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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 45.00 28.00 0.00 0.84 0.8 * START *
1 2 39.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.8
1 3 32.00 24.10 0.29 0.00 0.8
1 4 35.60 30.90 0.07 0.00 0.8
1 5 39.90 33.10 0.04 0.00 0.8
1 6 43.00 32.00 0.06 0.37 1.2
1 7 43.00 35.10 0.05 0.44 1.7
1 8 39.90 36.00 0.07 0.00 1.7
1 9 46.00 35.10 0.03 1.52 3.2
1 10 46.90 28.00 0.00 1.45 4.6
1 11 45.00 28.00 0.16 0.84 5.5
1 12 45.00 41.00 1.06 2.00 7.5
1 13 55.00 41.00 0.31 7.00 14.5
1 14 45.00 41.00 0.23 2.00 16.5
1 15 51.10 39.90 0.23 4.65 21.1
1 16 53.10 41.00 0.45 6.05 27.2
1 17 50.00 39.90 0.95 4.11 31.3
1 18 54.00 37.90 0.34 5.54 36.8
1 19 48.00 44.10 0.96 5.05 41.9
1 20 48.90 39.90 0.07 3.57 45.4
1 21 54.00 46.00 0.56 9.00 54.4
1 22 60.10 46.90 0.58 12.50 66.9
1 23 53.10 44.10 0.13 7.60 74.5
1 24 48.90 42.10 0.01 4.50 79.0
1 25 57.90 42.10 0.00 9.00 88.0
1 26 59.00 48.90 0.09 12.95 101.0
1 27 62.10 46.90 0.07 13.50 114.5
1 28 61.00 43.00 0.77 11.00 125.5
1 29 53.10 42.10 0.46 6.60 132.1
1 30 46.00 35.10 0.15 1.52 133.6
1 31 48.00 33.10 0.12 2.15 135.7
2 1 46.90 35.10 0.00 1.88 137.6
2 2 50.00 34.00 0.03 3.07 140.7
2 3 48.00 41.00 0.25 3.50 144.2
2 4 55.90 44.10 0.01 9.00 153.2
2 5 59.00 37.00 0.15 7.74 160.9
2 6 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 166.1
2 7 61.00 42.10 0.00 10.55 176.6
2 8 64.90 36.00 0.00 10.35 187.0
2 9 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 195.0
2 10 62.10 39.00 0.00 9.80 204.8
2 11 59.00 48.90 0.10 12.95 217.8
2 12 57.00 43.00 0.16 9.00 226.8
2 13 50.00 42.10 0.34 5.05 231.8
2 14 57.20 48.90 0.12 12.05 243.9
2 15 62.10 48.90 0.00 14.50 258.4
2 16 59.00 48.00 0.02 12.50 270.9
2 17 61.00 46.00 0.22 12.50 283.4
2 18 50.00 43.00 0.44 5.50 288.9
2 19 48.90 39.90 0.35 3.57 292.4
2 20 54.00 35.10 0.01 5.00 297.4
2 21 54.00 33.10 0.12 4.70 302.1
2 22 55.00 36.00 0.00 5.62 307.8
2 23 60.10 30.90 0.00 7.12 314.9
2 24 63.00 37.00 0.00 9.68 324.6
2 25 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 334.7
2 26 57.00 39.90 0.28 7.57 342.3
2 27 60.10 45.00 0.05 11.55 353.8
2 28 55.00 42.10 0.16 7.55 361.4
2 29 55.00 39.00 0.14 6.30 367.7
3 1 57.00 46.40 0.14 10.70 378.4
3 2 55.90 41.00 0.48 7.45 385.8
3 3 64.00 43.00 0.03 12.50 398.3
3 4 61.00 37.90 0.27 8.94 407.3
3 5 63.00 50.00 0.25 15.50 422.8
3 6 54.00 46.00 0.21 9.00 431.8
3 7 55.90 37.00 0.05 6.25 438.0
3 8 48.90 35.10 0.11 2.72 440.7
3 9 59.00 46.00 0.72 11.50 452.2
3 10 59.00 39.90 0.22 8.56 460.8
3 11 51.10 37.00 0.23 3.98 464.8
3 12 51.10 42.10 0.63 5.60 470.4
3 13 53.10 42.10 1.06 6.60 477.0
3 14 51.10 39.90 0.20 4.65 481.6
3 15 46.90 42.10 0.38 3.50 485.1
3 16 54.00 37.00 0.04 5.34 490.5
3 17 64.00 30.90 0.00 8.90 499.4
3 18 66.90 39.00 0.00 12.18 511.6
3 19 64.90 45.00 0.01 13.95 525.5
3 20 61.00 46.90 0.46 12.95 538.5
3 21 53.10 45.00 0.37 8.05 546.5
3 22 55.00 42.80 0.35 7.90 554.4
3 23 54.00 44.10 0.06 8.05 562.5
3 24 55.90 41.00 0.01 7.45 569.9
3 25 54.00 39.90 0.01 6.08 576.0
3 26 59.00 37.00 0.15 7.74 583.7
3 27 54.00 41.00 0.10 6.50 590.2
3 28 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.78 597.0
3 29 64.90 33.10 0.00 9.72 606.7
3 30 72.00 37.00 0.00 14.08 620.8
3 31 73.90 39.90 0.00 15.98 636.8
4 1 77.00 42.10 0.00 18.55 655.3
4 2 71.10 42.10 0.00 15.60 670.9
4 3 71.10 44.10 0.00 16.60 687.5
4 4 57.90 38.70 0.01 7.64 695.2 Hn
4 5 62.10 41.00 0.00 10.55 705.7
4 6 73.00 37.90 0.00 14.84 720.6
4 7 87.10 45.00 0.00 25.05 745.6
4 8 81.00 48.90 0.00 23.95 769.6
4 9 66.90 46.90 0.00 15.90 785.5
4 10 62.10 46.90 0.00 13.50 799.0
4 11 62.10 50.00 0.00 15.05 814.0
4 12 60.10 46.90 0.12 12.50 826.5
4 13 61.00 46.00 0.33 12.50 839.0
4 14 55.90 43.00 0.51 8.45 847.5
4 15 63.00 39.00 0.00 10.25 857.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 16 69.10 41.00 0.00 14.05 871.8
4 17 84.00 44.10 0.00 23.05 894.8
4 18 88.00 48.00 0.00 27.00 921.8
4 19 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 948.8
4 20 78.10 48.00 0.00 22.05 970.9 Peak female adult emergence
4 21 75.90 46.00 0.34 19.95 990.8
4 22 66.00 48.90 0.33 16.45 1007.3 Peak egg laying
4 23 61.00 46.90 0.22 12.95 1020.2
4 24 55.90 42.10 0.07 8.00 1028.2
4 25 61.00 37.90 0.00 8.94 1037.2
4 26 60.10 35.10 0.06 7.85 1045.0
4 27 61.00 46.90 0.07 12.95 1058.0
4 28 64.00 45.00 0.00 13.50 1071.5
4 29 59.00 46.00 0.03 11.50 1083.0
4 30 66.90 39.00 0.00 12.18 1095.1
5 1 82.90 46.90 0.00 23.90 1119.0
5 2 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 1146.0
5 3 72.00 51.10 0.05 20.55 1166.6
5 4 64.00 54.00 0.01 18.00 1184.6
5 5 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1203.6
5 6 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 1226.6
5 7 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 1256.1
5 8 66.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 1273.5 Peak egg hatch
5 9 68.00 44.10 0.00 15.05 1288.6
5 10 80.10 42.10 0.00 20.10 1308.7
5 11 86.00 45.00 0.00 24.50 1333.2
5 12 82.90 46.90 0.00 23.90 1357.1
5 13 82.00 46.90 0.04 23.45 1380.5
5 14 57.00 53.10 0.41 14.05 1394.6
5 15 62.10 53.10 0.10 16.60 1411.2
5 16 61.00 51.10 0.01 15.05 1426.2
5 17 75.00 54.00 0.00 23.50 1449.7
5 18 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 1470.7
5 19 60.10 46.90 0.13 12.50 1483.2
5 20 64.00 46.00 0.00 14.00 1497.2
5 21 61.00 50.00 0.01 14.50 1511.7
5 22 64.90 48.90 0.42 15.90 1527.6
5 23 66.00 48.00 0.01 16.00 1543.6
5 24 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 1564.1
5 25 66.90 54.00 0.00 19.45 1583.6
5 26 64.00 51.10 0.00 16.55 1600.1
5 27 64.90 46.90 0.00 14.90 1615.0
5 28 73.90 41.00 0.00 16.45 1631.5
5 29 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 1652.0
5 30 78.10 46.90 0.00 21.50 1673.5
5 31 88.00 50.00 0.00 28.00 1701.5
6 1 82.90 53.10 0.10 27.00 1728.5
6 2 70.00 57.00 0.09 22.50 1751.0
6 3 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 1780.6
6 4 99.00 61.00 0.00 39.00 1819.6
6 5 95.00 64.90 0.00 38.95 1858.5
6 6 93.90 61.00 0.00 36.45 1895.0
6 7 91.90 55.00 0.00 32.45 1927.4
6 8 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 1952.9
6 9 62.10 51.10 0.15 15.60 1968.5
6 10 64.90 48.00 0.03 15.45 1983.9
6 11 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 2003.5
6 12 78.10 46.90 0.00 21.50 2025.0
6 13 64.90 51.10 0.03 17.00 2042.0
6 14 64.00 46.00 0.03 14.00 2056.0
6 15 64.90 46.00 0.01 14.45 2070.4 Peak in density large larvae
6 16 69.10 46.90 0.00 17.00 2087.4
6 17 73.00 53.10 0.00 22.05 2109.5
6 18 68.00 50.00 0.20 18.00 2127.5
6 19 78.10 44.10 0.00 20.10 2147.6
6 20 80.10 53.10 0.00 25.60 2173.2
6 21 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 2197.2
6 22 82.00 50.00 0.02 25.00 2222.2
6 23 64.90 54.00 0.37 18.45 2240.7
6 24 70.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 2260.7
6 25 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 2285.2
6 26 90.00 53.10 0.00 30.55 2315.7
6 27 89.10 57.00 0.00 32.05 2347.8
6 28 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 2375.8
6 29 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 2402.8
6 30 82.00 51.10 0.00 25.55 2428.3
7 1 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 2455.3
7 2 87.10 59.00 0.00 32.05 2487.4
7 3 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2513.5
7 4 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2536.0
7 5 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 2560.0
7 6 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 2588.0
7 7 72.00 55.00 0.05 22.50 2610.5
7 8 75.90 59.00 0.22 26.45 2636.9
7 9 73.90 55.40 0.02 23.65 2660.6
7 10 70.00 55.40 0.16 21.70 2682.3
7 11 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2708.4
7 12 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2732.7
7 13 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 2760.4
7 14 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2788.3
7 15 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2812.6
7 16 75.00 59.00 0.00 26.00 2838.6
7 17 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2861.1
7 18 75.90 60.80 0.00 27.35 2888.4
7 19 78.10 57.00 0.00 26.55 2915.0
7 20 84.90 51.80 0.00 27.35 2942.3
7 21 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 2970.8
7 22 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2997.8
7 23 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 3024.8
7 24 89.10 53.60 0.00 30.35 3055.2
7 25 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 3088.5
7 26 88.00 55.90 0.00 30.95 3119.4
7 27 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 3152.9
7 28 96.80 59.00 0.00 36.90 3189.8
7 29 97.00 60.10 0.00 37.55 3227.3
7 30 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 3256.3
7 31 80.10 50.00 0.00 24.05 3280.3
8 1 84.90 52.00 0.00 27.45 3307.8
8 2 79.00 53.60 0.00 25.30 3333.1
8 3 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 3360.1
8 4 95.00 57.20 0.00 35.10 3395.2
8 5 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 3424.0
8 6 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 3449.2
8 7 75.20 51.10 0.00 22.15 3471.3
8 8 68.00 53.60 0.17 19.80 3491.1
8 9 70.00 55.00 0.07 21.50 3512.6
8 10 81.00 60.10 0.00 29.55 3542.2
8 11 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 3573.7
8 12 97.00 59.00 0.00 37.00 3610.7
8 13 96.80 60.80 0.00 37.80 3648.5
8 14 93.90 59.00 0.00 35.45 3683.9
8 15 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 3715.6
8 16 88.00 57.20 0.00 31.60 3747.2
8 17 86.00 52.00 0.00 28.00 3775.2
8 18 102.20 57.00 0.00 38.60 3813.8
8 19 104.00 61.00 0.00 41.50 3855.3
8 20 100.90 60.10 0.00 39.50 3894.8
8 21 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 3923.4
8 22 78.10 51.80 0.00 23.95 3947.3
8 23 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 3974.0
8 24 93.90 55.00 0.00 33.45 4007.4
8 25 97.00 62.60 0.00 38.80 4046.2
8 26 99.00 57.20 0.00 37.10 4083.3
8 27 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 4112.5
8 28 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 4143.1
8 29 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 4171.1
8 30 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 4194.5
8 31 70.00 54.00 0.65 21.00 4215.5
9 1 69.80 53.60 0.24 20.70 4236.2
9 2 73.40 57.00 1.71 24.20 4260.4
9 3 71.10 46.40 0.00 17.75 4278.1
9 4 73.40 48.00 0.00 19.70 4297.8
9 5 75.00 48.20 0.00 20.60 4318.4
9 6 72.00 53.60 0.11 21.80 4340.2
9 7 77.00 54.00 0.00 24.50 4364.7
9 8 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 4388.1
9 9 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 4413.6
9 10 89.60 51.10 0.00 29.35 4442.9
9 11 75.90 48.90 0.00 21.40 4464.3
9 12 81.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 4487.8
9 13 84.20 46.00 0.00 24.10 4511.9
9 14 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 4534.4
9 15 82.90 44.60 0.00 22.75 4557.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 KSLE Salem: McNary Field Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-15-16 | 858 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-20-16 | 971 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 4-22-16 | 1007 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-8-16 | 1274 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-15-16 | 2070 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2369455)
