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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 39.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 52.00 30.00 1.13 3.50 3.5
1 3 51.80 35.60 1.29 4.07 7.6
1 4 46.90 37.40 0.36 2.13 9.7
1 5 48.20 42.80 0.63 4.50 14.2
1 6 57.20 53.10 0.30 14.15 28.4
1 7 53.60 41.00 2.06 6.30 34.7
1 8 51.80 33.10 0.01 3.74 38.4
1 9 51.80 28.40 0.00 3.29 41.7
1 10 46.40 30.00 0.06 1.36 43.0
1 11 59.00 42.80 0.02 9.90 52.9
1 12 60.80 39.20 0.01 9.22 62.2
1 13 52.00 46.40 0.09 8.20 70.4
1 14 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 74.5
1 15 39.90 32.00 0.01 0.00 74.5
1 16 46.00 37.00 0.04 1.69 76.1
1 17 44.10 37.00 0.01 0.91 77.1
1 18 53.60 39.00 0.01 5.62 82.7
1 19 55.40 48.00 0.23 10.70 93.4
1 20 59.00 41.00 0.03 9.00 102.4
1 21 48.20 35.10 0.00 2.42 104.8
1 22 48.90 33.10 0.00 2.51 107.3
1 23 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.26 107.6
1 24 39.20 28.90 0.00 0.00 107.6
1 25 51.80 28.00 0.00 3.25 110.8
1 26 48.90 24.80 0.00 1.99 112.8
1 27 51.80 26.10 0.00 3.12 115.9
1 28 50.00 26.10 0.00 2.45 118.4
1 29 51.10 23.00 0.00 2.68 121.0
1 30 53.60 30.00 0.26 4.16 125.2
1 31 48.20 33.80 0.07 2.29 127.5
2 1 46.40 30.20 0.02 1.37 128.9
2 2 46.90 41.00 0.01 2.95 131.8
2 3 54.00 33.10 0.00 4.70 136.5
2 4 51.80 30.00 0.00 3.42 139.9
2 5 52.00 37.40 0.00 4.48 144.4
2 6 54.00 30.00 0.00 4.33 148.8
2 7 55.90 32.00 0.00 5.40 154.2
2 8 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 158.2
2 9 61.00 33.80 0.00 8.02 166.2
2 10 48.90 37.00 0.00 2.97 169.2
2 11 66.90 44.60 0.00 14.75 184.0
2 12 64.90 35.60 0.00 10.25 194.2
2 13 62.60 30.00 0.00 8.11 202.3
2 14 51.80 39.20 0.21 4.79 207.1
2 15 50.00 35.10 0.00 3.20 210.3
2 16 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 216.6
2 17 52.00 33.10 0.00 3.82 220.4
2 18 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 226.4
2 19 51.80 35.10 0.00 4.00 230.4
2 20 51.80 37.90 0.04 4.49 234.9
2 21 45.00 37.00 0.21 1.27 236.2
2 22 42.80 25.00 0.00 0.25 236.4
2 23 39.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 236.4
2 24 44.10 24.80 0.01 0.54 237.0
2 25 50.00 21.90 0.00 2.24 239.2
2 26 45.00 28.40 0.23 0.86 240.1
2 27 59.00 42.10 0.61 9.55 249.6
2 28 62.60 55.40 1.78 18.00 267.6
3 1 60.80 52.00 0.35 15.40 283.0
3 2 55.40 48.20 0.73 10.80 293.8
3 3 54.00 41.00 0.08 6.50 300.3
3 4 52.00 36.00 0.03 4.23 304.5
3 5 55.90 33.10 0.00 5.55 310.1
3 6 53.10 32.00 0.00 4.17 314.3
3 7 61.00 30.20 0.00 7.42 321.7
3 8 53.60 37.00 0.00 5.16 326.8
3 9 54.00 33.80 0.18 4.80 331.6
3 10 53.60 24.80 0.00 3.72 335.4
3 11 62.60 28.40 0.00 7.88 343.2
3 12 57.90 32.00 0.91 6.29 349.5
3 13 52.00 44.10 0.42 7.05 356.6
3 14 57.20 46.40 0.31 10.80 367.4
3 15 57.90 44.10 0.03 10.00 377.4
3 16 60.80 37.40 0.00 8.71 386.1
3 17 54.00 37.00 0.03 5.34 391.4
3 18 60.80 46.40 0.10 12.60 404.0
3 19 55.40 39.20 0.07 6.56 410.6
3 20 50.00 37.40 0.02 3.54 414.1
3 21 54.00 44.60 0.18 8.30 422.4
3 22 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 440.4
3 23 62.60 44.10 0.01 12.35 452.8
3 24 63.00 37.40 0.00 9.78 462.6
3 25 61.00 44.10 0.00 11.55 474.1
3 26 69.10 48.90 0.00 18.00 492.1
3 27 69.80 48.00 0.00 17.90 510.0
3 28 62.60 48.90 0.02 14.75 524.8
3 29 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 537.3
3 30 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 546.3
3 31 57.90 37.40 0.00 7.30 553.6
4 1 63.00 35.60 0.05 9.34 562.9
4 2 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 572.2
4 3 59.00 39.20 0.75 8.33 580.5
4 4 55.90 41.00 0.24 7.45 588.0
4 5 55.90 37.90 0.01 6.46 594.4
4 6 66.20 35.10 0.00 10.76 605.2
4 7 78.80 39.20 0.00 18.16 623.4
4 8 59.00 42.80 0.07 9.90 633.3
4 9 55.00 37.00 0.11 5.82 639.1
4 10 46.40 41.00 0.66 2.70 641.8
4 11 50.00 37.00 0.31 3.47 645.3
4 12 48.20 36.00 0.37 2.52 647.8
4 13 48.90 33.10 0.12 2.51 650.3
4 14 50.00 30.00 0.31 2.70 653.0
4 15 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 658.2
4 16 53.60 33.80 0.02 4.62 662.8
4 17 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 668.8
4 18 52.00 44.10 0.52 7.05 675.8
4 19 52.00 42.10 0.43 6.05 681.9
4 20 55.40 37.00 0.41 6.01 687.9
4 21 59.00 41.00 0.05 9.00 696.9
4 22 63.00 39.00 0.00 10.25 707.1
4 23 66.90 37.00 0.00 11.58 718.7
4 24 70.00 37.40 0.01 13.21 731.9
4 25 59.00 46.90 0.02 11.95 743.9
4 26 59.00 42.10 0.05 9.55 753.4
4 27 57.90 44.60 0.03 10.25 763.7
4 28 57.90 44.10 1.00 10.00 773.7
4 29 61.00 44.60 0.32 11.80 785.5
4 30 57.20 46.90 0.49 11.05 796.5
5 1 66.20 46.00 0.18 15.10 811.6
5 2 54.00 46.00 0.27 9.00 820.6
5 3 63.00 48.00 0.00 14.50 835.1
5 4 75.00 44.10 0.00 18.55 853.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 5 61.00 46.40 0.72 12.70 866.4
5 6 61.00 50.00 0.77 14.50 880.9
5 7 57.90 43.00 0.14 9.45 890.3
5 8 53.10 39.90 0.11 5.64 895.9
5 9 55.90 39.00 0.01 6.75 902.7
5 10 61.00 42.10 0.00 10.55 913.2
5 11 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 923.4
5 12 53.60 41.00 0.39 6.30 929.7
5 13 57.90 36.00 0.56 6.99 936.6
5 14 69.80 55.00 0.08 21.40 958.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 15 72.00 55.00 0.02 22.50 980.5
5 16 64.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 997.0
5 17 68.00 42.80 0.01 14.40 1011.4 Peak egg laying
5 18 64.00 45.00 0.15 13.50 1024.9
5 19 60.80 44.10 0.03 11.45 1036.3
5 20 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 1046.5
5 21 73.40 41.00 0.00 16.20 1062.7
5 22 75.90 44.10 0.00 19.00 1081.7
5 23 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 1102.6
5 24 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 1119.7
5 25 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 1144.4
5 26 75.90 55.40 0.09 24.65 1169.0
5 27 64.90 52.00 0.00 17.45 1186.5
5 28 63.00 51.10 0.53 16.05 1202.5
5 29 61.00 50.00 0.02 14.50 1217.0
5 30 64.90 48.00 0.04 15.45 1232.5
5 31 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1254.1
6 1 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1280.2 Peak egg hatch
6 2 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 1305.0
6 3 66.20 55.00 0.07 19.60 1324.6
6 4 66.00 55.00 0.63 19.50 1344.1
6 5 71.60 57.00 0.27 23.30 1367.4
6 6 66.90 50.00 0.11 17.45 1384.9
6 7 72.00 44.60 0.00 17.30 1402.2
6 8 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 1427.3
6 9 78.80 53.10 0.53 24.95 1452.2
6 10 69.80 57.20 0.70 22.50 1474.7
6 11 68.00 55.00 0.01 20.50 1495.2
6 12 61.00 51.10 0.17 15.05 1510.3
6 13 61.00 46.40 0.01 12.70 1523.0
6 14 69.80 50.00 0.02 18.90 1541.9
6 15 70.00 48.20 0.00 18.10 1560.0
6 16 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 1581.5
6 17 64.40 52.00 0.21 17.20 1598.7
6 18 66.20 46.90 0.01 15.55 1614.2
6 19 66.20 53.60 0.01 18.90 1633.1
6 20 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 1656.3
6 21 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 1682.7
6 22 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 1711.3
6 23 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1732.9
6 24 84.90 48.90 0.00 25.90 1758.8
6 25 95.00 53.60 0.00 33.30 1792.1
6 26 99.00 59.00 0.00 38.00 1830.1
6 27 91.90 57.90 0.00 33.90 1864.0
6 28 72.00 53.60 0.00 21.80 1885.8
6 29 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 1910.8
6 30 82.40 52.00 0.00 26.20 1937.0
7 1 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 1964.0
7 2 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 1986.5
7 3 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 2011.6
7 4 80.60 51.10 0.01 24.85 2036.5
7 5 75.90 60.10 0.05 27.00 2063.5
7 6 75.90 62.10 0.04 28.00 2091.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 7 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 2121.2
7 8 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2149.1
7 9 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 2179.0
7 10 84.00 53.10 0.00 27.55 2206.6
7 11 100.40 60.80 0.00 39.60 2246.2
7 12 95.00 60.10 0.00 36.55 2282.7
7 13 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 2311.3
7 14 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 2341.8
7 15 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 2368.8
7 16 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 2398.5
7 17 79.00 55.90 0.00 26.45 2425.0
7 18 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2451.1
7 19 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 2485.5
7 20 93.90 59.00 0.00 35.45 2521.0
7 21 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 2549.9
7 22 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2577.9
7 23 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 2605.1
7 24 93.90 57.00 0.00 34.45 2639.6
7 25 100.90 64.00 0.00 41.45 2681.0
7 26 102.90 62.10 0.00 41.50 2722.5
7 27 99.00 62.60 0.00 39.80 2762.3
7 28 98.60 62.60 0.00 39.60 2801.9
7 29 100.90 66.20 0.00 42.55 2844.5
7 30 102.90 66.90 0.00 43.90 2888.4
7 31 99.00 62.60 0.00 39.80 2928.2
8 1 86.00 62.10 0.08 33.05 2961.2
8 2 91.90 57.20 0.00 33.55 2994.8
8 3 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 3026.3
8 4 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 3051.1
8 5 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 3079.4
8 6 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 3111.5
8 7 100.00 57.00 0.00 37.50 3149.0
8 8 82.90 55.40 0.00 28.15 3177.2
8 9 87.80 57.00 0.06 31.40 3208.6
8 10 79.00 60.10 0.00 28.55 3237.1
8 11 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 3266.9
8 12 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 3291.9
8 13 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 3319.6
8 14 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 3350.2
8 15 91.40 55.00 0.00 32.20 3382.4
8 16 93.20 55.00 0.00 33.10 3415.5
8 17 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 3454.0
8 18 89.60 64.00 0.00 35.80 3489.8
8 19 84.90 62.10 0.00 32.50 3522.3
8 20 82.40 62.10 0.00 31.25 3553.5
8 21 91.00 55.00 0.00 32.00 3585.5
8 22 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 3618.8
8 23 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 3652.1
8 24 91.90 55.40 0.00 32.65 3684.8
8 25 93.90 60.10 0.00 36.00 3720.8
8 26 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 3750.7
8 27 73.90 57.20 0.01 24.55 3775.3
8 28 82.40 51.10 0.00 25.75 3801.0
8 29 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 3834.5
8 30 97.00 59.00 0.00 37.00 3871.5
8 31 93.20 60.10 0.00 35.65 3907.1
9 1 91.90 51.80 0.00 30.85 3938.0
9 2 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 3969.3
9 3 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 3997.1
9 4 87.80 51.10 0.00 28.45 4025.5
9 5 82.90 55.40 0.00 28.15 4053.7
9 6 91.40 53.60 0.00 31.50 4085.2
9 7 88.00 54.00 0.00 30.00 4115.2
9 8 82.90 44.60 0.00 22.75 4137.9
9 9 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 4170.1
9 10 90.00 60.80 0.00 34.40 4204.5
9 11 81.00 60.10 0.00 29.55 4234.0
9 12 75.90 60.10 0.01 27.00 4261.0
9 13 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 4285.3
9 14 75.90 60.10 0.00 27.00 4312.3
9 15 75.20 60.10 0.00 26.65 4339.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 KSLE Salem: McNary Field Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-4-22 | 854 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-14-22 | 958 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-17-22 | 1011 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-1-22 | 1280 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-6-22 | 2091 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?26174)
