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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2015 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 43.00 26.10 0.00 0.30 0.3 * START *
1 2 41.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.3
1 3 41.00 34.00 0.06 0.00 0.3
1 4 53.10 34.00 0.05 4.42 4.7
1 5 55.90 42.80 0.01 8.35 13.1
1 6 48.90 39.90 0.00 3.57 16.6
1 7 46.00 36.00 0.00 1.59 18.2
1 8 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 19.2
1 9 48.90 32.00 0.00 2.42 21.6
1 10 45.00 32.00 0.10 0.97 22.6
1 11 46.90 42.10 0.12 3.50 26.1
1 12 48.90 43.00 0.09 4.95 31.0
1 13 53.10 35.10 0.00 4.59 35.6
1 14 51.10 35.10 0.00 3.68 39.3
1 15 44.60 32.00 0.74 0.84 40.2
1 16 52.00 39.00 0.18 4.84 45.0
1 17 60.10 39.00 1.74 8.81 53.8
1 18 60.10 46.90 0.12 12.50 66.3
1 19 51.10 39.00 0.03 4.40 70.7
1 20 51.10 36.00 0.00 3.82 74.5
1 21 48.90 30.90 0.00 2.34 76.9
1 22 51.10 39.90 0.00 4.65 81.5
1 23 48.90 43.00 0.09 4.95 86.5
1 24 62.10 43.00 0.00 11.55 98.0
1 25 48.00 43.00 0.00 4.50 102.5
1 26 46.90 42.80 0.00 3.85 106.4
1 27 48.90 42.10 0.02 4.50 110.9
1 28 54.00 42.10 0.01 7.05 117.9
1 29 57.90 41.00 0.00 8.45 126.4
1 30 57.90 33.10 0.00 6.46 132.8
1 31 53.10 28.90 0.00 3.85 136.7
2 1 46.90 37.90 0.39 2.20 138.9
2 2 57.90 37.00 0.30 7.21 146.1
2 3 52.00 39.90 0.32 5.09 151.2
2 4 53.10 46.00 0.16 8.55 159.7
2 5 59.00 46.00 1.01 11.50 171.2
2 6 57.00 52.00 0.91 13.50 184.7
2 7 57.90 50.00 0.58 12.95 197.7
2 8 55.00 46.90 0.27 9.95 207.6
2 9 54.00 50.00 1.12 11.00 218.6
2 10 54.00 46.00 0.01 9.00 227.6
2 11 52.00 37.90 0.00 4.58 232.2
2 12 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 236.7
2 13 50.00 39.00 0.00 3.87 240.6
2 14 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 250.6
2 15 64.00 36.00 0.00 9.91 260.5
2 16 63.00 46.00 0.00 13.50 274.0
2 17 66.00 37.90 0.00 11.39 285.4
2 18 59.00 35.10 0.00 7.33 292.7
2 19 61.00 45.00 0.00 12.00 304.7
2 20 59.00 36.00 0.00 7.51 312.2
2 21 60.10 42.10 0.00 10.10 322.3
2 22 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.78 329.1
2 23 60.10 32.00 0.00 7.29 336.4
2 24 59.00 28.00 0.00 6.25 342.6
2 25 53.10 36.00 0.00 4.73 347.4
2 26 54.00 46.90 0.05 9.45 356.8
2 27 55.00 46.00 1.02 9.50 366.3
2 28 57.00 36.00 0.00 6.56 372.9
3 1 57.00 30.00 0.02 5.62 378.5
3 2 55.90 36.00 0.03 6.04 384.5
3 3 57.90 28.90 0.00 5.88 390.4
3 4 59.00 27.00 0.00 6.13 396.6
3 5 61.00 30.90 0.00 7.53 404.1
3 6 64.90 33.10 0.00 9.72 413.8
3 7 71.10 33.10 0.00 12.66 426.5
3 8 66.90 33.10 0.00 10.66 437.1
3 9 68.00 35.10 0.00 11.63 448.7
3 10 61.00 35.10 0.08 8.27 457.0
3 11 59.00 48.90 0.08 12.95 470.0
3 12 68.00 46.90 0.00 16.45 486.4
3 13 63.00 46.00 0.28 13.50 499.9
3 14 57.90 52.00 1.64 13.95 513.9
3 15 60.10 42.10 0.50 10.10 524.0
3 16 64.00 37.90 0.00 10.41 534.4
3 17 59.00 37.90 0.01 7.96 542.3
3 18 63.00 42.10 0.00 11.55 553.9
3 19 66.00 37.40 0.00 11.25 565.1
3 20 62.10 42.10 0.20 11.10 576.2
3 21 60.10 44.10 0.04 11.10 587.3
3 22 57.00 44.10 0.10 9.55 596.9
3 23 54.00 42.10 0.58 7.05 603.9
3 24 57.00 43.00 0.20 9.00 612.9
3 25 63.00 48.90 0.16 14.95 627.9
3 26 72.00 39.00 0.00 14.71 642.6
3 27 66.00 39.00 0.01 11.73 654.3
3 28 61.00 45.00 0.01 12.00 666.3
3 29 66.90 39.90 0.00 12.49 678.8
3 30 68.00 39.00 0.09 12.72 691.6
3 31 55.00 42.10 0.04 7.55 699.1
4 1 52.00 37.00 0.17 4.40 703.5
4 2 57.90 36.00 0.00 6.99 710.5
4 3 51.10 34.00 0.14 3.54 714.0
4 4 55.00 33.10 0.00 5.15 719.2
4 5 55.00 30.90 0.07 4.86 724.0
4 6 55.90 36.00 0.05 6.04 730.1
4 7 61.00 42.10 0.10 10.55 740.6
4 8 57.90 44.10 0.51 10.00 750.6
4 9 64.90 36.00 0.00 10.35 761.0
4 10 59.00 37.00 0.06 7.74 768.7
4 11 55.90 39.00 0.13 6.75 775.5
4 12 59.00 36.00 0.00 7.51 783.0
4 13 53.10 39.00 0.20 5.37 788.4
4 14 54.00 36.00 0.09 5.15 793.5
4 15 60.10 33.10 0.00 7.47 801.0
4 16 73.00 35.10 0.00 14.05 815.0
4 17 73.90 39.00 0.00 15.65 830.7
4 18 77.00 37.90 0.00 16.82 847.5
4 19 79.00 39.00 0.00 18.19 865.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 20 79.00 42.10 0.00 19.55 885.2
4 21 64.90 39.00 0.00 11.19 896.4
4 22 60.10 36.00 0.00 8.04 904.5
4 23 55.00 37.00 0.07 5.82 910.3
4 24 57.00 44.10 0.15 9.55 919.8
4 25 61.00 39.90 0.09 9.56 929.4
4 26 57.00 37.90 0.02 6.99 936.4
4 27 80.10 37.00 0.00 18.07 954.5 Peak female adult emergence
4 28 64.00 42.10 0.04 12.05 966.5
4 29 64.90 35.60 0.00 10.25 976.8
4 30 72.00 37.00 0.00 14.08 990.8
5 1 75.00 43.00 0.00 18.00 1008.8 Peak egg laying
5 2 72.00 39.00 0.00 14.71 1023.6
5 3 75.00 36.00 0.00 15.27 1038.8
5 4 64.00 41.00 0.02 11.50 1050.3
5 5 63.00 42.10 0.11 11.55 1061.9
5 6 64.00 42.10 0.08 12.05 1073.9
5 7 72.00 37.00 0.00 14.08 1088.0
5 8 80.10 37.90 0.00 18.36 1106.4
5 9 82.00 43.00 0.00 21.50 1127.9
5 10 72.00 46.90 0.00 18.45 1146.3
5 11 61.00 46.90 0.18 12.95 1159.3
5 12 55.00 48.90 0.24 10.95 1170.2
5 13 62.10 46.90 0.00 13.50 1183.7
5 14 69.10 42.10 0.00 14.60 1198.3
5 15 62.10 48.00 0.00 14.05 1212.4
5 16 63.00 51.10 0.02 16.05 1228.4
5 17 71.10 51.10 0.00 20.10 1248.5
5 18 75.00 48.00 0.13 20.50 1269.0
5 19 64.90 52.00 0.00 17.45 1286.5 Peak egg hatch
5 20 72.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 1307.5
5 21 75.00 53.10 0.12 23.05 1330.5
5 22 63.00 53.10 0.07 17.05 1347.6
5 23 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 1365.6
5 24 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1385.1
5 25 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1404.7
5 26 72.00 51.10 0.00 20.55 1425.2
5 27 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 1448.7
5 28 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 1475.7
5 29 79.00 52.00 0.00 24.50 1500.2
5 30 79.00 48.90 0.00 22.95 1523.2
5 31 84.90 53.10 0.22 28.00 1551.2
6 1 63.00 53.10 0.28 17.05 1568.2
6 2 61.00 53.10 0.08 16.05 1584.3
6 3 66.00 51.10 0.09 17.55 1601.8
6 4 75.00 48.00 0.00 20.50 1622.3
6 5 86.00 48.90 0.00 26.45 1648.8
6 6 90.00 51.10 0.00 29.55 1678.3
6 7 93.00 54.00 0.00 32.50 1710.8
6 8 95.00 53.10 0.00 33.05 1743.9
6 9 91.00 52.00 0.00 30.50 1774.4
6 10 80.10 46.90 0.00 22.50 1796.9
6 11 82.90 48.00 0.00 24.45 1821.3
6 12 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 1841.3
6 13 78.10 43.00 0.00 19.55 1860.8
6 14 88.00 43.00 0.00 24.50 1885.3
6 15 82.00 50.00 0.00 25.00 1910.3
6 16 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 1932.8
6 17 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 1955.8
6 18 82.00 53.10 0.00 26.55 1982.4
6 19 78.10 54.00 0.00 25.05 2007.4
6 20 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 2032.9
6 21 82.90 54.00 0.00 27.45 2060.3
6 22 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 2082.8 Peak in density large larvae
6 23 84.90 50.00 0.00 26.45 2109.3
6 24 86.00 55.90 0.00 29.95 2139.2
6 25 93.00 55.00 0.00 33.00 2172.2
6 26 99.00 60.10 0.00 38.55 2210.8
6 27 91.90 64.00 0.00 36.95 2247.7
6 28 82.00 63.00 0.00 31.50 2279.2
6 29 91.00 57.00 0.00 33.00 2312.2
6 30 95.00 57.90 0.00 35.45 2347.7
7 1 98.10 55.90 0.00 36.00 2383.7
7 2 100.00 57.90 0.00 37.95 2421.6
7 3 98.10 61.00 0.00 38.55 2460.2
7 4 95.00 55.90 0.00 34.45 2494.6
7 5 93.00 60.10 0.00 35.55 2530.2
7 6 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 2561.7
7 7 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 2591.2
7 8 91.90 55.90 0.00 32.90 2624.1
7 9 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 2652.6
7 10 78.10 60.10 0.00 28.10 2680.7
7 11 72.00 63.00 0.00 26.50 2707.2
7 12 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 2737.2
7 13 82.00 59.00 0.00 29.50 2766.7
7 14 86.00 53.10 0.00 28.55 2795.2
7 15 84.90 52.00 0.00 27.45 2822.7
7 16 82.00 53.10 0.00 26.55 2849.2
7 17 89.10 48.90 0.00 28.00 2877.2
7 18 98.10 54.00 0.00 35.05 2912.3
7 19 93.90 61.00 0.00 36.45 2948.7
7 20 88.00 55.90 0.00 30.95 2979.7
7 21 80.10 54.00 0.00 26.05 3005.7
7 22 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 3026.7
7 23 82.90 55.90 0.00 28.40 3055.1
7 24 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 3081.1
7 25 73.90 55.00 0.01 23.45 3104.5
7 26 73.00 54.00 0.00 22.50 3127.0
7 27 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 3149.5
7 28 89.10 48.00 0.00 27.55 3177.1
7 29 100.00 55.00 0.00 36.50 3213.6
7 30 106.00 55.90 0.00 39.95 3253.5
7 31 102.90 57.90 0.00 39.40 3292.9
8 1 102.90 51.10 0.00 36.00 3328.9
8 2 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 3357.9
8 3 82.90 60.10 0.00 30.50 3388.4
8 4 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 3416.0
8 5 82.90 48.90 0.00 24.90 3440.9
8 6 82.90 48.00 0.00 24.45 3465.3
8 7 87.10 52.00 0.00 28.55 3493.9
8 8 81.00 54.00 0.00 26.50 3520.4
8 9 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 3549.3
8 10 84.90 63.00 0.00 32.95 3582.3
8 11 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 3614.8
8 12 91.00 60.10 0.00 34.55 3649.3
8 13 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 3678.8
8 14 75.00 57.90 0.00 25.45 3704.3
8 15 80.10 60.10 0.00 29.10 3733.4
8 16 86.00 48.90 0.00 26.45 3759.8
8 17 91.90 51.10 0.00 30.50 3790.3
8 18 99.00 52.00 0.00 34.50 3824.8
8 19 97.00 57.00 0.00 36.00 3860.8
8 20 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 3888.8
8 21 80.10 48.90 0.00 23.50 3912.3
8 22 87.10 46.00 0.00 25.55 3937.8
8 23 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 3965.4
8 24 84.00 48.90 0.00 25.45 3990.8
8 25 86.00 46.00 0.00 25.00 4015.8
8 26 88.00 48.90 0.00 27.45 4043.3
8 27 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 4072.3
8 28 78.10 62.10 0.23 29.10 4101.4
8 29 73.00 64.40 0.35 27.70 4129.1
8 30 73.00 59.00 0.09 25.00 4154.1
8 31 73.00 57.90 0.00 24.45 4178.5
9 1 75.00 54.00 0.00 23.50 4202.0
9 2 73.00 52.00 0.00 21.50 4223.5
9 3 66.90 46.00 0.02 15.45 4239.0
9 4 68.00 43.00 0.24 14.50 4253.5
9 5 71.10 44.10 0.00 16.60 4270.1
9 6 71.10 43.00 0.02 16.05 4286.1
9 7 77.00 52.00 0.00 23.50 4309.6
9 8 84.00 48.00 0.00 25.00 4334.6
9 9 87.10 51.10 0.00 28.10 4362.7
9 10 90.00 51.10 0.00 29.55 4392.3
9 11 96.10 53.10 0.00 33.60 4425.9
9 12 89.10 57.90 0.00 32.50 4458.4
9 13 80.10 51.10 0.00 24.60 4483.0
9 14 62.10 46.00 0.01 13.05 4496.0
9 15 64.00 44.10 0.05 13.05 4509.1
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2015 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-19-15 | 866 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-27-15 | 954 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-1-15 | 1009 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-19-15 | 1286 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-22-15 | 2083 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?4032411)
