Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.60 30.20 0.11 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 32.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 39.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 42.80 35.60 0.16 0.39 0.4 1 9 44.60 37.40 0.17 1.15 1.5 1 10 39.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 11 33.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 12 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 13 33.80 23.00 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 14 37.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 15 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 16 48.20 32.00 0.10 2.14 3.7 1 17 55.40 46.40 0.17 9.90 13.6 1 18 55.40 44.60 0.50 9.00 22.6 1 19 50.00 46.40 0.26 7.20 29.8 1 20 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 33.7 1 21 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 37.6 1 22 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 39.8 1 23 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 40.7 1 24 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 40.7 1 25 43.00 33.80 0.00 0.41 41.1 1 26 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 42.8 1 27 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 46.0 1 28 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 48.3 1 29 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 52.2 1 30 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 53.4 1 31 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 54.1 2 1 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 54.9 2 2 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 55.6 2 3 39.20 32.00 0.22 0.00 55.6 2 4 44.60 35.60 0.21 1.01 56.6 2 5 42.80 32.00 0.24 0.32 56.9 2 6 35.60 28.40 0.08 0.00 56.9 2 7 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 56.9 2 8 35.60 28.40 0.21 0.00 56.9 2 9 59.00 35.60 0.26 7.43 64.3 2 10 48.20 39.20 0.04 3.05 67.4 2 11 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 70.1 2 12 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 72.4 2 13 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 75.1 2 14 59.00 33.80 0.03 7.08 82.2 2 15 59.00 48.20 0.08 12.60 94.8 2 16 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 104.7 2 17 53.60 42.80 0.01 7.20 111.9 2 18 42.80 41.00 0.11 0.90 112.8 2 19 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 116.7 2 20 48.20 41.00 0.03 3.60 120.3 2 21 46.40 37.40 0.01 1.91 122.2 2 22 44.60 33.80 0.27 0.92 123.1 2 23 42.80 28.40 0.02 0.27 123.4 2 24 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 124.2 2 25 42.80 32.00 0.28 0.32 124.6 2 26 44.60 32.00 0.35 0.84 125.4 2 27 37.40 28.40 0.11 0.00 125.4 2 28 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 125.7 3 1 44.60 41.00 0.27 1.80 127.5 3 2 46.40 42.80 0.02 3.60 131.1 3 3 50.00 35.60 0.39 3.26 134.3 3 4 44.60 32.00 0.31 0.84 135.2 3 5 44.60 35.60 0.07 1.01 136.2 3 6 42.80 32.00 0.07 0.32 136.5 3 7 41.00 35.60 0.13 0.00 136.5 3 8 46.40 33.80 0.15 1.58 138.1 3 9 48.20 37.40 0.23 2.72 140.8 3 10 51.80 42.80 0.01 6.30 147.1 3 11 51.80 41.00 0.09 5.40 152.5 3 12 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 161.5 3 13 51.80 46.40 0.29 8.10 169.6 3 14 60.80 46.40 0.18 12.60 182.2 3 15 53.60 46.40 0.22 9.00 191.2 3 16 51.80 35.60 0.02 4.07 195.3 3 17 48.20 39.20 0.22 3.05 198.3 3 18 53.60 33.80 0.28 4.62 202.9 3 19 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 206.0 3 20 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 210.9 3 21 59.00 44.60 0.05 10.80 221.7 3 22 55.40 42.80 0.05 8.10 229.8 3 23 55.40 42.80 0.08 8.10 237.9 3 24 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 246.0 3 25 50.00 41.00 0.22 4.50 250.5 3 26 51.80 41.00 0.18 5.40 255.9 3 27 53.60 46.40 0.02 9.00 264.9 3 28 50.00 44.60 0.09 6.30 271.2 3 29 53.60 44.60 0.36 8.10 279.3 3 30 53.60 39.20 0.01 5.67 285.0 3 31 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 291.1 4 1 55.40 46.40 0.20 9.90 301.0 4 2 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 306.7 4 3 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 311.6 4 4 56.40 40.00 0.00 7.31 318.9 Hx Hn 4 5 53.60 48.20 0.13 9.90 328.8 4 6 57.20 46.40 0.02 10.80 339.6 4 7 59.00 46.40 0.35 11.70 351.3 4 8 50.00 42.80 0.09 5.40 356.7 4 9 55.40 39.20 0.13 6.56 363.2 4 10 51.80 42.80 0.02 6.30 369.5 4 11 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 377.0 4 12 62.60 46.40 0.22 13.50 390.5 4 13 57.20 46.40 0.13 10.80 401.3 4 14 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 410.3 4 15 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 419.3 4 16 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 428.5 4 17 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 442.9 4 18 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 456.4 4 19 55.40 46.40 0.06 9.90 466.3 4 20 59.00 46.40 0.08 11.70 478.0 4 21 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 491.5 4 22 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 508.6 4 23 55.40 48.20 0.11 10.80 519.4 4 24 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 529.3 4 25 57.20 46.40 0.06 10.80 540.1
DD accumulation on 4-25-17: 540QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 25 days behind 2016 ok
 33 days behind 2015 ok
 3 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KBVS data
  4 26  49.70 46.60  0.13   7.15    547.3  0.129_0.00%_precip.    
  4 27  49.60 44.80  0.21   6.20    553.5  0.211_0.00%_precip.    
  4 28  55.80 44.90  0.01   9.35    562.8  0.011_1.54%_precip.    
  4 29  50.00 42.80  0.23   5.40    568.2  0.226_0.00%_precip.    
  4 30  53.60 46.40  0.15   9.00    577.2  0.153_0.90%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KBVS 2006-2015
  5  1  58.00 41.90  0.07   8.95    586.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5  2  60.00 43.10  0.04  10.55    596.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5  3  58.40 43.70  0.21  10.05    606.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5  4  58.10 41.80  0.10   8.95    615.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5  5  60.20 43.40  0.10  10.80    626.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5  6  60.00 44.10  0.08  11.05    637.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5  7  58.70 44.00  0.11  10.35    647.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  8  61.40 43.30  0.06  11.35    659.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5  9  60.60 41.90  0.10  10.25    669.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 10  60.90 41.70  0.03  10.30    679.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 11  61.60 44.20  0.05  11.90    691.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 12  61.30 43.60  0.15  11.45    703.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 13  62.30 44.80  0.01  12.55    715.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 14  61.10 44.70  0.14  11.90    727.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 15  63.80 45.70  0.06  13.75    741.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 16  66.80 46.80  0.06  15.80    757.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5 17  65.80 48.10  0.01  15.95    773.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5 18  67.70 47.40  0.03  16.55    789.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 19  65.60 47.00  0.09  15.30    805.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 20  64.10 47.30  0.05  14.70    819.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 21  62.30 46.40  0.15  13.35    833.0  *hist_fcst*    
  5 22  61.00 45.80  0.09  12.40    845.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 23  61.20 46.50  0.07  12.85    858.3  *hist_fcst*   peak pheromone trap catch
  5 24  61.50 46.90  0.06  13.20    871.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  64.60 48.20  0.01  15.40    886.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 26  64.80 48.90  0.11  15.85    902.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  63.20 48.50  0.10  14.85    917.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  62.00 48.10  0.20  14.05    931.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  63.30 48.00  0.12  14.65    946.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  63.40 47.60  0.05  14.50    960.8  *hist_fcst*   peak female adult emergence
  5 31  65.20 46.80  0.05  15.00    975.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  67.50 49.50  0.05  17.50    993.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  65.50 50.50  0.08  17.00   1010.3  *hist_fcst*   peak egg laying
  6  3  66.10 49.50  0.05  16.80   1027.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  66.60 49.80  0.10  17.20   1044.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  66.10 50.50  0.05  17.30   1061.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  66.10 48.90  0.07  16.50   1078.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  65.90 49.30  0.06  16.60   1094.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  66.10 49.40  0.04  16.75   1111.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  65.40 49.60  0.07  16.50   1127.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  65.40 49.40  0.10  16.40   1144.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  64.80 48.80  0.03  15.80   1160.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  65.20 49.50  0.01  16.35   1176.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  67.10 49.70  0.04  17.40   1193.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  64.40 49.40  0.04  15.90   1209.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  63.80 48.10  0.02  14.95   1224.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  66.10 48.40  0.04  16.25   1241.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  65.10 50.00  0.08  16.55   1257.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  64.50 50.60  0.07  16.55   1274.1  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6 19  65.20 50.90  0.05  17.05   1291.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  66.20 50.40  0.03  17.30   1308.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  66.00 49.40  0.05  16.70   1325.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  69.40 50.60  0.00  19.00   1344.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  66.30 50.00  0.08  17.15   1361.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  68.90 50.50  0.06  18.70   1380.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  69.70 51.20  0.04  19.45   1399.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  70.00 50.80  0.01  19.40   1418.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  70.10 51.60  0.01  19.85   1438.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  71.70 52.90  0.04  21.30   1460.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  71.40 54.00  0.03  21.70   1481.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  72.30 52.70  0.04  21.50   1503.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  72.30 51.40  0.02  20.85   1524.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  72.30 50.70  0.01  20.50   1544.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  73.10 52.50  0.06  21.80   1566.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  70.80 51.80  0.05  20.30   1586.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  71.40 51.50  0.00  20.45   1607.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  72.40 51.70  0.00  21.05   1628.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  71.40 51.40  0.00  20.40   1648.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  72.10 51.50  0.01  20.80   1669.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  74.60 52.20  0.00  22.40   1691.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  74.50 51.70  0.00  22.10   1713.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  71.90 52.40  0.00  21.15   1735.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  74.20 52.40  0.00  22.30   1757.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  72.00 53.70  0.04  21.85   1779.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  71.00 52.40  0.06  20.70   1799.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  73.40 51.60  0.01  21.50   1821.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  74.10 52.60  0.01  22.35   1843.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  75.60 52.20  0.01  22.90   1866.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  72.80 52.50  0.01  21.65   1888.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  71.30 52.60  0.02  20.95   1909.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  73.10 53.40  0.02  22.25   1931.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  71.00 53.90  0.05  21.45   1952.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  74.00 54.20  0.03  23.10   1976.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  71.90 53.80  0.05  21.85   1997.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  71.10 53.30  0.09  21.20   2019.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  73.50 52.40  0.03  21.95   2041.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  72.90 53.00  0.04  21.95   2062.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  74.10 53.30  0.00  22.70   2085.6  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 28  74.20 52.90  0.00  22.55   2108.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  74.70 52.70  0.00  22.70   2130.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  75.00 53.40  0.01  23.20   2154.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  74.10 51.80  0.01  21.95   2176.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  73.40 50.90  0.03  21.15   2197.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  73.40 51.90  0.01  21.65   2218.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  74.00 52.40  0.02  22.20   2241.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  74.40 51.80  0.00  22.10   2263.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  76.20 52.70  0.00  23.45   2286.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  73.90 53.40  0.00  22.65   2309.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  73.90 53.00  0.00  22.45   2331.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  71.10 53.90  0.04  21.50   2353.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  70.70 53.30  0.01  21.00   2374.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  71.20 53.60  0.03  21.40   2395.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  71.90 53.00  0.06  21.45   2417.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  73.30 51.90  0.02  21.60   2438.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  73.70 53.60  0.04  22.65   2461.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  72.80 53.10  0.03  21.95   2483.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  74.40 54.50  0.06  23.45   2506.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  75.30 54.40  0.00  23.85   2530.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  76.50 53.50  0.00  24.00   2554.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  76.00 52.40  0.00  23.20   2577.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  73.30 53.80  0.02  22.55   2600.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  73.80 54.10  0.05  22.95   2623.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  72.00 53.00  0.07  21.50   2644.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  72.40 52.20  0.02  21.30   2666.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  71.50 52.60  0.02  21.05   2687.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  73.70 51.90  0.01  21.80   2708.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  72.50 50.80  0.06  20.65   2729.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  73.30 51.60  0.01  21.45   2751.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  73.30 51.60  0.04  21.45   2772.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  74.40 52.10  0.03  22.25   2794.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  73.00 53.40  0.05  22.20   2816.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  70.80 52.90  0.09  20.85   2837.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  69.60 51.00  0.01  19.30   2857.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  66.80 50.40  0.10  17.60   2874.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  70.10 49.70  0.06  18.90   2893.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  71.00 50.10  0.12  19.55   2913.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  70.80 50.60  0.02  19.70   2932.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  70.00 49.60  0.03  18.80   2951.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  70.00 51.30  0.11  19.65   2971.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  69.20 51.00  0.15  19.10   2990.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  71.60 50.30  0.00  19.95   3010.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  71.90 51.50  0.01  20.70   3031.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  70.60 50.80  0.03  19.70   3050.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  70.70 49.10  0.00  18.90   3069.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  73.70 49.60  0.00  20.65   3090.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  71.50 50.10  0.01  19.80   3110.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  68.90 50.20  0.01  18.55   3128.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  67.40 50.10  0.02  17.75   3146.3  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA
DD accumulation on 2-22-17: 248 QA 100% ok  - check weather data/Consider using a different Station!DD accumulation on 4-14-17: 747 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-15-17: 2138 QA 100% ok  - show detailsDD accumulation on 4-25-17: 540 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 25 days behind 2016 ok
 33 days behind 2015 ok
 3 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-23-17 858peak pheromone trap catch
 5-30-17 961peak female adult emergence
 6-2-17 1010peak egg laying
 6-18-17 1274peak egg hatch
 7-27-17 2086peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)