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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.90 30.20 0.01 1.55 1.5 * START *
1 2 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 2.2
1 3 42.80 28.40 0.03 0.27 2.5
1 4 46.90 33.80 0.00 1.77 4.3
1 5 61.00 46.00 0.01 12.50 16.8
1 6 55.40 48.00 0.01 10.70 27.5
1 7 51.80 42.10 0.22 5.95 33.4
1 8 50.00 41.00 0.12 4.50 37.9
1 9 55.90 39.20 0.07 6.80 44.7
1 10 53.60 32.00 0.20 4.39 49.1
1 11 57.20 30.00 0.10 5.71 54.8
1 12 60.80 44.10 0.07 11.45 66.3
1 13 60.80 48.00 0.09 13.40 79.7
1 14 54.00 44.60 0.17 8.30 88.0
1 15 51.80 39.00 0.04 4.74 92.7
1 16 50.00 44.60 0.07 6.30 99.0
1 17 48.90 45.00 0.02 5.95 105.0
1 18 50.00 37.00 0.08 3.47 108.5
1 19 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 109.4
1 20 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 111.4
1 21 43.00 28.00 0.20 0.31 111.7
1 22 42.80 32.00 0.09 0.32 112.0
1 23 44.60 35.10 0.00 0.98 113.0
1 24 45.00 39.00 0.07 1.51 114.5
1 25 46.90 42.10 0.03 3.50 118.0
1 26 46.40 42.10 0.20 3.25 121.2
1 27 45.00 42.10 0.61 2.55 123.8
1 28 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 125.5
1 29 37.90 23.00 0.00 0.00 125.5
1 30 37.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 125.5
1 31 34.00 30.00 0.03 0.00 125.5
2 1 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 125.8
2 2 42.80 30.00 0.00 0.29 126.1
2 3 52.00 35.10 0.01 4.09 130.2
2 4 54.00 46.00 0.01 9.00 139.2
2 5 48.20 39.90 0.03 3.22 142.4
2 6 48.90 44.10 0.08 5.50 147.9
2 7 51.80 42.80 0.12 6.30 154.2
2 8 48.20 35.10 0.00 2.42 156.7
2 9 46.40 39.00 0.07 2.15 158.8
2 10 52.00 35.60 0.47 4.16 163.0
2 11 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 164.3
2 12 46.90 39.00 0.11 2.39 166.7
2 13 48.90 39.20 0.01 3.39 170.0
2 14 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 171.6
2 15 44.60 26.10 0.00 0.69 172.3
2 16 45.00 35.10 0.09 1.13 173.4
2 17 44.60 35.60 0.03 1.01 174.4
2 18 48.20 37.00 0.18 2.66 177.1
2 19 48.20 41.00 0.01 3.60 180.7
2 20 48.20 46.00 0.53 6.10 186.8
2 21 48.90 30.90 0.03 2.34 189.1
2 22 30.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 189.1
2 23 30.90 21.20 0.00 0.00 189.1
2 24 34.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 189.1
2 25 37.90 21.00 0.10 0.00 189.1
2 26 45.00 33.10 0.03 1.02 190.1
2 27 39.20 30.00 0.03 0.00 190.1
2 28 39.90 26.60 0.32 0.00 190.1
3 1 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 190.1
3 2 48.90 37.40 0.03 3.03 193.2
3 3 44.60 37.40 0.03 1.15 194.3
3 4 45.00 37.00 0.04 1.27 195.6
3 5 51.80 30.00 0.00 3.42 199.0
3 6 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 203.1
3 7 54.00 33.10 0.00 4.70 207.8
3 8 51.80 28.40 0.03 3.29 211.1
3 9 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 216.0
3 10 46.90 39.20 0.02 2.43 218.4
3 11 51.10 37.00 0.01 3.98 222.4
3 12 51.10 32.00 0.34 3.32 225.8
3 13 50.00 39.20 0.05 3.92 229.7
3 14 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 234.0
3 15 51.80 32.00 0.11 3.61 237.6
3 16 57.90 30.00 0.00 6.01 243.6
3 17 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 250.7
3 18 64.90 32.00 0.00 9.51 260.2
3 19 63.00 36.00 0.00 9.43 269.7
3 20 52.00 44.10 0.10 7.05 276.7
3 21 55.90 37.00 0.27 6.25 283.0
3 22 59.00 33.10 0.02 6.96 289.9
3 23 52.00 41.00 0.49 5.50 295.4
3 24 42.80 37.00 0.43 0.44 295.9
3 25 48.20 32.00 0.14 2.14 298.0
3 26 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 301.4
3 27 59.00 30.00 0.00 6.50 307.9
3 28 64.40 35.10 0.00 9.90 317.8
3 29 62.10 42.10 0.00 11.10 328.9
3 30 52.00 37.40 0.03 4.48 333.4
3 31 46.90 42.10 0.15 3.50 336.9
4 1 50.00 39.00 0.13 3.87 340.8
4 2 46.40 33.10 0.05 1.53 342.3
4 3 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 345.4
4 4 51.80 34.00 0.00 3.85 349.2
4 5 53.10 28.90 0.02 3.85 353.1
4 6 57.00 42.10 0.05 8.55 361.6
4 7 55.00 46.40 0.06 9.70 371.3
4 8 54.00 46.40 0.00 9.20 380.5
4 9 57.90 44.10 0.10 10.00 390.5
4 10 48.90 42.80 0.10 4.85 395.4
4 11 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 399.7
4 12 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 404.1
4 13 53.60 35.10 0.00 4.81 408.9
4 14 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 414.0
4 15 52.00 35.60 0.03 4.16 418.2
4 16 54.00 39.00 0.44 5.81 424.0
4 17 53.60 37.40 1.32 5.24 429.2
4 18 50.00 39.20 0.04 3.92 433.2
4 19 54.00 37.00 0.00 5.34 438.5
4 20 51.80 35.60 0.05 4.07 442.6
4 21 53.60 44.10 0.15 7.85 450.4
4 22 60.80 44.10 0.13 11.45 461.9
4 23 52.00 48.00 0.23 9.00 470.9
4 24 57.90 41.00 0.39 8.45 479.3
4 25 57.90 43.00 0.00 9.45 488.8
4 26 57.90 42.80 0.05 9.35 498.1
4 27 66.20 39.00 0.00 11.83 510.0
4 28 72.00 41.00 0.00 15.50 525.5
4 29 73.40 45.00 0.00 18.20 543.7
4 30 55.90 50.00 0.00 11.95 555.6
5 1 62.60 48.20 0.03 14.40 570.0
5 2 69.10 48.20 0.00 17.65 587.7
5 3 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 610.2
5 4 60.10 48.20 0.15 13.15 623.3
5 5 53.60 50.00 0.17 10.80 634.1
5 6 57.90 46.00 0.03 10.95 645.1
5 7 62.60 44.60 0.01 12.60 657.7
5 8 64.00 39.20 0.01 10.81 668.5
5 9 63.00 46.00 0.00 13.50 682.0
5 10 70.00 42.10 0.00 15.05 697.0
5 11 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 714.1
5 12 79.00 44.60 0.00 20.80 734.9
5 13 84.90 48.20 0.00 25.55 760.4
5 14 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 786.4
5 15 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 816.1
5 16 68.00 57.00 0.00 21.50 837.6
5 17 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 862.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 18 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 884.1
5 19 73.00 55.40 0.00 23.20 907.3
5 20 70.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 928.1
5 21 63.00 53.10 0.09 17.05 945.2
5 22 57.90 51.10 0.28 13.50 958.7 Peak female adult emergence
5 23 60.80 51.10 0.00 14.95 973.6
5 24 69.80 46.00 0.00 16.90 990.5
5 25 73.40 46.00 0.00 18.70 1009.2 Peak egg laying
5 26 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1033.3
5 27 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1052.2
5 28 64.40 53.10 0.00 17.75 1069.9
5 29 64.40 51.10 0.00 16.75 1086.7
5 30 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1102.0
5 31 63.00 48.00 0.00 14.50 1116.5
6 1 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1132.1
6 2 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1147.8
6 3 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1163.1
6 4 66.90 48.00 0.00 16.45 1179.5
6 5 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1198.4
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1198.
QA 100% ok
| |
| This year is about | versus | QA |
| 10 days ahead | 2022 | ok |
| same day | 2021 | ok |
| 15 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 6 71.00 49.00 0.00 19.00 1217.4 Sunny
6 7 79.00 53.00 0.00 25.00 1242.4 Sunny
6 8 80.00 56.00 0.00 27.00 1269.4 Partly_Cloudy
6 9 76.00 56.00 0.00 25.00 1294.4 Mostly_Cloudy_6%_precip Peak egg hatch
6 10 69.00 54.00 0.00 20.50 1314.9 Mostly_Cloudy_19%_precip
6 11 69.00 53.00 0.00 20.00 1334.9 Partly_Cloudy_11%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 67.80 50.40 0.02 18.10 1353.0 *hist_fcst*
6 13 66.90 51.70 0.11 18.30 1371.3 *hist_fcst*
6 14 64.80 51.50 0.07 17.15 1388.5 *hist_fcst*
6 15 64.00 49.90 0.04 15.95 1404.4 *hist_fcst*
6 16 66.40 50.10 0.10 17.25 1421.7 *hist_fcst*
6 17 67.60 51.40 0.07 18.50 1440.2 *hist_fcst*
6 18 69.40 51.90 0.02 19.65 1459.8 *hist_fcst*
6 19 67.40 53.30 0.06 19.35 1479.2 *hist_fcst*
6 20 68.50 52.00 0.05 19.25 1498.4 *hist_fcst*
6 21 69.10 51.90 0.07 19.50 1517.9 *hist_fcst*
6 22 69.60 51.80 0.00 19.70 1537.6 *hist_fcst*
6 23 68.90 52.40 0.08 19.65 1557.3 *hist_fcst*
6 24 69.60 53.10 0.08 20.35 1577.6 *hist_fcst*
6 25 70.80 52.80 0.03 20.80 1598.4 *hist_fcst*
6 26 74.60 53.50 0.02 23.05 1621.5 *hist_fcst*
6 27 73.30 55.50 0.07 23.40 1644.9 *hist_fcst*
6 28 73.10 55.90 0.05 23.50 1668.4 *hist_fcst*
6 29 73.50 56.30 0.01 23.90 1692.3 *hist_fcst*
6 30 73.00 56.10 0.02 23.55 1715.8 *hist_fcst*
7 1 71.60 55.50 0.02 22.55 1738.4 *hist_fcst*
7 2 71.60 55.50 0.03 22.55 1760.9 *hist_fcst*
7 3 69.00 56.00 0.05 21.50 1782.4 *hist_fcst*
7 4 69.60 54.30 0.10 20.95 1803.4 *hist_fcst*
7 5 71.80 53.30 0.00 21.55 1824.9 *hist_fcst*
7 6 73.00 53.70 0.01 22.35 1847.3 *hist_fcst*
7 7 73.90 55.40 0.02 23.65 1870.9 *hist_fcst*
7 8 70.10 55.20 0.02 21.65 1892.6 *hist_fcst*
7 9 74.50 55.70 0.04 24.10 1916.7 *hist_fcst*
7 10 72.60 56.00 0.03 23.30 1940.0 *hist_fcst*
7 11 70.30 55.80 0.03 22.05 1962.0 *hist_fcst*
7 12 71.30 54.50 0.01 21.90 1983.9 *hist_fcst*
7 13 73.60 55.10 0.02 23.35 2007.3 *hist_fcst*
7 14 73.90 54.80 0.00 23.35 2030.6 *hist_fcst*
7 15 74.30 54.50 0.00 23.40 2054.0 *hist_fcst*
7 16 73.40 55.50 0.00 23.45 2077.5 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 17 75.50 55.70 0.01 24.60 2102.1 *hist_fcst*
7 18 73.80 56.50 0.01 24.15 2126.2 *hist_fcst*
7 19 73.80 56.00 0.00 23.90 2150.1 *hist_fcst*
7 20 73.90 57.00 0.01 24.45 2174.6 *hist_fcst*
7 21 71.30 55.10 0.02 22.20 2196.8 *hist_fcst*
7 22 73.00 54.60 0.00 22.80 2219.6 *hist_fcst*
7 23 71.60 55.60 0.04 22.60 2242.2 *hist_fcst*
7 24 71.50 55.30 0.10 22.40 2264.6 *hist_fcst*
7 25 73.30 53.60 0.06 22.45 2287.0 *hist_fcst*
7 26 75.80 54.30 0.00 24.05 2311.1 *hist_fcst*
7 27 74.50 55.00 0.00 23.75 2334.8 *hist_fcst*
7 28 74.80 55.50 0.00 24.15 2359.0 *hist_fcst*
7 29 76.00 54.60 0.00 24.30 2383.3 *hist_fcst*
7 30 78.90 55.60 0.00 26.25 2409.5 *hist_fcst*
7 31 77.80 56.50 0.00 26.15 2435.7 *hist_fcst*
8 1 74.70 56.20 0.00 24.45 2460.1 *hist_fcst*
8 2 74.20 56.90 0.01 24.55 2484.7 *hist_fcst*
8 3 73.50 56.60 0.02 24.05 2508.7 *hist_fcst*
8 4 75.90 55.10 0.00 24.50 2533.2 *hist_fcst*
8 5 79.00 56.20 0.00 26.60 2559.8 *hist_fcst*
8 6 74.80 57.40 0.01 25.10 2584.9 *hist_fcst*
8 7 73.00 56.30 0.05 23.65 2608.6 *hist_fcst*
8 8 72.90 55.60 0.02 23.25 2631.8 *hist_fcst*
8 9 73.40 55.70 0.01 23.55 2655.4 *hist_fcst*
8 10 75.90 55.20 0.00 24.55 2679.9 *hist_fcst*
8 11 76.10 55.70 0.01 24.90 2704.8 *hist_fcst*
8 12 75.30 56.40 0.01 24.85 2729.7 *hist_fcst*
8 13 77.80 56.30 0.04 26.05 2755.7 *hist_fcst*
8 14 76.10 55.70 0.02 24.90 2780.6 *hist_fcst*
8 15 74.60 55.00 0.04 23.80 2804.4 *hist_fcst*
8 16 75.60 55.80 0.00 24.70 2829.1 *hist_fcst*
8 17 75.30 56.30 0.01 24.80 2853.9 *hist_fcst*
8 18 74.70 55.90 0.00 24.30 2878.2 *hist_fcst*
8 19 74.30 55.30 0.00 23.80 2902.0 *hist_fcst*
8 20 75.10 55.00 0.01 24.05 2926.1 *hist_fcst*
8 21 74.50 54.50 0.01 23.50 2949.6 *hist_fcst*
8 22 71.50 53.90 0.05 21.70 2971.3 *hist_fcst*
8 23 73.00 52.00 0.00 21.50 2992.8 *hist_fcst*
8 24 71.10 52.20 0.02 20.65 3013.4 *hist_fcst*
8 25 71.40 51.20 0.00 20.30 3033.7 *hist_fcst*
8 26 73.10 51.00 0.01 21.05 3054.8 *hist_fcst*
8 27 73.70 53.20 0.03 22.45 3077.2 *hist_fcst*
8 28 74.90 53.70 0.05 23.30 3100.5 *hist_fcst*
8 29 73.10 54.60 0.04 22.85 3123.4 *hist_fcst*
8 30 71.90 55.30 0.08 22.60 3146.0 *hist_fcst*
8 31 69.60 55.80 0.03 21.70 3167.7 *hist_fcst*
9 1 68.80 53.90 0.11 20.35 3188.0 *hist_fcst*
9 2 70.50 52.20 0.05 20.35 3208.4 *hist_fcst*
9 3 70.90 52.30 0.14 20.60 3229.0 *hist_fcst*
9 4 71.10 49.90 0.05 19.50 3248.5 *hist_fcst*
9 5 72.40 49.40 0.02 19.90 3268.4 *hist_fcst*
9 6 71.20 51.50 0.07 20.35 3288.7 *hist_fcst*
9 7 72.70 53.00 0.03 21.85 3310.6 *hist_fcst*
9 8 72.40 53.30 0.08 21.85 3332.4 *hist_fcst*
9 9 70.80 53.80 0.04 21.30 3353.7 *hist_fcst*
9 10 70.20 52.20 0.07 20.20 3373.9 *hist_fcst*
9 11 71.00 52.30 0.00 20.65 3394.6 *hist_fcst*
9 12 71.00 50.80 0.04 19.90 3414.5 *hist_fcst*
9 13 69.20 49.50 0.10 18.35 3432.8 *hist_fcst*
9 14 67.90 49.40 0.03 17.65 3450.5 *hist_fcst*
9 15 68.30 49.40 0.11 17.85 3468.3 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1198. QA 100% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | | | This year is about | versus | QA | | 10 days ahead | 2022 | ok | | same day | 2021 | ok | | 15 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
| Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-17-23 | 863 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-22-23 | 959 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-25-23 | 1009 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-9-23 | 1294 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-16-23 | 2077 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?31858)
