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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 48.20 30.20 0.00 2.02 2.0 * START *
1 2 45.00 30.00 0.05 0.90 2.9
1 3 46.40 37.00 0.07 1.86 4.8
1 4 44.60 37.00 0.18 1.11 5.9
1 5 57.20 42.80 0.03 9.00 14.9
1 6 51.10 37.40 0.30 4.06 19.0
1 7 52.00 42.80 0.20 6.40 25.4
1 8 52.00 41.00 0.59 5.50 30.9
1 9 52.00 39.20 0.28 4.89 35.7
1 10 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 39.3
1 11 50.00 41.00 0.75 4.50 43.8
1 12 53.60 44.10 0.19 7.85 51.6
1 13 53.60 46.40 0.20 9.00 60.6
1 14 53.60 44.60 0.13 8.10 68.7
1 15 48.90 44.10 0.12 5.50 74.2
1 16 48.90 32.00 0.00 2.42 76.7
1 17 48.90 41.00 0.01 3.95 80.6
1 18 48.90 33.80 0.33 2.58 83.2
1 19 41.00 35.10 0.00 0.00 83.2
1 20 39.20 35.10 0.00 0.00 83.2
1 21 46.90 33.80 0.06 1.77 85.0
1 22 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 86.3
1 23 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 89.2
1 24 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.37 89.6
1 25 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 90.9
1 26 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 92.3
1 27 53.60 37.90 0.00 5.35 97.6
1 28 46.90 36.00 0.14 1.97 99.6
1 29 39.20 26.10 0.00 0.00 99.6
1 30 42.80 24.10 0.00 0.24 99.8
1 31 42.80 23.00 0.00 0.23 100.1
2 1 45.00 24.10 0.00 0.76 100.8
2 2 46.90 24.10 0.00 1.31 102.1
2 3 54.00 30.20 0.10 4.35 106.5
2 4 50.00 42.10 0.04 5.05 111.5
2 5 51.80 37.00 0.18 4.31 115.9
2 6 51.80 37.40 0.01 4.38 120.2
2 7 52.00 39.20 0.28 4.89 125.1
2 8 50.00 32.00 0.19 2.86 128.0
2 9 54.00 30.20 0.02 4.35 132.3
2 10 55.90 41.00 0.03 7.45 139.8
2 11 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 142.4
2 12 44.60 28.00 0.00 0.73 143.1
2 13 48.20 33.80 0.35 2.29 145.4
2 14 45.00 28.90 1.27 0.87 146.2
2 15 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.66 146.9
2 16 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 147.6
2 17 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 151.7
2 18 51.80 35.10 0.00 4.00 155.7
2 19 51.80 30.90 0.00 3.50 159.2
2 20 50.00 44.10 0.00 6.05 165.2
2 21 48.90 35.10 0.33 2.72 168.0
2 22 39.90 33.10 0.16 0.00 168.0
2 23 35.60 23.00 0.06 0.00 168.0
2 24 36.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 168.0
2 25 43.00 17.60 0.08 0.24 168.2
2 26 43.00 33.80 0.10 0.41 168.6
2 27 46.90 33.80 0.06 1.77 170.4
2 28 39.90 28.90 0.23 0.00 170.4
3 1 46.90 24.10 0.00 1.31 171.7
3 2 50.00 33.10 0.08 2.97 174.7
3 3 46.90 33.80 0.14 1.77 176.4
3 4 45.00 35.10 0.16 1.13 177.6
3 5 43.00 30.20 0.05 0.34 177.9
3 6 50.00 35.60 0.13 3.26 181.2
3 7 48.90 32.00 0.13 2.42 183.6
3 8 46.40 32.00 0.11 1.46 185.0
3 9 45.00 39.00 2.94 1.51 186.6
3 10 46.90 33.10 0.19 1.72 188.3
3 11 53.10 33.10 0.00 4.30 192.6
3 12 50.00 30.00 0.38 2.70 195.3
3 13 52.00 35.60 0.48 4.16 199.4
3 14 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 204.1
3 15 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 208.7
3 16 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 217.4
3 17 61.00 32.00 0.00 7.70 225.1
3 18 64.40 33.10 0.00 9.48 234.6
3 19 51.80 42.10 0.35 5.95 240.6
3 20 50.00 35.60 0.05 3.26 243.8
3 21 63.00 33.10 0.00 8.82 252.7
3 22 61.00 33.80 0.01 8.02 260.7
3 23 46.40 36.00 0.48 1.76 262.4
3 24 46.90 33.80 0.40 1.77 264.2
3 25 46.90 32.00 0.10 1.65 265.9
3 26 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 268.7
3 27 50.00 32.00 0.09 2.86 271.6
3 28 46.40 37.90 0.41 1.98 273.6
3 29 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 278.7
3 30 55.90 39.00 0.00 6.75 285.5
3 31 48.20 42.80 0.29 4.50 290.0
4 1 50.00 37.00 0.29 3.47 293.5
4 2 46.90 35.10 0.14 1.88 295.3
4 3 51.80 33.80 0.04 3.82 299.2
4 4 50.00 33.80 0.26 3.04 302.2
4 5 48.90 30.20 0.16 2.29 304.5
4 6 54.00 45.00 0.46 8.50 313.0
4 7 55.90 44.10 0.08 9.00 322.0
4 8 55.90 44.10 0.09 9.00 331.0
4 9 55.40 48.00 0.65 10.70 341.7
4 10 51.80 41.00 0.95 5.40 347.1
4 11 53.60 39.00 0.29 5.62 352.7
4 12 51.80 33.80 0.03 3.82 356.5
4 13 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 361.1
4 14 59.00 35.10 0.00 7.33 368.5
4 15 55.90 37.40 0.00 6.34 374.8
4 16 52.00 41.00 0.20 5.50 380.3
4 17 51.80 37.90 0.46 4.49 384.8
4 18 48.20 35.60 0.10 2.48 387.3
4 19 50.00 36.00 0.17 3.32 390.6
4 20 48.20 33.10 0.60 2.23 392.8
4 21 57.00 41.00 0.00 8.00 400.8
4 22 66.20 50.00 0.30 17.10 417.9
4 23 55.40 46.00 0.07 9.70 427.6
4 24 57.90 41.00 0.01 8.45 436.1
4 25 66.90 35.60 0.00 11.22 447.3
4 26 75.90 39.90 0.00 16.98 464.3
4 27 79.00 44.60 0.00 20.80 485.1
4 28 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 516.6
4 29 78.10 48.00 0.00 22.05 538.6
4 30 62.10 44.10 0.00 12.10 550.7
5 1 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 563.3
5 2 64.40 48.00 0.00 15.20 578.5
5 3 70.00 42.80 0.03 15.40 593.9
5 4 55.40 46.00 0.41 9.70 603.6
5 5 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 616.2
5 6 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 628.8
5 7 64.00 46.00 0.00 14.00 642.8
5 8 63.00 44.60 0.00 12.80 655.6
5 9 64.90 42.80 0.00 12.85 668.4
5 10 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 684.1
5 11 77.00 46.00 0.00 20.50 704.6
5 12 86.00 46.40 0.00 25.20 729.8
5 13 91.40 50.00 0.00 29.70 759.5
5 14 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 790.3
5 15 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 820.3
5 16 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 847.3
5 17 91.40 53.10 0.00 31.25 878.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 18 75.90 53.10 0.00 23.50 902.0
5 19 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 927.5
5 20 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 953.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 21 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 969.0
5 22 64.40 43.00 0.00 12.70 981.7
5 23 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 995.2
5 24 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 1014.8 Peak egg laying
5 25 82.00 44.60 0.00 22.30 1037.1
5 26 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1061.4
5 27 73.90 50.00 0.01 20.95 1082.3
5 28 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 1101.0
5 29 79.00 42.80 0.00 19.90 1120.9
5 30 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 1135.3
5 31 64.90 37.40 0.00 10.71 1146.0
6 1 72.00 35.60 0.00 13.70 1159.7
6 2 75.90 41.00 0.00 17.45 1177.2
6 3 79.00 41.00 0.00 19.00 1196.2
6 4 75.90 41.00 0.00 17.45 1213.6
QA 100% ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 5 81.00 47.00 0.00 23.00 1236.6 Sunny
6 6 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 1261.1 Sunny
6 7 91.00 53.00 0.00 31.00 1292.1 Mostly_Sunny Peak egg hatch
6 8 86.00 51.00 0.00 27.50 1319.6 Partly_Cloudy
6 9 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 1345.1 Partly_Cloudy_2%_precip
6 10 76.00 53.00 0.00 23.50 1368.6 Partly_Cloudy_7%_precip
6 11 77.00 51.00 0.00 23.00 1391.6 Partly_Cloudy_8%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 74.10 49.40 0.03 20.75 1412.4 *hist_fcst*
6 13 71.90 49.30 0.13 19.60 1432.0 *hist_fcst*
6 14 68.30 48.30 0.12 17.30 1449.3 *hist_fcst*
6 15 70.40 47.70 0.05 18.05 1467.3 *hist_fcst*
6 16 71.50 48.80 0.06 19.15 1486.5 *hist_fcst*
6 17 73.40 50.00 0.02 20.70 1507.2 *hist_fcst*
6 18 76.20 50.20 0.00 22.20 1529.4 *hist_fcst*
6 19 75.10 49.20 0.01 21.15 1550.5 *hist_fcst*
6 20 77.60 49.80 0.02 22.70 1573.2 *hist_fcst*
6 21 77.50 51.30 0.03 23.40 1596.6 *hist_fcst*
6 22 77.00 50.40 0.00 22.70 1619.3 *hist_fcst*
6 23 78.70 50.40 0.04 23.55 1642.9 *hist_fcst*
6 24 77.30 52.70 0.05 24.00 1666.9 *hist_fcst*
6 25 78.80 53.40 0.02 25.10 1692.0 *hist_fcst*
6 26 80.20 53.50 0.03 25.85 1717.8 *hist_fcst*
6 27 81.40 55.70 0.04 27.55 1745.4 *hist_fcst*
6 28 80.20 54.70 0.04 26.45 1771.8 *hist_fcst*
6 29 80.50 53.90 0.00 26.20 1798.0 *hist_fcst*
6 30 81.00 54.20 0.00 26.60 1824.6 *hist_fcst*
7 1 81.40 54.70 0.01 27.05 1851.7 *hist_fcst*
7 2 81.30 55.10 0.00 27.20 1878.9 *hist_fcst*
7 3 81.10 53.60 0.00 26.35 1905.2 *hist_fcst*
7 4 80.10 51.90 0.00 25.00 1930.2 *hist_fcst*
7 5 80.80 52.10 0.00 25.45 1955.7 *hist_fcst*
7 6 82.40 52.50 0.00 26.45 1982.1 *hist_fcst*
7 7 82.20 53.00 0.00 26.60 2008.7 *hist_fcst*
7 8 79.90 53.60 0.01 25.75 2034.5 *hist_fcst*
7 9 83.40 53.40 0.01 27.40 2061.9 *hist_fcst*
7 10 81.20 54.40 0.04 26.80 2088.7 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 11 80.70 53.60 0.01 26.15 2114.8 *hist_fcst*
7 12 81.80 53.40 0.00 26.60 2141.4 *hist_fcst*
7 13 83.80 54.40 0.00 28.10 2169.5 *hist_fcst*
7 14 82.30 52.90 0.01 26.60 2196.1 *hist_fcst*
7 15 86.00 52.90 0.00 28.45 2224.6 *hist_fcst*
7 16 84.10 54.00 0.00 28.05 2252.6 *hist_fcst*
7 17 83.30 55.10 0.00 28.20 2280.8 *hist_fcst*
7 18 80.90 53.40 0.00 26.15 2307.0 *hist_fcst*
7 19 83.60 52.80 0.00 27.20 2334.2 *hist_fcst*
7 20 83.30 53.20 0.00 27.25 2361.4 *hist_fcst*
7 21 81.90 52.80 0.00 26.35 2387.8 *hist_fcst*
7 22 82.20 52.00 0.00 26.10 2413.9 *hist_fcst*
7 23 81.60 53.00 0.02 26.30 2440.2 *hist_fcst*
7 24 82.10 53.10 0.04 26.60 2466.8 *hist_fcst*
7 25 85.40 52.00 0.00 27.70 2494.5 *hist_fcst*
7 26 87.50 53.30 0.00 29.40 2523.9 *hist_fcst*
7 27 88.50 53.70 0.00 30.10 2554.0 *hist_fcst*
7 28 85.20 53.80 0.00 28.50 2582.5 *hist_fcst*
7 29 88.00 53.70 0.00 29.85 2612.3 *hist_fcst*
7 30 90.70 55.80 0.00 32.25 2644.6 *hist_fcst*
7 31 89.10 55.30 0.00 31.20 2675.8 *hist_fcst*
8 1 86.60 54.80 0.01 29.70 2705.5 *hist_fcst*
8 2 87.50 54.70 0.00 30.10 2735.6 *hist_fcst*
8 3 82.90 56.90 0.00 28.90 2764.5 *hist_fcst*
8 4 87.60 55.10 0.00 30.35 2794.8 *hist_fcst*
8 5 91.90 55.60 0.00 32.75 2827.6 *hist_fcst*
8 6 86.20 54.20 0.00 29.20 2856.8 *hist_fcst*
8 7 84.60 53.70 0.00 28.15 2884.9 *hist_fcst*
8 8 82.70 53.40 0.00 27.05 2912.0 *hist_fcst*
8 9 80.40 54.40 0.02 26.40 2938.4 *hist_fcst*
8 10 84.70 54.50 0.00 28.60 2967.0 *hist_fcst*
8 11 86.10 55.90 0.04 30.00 2997.0 *hist_fcst*
8 12 86.10 55.90 0.00 30.00 3027.0 *hist_fcst*
8 13 85.10 55.30 0.02 29.20 3056.2 *hist_fcst*
8 14 86.70 54.40 0.00 29.55 3085.7 *hist_fcst*
8 15 86.00 55.50 0.00 29.75 3115.5 *hist_fcst*
8 16 86.80 55.80 0.00 30.30 3145.8 *hist_fcst*
8 17 86.00 54.20 0.00 29.10 3174.9 *hist_fcst*
8 18 84.80 54.20 0.00 28.50 3203.4 *hist_fcst*
8 19 87.90 54.00 0.00 29.95 3233.3 *hist_fcst*
8 20 86.70 54.80 0.00 29.75 3263.1 *hist_fcst*
8 21 82.80 52.80 0.01 26.80 3289.9 *hist_fcst*
8 22 81.90 51.90 0.01 25.90 3315.8 *hist_fcst*
8 23 80.90 50.20 0.00 24.55 3340.3 *hist_fcst*
8 24 80.70 49.90 0.00 24.30 3364.6 *hist_fcst*
8 25 81.40 49.10 0.00 24.25 3388.9 *hist_fcst*
8 26 82.20 50.30 0.00 25.25 3414.1 *hist_fcst*
8 27 84.70 53.10 0.02 27.90 3442.0 *hist_fcst*
8 28 84.90 54.30 0.01 28.60 3470.6 *hist_fcst*
8 29 86.20 54.10 0.03 29.15 3499.8 *hist_fcst*
8 30 81.40 54.20 0.04 26.80 3526.6 *hist_fcst*
8 31 76.50 52.10 0.03 23.30 3549.9 *hist_fcst*
9 1 78.30 51.10 0.01 23.70 3573.6 *hist_fcst*
9 2 81.10 50.70 0.00 24.90 3598.5 *hist_fcst*
9 3 82.60 50.90 0.01 25.75 3624.2 *hist_fcst*
9 4 81.50 49.90 0.02 24.70 3648.9 *hist_fcst*
9 5 81.50 49.80 0.01 24.65 3673.6 *hist_fcst*
9 6 81.90 53.00 0.14 26.45 3700.0 *hist_fcst*
9 7 82.50 53.10 0.01 26.80 3726.8 *hist_fcst*
9 8 82.90 53.20 0.00 27.05 3753.9 *hist_fcst*
9 9 78.80 53.70 0.04 25.25 3779.1 *hist_fcst*
9 10 79.60 52.90 0.04 25.25 3804.4 *hist_fcst*
9 11 78.50 50.60 0.01 23.55 3827.9 *hist_fcst*
9 12 80.00 49.70 0.04 23.85 3851.8 *hist_fcst*
9 13 79.60 49.70 0.01 23.65 3875.4 *hist_fcst*
9 14 77.40 50.00 0.01 22.70 3898.1 *hist_fcst*
9 15 77.60 48.50 0.01 22.05 3920.2 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt QA 100% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | | | This year is about | versus | QA | | 4 days ahead | 2022 | ok | | 8 days behind | 2021 | ok | | 2 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
| Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-17-23 | 879 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-20-23 | 953 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-24-23 | 1015 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-7-23 | 1292 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-10-23 | 2089 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?13886)
