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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.90 32.00 0.00 1.65 1.6 * START *
1 2 46.90 33.80 0.11 1.77 3.4
1 3 48.90 37.40 0.18 3.03 6.5
1 4 46.90 37.00 0.24 2.08 8.5
1 5 61.00 37.90 0.04 8.94 17.5
1 6 57.20 35.60 0.13 6.58 24.0
1 7 53.60 42.80 0.17 7.20 31.2
1 8 52.00 39.00 0.10 4.84 36.1
1 9 53.60 37.00 0.32 5.16 41.2
1 10 50.00 32.00 0.06 2.86 44.1
1 11 51.80 39.20 0.58 4.79 48.9
1 12 53.60 44.60 0.07 8.10 57.0
1 13 54.00 46.40 0.18 9.20 66.2
1 14 55.40 41.00 0.09 7.20 73.4
1 15 52.00 44.10 0.74 7.05 80.4
1 16 71.60 39.00 0.11 14.51 95.0
1 17 57.90 46.00 0.01 10.95 105.9
1 18 48.90 39.00 1.45 3.34 109.2
1 19 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 111.5
1 20 37.90 35.10 0.00 0.00 111.5
1 21 46.40 33.80 0.03 1.58 113.1
1 22 46.40 30.90 0.00 1.41 114.5
1 23 48.90 32.00 0.00 2.42 116.9
1 24 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 117.7
1 25 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 118.5
1 26 45.00 39.20 0.00 1.54 120.1
1 27 52.00 39.00 0.01 4.84 124.9
1 28 48.20 36.00 0.20 2.52 127.4
1 29 39.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 127.4
1 30 41.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 127.4
1 31 43.00 23.00 0.00 0.27 127.7
2 1 48.90 23.00 0.00 1.91 129.6
2 2 45.00 23.00 0.00 0.74 130.3
2 3 53.60 32.00 0.18 4.39 134.7
2 4 50.00 39.20 0.06 3.92 138.7
2 5 48.90 39.00 0.23 3.34 142.0
2 6 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 145.5
2 7 51.10 41.00 0.20 5.05 150.6
2 8 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 154.5
2 9 55.90 30.00 0.04 5.14 159.7
2 10 55.40 41.00 0.01 7.20 166.9
2 11 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 168.8
2 12 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 170.1
2 13 46.90 35.10 0.25 1.88 172.0
2 14 45.00 30.90 0.01 0.93 172.9
2 15 46.40 24.80 0.00 1.18 174.1
2 16 46.90 28.00 0.00 1.45 175.5
2 17 55.90 33.10 0.00 5.55 181.1
2 18 54.00 39.20 0.00 5.87 187.0
2 19 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 191.4
2 20 54.00 42.10 0.09 7.05 198.4
2 21 46.90 35.10 0.14 1.88 200.3
2 22 39.20 33.10 0.58 0.00 200.3
2 23 36.00 24.10 0.02 0.00 200.3
2 24 37.90 23.00 0.00 0.00 200.3
2 25 45.00 19.40 0.19 0.68 201.0
2 26 43.00 33.80 0.28 0.41 201.4
2 27 48.20 33.80 0.13 2.29 203.7
2 28 43.00 32.00 0.43 0.37 204.0
3 1 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 205.4
3 2 48.20 35.10 0.04 2.42 207.8
3 3 46.90 33.10 0.07 1.72 209.5
3 4 45.00 33.80 0.16 1.06 210.6
3 5 42.80 30.20 0.23 0.29 210.9
3 6 51.80 35.60 0.11 4.07 215.0
3 7 50.00 30.90 0.06 2.77 217.7
3 8 46.90 30.00 0.05 1.54 219.3
3 9 48.90 39.20 0.42 3.39 222.6
3 10 46.90 35.60 0.13 1.93 224.6
3 11 55.00 35.10 0.02 5.46 230.0
3 12 55.40 30.00 0.51 4.93 235.0
3 13 52.00 37.00 1.25 4.40 239.4
3 14 53.60 30.00 0.01 4.16 243.5
3 15 53.60 33.80 0.02 4.62 248.1
3 16 62.60 30.00 0.00 8.11 256.3
3 17 62.60 30.20 0.00 8.15 264.4
3 18 66.20 34.00 0.00 10.52 274.9
3 19 51.80 42.80 0.25 6.30 281.2
3 20 50.00 42.10 0.01 5.05 286.3
3 21 64.40 30.90 0.00 9.08 295.4
3 22 63.00 35.10 0.00 9.23 304.6
3 23 46.90 37.00 0.24 2.08 306.7
3 24 48.00 33.80 0.25 2.21 308.9
3 25 45.00 33.10 0.12 1.02 309.9
3 26 48.90 30.20 0.05 2.29 312.2
3 27 46.90 28.90 0.10 1.49 313.7
3 28 48.20 37.00 0.38 2.66 316.3
3 29 57.90 33.10 0.00 6.46 322.8
3 30 55.40 39.00 0.00 6.50 329.3
3 31 50.00 42.10 0.71 5.05 334.3
4 1 51.80 37.40 0.35 4.38 338.7
4 2 46.00 35.10 0.16 1.52 340.2
4 3 51.80 33.80 0.04 3.82 344.1
4 4 48.90 35.10 0.04 2.72 346.8
4 5 51.10 35.10 0.23 3.68 350.5
4 6 57.00 46.00 0.56 10.50 361.0
4 7 57.20 43.00 0.26 9.10 370.1
4 8 57.90 42.10 0.01 9.00 379.1
4 9 55.90 48.20 0.81 11.05 390.1
4 10 52.00 41.00 1.01 5.50 395.6
4 11 52.00 39.20 0.09 4.89 400.5
4 12 50.00 37.00 0.07 3.47 404.0
4 13 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 409.7
4 14 61.00 35.10 0.00 8.27 418.0
4 15 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 425.3
4 16 51.80 42.80 0.21 6.30 431.6
4 17 51.10 39.00 0.16 4.40 436.0
4 18 50.00 35.10 0.22 3.20 439.2
4 19 52.00 37.90 0.15 4.58 443.8
4 20 48.20 35.60 0.53 2.48 446.2
4 21 57.90 46.40 0.00 11.15 457.4
4 22 70.00 50.00 0.26 19.00 476.4
4 23 57.00 46.40 0.01 10.70 487.1
4 24 57.90 42.10 0.02 9.00 496.1
4 25 66.20 37.00 0.00 11.24 507.3
4 26 75.20 42.10 0.00 17.65 525.0
4 27 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 548.4
4 28 91.40 48.20 0.00 28.80 577.2
4 29 81.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 602.6
4 30 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 617.9
5 1 62.60 48.00 0.00 14.30 632.2
5 2 63.00 51.10 0.00 16.05 648.2
5 3 72.00 44.60 0.00 17.30 665.5
5 4 57.20 46.00 0.40 10.60 676.1
5 5 59.00 48.00 1.56 12.50 688.6
5 6 64.40 48.00 0.03 15.20 703.8
5 7 64.40 43.00 0.00 12.70 716.5
5 8 57.90 46.40 0.01 11.15 727.7
5 9 64.90 48.00 0.12 15.45 743.1
5 10 75.20 42.80 0.00 18.00 761.1
5 11 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 781.8
5 12 84.90 48.20 0.00 25.55 807.4
5 13 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 839.5
5 14 93.20 57.20 0.00 34.20 873.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 15 88.00 55.40 0.00 30.70 904.4
5 16 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 932.0
5 17 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 963.5 Peak female adult emergence
5 18 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 989.3
5 19 84.20 52.00 0.00 27.10 1016.4 Peak egg laying
5 20 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 1044.1
5 21 70.00 53.10 0.00 20.55 1064.7
5 22 64.90 48.00 0.00 15.45 1080.1
5 23 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1096.3
5 24 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 1115.9
5 25 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1140.2
5 26 84.90 52.00 0.00 27.45 1167.7
5 27 75.20 52.00 0.00 22.60 1190.3
5 28 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1210.1
5 29 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1233.4
5 30 69.10 46.40 0.00 16.75 1250.1
5 31 66.90 44.10 0.00 14.50 1264.6
6 1 72.00 42.10 0.00 16.05 1280.7 Peak egg hatch
6 2 77.00 44.10 0.00 19.55 1300.2
6 3 80.60 44.10 0.00 21.35 1321.6
6 4 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 1343.2
6 5 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 1368.4
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1368.
QA 100% ok
| |
| This year is about | versus | QA |
| same day | 2022 | ok |
| 5 days behind | 2021 | ok |
| 7 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 6 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 1393.9 Sunny
6 7 90.00 56.00 0.00 32.00 1425.9 Partly_Cloudy
6 8 85.00 54.00 0.00 28.50 1454.4 Partly_Cloudy_2%_precip
6 9 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 1481.4 Partly_Cloudy_3%_precip
6 10 75.00 55.00 0.00 24.00 1505.4 Partly_Cloudy_8%_precip
6 11 77.00 53.00 0.00 24.00 1529.4 Partly_Cloudy_9%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 74.50 50.70 0.03 21.60 1551.0 *hist_fcst*
6 13 72.80 51.30 0.17 21.05 1572.0 *hist_fcst*
6 14 68.40 49.70 0.12 18.05 1590.1 *hist_fcst*
6 15 70.70 48.60 0.02 18.65 1608.7 *hist_fcst*
6 16 71.50 50.10 0.04 19.80 1628.5 *hist_fcst*
6 17 73.60 50.80 0.03 21.20 1649.7 *hist_fcst*
6 18 76.60 51.50 0.00 23.05 1672.8 *hist_fcst*
6 19 75.80 50.90 0.02 22.35 1695.1 *hist_fcst*
6 20 78.30 50.50 0.02 23.40 1718.5 *hist_fcst*
6 21 77.60 52.90 0.02 24.25 1742.8 *hist_fcst*
6 22 78.00 52.00 0.00 24.00 1766.8 *hist_fcst*
6 23 79.20 51.80 0.04 24.50 1791.3 *hist_fcst*
6 24 77.90 54.20 0.08 25.05 1816.3 *hist_fcst*
6 25 79.70 54.10 0.01 25.90 1842.2 *hist_fcst*
6 26 80.10 55.10 0.06 26.60 1868.8 *hist_fcst*
6 27 81.60 56.10 0.04 27.85 1896.7 *hist_fcst*
6 28 80.80 55.50 0.04 27.15 1923.8 *hist_fcst*
6 29 80.90 54.40 0.00 26.65 1950.5 *hist_fcst*
6 30 81.30 54.60 0.00 26.95 1977.4 *hist_fcst*
7 1 81.20 56.30 0.03 27.75 2005.2 *hist_fcst*
7 2 81.30 56.40 0.00 27.85 2033.0 *hist_fcst*
7 3 81.70 55.10 0.01 27.40 2060.4 *hist_fcst*
7 4 80.10 53.80 0.00 25.95 2086.4 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 5 81.20 53.30 0.00 26.25 2112.6 *hist_fcst*
7 6 83.00 53.90 0.00 27.45 2140.1 *hist_fcst*
7 7 82.00 54.40 0.00 27.20 2167.3 *hist_fcst*
7 8 80.30 55.00 0.01 26.65 2193.9 *hist_fcst*
7 9 84.00 54.50 0.01 28.25 2222.2 *hist_fcst*
7 10 81.70 55.40 0.05 27.55 2249.7 *hist_fcst*
7 11 80.80 54.80 0.00 26.80 2276.5 *hist_fcst*
7 12 81.80 55.20 0.00 27.50 2304.0 *hist_fcst*
7 13 84.60 56.00 0.00 29.30 2333.3 *hist_fcst*
7 14 82.70 55.20 0.03 27.95 2361.3 *hist_fcst*
7 15 87.00 55.10 0.00 30.05 2391.3 *hist_fcst*
7 16 84.00 56.10 0.01 29.05 2420.4 *hist_fcst*
7 17 83.30 56.20 0.00 28.75 2449.1 *hist_fcst*
7 18 81.80 55.10 0.00 27.45 2476.6 *hist_fcst*
7 19 83.70 55.10 0.00 28.40 2505.0 *hist_fcst*
7 20 84.40 54.60 0.00 28.50 2533.5 *hist_fcst*
7 21 81.80 53.90 0.00 26.85 2560.3 *hist_fcst*
7 22 82.80 54.60 0.01 27.70 2588.0 *hist_fcst*
7 23 81.70 54.60 0.01 27.15 2615.2 *hist_fcst*
7 24 82.30 54.20 0.03 27.25 2642.4 *hist_fcst*
7 25 85.10 54.80 0.00 28.95 2671.4 *hist_fcst*
7 26 87.50 55.40 0.00 30.45 2701.8 *hist_fcst*
7 27 89.40 55.90 0.00 31.65 2733.5 *hist_fcst*
7 28 85.20 55.90 0.00 29.55 2763.0 *hist_fcst*
7 29 88.30 55.70 0.00 31.00 2794.0 *hist_fcst*
7 30 90.70 57.80 0.00 33.25 2827.3 *hist_fcst*
7 31 88.70 57.60 0.00 32.15 2859.4 *hist_fcst*
8 1 87.70 57.30 0.01 31.50 2890.9 *hist_fcst*
8 2 87.60 57.30 0.00 31.45 2922.4 *hist_fcst*
8 3 84.40 58.40 0.00 30.40 2952.8 *hist_fcst*
8 4 87.70 57.70 0.00 31.70 2984.5 *hist_fcst*
8 5 92.20 57.50 0.00 33.85 3018.3 *hist_fcst*
8 6 86.80 56.10 0.01 30.45 3048.8 *hist_fcst*
8 7 85.10 55.60 0.00 29.35 3078.1 *hist_fcst*
8 8 83.50 55.50 0.00 28.50 3106.6 *hist_fcst*
8 9 80.60 55.70 0.02 27.15 3133.8 *hist_fcst*
8 10 85.20 56.60 0.00 29.90 3163.7 *hist_fcst*
8 11 86.50 57.30 0.02 30.90 3194.6 *hist_fcst*
8 12 86.20 58.00 0.00 31.10 3225.7 *hist_fcst*
8 13 85.50 57.20 0.02 30.35 3256.0 *hist_fcst*
8 14 87.20 56.20 0.00 30.70 3286.7 *hist_fcst*
8 15 86.20 57.30 0.00 30.75 3317.5 *hist_fcst*
8 16 87.00 57.80 0.00 31.40 3348.9 *hist_fcst*
8 17 86.50 56.90 0.00 30.70 3379.6 *hist_fcst*
8 18 85.20 56.20 0.00 29.70 3409.3 *hist_fcst*
8 19 88.00 55.50 0.00 30.75 3440.0 *hist_fcst*
8 20 87.20 56.40 0.00 30.80 3470.8 *hist_fcst*
8 21 83.40 55.00 0.00 28.20 3499.0 *hist_fcst*
8 22 82.50 54.70 0.01 27.60 3526.6 *hist_fcst*
8 23 81.20 53.10 0.00 26.15 3552.8 *hist_fcst*
8 24 80.90 52.40 0.00 25.65 3578.4 *hist_fcst*
8 25 81.60 51.60 0.00 25.60 3604.0 *hist_fcst*
8 26 82.30 53.20 0.01 26.75 3630.8 *hist_fcst*
8 27 84.60 55.30 0.01 28.95 3659.7 *hist_fcst*
8 28 85.30 55.40 0.00 29.35 3689.1 *hist_fcst*
8 29 86.50 55.60 0.04 30.05 3719.1 *hist_fcst*
8 30 81.70 55.20 0.04 27.45 3746.6 *hist_fcst*
8 31 76.60 53.60 0.02 24.10 3770.7 *hist_fcst*
9 1 78.00 53.10 0.01 24.55 3795.2 *hist_fcst*
9 2 80.70 53.30 0.03 26.00 3821.2 *hist_fcst*
9 3 81.90 52.90 0.00 26.40 3847.6 *hist_fcst*
9 4 81.40 52.10 0.01 25.75 3873.4 *hist_fcst*
9 5 81.30 52.40 0.01 25.85 3899.2 *hist_fcst*
9 6 82.70 54.90 0.27 27.80 3927.0 *hist_fcst*
9 7 82.20 53.80 0.01 27.00 3954.0 *hist_fcst*
9 8 82.40 54.40 0.01 27.40 3981.4 *hist_fcst*
9 9 78.70 55.20 0.05 25.95 4007.4 *hist_fcst*
9 10 79.40 54.40 0.02 25.90 4033.3 *hist_fcst*
9 11 77.60 52.10 0.04 23.85 4057.1 *hist_fcst*
9 12 79.60 51.00 0.01 24.30 4081.4 *hist_fcst*
9 13 80.10 51.10 0.01 24.60 4106.0 *hist_fcst*
9 14 77.40 50.50 0.00 22.95 4129.0 *hist_fcst*
9 15 78.10 49.40 0.01 22.75 4151.7 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 KSLE Salem: McNary Field DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1368. QA 100% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | | | This year is about | versus | QA | | same day | 2022 | ok | | 5 days behind | 2021 | ok | | 7 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
| Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-14-23 | 874 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-17-23 | 963 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-19-23 | 1016 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-1-23 | 1281 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-4-23 | 2086 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?23748)
