Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight 1988


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight 1988 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2023 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 46.40 37.40 0.02 1.91 1.9 * START * 1 2 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 4.1 1 3 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 5.1 1 4 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 9.1 1 5 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 22.6 1 6 55.40 46.40 0.02 9.90 32.5 1 7 50.00 44.60 0.12 6.30 38.8 1 8 50.00 39.20 0.04 3.92 42.8 1 9 55.40 42.80 0.04 8.10 50.9 1 10 51.80 42.80 0.01 6.30 57.2 1 11 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 64.4 1 12 55.40 46.40 0.08 9.90 74.3 1 13 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 86.0 1 14 55.40 48.20 0.04 10.80 96.8 1 15 51.80 41.00 0.12 5.40 102.2 1 16 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 108.5 1 17 48.20 42.80 0.06 4.50 113.0 1 18 50.00 35.60 0.17 3.26 116.2 1 19 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 117.1 1 20 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 118.0 1 21 44.60 30.20 0.06 0.78 118.8 1 22 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 119.0 1 23 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 120.0 1 24 42.80 37.40 0.08 0.46 120.4 1 25 46.40 41.00 0.01 2.70 123.1 1 26 44.60 39.20 0.15 1.36 124.5 1 27 44.60 39.20 0.44 1.36 125.8 1 28 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 128.1 1 29 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 128.1 1 30 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 128.1 1 31 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 128.1 2 1 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 129.8 2 2 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 132.5 2 3 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 135.3 2 4 55.40 46.40 0.04 9.90 145.2 2 5 46.40 42.80 0.11 3.60 148.8 2 6 48.20 42.80 0.01 4.50 153.3 2 7 50.00 42.80 0.12 5.40 158.7 2 8 48.20 37.40 0.08 2.72 161.4 2 9 51.80 41.00 0.05 5.40 166.8 2 10 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 171.6 2 11 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 173.0 2 12 48.20 35.60 0.05 2.48 175.5 2 13 46.40 37.40 0.09 1.91 177.4 2 14 44.60 28.40 0.03 0.74 178.2 2 15 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 178.9 2 16 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 180.6 2 17 46.40 39.20 0.15 2.19 182.8 2 18 46.40 35.60 0.12 1.72 184.5 2 19 46.40 37.40 0.12 1.91 186.4 2 20 48.20 44.60 0.83 5.40 191.8 2 21 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 193.6 2 22 35.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 193.6 2 23 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 193.6 2 24 33.80 19.40 0.00 0.00 193.6 2 25 39.20 24.80 0.01 0.00 193.6 2 26 44.60 33.80 0.03 0.92 194.5 2 27 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 194.5 2 28 39.20 30.20 0.12 0.00 194.5 3 1 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 194.8 3 2 50.00 37.40 0.14 3.54 198.3 3 3 44.60 37.40 0.01 1.15 199.5 3 4 46.40 37.40 0.08 1.91 201.4 3 5 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 203.7 3 6 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 206.9 3 7 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 211.8 3 8 50.00 35.60 0.01 3.26 215.1 3 9 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 219.2 3 10 48.20 39.20 0.20 3.05 222.2 3 11 50.00 39.20 0.05 3.92 226.1 3 12 50.00 37.40 0.05 3.54 229.7 3 13 50.00 35.60 0.32 3.26 232.9 3 14 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 237.3 3 15 50.00 33.80 0.10 3.04 240.4 3 16 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 244.2 3 17 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 251.6 3 18 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 262.4 3 19 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 272.3 3 20 53.60 44.60 0.23 8.10 280.4 3 21 53.60 41.00 0.13 6.30 286.7 3 22 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 294.2 3 23 51.80 37.40 0.30 4.38 298.5 3 24 42.80 37.40 0.30 0.46 299.0 3 25 46.40 35.60 0.07 1.72 300.7 3 26 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 303.8 3 27 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 308.4 3 28 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 318.0 3 29 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 325.1 3 30 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 329.4 3 31 48.20 42.80 0.04 4.50 333.9 4 1 50.00 37.40 0.07 3.54 337.5 4 2 46.40 35.60 0.02 1.72 339.2 4 3 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 341.7 4 4 50.00 35.60 0.02 3.26 344.9 4 5 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 349.3 4 6 57.20 44.60 0.04 9.90 359.2 4 7 55.40 46.40 0.05 9.90 369.1 4 8 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 378.1 4 9 59.00 46.40 0.08 11.70 389.8 4 10 46.40 42.80 0.14 3.60 393.4 4 11 50.00 39.20 0.06 3.92 397.3 4 12 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 401.2 4 13 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 406.4 4 14 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 411.8 4 15 51.80 41.00 0.02 5.40 417.2 4 16 53.60 37.40 0.28 5.24 422.5 4 17 53.60 37.40 0.05 5.24 427.7 4 18 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 431.6 4 19 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 437.9 4 20 50.00 39.20 0.04 3.92 441.8 4 21 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 448.1 4 22 60.80 46.40 0.13 12.60 460.7 4 23 53.60 46.40 0.20 9.00 469.7 4 24 57.20 42.80 0.13 9.00 478.7 4 25 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 487.7 4 26 59.00 41.00 0.01 9.00 496.7 4 27 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 506.0 4 28 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 520.4 4 29 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 539.3 4 30 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 550.1 5 1 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 560.9 5 2 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 579.8 5 3 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 597.8 5 4 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 609.5 5 5 51.80 48.20 0.34 9.00 618.5 5 6 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 630.2 5 7 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 643.7 5 8 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 653.6 5 9 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 666.2 5 10 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 680.6 5 11 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 695.9 5 12 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 715.7 5 13 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 738.2 5 14 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 764.3 5 15 82.40 62.60 0.00 31.50 795.8 5 16 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 816.5 5 17 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 838.1 5 18 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 857.9 Peak pheromone trap catch 5 19 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 877.7 5 20 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 897.5 5 21 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 911.0 5 22 57.20 48.20 0.02 11.70 922.7 5 23 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 936.2 5 24 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 951.5 Peak female adult emergence 5 25 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 970.4 5 26 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 993.8 5 27 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1011.8 Peak egg laying 5 28 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1028.0 5 29 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1042.4 5 30 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 1055.0 5 31 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1067.6 6 1 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1081.1 6 2 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 1095.5 6 3 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1110.8 6 4 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1125.2 6 5 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1138.7 6 6 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 1156.7 6 7 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 1182.8 6 8 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1203.5 6 9 55.40 51.80 0.18 12.60 1216.1 6 10 60.80 51.80 0.21 15.30 1231.4 6 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1249.4 6 12 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1271.9 Peak egg hatch 6 13 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1288.1 6 14 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1306.1 6 15 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 1324.1 6 16 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1343.9 6 17 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 1357.4 6 18 59.00 46.40 0.27 11.70 1369.1 6 19 57.20 44.60 0.03 9.90 1379.0 6 20 60.80 50.00 0.06 14.40 1393.4 6 21 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1410.5 6 22 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1430.3 6 23 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1452.8 6 24 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1469.0 6 25 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1490.6 6 26 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1511.3 6 27 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1531.1 6 28 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1551.8 6 29 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1574.3 6 30 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1596.8 7 1 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1617.5 7 2 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1637.3 7 3 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1658.0 7 4 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1682.3 7 5 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1710.2 7 6 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1737.2 7 7 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1756.1 7 8 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1775.9 7 9 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1795.7 7 10 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1815.5 7 11 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1837.1 7 12 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1856.9 7 13 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1878.5 7 14 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 1903.7 7 15 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1930.7 7 16 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1956.8 7 17 71.60 55.40 0.01 22.50 1979.3 7 18 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2001.8 7 19 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2027.9 7 20 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2054.9 7 21 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2079.2 Peak in density large larvae 7 22 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2104.4 7 23 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2128.7 7 24 71.60 55.40 0.66 22.50 2151.2 7 25 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2172.8 7 26 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 2191.7 7 27 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2216.0 7 28 78.00 52.50 0.00 24.25 2240.2 Hx Hn 7 29 79.20 51.70 0.00 24.45 2264.7 Hx Hn 7 30 81.50 51.80 0.00 25.65 2290.3 Hx Hn 7 31 80.60 53.20 0.00 25.90 2316.2 Hx Hn 8 1 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2340.5 8 2 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2364.8 8 3 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2389.1 8 4 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2415.2 8 5 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2441.3 8 6 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 2469.2 8 7 75.20 57.20 0.02 25.20 2494.4 8 8 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2519.6 8 9 69.80 57.20 0.02 22.50 2542.1 8 10 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2566.4 8 11 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2590.7 8 12 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2616.8 8 13 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2644.7 8 14 86.00 64.40 0.00 34.20 2678.9 8 15 86.00 64.40 0.00 34.20 2713.1 8 16 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 2745.5 8 17 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2775.2 8 18 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2797.7 8 19 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 2814.8 8 20 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 2833.7 8 21 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 2852.6 8 22 71.00 48.20 0.00 18.60 2871.2 Vx 8 23 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2893.7 8 24 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 2913.5 8 25 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2937.8 8 26 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2963.0 8 27 77.20 58.90 0.00 27.05 2990.1 Vx Vn 8 28 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 3009.0 8 29 60.50 58.30 0.00 18.40 3027.4 Vx Vn 8 30 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3050.8 8 31 71.60 55.40 0.06 22.50 3073.3 9 1 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3094.9 9 2 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3121.9 9 3 68.00 57.20 0.23 21.60 3143.5 9 4 68.00 55.40 0.02 20.70 3164.2 9 5 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 3182.2 9 6 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 3201.1 9 7 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 3220.9 9 8 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 3238.9 9 9 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 3257.8 9 10 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3282.1 9 11 73.50 50.90 0.00 21.20 3303.3 Hx Hn 9 12 68.00 66.20 0.00 26.10 3329.4 Vn 9 13 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3350.1 9 14 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 3369.0 9 15 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 3392.4 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988
Location: 2023 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME
DateDDsEvent
 5-18-23 858Peak pheromone trap catch
 5-24-23 951Peak female adult emergence
 5-27-23 1012Peak egg laying
 6-12-23 1272Peak egg hatch
 7-21-23 2079Peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988