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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 57.20 46.40 0.07 10.80 10.8 * START *
1 2 51.80 44.60 0.63 7.20 18.0
1 3 48.00 39.90 0.14 3.12 21.1
1 4 54.00 42.10 0.39 7.05 28.2
1 5 52.00 37.90 0.30 4.58 32.8
1 6 50.00 39.00 0.34 3.87 36.6
1 7 46.90 33.10 0.00 1.72 38.3
1 8 48.90 32.00 0.27 2.42 40.8
1 9 46.40 28.40 0.02 1.30 42.1
1 10 54.00 41.00 0.03 6.50 48.6
1 11 55.40 46.40 0.56 9.90 58.5
1 12 60.10 51.80 1.92 14.95 73.4
1 13 57.20 35.10 1.76 6.48 79.9
1 14 54.00 35.10 0.09 5.00 84.9
1 15 54.00 35.10 0.62 5.00 89.9
1 16 46.40 33.80 0.04 1.58 91.5
1 17 48.90 42.10 0.09 4.50 96.0
1 18 48.90 32.00 0.00 2.42 98.4
1 19 46.90 30.20 0.00 1.55 99.9
1 20 45.00 37.40 0.00 1.31 101.2
1 21 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 104.7
1 22 46.40 27.00 0.00 1.25 106.0
1 23 41.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 106.0
1 24 39.00 33.10 0.60 0.00 106.0
1 25 45.00 32.00 0.58 0.97 106.9
1 26 46.90 33.10 0.01 1.72 108.7
1 27 44.60 33.80 0.13 0.92 109.6
1 28 46.40 37.00 0.32 1.86 111.4
1 29 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 112.4
1 30 50.00 39.00 0.01 3.87 116.3
1 31 53.60 41.00 1.59 6.30 122.6
2 1 52.00 39.20 0.74 4.89 127.5
2 2 45.00 39.20 0.15 1.54 129.0
2 3 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 131.7
2 4 48.00 42.80 0.44 4.40 136.1
2 5 48.90 44.10 0.15 5.50 141.6
2 6 50.00 42.80 0.32 5.40 147.0
2 7 46.90 39.90 0.00 2.59 149.6
2 8 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 149.9
2 9 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 149.9
2 10 28.90 24.80 0.00 0.00 149.9
2 11 26.60 21.00 0.01 0.00 149.9
2 12 28.90 21.20 0.02 0.00 149.9
2 13 30.90 24.80 0.10 0.00 149.9
2 14 36.00 28.40 0.34 0.00 149.9
2 15 37.40 33.10 0.25 0.00 149.9
2 16 46.40 35.10 0.01 1.68 151.6
2 17 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 152.9
2 18 43.00 30.20 0.15 0.34 153.3
2 19 46.90 39.20 0.11 2.43 155.7
2 20 48.00 35.60 0.02 2.39 158.1
2 21 51.80 44.10 0.49 6.95 165.0
2 22 52.00 42.80 1.20 6.40 171.4
2 23 46.90 33.80 0.01 1.77 173.2
2 24 44.60 26.10 0.02 0.69 173.9
2 25 46.90 37.40 0.05 2.13 176.0
2 26 48.90 37.40 0.01 3.03 179.1
2 27 46.40 26.10 0.22 1.22 180.3
2 28 50.00 39.00 0.03 3.87 184.1
3 1 51.80 39.00 0.06 4.74 188.9
3 2 46.90 35.60 0.45 1.93 190.8
3 3 48.90 37.40 0.00 3.03 193.8 Px
3 4 49.60 37.90 0.00 3.45 197.3 Px Pn
3 5 54.00 45.00 0.00 8.50 205.8
3 6 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 212.1
3 7 50.00 41.00 0.04 4.50 216.6
3 8 57.20 33.10 0.00 6.14 222.7
3 9 54.00 34.00 0.00 4.83 227.6
3 10 52.00 32.00 0.00 3.70 231.3
3 11 53.60 28.00 0.00 3.97 235.2
3 12 55.90 32.00 0.00 5.40 240.6
3 13 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 246.9
3 14 55.40 35.10 0.14 5.64 252.6
3 15 48.90 28.40 0.00 2.17 254.7
3 16 50.00 27.00 0.00 2.50 257.2
3 17 59.00 28.40 0.00 6.30 263.5
3 18 62.60 37.00 0.31 9.48 273.0
3 19 57.90 46.40 0.00 11.15 284.2
3 20 50.00 44.10 0.04 6.05 290.2
3 21 45.00 41.00 0.15 2.00 292.2
3 22 52.00 37.00 0.04 4.40 296.6
3 23 51.80 34.00 0.14 3.85 300.5
3 24 48.20 42.80 0.23 4.50 305.0
3 25 53.60 37.90 0.10 5.35 310.3
3 26 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 316.6
3 27 52.00 44.60 0.01 7.30 323.9
3 28 48.90 42.10 0.24 4.50 328.4
3 29 51.10 35.10 0.00 3.68 332.1
3 30 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 336.2
3 31 60.80 30.20 0.00 7.33 343.5
4 1 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 348.8
4 2 52.00 39.20 0.00 4.89 353.6
4 3 57.20 41.00 0.02 8.10 361.7
4 4 52.00 37.00 0.00 4.40 366.1
4 5 54.00 28.40 0.00 4.17 370.3
4 6 55.90 32.00 0.00 5.40 375.7
4 7 48.20 44.60 0.33 5.40 381.1
4 8 52.00 41.00 0.44 5.50 386.6
4 9 48.90 42.10 0.09 4.50 391.1
4 10 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 394.6
4 11 51.80 28.40 0.00 3.29 397.9
4 12 61.00 30.00 0.00 7.39 405.3
4 13 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 417.9
4 14 64.90 39.00 0.00 11.19 429.1
4 15 70.00 37.00 0.00 13.10 442.2
4 16 73.40 39.00 0.00 15.41 457.6
4 17 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 473.3
4 18 75.20 41.00 0.00 17.10 490.4
4 19 71.60 48.00 0.00 18.80 509.2
4 20 69.80 39.90 0.00 13.94 523.1
4 21 66.20 42.10 0.00 13.15 536.3
4 22 61.00 46.40 0.00 12.70 549.0
4 23 60.10 50.00 0.07 14.05 563.0
4 24 52.00 46.40 0.29 8.20 571.2
4 25 54.00 44.60 0.07 8.30 579.5
4 26 57.90 44.60 0.00 10.25 589.8
4 27 57.90 46.40 0.00 11.15 600.9
4 28 61.00 50.00 0.01 14.50 615.4
4 29 68.00 51.10 0.11 18.55 634.0
4 30 64.90 51.10 0.12 17.00 651.0
5 1 60.80 48.00 0.00 13.40 664.4
5 2 61.00 44.10 0.00 11.55 675.9
5 3 57.20 48.00 0.12 11.60 687.5
5 4 61.00 45.00 0.02 12.00 699.5
5 5 68.00 39.20 0.00 12.79 712.3
5 6 66.20 48.00 0.24 16.10 728.4
5 7 55.40 44.60 0.01 9.00 737.4
5 8 55.90 44.10 0.01 9.00 746.4
5 9 61.00 42.80 0.00 10.90 757.3
5 10 64.40 42.10 0.00 12.25 769.6
5 11 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 783.1
5 12 66.90 48.20 0.02 16.55 799.6
5 13 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 816.7
5 14 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 836.2
5 15 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 856.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 16 72.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 877.5
5 17 59.00 51.10 0.21 14.05 891.6
5 18 57.20 46.00 0.31 10.60 902.2
5 19 57.90 41.00 0.01 8.45 910.6
5 20 64.40 35.60 0.00 10.01 920.6
5 21 63.00 46.40 0.00 13.70 934.3
5 22 61.00 48.20 0.00 13.60 947.9
5 23 62.60 53.10 0.05 16.85 964.8 Peak female adult emergence
5 24 59.00 51.10 0.21 14.05 978.8
5 25 64.90 48.00 0.00 15.45 994.3
5 26 63.00 53.10 0.13 17.05 1011.3 Peak egg laying
5 27 61.00 51.10 0.18 15.05 1026.4
5 28 60.80 46.40 0.03 12.60 1039.0
5 29 68.00 39.00 0.00 12.72 1051.7
5 30 69.80 46.90 0.00 17.35 1069.0
5 31 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 1091.5
6 1 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 1117.6
6 2 75.90 55.00 0.00 24.45 1142.1
6 3 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 1163.6
6 4 64.40 53.60 0.27 18.00 1181.6
6 5 64.90 51.10 0.07 17.00 1198.6
6 6 55.40 48.90 0.12 11.15 1209.7
6 7 61.00 44.60 0.21 11.80 1221.5
6 8 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 1234.1
6 9 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1250.3
6 10 64.90 50.00 0.01 16.45 1266.8
6 11 64.40 50.00 0.01 16.20 1283.0 Peak egg hatch
6 12 73.90 53.60 0.14 22.75 1305.7
6 13 68.00 57.20 0.36 21.60 1327.3
6 14 64.40 57.20 0.25 19.80 1347.1
6 15 70.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 1368.6
6 16 71.60 53.10 0.00 21.35 1390.0
6 17 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 1411.5
6 18 70.00 51.80 0.00 19.90 1431.4
6 19 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1451.2
6 20 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 1477.2
6 21 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 1505.1
6 22 73.90 60.10 0.00 26.00 1531.1
6 23 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1553.6
6 24 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 1579.6
6 25 86.00 57.90 0.00 30.95 1610.6
6 26 95.00 62.10 0.00 37.55 1648.1
6 27 95.00 66.00 0.00 39.50 1687.6
6 28 99.00 66.00 0.00 41.50 1729.1
6 29 79.00 64.40 0.00 30.70 1759.8
6 30 71.60 62.10 0.00 25.85 1785.7
7 1 73.90 62.60 0.00 27.25 1812.9
7 2 75.20 60.10 0.00 26.65 1839.6
7 3 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 1866.6
7 4 75.90 60.10 0.00 27.00 1893.6
7 5 72.00 57.20 0.00 23.60 1917.2
7 6 80.10 55.40 0.00 26.75 1943.9
7 7 64.90 57.00 0.00 19.95 1963.9
7 8 70.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 1984.7
7 9 79.00 57.20 0.00 27.10 2011.8
7 10 71.10 57.00 0.00 23.05 2034.8
7 11 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 2059.5
7 12 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 2084.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 13 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2108.8
7 14 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 2129.5
7 15 64.90 55.40 0.00 19.15 2148.6
7 16 69.80 57.00 0.00 22.40 2171.0
7 17 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2195.3
7 18 78.10 55.00 0.00 25.55 2220.9
7 19 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2246.1
7 20 70.00 57.00 0.00 22.50 2268.6
7 21 69.10 55.00 0.00 21.05 2289.6
7 22 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 2310.6
7 23 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 2335.7
7 24 81.00 53.60 0.00 26.30 2362.0
7 25 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2388.1
7 26 75.20 53.10 0.00 23.15 2411.2
7 27 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2439.1
7 28 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 2465.5
7 29 86.00 60.10 0.00 32.05 2497.5
7 30 89.60 57.00 0.00 32.30 2529.8
7 31 72.00 61.00 0.01 25.50 2555.3
8 1 71.60 60.80 0.00 25.20 2580.5
8 2 78.10 60.80 0.00 28.45 2609.0
8 3 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 2635.8
8 4 82.90 59.00 0.00 29.95 2665.7
8 5 75.20 62.60 0.00 27.90 2693.6
8 6 70.00 61.00 0.10 24.50 2718.1
8 7 69.80 57.90 0.16 22.85 2741.0
8 8 70.00 57.00 0.07 22.50 2763.5
8 9 75.90 59.00 0.00 26.45 2789.9
8 10 80.10 57.20 0.00 27.65 2817.6
8 11 82.90 57.20 0.00 29.05 2846.6
8 12 100.40 60.10 0.00 39.25 2885.9
8 13 86.00 60.10 0.00 32.05 2917.9
8 14 78.10 64.00 0.00 30.05 2948.0
8 15 75.90 59.00 0.00 26.45 2974.4
8 16 69.10 60.10 0.12 23.60 2998.0
8 17 69.80 55.00 1.17 21.40 3019.4
8 18 75.20 51.10 0.00 22.15 3041.6
8 19 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 3065.0
8 20 64.90 55.40 0.00 19.15 3084.1
8 21 66.90 59.00 0.00 21.95 3106.1
8 22 64.90 57.20 0.00 20.05 3126.1
8 23 69.80 48.00 0.04 17.90 3144.0
8 24 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 3162.3
8 25 72.00 48.00 0.00 19.00 3181.3
8 26 66.20 60.10 0.09 22.15 3203.4
8 27 68.00 51.10 0.13 18.55 3222.0
8 28 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 3241.1
8 29 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 3262.7
8 30 64.90 52.00 0.14 17.45 3280.2
8 31 63.00 46.90 0.11 13.95 3294.1
9 1 68.00 42.10 0.00 14.05 3308.2
9 2 75.20 44.60 0.00 18.90 3327.1
9 3 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 3346.2
9 4 72.00 48.20 0.18 19.10 3365.3
9 5 71.10 57.20 0.00 23.15 3388.5
9 6 73.00 53.10 0.00 22.05 3410.5
9 7 75.90 50.00 0.01 21.95 3432.5
9 8 75.90 57.20 0.02 25.55 3458.0
9 9 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 3484.0
9 10 70.00 60.80 0.00 24.40 3508.4
9 11 64.00 59.00 0.20 20.50 3528.9
9 12 64.90 55.00 0.32 18.95 3547.9
9 13 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 3565.9
9 14 59.00 48.00 0.19 12.50 3578.4
9 15 64.00 46.40 0.00 14.20 3592.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-15-21 | 856 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-23-21 | 965 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-26-21 | 1011 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-11-21 | 1283 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-12-21 | 2084 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3266868)
