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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 32.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 46.90 30.00 1.25 1.54 1.5
1 3 43.00 35.60 0.56 0.45 2.0
1 4 43.00 37.00 0.24 0.51 2.5
1 5 41.00 35.60 1.22 0.00 2.5
1 6 53.60 39.00 1.52 5.62 8.1
1 7 50.00 39.00 0.11 3.87 12.0
1 8 46.90 30.00 0.01 1.54 13.5
1 9 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 16.1
1 10 48.90 30.00 0.13 2.27 18.4
1 11 53.60 44.10 0.15 7.85 26.2
1 12 59.00 44.60 0.02 10.80 37.0
1 13 53.60 44.10 0.23 7.85 44.9
1 14 52.00 42.10 0.10 6.05 50.9
1 15 46.40 39.00 0.00 2.15 53.1
1 16 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 55.3
1 17 45.00 39.00 0.02 1.51 56.8
1 18 46.40 39.20 0.01 2.19 59.0
1 19 48.90 44.60 0.14 5.75 64.7
1 20 52.00 41.00 0.21 5.50 70.2
1 21 46.90 39.00 0.00 2.39 72.6
1 22 48.20 30.00 0.00 2.01 74.6
1 23 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 76.0
1 24 43.00 33.10 0.00 0.39 76.4
1 25 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.37 76.8
1 26 41.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 76.8
1 27 54.00 27.00 0.00 4.05 80.8
1 28 48.90 23.00 0.00 1.91 82.7
1 29 46.90 26.10 0.00 1.38 84.1
1 30 48.20 37.00 0.32 2.66 86.7
1 31 46.40 35.60 0.25 1.72 88.5
2 1 45.00 35.60 0.03 1.16 89.6
2 2 43.00 39.00 0.09 0.64 90.3
2 3 48.20 33.10 0.03 2.23 92.5
2 4 44.60 32.00 0.02 0.84 93.3
2 5 52.00 32.00 0.04 3.70 97.0
2 6 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 102.2
2 7 50.00 35.10 0.01 3.20 105.4
2 8 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 109.3
2 9 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 120.1
2 10 48.90 39.00 0.00 3.34 123.4
2 11 59.00 37.00 0.00 7.74 131.2
2 12 60.80 30.00 0.00 7.30 138.5
2 13 59.00 28.00 0.00 6.25 144.7
2 14 48.20 42.80 0.21 4.50 149.2
2 15 50.00 37.90 0.02 3.63 152.9
2 16 50.00 42.80 0.05 5.40 158.3
2 17 52.00 41.00 0.00 5.50 163.8
2 18 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 169.9
2 19 45.00 41.00 0.26 2.00 171.9
2 20 46.90 39.00 0.26 2.39 174.2
2 21 45.00 35.60 0.21 1.16 175.4
2 22 37.90 28.90 0.02 0.00 175.4
2 23 39.90 19.40 0.08 0.00 175.4
2 24 41.00 24.10 0.01 0.00 175.4
2 25 51.80 21.20 0.00 2.83 178.2
2 26 43.00 28.40 0.21 0.32 178.6
2 27 53.60 39.20 0.40 5.67 184.2
2 28 57.20 51.10 1.94 13.15 197.4
3 1 57.90 51.10 0.09 13.50 210.9
3 2 54.00 46.00 0.32 9.00 219.9
3 3 53.60 39.20 0.01 5.67 225.6
3 4 53.60 35.10 0.01 4.81 230.4
3 5 55.40 28.40 0.00 4.76 235.1
3 6 57.00 35.10 0.00 6.39 241.5
3 7 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 243.8
3 8 48.20 42.10 0.05 4.15 248.0
3 9 52.00 30.00 0.01 3.50 251.5
3 10 51.80 24.10 0.00 2.99 254.5
3 11 60.80 35.10 0.00 8.18 262.6
3 12 61.00 28.00 0.35 7.12 269.8
3 13 55.40 42.80 0.17 8.10 277.9
3 14 52.00 46.00 0.21 8.00 285.9
3 15 55.90 44.10 0.14 9.00 294.9
3 16 57.90 37.00 0.01 7.21 302.1
3 17 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 306.1
3 18 57.90 44.60 0.11 10.25 316.4
3 19 52.00 37.90 0.14 4.58 321.0
3 20 50.00 39.00 0.24 3.87 324.8
3 21 50.00 42.10 0.14 5.05 329.9
3 22 68.00 48.20 0.02 17.10 347.0
3 23 59.00 41.00 0.10 9.00 356.0
3 24 63.00 37.00 0.00 9.68 365.7
3 25 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 375.6
3 26 63.00 44.10 0.02 12.55 388.1
3 27 64.40 44.10 0.00 13.25 401.4
3 28 61.00 48.00 0.00 13.50 414.9
3 29 57.90 46.40 0.00 11.15 426.0
3 30 57.90 43.00 0.01 9.45 435.5
3 31 55.40 39.00 0.01 6.50 442.0
4 1 57.20 35.10 0.02 6.48 448.4
4 2 59.00 42.10 0.03 9.55 458.0
4 3 55.40 42.10 0.98 7.75 465.7
4 4 54.00 39.20 0.33 5.87 471.6
4 5 55.40 35.10 0.06 5.64 477.3
4 6 66.20 28.40 0.00 9.50 486.8
4 7 79.00 35.60 0.18 17.12 503.9
4 8 57.20 43.00 0.05 9.10 513.0
4 9 50.00 39.20 0.25 3.92 516.9
4 10 45.00 34.00 0.59 1.07 518.0
4 11 48.90 32.00 1.11 2.42 520.4
4 12 46.40 35.60 0.11 1.72 522.1
4 13 45.00 33.80 0.24 1.06 523.2
4 14 46.90 33.10 0.38 1.72 524.9
4 15 53.60 36.00 0.06 4.97 529.8
4 16 54.00 35.60 0.01 5.08 534.9
4 17 57.90 30.00 0.00 6.01 540.9
4 18 50.00 44.10 0.42 6.05 547.0
4 19 53.10 41.00 0.02 6.05 553.0
4 20 55.40 43.00 0.17 8.20 561.2
4 21 55.40 42.10 0.05 7.75 569.0
4 22 61.00 42.10 0.00 10.55 579.5
4 23 64.90 37.00 0.00 10.60 590.1
4 24 70.00 35.60 0.03 12.72 602.9
4 25 55.90 44.10 0.05 9.00 611.9
4 26 52.00 37.40 0.32 4.48 616.3
4 27 54.00 41.00 0.20 6.50 622.8
4 28 55.90 41.00 0.04 7.45 630.3
4 29 60.80 46.00 0.37 12.40 642.7
4 30 59.00 46.90 0.11 11.95 654.6
5 1 64.90 46.40 0.08 14.65 669.3
5 2 60.80 46.40 0.07 12.60 681.9
5 3 57.90 44.10 0.07 10.00 691.9
5 4 70.00 42.10 0.00 15.05 706.9
5 5 55.90 44.10 0.38 9.00 715.9
5 6 62.60 42.10 0.84 11.35 727.3
5 7 53.60 43.00 0.01 7.30 734.6
5 8 54.00 41.00 0.02 6.50 741.1
5 9 54.00 39.20 0.07 5.87 747.0
5 10 61.00 35.10 0.00 8.27 755.2
5 11 62.60 37.00 0.01 9.48 764.7
5 12 54.00 42.10 0.25 7.05 771.8
5 13 55.90 35.60 0.30 5.97 777.7
5 14 72.00 48.00 0.06 19.00 796.7
5 15 66.20 53.10 0.34 18.65 815.4
5 16 60.80 46.00 0.08 12.40 827.8
5 17 64.40 37.40 0.12 10.47 838.2
5 18 57.20 46.40 0.25 10.80 849.0
5 19 55.90 42.10 0.28 8.00 857.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 20 61.00 41.00 0.00 10.00 867.0
5 21 72.00 39.00 0.00 14.71 881.8
5 22 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 900.9
5 23 66.20 51.10 0.00 17.65 918.6
5 24 64.90 51.80 0.08 17.35 935.9
5 25 69.80 53.60 0.15 20.70 956.6 Peak female adult emergence
5 26 68.00 51.80 0.06 18.90 975.5
5 27 61.00 51.80 0.03 15.40 990.9
5 28 57.90 50.00 0.86 12.95 1003.9 Peak egg laying
5 29 59.00 48.20 0.08 12.60 1016.5
5 30 63.00 48.00 0.29 14.50 1031.0
5 31 78.80 42.80 0.00 19.80 1050.8
6 1 71.60 53.10 0.00 21.35 1072.1
6 2 75.20 55.00 0.00 24.10 1096.2
6 3 64.90 55.00 0.22 18.95 1115.2
6 4 63.00 53.60 0.61 17.30 1132.5
6 5 66.20 53.10 0.19 18.65 1151.1
6 6 64.90 44.60 0.00 13.75 1164.9
6 7 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 1183.5
6 8 73.40 57.00 0.00 24.20 1207.7
6 9 64.40 55.00 0.22 18.70 1226.4
6 10 66.20 55.40 0.76 19.80 1246.2
6 11 68.00 55.00 0.01 20.50 1266.7
6 12 59.00 50.00 0.21 13.50 1280.2 Peak egg hatch
6 13 57.20 48.20 0.11 11.70 1291.9
6 14 63.00 48.90 0.02 14.95 1306.9
6 15 66.90 44.60 0.02 14.75 1321.6
6 16 66.20 53.10 0.03 18.65 1340.3
6 17 57.20 51.10 0.23 13.15 1353.4
6 18 64.90 51.80 0.00 17.35 1370.8
6 19 66.90 53.60 0.00 19.25 1390.0
6 20 69.80 53.10 0.00 20.45 1410.5
6 21 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1436.6
6 22 72.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 1457.6
6 23 72.00 44.60 0.00 17.30 1474.9
6 24 82.40 46.00 0.00 23.20 1498.1
6 25 91.90 50.00 0.00 29.95 1528.0
6 26 97.00 53.60 0.00 34.30 1562.3
6 27 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 1594.6
6 28 66.00 55.00 0.00 19.50 1614.1
6 29 69.10 55.00 0.00 21.05 1635.2
6 30 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1661.3
7 1 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 1684.8
7 2 66.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1704.9
7 3 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 1726.3
7 4 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 1748.3
7 5 72.00 53.10 0.13 21.55 1769.8
7 6 73.40 60.10 0.05 25.75 1795.6
7 7 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 1820.8
7 8 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 1848.7
7 9 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1872.1
7 10 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 1899.1
7 11 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 1933.5
7 12 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 1961.6
7 13 75.20 55.00 0.00 24.10 1985.7
7 14 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 2009.3
7 15 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 2036.1
7 16 73.90 60.10 0.00 26.00 2062.1
7 17 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 2083.7 Peak in density large larvae
7 18 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2107.1
7 19 89.60 53.60 0.00 30.60 2137.7
7 20 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 2168.3
7 21 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2195.3
7 22 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 2220.5
7 23 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2244.8
7 24 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 2276.3
7 25 96.80 60.10 0.10 37.45 2313.7
7 26 93.90 59.00 0.00 35.45 2349.2
7 27 91.40 60.10 0.00 34.75 2383.9
7 28 89.60 60.80 0.00 34.20 2418.1
7 29 91.90 60.80 0.00 35.35 2453.5
7 30 102.00 60.80 0.00 40.40 2493.9
7 31 91.00 60.80 0.00 34.90 2528.8
8 1 79.00 60.80 0.01 28.90 2557.7
8 2 82.90 60.80 0.00 30.85 2588.5
8 3 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2613.7
8 4 73.90 55.90 0.02 23.90 2637.6
8 5 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 2662.7
8 6 90.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 2691.7
8 7 98.10 55.00 0.00 35.55 2727.2
8 8 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 2756.0
8 9 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 2787.5
8 10 73.90 57.90 0.00 24.90 2812.4
8 11 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 2840.3
8 12 75.90 57.90 0.00 25.90 2866.2
8 13 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 2891.8
8 14 84.00 51.80 0.00 26.90 2918.7
8 15 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 2946.7
8 16 89.60 60.10 0.00 33.85 2980.5
8 17 96.80 59.00 0.00 36.90 3017.4
8 18 90.00 64.40 0.00 36.20 3053.6
8 19 79.00 64.90 0.00 30.95 3084.6
8 20 75.90 61.00 0.00 27.45 3112.0
8 21 80.60 62.60 0.00 30.60 3142.6
8 22 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 3173.2
8 23 82.90 60.80 0.00 30.85 3204.1
8 24 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 3236.4
8 25 82.40 62.60 0.00 31.50 3267.9
8 26 73.40 62.10 0.00 26.75 3294.6
8 27 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 3317.1
8 28 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 3342.3
8 29 91.40 53.60 0.00 31.50 3373.8
8 30 99.00 57.00 0.00 37.00 3410.8
8 31 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 3440.5
9 1 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 3472.0
9 2 77.00 60.10 0.00 27.55 3499.6
9 3 78.80 59.00 0.01 27.90 3527.5
9 4 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 3553.8
9 5 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 3578.1
9 6 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 3608.9
9 7 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 3634.9
9 8 80.60 44.60 0.00 21.60 3656.5
9 9 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 3684.4
9 10 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 3709.6
9 11 77.00 55.40 0.02 25.20 3734.8
9 12 73.90 60.80 0.12 26.35 3761.1
9 13 71.60 60.10 0.00 24.85 3786.0
9 14 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3809.4
9 15 75.20 55.90 0.00 24.55 3833.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-19-22 | 857 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-25-22 | 957 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-28-22 | 1004 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-12-22 | 1280 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-17-22 | 2084 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?26780)
