Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 1.9 * START * 1 2 45.00 35.60 0.00 1.16 3.1 1 3 46.90 35.60 0.00 1.93 5.0 1 4 48.90 35.60 0.10 2.78 7.8 1 5 53.60 41.00 0.27 6.30 14.1 1 6 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 18.4 1 7 45.00 37.40 0.04 1.31 19.7 1 8 46.90 41.00 0.43 2.95 22.7 1 9 51.80 42.80 0.12 6.30 29.0 1 10 48.90 42.10 0.11 4.50 33.5 1 11 55.90 48.00 1.01 10.95 44.4 1 12 53.60 48.20 0.86 9.90 54.3 1 13 48.20 46.40 0.00 6.30 60.6 1 14 59.30 47.70 0.00 12.50 73.1 Px Pn 1 15 57.90 43.00 0.15 9.45 82.6 1 16 55.90 42.10 0.21 8.00 90.6 1 17 55.90 39.90 0.37 7.02 97.6 1 18 51.80 42.80 0.43 6.30 103.9 1 19 48.20 41.00 0.05 3.60 107.5 1 20 48.90 39.20 0.03 3.39 110.9 1 21 50.00 41.00 0.15 4.50 115.4 1 22 51.80 37.00 0.23 4.31 119.7 1 23 51.80 39.20 0.97 4.79 124.5 1 24 51.80 39.20 0.39 4.79 129.3 1 25 48.20 37.40 0.49 2.72 132.0 1 26 46.90 35.60 0.23 1.93 133.9 1 27 54.00 42.80 0.06 7.40 141.3 1 28 61.00 46.00 0.00 12.50 153.8 1 29 54.00 44.60 0.54 8.30 162.1 1 30 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 165.7 1 31 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 168.4 2 1 50.00 41.00 0.11 4.50 172.9 2 2 57.90 46.40 0.02 11.15 184.0 2 3 57.90 46.40 0.01 11.15 195.2 2 4 61.00 48.00 0.00 13.50 208.7 2 5 59.00 42.10 0.00 9.55 218.2 2 6 54.00 35.10 0.00 5.00 223.2 2 7 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 228.1 2 8 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 234.2 2 9 52.00 39.00 0.00 4.84 239.1 2 10 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 241.8 2 11 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 243.5 2 12 48.90 28.00 0.00 2.15 245.6 2 13 48.90 24.10 0.09 1.96 247.6 2 14 50.00 36.00 0.13 3.32 250.9 2 15 50.00 35.10 0.00 3.20 254.1 2 16 52.00 42.10 0.12 6.05 260.2 2 17 52.00 39.00 0.15 4.84 265.0 2 18 44.10 32.00 0.20 0.68 265.7 2 19 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 265.7 2 20 39.20 28.00 0.12 0.00 265.7 2 21 39.20 30.00 0.08 0.00 265.7 2 22 39.90 28.00 0.72 0.00 265.7 2 23 39.90 21.20 0.09 0.00 265.7 2 24 50.00 37.40 0.04 3.54 269.2 2 25 46.90 32.00 0.30 1.65 270.9 2 26 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 272.4 2 27 46.90 32.00 0.04 1.65 274.1 2 28 46.90 41.00 0.24 2.95 277.0 3 1 46.90 33.80 0.11 1.77 278.8 3 2 50.00 33.80 0.01 3.04 281.8 3 3 52.00 33.10 0.10 3.82 285.7 3 4 51.80 26.60 0.00 3.15 288.8 3 5 54.00 35.60 0.00 5.08 293.9 3 6 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 299.0 3 7 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 303.9 3 8 55.40 37.40 0.35 6.10 310.0 3 9 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 315.2 3 10 60.10 33.10 0.01 7.47 322.7 3 11 68.00 33.80 0.00 11.33 334.0 3 12 71.60 42.10 0.00 15.85 349.8 3 13 57.20 45.00 0.62 10.10 359.9 3 14 53.60 35.60 0.02 4.90 364.8 3 15 51.80 33.10 0.14 3.74 368.6 3 16 53.60 39.20 0.03 5.67 374.3 3 17 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 377.8 3 18 51.80 34.00 0.11 3.85 381.6 3 19 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 387.4 3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 394.5 3 21 51.80 32.00 0.50 3.61 398.1 3 22 48.90 36.00 0.64 2.83 400.9 3 23 42.80 33.80 5.53 0.35 401.3 3 24 42.80 33.10 0.13 0.34 401.6 3 25 52.00 35.10 0.01 4.09 405.7 3 26 48.90 35.10 0.01 2.72 408.4 3 27 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 415.6 3 28 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 422.8 3 29 60.10 33.10 0.00 7.47 430.3 3 30 60.80 39.00 0.00 9.16 439.5 3 31 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 448.7 4 1 50.00 33.10 0.06 2.97 451.7 4 2 52.00 33.10 0.01 3.82 455.5 4 3 52.00 28.40 0.00 3.36 458.9 4 4 61.00 43.00 0.00 11.00 469.9 4 5 53.60 46.00 0.24 8.80 478.7 4 6 68.00 51.10 0.10 18.55 497.2 4 7 60.80 46.40 1.71 12.60 509.8 4 8 52.00 43.00 0.54 6.50 516.3 4 9 64.90 39.00 0.00 11.19 527.5 4 10 57.90 46.00 0.05 10.95 538.5 4 11 54.00 39.20 0.26 5.87 544.3 4 12 51.80 37.40 0.57 4.38 548.7 4 13 54.00 44.10 0.12 8.05 556.8 4 14 57.20 46.90 0.17 11.05 567.8 4 15 48.20 42.10 0.54 4.15 572.0 4 16 48.20 37.90 0.18 2.80 574.8 4 17 53.60 37.40 0.08 5.24 580.0 4 18 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 589.3 4 19 66.20 35.10 0.00 10.76 600.1 4 20 64.40 33.10 0.00 9.48 609.6 4 21 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 619.6 4 22 64.40 33.80 0.00 9.62 629.2 4 23 73.90 42.10 0.00 17.00 646.2 4 24 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 670.4 4 25 84.00 44.60 0.00 23.30 693.7 4 26 73.40 46.00 0.00 18.70 712.4 4 27 53.60 46.00 0.15 8.80 721.2 4 28 60.80 42.10 0.10 10.45 731.6 4 29 61.00 44.60 0.05 11.80 743.4 4 30 57.20 44.10 0.02 9.65 753.1 5 1 57.20 44.10 0.00 9.65 762.7 5 2 73.40 37.00 0.00 14.77 777.5 5 3 72.00 42.80 0.00 16.40 793.9 5 4 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 808.1 5 5 73.40 48.00 0.00 19.70 827.8 5 6 66.90 46.90 0.07 15.90 843.7 5 7 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 862.6 peak pheromone trap catch 5 8 73.00 44.10 0.05 17.55 880.2 5 9 64.90 48.20 0.00 15.55 895.7 5 10 63.00 44.60 0.08 12.80 908.5 5 11 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 924.7 5 12 80.60 42.10 0.00 20.35 945.1 5 13 87.80 46.40 0.00 26.10 971.2 peak female adult emergence 5 14 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 995.4 5 15 69.80 48.00 0.00 17.90 1013.3 peak egg laying 5 16 66.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 1031.3 5 17 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1050.2 5 18 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1067.3 5 19 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 1084.4
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1084QA 99% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 7 days ahead 2017 ok
 18 days behind 2016 ok
 12 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KMMV data
  5 20  68.10 40.60  0.00  13.37   1097.7  0.001_5.96%_precip.    
  5 21  75.60 37.00  0.00  15.85   1113.6  0.00_8.49%_precip.    
  5 22  81.20 38.60  0.00  19.14   1132.7  0.00_11.43%_precip.    
  5 23  83.60 47.00  0.00  24.30   1157.0  0.00_15.42%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KMMV 2006-2015
  5 24  63.60 46.90  0.14  14.25   1171.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  67.00 47.20  0.09  16.10   1187.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  67.10 47.50  0.12  16.30   1203.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  65.80 48.40  0.09  16.10   1219.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  65.60 47.30  0.07  15.45   1235.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  67.40 47.90  0.08  16.65   1251.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  71.10 48.00  0.00  18.55   1270.4  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  5 31  74.80 48.90  0.05  20.85   1291.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  73.70 50.20  0.05  20.95   1312.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  70.60 49.70  0.11  19.15   1331.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.60 49.30  0.10  18.95   1350.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  72.60 49.10  0.10  19.85   1370.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  73.50 49.60  0.12  20.55   1390.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  72.10 49.10  0.04  19.60   1410.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  71.90 49.20  0.08  19.55   1429.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  71.10 49.70  0.03  19.40   1449.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  72.90 48.50  0.02  19.70   1469.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  69.60 48.30  0.05  17.95   1486.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  69.40 47.90  0.01  17.65   1504.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  71.40 48.40  0.02  18.90   1523.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  71.50 49.00  0.08  19.25   1542.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  69.10 48.70  0.03  17.90   1560.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  70.50 47.90  0.00  18.20   1578.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  72.80 48.40  0.02  19.60   1598.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  71.80 48.40  0.00  19.10   1617.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  70.80 49.20  0.00  19.00   1636.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  71.10 49.20  0.01  19.15   1655.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  72.50 49.40  0.02  19.95   1675.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  74.50 49.70  0.00  21.10   1696.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  75.90 49.70  0.00  21.80   1718.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  74.00 48.80  0.02  20.40   1738.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  75.50 49.80  0.03  21.65   1760.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  76.20 51.00  0.03  22.60   1783.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  77.20 52.50  0.03  23.85   1807.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  80.10 53.20  0.04  25.65   1832.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  81.70 53.60  0.02  26.65   1859.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.30 54.60  0.03  25.95   1885.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  78.30 52.90  0.01  24.60   1909.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  82.00 52.00  0.01  26.00   1935.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  84.50 53.40  0.01  27.95   1963.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  84.40 53.50  0.00  27.95   1991.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  82.20 53.00  0.00  26.60   2018.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  81.80 52.60  0.00  26.20   2044.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  80.00 52.80  0.00  25.40   2070.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  82.50 51.90  0.01  26.20   2096.2  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7  8  84.10 53.20  0.00  27.65   2123.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  86.30 53.60  0.00  28.95   2152.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  86.60 54.50  0.00  29.55   2182.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  84.50 53.90  0.00  28.20   2210.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  81.70 53.80  0.00  26.75   2237.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  79.80 54.80  0.04  26.30   2263.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  79.90 53.50  0.01  25.70   2289.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  85.10 53.80  0.00  28.45   2317.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  85.00 54.00  0.02  28.50   2346.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  83.30 54.20  0.01  27.75   2374.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  79.80 53.40  0.05  25.60   2399.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  80.40 52.60  0.01  25.50   2425.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  82.70 53.70  0.00  27.20   2452.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.90 53.90  0.01  26.90   2479.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.80 54.10  0.00  27.45   2506.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  79.90 55.30  0.02  26.60   2533.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  83.40 54.20  0.04  27.80   2561.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.00 53.20  0.00  28.60   2589.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.60 53.90  0.00  28.25   2617.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  84.60 53.70  0.00  28.15   2646.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.60 53.40  0.00  28.00   2674.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.30 54.50  0.00  28.90   2702.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.10 55.30  0.00  28.70   2731.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  84.30 53.10  0.00  27.70   2759.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.10 53.10  0.01  28.10   2787.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  84.60 54.70  0.00  28.65   2816.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  82.30 53.80  0.00  27.05   2843.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.40 53.60  0.00  28.00   2871.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  87.20 53.60  0.00  29.40   2900.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.80 53.50  0.00  28.15   2928.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  83.00 54.60  0.00  27.80   2956.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.70 53.80  0.00  26.25   2982.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.90 54.10  0.00  25.50   3008.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  79.90 53.50  0.00  25.70   3033.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.40 52.90  0.04  26.15   3060.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.60 54.40  0.04  28.00   3088.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.10 53.70  0.01  26.90   3115.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.40 53.70  0.00  28.05   3143.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.40 56.20  0.00  29.80   3172.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  84.50 56.10  0.00  29.30   3202.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  86.00 54.40  0.00  29.20   3231.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.20 55.10  0.00  29.65   3261.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.70 55.20  0.04  28.95   3289.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  83.90 54.90  0.04  28.40   3318.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.90 53.00  0.03  25.95   3344.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.80 52.00  0.00  24.90   3369.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.50 51.40  0.00  24.95   3394.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.20 52.00  0.00  25.60   3419.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  82.40 52.30  0.03  26.35   3446.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.60 52.00  0.00  26.30   3472.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.00 51.90  0.02  26.45   3498.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.00 52.90  0.01  27.45   3526.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.40 53.60  0.03  26.50   3552.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.20 53.30  0.04  24.25   3577.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.70 52.00  0.03  22.85   3599.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.00 50.20  0.00  22.10   3622.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.70 50.60  0.00  24.15   3646.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.40 50.50  0.00  24.95   3671.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.00 50.90  0.02  24.95   3696.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.50 51.00  0.03  24.25   3720.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.40 51.70  0.18  24.55   3744.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.40 50.20  0.04  24.30   3769.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.30 50.50  0.01  24.90   3794.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.40 51.20  0.00  24.80   3818.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.60 51.30  0.00  24.95   3843.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  84.10 50.00  0.00  26.05   3869.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.70 50.70  0.00  27.70   3897.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  83.40 51.60  0.00  26.50   3924.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.60 51.90  0.00  23.75   3947.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.40 51.60  0.01  23.00   3970.8  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 1084 QA 99% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 7 days ahead 2017 ok
 18 days behind 2016 ok
 12 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-7-18 863peak pheromone trap catch
 5-13-18 971peak female adult emergence
 5-15-18 1013peak egg laying
 5-30-18 1270peak egg hatch
 7-7-18 2096peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)