Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather dataorange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.40 37.40 0.02 1.91 1.9 * START *
1 2 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 4.1
1 3 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 5.1
1 4 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 9.1
1 5 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 22.6
1 6 55.40 46.40 0.02 9.90 32.5
1 7 50.00 44.60 0.12 6.30 38.8
1 8 50.00 39.20 0.04 3.92 42.8
1 9 55.40 42.80 0.04 8.10 50.9
1 10 51.80 42.80 0.01 6.30 57.2
1 11 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 64.4
1 12 55.40 46.40 0.08 9.90 74.3
1 13 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 86.0
1 14 55.40 48.20 0.04 10.80 96.8
1 15 51.80 41.00 0.12 5.40 102.2
1 16 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 108.5
1 17 48.20 42.80 0.06 4.50 113.0
1 18 50.00 35.60 0.17 3.26 116.2
1 19 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 117.1
1 20 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 118.0
1 21 44.60 30.20 0.06 0.78 118.8
1 22 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 119.0
1 23 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 120.0
1 24 42.80 37.40 0.08 0.46 120.4
1 25 46.40 41.00 0.01 2.70 123.1
1 26 44.60 39.20 0.15 1.36 124.5
1 27 44.60 39.20 0.44 1.36 125.8
1 28 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 128.1
1 29 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 128.1
1 30 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 128.1
1 31 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 128.1
2 1 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 129.8
2 2 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 132.5
2 3 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 135.3
2 4 55.40 46.40 0.04 9.90 145.2
2 5 46.40 42.80 0.11 3.60 148.8
2 6 48.20 42.80 0.01 4.50 153.3
2 7 50.00 42.80 0.12 5.40 158.7
2 8 48.20 37.40 0.08 2.72 161.4
2 9 51.80 41.00 0.05 5.40 166.8
2 10 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 171.6
2 11 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 173.0
2 12 48.20 35.60 0.05 2.48 175.5
2 13 46.40 37.40 0.09 1.91 177.4
2 14 44.60 28.40 0.03 0.74 178.2
2 15 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 178.9
2 16 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 180.6
2 17 46.40 39.20 0.15 2.19 182.8
2 18 46.40 35.60 0.12 1.72 184.5
2 19 46.40 37.40 0.12 1.91 186.4
2 20 48.20 44.60 0.83 5.40 191.8
2 21 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 193.6
2 22 35.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 193.6
2 23 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 193.6
2 24 33.80 19.40 0.00 0.00 193.6
2 25 39.20 24.80 0.01 0.00 193.6
2 26 44.60 33.80 0.03 0.92 194.5
2 27 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 194.5
2 28 39.20 30.20 0.12 0.00 194.5
3 1 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 194.8
3 2 50.00 37.40 0.14 3.54 198.3
3 3 44.60 37.40 0.01 1.15 199.5
3 4 46.40 37.40 0.08 1.91 201.4
3 5 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 203.7
3 6 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 206.9
3 7 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 211.8
3 8 50.00 35.60 0.01 3.26 215.1
3 9 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 219.2
3 10 48.20 39.20 0.20 3.05 222.2
3 11 50.00 39.20 0.05 3.92 226.1
3 12 50.00 37.40 0.05 3.54 229.7
3 13 50.00 35.60 0.32 3.26 232.9
3 14 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 237.3
3 15 50.00 33.80 0.10 3.04 240.4
3 16 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 244.2
3 17 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 251.6
3 18 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 262.4
3 19 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 272.3
3 20 53.60 44.60 0.23 8.10 280.4
3 21 53.60 41.00 0.13 6.30 286.7
3 22 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 294.2
3 23 51.80 37.40 0.30 4.38 298.5
3 24 42.80 37.40 0.30 0.46 299.0
3 25 46.40 35.60 0.07 1.72 300.7
3 26 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 303.8
3 27 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 308.4
3 28 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 318.0
3 29 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 325.1
3 30 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 329.4
3 31 48.20 42.80 0.04 4.50 333.9
4 1 50.00 37.40 0.07 3.54 337.5
4 2 46.40 35.60 0.02 1.72 339.2
4 3 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 341.7
4 4 50.00 35.60 0.02 3.26 344.9
4 5 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 349.3
4 6 57.20 44.60 0.04 9.90 359.2
4 7 55.40 46.40 0.05 9.90 369.1
4 8 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 378.1
4 9 59.00 46.40 0.08 11.70 389.8
4 10 46.40 42.80 0.14 3.60 393.4
4 11 50.00 39.20 0.06 3.92 397.3
4 12 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 401.2
4 13 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 406.4
4 14 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 411.8
4 15 51.80 41.00 0.02 5.40 417.2
4 16 53.60 37.40 0.28 5.24 422.5
4 17 53.60 37.40 0.05 5.24 427.7
4 18 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 431.6
4 19 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 437.9
4 20 50.00 39.20 0.04 3.92 441.8
4 21 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 448.1
4 22 60.80 46.40 0.13 12.60 460.7
4 23 53.60 46.40 0.20 9.00 469.7
4 24 57.20 42.80 0.13 9.00 478.7
4 25 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 487.7
4 26 59.00 41.00 0.01 9.00 496.7
4 27 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 506.0
4 28 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 520.4
4 29 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 539.3
4 30 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 550.1
5 1 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 560.9
5 2 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 579.8
5 3 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 597.8
5 4 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 609.5
5 5 51.80 48.20 0.34 9.00 618.5
5 6 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 630.2
5 7 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 643.7
5 8 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 653.6
5 9 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 666.2
5 10 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 680.6
5 11 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 695.9
5 12 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 715.7
5 13 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 738.2
5 14 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 764.3
5 15 82.40 62.60 0.00 31.50 795.8
5 16 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 816.5
5 17 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 838.1
5 18 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 857.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 19 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 877.7
5 20 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 897.5
5 21 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 911.0
5 22 57.20 48.20 0.02 11.70 922.7
5 23 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 936.2
5 24 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 951.5 Peak female adult emergence
5 25 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 970.4
5 26 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 993.8
5 27 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1011.8 Peak egg laying
5 28 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1028.0
5 29 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1042.4
5 30 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 1055.0
5 31 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1067.6
6 1 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1081.1
6 2 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 1095.5
6 3 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1110.8
6 4 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1125.2
6 5 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1138.7
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1139 .
QA 100% ok
This year is about versus QA 10 days ahead 2022 ok 6 days behind 2021 ok 4 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 6 65.00 49.00 0.00 16.00 1154.7 Sunny
6 7 72.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 1175.7 Sunny
6 8 76.00 54.00 0.00 24.00 1199.7 Partly_Cloudy
6 9 73.00 55.00 0.00 23.00 1222.7 Mostly_Cloudy_5%_precip
6 10 66.00 53.00 0.00 18.50 1241.2 Mostly_Cloudy_17%_precip
6 11 66.00 53.00 0.00 18.50 1259.7 Partly_Cloudy_10%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 69.00 49.60 0.02 18.30 1278.0 *hist_fcst* Peak egg hatch
6 13 67.90 50.30 0.12 18.10 1296.1 *hist_fcst*
6 14 65.30 50.00 0.15 16.65 1312.7 *hist_fcst*
6 15 65.10 48.50 0.05 15.80 1328.5 *hist_fcst*
6 16 67.50 48.60 0.07 17.05 1345.6 *hist_fcst*
6 17 68.30 49.70 0.06 18.00 1363.6 *hist_fcst*
6 18 69.90 49.60 0.07 18.75 1382.3 *hist_fcst*
6 19 69.10 51.10 0.07 19.10 1401.4 *hist_fcst*
6 20 69.80 50.70 0.02 19.25 1420.7 *hist_fcst*
6 21 69.70 50.50 0.12 19.10 1439.8 *hist_fcst*
6 22 70.70 49.90 0.00 19.30 1459.1 *hist_fcst*
6 23 69.90 50.50 0.09 19.20 1478.3 *hist_fcst*
6 24 71.00 50.70 0.08 19.85 1498.1 *hist_fcst*
6 25 72.10 51.10 0.05 20.60 1518.7 *hist_fcst*
6 26 74.90 51.60 0.02 22.25 1541.0 *hist_fcst*
6 27 74.10 52.80 0.04 22.45 1563.4 *hist_fcst*
6 28 74.00 54.00 0.05 23.00 1586.4 *hist_fcst*
6 29 74.80 54.70 0.02 23.75 1610.2 *hist_fcst*
6 30 74.30 53.40 0.01 22.85 1633.0 *hist_fcst*
7 1 72.80 52.90 0.05 21.85 1654.9 *hist_fcst*
7 2 72.40 52.80 0.04 21.60 1676.5 *hist_fcst*
7 3 70.50 53.50 0.07 21.00 1697.5 *hist_fcst*
7 4 70.80 51.60 0.04 20.20 1717.7 *hist_fcst*
7 5 72.60 50.70 0.00 20.65 1738.3 *hist_fcst*
7 6 73.40 51.20 0.00 21.30 1759.6 *hist_fcst*
7 7 75.50 53.00 0.00 23.25 1782.9 *hist_fcst*
7 8 71.40 52.10 0.00 20.75 1803.6 *hist_fcst*
7 9 75.70 52.60 0.02 23.15 1826.8 *hist_fcst*
7 10 73.90 52.50 0.04 22.20 1849.0 *hist_fcst*
7 11 71.70 53.10 0.02 21.40 1870.4 *hist_fcst*
7 12 72.90 52.30 0.01 21.60 1892.0 *hist_fcst*
7 13 75.70 51.90 0.00 22.80 1914.8 *hist_fcst*
7 14 74.70 51.40 0.02 22.05 1936.8 *hist_fcst*
7 15 76.10 51.10 0.00 22.60 1959.4 *hist_fcst*
7 16 74.80 52.50 0.00 22.65 1982.1 *hist_fcst*
7 17 76.70 52.70 0.00 23.70 2005.8 *hist_fcst*
7 18 75.00 52.30 0.04 22.65 2028.4 *hist_fcst*
7 19 74.70 53.10 0.00 22.90 2051.3 *hist_fcst*
7 20 75.50 53.10 0.02 23.30 2074.6 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 21 73.00 52.90 0.02 21.95 2096.6 *hist_fcst*
7 22 74.50 51.60 0.01 22.05 2118.6 *hist_fcst*
7 23 72.90 53.10 0.06 22.00 2140.6 *hist_fcst*
7 24 72.20 52.70 0.08 21.45 2162.1 *hist_fcst*
7 25 74.30 51.20 0.03 21.75 2183.8 *hist_fcst*
7 26 76.60 51.70 0.00 23.15 2207.0 *hist_fcst*
7 27 77.10 52.10 0.00 23.60 2230.6 *hist_fcst*
7 28 76.60 52.00 0.00 23.30 2253.9 *hist_fcst*
7 29 77.60 50.80 0.00 23.20 2277.1 *hist_fcst*
7 30 80.00 51.40 0.00 24.70 2301.8 *hist_fcst*
7 31 78.60 52.80 0.00 24.70 2326.5 *hist_fcst*
8 1 76.40 53.10 0.00 23.75 2350.2 *hist_fcst*
8 2 76.20 52.80 0.03 23.50 2373.7 *hist_fcst*
8 3 75.30 54.10 0.03 23.70 2397.4 *hist_fcst*
8 4 76.80 52.60 0.00 23.70 2421.1 *hist_fcst*
8 5 79.60 53.10 0.00 25.35 2446.5 *hist_fcst*
8 6 76.40 53.80 0.02 24.10 2470.6 *hist_fcst*
8 7 74.70 53.40 0.02 23.05 2493.6 *hist_fcst*
8 8 74.70 53.40 0.03 23.05 2516.7 *hist_fcst*
8 9 75.30 53.50 0.00 23.40 2540.1 *hist_fcst*
8 10 77.00 53.50 0.00 24.25 2564.3 *hist_fcst*
8 11 77.60 53.10 0.02 24.35 2588.7 *hist_fcst*
8 12 76.20 54.20 0.02 24.20 2612.9 *hist_fcst*
8 13 77.00 54.50 0.05 24.75 2637.6 *hist_fcst*
8 14 77.10 53.00 0.02 24.05 2661.7 *hist_fcst*
8 15 75.80 52.80 0.06 23.30 2685.0 *hist_fcst*
8 16 76.70 53.90 0.00 24.30 2709.3 *hist_fcst*
8 17 77.00 53.90 0.00 24.45 2733.7 *hist_fcst*
8 18 76.40 52.30 0.00 23.35 2757.1 *hist_fcst*
8 19 75.80 53.00 0.00 23.40 2780.5 *hist_fcst*
8 20 77.00 53.00 0.00 24.00 2804.5 *hist_fcst*
8 21 75.60 52.70 0.01 23.15 2827.6 *hist_fcst*
8 22 72.60 52.00 0.07 21.30 2848.9 *hist_fcst*
8 23 74.90 50.20 0.00 21.55 2870.5 *hist_fcst*
8 24 72.80 50.70 0.01 20.75 2891.2 *hist_fcst*
8 25 73.10 49.50 0.00 20.30 2911.5 *hist_fcst*
8 26 74.40 49.30 0.00 20.85 2932.4 *hist_fcst*
8 27 75.80 51.40 0.01 22.60 2955.0 *hist_fcst*
8 28 77.00 51.80 0.03 23.40 2978.4 *hist_fcst*
8 29 75.60 52.70 0.04 23.15 3001.5 *hist_fcst*
8 30 74.00 52.70 0.09 22.35 3023.9 *hist_fcst*
8 31 71.50 53.30 0.02 21.40 3045.3 *hist_fcst*
9 1 70.00 52.40 0.26 20.20 3065.5 *hist_fcst*
9 2 72.50 50.70 0.07 20.60 3086.1 *hist_fcst*
9 3 73.00 50.30 0.13 20.65 3106.7 *hist_fcst*
9 4 72.60 49.50 0.01 20.05 3126.8 *hist_fcst*
9 5 73.10 48.60 0.02 19.85 3146.6 *hist_fcst*
9 6 72.30 50.90 0.10 20.60 3167.2 *hist_fcst*
9 7 74.20 52.10 0.03 22.15 3189.4 *hist_fcst*
9 8 73.80 52.40 0.05 22.10 3211.5 *hist_fcst*
9 9 72.60 52.80 0.07 21.70 3233.2 *hist_fcst*
9 10 71.90 51.10 0.14 20.50 3253.7 *hist_fcst*
9 11 72.50 50.80 0.00 20.65 3274.3 *hist_fcst*
9 12 72.10 50.00 0.03 20.05 3294.4 *hist_fcst*
9 13 70.10 49.20 0.08 18.65 3313.0 *hist_fcst*
9 14 69.10 49.30 0.04 18.20 3331.2 *hist_fcst*
9 15 68.70 49.30 0.06 18.00 3349.2 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988 Location: 2023 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1139 . QA 100% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME This year is about versus QA 10 days ahead 2022 ok 6 days behind 2021 ok 4 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Date DDs Event 5-18-23 858 Peak pheromone trap catch 5-24-23 951 Peak female adult emergence 5-27-23 1012 Peak egg laying 6-12-23 1278 Peak egg hatch 7-20-23 2075 Peak in density large larvae
