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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 41.00 6.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 46.40 39.20 0.02 2.19 2.2
1 3 44.60 35.10 0.09 0.98 3.2
1 4 41.00 26.10 0.08 0.00 3.2
1 5 27.00 23.00 0.01 0.00 3.2
1 6 35.60 23.00 0.06 0.00 3.2
1 7 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 4.9
1 8 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 5.6
1 9 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 7.2
1 10 55.40 27.00 0.00 4.62 11.8
1 11 55.40 50.00 2.64 11.70 23.5
1 12 60.10 42.10 0.64 10.10 33.6
1 13 55.00 37.90 0.11 6.02 39.6
1 14 51.80 37.40 0.04 4.38 44.0
1 15 45.00 41.00 0.26 2.00 46.0
1 16 45.00 39.00 0.00 1.51 47.5
1 17 44.60 39.00 0.29 1.33 48.8
1 18 46.40 42.80 0.13 3.60 52.4
1 19 50.00 42.10 0.47 5.05 57.5
1 20 53.60 42.80 0.12 7.20 64.7
1 21 46.90 39.00 0.00 2.39 67.1
1 22 48.20 30.90 0.00 2.07 69.1
1 23 37.90 30.00 0.00 0.00 69.1
1 24 39.20 34.00 0.00 0.00 69.1
1 25 36.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 69.1
1 26 42.10 30.00 0.00 0.14 69.3
1 27 48.90 26.10 0.00 2.05 71.3
1 28 46.90 26.10 0.00 1.38 72.7
1 29 43.00 26.60 0.03 0.30 73.0
1 30 51.80 37.40 0.28 4.38 77.4
1 31 46.40 33.10 0.09 1.53 78.9
2 1 44.60 30.00 0.03 0.78 79.7
2 2 36.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 79.7
2 3 41.00 33.10 0.26 0.00 79.7
2 4 48.20 37.40 0.05 2.72 82.4
2 5 48.20 39.00 0.00 3.00 85.4
2 6 52.00 33.10 0.00 3.82 89.2
2 7 50.00 35.10 0.01 3.20 92.4
2 8 46.90 42.80 0.01 3.85 96.3
2 9 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 101.7
2 10 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 106.2
2 11 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 110.6
2 12 52.00 28.00 0.00 3.33 113.9
2 13 55.90 28.00 0.00 4.93 118.8
2 14 50.00 39.00 0.01 3.87 122.7
2 15 48.20 42.10 0.00 4.15 126.9
2 16 48.90 35.60 0.00 2.78 129.6
2 17 46.40 42.10 0.00 3.25 132.9
2 18 51.80 37.00 0.00 4.31 137.2
2 19 46.90 41.00 0.20 2.95 140.1
2 20 46.40 37.00 0.12 1.86 142.0
2 21 39.90 26.10 0.07 0.00 142.0
2 22 32.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 142.0
2 23 35.60 19.40 0.03 0.00 142.0
2 24 41.00 21.20 0.17 0.00 142.0
2 25 45.00 21.00 0.00 0.71 142.7
2 26 51.10 24.80 0.04 2.77 145.5
2 27 53.60 46.40 0.40 9.00 154.5
2 28 51.80 42.10 0.18 5.95 160.4
3 1 57.20 44.10 0.08 9.65 170.1
3 2 53.60 42.80 0.12 7.20 177.3
3 3 50.00 39.00 0.47 3.87 181.2
3 4 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 185.2
3 5 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 189.4
3 6 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 193.3
3 7 48.90 35.60 0.00 2.78 196.1
3 8 55.00 39.20 0.00 6.36 202.5
3 9 48.20 27.00 0.00 1.85 204.3
3 10 45.00 26.60 0.00 0.81 205.1
3 11 45.00 35.60 0.13 1.16 206.3
3 12 51.10 39.00 0.15 4.40 210.7
3 13 55.40 41.00 0.09 7.20 217.9
3 14 51.80 44.10 0.36 6.95 224.8
3 15 51.10 44.60 0.18 6.85 231.7
3 16 52.00 41.00 0.00 5.50 237.2
3 17 46.90 41.00 0.78 2.95 240.1
3 18 53.60 42.10 0.12 6.85 247.0
3 19 52.00 42.10 0.10 6.05 253.0
3 20 46.90 39.00 0.26 2.39 255.4
3 21 48.20 41.00 0.39 3.60 259.0
3 22 55.90 44.60 0.02 9.25 268.3
3 23 51.80 44.10 0.20 6.95 275.2
3 24 59.00 34.00 0.00 7.12 282.3
3 25 55.90 39.00 0.00 6.75 289.1
3 26 55.40 44.10 0.01 8.75 297.8
3 27 60.80 48.00 0.01 13.40 311.2
3 28 55.40 42.80 0.14 8.10 319.3
3 29 57.20 37.40 0.11 6.96 326.3
3 30 54.00 43.00 0.09 7.50 333.8
3 31 53.60 42.10 0.83 6.85 340.6
4 1 52.00 41.00 0.09 5.50 346.1
4 2 54.00 42.80 0.01 7.40 353.5
4 3 54.00 46.40 0.23 9.20 362.7
4 4 50.00 42.10 0.12 5.05 367.8
4 5 52.00 39.00 0.00 4.84 372.6
4 6 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 378.9
4 7 68.00 37.40 0.19 12.23 391.2
4 8 55.90 44.10 0.01 9.00 400.2
4 9 51.10 39.20 0.00 4.45 404.6
4 10 48.20 34.00 0.30 2.31 406.9
4 11 55.90 33.80 0.01 5.66 412.6
4 12 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 415.3
4 13 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 418.9
4 14 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 422.4
4 15 52.00 33.10 0.00 3.82 426.2
4 16 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 429.7
4 17 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 437.2
4 18 55.90 43.00 0.09 8.45 445.6
4 19 54.00 35.10 0.04 5.00 450.6
4 20 59.00 46.00 0.02 11.50 462.1
4 21 57.20 41.00 0.03 8.10 470.2
4 22 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 479.2
4 23 60.80 37.90 0.00 8.84 488.1
4 24 64.90 37.00 0.06 10.60 498.7
4 25 57.20 46.40 0.03 10.80 509.5
4 26 55.40 39.00 0.00 6.50 516.0
4 27 55.90 37.40 0.00 6.34 522.3
4 28 55.90 41.00 0.00 7.45 529.8
4 29 60.80 44.10 0.04 11.45 541.2
4 30 60.80 43.00 0.08 10.90 552.1
5 1 61.00 39.20 0.12 9.32 561.4
5 2 54.00 50.00 0.30 11.00 572.4
5 3 54.00 48.00 0.06 10.00 582.4
5 4 55.90 46.00 0.27 9.95 592.4
5 5 52.00 46.40 0.37 8.20 600.6
5 6 55.90 44.10 0.02 9.00 609.6
5 7 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 617.7
5 8 54.00 41.00 0.00 6.50 624.2
5 9 55.40 42.80 0.01 8.10 632.3
5 10 57.90 46.00 0.00 10.95 643.2
5 11 57.90 44.10 0.00 10.00 653.2
5 12 57.90 44.60 0.26 10.25 663.5
5 13 57.20 44.10 0.03 9.65 673.1
5 14 62.60 44.60 0.03 12.60 685.7
5 15 61.00 50.00 0.63 14.50 700.2
5 16 57.20 50.00 0.05 12.60 712.8
5 17 59.00 44.60 0.04 10.80 723.6
5 18 59.00 46.90 0.04 11.95 735.6
5 19 57.90 44.10 0.00 10.00 745.6
5 20 62.10 37.90 0.00 9.48 755.1
5 21 66.20 39.20 0.00 11.90 767.0
5 22 69.80 42.10 0.00 14.95 781.9
5 23 62.60 51.80 0.01 16.20 798.1
5 24 60.80 48.00 0.09 13.40 811.5
5 25 64.90 51.10 0.02 17.00 828.5
5 26 64.90 48.00 0.34 15.45 844.0
5 27 61.00 51.10 0.15 15.05 859.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 28 61.00 50.00 0.07 14.50 873.5
5 29 62.60 50.00 0.05 15.30 888.8
5 30 61.00 48.20 0.09 13.60 902.4
5 31 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 921.3
6 1 70.00 46.40 0.08 17.20 938.5
6 2 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 961.0 Peak female adult emergence
6 3 63.00 55.00 0.77 18.00 979.0
6 4 71.60 57.00 0.09 23.30 1002.3 Peak egg laying
6 5 68.00 51.80 0.57 18.90 1021.2
6 6 63.00 46.90 0.04 13.95 1035.2
6 7 73.40 44.60 0.07 18.00 1053.2
6 8 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1073.0
6 9 61.00 53.10 1.05 16.05 1089.0
6 10 69.80 57.00 0.25 22.40 1111.4
6 11 68.00 55.00 0.43 20.50 1131.9
6 12 62.60 53.60 0.08 17.10 1149.0
6 13 62.60 51.80 0.02 16.20 1165.2
6 14 63.00 51.10 0.11 16.05 1181.3
6 15 62.60 53.10 0.01 16.85 1198.1
6 16 69.10 50.00 0.00 18.55 1216.7
6 17 66.00 48.20 0.01 16.10 1232.8
6 18 62.60 53.60 0.01 17.10 1249.9
6 19 62.60 53.60 0.01 17.10 1267.0
6 20 64.40 53.10 0.00 17.75 1284.7 Peak egg hatch
6 21 66.90 55.00 0.09 19.95 1304.7
6 22 69.80 55.00 0.22 21.40 1326.1
6 23 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1343.2
6 24 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 1361.4
6 25 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 1386.9
6 26 84.20 53.10 0.00 27.65 1414.5
6 27 84.90 55.90 0.00 29.40 1443.9
6 28 66.20 57.20 0.01 20.70 1464.6
6 29 66.90 55.00 0.00 19.95 1484.6
6 30 73.40 48.90 0.00 20.15 1504.7
7 1 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1526.3
7 2 66.20 53.10 0.00 18.65 1545.0
7 3 60.80 55.00 0.28 16.90 1561.9
7 4 68.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1582.4
7 5 73.90 53.60 0.00 22.75 1605.1
7 6 75.20 59.00 0.02 26.10 1631.2
7 7 72.00 59.00 0.22 24.50 1655.7
7 8 71.60 57.90 0.00 23.75 1679.5
7 9 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 1702.2
7 10 73.40 55.90 0.00 23.65 1725.8
7 11 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1752.8
7 12 72.00 57.90 0.00 23.95 1776.8
7 13 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 1800.2
7 14 72.00 53.60 0.00 21.80 1822.0
7 15 70.00 59.00 0.01 23.50 1845.5
7 16 69.80 60.10 0.00 23.95 1869.5
7 17 66.20 57.00 0.00 20.60 1890.1
7 18 66.90 54.00 0.01 19.45 1909.5
7 19 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1932.0
7 20 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 1958.8
7 21 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 1984.0
7 22 70.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 2006.6
7 23 71.60 52.00 0.00 20.80 2027.4
7 24 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 2052.4
7 25 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 2081.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 26 90.00 60.10 0.00 34.05 2115.4
7 27 81.00 62.10 0.00 30.55 2145.9
7 28 86.00 60.10 0.00 32.05 2178.0
7 29 91.00 60.80 0.00 34.90 2212.9
7 30 86.00 62.10 0.00 33.05 2245.9
7 31 89.60 60.80 0.00 34.20 2280.1
8 1 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 2305.7
8 2 72.00 59.00 0.00 24.50 2330.2
8 3 68.00 57.00 0.25 21.50 2351.7
8 4 69.80 55.00 0.02 21.40 2373.1
8 5 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 2393.8
8 6 80.60 51.10 0.00 24.85 2418.6
8 7 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 2445.6
8 8 82.90 60.10 0.00 30.50 2476.1
8 9 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2502.2
8 10 70.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 2524.8
8 11 78.80 55.90 0.00 26.35 2551.2
8 12 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2574.6
8 13 75.00 57.20 0.00 25.10 2599.7
8 14 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2624.0
8 15 79.00 53.60 0.00 25.30 2649.3
8 16 81.00 57.90 0.00 28.45 2677.7
8 17 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 2706.3
8 18 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 2738.7
8 19 80.10 64.00 0.00 31.05 2769.8
8 20 73.90 62.10 0.00 27.00 2796.8
8 21 75.90 62.10 0.00 28.00 2824.8
8 22 78.80 57.00 0.00 26.90 2851.7
8 23 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 2877.1
8 24 82.90 55.40 0.00 28.15 2905.3
8 25 80.10 62.10 0.00 30.10 2935.4
8 26 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2958.8
8 27 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2980.4
8 28 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 3005.8
8 29 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 3031.8
8 30 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 3060.3
8 31 79.00 57.20 0.01 27.10 3087.4
9 1 72.00 57.90 0.00 23.95 3111.4
9 2 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 3135.7
9 3 72.00 55.90 0.00 22.95 3158.6
9 4 71.60 55.40 0.01 22.50 3181.1
9 5 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 3201.1
9 6 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 3220.7
9 7 73.90 55.40 0.00 23.65 3244.4
9 8 73.00 48.20 0.00 19.60 3264.0
9 9 82.90 46.00 0.00 23.45 3287.4
9 10 79.00 46.40 0.00 21.70 3309.1
9 11 77.00 51.10 0.00 23.05 3332.2
9 12 71.60 55.00 0.00 22.30 3354.5
9 13 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 3373.9
9 14 66.20 55.00 0.00 19.60 3393.5
9 15 64.90 57.00 0.00 19.95 3413.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-27-22 | 859 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 6-2-22 | 961 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 6-4-22 | 1002 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-20-22 | 1285 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-25-22 | 2081 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3292)
