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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 53.60 46.00 0.43 8.80 8.8 * START *
1 2 51.80 46.00 1.64 7.90 16.7
1 3 51.80 42.80 0.14 6.30 23.0
1 4 53.60 42.10 0.82 6.85 29.8
1 5 51.80 37.40 0.07 4.38 34.2
1 6 50.00 44.10 0.82 6.05 40.3
1 7 51.80 37.40 0.30 4.38 44.7
1 8 52.00 30.90 0.15 3.59 48.3
1 9 39.20 30.20 0.09 0.00 48.3
1 10 48.20 37.00 0.05 2.66 50.9
1 11 52.00 37.00 0.41 4.40 55.3
1 12 59.00 51.10 1.84 14.05 69.4
1 13 59.00 41.00 1.98 9.00 78.4
1 14 53.60 35.60 0.03 4.90 83.3
1 15 51.80 44.60 0.05 7.20 90.5
1 16 46.90 42.80 0.01 3.85 94.3
1 17 52.00 35.60 0.01 4.16 98.5
1 18 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 100.6
1 19 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 104.1
1 20 42.10 26.60 0.00 0.13 104.2
1 21 46.90 39.00 0.01 2.39 106.6
1 22 50.00 30.90 0.00 2.77 109.4
1 23 46.90 26.10 0.00 1.38 110.8
1 24 39.20 35.60 0.27 0.00 110.8
1 25 44.60 33.10 0.02 0.88 111.7
1 26 39.90 32.00 0.62 0.00 111.7
1 27 45.00 30.00 0.14 0.90 112.6
1 28 46.90 37.40 0.58 2.13 114.7
1 29 46.90 37.90 0.26 2.20 116.9
1 30 51.80 41.00 0.14 5.40 122.3
1 31 52.00 46.00 0.28 8.00 130.3
2 1 50.00 46.00 0.64 7.00 137.3
2 2 50.00 39.90 0.74 4.11 141.4
2 3 48.90 35.60 0.03 2.78 144.2
2 4 46.90 35.60 0.00 1.93 146.1
2 5 52.00 37.00 0.02 4.40 150.5
2 6 48.20 37.00 0.02 2.66 153.2
2 7 48.20 33.80 0.02 2.29 155.5
2 8 46.40 36.00 0.00 1.76 157.2
2 9 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 159.2
2 10 46.90 26.10 0.00 1.38 160.5
2 11 41.00 30.00 0.42 0.00 160.5
2 12 30.20 28.40 3.91 0.00 160.5
2 13 36.00 30.00 2.27 0.00 160.5
2 14 48.20 30.20 0.57 2.02 162.6
2 15 53.60 44.10 0.05 7.85 170.4
2 16 52.00 39.00 0.02 4.84 175.2
2 17 50.00 33.10 0.00 2.97 178.2
2 18 46.90 37.00 0.43 2.08 180.3
2 19 48.90 41.00 0.11 3.95 184.2
2 20 50.00 35.60 0.01 3.26 187.5
2 21 48.90 42.10 0.02 4.50 192.0
2 22 53.60 44.10 0.23 7.85 199.9
2 23 50.00 33.80 0.07 3.04 202.9
2 24 48.90 30.20 0.00 2.29 205.2
2 25 48.90 35.60 0.18 2.78 208.0
2 26 48.20 39.00 0.20 3.00 211.0
2 27 50.00 39.00 0.09 3.87 214.8
2 28 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 222.3
3 1 61.00 35.10 0.00 8.27 230.6
3 2 55.40 33.10 0.00 5.33 235.9
3 3 60.50 30.20 0.00 7.20 243.1 Px
3 4 56.80 39.50 0.00 7.34 250.4 Px Pn
3 5 48.90 41.00 0.53 3.95 254.4
3 6 51.80 39.00 0.07 4.74 259.1
3 7 51.10 37.00 0.11 3.98 263.1
3 8 52.00 33.10 0.11 3.82 266.9
3 9 55.40 33.80 0.10 5.43 272.4
3 10 54.00 33.10 0.00 4.70 277.1
3 11 57.90 30.90 0.00 6.13 283.2
3 12 60.80 30.00 0.00 7.30 290.5
3 13 62.60 28.40 0.00 7.88 298.4
3 14 50.00 39.00 0.44 3.87 302.2
3 15 50.00 30.00 0.01 2.70 304.9
3 16 52.00 28.00 0.00 3.33 308.3
3 17 62.10 30.20 0.00 7.92 316.2
3 18 52.00 37.00 0.21 4.40 320.6
3 19 52.00 42.10 0.09 6.05 326.6
3 20 54.00 37.40 0.27 5.43 332.1
3 21 48.90 37.40 0.54 3.03 335.1
3 22 54.00 37.00 0.06 5.34 340.5
3 23 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 345.9
3 24 48.20 39.00 0.16 3.00 348.9
3 25 54.00 35.10 0.00 5.00 353.9
3 26 57.90 30.20 0.00 6.04 359.9
3 27 64.40 33.80 0.00 9.62 369.5
3 28 52.00 37.40 0.12 4.48 374.0
3 29 53.60 32.00 0.08 4.39 378.4
3 30 55.40 28.40 0.00 4.76 383.2
3 31 66.90 30.20 0.00 10.12 393.3
4 1 70.00 39.20 0.00 13.79 407.1
4 2 62.60 35.10 0.00 9.04 416.1
4 3 64.90 37.40 0.00 10.71 426.8
4 4 60.80 35.10 0.00 8.18 435.0
4 5 57.20 28.40 0.00 5.52 440.5
4 6 64.40 33.80 0.00 9.62 450.1
4 7 51.80 35.60 0.05 4.07 454.2
4 8 57.20 37.90 0.47 7.09 461.3
4 9 59.00 30.20 0.01 6.53 467.8
4 10 52.00 35.60 0.05 4.16 472.0
4 11 57.90 28.40 0.00 5.82 477.8
4 12 64.90 33.80 0.00 9.86 487.7
4 13 64.90 35.10 0.00 10.14 497.8
4 14 69.80 33.80 0.00 12.20 510.0
4 15 78.80 37.00 0.00 17.43 527.4
4 16 82.40 39.20 0.00 19.96 547.4
4 17 84.90 42.10 0.00 22.50 569.9
4 18 84.90 44.60 0.00 23.75 593.6
4 19 77.00 42.80 0.00 18.90 612.5
4 20 75.90 48.20 0.00 21.05 633.6
4 21 78.10 43.00 0.00 19.55 653.1
4 22 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 666.6
4 23 62.10 41.00 0.00 10.55 677.2
4 24 55.40 46.00 0.21 9.70 686.9
4 25 61.00 46.40 0.47 12.70 699.6
4 26 63.00 46.00 0.00 13.50 713.1
4 27 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 726.6
4 28 75.20 39.90 0.00 16.63 743.2
4 29 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 764.7
4 30 73.90 50.00 0.70 20.95 785.7
5 1 60.10 50.00 2.36 14.05 799.7
5 2 68.00 46.90 0.01 16.45 816.2
5 3 69.10 46.00 0.03 16.55 832.7
5 4 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 852.3 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 5 80.60 46.40 0.00 22.50 874.8
5 6 64.40 48.00 0.05 15.20 890.0
5 7 61.00 41.00 0.05 10.00 900.0
5 8 63.00 35.60 0.00 9.34 909.3
5 9 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 926.3
5 10 72.00 46.40 0.00 18.20 944.5
5 11 77.00 44.10 0.00 19.55 964.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 12 81.00 45.00 0.00 22.00 986.0
5 13 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1010.3 Peak egg laying
5 14 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 1037.6
5 15 82.40 45.00 0.00 22.70 1060.3
5 16 84.20 46.90 0.00 24.55 1084.8
5 17 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1101.9
5 18 64.90 48.00 0.00 15.45 1117.4
5 19 60.10 42.80 0.09 10.45 1127.8
5 20 61.00 44.10 0.14 11.55 1139.4
5 21 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 1152.0
5 22 72.00 45.00 0.00 17.50 1169.5
5 23 66.00 48.20 0.04 16.10 1185.6
5 24 64.90 51.80 0.13 17.35 1202.9
5 25 64.40 53.60 0.06 18.00 1220.9
5 26 75.20 45.00 0.04 19.10 1240.0
5 27 64.90 50.00 0.09 16.45 1256.5
5 28 71.10 48.00 0.00 18.55 1275.0 Peak egg hatch
5 29 82.40 46.40 0.00 23.40 1298.4
5 30 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 1326.0
5 31 90.00 52.00 0.00 30.00 1356.0
6 1 97.00 60.80 0.00 37.90 1393.9
6 2 91.90 60.10 0.00 35.00 1428.9
6 3 87.10 55.40 0.00 30.25 1459.1
6 4 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 1484.0
6 5 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1501.1
6 6 68.00 43.00 0.03 14.50 1515.6
6 7 64.90 48.20 0.10 15.55 1531.1
6 8 69.10 48.00 0.01 17.55 1548.7
6 9 71.60 42.10 0.00 15.85 1564.5
6 10 69.10 46.00 0.00 16.55 1581.1
6 11 66.00 53.10 0.23 18.55 1599.6
6 12 80.10 53.60 0.71 25.85 1625.5
6 13 68.00 61.00 0.55 23.50 1649.0
6 14 73.90 57.00 0.11 24.45 1673.4
6 15 69.80 53.10 0.09 20.45 1693.9
6 16 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 1718.4
6 17 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 1745.4
6 18 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 1771.7
6 19 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 1798.4
6 20 91.90 60.10 0.00 35.00 1833.4
6 21 96.10 63.00 0.00 38.55 1871.9
6 22 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 1903.4
6 23 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 1934.0
6 24 91.40 55.00 0.00 32.20 1966.2
6 25 93.90 62.60 0.00 37.25 2003.5
6 26 105.80 66.90 0.00 45.35 2048.8
6 27 113.00 69.80 0.00 50.40 2099.2 Peak in density large larvae
6 28 117.00 68.00 0.00 51.50 2150.7
6 29 91.90 60.80 0.00 35.35 2186.1
6 30 77.00 60.10 0.00 27.55 2213.6
7 1 80.60 64.00 0.00 31.30 2244.9
7 2 88.00 64.40 0.00 35.20 2280.1
7 3 91.40 57.20 0.00 33.30 2313.4
7 4 90.00 57.20 0.00 32.60 2346.0
7 5 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 2378.5
7 6 95.00 57.20 0.00 35.10 2413.6
7 7 80.60 57.90 0.00 28.25 2441.9
7 8 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2469.9
7 9 91.90 53.60 0.00 31.75 2501.6
7 10 91.90 57.90 0.00 33.90 2535.5
7 11 91.40 57.00 0.00 33.20 2568.7
7 12 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 2601.2
7 13 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 2632.7
7 14 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 2663.3
7 15 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 2690.3
7 16 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 2717.1
7 17 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2745.9
7 18 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 2775.4
7 19 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 2807.1
7 20 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 2836.1
7 21 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2862.2
7 22 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 2888.5
7 23 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 2918.1
7 24 93.90 62.10 0.00 37.00 2955.1
7 25 93.90 60.10 0.00 36.00 2991.1
7 26 93.00 60.10 0.00 35.55 3026.6
7 27 91.40 60.80 0.00 35.10 3061.7
7 28 96.10 60.10 0.00 37.10 3098.8
7 29 100.00 64.00 0.00 41.00 3139.8
7 30 93.20 64.40 0.02 37.80 3177.6
7 31 86.00 69.10 0.14 36.55 3214.2
8 1 93.90 60.80 0.00 36.35 3250.5
8 2 96.10 62.10 0.00 38.10 3288.6
8 3 93.00 61.00 0.00 36.00 3324.6
8 4 97.00 60.10 0.00 37.55 3362.2
8 5 82.90 62.60 0.00 31.75 3393.9
8 6 86.00 64.00 0.00 34.00 3427.9
8 7 87.80 60.10 0.00 32.95 3460.9
8 8 79.00 55.40 0.00 26.20 3487.1
8 9 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 3517.7
8 10 95.00 60.10 0.00 36.55 3554.2
8 11 102.90 66.20 0.00 43.55 3597.8
8 12 102.90 69.10 0.00 45.00 3642.8
8 13 98.60 69.10 0.00 42.85 3685.6
8 14 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 3724.1
8 15 98.60 64.40 0.00 40.50 3764.6
8 16 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 3797.0
8 17 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 3820.5
8 18 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 3847.1
8 19 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 3876.1
8 20 75.90 60.80 0.00 27.35 3903.4
8 21 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 3928.9
8 22 71.60 54.00 0.00 21.80 3950.7
8 23 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 3970.6
8 24 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 3997.6
8 25 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 4023.7
8 26 81.00 60.10 0.02 29.55 4053.3
8 27 75.90 57.90 0.00 25.90 4079.2
8 28 89.60 50.00 0.00 28.80 4108.0
8 29 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 4140.5
8 30 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 4163.0
8 31 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 4185.5
9 1 80.10 48.00 0.00 23.05 4208.5
9 2 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 4235.5
9 3 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 4262.0
9 4 90.00 51.80 0.00 29.90 4291.9
9 5 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 4323.4
9 6 86.00 60.10 0.00 32.05 4355.4
9 7 88.00 55.40 0.00 30.70 4386.1
9 8 90.00 57.20 0.00 32.60 4418.7
9 9 87.10 55.90 0.00 30.50 4449.2
9 10 70.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 4472.7
9 11 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 4497.9
9 12 78.80 57.00 0.00 26.90 4524.8
9 13 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 4546.8
9 14 86.00 48.20 0.00 26.10 4572.9
9 15 75.00 55.00 0.00 24.00 4596.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 KSLE Salem: McNary Field Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-4-21 | 852 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-11-21 | 964 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-13-21 | 1010 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-28-21 | 1275 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-27-21 | 2099 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?35604)
