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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.40 33.10 0.00 1.53 1.5 * START *
1 2 44.60 32.00 0.02 0.84 2.4
1 3 43.00 37.40 0.07 0.53 2.9
1 4 53.60 33.80 0.01 4.62 7.5
1 5 55.40 48.00 0.19 10.70 18.2
1 6 50.00 41.00 0.21 4.50 22.7
1 7 48.90 35.60 0.14 2.78 25.5
1 8 51.80 39.20 0.21 4.79 30.3
1 9 55.40 37.00 0.21 6.01 36.3
1 10 55.40 33.80 0.02 5.43 41.7
1 11 48.90 42.80 0.34 4.85 46.6
1 12 53.60 46.00 0.12 8.80 55.4
1 13 53.60 46.40 0.12 9.00 64.4
1 14 54.00 43.00 0.33 7.50 71.9
1 15 48.20 44.60 0.28 5.40 77.3
1 16 48.90 42.80 0.22 4.85 82.1
1 17 48.00 42.80 0.04 4.40 86.5
1 18 48.90 39.20 1.39 3.39 89.9
1 19 45.00 35.10 0.00 1.13 91.0
1 20 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 91.3
1 21 45.00 35.10 0.27 1.13 92.5
1 22 46.90 37.00 0.00 2.08 94.5
1 23 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 98.1
1 24 45.00 35.10 0.00 1.13 99.2
1 25 51.10 42.10 0.00 5.60 104.8
1 26 45.00 39.20 0.05 1.54 106.4
1 27 53.60 42.10 0.06 6.85 113.2
1 28 46.90 35.10 0.08 1.88 115.1
1 29 41.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 115.1
1 30 42.80 17.60 0.00 0.21 115.3
1 31 41.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 115.3
2 1 48.90 24.80 0.00 1.99 117.3
2 2 46.40 23.00 0.00 1.13 118.4
2 3 48.90 33.10 0.16 2.51 120.9
2 4 51.80 42.10 0.11 5.95 126.9
2 5 48.90 41.00 0.21 3.95 130.8
2 6 48.20 41.00 0.06 3.60 134.4
2 7 48.90 41.00 0.28 3.95 138.4
2 8 50.00 37.40 0.02 3.54 141.9
2 9 57.90 39.00 0.03 7.73 149.6
2 10 55.90 35.60 0.09 5.97 155.6
2 11 50.00 30.90 0.00 2.77 158.4
2 12 51.80 28.40 0.08 3.29 161.7
2 13 46.40 33.80 0.46 1.58 163.2
2 14 46.40 26.10 0.06 1.22 164.5
2 15 45.00 26.10 0.00 0.80 165.3
2 16 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 166.5
2 17 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 168.4
2 18 46.90 37.40 0.04 2.13 170.5
2 19 50.00 42.10 0.00 5.05 175.6
2 20 50.00 44.10 0.04 6.05 181.6
2 21 46.40 35.60 0.28 1.72 183.4
2 22 37.90 30.00 0.26 0.00 183.4
2 23 37.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 183.4
2 24 43.00 15.80 0.00 0.23 183.6
2 25 45.00 19.00 0.09 0.68 184.3
2 26 42.80 33.10 0.16 0.34 184.6
2 27 44.60 35.60 0.18 1.01 185.6
2 28 39.90 30.00 0.03 0.00 185.6
3 1 44.60 28.00 0.07 0.73 186.3
3 2 48.20 34.00 0.20 2.31 188.6
3 3 44.60 33.80 0.16 0.92 189.6
3 4 46.40 37.00 0.21 1.86 191.4
3 5 45.00 30.20 0.00 0.91 192.3
3 6 46.90 37.00 0.12 2.08 194.4
3 7 50.00 35.10 0.10 3.20 197.6
3 8 45.00 33.10 0.01 1.02 198.6
3 9 46.40 39.00 0.22 2.15 200.8
3 10 50.00 37.40 0.78 3.54 204.3
3 11 55.00 34.00 0.00 5.28 209.6
3 12 50.00 28.00 0.22 2.56 212.2
3 13 48.20 37.40 0.44 2.72 214.9
3 14 55.40 37.00 0.01 6.01 220.9
3 15 53.60 35.10 0.04 4.81 225.7
3 16 63.00 28.00 0.00 8.01 233.7
3 17 64.90 28.00 0.00 8.86 242.6
3 18 66.90 37.90 0.00 11.83 254.4
3 19 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 261.8
3 20 51.80 44.60 2.48 7.20 269.0
3 21 61.00 39.00 0.01 9.26 278.3
3 22 64.90 35.10 0.06 10.14 288.4
3 23 46.90 37.40 0.23 2.13 290.6
3 24 44.60 35.60 0.36 1.01 291.6
3 25 48.20 33.80 0.09 2.29 293.9
3 26 46.40 33.80 0.16 1.58 295.5
3 27 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 301.2
3 28 55.90 42.80 0.10 8.35 309.5
3 29 59.00 39.20 0.03 8.33 317.9
3 30 54.00 42.80 0.00 7.40 325.3
3 31 48.20 42.80 0.51 4.50 329.8
4 1 50.00 37.40 0.29 3.54 333.3
4 2 46.40 37.00 0.22 1.86 335.2
4 3 48.90 35.60 0.04 2.78 338.0
4 4 51.80 37.00 0.02 4.31 342.3
4 5 52.00 37.00 0.08 4.40 346.7
4 6 54.00 46.00 0.37 9.00 355.7
4 7 52.00 45.00 0.55 7.50 363.2
4 8 54.00 44.60 0.06 8.30 371.5
4 9 54.00 48.00 0.76 10.00 381.5
4 10 48.20 42.10 0.85 4.15 385.6
4 11 54.00 41.00 0.34 6.50 392.1
4 12 53.60 33.10 0.23 4.52 396.6
4 13 54.00 33.80 0.00 4.80 401.4
4 14 61.00 32.00 0.00 7.70 409.1
4 15 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 417.0
4 16 52.00 39.90 0.33 5.09 422.1
4 17 51.80 37.40 0.30 4.38 426.4
4 18 48.90 37.40 0.17 3.03 429.5
4 19 50.00 39.00 0.13 3.87 433.4
4 20 46.90 37.00 0.54 2.08 435.4
4 21 57.90 42.80 0.01 9.35 444.8
4 22 64.90 46.00 0.42 14.45 459.2
4 23 55.40 46.40 0.06 9.90 469.1
4 24 57.90 44.10 0.09 10.00 479.1
4 25 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 492.6
4 26 75.20 41.00 0.00 17.10 509.7
4 27 78.80 44.10 0.00 20.45 530.2
4 28 91.40 46.40 0.00 27.90 558.1
4 29 79.00 48.20 0.00 22.60 580.7
4 30 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 596.2
5 1 59.00 46.00 0.00 11.50 607.7
5 2 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 626.6
5 3 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 644.6
5 4 52.00 48.00 0.61 9.00 653.6
5 5 55.40 48.20 0.12 10.80 664.4
5 6 60.80 50.00 0.02 14.40 678.8
5 7 62.60 44.10 0.00 12.35 691.1
5 8 70.00 37.40 0.00 13.21 704.3
5 9 68.00 46.00 0.00 16.00 720.3
5 10 75.90 41.00 0.00 17.45 737.8
5 11 78.80 44.60 0.00 20.70 758.5
5 12 87.80 46.00 0.00 25.90 784.4
5 13 93.20 50.00 0.00 30.60 815.0
5 14 95.00 53.10 0.00 33.05 848.0
5 15 86.00 55.40 0.03 29.70 877.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 16 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 904.9
5 17 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 935.5
5 18 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 958.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 19 79.00 55.40 0.00 26.20 984.2
5 20 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 1007.7 Peak egg laying
5 21 63.00 48.00 0.00 14.50 1022.2
5 22 64.40 46.00 0.02 14.20 1036.4
5 23 64.90 45.00 0.00 13.95 1050.3
5 24 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 1068.6
5 25 82.40 46.00 0.00 23.20 1091.8
5 26 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 1117.6
5 27 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1137.1
5 28 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1156.5
5 29 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1175.4
5 30 64.90 46.40 0.00 14.65 1190.1
5 31 66.20 37.40 0.00 11.35 1201.4
6 1 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 1215.2
6 2 73.90 41.00 0.00 16.45 1231.6
6 3 75.20 42.10 0.00 17.65 1249.3
6 4 75.90 41.00 0.00 17.45 1266.7
6 5 79.00 46.40 0.00 21.70 1288.4 Peak egg hatch
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1288.
QA 100% ok
| |
| This year is about | versus | QA |
| 8 days ahead | 2022 | ok |
| 4 days behind | 2021 | ok |
| 4 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 6 78.00 52.00 0.00 24.00 1312.4 Sunny
6 7 89.00 56.00 0.00 31.50 1343.9 Mostly_Sunny
6 8 88.00 53.00 0.00 29.50 1373.4 Partly_Cloudy
6 9 83.00 55.00 0.00 28.00 1401.4 Mostly_Cloudy_5%_precip
6 10 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 1423.4 Mostly_Cloudy_10%_precip
6 11 76.00 53.00 0.00 23.50 1446.9 Partly_Cloudy_10%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 72.10 51.30 0.05 20.70 1467.6 *hist_fcst*
6 13 69.50 50.70 0.16 19.10 1486.7 *hist_fcst*
6 14 64.30 50.60 0.17 16.45 1503.2 *hist_fcst*
6 15 65.50 49.50 0.18 16.50 1519.7 *hist_fcst*
6 16 69.20 50.10 0.08 18.65 1538.3 *hist_fcst*
6 17 69.90 51.50 0.01 19.70 1558.0 *hist_fcst*
6 18 72.80 51.10 0.03 20.95 1579.0 *hist_fcst*
6 19 72.00 51.50 0.02 20.75 1599.7 *hist_fcst*
6 20 74.10 51.40 0.02 21.75 1621.5 *hist_fcst*
6 21 74.60 52.70 0.01 22.65 1644.1 *hist_fcst*
6 22 74.40 53.00 0.00 22.70 1666.8 *hist_fcst*
6 23 75.20 52.50 0.09 22.85 1689.7 *hist_fcst*
6 24 74.50 53.00 0.11 22.75 1712.4 *hist_fcst*
6 25 76.80 54.40 0.10 24.60 1737.0 *hist_fcst*
6 26 78.10 54.70 0.03 25.40 1762.4 *hist_fcst*
6 27 77.50 55.90 0.07 25.70 1788.1 *hist_fcst*
6 28 77.90 56.60 0.03 26.25 1814.4 *hist_fcst*
6 29 76.40 55.40 0.02 24.90 1839.3 *hist_fcst*
6 30 76.30 56.10 0.00 25.20 1864.5 *hist_fcst*
7 1 76.40 56.40 0.01 25.40 1889.9 *hist_fcst*
7 2 76.90 56.00 0.01 25.45 1915.3 *hist_fcst*
7 3 74.90 56.00 0.01 24.45 1939.8 *hist_fcst*
7 4 73.90 52.90 0.00 22.40 1962.2 *hist_fcst*
7 5 76.50 53.00 0.00 23.75 1985.9 *hist_fcst*
7 6 78.40 54.10 0.00 25.25 2011.2 *hist_fcst*
7 7 78.10 55.40 0.01 25.75 2036.9 *hist_fcst*
7 8 74.70 56.00 0.03 24.35 2061.3 *hist_fcst*
7 9 77.80 55.10 0.03 25.45 2086.7 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 10 77.30 55.60 0.04 25.45 2112.2 *hist_fcst*
7 11 76.10 54.80 0.00 24.45 2136.6 *hist_fcst*
7 12 76.70 55.00 0.00 24.85 2161.5 *hist_fcst*
7 13 78.20 55.50 0.00 25.85 2187.3 *hist_fcst*
7 14 78.00 54.10 0.00 25.05 2212.4 *hist_fcst*
7 15 80.70 53.80 0.02 26.25 2238.6 *hist_fcst*
7 16 79.00 55.30 0.00 26.15 2264.8 *hist_fcst*
7 17 78.40 56.00 0.01 26.20 2291.0 *hist_fcst*
7 18 75.90 55.20 0.01 24.55 2315.5 *hist_fcst*
7 19 79.50 56.00 0.00 26.75 2342.3 *hist_fcst*
7 20 79.30 55.30 0.01 26.30 2368.6 *hist_fcst*
7 21 77.90 53.80 0.00 24.85 2393.4 *hist_fcst*
7 22 78.10 54.50 0.00 25.30 2418.7 *hist_fcst*
7 23 77.60 55.80 0.01 25.70 2444.4 *hist_fcst*
7 24 76.80 55.30 0.05 25.05 2469.5 *hist_fcst*
7 25 80.40 53.90 0.01 26.15 2495.6 *hist_fcst*
7 26 82.50 55.80 0.00 28.15 2523.8 *hist_fcst*
7 27 81.30 56.60 0.00 27.95 2551.7 *hist_fcst*
7 28 79.50 55.50 0.00 26.50 2578.2 *hist_fcst*
7 29 82.10 55.50 0.00 27.80 2606.0 *hist_fcst*
7 30 85.30 56.50 0.00 29.90 2635.9 *hist_fcst*
7 31 84.60 56.80 0.00 29.70 2665.6 *hist_fcst*
8 1 80.20 57.10 0.00 27.65 2693.3 *hist_fcst*
8 2 80.80 57.60 0.01 28.20 2721.5 *hist_fcst*
8 3 78.70 58.50 0.01 27.60 2749.1 *hist_fcst*
8 4 83.50 57.40 0.00 29.45 2778.5 *hist_fcst*
8 5 85.80 57.20 0.00 30.50 2809.0 *hist_fcst*
8 6 79.50 58.20 0.02 27.85 2836.9 *hist_fcst*
8 7 78.60 56.70 0.01 26.65 2863.5 *hist_fcst*
8 8 77.00 56.90 0.02 25.95 2889.5 *hist_fcst*
8 9 77.10 56.30 0.01 25.70 2915.2 *hist_fcst*
8 10 79.80 56.00 0.01 26.90 2942.1 *hist_fcst*
8 11 82.00 57.80 0.03 28.90 2971.0 *hist_fcst*
8 12 83.00 58.30 0.00 29.65 3000.6 *hist_fcst*
8 13 82.80 57.90 0.05 29.35 3030.0 *hist_fcst*
8 14 82.00 56.20 0.00 28.10 3058.1 *hist_fcst*
8 15 81.70 56.80 0.01 28.25 3086.3 *hist_fcst*
8 16 81.10 58.90 0.01 29.00 3115.3 *hist_fcst*
8 17 82.00 57.30 0.00 28.65 3144.0 *hist_fcst*
8 18 79.80 57.00 0.00 27.40 3171.4 *hist_fcst*
8 19 81.90 56.10 0.00 28.00 3199.4 *hist_fcst*
8 20 80.30 56.10 0.00 27.20 3226.6 *hist_fcst*
8 21 79.00 55.60 0.02 26.30 3252.9 *hist_fcst*
8 22 77.90 53.80 0.03 24.85 3277.7 *hist_fcst*
8 23 75.90 52.10 0.00 23.00 3300.7 *hist_fcst*
8 24 78.10 52.30 0.00 24.20 3324.9 *hist_fcst*
8 25 77.70 52.10 0.00 23.90 3348.8 *hist_fcst*
8 26 78.90 52.60 0.03 24.75 3373.6 *hist_fcst*
8 27 80.40 54.80 0.03 26.60 3400.2 *hist_fcst*
8 28 81.20 55.30 0.02 27.25 3427.4 *hist_fcst*
8 29 83.10 55.80 0.04 28.45 3455.9 *hist_fcst*
8 30 75.90 56.20 0.09 25.05 3480.9 *hist_fcst*
8 31 73.30 55.00 0.06 23.15 3504.1 *hist_fcst*
9 1 74.40 53.90 0.03 23.15 3527.2 *hist_fcst*
9 2 77.40 53.30 0.03 24.35 3551.6 *hist_fcst*
9 3 78.10 52.80 0.09 24.45 3576.0 *hist_fcst*
9 4 78.50 53.40 0.01 24.95 3601.0 *hist_fcst*
9 5 78.40 52.70 0.01 24.55 3625.5 *hist_fcst*
9 6 79.20 55.20 0.23 26.20 3651.7 *hist_fcst*
9 7 78.70 55.50 0.03 26.10 3677.8 *hist_fcst*
9 8 79.40 56.50 0.01 26.95 3704.8 *hist_fcst*
9 9 75.80 55.30 0.05 24.55 3729.3 *hist_fcst*
9 10 76.20 54.90 0.05 24.55 3753.9 *hist_fcst*
9 11 75.30 52.10 0.01 22.70 3776.6 *hist_fcst*
9 12 76.40 51.10 0.03 22.75 3799.3 *hist_fcst*
9 13 75.40 50.20 0.03 21.80 3821.1 *hist_fcst*
9 14 74.60 49.80 0.01 21.20 3842.3 *hist_fcst*
9 15 75.90 50.80 0.10 22.35 3864.7 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1288. QA 100% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | | | This year is about | versus | QA | | 8 days ahead | 2022 | ok | | 4 days behind | 2021 | ok | | 4 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
| Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-15-23 | 878 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-18-23 | 958 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-20-23 | 1008 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-5-23 | 1288 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-9-23 | 2087 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?37748)
