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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.40 37.40 0.02 1.91 1.9 * START *
1 2 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 4.1
1 3 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 5.1
1 4 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 9.1
1 5 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 22.6
1 6 55.40 46.40 0.02 9.90 32.5
1 7 50.00 44.60 0.12 6.30 38.8
1 8 50.00 39.20 0.04 3.92 42.8
1 9 55.40 42.80 0.04 8.10 50.9
1 10 51.80 42.80 0.01 6.30 57.2
1 11 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 64.4
1 12 55.40 46.40 0.08 9.90 74.3
1 13 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 86.0
1 14 55.40 48.20 0.04 10.80 96.8
1 15 51.80 41.00 0.12 5.40 102.2
1 16 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 108.5
1 17 48.20 42.80 0.06 4.50 113.0
1 18 50.00 35.60 0.17 3.26 116.2
1 19 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 117.1
1 20 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 118.0
1 21 44.60 30.20 0.06 0.78 118.8
1 22 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 119.0
1 23 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 120.0
1 24 42.80 37.40 0.08 0.46 120.4
1 25 46.40 41.00 0.01 2.70 123.1
1 26 44.60 39.20 0.15 1.36 124.5
1 27 44.60 39.20 0.44 1.36 125.8
1 28 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 128.1
1 29 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 128.1
1 30 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 128.1
1 31 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 128.1
2 1 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 129.8
2 2 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 132.5
2 3 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 135.3
2 4 55.40 46.40 0.04 9.90 145.2
2 5 46.40 42.80 0.11 3.60 148.8
2 6 48.20 42.80 0.01 4.50 153.3
2 7 50.00 42.80 0.12 5.40 158.7
2 8 48.20 37.40 0.08 2.72 161.4
2 9 51.80 41.00 0.05 5.40 166.8
2 10 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 171.6
2 11 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 173.0
2 12 48.20 35.60 0.05 2.48 175.5
2 13 46.40 37.40 0.09 1.91 177.4
2 14 44.60 28.40 0.03 0.74 178.2
2 15 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 178.9
2 16 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 180.6
2 17 46.40 39.20 0.15 2.19 182.8
2 18 46.40 35.60 0.12 1.72 184.5
2 19 46.40 37.40 0.12 1.91 186.4
2 20 48.20 44.60 0.83 5.40 191.8
2 21 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 193.6
2 22 35.60 30.20 0.00 0.00 193.6
2 23 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 193.6
2 24 33.80 19.40 0.00 0.00 193.6
2 25 39.20 24.80 0.01 0.00 193.6
2 26 44.60 33.80 0.03 0.92 194.5
2 27 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 194.5
2 28 39.20 30.20 0.12 0.00 194.5
3 1 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 194.8
3 2 50.00 37.40 0.14 3.54 198.3
3 3 44.60 37.40 0.01 1.15 199.5
3 4 46.40 37.40 0.08 1.91 201.4
3 5 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 203.7
3 6 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 206.9
3 7 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 211.8
3 8 50.00 35.60 0.01 3.26 215.1
3 9 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 219.2
3 10 48.20 39.20 0.20 3.05 222.2
3 11 50.00 39.20 0.05 3.92 226.1
3 12 50.00 37.40 0.05 3.54 229.7
3 13 50.00 35.60 0.32 3.26 232.9
3 14 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 237.3
3 15 50.00 33.80 0.10 3.04 240.4
3 16 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 244.2
3 17 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 251.6
3 18 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 262.4
3 19 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 272.3
3 20 53.60 44.60 0.23 8.10 280.4
3 21 53.60 41.00 0.13 6.30 286.7
3 22 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 294.2
3 23 51.80 37.40 0.30 4.38 298.5
3 24 42.80 37.40 0.30 0.46 299.0
3 25 46.40 35.60 0.07 1.72 300.7
3 26 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 303.8
3 27 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 308.4
3 28 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 318.0
3 29 59.00 33.80 0.00 7.08 325.1
3 30 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 329.4
3 31 48.20 42.80 0.04 4.50 333.9
4 1 50.00 37.40 0.07 3.54 337.5
4 2 46.40 35.60 0.02 1.72 339.2
4 3 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 341.7
4 4 50.00 35.60 0.02 3.26 344.9
4 5 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 349.3
4 6 57.20 44.60 0.04 9.90 359.2
4 7 55.40 46.40 0.05 9.90 369.1
4 8 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 378.1
4 9 59.00 46.40 0.08 11.70 389.8
4 10 46.40 42.80 0.14 3.60 393.4
4 11 50.00 39.20 0.06 3.92 397.3
4 12 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 401.2
4 13 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 406.4
4 14 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 411.8
4 15 51.80 41.00 0.02 5.40 417.2
4 16 53.60 37.40 0.28 5.24 422.5
4 17 53.60 37.40 0.05 5.24 427.7
4 18 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 431.6
4 19 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 437.9
4 20 50.00 39.20 0.04 3.92 441.8
4 21 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 448.1
4 22 60.80 46.40 0.13 12.60 460.7
4 23 53.60 46.40 0.20 9.00 469.7
4 24 57.20 42.80 0.13 9.00 478.7
4 25 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 487.7
4 26 59.00 41.00 0.01 9.00 496.7
4 27 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 506.0
4 28 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 520.4
4 29 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 539.3
4 30 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 550.1
5 1 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 560.9
5 2 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 579.8
5 3 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 597.8
5 4 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 609.5
5 5 51.80 48.20 0.34 9.00 618.5
5 6 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 630.2
5 7 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 643.7
5 8 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 653.6
5 9 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 666.2
5 10 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 680.6
5 11 69.80 42.80 0.00 15.30 695.9
5 12 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 715.7
5 13 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 738.2
5 14 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 764.3
5 15 82.40 62.60 0.00 31.50 795.8
5 16 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 816.5
5 17 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 838.1
5 18 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 857.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 19 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 877.7
5 20 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 897.5
5 21 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 911.0
5 22 57.20 48.20 0.02 11.70 922.7
5 23 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 936.2
5 24 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 951.5 Peak female adult emergence
5 25 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 970.4
5 26 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 993.8
5 27 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1011.8 Peak egg laying
5 28 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1028.0
5 29 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1042.4
5 30 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 1055.0
5 31 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1067.6
6 1 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1081.1
6 2 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 1095.5
6 3 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1110.8
6 4 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1125.2
6 5 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1138.7
6 6 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 1156.7
6 7 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 1182.8
6 8 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1203.5
6 9 55.40 51.80 0.18 12.60 1216.1
6 10 60.80 51.80 0.21 15.30 1231.4
6 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1249.4
6 12 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1271.9 Peak egg hatch
6 13 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1288.1
6 14 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1306.1
6 15 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 1324.1
6 16 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1343.9
6 17 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 1357.4
6 18 59.00 46.40 0.27 11.70 1369.1
6 19 57.20 44.60 0.03 9.90 1379.0
6 20 60.80 50.00 0.06 14.40 1393.4
6 21 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1410.5
6 22 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1430.3
6 23 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1452.8
6 24 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1469.0
6 25 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1490.6
6 26 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1511.3
6 27 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1531.1
6 28 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1551.8
6 29 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1574.3
6 30 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1596.8
7 1 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1617.5
7 2 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1637.3
7 3 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 1658.0
7 4 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1682.3
7 5 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1710.2
7 6 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1737.2
7 7 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1756.1
7 8 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1775.9
7 9 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1795.7
7 10 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1815.5
7 11 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1837.1
7 12 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1856.9
7 13 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1878.5
7 14 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 1903.7
7 15 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1930.7
7 16 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1956.8
7 17 71.60 55.40 0.01 22.50 1979.3
7 18 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2001.8
7 19 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2027.9
7 20 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2054.9
7 21 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2079.2 Peak in density large larvae
7 22 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2104.4
7 23 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2128.7
7 24 71.60 55.40 0.66 22.50 2151.2
7 25 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2172.8
7 26 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 2191.7
7 27 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2216.0
7 28 78.00 52.50 0.00 24.25 2240.2 Hx Hn
7 29 79.20 51.70 0.00 24.45 2264.7 Hx Hn
7 30 81.50 51.80 0.00 25.65 2290.3 Hx Hn
7 31 80.60 53.20 0.00 25.90 2316.2 Hx Hn
8 1 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2340.5
8 2 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2364.8
8 3 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2389.1
8 4 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2415.2
8 5 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2441.3
8 6 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 2469.2
8 7 75.20 57.20 0.02 25.20 2494.4
8 8 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2519.6
8 9 69.80 57.20 0.02 22.50 2542.1
8 10 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2566.4
8 11 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2590.7
8 12 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2616.8
8 13 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2644.7
8 14 86.00 64.40 0.00 34.20 2678.9
8 15 86.00 64.40 0.00 34.20 2713.1
8 16 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 2745.5
8 17 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2775.2
8 18 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2797.7
8 19 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 2814.8
8 20 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 2833.7
8 21 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 2852.6
8 22 71.00 48.20 0.00 18.60 2871.2 Vx
8 23 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2893.7
8 24 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 2913.5
8 25 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2937.8
8 26 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2963.0
8 27 77.20 58.90 0.00 27.05 2990.1 Vx Vn
8 28 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 3009.0
8 29 60.50 58.30 0.00 18.40 3027.4 Vx Vn
8 30 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3050.8
8 31 71.60 55.40 0.06 22.50 3073.3
9 1 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3094.9
9 2 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3121.9
9 3 68.00 57.20 0.23 21.60 3143.5
9 4 68.00 55.40 0.02 20.70 3164.2
9 5 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 3182.2
9 6 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 3201.1
9 7 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 3220.9
9 8 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 3238.9
9 9 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 3257.8
9 10 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3282.1
9 11 73.50 50.90 0.00 21.20 3303.3 Hx Hn
9 12 68.00 66.20 0.00 26.10 3329.4 Vn
9 13 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3350.1
9 14 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 3369.0
9 15 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 3392.4
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-18-23 | 858 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-24-23 | 951 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-27-23 | 1012 | Peak egg laying |
6-12-23 | 1272 | Peak egg hatch |
7-21-23 | 2079 | Peak in density large larvae |