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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 41.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 44.60 37.40 0.12 1.15 1.1
1 3 41.00 35.60 0.02 0.00 1.1
1 4 41.00 35.60 0.12 0.00 1.1
1 5 33.80 30.20 0.02 0.00 1.1
1 6 50.00 32.00 0.57 2.86 4.0
1 7 48.20 33.80 0.50 2.29 6.3
1 8 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 7.2
1 9 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 9.5
1 10 55.40 32.00 0.04 5.17 14.7
1 11 53.60 48.20 0.53 9.90 24.6
1 12 59.00 48.20 0.33 12.60 37.2
1 13 55.40 41.00 0.01 7.20 44.4
1 14 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 48.8
1 15 46.40 37.40 0.01 1.91 50.7
1 16 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 51.8
1 17 44.60 37.40 0.27 1.15 53.0
1 18 46.40 42.80 0.35 3.60 56.6
1 19 53.60 44.60 0.17 8.10 64.7
1 20 53.60 37.40 0.36 5.24 69.9
1 21 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 71.6
1 22 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 73.3
1 23 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 73.3
1 24 39.20 37.40 0.00 0.00 73.3
1 25 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 73.3
1 26 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 73.3
1 27 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 74.1
1 28 42.80 24.80 0.00 0.24 74.4
1 29 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 74.6
1 30 50.00 39.20 0.08 3.92 78.6
1 31 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 80.1
2 1 42.80 30.20 0.01 0.29 80.4
2 2 39.20 28.40 0.01 0.00 80.4
2 3 44.60 35.60 0.16 1.01 81.4
2 4 48.20 41.00 0.06 3.60 85.0
2 5 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 87.2
2 6 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 89.7
2 7 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 93.0
2 8 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 96.6
2 9 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 102.0
2 10 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 105.6
2 11 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 108.6
2 12 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 110.9
2 13 55.40 26.60 0.00 4.58 115.5
2 14 53.60 39.20 0.06 5.67 121.2
2 15 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 125.7
2 16 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 128.7
2 17 46.40 39.20 0.01 2.19 130.9
2 18 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 134.5
2 19 44.60 39.20 0.21 1.36 135.8
2 20 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 136.8
2 21 42.80 30.20 0.90 0.29 137.1
2 22 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 137.1
2 23 48.00 23.00 0.00 1.62 138.7 Px
2 24 39.20 21.20 0.02 0.00 138.7
2 25 42.80 24.80 0.00 0.24 139.0
2 26 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 140.9
2 27 51.80 48.20 0.09 9.00 149.9
2 28 51.80 42.80 0.63 6.30 156.2
3 1 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 166.1
3 2 51.80 46.40 0.34 8.10 174.2
3 3 48.20 37.40 0.08 2.72 176.9
3 4 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 179.6
3 5 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 181.9
3 6 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 185.0
3 7 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 186.7
3 8 55.40 39.20 0.02 6.56 193.2
3 9 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 194.7
3 10 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 195.4
3 11 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 197.4
3 12 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 203.9
3 13 55.40 44.60 0.04 9.00 212.9
3 14 51.80 44.60 0.38 7.20 220.1
3 15 50.00 41.00 0.23 4.50 224.6
3 16 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 230.0
3 17 46.40 42.80 0.75 3.60 233.6
3 18 53.60 42.80 0.15 7.20 240.8
3 19 51.80 41.00 0.19 5.40 246.2
3 20 46.40 37.40 0.06 1.91 248.1
3 21 50.00 41.00 0.39 4.50 252.6
3 22 60.80 46.40 0.14 12.60 265.2
3 23 51.80 41.00 0.08 5.40 270.6
3 24 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 275.9
3 25 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 283.3
3 26 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 294.1
3 27 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 304.9
3 28 53.60 41.00 0.09 6.30 311.2
3 29 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 320.2
3 30 53.60 42.80 0.12 7.20 327.4
3 31 53.60 37.40 0.06 5.24 332.6
4 1 53.60 39.20 0.01 5.67 338.3
4 2 55.40 41.00 0.01 7.20 345.5
4 3 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 352.7
4 4 51.80 39.20 0.45 4.79 357.5
4 5 51.80 37.40 0.04 4.38 361.9
4 6 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 368.5
4 7 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 383.8
4 8 53.60 42.80 0.28 7.20 391.0
4 9 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 394.9
4 10 46.40 33.80 0.09 1.58 396.5
4 11 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 400.9
4 12 48.20 37.40 0.04 2.72 403.6
4 13 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 406.8
4 14 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 409.9
4 15 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 413.7
4 16 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 417.8
4 17 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 425.2
4 18 51.80 41.00 0.17 5.40 430.6
4 19 53.60 39.20 0.02 5.67 436.3
4 20 55.40 39.20 0.02 6.56 442.8
4 21 57.20 41.00 0.04 8.10 450.9
4 22 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 459.0
4 23 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 468.9
4 24 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 481.7
4 25 59.00 44.60 0.17 10.80 492.5
4 26 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 499.7
4 27 55.40 41.00 0.01 7.20 506.9
4 28 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 514.1
4 29 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 524.0
4 30 59.00 42.80 0.13 9.90 533.9
5 1 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 545.6
5 2 53.60 48.20 0.46 9.90 555.5
5 3 53.60 46.40 0.02 9.00 564.5
5 4 53.60 44.60 0.01 8.10 572.6
5 5 50.00 44.60 0.73 6.30 578.9
5 6 53.60 41.00 0.02 6.30 585.2
5 7 55.40 41.00 0.03 7.20 592.4
5 8 53.60 39.20 0.16 5.67 598.1
5 9 55.40 39.20 0.04 6.56 604.7
5 10 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 615.5
5 11 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 624.5
5 12 55.40 42.80 0.10 8.10 632.6
5 13 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 640.7
5 14 66.20 46.40 0.02 15.30 656.0
5 15 64.40 51.80 0.47 17.10 673.1
5 16 55.40 46.40 0.01 9.90 683.0
5 17 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 693.8
5 18 57.20 46.40 0.06 10.80 704.6
5 19 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 713.6
5 20 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 722.8
5 21 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 734.5
5 22 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 748.9
5 23 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 762.4
5 24 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 774.1
5 25 64.40 48.20 0.06 15.30 789.4
5 26 66.20 44.60 0.10 14.40 803.8
5 27 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 819.1
5 28 57.20 50.00 0.02 12.60 831.7
5 29 60.80 48.20 0.07 13.50 845.2
5 30 59.00 48.20 0.03 12.60 857.8 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 31 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 873.1
6 1 68.00 50.00 0.04 18.00 891.1
6 2 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 911.8
6 3 64.40 57.20 0.31 19.80 931.6
6 4 69.80 57.20 0.05 22.50 954.1 Peak female adult emergence
6 5 64.40 50.00 1.30 16.20 970.3
6 6 62.60 46.40 0.10 13.50 983.8
6 7 68.00 46.40 0.03 16.20 1000.0
6 8 68.00 53.60 0.01 19.80 1019.8 Peak egg laying
6 9 60.80 51.80 0.78 15.30 1035.1
6 10 69.80 55.40 0.25 21.60 1056.7
6 11 66.20 53.60 0.23 18.90 1075.6
6 12 60.80 50.00 0.02 14.40 1090.0
6 13 60.80 50.00 0.18 14.40 1104.4
6 14 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 1116.1
6 15 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1130.5
6 16 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1147.6
6 17 62.60 53.60 0.00 17.10 1164.7
6 18 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1180.9
6 19 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1197.1
6 20 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1214.2
6 21 69.80 48.20 0.00 18.00 1232.2
6 22 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1250.2
6 23 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 1265.5
6 24 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1282.6 Peak egg hatch
6 25 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1306.9
6 26 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1334.8
6 27 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 1365.4
6 28 64.40 51.80 0.05 17.10 1382.5
6 29 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1402.3
6 30 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1421.2
7 1 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1441.0
7 2 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1457.2
7 3 57.20 53.60 0.30 14.40 1471.6
7 4 68.00 55.40 0.02 20.70 1492.3
7 5 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1513.0
7 6 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1536.4
7 7 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 1558.9
7 8 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 1580.5
7 9 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1600.3
7 10 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1623.7
7 11 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1648.0
7 12 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1668.7
7 13 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1689.4
7 14 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1710.1
7 15 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1731.7
7 16 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 1753.3
7 17 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1773.1
7 18 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1792.9
7 19 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1814.5
7 20 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1837.9
7 21 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1861.3
7 22 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 1882.9
7 23 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1904.5
7 24 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1927.0
7 25 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1953.1
7 26 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 1984.6
7 27 82.40 62.60 0.00 31.50 2016.1
7 28 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2047.6
7 29 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2077.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 30 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 2107.9
7 31 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2139.4
8 1 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2164.6
8 2 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2187.1
8 3 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2207.8
8 4 69.80 51.80 0.19 19.80 2227.6
8 5 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 2246.5
8 6 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2269.9
8 7 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2295.1
8 8 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 2323.9
8 9 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2345.5
8 10 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2368.0
8 11 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2392.3
8 12 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2416.6
8 13 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2440.9
8 14 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2464.3
8 15 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2490.4
8 16 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2516.5
8 17 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2542.6
8 18 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 2575.0
8 19 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 2604.7
8 20 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2630.8
8 21 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2656.9
8 22 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2683.0
8 23 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 2707.3
8 24 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2732.5
8 25 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2762.2
8 26 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2783.8
8 27 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 2803.6
8 28 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2825.2
8 29 80.60 51.80 0.07 25.20 2850.4
8 30 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2878.3
8 31 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2909.8
9 1 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2935.0
9 2 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2957.5
9 3 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2981.8
9 4 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 3007.0
9 5 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 3026.8
9 6 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 3046.6
9 7 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 3066.4
9 8 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 3085.3
9 9 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 3105.1
9 10 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 3125.8
9 11 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 3152.8
9 12 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 3174.4
9 13 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 3194.2
9 14 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 3214.0
9 15 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 3233.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-30-22 | 858 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 6-4-22 | 954 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 6-8-22 | 1020 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-24-22 | 1283 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-29-22 | 2077 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1757626)
