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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 34.50 28.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 34.40 30.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 39.10 28.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 38.00 25.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 45.70 30.20 0.00 1.14 1.1
1 6 43.60 23.80 0.00 0.41 1.5
1 7 39.10 29.20 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 8 39.80 32.00 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 9 41.90 28.80 0.00 0.10 1.6
1 10 43.20 26.40 0.00 0.34 2.0
1 11 40.80 32.10 0.00 0.00 2.0
1 12 42.20 36.70 0.00 0.24 2.2
1 13 44.60 34.40 0.00 0.94 3.2
1 14 46.00 34.20 0.00 1.45 4.6
1 15 47.20 31.70 0.00 1.74 6.4
1 16 51.50 27.10 0.00 3.07 9.4
1 17 34.70 22.60 0.00 0.00 9.4
1 18 35.40 31.70 0.00 0.00 9.4
1 19 50.20 24.70 0.00 2.44 11.9
1 20 41.50 18.70 0.00 0.03 11.9
1 21 36.80 17.00 0.00 0.00 11.9
1 22 39.90 22.30 0.00 0.00 11.9
1 23 42.40 19.90 0.00 0.15 12.1
1 24 43.30 18.00 0.00 0.30 12.4
1 25 43.20 23.20 0.00 0.31 12.7
1 26 37.10 22.70 0.00 0.00 12.7
1 27 58.90 32.70 0.00 6.85 19.5
1 28 45.00 26.20 0.00 0.80 20.3
1 29 32.80 9.50 0.00 0.00 20.3
1 30 32.90 4.10 0.00 0.00 20.3
1 31 28.80 21.50 0.00 0.00 20.3
2 1 35.90 18.60 0.00 0.00 20.3
2 2 41.80 15.80 0.00 0.06 20.4
2 3 39.80 18.00 0.00 0.00 20.4
2 4 53.00 36.20 0.00 4.72 25.1
2 5 48.10 33.40 0.00 2.22 27.3
2 6 54.40 32.20 0.00 4.76 32.1
2 7 51.30 40.10 0.00 4.81 36.9
2 8 53.60 29.30 0.00 4.09 41.0
2 9 49.30 25.40 0.00 2.16 43.1
2 10 46.40 26.50 0.00 1.23 44.4
2 11 51.60 19.70 0.00 2.69 47.1
2 12 52.30 21.60 0.00 3.03 50.1
2 13 54.80 35.00 0.00 5.35 55.4
2 14 50.90 28.70 0.00 2.95 58.4
2 15 48.30 22.20 0.00 1.69 60.1
2 16 48.30 19.20 0.00 1.59 61.7
2 17 55.50 32.70 0.00 5.31 67.0
2 18 58.90 33.00 0.00 6.90 73.9
2 19 57.30 35.60 0.00 6.62 80.5
2 20 59.60 46.70 0.00 12.15 92.7
2 21 52.50 38.60 0.00 4.98 97.6
2 22 38.50 22.50 0.00 0.00 97.6
2 23 23.90 16.70 0.00 0.00 97.6
2 24 30.90 9.20 0.00 0.00 97.6
2 25 37.00 9.70 0.00 0.00 97.6
2 26 52.60 15.80 0.00 2.86 100.5
2 27 38.20 23.20 0.00 0.00 100.5
2 28 47.90 27.90 0.00 1.79 102.3
3 1 49.90 24.40 0.00 2.32 104.6
3 2 55.70 36.10 0.00 5.97 110.6
3 3 51.40 32.10 0.00 3.46 114.0
3 4 48.60 22.70 0.00 1.80 115.8
3 5 52.70 23.70 0.00 3.30 119.1
3 6 51.10 29.50 0.00 3.09 122.2
3 7 52.60 24.30 0.00 3.30 125.5
3 8 46.70 24.30 0.00 1.25 126.8
3 9 49.60 23.60 0.00 2.18 129.0
3 10 53.10 32.60 0.00 4.24 133.2
3 11 55.80 30.10 0.00 5.11 138.3
3 12 49.70 23.20 0.00 2.19 140.5
3 13 63.50 34.60 0.00 9.36 149.9
3 14 50.40 27.30 0.00 2.67 152.5
3 15 56.70 25.50 0.00 5.02 157.6
3 16 56.90 24.40 0.00 5.00 162.6
3 17 58.20 22.90 0.00 5.39 168.0
3 18 62.00 28.80 0.00 7.67 175.6
3 19 57.90 28.70 0.00 5.85 181.5
3 20 51.90 43.90 0.00 6.90 188.4
3 21 59.90 38.30 0.00 8.51 196.9
3 22 63.60 30.10 0.00 8.59 205.5
3 23 60.10 40.20 0.00 9.22 214.7
3 24 54.60 34.80 0.00 5.22 219.9
3 25 54.40 28.30 0.00 4.33 224.2
3 26 57.30 30.00 0.00 5.75 230.0
3 27 57.90 20.40 0.00 5.07 235.1
3 28 55.00 37.30 0.00 5.88 241.0
3 29 54.00 41.00 0.00 6.50 247.5
3 30 62.30 30.80 0.00 8.10 255.6
3 31 56.50 33.10 0.00 5.82 261.4
4 1 57.70 37.00 0.00 7.11 268.5
4 2 55.50 34.20 0.00 5.54 274.0
4 3 53.10 32.20 0.00 4.19 278.2
4 4 56.50 27.40 0.00 5.12 283.3
4 5 58.10 23.80 0.00 5.43 288.8
4 6 63.50 31.30 0.00 8.74 297.5
4 7 64.70 46.00 0.00 14.35 311.9
4 8 62.30 39.20 0.00 9.96 321.8
4 9 69.00 44.60 0.00 15.80 337.6
4 10 58.00 48.30 0.00 12.15 349.8
4 11 58.90 34.30 0.00 7.13 356.9
4 12 57.70 26.90 0.00 5.57 362.5
4 13 59.40 28.70 0.00 6.51 369.0
4 14 62.80 34.20 0.00 8.94 377.9
4 15 65.40 29.30 0.00 9.28 387.2
4 16 64.80 40.10 0.00 11.52 398.7
4 17 60.40 36.40 0.00 8.27 407.0
4 18 58.90 38.20 0.00 7.99 415.0
4 19 61.20 34.10 0.00 8.17 423.2
4 20 54.20 28.60 0.00 4.28 427.4
4 21 58.20 35.30 0.00 6.99 434.4
4 22 69.50 41.60 0.00 14.55 449.0
4 23 74.10 46.00 0.00 19.05 468.0
4 24 68.30 45.50 0.00 15.90 483.9
4 25 72.60 32.30 0.00 13.21 497.1
4 26 80.10 35.80 0.00 17.71 514.8
4 27 79.00 45.40 0.00 21.20 536.0
4 28 84.50 36.30 0.00 20.03 556.1
4 29 89.30 45.10 0.00 26.20 582.3
4 30 87.30 46.70 0.00 26.00 608.3
5 1 75.50 49.90 0.00 21.70 630.0
5 2 74.00 46.40 0.00 19.20 649.2
5 3 91.00 45.60 0.00 27.30 676.5
5 4 83.20 54.60 0.00 27.90 704.4
5 5 60.00 51.90 0.00 14.95 719.3
5 6 72.50 50.50 0.00 20.50 739.8
5 7 68.80 48.30 0.00 17.55 757.4
5 8 75.80 38.90 0.00 16.56 773.9
5 9 74.10 46.80 0.00 19.45 793.4
5 10 79.30 38.50 0.00 18.16 811.5
5 11 83.10 40.50 0.00 20.82 832.4
5 12 87.70 40.70 0.00 23.21 855.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 13 91.60 47.70 0.00 28.65 884.2
5 14 92.40 62.50 0.00 36.45 920.7
5 15 91.50 61.80 0.00 35.65 956.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 16 84.10 62.10 0.00 32.10 988.4
5 17 87.50 52.30 0.00 28.90 1017.3 Peak egg laying
5 18 96.10 55.40 0.00 34.75 1052.1
5 19 98.50 57.60 0.00 37.05 1089.1
5 20 100.60 65.60 0.00 42.10 1131.2
5 21 87.00 55.90 0.00 30.45 1161.7
5 22 77.00 52.40 0.00 23.70 1185.4
5 23 77.40 45.20 0.00 20.30 1205.7
5 24 83.20 42.70 0.00 21.95 1227.6
5 25 81.40 53.50 0.00 26.45 1254.1
5 26 82.80 61.70 0.00 31.25 1285.3 Peak egg hatch
5 27 88.80 51.20 0.00 29.00 1314.3
5 28 88.90 53.40 0.00 30.15 1344.5
5 29 91.10 53.50 0.00 31.30 1375.8
5 30 87.60 49.40 0.00 27.50 1403.3
5 31 80.60 49.10 0.00 23.85 1427.1
6 1 82.30 40.70 0.00 20.51 1447.6
6 2 86.00 46.70 0.00 25.35 1473.0
6 3 90.90 50.30 0.00 29.60 1502.6
6 4 92.80 54.20 0.00 32.50 1535.1
6 5 94.70 55.30 0.00 34.00 1569.1
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1569.
QA 100% ok
| |
| This year is about | versus | QA |
| 14 days ahead | 2022 | ok |
| 2 days behind | 2021 | ok |
| 8 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 6 91.00 57.00 0.00 33.00 1602.1 Sunny
6 7 94.00 60.00 0.00 36.00 1638.1 Partly_Cloudy
6 8 98.00 65.00 0.00 40.50 1678.6 Partly_Cloudy_3%_precip
6 9 96.00 65.00 0.00 39.50 1718.1 Mostly_Cloudy_20%_precip
6 10 83.00 60.00 0.00 30.50 1748.6 Partly_Cloudy_21%_precip
6 11 85.00 59.00 0.00 31.00 1779.6 Partly_Cloudy_10%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 HPROS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 81.40 52.90 0.00 26.15 1805.7 *hist_fcst*
6 13 82.80 53.50 0.02 27.15 1832.9 *hist_fcst*
6 14 80.00 53.80 0.02 25.90 1858.8 *hist_fcst*
6 15 78.70 51.50 0.00 24.10 1882.9 *hist_fcst*
6 16 78.90 51.70 0.03 24.30 1907.2 *hist_fcst*
6 17 81.00 53.80 0.02 26.40 1933.6 *hist_fcst*
6 18 83.70 54.90 0.02 28.30 1961.9 *hist_fcst*
6 19 80.60 56.20 0.04 27.40 1989.3 *hist_fcst*
6 20 83.60 55.90 0.00 28.75 2018.0 *hist_fcst*
6 21 83.80 56.80 0.02 29.30 2047.3 *hist_fcst*
6 22 84.00 55.50 0.00 28.75 2076.1 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
6 23 86.80 55.30 0.02 30.05 2106.1 *hist_fcst*
6 24 86.80 57.10 0.03 30.95 2137.1 *hist_fcst*
6 25 86.40 57.90 0.01 31.15 2168.2 *hist_fcst*
6 26 86.90 58.00 0.04 31.45 2199.7 *hist_fcst*
6 27 88.50 59.10 0.07 32.80 2232.5 *hist_fcst*
6 28 89.70 58.80 0.00 33.25 2265.7 *hist_fcst*
6 29 90.50 61.00 0.02 34.75 2300.5 *hist_fcst*
6 30 91.40 61.50 0.01 35.45 2335.9 *hist_fcst*
7 1 91.50 62.00 0.01 35.75 2371.7 *hist_fcst*
7 2 92.50 61.10 0.00 35.80 2407.5 *hist_fcst*
7 3 91.60 60.90 0.00 35.25 2442.7 *hist_fcst*
7 4 90.00 59.10 0.00 33.55 2476.3 *hist_fcst*
7 5 90.20 58.70 0.00 33.45 2509.7 *hist_fcst*
7 6 92.10 60.60 0.00 35.35 2545.1 *hist_fcst*
7 7 93.20 61.20 0.00 36.20 2581.3 *hist_fcst*
7 8 92.40 61.20 0.01 35.80 2617.1 *hist_fcst*
7 9 92.70 61.30 0.01 36.00 2653.1 *hist_fcst*
7 10 93.80 62.20 0.00 37.00 2690.1 *hist_fcst*
7 11 91.90 62.80 0.00 36.35 2726.4 *hist_fcst*
7 12 91.70 60.50 0.00 35.10 2761.5 *hist_fcst*
7 13 91.90 61.10 0.00 35.50 2797.0 *hist_fcst*
7 14 92.40 61.60 0.00 36.00 2833.0 *hist_fcst*
7 15 93.80 60.30 0.00 36.05 2869.1 *hist_fcst*
7 16 91.90 61.40 0.00 35.65 2904.7 *hist_fcst*
7 17 92.00 61.90 0.03 35.95 2940.7 *hist_fcst*
7 18 91.70 62.00 0.00 35.85 2976.5 *hist_fcst*
7 19 91.90 61.80 0.00 35.85 3012.4 *hist_fcst*
7 20 93.00 61.90 0.00 36.45 3048.8 *hist_fcst*
7 21 91.20 59.40 0.00 34.30 3083.1 *hist_fcst*
7 22 91.90 58.90 0.00 34.40 3117.5 *hist_fcst*
7 23 91.00 60.50 0.00 34.75 3152.3 *hist_fcst*
7 24 91.80 59.30 0.01 34.55 3186.8 *hist_fcst*
7 25 90.50 58.50 0.00 33.50 3220.3 *hist_fcst*
7 26 93.20 58.80 0.00 35.00 3255.3 *hist_fcst*
7 27 94.90 61.40 0.00 37.15 3292.5 *hist_fcst*
7 28 92.50 62.00 0.00 36.25 3328.7 *hist_fcst*
7 29 94.50 62.20 0.00 37.35 3366.1 *hist_fcst*
7 30 97.70 62.60 0.00 39.15 3405.2 *hist_fcst*
7 31 99.20 63.50 0.00 40.35 3445.6 *hist_fcst*
8 1 96.80 63.90 0.00 39.35 3484.9 *hist_fcst*
8 2 94.40 63.10 0.00 37.75 3522.7 *hist_fcst*
8 3 92.10 63.20 0.01 36.65 3559.3 *hist_fcst*
8 4 91.50 61.50 0.00 35.50 3594.8 *hist_fcst*
8 5 94.50 60.70 0.00 36.60 3631.4 *hist_fcst*
8 6 95.30 61.90 0.00 37.60 3669.0 *hist_fcst*
8 7 94.00 61.60 0.00 36.80 3705.8 *hist_fcst*
8 8 94.20 61.70 0.00 36.95 3742.8 *hist_fcst*
8 9 91.60 60.90 0.00 35.25 3778.0 *hist_fcst*
8 10 90.80 60.50 0.00 34.65 3812.7 *hist_fcst*
8 11 93.70 61.60 0.02 36.65 3849.3 *hist_fcst*
8 12 94.10 61.50 0.01 36.80 3886.1 *hist_fcst*
8 13 93.00 61.30 0.00 36.15 3922.3 *hist_fcst*
8 14 91.70 60.50 0.03 35.10 3957.4 *hist_fcst*
8 15 91.90 61.00 0.02 35.45 3992.8 *hist_fcst*
8 16 92.10 60.80 0.00 35.45 4028.3 *hist_fcst*
8 17 93.10 61.90 0.00 36.50 4064.8 *hist_fcst*
8 18 91.30 61.40 0.01 35.35 4100.1 *hist_fcst*
8 19 93.80 61.10 0.00 36.45 4136.6 *hist_fcst*
8 20 92.00 61.10 0.00 35.55 4172.1 *hist_fcst*
8 21 89.70 59.90 0.00 33.80 4205.9 *hist_fcst*
8 22 88.60 58.50 0.00 32.55 4238.5 *hist_fcst*
8 23 85.60 56.60 0.01 30.10 4268.6 *hist_fcst*
8 24 85.10 56.50 0.00 29.80 4298.4 *hist_fcst*
8 25 85.90 56.00 0.00 29.95 4328.3 *hist_fcst*
8 26 85.10 55.30 0.02 29.20 4357.5 *hist_fcst*
8 27 86.50 56.30 0.00 30.40 4387.9 *hist_fcst*
8 28 88.70 56.70 0.00 31.70 4419.6 *hist_fcst*
8 29 89.60 58.00 0.00 32.80 4452.4 *hist_fcst*
8 30 89.20 58.50 0.00 32.85 4485.3 *hist_fcst*
8 31 84.60 57.20 0.00 29.90 4515.2 *hist_fcst*
9 1 84.40 56.10 0.00 29.25 4544.4 *hist_fcst*
9 2 84.80 55.50 0.00 29.15 4573.6 *hist_fcst*
9 3 85.40 54.70 0.00 29.05 4602.6 *hist_fcst*
9 4 84.60 54.30 0.00 28.45 4631.1 *hist_fcst*
9 5 85.10 53.90 0.00 28.50 4659.6 *hist_fcst*
9 6 86.40 55.30 0.02 29.85 4689.4 *hist_fcst*
9 7 82.40 54.90 0.02 27.65 4717.1 *hist_fcst*
9 8 84.30 54.00 0.00 28.15 4745.2 *hist_fcst*
9 9 84.30 55.00 0.00 28.65 4773.9 *hist_fcst*
9 10 83.30 54.80 0.00 28.05 4801.9 *hist_fcst*
9 11 81.30 53.20 0.02 26.25 4828.2 *hist_fcst*
9 12 81.50 51.80 0.00 25.65 4853.8 *hist_fcst*
9 13 82.80 51.70 0.00 26.25 4880.1 *hist_fcst*
9 14 80.50 51.40 0.00 24.95 4905.0 *hist_fcst*
9 15 79.20 50.30 0.00 23.75 4928.8 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1569. QA 100% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | | | This year is about | versus | QA | | 14 days ahead | 2022 | ok | | 2 days behind | 2021 | ok | | 8 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
| Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-12-23 | 856 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-15-23 | 956 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-17-23 | 1017 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-26-23 | 1285 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-22-23 | 2076 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?26307)
