Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 36.00 33.10 0.58 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 37.40 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 37.40 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 36.00 10.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 34.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 36.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 39.20 28.00 0.20 0.00 0.0 1 9 39.20 33.10 0.35 0.00 0.0 1 10 43.00 32.00 3.02 0.37 0.4 1 11 34.00 28.00 0.16 0.00 0.4 1 12 36.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 13 30.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 14 35.10 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 15 32.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 16 33.80 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.4 1 17 37.00 28.00 0.96 0.00 0.4 1 18 48.20 35.60 0.73 2.48 2.8 1 19 50.00 39.90 0.06 4.11 7.0 1 20 46.40 33.10 0.03 1.53 8.5 1 21 46.40 35.60 0.07 1.72 10.2 1 22 51.80 35.10 0.09 4.00 14.2 1 23 52.00 28.90 0.00 3.41 17.6 1 24 39.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 17.6 1 25 45.00 37.00 0.00 1.27 18.9 1 26 48.20 33.00 0.00 2.22 21.1 1 27 48.90 30.00 0.00 2.27 23.4 1 28 46.40 35.10 0.00 1.68 25.0 1 29 45.00 35.10 0.00 1.13 26.2 1 30 47.00 41.00 0.00 3.00 29.2 1 31 48.20 30.00 0.00 2.01 31.2 2 1 45.00 26.10 0.00 0.80 32.0 2 2 46.40 30.00 0.05 1.36 33.3 2 3 37.40 33.80 0.18 0.00 33.3 2 4 52.00 35.10 0.52 4.09 37.4 2 5 45.00 32.00 1.68 0.97 38.4 2 6 41.00 32.00 0.16 0.00 38.4 2 7 41.00 32.00 0.05 0.00 38.4 2 8 42.10 35.60 1.06 0.20 38.6 2 9 60.80 39.00 0.60 9.16 47.8 2 10 50.00 37.00 0.05 3.47 51.2 2 11 51.80 35.10 0.01 4.00 55.2 2 12 51.10 30.00 0.00 3.14 58.4 2 13 59.00 26.60 0.00 6.09 64.5 2 14 51.80 30.00 0.30 3.42 67.9 2 15 51.80 41.00 1.06 5.40 73.3 2 16 52.00 46.00 0.71 8.00 81.3 2 17 55.90 42.10 0.00 8.00 89.3 2 18 48.00 42.80 0.25 4.40 93.7 2 19 46.40 42.10 0.48 3.25 96.9 2 20 48.20 42.10 0.35 4.15 101.1 2 21 52.00 35.10 0.12 4.09 105.2 2 22 45.00 33.10 0.01 1.02 106.2 2 23 46.00 33.10 0.01 1.38 107.6 2 24 44.10 33.80 0.10 0.75 108.3 2 25 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 110.2 2 26 43.00 35.10 0.27 0.44 110.7 2 27 42.80 35.60 0.30 0.39 111.1 2 28 46.90 35.60 0.02 1.93 113.0 3 1 50.00 41.00 0.10 4.50 117.5 3 2 48.90 42.10 0.06 4.50 122.0 3 3 52.00 41.00 0.52 5.50 127.5 3 4 46.90 35.60 0.15 1.93 129.4 3 5 46.40 35.60 0.26 1.72 131.1 3 6 44.60 33.10 0.26 0.88 132.0 3 7 46.40 39.00 0.43 2.15 134.2 3 8 44.60 41.00 0.45 1.80 136.0 3 9 55.40 42.10 2.84 7.75 143.7 3 10 57.00 41.00 0.04 8.00 151.7 3 11 54.00 37.90 0.29 5.54 157.3 3 12 62.60 44.10 0.00 12.35 169.6 3 13 54.00 50.00 0.96 11.00 180.6 3 14 59.00 51.80 1.00 14.40 195.0 3 15 57.20 46.00 0.88 10.60 205.6 3 16 55.40 37.00 0.06 6.01 211.6 3 17 48.90 33.80 0.54 2.58 214.2 3 18 53.60 35.10 0.31 4.81 219.0 3 19 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 224.0 3 20 53.10 35.10 0.12 4.59 228.6 3 21 60.80 44.10 1.27 11.45 240.0 3 22 55.40 44.10 0.01 8.75 248.8 3 23 55.90 42.80 0.37 8.35 257.1 3 24 54.00 45.00 0.09 8.50 265.6 3 25 50.00 42.80 0.10 5.40 271.0 3 26 50.00 42.80 0.51 5.40 276.4 3 27 54.00 44.60 0.14 8.30 284.7 3 28 55.90 44.60 0.35 9.25 294.0 3 29 57.90 44.60 0.25 10.25 304.2 3 30 55.90 44.10 0.16 9.00 313.2 3 31 60.80 42.10 0.00 10.45 323.7 4 1 59.00 48.00 0.02 12.50 336.2 4 2 55.90 39.00 0.00 6.75 342.9 4 3 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 349.7 4 4 58.80 39.70 0.00 8.39 358.1 Hx Hn 4 5 55.40 46.00 0.36 9.70 367.8 4 6 60.80 44.60 0.54 11.70 379.5 4 7 57.20 45.00 0.30 10.10 389.6 4 8 52.00 42.10 0.11 6.05 395.6 4 9 57.20 41.00 0.17 8.10 403.7 4 10 55.90 42.10 0.04 8.00 411.7 4 11 61.00 33.80 0.39 8.02 419.8 4 12 64.40 46.00 0.56 14.20 434.0 4 13 52.00 44.10 0.07 7.05 441.0 4 14 53.60 41.00 0.47 6.30 447.3 4 15 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 456.6 4 16 66.90 37.40 0.00 11.69 468.3 4 17 59.00 48.00 0.12 12.50 480.8 4 18 62.60 46.00 0.20 13.30 494.1 4 19 57.20 46.00 0.42 10.60 504.7 4 20 55.90 44.10 0.38 9.00 513.7 4 21 71.60 39.00 0.00 14.51 528.2 4 22 60.80 46.00 0.23 12.40 540.6 4 23 54.00 44.60 0.45 8.30 548.9 4 24 53.10 44.60 0.74 7.85 556.8 4 25 53.60 44.60 0.81 8.10 564.9
DD accumulation on 4-25-17: 565QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 29 days behind 2016 ok
 37 days behind 2015 ok
 4 days behind 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KKLS data
  4 26  52.20 42.70  0.16   6.45    571.3  0.161_0.25%_precip.    
  4 27  47.30 40.60  0.23   2.99    574.3  0.234_0.00%_precip.    
  4 28  55.20 35.80  0.01   5.68    580.0  0.009_0.70%_precip.    
  4 29  55.60 35.00  0.33   5.72    585.7  0.328_0.76%_precip.    
  4 30  53.30 41.80  0.07   6.55    592.3  0.071_0.47%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KKLS 2006-2015
  5  1  63.10 40.10  0.06  10.68    602.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  2  65.50 41.70  0.06  12.60    615.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5  3  63.90 42.40  0.14  12.15    627.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5  4  62.50 42.70  0.10  11.60    639.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5  5  64.70 43.50  0.11  13.10    652.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5  6  63.90 44.00  0.06  12.95    665.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5  7  62.90 44.10  0.10  12.50    677.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5  8  65.60 43.20  0.08  13.40    691.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5  9  65.30 40.80  0.04  12.06    703.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 10  67.10 41.70  0.02  13.40    716.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 11  66.30 43.50  0.03  13.90    730.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 12  65.30 43.40  0.11  13.35    743.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 13  65.90 43.90  0.04  13.90    757.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 14  69.50 43.60  0.10  15.55    773.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 15  73.50 46.70  0.02  19.10    792.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 16  73.70 47.90  0.04  19.80    812.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 17  73.10 46.70  0.01  18.90    831.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 18  71.60 47.40  0.08  18.50    849.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 19  69.50 47.70  0.06  17.60    867.3  *hist_fcst*   peak pheromone trap catch
  5 20  67.50 47.20  0.10  16.35    883.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 21  65.10 46.90  0.13  15.00    898.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 22  63.70 47.40  0.16  14.55    913.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 23  62.70 47.40  0.21  14.05    927.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 24  62.60 47.00  0.18  13.80    941.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  66.50 47.00  0.11  15.75    956.8  *hist_fcst*   peak female adult emergence
  5 26  64.60 48.30  0.12  15.45    972.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  64.50 49.40  0.11  15.95    988.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  65.30 49.10  0.14  16.20   1004.4  *hist_fcst*   peak egg laying
  5 29  65.30 48.00  0.16  15.65   1020.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  69.50 47.30  0.03  17.40   1037.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  72.80 49.10  0.05  19.95   1057.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  70.10 51.20  0.05  19.65   1077.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  68.10 52.20  0.16  19.15   1096.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  67.70 49.00  0.13  17.35   1113.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  70.10 49.10  0.08  18.60   1132.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  70.90 49.00  0.10  18.95   1151.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  70.10 48.80  0.08  18.45   1169.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  68.80 50.60  0.10  18.70   1188.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  68.20 50.70  0.04  18.45   1206.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  69.70 50.30  0.07  19.00   1225.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  67.80 48.40  0.12  17.10   1242.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  66.70 49.20  0.03  16.95   1259.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  69.80 49.40  0.01  18.60   1278.3  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6 13  68.40 50.40  0.09  18.40   1296.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  66.60 49.90  0.01  17.25   1314.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  66.70 49.30  0.03  17.00   1331.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  69.80 49.00  0.03  18.40   1349.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  69.10 50.50  0.02  18.80   1368.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  68.60 50.40  0.02  18.50   1386.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  68.10 50.30  0.06  18.20   1404.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  69.70 49.20  0.04  18.45   1423.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  72.50 49.60  0.01  20.05   1443.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  73.90 52.00  0.00  21.95   1465.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  72.20 49.70  0.07  19.95   1485.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  72.60 50.60  0.10  20.60   1505.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  74.20 52.30  0.07  22.25   1528.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  74.90 52.60  0.03  22.75   1550.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  77.00 52.70  0.04  23.85   1574.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  77.90 54.50  0.03  25.20   1599.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  76.90 54.00  0.04  24.45   1624.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  75.70 52.70  0.02  23.20   1647.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  78.70 52.60  0.01  24.65   1672.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  80.70 53.40  0.03  26.05   1698.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  79.00 54.90  0.02  25.95   1724.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  76.50 52.60  0.00  23.55   1747.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  77.60 53.00  0.01  24.30   1772.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  76.20 53.50  0.01  23.85   1795.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  77.40 54.10  0.00  24.75   1820.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  79.40 54.40  0.00  25.90   1846.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  81.20 54.90  0.00  27.05   1873.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  81.00 54.80  0.00  26.90   1900.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  78.20 53.80  0.00  25.00   1925.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  78.00 55.10  0.01  25.55   1951.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  75.20 55.50  0.04  24.35   1975.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  76.10 54.30  0.02  24.20   1999.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  79.70 54.70  0.01  26.20   2025.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  79.60 54.50  0.03  26.05   2051.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  78.60 54.60  0.04  25.60   2077.5  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 18  76.30 54.70  0.04  24.50   2102.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  76.70 54.90  0.02  24.80   2126.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  77.70 55.10  0.02  25.40   2152.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  77.00 54.80  0.03  24.90   2177.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  77.60 56.20  0.00  25.90   2203.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  74.60 56.00  0.01  24.30   2227.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  78.10 53.80  0.05  24.95   2252.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  81.10 54.40  0.01  26.75   2279.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  79.10 55.00  0.00  26.05   2305.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  78.20 54.20  0.00  25.20   2330.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  79.60 54.10  0.00  25.85   2356.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  80.90 55.70  0.00  27.30   2383.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  79.90 55.60  0.00  26.75   2410.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  79.50 53.60  0.01  25.55   2435.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  79.90 53.70  0.00  25.80   2461.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  79.40 54.90  0.00  26.15   2487.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  76.90 55.20  0.00  25.05   2512.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  80.10 55.10  0.00  26.60   2539.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  81.60 55.00  0.00  27.30   2566.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  79.80 56.80  0.00  27.30   2593.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  77.30 56.70  0.00  26.00   2619.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  74.10 57.40  0.00  24.75   2644.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  74.30 55.30  0.01  23.80   2668.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  75.30 54.40  0.01  23.85   2692.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  78.30 54.80  0.00  25.55   2717.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  80.30 56.00  0.04  27.15   2745.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  78.40 55.50  0.05  25.95   2770.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  80.40 55.80  0.01  27.10   2798.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  81.40 56.00  0.01  27.70   2825.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  79.90 57.00  0.01  27.45   2853.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  84.20 55.60  0.01  28.90   2882.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  81.90 55.10  0.00  27.50   2909.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  80.20 56.10  0.06  27.15   2936.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  79.70 55.00  0.06  26.35   2963.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  76.50 54.60  0.05  24.55   2987.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  76.10 52.90  0.01  23.50   3011.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  77.30 52.30  0.01  23.80   3034.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  79.40 52.90  0.00  25.15   3060.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  78.70 52.80  0.04  24.75   3084.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  79.70 52.60  0.00  25.15   3110.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  79.80 52.90  0.02  25.35   3135.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  80.00 53.90  0.02  25.95   3161.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  77.00 55.70  0.04  25.35   3186.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  74.40 55.40  0.10  23.90   3210.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  73.10 51.90  0.04  21.50   3232.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  72.60 50.70  0.07  20.65   3252.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  76.00 50.30  0.01  22.15   3274.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  77.60 51.10  0.04  23.35   3298.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  77.00 51.30  0.02  23.15   3321.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  75.60 52.00  0.03  22.80   3344.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  75.70 52.60  0.21  23.15   3367.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  76.10 52.20  0.07  23.15   3390.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  78.00 51.70  0.01  23.85   3414.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  76.90 52.50  0.00  23.70   3438.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  76.30 52.40  0.00  23.35   3461.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  80.30 50.30  0.00  24.30   3485.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  82.70 51.00  0.00  25.85   3511.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  78.00 52.00  0.00  24.00   3535.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  73.80 53.20  0.00  22.50   3558.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  74.00 52.80  0.01  22.40   3580.4  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA
QA 100% ok  - check weather data/Consider using a different Station!DD accumulation on 4-14-17: 1880 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-15-17: 1182 QA 100% ok  - check weather data/Consider using a different Station!DD accumulation on 4-25-17: 565 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 29 days behind 2016 ok
 37 days behind 2015 ok
 4 days behind 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-19-17 867peak pheromone trap catch
 5-25-17 957peak female adult emergence
 5-28-17 1004peak egg laying
 6-12-17 1278peak egg hatch
 7-17-17 2077peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)