Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight 1988


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight 1988 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2023 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 46.90 30.20 0.01 1.55 1.5 * START * 1 2 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 2.2 1 3 42.80 28.40 0.03 0.27 2.5 1 4 46.90 33.80 0.00 1.77 4.3 1 5 61.00 46.00 0.01 12.50 16.8 1 6 55.40 48.00 0.01 10.70 27.5 1 7 51.80 42.10 0.22 5.95 33.4 1 8 50.00 41.00 0.12 4.50 37.9 1 9 55.90 39.20 0.07 6.80 44.7 1 10 53.60 32.00 0.20 4.39 49.1 1 11 57.20 30.00 0.10 5.71 54.8 1 12 60.80 44.10 0.07 11.45 66.3 1 13 60.80 48.00 0.09 13.40 79.7 1 14 54.00 44.60 0.17 8.30 88.0 1 15 51.80 39.00 0.04 4.74 92.7 1 16 50.00 44.60 0.07 6.30 99.0 1 17 48.90 45.00 0.02 5.95 105.0 1 18 50.00 37.00 0.08 3.47 108.5 1 19 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 109.4 1 20 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 111.4 1 21 43.00 28.00 0.20 0.31 111.7 1 22 42.80 32.00 0.09 0.32 112.0 1 23 44.60 35.10 0.00 0.98 113.0 1 24 45.00 39.00 0.07 1.51 114.5 1 25 46.90 42.10 0.03 3.50 118.0 1 26 46.40 42.10 0.20 3.25 121.2 1 27 45.00 42.10 0.61 2.55 123.8 1 28 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 125.5 1 29 37.90 23.00 0.00 0.00 125.5 1 30 37.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 125.5 1 31 34.00 30.00 0.03 0.00 125.5 2 1 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 125.8 2 2 42.80 30.00 0.00 0.29 126.1 2 3 52.00 35.10 0.01 4.09 130.2 2 4 54.00 46.00 0.01 9.00 139.2 2 5 48.20 39.90 0.03 3.22 142.4 2 6 48.90 44.10 0.08 5.50 147.9 2 7 51.80 42.80 0.12 6.30 154.2 2 8 48.20 35.10 0.00 2.42 156.7 2 9 46.40 39.00 0.07 2.15 158.8 2 10 52.00 35.60 0.47 4.16 163.0 2 11 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 164.3 2 12 46.90 39.00 0.11 2.39 166.7 2 13 48.90 39.20 0.01 3.39 170.0 2 14 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 171.6 2 15 44.60 26.10 0.00 0.69 172.3 2 16 45.00 35.10 0.09 1.13 173.4 2 17 44.60 35.60 0.03 1.01 174.4 2 18 48.20 37.00 0.18 2.66 177.1 2 19 48.20 41.00 0.01 3.60 180.7 2 20 48.20 46.00 0.53 6.10 186.8 2 21 48.90 30.90 0.03 2.34 189.1 2 22 30.90 26.10 0.00 0.00 189.1 2 23 30.90 21.20 0.00 0.00 189.1 2 24 34.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 189.1 2 25 37.90 21.00 0.10 0.00 189.1 2 26 45.00 33.10 0.03 1.02 190.1 2 27 39.20 30.00 0.03 0.00 190.1 2 28 39.90 26.60 0.32 0.00 190.1 3 1 41.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 190.1 3 2 48.90 37.40 0.03 3.03 193.2 3 3 44.60 37.40 0.03 1.15 194.3 3 4 45.00 37.00 0.04 1.27 195.6 3 5 51.80 30.00 0.00 3.42 199.0 3 6 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 203.1 3 7 54.00 33.10 0.00 4.70 207.8 3 8 51.80 28.40 0.03 3.29 211.1 3 9 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 216.0 3 10 46.90 39.20 0.02 2.43 218.4 3 11 51.10 37.00 0.01 3.98 222.4 3 12 51.10 32.00 0.34 3.32 225.8 3 13 50.00 39.20 0.05 3.92 229.7 3 14 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 234.0 3 15 51.80 32.00 0.11 3.61 237.6 3 16 57.90 30.00 0.00 6.01 243.6 3 17 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 250.7 3 18 64.90 32.00 0.00 9.51 260.2 3 19 63.00 36.00 0.00 9.43 269.7 3 20 52.00 44.10 0.10 7.05 276.7 3 21 55.90 37.00 0.27 6.25 283.0 3 22 59.00 33.10 0.02 6.96 289.9 3 23 52.00 41.00 0.49 5.50 295.4 3 24 42.80 37.00 0.43 0.44 295.9 3 25 48.20 32.00 0.14 2.14 298.0 3 26 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 301.4 3 27 59.00 30.00 0.00 6.50 307.9 3 28 64.40 35.10 0.00 9.90 317.8 3 29 62.10 42.10 0.00 11.10 328.9 3 30 52.00 37.40 0.03 4.48 333.4 3 31 46.90 42.10 0.15 3.50 336.9 4 1 50.00 39.00 0.13 3.87 340.8 4 2 46.40 33.10 0.05 1.53 342.3 4 3 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 345.4 4 4 51.80 34.00 0.00 3.85 349.2 4 5 53.10 28.90 0.02 3.85 353.1 4 6 57.00 42.10 0.05 8.55 361.6 4 7 55.00 46.40 0.06 9.70 371.3 4 8 54.00 46.40 0.00 9.20 380.5 4 9 57.90 44.10 0.10 10.00 390.5 4 10 48.90 42.80 0.10 4.85 395.4 4 11 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 399.7 4 12 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 404.1 4 13 53.60 35.10 0.00 4.81 408.9 4 14 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 414.0 4 15 52.00 35.60 0.03 4.16 418.2 4 16 54.00 39.00 0.44 5.81 424.0 4 17 53.60 37.40 1.32 5.24 429.2 4 18 50.00 39.20 0.04 3.92 433.2 4 19 54.00 37.00 0.00 5.34 438.5 4 20 51.80 35.60 0.05 4.07 442.6 4 21 53.60 44.10 0.15 7.85 450.4 4 22 60.80 44.10 0.13 11.45 461.9 4 23 52.00 48.00 0.23 9.00 470.9 4 24 57.90 41.00 0.39 8.45 479.3 4 25 57.90 43.00 0.00 9.45 488.8 4 26 57.90 42.80 0.05 9.35 498.1 4 27 66.20 39.00 0.00 11.83 510.0 4 28 72.00 41.00 0.00 15.50 525.5 4 29 73.40 45.00 0.00 18.20 543.7 4 30 55.90 50.00 0.00 11.95 555.6 5 1 62.60 48.20 0.03 14.40 570.0 5 2 69.10 48.20 0.00 17.65 587.7 5 3 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 610.2 5 4 60.10 48.20 0.15 13.15 623.3 5 5 53.60 50.00 0.17 10.80 634.1 5 6 57.90 46.00 0.03 10.95 645.1 5 7 62.60 44.60 0.01 12.60 657.7 5 8 64.00 39.20 0.01 10.81 668.5 5 9 63.00 46.00 0.00 13.50 682.0 5 10 70.00 42.10 0.00 15.05 697.0 5 11 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 714.1 5 12 79.00 44.60 0.00 20.80 734.9 5 13 84.90 48.20 0.00 25.55 760.4 5 14 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 786.4 5 15 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 816.1 5 16 68.00 57.00 0.00 21.50 837.6 5 17 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 862.6 Peak pheromone trap catch 5 18 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 884.1 5 19 73.00 55.40 0.00 23.20 907.3 5 20 70.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 928.1 5 21 63.00 53.10 0.09 17.05 945.2 5 22 57.90 51.10 0.28 13.50 958.7 Peak female adult emergence 5 23 60.80 51.10 0.00 14.95 973.6 5 24 69.80 46.00 0.00 16.90 990.5 5 25 73.40 46.00 0.00 18.70 1009.2 Peak egg laying 5 26 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1033.3 5 27 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1052.2 5 28 64.40 53.10 0.00 17.75 1069.9 5 29 64.40 51.10 0.00 16.75 1086.7 5 30 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1102.0 5 31 63.00 48.00 0.00 14.50 1116.5 6 1 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1132.1 6 2 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 1147.8 6 3 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1163.1 6 4 66.90 48.00 0.00 16.45 1179.5 6 5 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1198.4
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1198QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 10 days ahead 2022 ok
 same day 2021 ok
 15 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
  6  6  71.00 49.00  0.00  19.00   1217.4  Sunny    
  6  7  79.00 53.00  0.00  25.00   1242.4  Sunny    
  6  8  80.00 56.00  0.00  27.00   1269.4  Partly_Cloudy    
  6  9  76.00 56.00  0.00  25.00   1294.4  Mostly_Cloudy_6%_precip   Peak egg hatch
  6 10  69.00 54.00  0.00  20.50   1314.9  Mostly_Cloudy_19%_precip    
  6 11  69.00 53.00  0.00  20.00   1334.9  Partly_Cloudy_11%_precip    
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
  6 12  67.80 50.40  0.02  18.10   1353.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  66.90 51.70  0.11  18.30   1371.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  64.80 51.50  0.07  17.15   1388.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  64.00 49.90  0.04  15.95   1404.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  66.40 50.10  0.10  17.25   1421.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  67.60 51.40  0.07  18.50   1440.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  69.40 51.90  0.02  19.65   1459.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  67.40 53.30  0.06  19.35   1479.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  68.50 52.00  0.05  19.25   1498.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  69.10 51.90  0.07  19.50   1517.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  69.60 51.80  0.00  19.70   1537.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  68.90 52.40  0.08  19.65   1557.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  69.60 53.10  0.08  20.35   1577.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  70.80 52.80  0.03  20.80   1598.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  74.60 53.50  0.02  23.05   1621.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  73.30 55.50  0.07  23.40   1644.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  73.10 55.90  0.05  23.50   1668.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  73.50 56.30  0.01  23.90   1692.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  73.00 56.10  0.02  23.55   1715.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  71.60 55.50  0.02  22.55   1738.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  71.60 55.50  0.03  22.55   1760.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  69.00 56.00  0.05  21.50   1782.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  69.60 54.30  0.10  20.95   1803.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  71.80 53.30  0.00  21.55   1824.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  73.00 53.70  0.01  22.35   1847.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  73.90 55.40  0.02  23.65   1870.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  70.10 55.20  0.02  21.65   1892.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  74.50 55.70  0.04  24.10   1916.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  72.60 56.00  0.03  23.30   1940.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  70.30 55.80  0.03  22.05   1962.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  71.30 54.50  0.01  21.90   1983.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  73.60 55.10  0.02  23.35   2007.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  73.90 54.80  0.00  23.35   2030.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  74.30 54.50  0.00  23.40   2054.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  73.40 55.50  0.00  23.45   2077.5  *hist_fcst*   Peak in density large larvae
  7 17  75.50 55.70  0.01  24.60   2102.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  73.80 56.50  0.01  24.15   2126.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  73.80 56.00  0.00  23.90   2150.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  73.90 57.00  0.01  24.45   2174.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  71.30 55.10  0.02  22.20   2196.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  73.00 54.60  0.00  22.80   2219.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  71.60 55.60  0.04  22.60   2242.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  71.50 55.30  0.10  22.40   2264.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  73.30 53.60  0.06  22.45   2287.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  75.80 54.30  0.00  24.05   2311.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  74.50 55.00  0.00  23.75   2334.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  74.80 55.50  0.00  24.15   2359.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  76.00 54.60  0.00  24.30   2383.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  78.90 55.60  0.00  26.25   2409.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  77.80 56.50  0.00  26.15   2435.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  74.70 56.20  0.00  24.45   2460.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  74.20 56.90  0.01  24.55   2484.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  73.50 56.60  0.02  24.05   2508.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  75.90 55.10  0.00  24.50   2533.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  79.00 56.20  0.00  26.60   2559.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  74.80 57.40  0.01  25.10   2584.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  73.00 56.30  0.05  23.65   2608.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  72.90 55.60  0.02  23.25   2631.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  73.40 55.70  0.01  23.55   2655.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  75.90 55.20  0.00  24.55   2679.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  76.10 55.70  0.01  24.90   2704.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  75.30 56.40  0.01  24.85   2729.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  77.80 56.30  0.04  26.05   2755.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  76.10 55.70  0.02  24.90   2780.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  74.60 55.00  0.04  23.80   2804.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  75.60 55.80  0.00  24.70   2829.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  75.30 56.30  0.01  24.80   2853.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  74.70 55.90  0.00  24.30   2878.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  74.30 55.30  0.00  23.80   2902.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  75.10 55.00  0.01  24.05   2926.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  74.50 54.50  0.01  23.50   2949.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  71.50 53.90  0.05  21.70   2971.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  73.00 52.00  0.00  21.50   2992.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  71.10 52.20  0.02  20.65   3013.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  71.40 51.20  0.00  20.30   3033.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  73.10 51.00  0.01  21.05   3054.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  73.70 53.20  0.03  22.45   3077.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  74.90 53.70  0.05  23.30   3100.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  73.10 54.60  0.04  22.85   3123.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  71.90 55.30  0.08  22.60   3146.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  69.60 55.80  0.03  21.70   3167.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  68.80 53.90  0.11  20.35   3188.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  70.50 52.20  0.05  20.35   3208.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  70.90 52.30  0.14  20.60   3229.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  71.10 49.90  0.05  19.50   3248.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  72.40 49.40  0.02  19.90   3268.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  71.20 51.50  0.07  20.35   3288.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  72.70 53.00  0.03  21.85   3310.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  72.40 53.30  0.08  21.85   3332.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  70.80 53.80  0.04  21.30   3353.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  70.20 52.20  0.07  20.20   3373.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  71.00 52.30  0.00  20.65   3394.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  71.00 50.80  0.04  19.90   3414.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  69.20 49.50  0.10  18.35   3432.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  67.90 49.40  0.03  17.65   3450.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  68.30 49.40  0.11  17.85   3468.3  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988
Location: 2023 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1198 QA 100% ok  - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME  
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 10 days ahead 2022 ok
 same day 2021 ok
 15 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-17-23 863Peak pheromone trap catch
 5-22-23 959Peak female adult emergence
 5-25-23 1009Peak egg laying
 6-9-23 1294Peak egg hatch
 7-16-23 2077Peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988