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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 52.00 46.40 0.13 8.20 8.2 * START *
1 2 50.00 48.00 2.06 8.00 16.2
1 3 52.00 41.00 0.23 5.50 21.7
1 4 51.80 44.10 0.45 6.95 28.7
1 5 48.90 44.60 0.47 5.75 34.4
1 6 48.90 44.60 0.07 5.75 40.2
1 7 54.00 42.10 0.03 7.05 47.2
1 8 52.00 33.80 0.15 3.91 51.1
1 9 46.40 33.10 0.04 1.53 52.6
1 10 46.90 41.00 0.01 2.95 55.6
1 11 50.00 42.80 1.23 5.40 61.0
1 12 57.90 50.00 0.98 12.95 73.9
1 13 57.20 39.00 1.19 7.38 81.3
1 14 53.60 36.00 0.02 4.97 86.3
1 15 51.80 39.90 0.03 4.99 91.3
1 16 48.90 41.00 0.06 3.95 95.2
1 17 53.60 42.80 0.53 7.20 102.4
1 18 50.00 35.10 0.00 3.20 105.6
1 19 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 108.2
1 20 39.90 28.00 0.00 0.00 108.2
1 21 52.00 42.10 0.01 6.05 114.3
1 22 48.90 30.00 0.00 2.27 116.5
1 23 45.00 24.80 0.00 0.77 117.3
1 24 39.90 35.60 0.31 0.00 117.3
1 25 39.90 34.00 0.19 0.00 117.3
1 26 41.00 35.10 0.22 0.00 117.3
1 27 44.10 35.60 0.12 0.83 118.1
1 28 46.90 39.20 0.01 2.43 120.6
1 29 46.40 39.00 0.11 2.15 122.7
1 30 51.80 42.10 0.24 5.95 128.7
1 31 54.00 44.60 0.16 8.30 137.0
2 1 51.80 46.90 0.32 8.35 145.3
2 2 48.20 41.00 0.56 3.60 148.9
2 3 45.00 39.00 0.89 1.51 150.4
2 4 44.60 41.00 0.23 1.80 152.2
2 5 52.00 42.80 0.16 6.40 158.6
2 6 46.90 41.00 0.29 2.95 161.6
2 7 48.20 37.90 0.25 2.80 164.4
2 8 45.00 33.10 0.07 1.02 165.4
2 9 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 166.1
2 10 45.00 26.10 0.00 0.80 166.9
2 11 37.40 30.00 0.27 0.00 166.9
2 12 30.90 26.60 0.32 0.00 166.9
2 13 32.00 26.10 0.06 0.00 166.9
2 14 33.80 28.40 0.54 0.00 166.9
2 15 44.10 33.10 0.37 0.72 167.6
2 16 48.90 37.40 0.06 3.03 170.6
2 17 46.40 34.00 0.01 1.59 172.2
2 18 42.80 33.80 0.25 0.35 172.6
2 19 46.90 39.00 0.39 2.39 175.0
2 20 48.90 39.00 0.03 3.34 178.3
2 21 50.00 42.80 0.43 5.40 183.7
2 22 51.80 43.00 1.36 6.40 190.1
2 23 46.90 37.00 0.26 2.08 192.2
2 24 46.90 30.20 0.19 1.55 193.7
2 25 46.40 39.00 0.44 2.15 195.9
2 26 48.90 39.00 0.25 3.34 199.2
2 27 48.90 30.00 0.02 2.27 201.5
2 28 54.00 41.00 0.04 6.50 208.0
3 1 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 215.1
3 2 51.80 34.00 0.00 3.85 218.9
3 3 58.20 30.00 0.00 6.15 225.1 Px
3 4 55.50 39.20 0.00 6.61 231.7 Px Pn
3 5 51.80 43.00 0.02 6.40 238.1
3 6 52.00 41.00 0.07 5.50 243.6
3 7 50.00 37.40 0.13 3.54 247.1
3 8 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 252.3
3 9 55.00 39.00 0.03 6.30 258.6
3 10 55.90 34.00 0.00 5.69 264.3
3 11 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 271.4
3 12 61.00 28.40 0.00 7.17 278.6
3 13 62.60 28.00 0.00 7.83 286.4
3 14 48.90 37.00 0.15 2.97 289.4
3 15 46.40 26.10 0.00 1.22 290.6
3 16 55.40 24.10 0.00 4.37 295.0
3 17 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 302.1
3 18 53.60 33.80 0.07 4.62 306.7
3 19 54.00 42.80 0.20 7.40 314.1
3 20 55.40 42.10 0.24 7.75 321.9
3 21 46.40 39.00 0.26 2.15 324.0
3 22 52.00 42.10 0.13 6.05 330.1
3 23 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 335.8
3 24 50.00 42.10 0.21 5.05 340.9
3 25 55.40 41.00 0.09 7.20 348.1
3 26 55.90 37.40 0.00 6.34 354.4
3 27 61.00 37.40 0.00 8.81 363.2
3 28 48.90 35.60 0.33 2.78 366.0
3 29 54.00 34.00 0.03 4.83 370.8
3 30 54.00 30.20 0.00 4.35 375.2
3 31 70.00 28.00 0.00 11.18 386.3
4 1 62.60 37.00 0.00 9.48 395.8
4 2 63.00 35.60 0.00 9.34 405.2
4 3 66.90 37.00 0.00 11.58 416.7
4 4 55.90 37.00 0.00 6.25 423.0
4 5 60.80 28.40 0.00 7.08 430.1
4 6 64.90 28.40 0.00 8.91 439.0
4 7 51.80 42.80 0.15 6.30 445.3
4 8 55.90 35.10 0.03 5.88 451.2
4 9 55.90 28.00 0.12 4.93 456.1
4 10 51.80 33.10 0.13 3.74 459.8
4 11 57.90 26.60 0.00 5.62 465.4
4 12 64.90 32.00 0.00 9.51 475.0
4 13 69.80 30.20 0.00 11.47 486.4
4 14 72.00 33.10 0.00 13.09 499.5
4 15 78.80 37.00 0.00 17.43 516.9
4 16 82.40 39.20 0.00 19.96 536.9
4 17 84.20 39.20 0.00 20.85 557.7
4 18 81.00 42.10 0.00 20.55 578.3
4 19 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 596.5
4 20 75.20 44.60 0.00 18.90 615.4
4 21 75.20 46.40 0.02 19.80 635.2
4 22 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 647.8
4 23 61.00 41.00 0.02 10.00 657.8
4 24 53.60 48.00 0.57 9.80 667.6
4 25 59.00 45.00 0.12 11.00 678.6
4 26 62.60 44.60 0.07 12.60 691.2
4 27 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 702.9
4 28 72.00 39.20 0.00 14.78 717.7
4 29 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 737.3
4 30 63.00 50.00 0.02 15.50 752.8
5 1 62.60 48.00 0.00 14.30 767.1
5 2 64.90 42.10 0.00 12.50 779.6
5 3 60.80 42.80 0.04 10.80 790.4
5 4 68.00 45.00 0.05 15.50 805.9
5 5 78.80 41.00 0.00 18.90 824.8
5 6 66.90 46.90 0.16 15.90 840.7
5 7 59.00 43.00 0.18 10.00 850.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 8 59.00 42.80 0.01 9.90 860.6
5 9 64.40 50.00 0.03 16.20 876.8
5 10 69.80 48.00 0.00 17.90 894.7
5 11 73.90 42.10 0.00 17.00 911.7
5 12 75.20 51.10 0.00 22.15 933.8
5 13 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 955.8 Peak female adult emergence
5 14 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 976.7
5 15 77.00 44.10 0.00 19.55 996.3
5 16 73.90 48.20 0.00 20.05 1016.3 Peak egg laying
5 17 62.60 50.00 0.01 15.30 1031.6
5 18 60.80 41.00 0.01 9.90 1041.5
5 19 57.90 37.00 0.01 7.21 1048.7
5 20 59.00 37.40 0.09 7.83 1056.6
5 21 63.00 39.00 0.00 10.25 1066.8
5 22 66.90 48.20 0.00 16.55 1083.4
5 23 60.80 51.10 0.06 14.95 1098.3
5 24 62.10 50.00 0.59 15.05 1113.4
5 25 60.80 51.80 0.01 15.30 1128.7
5 26 70.00 51.10 0.10 19.55 1148.2
5 27 62.60 50.00 0.27 15.30 1163.5
5 28 66.20 46.90 0.02 15.55 1179.1
5 29 79.00 44.60 0.00 20.80 1199.9
5 30 81.00 46.90 0.00 22.95 1222.8
5 31 86.00 48.20 0.00 26.10 1248.9
6 1 93.20 55.00 0.00 33.10 1282.0 Peak egg hatch
6 2 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 1312.0
6 3 75.20 54.00 0.00 23.60 1335.6
6 4 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 1356.5
6 5 63.00 48.20 0.03 14.60 1371.1
6 6 57.90 46.00 0.18 10.95 1382.1
6 7 64.90 48.00 0.13 15.45 1397.5
6 8 66.90 46.90 0.09 15.90 1413.4
6 9 66.00 42.80 0.00 13.40 1426.8
6 10 66.20 44.10 0.06 14.15 1441.0
6 11 64.90 51.80 0.23 17.35 1458.3
6 12 77.00 51.80 0.50 23.40 1481.7
6 13 64.90 60.10 0.89 21.50 1503.2
6 14 66.20 53.60 0.33 18.90 1522.1
6 15 68.00 50.00 0.04 18.00 1540.1
6 16 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 1560.8
6 17 82.40 48.00 0.00 24.20 1585.0
6 18 73.40 48.00 0.00 19.70 1604.7
6 19 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 1628.7
6 20 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 1659.2
6 21 91.90 57.00 0.00 33.45 1692.6
6 22 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 1720.6
6 23 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 1746.6
6 24 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 1775.8
6 25 93.20 59.00 0.00 35.10 1810.9
6 26 102.90 62.60 0.00 41.75 1852.6
6 27 108.00 66.20 0.00 46.10 1898.7
6 28 109.90 64.00 0.00 45.95 1944.7
6 29 82.40 62.10 0.00 31.25 1975.9
6 30 72.00 62.10 0.00 26.05 2002.0
7 1 71.60 62.10 0.00 25.85 2027.8
7 2 78.80 60.80 0.00 28.80 2056.6
7 3 79.00 60.10 0.00 28.55 2085.2 Peak in density large larvae
7 4 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2113.1
7 5 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 2140.1
7 6 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2168.9
7 7 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 2194.1
7 8 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 2217.5
7 9 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 2247.9
7 10 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2274.0
7 11 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2301.0
7 12 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2326.2
7 13 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2351.4
7 14 73.40 55.90 0.00 23.65 2375.1
7 15 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 2397.8
7 16 73.90 55.90 0.00 23.90 2421.7
7 17 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 2448.7
7 18 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 2474.7
7 19 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2500.8
7 20 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2526.2
7 21 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 2546.0
7 22 80.60 46.40 0.00 22.50 2568.5
7 23 82.90 48.20 0.00 24.55 2593.1
7 24 90.00 57.20 0.00 32.60 2625.7
7 25 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 2655.4
7 26 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2685.1
7 27 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2713.9
7 28 91.90 55.00 0.00 32.45 2746.3
7 29 96.80 55.40 0.00 35.10 2781.4
7 30 97.00 60.10 0.00 37.55 2819.0
7 31 73.90 62.10 0.00 27.00 2846.0
8 1 80.10 60.10 0.00 29.10 2875.1
8 2 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2906.6
8 3 81.00 57.20 0.00 28.10 2934.7
8 4 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 2967.2
8 5 75.90 61.00 0.00 27.45 2994.6
8 6 73.40 59.00 0.09 25.20 3019.8
8 7 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 3044.9
8 8 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 3068.1
8 9 84.00 51.80 0.00 26.90 3095.0
8 10 91.40 60.10 0.00 34.75 3129.8
8 11 100.40 63.00 0.00 40.70 3170.5
8 12 100.90 62.60 0.00 40.75 3211.2
8 13 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 3245.4
8 14 87.80 62.10 0.00 33.95 3279.4
8 15 84.20 62.60 0.00 32.40 3311.8
8 16 75.90 55.90 0.00 24.90 3336.7
8 17 71.60 55.40 0.06 22.50 3359.2
8 18 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 3383.2
8 19 75.20 57.20 0.02 25.20 3408.4
8 20 68.00 57.90 0.04 21.95 3430.4
8 21 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 3451.1
8 22 66.90 51.10 0.02 18.00 3469.1
8 23 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 3486.1
8 24 82.90 46.40 0.00 23.65 3509.8
8 25 75.00 55.40 0.00 24.20 3534.0
8 26 73.40 59.00 0.02 25.20 3559.2
8 27 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 3581.2
8 28 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 3607.3
8 29 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 3633.3
8 30 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 3651.8
8 31 64.90 46.40 0.00 14.65 3666.5
9 1 75.90 44.60 0.00 19.25 3685.7
9 2 84.00 46.00 0.00 24.00 3709.7
9 3 82.40 46.00 0.00 23.20 3732.9
9 4 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 3757.2
9 5 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 3785.0
9 6 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 3812.7
9 7 89.10 48.20 0.00 27.65 3840.4
9 8 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 3870.1
9 9 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 3897.3
9 10 66.90 57.20 0.00 21.05 3918.3
9 11 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 3941.8
9 12 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 3963.8
9 13 73.40 48.00 0.00 19.70 3983.5
9 14 80.60 46.00 0.00 22.30 4005.8
9 15 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 4023.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-7-21 | 851 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-13-21 | 956 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-16-21 | 1016 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-1-21 | 1282 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-3-21 | 2085 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1850532)
