Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 43.00 30.00 0.00 0.34 0.3 * START * 1 2 44.60 30.00 0.00 0.78 1.1 1 3 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 2.8 1 4 51.80 33.80 0.17 3.82 6.7 1 5 48.00 39.20 0.20 2.95 9.6 1 6 48.20 39.00 0.06 3.00 12.6 1 7 45.00 41.00 0.79 2.00 14.6 1 8 44.60 42.10 0.40 2.35 17.0 1 9 48.20 39.00 0.06 3.00 20.0 1 10 46.90 37.40 0.06 2.13 22.1 1 11 55.90 46.00 0.88 9.95 32.1 1 12 52.00 48.00 0.04 9.00 41.1 1 13 60.80 44.10 0.00 11.45 52.5 1 14 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 65.1 1 15 59.00 39.00 0.03 8.27 73.3 1 16 55.40 41.00 0.17 7.20 80.5 1 17 53.60 44.10 0.52 7.85 88.4 1 18 48.90 42.80 0.24 4.85 93.2 1 19 46.90 42.80 0.13 3.85 97.1 1 20 48.90 42.10 0.02 4.50 101.6 1 21 48.90 42.80 0.36 4.85 106.4 1 22 48.90 42.10 0.26 4.50 110.9 1 23 50.00 42.10 0.92 5.05 116.0 1 24 51.80 41.00 0.32 5.40 121.4 1 25 46.90 37.40 0.18 2.13 123.5 1 26 45.00 39.00 0.36 1.51 125.0 1 27 51.80 41.00 0.04 5.40 130.4 1 28 57.90 46.00 0.01 10.95 141.4 1 29 52.00 43.00 0.77 6.50 147.9 1 30 50.00 37.00 0.26 3.47 151.3 1 31 45.00 37.00 0.01 1.27 152.6 2 1 46.90 42.10 0.43 3.50 156.1 2 2 54.00 46.40 0.15 9.20 165.3 2 3 52.00 48.00 0.05 9.00 174.3 2 4 55.90 48.20 0.16 11.05 185.4 2 5 54.00 46.00 0.03 9.00 194.4 2 6 51.80 44.60 0.27 7.20 201.6 2 7 57.90 42.10 0.00 9.00 210.6 2 8 50.00 42.80 0.04 5.40 216.0 2 9 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 218.7 2 10 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 221.4 2 11 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 223.1 2 12 48.20 26.10 0.00 1.81 224.9 2 13 50.00 24.10 0.41 2.34 227.3 2 14 46.40 33.80 0.06 1.58 228.8 2 15 46.40 33.80 0.10 1.58 230.4 2 16 46.90 41.00 0.25 2.95 233.4 2 17 53.10 39.90 0.66 5.64 239.0 2 18 39.20 28.90 0.47 0.00 239.0 2 19 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 239.0 2 20 36.00 28.40 0.30 0.00 239.0 2 21 36.00 19.00 0.08 0.00 239.0 2 22 37.90 23.00 0.02 0.00 239.0 2 23 36.00 19.00 0.14 0.00 239.0 2 24 48.90 33.10 0.21 2.51 241.5 2 25 42.80 33.10 0.56 0.34 241.9 2 26 44.60 33.10 0.05 0.88 242.7 2 27 43.00 35.60 0.04 0.45 243.2 2 28 46.40 37.40 0.43 1.91 245.1 3 1 48.20 39.00 0.07 3.00 248.1 3 2 48.90 37.00 0.01 2.97 251.1 3 3 53.60 30.00 0.00 4.16 255.2 3 4 48.90 28.00 0.08 2.15 257.4 3 5 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 260.3 3 6 57.20 26.60 0.02 5.33 265.6 3 7 54.00 30.20 0.00 4.35 269.9 3 8 54.00 37.40 0.48 5.43 275.4 3 9 54.00 34.00 0.01 4.83 280.2 3 10 64.90 30.00 0.00 9.16 289.4 3 11 69.80 35.60 0.00 12.63 302.0 3 12 72.00 33.80 0.00 13.25 315.2 3 13 55.40 44.10 0.51 8.75 324.0 3 14 51.80 37.40 0.06 4.38 328.4 3 15 55.40 30.00 0.00 4.93 333.3 3 16 52.00 37.40 0.24 4.48 337.8 3 17 52.00 37.00 0.01 4.40 342.2 3 18 52.00 37.40 0.14 4.48 346.7 3 19 57.90 37.00 0.00 7.21 353.9 3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 361.0 3 21 53.60 30.20 0.56 4.19 365.2 3 22 50.00 39.00 0.55 3.87 369.0 3 23 46.90 37.00 3.17 2.08 371.1 3 24 41.00 35.60 0.22 0.00 371.1 3 25 51.80 37.00 0.03 4.31 375.4 3 26 48.20 37.40 0.01 2.72 378.1 3 27 51.80 44.60 0.28 7.20 385.3 3 28 54.00 41.00 0.00 6.50 391.8 3 29 60.80 39.00 0.00 9.16 401.0 3 30 55.90 42.80 0.00 8.35 409.4 3 31 63.00 42.80 0.00 11.90 421.3 4 1 46.40 37.40 0.28 1.91 423.2 4 2 54.00 34.00 0.09 4.83 428.0 4 3 51.80 28.40 0.05 3.29 431.3 4 4 55.40 42.80 0.08 8.10 439.4 4 5 54.00 46.40 0.23 9.20 448.6 4 6 68.00 51.80 0.04 18.90 467.5 4 7 64.00 46.40 0.98 14.20 481.7 4 8 53.60 46.40 0.21 9.00 490.7 4 9 66.90 39.00 0.01 12.18 502.9 4 10 62.60 48.00 0.16 14.30 517.2 4 11 55.90 42.80 0.44 8.35 525.5 4 12 54.00 41.00 0.19 6.50 532.0 4 13 53.60 44.60 0.38 8.10 540.1 4 14 57.20 48.20 0.36 11.70 551.8 4 15 50.00 44.10 0.41 6.05 557.9 4 16 48.90 42.10 0.25 4.50 562.4 4 17 54.00 42.10 0.03 7.05 569.4 4 18 60.80 39.00 0.04 9.16 578.6 4 19 66.20 35.10 0.00 10.76 589.3 4 20 63.00 37.40 0.00 9.78 599.1 4 21 60.80 41.00 0.01 9.90 609.0 4 22 63.00 37.40 0.00 9.78 618.8 4 23 78.80 35.60 0.00 17.02 635.8 4 24 82.90 39.00 0.00 20.13 655.9 4 25 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 680.2 4 26 73.00 44.60 0.00 17.80 698.0 4 27 55.90 48.90 4.62 11.40 709.4 4 28 59.00 46.00 0.04 11.50 720.9 4 29 57.90 44.10 0.09 10.00 730.9 4 30 59.00 46.00 0.12 11.50 742.4 5 1 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 755.9 5 2 73.40 46.00 0.00 18.70 774.6 5 3 71.60 46.00 0.00 17.80 792.4 5 4 66.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 810.4 5 5 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 830.2 5 6 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 848.2 5 7 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 871.6 peak pheromone trap catch 5 8 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 893.2 5 9 66.20 53.10 0.03 18.65 911.9 5 10 62.60 48.90 0.11 14.75 926.6 5 11 68.00 42.10 0.00 14.05 940.7 5 12 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 965.5 peak female adult emergence 5 13 89.60 48.00 0.00 27.80 993.3 5 14 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 1020.3 peak egg laying 5 15 68.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1040.8 5 16 64.90 53.60 0.00 18.25 1059.1 5 17 63.00 52.00 0.01 16.50 1075.6 5 18 66.20 51.10 0.00 17.65 1093.2 5 19 70.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 1114.0 5 20 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 1132.6 5 21 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1150.6 5 22 82.40 46.40 0.00 23.40 1174.0 5 23 75.20 54.00 0.00 23.60 1197.6 5 24 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 1219.6 5 25 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1239.0 5 26 64.40 46.00 0.00 14.20 1253.2 5 27 75.20 44.60 0.00 18.90 1272.1 peak egg hatch 5 28 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1288.3 5 29 64.90 44.60 0.00 13.75 1302.1 5 30 68.00 39.00 0.00 12.72 1314.8 5 31 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1329.2 6 1 69.80 44.10 0.00 15.95 1345.2 6 2 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1368.5 6 3 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1386.5 6 4 66.90 46.00 0.00 15.45 1401.9 6 5 71.60 42.10 0.00 15.85 1417.8 6 6 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 1436.4 6 7 66.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1456.6 6 8 63.00 53.10 0.31 17.05 1473.6 6 9 62.60 48.90 0.04 14.75 1488.4 6 10 60.80 48.20 0.37 13.50 1501.9 6 11 70.00 48.20 0.00 18.10 1520.0 6 12 75.20 42.80 0.00 18.00 1538.0 6 13 66.90 53.10 0.10 19.00 1557.0 6 14 64.40 51.80 0.01 17.10 1574.1 6 15 70.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1593.6 6 16 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 1619.5 6 17 90.00 53.10 0.00 30.55 1650.1 6 18 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 1676.9 6 19 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 1707.5 6 20 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 1737.4 6 21 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 1759.0 6 22 72.00 57.20 0.00 23.60 1782.6 6 23 75.20 57.20 0.01 25.20 1807.8 6 24 86.00 51.80 0.11 27.90 1835.7 6 25 64.90 53.10 0.19 18.00 1853.7 6 26 73.80 46.40 0.00 19.10 1872.8 Px 6 27 72.20 49.40 0.00 19.80 1892.6 Px Pn 6 28 70.40 51.80 0.00 20.10 1912.7 Px Pn 6 29 75.90 62.10 0.00 28.00 1940.7 6 30 72.00 59.00 0.01 24.50 1965.2 7 1 70.00 53.10 0.01 20.55 1985.8 7 2 69.80 53.10 0.01 20.45 2006.2 7 3 78.10 44.10 0.00 20.10 2026.3 7 4 75.90 53.60 0.00 23.75 2050.1 7 5 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2077.3 peak in density large larvae 7 6 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 2103.2 7 7 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2128.7 7 8 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2154.8 7 9 70.00 59.00 0.00 23.50 2178.3 7 10 75.90 59.00 0.06 26.45 2204.7 7 11 84.20 57.00 0.00 29.60 2234.3 7 12 93.20 57.20 0.00 34.20 2268.5 7 13 84.90 57.20 0.00 30.05 2298.6 7 14 91.40 53.10 0.00 31.25 2329.8
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2330QA 98% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 9 days ahead 2017 ok
 13 days behind 2016 ok
 12 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KKLS data
  7 15  89.80 53.40  0.00  30.60   2360.4  0.00_21.60%_precip.    
  7 16  81.60 50.00  0.00  24.80   2385.2  0.00_15.80%_precip.    
  7 17  77.70 48.40  0.00  22.05   2407.3  0.002_13.09%_precip.    
  7 18  69.10 46.10  0.03  16.60   2423.9  0.029_7.93%_precip.    
  7 19  78.70 45.60  0.00  21.15   2445.0  0.00_12.44%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KKLS 2006-2015
  7 20  77.70 55.10  0.02  25.40   2470.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  77.00 54.80  0.03  24.90   2495.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  77.60 56.20  0.00  25.90   2521.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  74.60 56.00  0.01  24.30   2545.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  78.10 53.80  0.05  24.95   2570.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  81.10 54.40  0.01  26.75   2597.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  79.10 55.00  0.00  26.05   2623.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  78.20 54.20  0.00  25.20   2648.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  79.60 54.10  0.00  25.85   2674.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  80.90 55.70  0.00  27.30   2701.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  79.90 55.60  0.00  26.75   2728.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  79.50 53.60  0.01  25.55   2753.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  79.90 53.70  0.00  25.80   2779.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  79.40 54.90  0.00  26.15   2805.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  76.90 55.20  0.00  25.05   2830.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  80.10 55.10  0.00  26.60   2857.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  81.60 55.00  0.00  27.30   2884.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  79.80 56.80  0.00  27.30   2912.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  77.30 56.70  0.00  26.00   2938.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  74.10 57.40  0.00  24.75   2962.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  74.30 55.30  0.01  23.80   2986.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  75.30 54.40  0.01  23.85   3010.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  78.30 54.80  0.00  25.55   3036.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  80.30 56.00  0.04  27.15   3063.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  78.40 55.50  0.05  25.95   3089.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  80.40 55.80  0.01  27.10   3116.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  81.40 56.00  0.01  27.70   3144.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  79.90 57.00  0.01  27.45   3171.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  84.20 55.60  0.01  28.90   3200.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  81.90 55.10  0.00  27.50   3227.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  80.20 56.10  0.06  27.15   3255.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  79.70 55.00  0.06  26.35   3281.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  76.50 54.60  0.05  24.55   3305.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  76.10 52.90  0.01  23.50   3329.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  77.30 52.30  0.01  23.80   3353.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  79.40 52.90  0.00  25.15   3378.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  78.70 52.80  0.04  24.75   3403.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  79.70 52.60  0.00  25.15   3428.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  79.80 52.90  0.02  25.35   3453.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  80.00 53.90  0.02  25.95   3479.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  77.00 55.70  0.04  25.35   3504.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  74.40 55.40  0.10  23.90   3528.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  73.10 51.90  0.04  21.50   3550.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  72.60 50.70  0.07  20.65   3570.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  76.00 50.30  0.01  22.15   3593.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  77.60 51.10  0.04  23.35   3616.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  77.00 51.30  0.02  23.15   3639.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  75.60 52.00  0.03  22.80   3662.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  75.70 52.60  0.21  23.15   3685.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  76.10 52.20  0.07  23.15   3708.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  78.00 51.70  0.01  23.85   3732.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  76.90 52.50  0.00  23.70   3756.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  76.30 52.40  0.00  23.35   3779.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  80.30 50.30  0.00  24.30   3803.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  82.70 51.00  0.00  25.85   3829.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  78.00 52.00  0.00  24.00   3853.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  73.80 53.20  0.00  22.50   3876.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  74.00 52.80  0.01  22.40   3898.6  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2330 QA 98% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 9 days ahead 2017 ok
 13 days behind 2016 ok
 12 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-7-18 872peak pheromone trap catch
 5-12-18 966peak female adult emergence
 5-14-18 1020peak egg laying
 5-27-18 1272peak egg hatch
 7-5-18 2077peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)