Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 36.00 33.10 0.58 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 37.40 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 37.40 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 36.00 10.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 34.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 36.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 39.20 28.00 0.20 0.00 0.0 1 9 39.20 33.10 0.35 0.00 0.0 1 10 43.00 32.00 3.02 0.37 0.4 1 11 34.00 28.00 0.16 0.00 0.4 1 12 36.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 13 30.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 14 35.10 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 15 32.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 16 33.80 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 17 37.00 28.00 0.96 0.00 0.4 1 18 48.20 35.60 0.73 2.48 2.8 1 19 50.00 39.90 0.06 4.11 7.0 1 20 46.40 33.10 0.03 1.53 8.5 1 21 46.40 35.60 0.07 1.72 10.2 1 22 51.80 35.10 0.09 4.00 14.2 1 23 52.00 28.90 0.00 3.41 17.6 1 24 39.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 17.6 1 25 45.00 37.00 0.00 1.27 18.9 1 26 48.20 33.00 0.00 2.22 21.1 1 27 48.90 30.00 0.00 2.27 23.4 1 28 46.40 35.10 0.00 1.68 25.0 1 29 45.00 35.10 0.00 1.13 26.2 1 30 47.00 41.00 0.00 3.00 29.2 1 31 48.20 30.00 0.00 2.01 31.2 2 1 45.00 26.10 0.00 0.80 32.0 2 2 46.40 30.00 0.05 1.36 33.3 2 3 37.40 33.80 0.18 0.00 33.3 2 4 52.00 35.10 0.52 4.09 37.4 2 5 45.00 32.00 1.68 0.97 38.4 2 6 41.00 32.00 0.16 0.00 38.4 2 7 41.00 32.00 0.05 0.00 38.4 2 8 42.10 35.60 1.06 0.20 38.6 2 9 60.80 39.00 0.60 9.16 47.8 2 10 50.00 37.00 0.05 3.47 51.2 2 11 51.80 35.10 0.01 4.00 55.2 2 12 51.10 30.00 0.00 3.14 58.4 2 13 59.00 26.60 0.00 6.09 64.5 2 14 51.80 30.00 0.30 3.42 67.9 2 15 51.80 41.00 1.06 5.40 73.3 2 16 52.00 46.00 0.71 8.00 81.3 2 17 55.90 42.10 0.00 8.00 89.3 2 18 48.00 42.80 0.25 4.40 93.7 2 19 46.40 42.10 0.48 3.25 96.9 2 20 48.20 42.10 0.35 4.15 101.1 2 21 52.00 35.10 0.12 4.09 105.2 2 22 45.00 33.10 0.01 1.02 106.2 2 23 46.00 33.10 0.01 1.38 107.6 2 24 44.10 33.80 0.10 0.75 108.3 2 25 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 110.2 2 26 43.00 35.10 0.27 0.44 110.7 2 27 42.80 35.60 0.30 0.39 111.1 2 28 46.90 35.60 0.02 1.93 113.0 3 1 50.00 41.00 0.10 4.50 117.5 3 2 48.90 42.10 0.06 4.50 122.0 3 3 52.00 41.00 0.52 5.50 127.5 3 4 46.90 35.60 0.15 1.93 129.4 3 5 46.40 35.60 0.26 1.72 131.1 3 6 44.60 33.10 0.26 0.88 132.0 3 7 46.40 39.00 0.43 2.15 134.2 3 8 44.60 41.00 0.45 1.80 136.0 3 9 55.40 42.10 2.84 7.75 143.7 3 10 57.00 41.00 0.04 8.00 151.7 3 11 54.00 37.90 0.29 5.54 157.3 3 12 62.60 44.10 0.00 12.35 169.6 3 13 54.00 50.00 0.96 11.00 180.6 3 14 59.00 51.80 1.00 14.40 195.0 3 15 57.20 46.00 0.88 10.60 205.6 3 16 55.40 37.00 0.06 6.01 211.6 3 17 48.90 33.80 0.54 2.58 214.2 3 18 53.60 35.10 0.31 4.81 219.0 3 19 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 224.0 3 20 53.10 35.10 0.12 4.59 228.6 3 21 60.80 44.10 1.27 11.45 240.0 3 22 55.40 44.10 0.01 8.75 248.8 3 23 55.90 42.80 0.37 8.35 257.1 3 24 54.00 45.00 0.09 8.50 265.6 3 25 50.00 42.80 0.10 5.40 271.0 3 26 50.00 42.80 0.51 5.40 276.4 3 27 54.00 44.60 0.14 8.30 284.7 3 28 55.90 44.60 0.35 9.25 294.0 3 29 57.90 44.60 0.25 10.25 304.2 3 30 55.90 44.10 0.16 9.00 313.2 3 31 60.80 42.10 0.00 10.45 323.7 4 1 59.00 48.00 0.02 12.50 336.2 4 2 55.90 39.00 0.00 6.75 342.9 4 3 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 349.7 4 4 58.80 39.70 0.00 8.39 358.1 Hx Hn 4 5 55.40 46.00 0.36 9.70 367.8 4 6 60.80 44.60 0.54 11.70 379.5 4 7 57.20 45.00 0.30 10.10 389.6 4 8 52.00 42.10 0.11 6.05 395.6 4 9 57.20 41.00 0.17 8.10 403.7 4 10 55.90 42.10 0.04 8.00 411.7 4 11 61.00 33.80 0.39 8.02 419.8 4 12 64.40 46.00 0.56 14.20 434.0 4 13 52.00 44.10 0.07 7.05 441.0 4 14 53.60 41.00 0.47 6.30 447.3 4 15 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 456.6 4 16 66.90 37.40 0.00 11.69 468.3 4 17 59.00 48.00 0.12 12.50 480.8 4 18 62.60 46.00 0.20 13.30 494.1 4 19 57.20 46.00 0.42 10.60 504.7 4 20 55.90 44.10 0.38 9.00 513.7 4 21 71.60 39.00 0.00 14.51 528.2 4 22 60.80 46.00 0.23 12.40 540.6 4 23 54.00 44.60 0.45 8.30 548.9 4 24 53.10 44.60 0.74 7.85 556.8 4 25 53.60 44.60 0.11 8.10 564.9 4 26 57.90 44.10 0.12 10.00 574.9 4 27 57.00 41.00 0.11 8.00 582.9 4 28 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 591.9 4 29 63.00 37.40 0.36 9.78 601.7 4 30 57.90 41.00 0.59 8.45 610.1 5 1 53.60 37.40 0.01 5.24 615.3 5 2 61.00 48.20 0.11 13.60 628.9 5 3 82.40 57.00 0.01 28.70 657.6 5 4 78.80 55.00 0.11 25.90 683.5 5 5 57.90 46.40 0.33 11.15 694.7 5 6 59.00 37.40 0.01 7.83 702.5 5 7 64.90 37.40 0.00 10.71 713.2 5 8 71.60 39.20 0.00 14.58 727.8 5 9 73.90 41.00 0.00 16.45 744.3 5 10 72.00 44.60 0.06 17.30 761.6 5 11 57.90 51.10 1.92 13.50 775.1 5 12 57.20 45.00 0.05 10.10 785.2 5 13 54.00 46.00 0.27 9.00 794.2 5 14 60.80 43.00 0.05 10.90 805.1 5 15 55.90 41.00 0.68 7.45 812.5 5 16 53.10 46.00 0.25 8.55 821.1 5 17 57.20 48.00 0.03 11.60 832.7 5 18 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 848.0 5 19 73.90 51.10 0.00 21.50 869.5 peak pheromone trap catch 5 20 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 892.0 5 21 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 918.6 5 22 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 950.3 peak female adult emergence 5 23 75.20 48.90 0.00 21.05 971.4 5 24 63.00 46.00 0.00 13.50 984.9 5 25 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 1003.1 peak egg laying 5 26 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 1027.4 5 27 86.00 48.20 0.00 26.10 1053.5 5 28 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 1076.0 5 29 69.80 53.10 0.00 20.45 1096.5 5 30 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1111.8 5 31 73.90 50.00 0.04 20.95 1132.7 6 1 64.90 53.60 0.44 18.25 1151.0 6 2 75.00 53.60 0.00 23.30 1174.3 6 3 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1193.2 6 4 64.90 46.90 0.00 14.90 1208.1 6 5 77.00 42.10 0.00 18.55 1226.6 6 6 84.20 48.00 0.00 25.10 1251.7 6 7 75.90 53.10 0.09 23.50 1275.2 peak egg hatch 6 8 61.00 51.10 0.14 15.05 1290.3 6 9 63.00 48.00 0.55 14.50 1304.8 6 10 63.00 46.40 0.01 13.70 1318.5 6 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1336.5 6 12 61.00 48.20 0.10 13.60 1350.1 6 13 64.40 50.00 0.03 16.20 1366.3 6 14 63.00 46.00 0.04 13.50 1379.8 6 15 61.00 53.10 0.50 16.05 1395.8 6 16 61.00 55.40 0.06 17.20 1413.0 6 17 69.80 53.10 0.04 20.45 1433.5 6 18 78.80 55.40 0.29 26.10 1459.6 6 19 68.00 60.80 0.00 23.40 1483.0 6 20 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 1505.2 6 21 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1522.3 6 22 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1546.6 6 23 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 1575.2 6 24 95.00 55.00 0.00 34.00 1609.2 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KKLS data
  6 25  91.60 50.30  0.00  29.95   1639.1  0.00_20.95%_precip.    
  6 26  71.00 47.50  0.00  18.25   1657.4  0.00_9.38%_precip.    
  6 27  69.40 46.10  0.01  16.75   1674.1  0.007_8.08%_precip.    
  6 28  65.50 46.10  0.00  14.80   1688.9  0.004_6.19%_precip.    
  6 29  71.80 47.00  0.01  18.40   1707.3  0.005_9.58%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KKLS 2006-2015
  6 30  75.70 52.70  0.02  23.20   1730.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  78.70 52.60  0.01  24.65   1755.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  80.70 53.40  0.03  26.05   1781.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  79.00 54.90  0.02  25.95   1807.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  76.50 52.60  0.00  23.55   1830.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  77.60 53.00  0.01  24.30   1855.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  76.20 53.50  0.01  23.85   1878.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  77.40 54.10  0.00  24.75   1903.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  79.40 54.40  0.00  25.90   1929.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  81.20 54.90  0.00  27.05   1956.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  81.00 54.80  0.00  26.90   1983.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  78.20 53.80  0.00  25.00   2008.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  78.00 55.10  0.01  25.55   2034.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  75.20 55.50  0.04  24.35   2058.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  76.10 54.30  0.02  24.20   2082.6  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 15  79.70 54.70  0.01  26.20   2108.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  79.60 54.50  0.03  26.05   2134.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  78.60 54.60  0.04  25.60   2160.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  76.30 54.70  0.04  24.50   2184.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  76.70 54.90  0.02  24.80   2209.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  77.70 55.10  0.02  25.40   2235.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  77.00 54.80  0.03  24.90   2260.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  77.60 56.20  0.00  25.90   2285.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  74.60 56.00  0.01  24.30   2310.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  78.10 53.80  0.05  24.95   2335.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  81.10 54.40  0.01  26.75   2361.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  79.10 55.00  0.00  26.05   2388.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  78.20 54.20  0.00  25.20   2413.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  79.60 54.10  0.00  25.85   2439.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  80.90 55.70  0.00  27.30   2466.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  79.90 55.60  0.00  26.75   2493.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  79.50 53.60  0.01  25.55   2518.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  79.90 53.70  0.00  25.80   2544.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  79.40 54.90  0.00  26.15   2570.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  76.90 55.20  0.00  25.05   2595.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  80.10 55.10  0.00  26.60   2622.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  81.60 55.00  0.00  27.30   2649.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  79.80 56.80  0.00  27.30   2676.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  77.30 56.70  0.00  26.00   2702.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  74.10 57.40  0.00  24.75   2727.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  74.30 55.30  0.01  23.80   2751.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  75.30 54.40  0.01  23.85   2775.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  78.30 54.80  0.00  25.55   2800.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  80.30 56.00  0.04  27.15   2827.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  78.40 55.50  0.05  25.95   2853.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  80.40 55.80  0.01  27.10   2881.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  81.40 56.00  0.01  27.70   2908.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  79.90 57.00  0.01  27.45   2936.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  84.20 55.60  0.01  28.90   2965.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  81.90 55.10  0.00  27.50   2992.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  80.20 56.10  0.06  27.15   3019.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  79.70 55.00  0.06  26.35   3046.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  76.50 54.60  0.05  24.55   3070.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  76.10 52.90  0.01  23.50   3094.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  77.30 52.30  0.01  23.80   3117.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  79.40 52.90  0.00  25.15   3143.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  78.70 52.80  0.04  24.75   3167.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  79.70 52.60  0.00  25.15   3192.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  79.80 52.90  0.02  25.35   3218.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  80.00 53.90  0.02  25.95   3244.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  77.00 55.70  0.04  25.35   3269.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  74.40 55.40  0.10  23.90   3293.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  73.10 51.90  0.04  21.50   3315.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  72.60 50.70  0.07  20.65   3335.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  76.00 50.30  0.01  22.15   3357.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  77.60 51.10  0.04  23.35   3381.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  77.00 51.30  0.02  23.15   3404.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  75.60 52.00  0.03  22.80   3427.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  75.70 52.60  0.21  23.15   3450.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  76.10 52.20  0.07  23.15   3473.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  78.00 51.70  0.01  23.85   3497.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  76.90 52.50  0.00  23.70   3520.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  76.30 52.40  0.00  23.35   3544.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  80.30 50.30  0.00  24.30   3568.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  82.70 51.00  0.00  25.85   3594.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  78.00 52.00  0.00  24.00   3618.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  73.80 53.20  0.00  22.50   3640.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  74.00 52.80  0.01  22.40   3663.3  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA
QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 26 days behind 2016 ok
 23 days behind 2015 ok
 same day 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-19-17 869peak pheromone trap catch
 5-22-17 950peak female adult emergence
 5-25-17 1003peak egg laying
 6-7-17 1275peak egg hatch
 7-14-17 2083peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)