0
4 7 57.20 43.00 0.26 9.10 370.1
4 8 57.90 42.10 0.01 9.00 379.1
4 9 55.90 48.20 0.81 11.05 390.1
4 10 52.00 41.00 1.01 5.50 395.6
4 11 52.00 39.20 0.09 4.89 400.5
4 12 50.00 37.00 0.07 3.47 404.0
4 13 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 409.7
4 14 61.00 35.10 0.00 8.27 418.0
4 15 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 425.3
4 16 51.80 42.80 0.21 6.30 431.6
4 17 51.10 39.00 0.16 4.40 436.0
4 18 50.00 35.10 0.22 3.20 439.2
4 19 52.00 37.90 0.15 4.58 443.8
4 20 48.20 35.60 0.53 2.48 446.2
4 21 57.90 46.40 0.00 11.15 457.4
4 22 70.00 50.00 0.26 19.00 476.4
4 23 57.00 46.40 0.01 10.70 487.1
4 24 57.90 42.10 0.02 9.00 496.1
4 25 66.20 37.00 0.00 11.24 507.3
4 26 75.20 42.10 0.00 17.65 525.0
4 27 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 548.4
4 28 91.40 48.20 0.00 28.80 577.2
4 29 81.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 602.6
4 30 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 617.9
5 1 62.60 48.00 0.00 14.30 632.2
5 2 63.00 51.10 0.00 16.05 648.2
5 3 72.00 44.60 0.00 17.30 665.5
5 4 57.20 46.00 0.40 10.60 676.1
5 5 59.00 48.00 1.56 12.50 688.6
5 6 64.40 48.00 0.03 15.20 703.8
5 7 64.40 43.00 0.00 12.70 716.5
5 8 57.90 46.40 0.01 11.15 727.7
5 9 64.90 48.00 0.12 15.45 743.1
5 10 75.20 42.80 0.00 18.00 761.1
5 11 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 781.8
5 12 84.90 48.20 0.00 25.55 807.4
5 13 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 839.5
5 14 93.20 57.20 0.00 34.20 873.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 15 88.00 55.40 0.00 30.70 904.4
5 16 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 932.0
5 17 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 963.5 Peak female adult emergence
5 18 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 989.3
5 19 84.20 52.00 0.00 27.10 1016.4 Peak egg laying
5 20 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 1044.1
5 21 70.00 53.10 0.00 20.55 1064.7
5 22 64.90 48.00 0.00 15.45 1080.1
5 23 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1096.3
5 24 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 1115.9
5 25 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1140.2
5 26 84.90 52.00 0.00 27.45 1167.7
5 27 75.20 52.00 0.00 22.60 1190.3
5 28 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1210.1
5 29 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1233.4
5 30 69.10 46.40 0.00 16.75 1250.1
5 31 66.90 44.10 0.00 14.50 1264.6
6 1 72.00 42.10 0.00 16.05 1280.7 Peak egg hatch
6 2 77.00 44.10 0.00 19.55 1300.2
6 3 80.60 44.10 0.00 21.35 1321.6
6 4 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 1343.2
6 5 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 1368.4
6 6 91.40 53.60 0.00 31.50 1399.9
6 7 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 1426.2
6 8 72.00 48.20 0.00 19.10 1445.3
6 9 64.40 53.60 0.01 18.00 1463.3
6 10 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1488.3
6 11 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1515.3
6 12 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 1545.0
6 13 75.90 53.10 0.00 23.50 1568.5
6 14 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1587.9
6 15 75.90 46.40 0.00 20.15 1608.1
6 16 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 1634.2
6 17 70.00 53.10 0.00 20.55 1654.7
6 18 61.00 48.00 0.25 13.50 1668.2
6 19 59.00 46.00 0.18 11.50 1679.7
6 20 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1695.4
6 21 78.80 46.00 0.00 21.40 1716.8
6 22 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 1746.6
6 23 79.00 53.60 0.00 25.30 1771.9
6 24 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 1797.3
6 25 84.20 48.90 0.00 25.55 1822.9
6 26 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 1849.0
6 27 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 1876.0
6 28 87.80 53.10 0.00 29.45 1905.4
6 29 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 1937.1
6 30 70.70 57.20 0.00 22.95 1960.1 Px
7 1 86.00 52.00 0.00 28.00 1988.1
7 2 88.00 55.90 0.00 30.95 2019.0
7 3 90.00 54.00 0.00 31.00 2050.0
7 4 96.10 55.90 0.00 35.00 2085.0 Peak in density large larvae
7 5 75.70 62.10 0.00 27.90 2112.9 Px
7 6 68.20 57.90 0.00 22.05 2135.0 Px Vn
7 7 72.20 53.50 0.00 21.85 2156.8 Px Vn
7 8 76.30 53.50 0.00 23.90 2180.7 Px Vn
7 9 76.80 52.40 0.00 23.60 2204.3 Px Vn
7 10 81.00 55.60 0.00 27.30 2231.6 Px Vn
7 11 77.40 56.00 0.00 25.70 2257.3 Px Vn
7 12 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 2287.8
7 13 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 2319.3
7 14 93.90 60.80 0.00 36.35 2355.7
7 15 98.60 60.10 0.00 38.35 2394.0
7 16 93.20 57.00 0.00 34.10 2428.1
7 17 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 2454.9
7 18 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 2486.2
7 19 93.90 57.20 0.00 34.55 2520.8
7 20 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 2551.4
7 21 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 2582.7
7 22 91.40 55.40 0.00 32.40 2615.1
7 23 89.10 59.00 0.00 33.05 2648.1
7 24 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 2674.0
7 25 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 2703.0
7 26 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 2731.9
7 27 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2759.8
7 28 91.20 56.80 0.00 33.00 2792.8 Px Hn
7 29 93.90 56.50 0.00 34.20 2827.0 Px Hn
7 30 97.30 58.90 0.00 37.10 2864.1 Px Hn
7 31 87.50 58.80 0.00 32.15 2896.3 Px Hn
8 1 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 2927.8
8 2 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 2959.3
8 3 89.60 54.00 0.00 30.80 2990.1
8 4 88.00 57.20 0.00 31.60 3021.7
8 5 87.10 59.00 0.00 32.05 3053.7
8 6 84.20 66.00 0.00 34.10 3087.8
8 7 87.80 64.00 0.00 34.90 3122.7
8 8 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 3156.0
8 9 84.90 59.00 0.00 30.95 3187.0
8 10 82.40 62.60 0.00 31.50 3218.5
8 11 87.10 57.20 0.00 31.15 3249.6
8 12 91.00 59.00 0.00 34.00 3283.6
8 13 102.20 64.00 0.00 42.10 3325.7
8 14 105.80 64.40 0.00 44.10 3369.8
8 15 102.20 69.10 0.00 44.65 3414.5
8 16 104.00 64.90 0.00 43.45 3457.9
8 17 93.20 66.90 0.00 39.05 3497.0
8 18 84.00 57.90 0.00 29.95 3526.9
8 19 89.60 51.10 0.00 29.35 3556.3
8 20 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 3586.9
8 21 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 3614.8
8 22 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 3637.3
8 23 80.10 50.00 0.00 24.05 3661.4
8 24 91.00 53.10 0.00 31.05 3692.4
8 25 93.20 68.00 0.00 39.60 3732.0
8 26 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 3764.3
8 27 84.20 58.20 0.00 30.20 3794.5 Px Vn
8 28 70.00 57.20 0.10 22.60 3817.1
8 29 79.30 59.80 0.00 28.55 3845.7 Px Vn
8 30 80.60 55.90 0.00 27.25 3872.9
8 31 64.40 57.00 0.85 19.70 3892.6
9 1 81.00 60.80 0.54 29.90 3922.5
9 2 88.00 57.00 0.07 31.50 3954.0
9 3 75.00 55.90 0.01 24.45 3978.5
9 4 69.10 54.00 0.00 20.55 3999.0
9 5 75.00 53.10 0.00 23.05 4022.1
9 6 80.10 48.00 0.00 23.05 4045.1
9 7 75.90 55.90 0.00 24.90 4070.0
9 8 80.10 51.80 0.00 24.95 4095.0
9 9 87.80 51.10 0.00 28.45 4123.4
9 10 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 4150.2
9 11 67.90 53.70 0.00 19.80 4170.0 Px Hn
9 12 81.00 64.00 0.00 31.50 4201.5
9 13 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 4230.5
9 14 87.80 51.10 0.00 28.45 4258.9
9 15 91.90 53.10 0.00 31.50 4290.4
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 KSLE Salem: McNary Field Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-14-23 | 874 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-17-23 | 963 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-19-23 | 1016 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-1-23 | 1281 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-4-23 | 2085 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2419466)
