Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 35.60 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 41.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 42.80 26.10 0.03 0.25 0.3 1 5 55.90 37.40 0.22 6.34 6.6 1 6 48.20 42.10 0.73 4.15 10.7 1 7 48.00 39.00 0.43 2.91 13.7 1 8 46.40 39.00 0.41 2.15 15.8 1 9 46.40 41.00 0.06 2.70 18.5 1 10 45.00 39.00 0.05 1.51 20.0 1 11 39.20 33.80 0.94 0.00 20.0 1 12 37.90 33.80 0.44 0.00 20.0 1 13 46.40 35.60 0.01 1.72 21.7 1 14 54.00 32.00 0.00 4.56 26.3 1 15 53.60 35.10 0.00 4.81 31.1 1 16 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 40.1 1 17 62.60 42.80 0.11 11.70 51.8 1 18 50.00 44.60 0.01 6.30 58.1 1 19 48.20 44.10 0.02 5.15 63.3 1 20 50.00 42.10 0.02 5.05 68.3 1 21 51.80 42.10 0.17 5.95 74.3 1 22 46.40 41.00 0.05 2.70 77.0 1 23 48.20 37.40 0.30 2.72 79.7 1 24 51.80 42.10 0.18 5.95 85.6 1 25 43.00 37.00 0.13 0.51 86.1 1 26 43.00 37.90 0.18 0.56 86.7 1 27 48.90 37.00 0.10 2.97 89.7 1 28 55.90 39.20 0.38 6.80 96.5 1 29 55.90 44.10 0.51 9.00 105.5 1 30 46.40 41.00 0.13 2.70 108.2 1 31 44.60 39.00 0.13 1.33 109.5 2 1 45.00 39.90 0.39 1.67 111.2 2 2 52.00 39.20 0.52 4.89 116.1 2 3 48.90 46.40 0.68 6.65 122.7 2 4 53.60 48.00 0.55 9.80 132.5 2 5 48.20 44.60 0.02 5.40 137.9 2 6 46.90 44.10 0.14 4.50 142.4 2 7 52.00 46.00 0.04 8.00 150.4 2 8 55.40 43.00 0.01 8.20 158.6 2 9 45.00 33.80 0.01 1.06 159.7 2 10 44.10 28.40 0.00 0.60 160.3 2 11 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 161.2 2 12 43.00 26.10 0.00 0.30 161.5 2 13 42.80 24.10 0.25 0.24 161.7 2 14 42.80 33.10 0.08 0.34 162.0 2 15 43.00 33.10 0.20 0.39 162.4 2 16 46.40 39.00 0.31 2.15 164.6 2 17 48.90 35.10 0.61 2.72 167.3 2 18 36.00 26.60 0.15 0.00 167.3 2 19 36.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 167.3 2 20 37.90 21.20 0.00 0.00 167.3 2 21 34.00 21.00 0.01 0.00 167.3 2 22 39.90 21.90 0.00 0.00 167.3 2 23 35.60 19.00 0.16 0.00 167.3 2 24 43.00 30.20 0.10 0.34 167.6 2 25 46.40 33.10 0.02 1.53 169.2 2 26 44.10 32.00 0.09 0.68 169.8 2 27 46.40 37.40 0.02 1.91 171.8 2 28 48.90 39.00 0.04 3.34 175.1 3 1 50.00 36.00 0.01 3.32 178.4 3 2 43.00 35.10 0.01 0.44 178.9 3 3 48.20 28.90 0.00 1.95 180.8 3 4 46.90 28.40 0.02 1.46 182.3 3 5 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 183.2 3 6 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 187.1 3 7 48.90 30.20 0.07 2.29 189.4 3 8 50.00 37.40 0.29 3.54 193.0 3 9 50.00 32.00 0.50 2.86 195.8 3 10 55.90 28.00 0.00 4.93 200.8 3 11 62.60 28.40 0.00 7.88 208.7 3 12 70.00 32.00 0.00 11.91 220.6 3 13 60.80 45.00 0.58 11.90 232.5 3 14 46.90 39.20 0.19 2.43 234.9 3 15 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 240.1 3 16 55.90 30.00 0.00 5.14 245.2 3 17 52.00 30.20 0.00 3.52 248.7 3 18 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 252.8 3 19 52.00 33.80 0.00 3.91 256.7 3 20 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 260.2 3 21 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 267.6 3 22 51.80 35.60 0.72 4.07 271.7 3 23 46.90 35.60 0.01 1.93 273.6 3 24 46.90 30.90 0.14 1.58 275.2 3 25 48.90 28.40 0.00 2.17 277.4 3 26 46.40 42.10 0.79 3.25 280.6 3 27 55.40 44.60 0.25 9.00 289.6 3 28 51.80 44.10 0.00 6.95 296.6 3 29 48.90 44.10 0.17 5.50 302.1 3 30 55.40 39.00 0.13 6.50 308.6 3 31 57.90 32.00 0.00 6.29 314.9 4 1 50.00 35.10 0.06 3.20 318.1 4 2 50.00 33.10 0.00 2.97 321.0 4 3 48.90 39.00 0.00 3.34 324.4 4 4 48.20 39.20 0.47 3.05 327.4 4 5 48.90 42.10 0.70 4.50 331.9 4 6 62.60 46.00 0.13 13.30 345.2 4 7 57.20 48.20 0.13 11.70 356.9 4 8 53.60 48.00 0.22 9.80 366.7 4 9 59.00 46.40 0.51 11.70 378.4 4 10 57.90 44.60 0.09 10.25 388.7 4 11 55.40 43.00 0.26 8.20 396.9 4 12 51.80 42.10 0.01 5.95 402.8 4 13 53.60 44.10 0.26 7.85 410.7 4 14 51.80 44.10 0.18 6.95 417.6 4 15 54.00 42.80 0.15 7.40 425.0 4 16 46.40 42.80 0.30 3.60 428.6 4 17 52.00 44.60 0.03 7.30 435.9 4 18 57.90 39.00 0.11 7.73 443.6 4 19 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 451.1 4 20 57.90 42.10 0.06 9.00 460.1 4 21 55.90 42.10 0.01 8.00 468.1 4 22 57.20 37.00 0.00 6.87 474.9 4 23 66.20 34.00 0.00 10.52 485.5 4 24 69.80 36.00 0.00 12.73 498.2 4 25 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 511.9 4 26 75.00 42.10 0.00 17.55 529.5 4 27 57.90 46.40 0.01 11.15 540.6 4 28 53.60 48.20 0.13 9.90 550.5 4 29 57.20 48.20 0.01 11.70 562.2 4 30 57.90 48.20 0.01 12.05 574.3 5 1 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 586.0 5 2 66.20 42.10 0.00 13.15 599.1 5 3 71.60 44.10 0.00 16.85 616.0 5 4 59.00 45.00 0.00 11.00 627.0 5 5 66.90 41.00 0.02 12.95 639.9 5 6 73.40 50.00 0.22 20.70 660.6 5 7 66.20 51.80 0.02 18.00 678.6 5 8 72.00 46.40 0.08 18.20 696.8 5 9 66.20 51.10 0.32 17.65 714.5 5 10 60.80 48.20 0.01 13.50 728.0 5 11 64.90 48.00 0.00 15.45 743.4 5 12 71.60 44.10 0.00 16.85 760.3 5 13 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 781.2 5 14 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 806.4 5 15 66.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 825.4 5 16 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 843.4 5 17 63.00 53.10 0.00 17.05 860.5 peak pheromone trap catch 5 18 63.00 53.60 0.00 17.30 877.8 5 19 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 899.4
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 899QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 6 days ahead 2017 ok
 21 days behind 2016 ok
 14 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for KBLI data
  5 20  60.80 52.80  0.00  15.80    915.2  0.00_6.80%_precip.    
  5 21  64.50 52.30  0.00  17.40    932.6  0.00_8.40%_precip.    
  5 22  73.50 54.10  0.00  22.80    955.4  0.00_13.80%_precip.   peak female adult emergence
  5 23  71.60 56.70  0.00  23.15    978.5  0.00_14.15%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg KBLI 2006-2015
  5 24  61.40 47.00  0.07  13.20    991.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  64.70 47.80  0.01  15.25   1007.0  *hist_fcst*   peak egg laying
  5 26  63.80 49.40  0.11  15.60   1022.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  62.70 50.00  0.11  15.35   1037.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  62.40 49.40  0.13  14.90   1052.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 29  63.30 48.50  0.07  14.90   1067.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  62.90 47.30  0.02  14.10   1081.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  65.50 47.70  0.05  15.60   1097.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  67.50 49.50  0.06  17.50   1114.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  66.40 51.40  0.08  17.90   1132.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  66.60 50.60  0.06  17.60   1150.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  66.80 49.80  0.11  17.30   1167.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  66.40 50.00  0.06  17.20   1184.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  65.90 49.30  0.06  16.60   1201.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  65.90 50.20  0.06  17.05   1218.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  65.70 50.60  0.05  17.15   1235.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  65.30 50.00  0.09  16.65   1252.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  65.00 50.30  0.10  16.65   1269.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  64.10 49.60  0.03  15.85   1284.9  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6 12  65.60 49.70  0.02  16.65   1301.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 13  66.60 51.00  0.03  17.80   1319.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  64.70 50.90  0.03  16.80   1336.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  63.60 49.60  0.04  15.60   1351.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  66.10 49.40  0.07  16.75   1368.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  64.60 51.60  0.07  17.10   1385.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  64.60 51.80  0.06  17.20   1402.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  65.10 51.10  0.03  17.10   1419.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  66.00 50.30  0.05  17.15   1437.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  66.30 50.60  0.07  17.45   1454.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  68.90 51.70  0.00  19.30   1473.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  67.20 50.50  0.07  17.85   1491.6  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  68.30 50.70  0.08  18.50   1510.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  68.90 52.50  0.05  19.70   1529.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  70.30 52.00  0.01  20.15   1550.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  70.20 52.50  0.00  20.35   1570.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  71.20 53.80  0.02  21.50   1591.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  72.10 54.30  0.02  22.20   1614.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  72.10 54.30  0.04  22.20   1636.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  72.40 52.80  0.01  21.60   1657.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  72.50 52.60  0.00  21.55   1679.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  73.30 53.40  0.05  22.35   1701.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  70.20 53.90  0.08  21.05   1722.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  71.30 52.80  0.00  21.05   1743.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  73.00 53.40  0.00  22.20   1766.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  71.00 53.20  0.01  21.10   1787.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  72.40 54.30  0.02  22.35   1809.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  74.40 54.10  0.01  23.25   1832.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  74.40 54.30  0.00  23.35   1856.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  72.00 53.70  0.00  21.85   1877.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  74.50 53.30  0.00  22.90   1900.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  71.00 55.20  0.04  22.10   1922.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  70.60 55.10  0.02  21.85   1944.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  72.20 54.60  0.02  22.40   1967.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  73.00 55.00  0.01  23.00   1990.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  75.30 54.70  0.02  24.00   2014.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  71.60 55.60  0.01  22.60   2036.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  70.80 55.40  0.04  22.10   2058.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  72.00 55.40  0.01  22.70   2081.6  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 21  70.70 55.10  0.06  21.90   2103.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  73.30 56.40  0.03  23.85   2127.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  70.00 55.90  0.05  21.95   2149.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  70.50 54.80  0.10  21.65   2170.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  73.50 54.70  0.06  23.10   2194.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  71.90 54.50  0.02  22.20   2216.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  72.20 55.60  0.00  22.90   2239.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  73.60 55.10  0.00  23.35   2262.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  73.70 54.90  0.00  23.30   2285.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  73.90 55.80  0.01  23.85   2309.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  73.20 54.40  0.01  22.80   2332.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  71.70 52.80  0.03  21.25   2353.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  72.80 53.70  0.01  22.25   2375.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  72.90 54.90  0.01  22.90   2398.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  74.40 54.60  0.00  23.50   2422.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  76.00 55.40  0.01  24.70   2447.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  73.80 55.50  0.01  23.65   2470.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  72.10 55.20  0.00  22.65   2493.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  69.60 55.70  0.03  21.65   2515.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  68.90 55.20  0.00  21.05   2536.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  70.20 54.20  0.06  21.20   2557.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  70.90 54.00  0.08  21.45   2578.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  73.10 52.60  0.02  21.85   2600.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  74.00 53.70  0.04  22.85   2623.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  73.90 54.30  0.02  23.10   2646.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  74.00 54.80  0.04  23.40   2669.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  75.50 55.00  0.00  24.25   2694.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  75.70 54.30  0.00  24.00   2718.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  75.30 54.50  0.00  23.90   2742.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  72.10 54.60  0.01  22.35   2764.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  72.50 55.40  0.03  22.95   2787.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  71.30 54.30  0.04  21.80   2809.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  70.40 53.20  0.01  20.80   2829.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  70.90 52.90  0.04  20.90   2850.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  72.40 52.70  0.01  21.55   2872.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  71.10 51.70  0.06  20.40   2892.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  72.90 51.40  0.01  21.15   2913.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  72.70 52.30  0.04  21.50   2935.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  73.30 52.80  0.05  22.05   2957.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  71.80 53.90  0.06  21.85   2979.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  69.60 55.00  0.09  21.30   3000.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  69.10 52.60  0.02  19.85   3020.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  66.80 52.10  0.15  18.45   3038.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  68.30 50.00  0.04  18.15   3057.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  69.90 50.30  0.14  19.10   3076.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  70.10 49.60  0.05  18.85   3095.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  70.00 50.30  0.01  19.15   3114.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  68.70 50.90  0.07  18.80   3133.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  70.10 51.50  0.13  19.80   3152.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  71.10 50.40  0.02  19.75   3172.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  70.70 51.20  0.01  19.95   3192.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  69.20 51.10  0.02  19.15   3211.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  70.90 49.60  0.00  19.25   3230.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  73.70 48.40  0.03  20.05   3250.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  69.60 50.20  0.08  18.90   3269.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  68.80 49.90  0.02  18.35   3288.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  67.10 49.80  0.00  17.45   3305.6  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt
DD accumulation on 5-19-18: 899 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 6 days ahead 2017 ok
 21 days behind 2016 ok
 14 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-17-18 860peak pheromone trap catch
 5-22-18 955peak female adult emergence
 5-25-18 1007peak egg laying
 6-11-18 1285peak egg hatch
 7-20-18 2082peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)