Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.60 30.20 0.11 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 32.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 39.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 42.80 35.60 0.16 0.39 0.4 1 9 44.60 37.40 0.17 1.15 1.5 1 10 39.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 11 33.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 12 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 13 33.80 23.00 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 14 37.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 15 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 1.5 1 16 48.20 32.00 0.10 2.14 3.7 1 17 55.40 46.40 0.17 9.90 13.6 1 18 55.40 44.60 0.50 9.00 22.6 1 19 50.00 46.40 0.26 7.20 29.8 1 20 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 33.7 1 21 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 37.6 1 22 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 39.8 1 23 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 40.7 1 24 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 40.7 1 25 43.00 33.80 0.00 0.41 41.1 1 26 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 42.8 1 27 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 46.0 1 28 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 48.3 1 29 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 52.2 1 30 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 53.4 1 31 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 54.1 2 1 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 54.9 2 2 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 55.6 2 3 39.20 32.00 0.22 0.00 55.6 2 4 44.60 35.60 0.21 1.01 56.6 2 5 42.80 32.00 0.24 0.32 56.9 2 6 35.60 28.40 0.08 0.00 56.9 2 7 35.60 26.60 0.00 0.00 56.9 2 8 35.60 28.40 0.21 0.00 56.9 2 9 59.00 35.60 0.26 7.43 64.3 2 10 48.20 39.20 0.04 3.05 67.4 2 11 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 70.1 2 12 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 72.4 2 13 50.00 30.20 0.00 2.71 75.1 2 14 59.00 33.80 0.03 7.08 82.2 2 15 59.00 48.20 0.08 12.60 94.8 2 16 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 104.7 2 17 53.60 42.80 0.01 7.20 111.9 2 18 42.80 41.00 0.11 0.90 112.8 2 19 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 116.7 2 20 48.20 41.00 0.03 3.60 120.3 2 21 46.40 37.40 0.01 1.91 122.2 2 22 44.60 33.80 0.27 0.92 123.1 2 23 42.80 28.40 0.02 0.27 123.4 2 24 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 124.2 2 25 42.80 32.00 0.28 0.32 124.6 2 26 44.60 32.00 0.35 0.84 125.4 2 27 37.40 28.40 0.11 0.00 125.4 2 28 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 125.7 3 1 44.60 41.00 0.27 1.80 127.5 3 2 46.40 42.80 0.02 3.60 131.1 3 3 50.00 35.60 0.39 3.26 134.3 3 4 44.60 32.00 0.31 0.84 135.2 3 5 44.60 35.60 0.07 1.01 136.2 3 6 42.80 32.00 0.07 0.32 136.5 3 7 41.00 35.60 0.13 0.00 136.5 3 8 46.40 33.80 0.15 1.58 138.1 3 9 48.20 37.40 0.23 2.72 140.8 3 10 51.80 42.80 0.01 6.30 147.1 3 11 51.80 41.00 0.09 5.40 152.5 3 12 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 161.5 3 13 51.80 46.40 0.29 8.10 169.6 3 14 60.80 46.40 0.18 12.60 182.2 3 15 53.60 46.40 0.22 9.00 191.2 3 16 51.80 35.60 0.02 4.07 195.3 3 17 48.20 39.20 0.22 3.05 198.3 3 18 53.60 33.80 0.28 4.62 202.9 3 19 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 206.0 3 20 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 210.9 3 21 59.00 44.60 0.05 10.80 221.7 3 22 55.40 42.80 0.05 8.10 229.8 3 23 55.40 42.80 0.08 8.10 237.9 3 24 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 246.0 3 25 50.00 41.00 0.22 4.50 250.5 3 26 51.80 41.00 0.18 5.40 255.9 3 27 53.60 46.40 0.02 9.00 264.9 3 28 50.00 44.60 0.09 6.30 271.2 3 29 53.60 44.60 0.36 8.10 279.3 3 30 53.60 39.20 0.01 5.67 285.0 3 31 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 291.1 4 1 55.40 46.40 0.20 9.90 301.0 4 2 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 306.7 4 3 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 311.6 4 4 54.50 38.20 0.00 5.85 317.4 Hx Hn 4 5 53.60 48.20 0.13 9.90 327.3 4 6 57.20 46.40 0.02 10.80 338.1 4 7 59.00 46.40 0.35 11.70 349.8 4 8 50.00 42.80 0.09 5.40 355.2 4 9 55.40 39.20 0.13 6.56 361.8 4 10 51.80 42.80 0.02 6.30 368.1 4 11 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 375.5 4 12 62.60 46.40 0.22 13.50 389.0 4 13 57.20 46.40 0.13 10.80 399.8 4 14 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 408.8 4 15 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 417.8 4 16 60.80 39.20 0.00 9.22 427.0 4 17 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 441.4 4 18 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 454.9 4 19 55.40 46.40 0.06 9.90 464.8 4 20 59.00 46.40 0.08 11.70 476.5 4 21 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 490.0 4 22 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 507.1 4 23 55.40 48.20 0.11 10.80 517.9 4 24 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 527.8 4 25 57.20 46.40 0.06 10.80 538.6 4 26 57.20 46.40 0.06 10.80 549.4 4 27 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 558.4 4 28 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 567.4 4 29 55.40 39.20 0.04 6.56 574.0 4 30 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 583.9 5 1 51.80 42.80 0.06 6.30 590.2 5 2 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 601.9 5 3 64.40 53.60 0.26 18.00 619.9 5 4 71.60 48.20 0.38 18.90 638.8 5 5 57.20 44.60 0.22 9.90 648.7 5 6 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 656.2 5 7 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 664.5 5 8 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 676.2 5 9 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 688.8 5 10 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 705.0 5 11 62.60 50.00 0.29 15.30 720.3 5 12 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 731.1 5 13 59.00 44.60 0.01 10.80 741.9 5 14 60.80 44.60 0.03 11.70 753.6 5 15 53.60 46.40 0.37 9.00 762.6 5 16 51.80 42.80 0.30 6.30 768.9 5 17 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 781.5 5 18 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 796.8 5 19 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 812.1 5 20 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 829.2 5 21 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 846.3 5 22 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 867.0 peak pheromone trap catch 5 23 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 885.0 5 24 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 898.5 5 25 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 912.9 5 26 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 933.6 5 27 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 956.1 peak female adult emergence 5 28 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 979.5 5 29 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 998.4 5 30 53.60 50.00 0.02 10.80 1009.2 peak egg laying 5 31 69.80 51.80 0.02 19.80 1029.0 6 1 62.60 55.40 0.04 18.00 1047.0 6 2 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1066.8 6 3 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1081.2 6 4 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1096.5 6 5 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1111.8 6 6 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1131.6 6 7 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1154.1 6 8 60.80 51.80 0.51 15.30 1169.4 6 9 66.20 48.20 0.06 16.20 1185.6 6 10 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1202.7 6 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1220.7 6 12 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1235.1 6 13 62.60 51.80 0.01 16.20 1251.3 6 14 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1266.6 6 15 62.60 51.80 0.14 16.20 1282.8 peak egg hatch 6 16 66.20 51.80 0.07 18.00 1300.8 6 17 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 1315.2 6 18 64.40 51.80 0.08 17.10 1332.3 6 19 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1351.2 6 20 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1365.6 6 21 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1381.8 6 22 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1397.1 6 23 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1416.0 6 24 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1440.3 6 25 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1468.2 6 26 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1488.9 6 27 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1507.8 6 28 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1528.5 6 29 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1549.2 6 30 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1571.7 7 1 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1592.4 7 2 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1613.1 7 3 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1632.9 7 4 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1652.7 7 5 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1674.3 7 6 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1697.7 7 7 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1717.5 7 8 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1740.9 7 9 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1765.2 7 10 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1785.0 7 11 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1804.8 7 12 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1825.5 7 13 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1845.3 7 14 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 1865.1 7 15 71.60 50.00 0.00 19.80 1884.9 7 16 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1905.6 7 17 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 1925.4 7 18 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1947.9 7 19 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1969.5 7 20 71.60 57.20 0.03 23.40 1992.9 7 21 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2014.5 7 22 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2041.5 7 23 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2064.0 7 24 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2086.5 peak in density large larvae 7 25 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2110.8 7 26 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2134.2 7 27 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 2154.0 7 28 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 2173.8 7 29 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2196.3 7 30 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2219.7 7 31 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2243.1 8 1 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2268.3 8 2 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2296.2 8 3 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 2326.8 8 4 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2352.9 8 5 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2375.4 8 6 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2399.7 8 7 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2422.2 8 8 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2446.5 8 9 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 2473.5 8 10 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 2498.7 8 11 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 2521.2 8 12 75.20 51.80 0.02 22.50 2543.7 8 13 69.80 53.60 0.03 20.70 2564.4 8 14 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 2583.3 8 15 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 2604.0 8 16 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2626.5 8 17 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2649.9 8 18 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2670.6 8 19 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2692.2 8 20 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2713.8 8 21 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2737.2 8 22 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2765.1 8 23 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2789.4 8 24 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2810.1 8 25 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 2829.9 8 26 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 2852.4 8 27 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 2877.6 8 28 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2905.5 8 29 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2934.3 8 30 75.20 55.40 0.06 24.30 2958.6 8 31 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2982.0 9 1 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 3005.4 9 2 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 3033.3 9 3 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 3062.1 9 4 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 3089.1 9 5 82.40 62.60 0.00 31.50 3120.6 9 6 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 3148.5 9 7 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 3173.7 9 8 68.00 59.00 0.18 22.50 3196.2 9 9 62.60 53.60 0.11 17.10 3213.3 9 10 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 3232.2 9 11 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3256.5 9 12 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 3277.2 9 13 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 3293.4 9 14 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 3310.5 9 15 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 3327.6 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KBVS data
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KBVS 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA
QA 100% ok  - show details
DateDDsEvent
 5-22-17 867peak pheromone trap catch
 5-27-17 956peak female adult emergence
 5-30-17 1009peak egg laying
 6-15-17 1283peak egg hatch
 7-24-17 2086peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)