Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.60 30.20 0.11 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 32.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 39.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 42.80 35.60 0.16 0.39 0.4 1 9 44.60 37.40 0.17 1.15 1.5 1 10 39.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 11 33.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 12 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 13 33.80 23.00 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 14 37.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 15 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 16 48.20 32.00 0.10 2.14 3.7 1 17 55.40 46.40 0.17 9.90 13.6 1 18 55.40 44.60 0.50 9.00 22.6 1 19 50.00 46.40 0.26 7.20 29.8 1 20 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 33.7 1 21 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 37.6 1 22 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 39.8 1 23 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 40.7 1 24 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 40.7 1 25 43.00 33.80 0.00 0.41 41.1 1 26 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 42.8 1 27 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 46.0 1 28 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 48.3 1 29 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 52.2 1 30 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 53.4 1 31 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 54.1 2 1 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 54.9 2 2 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 55.6 2 3 39.20 32.00 0.22 0.00 55.6 2 4 44.60 35.60 0.21 1.01 56.6 2 5 42.80 32.00 0.24 0.32 56.9 2 6 35.60 28.40 0.08 0.00 56.9 2 7 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 56.9 2 8 35.60 28.40 0.21 0.00 56.9 2 9 59.00 35.60 0.26 7.43 64.3 2 10 48.20 39.20 0.04 3.05 67.4 2 11 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 70.1 2 12 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 72.4 2 13 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 75.1 2 14 59.00 33.80 0.03 7.08 82.2 2 15 59.00 48.20 0.08 12.60 94.8 2 16 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 104.7 2 17 53.60 42.80 0.01 7.20 111.9 2 18 42.80 41.00 0.11 0.90 112.8 2 19 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 116.7 2 20 48.20 41.00 0.03 3.60 120.3 2 21 46.40 37.40 0.01 1.91 122.2 2 22 44.60 33.80 0.27 0.92 123.1 2 23 42.80 28.40 0.02 0.27 123.4 2 24 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 124.2 2 25 42.80 32.00 0.28 0.32 124.6 2 26 44.60 32.00 0.35 0.84 125.4 2 27 37.40 28.40 0.11 0.00 125.4 2 28 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 125.7 3 1 44.60 41.00 0.27 1.80 127.5 3 2 46.40 42.80 0.02 3.60 131.1 3 3 50.00 35.60 0.39 3.26 134.3 3 4 44.60 32.00 0.31 0.84 135.2 3 5 44.60 35.60 0.07 1.01 136.2 3 6 42.80 32.00 0.07 0.32 136.5 3 7 41.00 35.60 0.13 0.00 136.5 3 8 46.40 33.80 0.15 1.58 138.1 3 9 48.20 37.40 0.23 2.72 140.8 3 10 51.80 42.80 0.01 6.30 147.1 3 11 51.80 41.00 0.09 5.40 152.5 3 12 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 161.5 3 13 51.80 46.40 0.29 8.10 169.6 3 14 60.80 46.40 0.18 12.60 182.2 3 15 53.60 46.40 0.22 9.00 191.2 3 16 51.80 35.60 0.02 4.07 195.3 3 17 48.20 39.20 0.22 3.05 198.3 3 18 53.60 33.80 0.28 4.62 202.9 3 19 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 206.0 3 20 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 210.9 3 21 59.00 44.60 0.05 10.80 221.7 3 22 55.40 42.80 0.05 8.10 229.8 3 23 55.40 42.80 0.08 8.10 237.9 3 24 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 246.0 3 25 50.00 41.00 0.22 4.50 250.5 3 26 51.80 41.00 0.18 5.40 255.9 3 27 53.60 46.40 0.02 9.00 264.9 3 28 50.00 44.60 0.09 6.30 271.2 3 29 53.60 44.60 0.36 8.10 279.3 3 30 53.60 39.20 0.01 5.67 285.0 3 31 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 291.1 4 1 55.40 46.40 0.20 9.90 301.0 4 2 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 306.7 4 3 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 311.6 4 4 56.40 40.00 0.00 7.31 318.9 Hx Hn 4 5 53.60 48.20 0.13 9.90 328.8 4 6 57.20 46.40 0.02 10.80 339.6 4 7 59.00 46.40 0.35 11.70 351.3 4 8 50.00 42.80 0.09 5.40 356.7 4 9 55.40 39.20 0.13 6.56 363.2 4 10 51.80 42.80 0.02 6.30 369.5 4 11 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 377.0 4 12 62.60 46.40 0.22 13.50 390.5 4 13 57.20 46.40 0.13 10.80 401.3 4 14 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 410.3 4 15 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 419.3 4 16 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 428.5 4 17 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 442.9 4 18 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 456.4 4 19 55.40 46.40 0.06 9.90 466.3 4 20 59.00 46.40 0.08 11.70 478.0 4 21 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 491.5 4 22 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 508.6 4 23 55.40 48.20 0.11 10.80 519.4 4 24 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 529.3 4 25 57.20 46.40 0.06 10.80 540.1 4 26 57.20 46.40 0.06 10.80 550.9 4 27 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 559.9 4 28 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 568.9 4 29 55.40 39.20 0.04 6.56 575.5 4 30 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 585.4 5 1 51.80 42.80 0.06 6.30 591.7 5 2 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 603.4 5 3 64.40 53.60 0.26 18.00 621.4 5 4 71.60 48.20 0.38 18.90 640.3 5 5 57.20 44.60 0.22 9.90 650.2 5 6 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 657.6 5 7 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 665.9 5 8 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 677.6 5 9 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 690.2 5 10 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 706.4 5 11 62.60 50.00 0.29 15.30 721.7 5 12 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 732.5 5 13 59.00 44.60 0.01 10.80 743.3 5 14 60.80 44.60 0.03 11.70 755.0 5 15 53.60 46.40 0.37 9.00 764.0 5 16 51.80 42.80 0.30 6.30 770.3 5 17 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 782.9 5 18 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 798.2 5 19 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 813.5 5 20 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 830.6 5 21 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 847.7 5 22 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 868.4 peak pheromone trap catch 5 23 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 886.4 5 24 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 899.9 5 25 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 914.3 5 26 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 935.0 5 27 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 957.5 peak female adult emergence 5 28 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 980.9 5 29 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 999.8 5 30 53.60 50.00 0.02 10.80 1010.6 peak egg laying 5 31 69.80 51.80 0.02 19.80 1030.4 6 1 62.60 55.40 0.04 18.00 1048.4 6 2 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1068.2 6 3 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1082.6 6 4 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1097.9 6 5 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1113.2 6 6 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1133.0 6 7 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1155.5 6 8 60.80 51.80 0.51 15.30 1170.8 6 9 66.20 48.20 0.06 16.20 1187.0 6 10 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1204.1 6 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1222.1 6 12 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1236.5 6 13 62.60 51.80 0.01 16.20 1252.7 6 14 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1268.0 6 15 62.60 51.80 0.14 16.20 1284.2 peak egg hatch 6 16 66.20 51.80 0.07 18.00 1302.2 6 17 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1316.6 6 18 64.40 51.80 0.08 17.10 1333.7 6 19 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1352.6 6 20 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1367.0 6 21 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1383.2 6 22 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1398.5 6 23 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1417.4 6 24 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1441.7 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KBVS data
  6 25  83.80 68.30  0.00  35.05   1476.8  0.00_26.05%_precip.    
  6 26  70.10 56.80  0.00  22.45   1499.2  0.00_13.45%_precip.    
  6 27  69.10 55.10  0.00  21.10   1520.3  0.002_12.10%_precip.    
  6 28  64.40 56.00  0.06  19.20   1539.5  0.063_10.20%_precip.    
  6 29  66.70 55.60  0.00  20.15   1559.7  0.003_11.15%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KBVS 2006-2015
  6 30  72.30 52.70  0.04  21.50   1581.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  72.30 51.40  0.02  20.85   1602.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  72.30 50.70  0.01  20.50   1622.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  73.10 52.50  0.06  21.80   1644.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  70.80 51.80  0.05  20.30   1664.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  71.40 51.50  0.00  20.45   1685.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  72.40 51.70  0.00  21.05   1706.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  71.40 51.40  0.00  20.40   1726.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  72.10 51.50  0.01  20.80   1747.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  74.60 52.20  0.00  22.40   1769.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  74.50 51.70  0.00  22.10   1791.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  71.90 52.40  0.00  21.15   1813.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  74.20 52.40  0.00  22.30   1835.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  72.00 53.70  0.04  21.85   1857.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  71.00 52.40  0.06  20.70   1877.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  73.40 51.60  0.01  21.50   1899.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  74.10 52.60  0.01  22.35   1921.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  75.60 52.20  0.01  22.90   1944.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  72.80 52.50  0.01  21.65   1966.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  71.30 52.60  0.02  20.95   1987.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  73.10 53.40  0.02  22.25   2009.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  71.00 53.90  0.05  21.45   2030.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  74.00 54.20  0.03  23.10   2054.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  71.90 53.80  0.05  21.85   2075.8  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 24  71.10 53.30  0.09  21.20   2097.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  73.50 52.40  0.03  21.95   2119.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  72.90 53.00  0.04  21.95   2140.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  74.10 53.30  0.00  22.70   2163.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  74.20 52.90  0.00  22.55   2186.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  74.70 52.70  0.00  22.70   2208.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  75.00 53.40  0.01  23.20   2232.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  74.10 51.80  0.01  21.95   2254.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  73.40 50.90  0.03  21.15   2275.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  73.40 51.90  0.01  21.65   2296.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  74.00 52.40  0.02  22.20   2319.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  74.40 51.80  0.00  22.10   2341.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  76.20 52.70  0.00  23.45   2364.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  73.90 53.40  0.00  22.65   2387.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  73.90 53.00  0.00  22.45   2409.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  71.10 53.90  0.04  21.50   2431.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  70.70 53.30  0.01  21.00   2452.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  71.20 53.60  0.03  21.40   2473.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  71.90 53.00  0.06  21.45   2495.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  73.30 51.90  0.02  21.60   2516.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  73.70 53.60  0.04  22.65   2539.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  72.80 53.10  0.03  21.95   2561.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  74.40 54.50  0.06  23.45   2584.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  75.30 54.40  0.00  23.85   2608.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  76.50 53.50  0.00  24.00   2632.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  76.00 52.40  0.00  23.20   2655.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  73.30 53.80  0.02  22.55   2678.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  73.80 54.10  0.05  22.95   2701.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  72.00 53.00  0.07  21.50   2722.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  72.40 52.20  0.02  21.30   2744.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  71.50 52.60  0.02  21.05   2765.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  73.70 51.90  0.01  21.80   2786.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  72.50 50.80  0.06  20.65   2807.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  73.30 51.60  0.01  21.45   2829.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  73.30 51.60  0.04  21.45   2850.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  74.40 52.10  0.03  22.25   2872.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  73.00 53.40  0.05  22.20   2894.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  70.80 52.90  0.09  20.85   2915.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  69.60 51.00  0.01  19.30   2935.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  66.80 50.40  0.10  17.60   2952.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  70.10 49.70  0.06  18.90   2971.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  71.00 50.10  0.12  19.55   2991.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  70.80 50.60  0.02  19.70   3010.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  70.00 49.60  0.03  18.80   3029.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  70.00 51.30  0.11  19.65   3049.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  69.20 51.00  0.15  19.10   3068.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  71.60 50.30  0.00  19.95   3088.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  71.90 51.50  0.01  20.70   3109.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  70.60 50.80  0.03  19.70   3128.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  70.70 49.10  0.00  18.90   3147.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  73.70 49.60  0.00  20.65   3168.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  71.50 50.10  0.01  19.80   3188.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  68.90 50.20  0.01  18.55   3206.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  67.40 50.10  0.02  17.75   3224.3  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA
QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 23 days behind 2016 ok
 21 days behind 2015 ok
 same day 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-22-17 868peak pheromone trap catch
 5-27-17 958peak female adult emergence
 5-30-17 1011peak egg laying
 6-15-17 1284peak egg hatch
 7-23-17 2076peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)