Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 1.9 * START * 1 2 45.00 35.60 0.00 1.16 3.1 1 3 46.90 35.60 0.00 1.93 5.0 1 4 48.90 35.60 0.10 2.78 7.8 1 5 53.60 41.00 0.27 6.30 14.1 1 6 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 18.4 1 7 45.00 37.40 0.04 1.31 19.7 1 8 46.90 41.00 0.43 2.95 22.7 1 9 51.80 42.80 0.12 6.30 29.0 1 10 48.90 42.10 0.11 4.50 33.5 1 11 55.90 48.00 1.01 10.95 44.4 1 12 53.60 48.20 0.86 9.90 54.3 1 13 48.20 46.40 0.00 6.30 60.6 1 14 59.30 47.70 0.00 12.50 73.1 Px Pn 1 15 57.90 43.00 0.15 9.45 82.6 1 16 55.90 42.10 0.21 8.00 90.6 1 17 55.90 39.90 0.37 7.02 97.6 1 18 51.80 42.80 0.43 6.30 103.9 1 19 48.20 41.00 0.05 3.60 107.5 1 20 48.90 39.20 0.03 3.39 110.9 1 21 50.00 41.00 0.15 4.50 115.4 1 22 51.80 37.00 0.23 4.31 119.7 1 23 51.80 39.20 0.97 4.79 124.5 1 24 51.80 39.20 0.39 4.79 129.3 1 25 48.20 37.40 0.49 2.72 132.0 1 26 46.90 35.60 0.23 1.93 133.9 1 27 54.00 42.80 0.06 7.40 141.3 1 28 61.00 46.00 0.00 12.50 153.8 1 29 54.00 44.60 0.54 8.30 162.1 1 30 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 165.7 1 31 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 168.4 2 1 50.00 41.00 0.11 4.50 172.9 2 2 57.90 46.40 0.02 11.15 184.0 2 3 57.90 46.40 0.01 11.15 195.2 2 4 61.00 48.00 0.00 13.50 208.7 2 5 59.00 42.10 0.00 9.55 218.2 2 6 54.00 35.10 0.00 5.00 223.2 2 7 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 228.1 2 8 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 234.2 2 9 52.00 39.00 0.00 4.84 239.1 2 10 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 241.8 2 11 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 243.5 2 12 48.90 28.00 0.00 2.15 245.6 2 13 48.90 24.10 0.09 1.96 247.6 2 14 50.00 36.00 0.13 3.32 250.9 2 15 50.00 35.10 0.00 3.20 254.1 2 16 52.00 42.10 0.12 6.05 260.2 2 17 52.00 39.00 0.15 4.84 265.0 2 18 44.10 32.00 0.20 0.68 265.7 2 19 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 265.7 2 20 39.20 28.00 0.12 0.00 265.7 2 21 39.20 30.00 0.08 0.00 265.7 2 22 39.90 28.00 0.72 0.00 265.7 2 23 39.90 21.20 0.09 0.00 265.7 2 24 50.00 37.40 0.04 3.54 269.2 2 25 46.90 32.00 0.30 1.65 270.9 2 26 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 272.4 2 27 46.90 32.00 0.04 1.65 274.1 2 28 46.90 41.00 0.24 2.95 277.0 3 1 46.90 33.80 0.11 1.77 278.8 3 2 50.00 33.80 0.01 3.04 281.8 3 3 52.00 33.10 0.10 3.82 285.7 3 4 51.80 26.60 0.00 3.15 288.8 3 5 54.00 35.60 0.00 5.08 293.9 3 6 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 299.0 3 7 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 303.9 3 8 55.40 37.40 0.35 6.10 310.0 3 9 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 315.2 3 10 60.10 33.10 0.01 7.47 322.7 3 11 68.00 33.80 0.00 11.33 334.0 3 12 71.60 42.10 0.00 15.85 349.8 3 13 57.20 45.00 0.62 10.10 359.9 3 14 53.60 35.60 0.02 4.90 364.8 3 15 51.80 33.10 0.14 3.74 368.6 3 16 53.60 39.20 0.03 5.67 374.3 3 17 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 377.8 3 18 51.80 34.00 0.11 3.85 381.6 3 19 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 387.4 3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 394.5 3 21 51.80 32.00 0.50 3.61 398.1 3 22 48.90 36.00 0.64 2.83 400.9 3 23 42.80 33.80 5.53 0.35 401.3 3 24 42.80 33.10 0.13 0.34 401.6 3 25 52.00 35.10 0.01 4.09 405.7 3 26 48.90 35.10 0.01 2.72 408.4 3 27 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 415.6 3 28 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 422.8 3 29 60.10 33.10 0.00 7.47 430.3 3 30 60.80 39.00 0.00 9.16 439.5 3 31 61.00 39.00 0.00 9.26 448.7 4 1 50.00 33.10 0.06 2.97 451.7 4 2 52.00 33.10 0.01 3.82 455.5 4 3 52.00 28.40 0.00 3.36 458.9 4 4 61.00 43.00 0.00 11.00 469.9 4 5 53.60 46.00 0.24 8.80 478.7 4 6 68.00 51.10 0.10 18.55 497.2 4 7 60.80 46.40 1.71 12.60 509.8 4 8 52.00 43.00 0.54 6.50 516.3 4 9 64.90 39.00 0.00 11.19 527.5 4 10 57.90 46.00 0.05 10.95 538.5 4 11 54.00 39.20 0.26 5.87 544.3 4 12 51.80 37.40 0.57 4.38 548.7 4 13 54.00 44.10 0.12 8.05 556.8 4 14 57.20 46.90 0.17 11.05 567.8 4 15 48.20 42.10 0.54 4.15 572.0 4 16 48.20 37.90 0.18 2.80 574.8 4 17 53.60 37.40 0.08 5.24 580.0 4 18 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 589.3 4 19 66.20 35.10 0.00 10.76 600.1 4 20 64.40 33.10 0.00 9.48 609.6 4 21 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 619.6 4 22 64.40 33.80 0.00 9.62 629.2 4 23 73.90 42.10 0.00 17.00 646.2 4 24 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 670.4 4 25 84.00 44.60 0.00 23.30 693.7 4 26 73.40 46.00 0.00 18.70 712.4 4 27 53.60 46.00 0.15 8.80 721.2 4 28 60.80 42.10 0.10 10.45 731.6 4 29 61.00 44.60 0.05 11.80 743.4 4 30 57.20 44.10 0.02 9.65 753.1 5 1 57.20 44.10 0.00 9.65 762.7 5 2 73.40 37.00 0.00 14.77 777.5 5 3 72.00 42.80 0.00 16.40 793.9 5 4 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 808.1 5 5 73.40 48.00 0.00 19.70 827.8 5 6 66.90 46.90 0.07 15.90 843.7 5 7 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 862.6 peak pheromone trap catch 5 8 73.00 44.10 0.05 17.55 880.2 5 9 64.90 48.20 0.00 15.55 895.7 5 10 63.00 44.60 0.08 12.80 908.5 5 11 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 924.7 5 12 80.60 42.10 0.00 20.35 945.1 5 13 87.80 46.40 0.00 26.10 971.2 peak female adult emergence 5 14 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 995.4 5 15 69.80 48.00 0.00 17.90 1013.3 peak egg laying 5 16 66.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 1031.3 5 17 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1050.2 5 18 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1067.3 5 19 69.10 48.20 0.00 17.65 1084.9 5 20 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 1101.9 5 21 75.20 42.80 0.00 18.00 1119.9 5 22 82.90 46.00 0.00 23.45 1143.4 5 23 75.90 51.80 0.00 22.85 1166.2 5 24 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1188.7 5 25 69.80 46.90 0.00 17.35 1206.1 5 26 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1219.6 5 27 75.90 42.80 0.00 18.35 1237.9 5 28 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 1255.9 5 29 68.00 42.10 0.00 14.05 1270.0 5 30 68.00 35.10 0.00 11.63 1281.6 peak egg hatch 5 31 66.00 45.00 0.01 14.50 1296.1 6 1 71.60 39.00 0.00 14.51 1310.6 6 2 81.00 44.10 0.00 21.55 1332.2 6 3 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1352.0 6 4 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 1370.0 6 5 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 1385.3 6 6 75.90 42.80 0.00 18.35 1403.6 6 7 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1422.6 6 8 64.90 48.00 0.45 15.45 1438.1 6 9 64.90 46.00 0.04 14.45 1452.5 6 10 55.90 44.60 0.42 9.25 1461.8 6 11 71.60 48.20 0.11 18.90 1480.7 6 12 78.80 39.20 0.00 18.16 1498.8 6 13 68.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 1515.8 6 14 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1531.5 6 15 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1551.3 6 16 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 1573.8 6 17 90.00 48.20 0.00 28.10 1601.9 6 18 81.00 48.90 0.00 23.95 1625.8 6 19 90.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 1654.8 6 20 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 1684.5 6 21 73.40 57.00 0.00 24.20 1708.7 6 22 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 1734.3 6 23 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 1755.0 6 24 89.60 51.10 0.03 29.35 1784.3 6 25 71.10 48.90 0.11 19.00 1803.3 6 26 77.90 44.60 0.00 20.25 1823.6 Px 6 27 79.10 50.80 0.00 23.95 1847.5 Px Pn 6 28 77.70 59.60 0.00 27.65 1875.2 Px Pn 6 29 80.10 55.40 0.00 26.75 1901.9 6 30 82.40 51.10 0.00 25.75 1927.7 7 1 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 1951.2 7 2 71.60 46.00 0.00 17.80 1969.0 7 3 77.00 42.10 0.00 18.55 1987.5 7 4 75.90 52.00 0.02 22.95 2010.5 7 5 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 2035.7 7 6 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2059.1 7 7 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 2082.7 peak in density large larvae 7 8 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 2107.9 7 9 69.80 48.20 0.01 18.00 2125.9 7 10 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 2151.9 7 11 89.60 48.20 0.00 27.90 2179.8 7 12 97.00 55.40 0.00 35.20 2215.0 7 13 93.20 55.40 0.00 33.30 2248.3 7 14 93.20 50.00 0.00 30.60 2278.9
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2279QA 98% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 2 days ahead 2017 ok
 15 days behind 2016 ok
 11 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KMMV data
  7 15  92.00 54.90  0.00  32.45   2311.3  0.00_23.45%_precip.    
  7 16  88.90 51.80  0.00  29.35   2340.7  0.00_20.35%_precip.    
  7 17  86.00 45.90  0.00  24.95   2365.6  0.00_16.16%_precip.    
  7 18  75.70 47.70  0.00  20.70   2386.3  0.00_11.79%_precip.    
  7 19  80.00 41.50  0.00  19.75   2406.1  0.00_11.69%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KMMV 2006-2015
  7 20  82.70 53.70  0.00  27.20   2433.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.90 53.90  0.01  26.90   2460.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.80 54.10  0.00  27.45   2487.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  79.90 55.30  0.02  26.60   2514.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  83.40 54.20  0.04  27.80   2542.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.00 53.20  0.00  28.60   2570.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.60 53.90  0.00  28.25   2598.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  84.60 53.70  0.00  28.15   2627.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.60 53.40  0.00  28.00   2655.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.30 54.50  0.00  28.90   2683.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.10 55.30  0.00  28.70   2712.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  84.30 53.10  0.00  27.70   2740.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.10 53.10  0.01  28.10   2768.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  84.60 54.70  0.00  28.65   2797.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  82.30 53.80  0.00  27.05   2824.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.40 53.60  0.00  28.00   2852.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  87.20 53.60  0.00  29.40   2881.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.80 53.50  0.00  28.15   2909.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  83.00 54.60  0.00  27.80   2937.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.70 53.80  0.00  26.25   2963.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.90 54.10  0.00  25.50   2989.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  79.90 53.50  0.00  25.70   3014.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.40 52.90  0.04  26.15   3041.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.60 54.40  0.04  28.00   3069.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.10 53.70  0.01  26.90   3096.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.40 53.70  0.00  28.05   3124.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.40 56.20  0.00  29.80   3153.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  84.50 56.10  0.00  29.30   3183.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  86.00 54.40  0.00  29.20   3212.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  86.20 55.10  0.00  29.65   3242.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.70 55.20  0.04  28.95   3270.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  83.90 54.90  0.04  28.40   3299.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.90 53.00  0.03  25.95   3325.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.80 52.00  0.00  24.90   3350.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.50 51.40  0.00  24.95   3375.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.20 52.00  0.00  25.60   3400.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  82.40 52.30  0.03  26.35   3427.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.60 52.00  0.00  26.30   3453.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.00 51.90  0.02  26.45   3479.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.00 52.90  0.01  27.45   3507.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.40 53.60  0.03  26.50   3533.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.20 53.30  0.04  24.25   3558.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.70 52.00  0.03  22.85   3580.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.00 50.20  0.00  22.10   3603.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.70 50.60  0.00  24.15   3627.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.40 50.50  0.00  24.95   3652.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.00 50.90  0.02  24.95   3677.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.50 51.00  0.03  24.25   3701.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.40 51.70  0.18  24.55   3725.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.40 50.20  0.04  24.30   3750.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  81.30 50.50  0.01  24.90   3775.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.40 51.20  0.00  24.80   3799.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.60 51.30  0.00  24.95   3824.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  84.10 50.00  0.00  26.05   3850.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.70 50.70  0.00  27.70   3878.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  83.40 51.60  0.00  26.50   3905.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.60 51.90  0.00  23.75   3928.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.40 51.60  0.01  23.00   3951.8  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2279 QA 98% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 2 days ahead 2017 ok
 15 days behind 2016 ok
 11 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-7-18 863peak pheromone trap catch
 5-13-18 971peak female adult emergence
 5-15-18 1013peak egg laying
 5-30-18 1282peak egg hatch
 7-7-18 2083peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)