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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 40.80 23.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 52.50 41.10 0.00 5.80 5.8
1 3 54.00 39.70 0.00 6.02 11.8
1 4 48.80 38.90 0.00 3.27 15.1
1 5 47.80 36.30 0.00 2.39 17.5
1 6 48.90 37.90 0.00 3.12 20.6
1 7 46.20 32.00 0.00 1.39 22.0
1 8 41.60 35.70 0.00 0.08 22.1
1 9 43.20 30.40 0.00 0.39 22.5
1 10 44.30 32.70 0.00 0.77 23.2
1 11 38.70 29.70 0.00 0.00 23.2
1 12 57.50 36.50 0.00 6.90 30.1
1 13 64.00 35.70 0.00 9.84 40.0
1 14 49.00 29.80 0.00 2.30 42.3
1 15 45.90 25.60 0.00 1.05 43.3
1 16 42.30 23.50 0.00 0.15 43.5
1 17 49.40 26.00 0.00 2.22 45.7
1 18 52.10 21.50 0.00 2.95 48.6
1 19 41.90 21.20 0.00 0.08 48.7
1 20 41.90 25.90 0.00 0.09 48.8
1 21 39.00 29.10 0.00 0.00 48.8
1 22 43.40 23.40 0.00 0.36 49.2
1 23 40.60 13.30 0.00 0.00 49.2
1 24 35.20 20.70 0.00 0.00 49.2
1 25 40.50 28.00 0.00 0.00 49.2
1 26 41.30 30.50 0.00 0.02 49.2
1 27 40.50 30.30 0.00 0.00 49.2
1 28 46.20 27.50 0.00 1.20 50.4
1 29 43.70 28.50 0.00 0.49 50.9
1 30 44.20 29.10 0.00 0.64 51.5
1 31 50.80 33.60 0.00 3.36 54.9
2 1 52.00 39.50 0.00 4.97 59.9
2 2 55.00 36.70 0.00 5.76 65.6
2 3 49.50 30.70 0.00 2.56 68.2
2 4 52.30 32.80 0.00 3.92 72.1
2 5 62.80 39.70 0.00 10.38 82.5
2 6 57.40 34.20 0.00 6.41 88.9
2 7 51.60 29.70 0.00 3.31 92.2
2 8 43.80 22.60 0.00 0.44 92.6
2 9 36.50 15.70 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 10 36.70 10.30 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 11 27.10 19.80 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 12 21.60 15.70 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 13 25.50 18.00 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 14 33.60 19.90 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 15 34.60 20.80 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 16 34.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 17 35.70 8.00 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 18 30.30 11.00 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 19 32.60 19.20 0.00 0.00 92.6
2 20 43.60 20.20 0.00 0.37 93.0
2 21 51.70 37.50 0.00 4.36 97.4
2 22 61.20 44.50 0.00 11.85 109.2
2 23 54.50 34.50 0.00 5.13 114.4
2 24 50.90 29.30 0.00 3.00 117.4
2 25 57.00 29.90 0.00 5.61 123.0
2 26 52.10 36.90 0.00 4.43 127.4
2 27 52.20 28.50 0.00 3.45 130.8
2 28 60.60 32.40 0.00 7.58 138.4
3 1 60.70 31.80 0.00 7.53 146.0
3 2 63.50 30.80 0.00 8.65 154.6
3 3 65.00 28.30 0.00 8.94 163.6 Px
3 4 58.90 34.90 0.00 7.24 170.8 Px Pn
3 5 69.10 29.60 0.00 11.03 181.8 Pn
3 6 58.80 40.60 0.00 8.72 190.6
3 7 56.30 34.90 0.00 6.03 196.6
3 8 53.10 28.70 0.00 3.83 200.4
3 9 57.90 29.70 0.00 5.98 206.4
3 10 56.70 23.10 0.00 4.81 211.2
3 11 60.50 33.50 0.00 7.73 218.9
3 12 62.10 23.80 0.00 7.10 226.0
3 13 63.40 23.20 0.00 7.59 233.6
3 14 58.50 25.40 0.00 5.75 239.4
3 15 55.20 41.70 0.00 7.45 246.8
3 16 60.00 29.30 0.00 6.85 253.7
3 17 61.90 24.80 0.00 7.13 260.8
3 18 67.40 28.80 0.00 10.11 270.9
3 19 62.80 42.10 0.00 11.45 282.4
3 20 62.00 38.00 0.00 9.46 291.8
3 21 55.60 24.90 0.00 4.52 296.3
3 22 58.50 43.10 0.00 9.80 306.1
3 23 62.40 28.90 0.00 7.86 314.0
3 24 60.00 36.10 0.00 8.01 322.0
3 25 61.80 34.20 0.00 8.47 330.5
3 26 64.30 28.10 0.00 8.60 339.1
3 27 67.20 36.50 0.00 11.59 350.7
3 28 71.60 41.40 0.00 15.50 366.2
3 29 54.70 34.70 0.00 5.25 371.4
3 30 58.20 26.40 0.00 5.73 377.2
3 31 64.10 23.40 0.00 7.91 385.1
4 1 73.50 29.10 0.00 12.99 398.1
4 2 71.40 30.30 0.00 12.23 410.3
4 3 66.90 36.40 0.00 11.42 421.7
4 4 64.70 38.40 0.00 10.90 432.6
4 5 62.30 35.50 0.00 8.98 441.6
4 6 68.40 25.40 0.00 10.05 451.6
4 7 63.30 29.60 0.00 8.37 460.0
4 8 58.00 37.30 0.00 7.33 467.3
4 9 67.00 24.90 0.00 9.36 476.7
4 10 80.50 37.10 0.00 18.30 495.0 Px
4 11 65.50 17.70 0.00 7.91 502.9 Px
4 12 62.50 19.50 0.00 6.84 509.8
4 13 64.60 42.50 0.00 12.55 522.3
4 14 71.10 42.80 0.00 15.95 538.3
4 15 74.60 43.70 0.00 18.15 556.4
4 16 76.20 37.30 0.00 16.24 572.6
4 17 78.80 32.90 0.00 16.32 589.0
4 18 86.20 34.10 0.00 20.23 609.2
4 19 65.30 38.40 0.00 11.20 620.4
4 20 69.50 34.30 0.00 12.17 632.6
4 21 74.50 29.80 0.00 13.59 646.1
4 22 77.10 46.40 0.00 20.75 666.9
4 23 69.30 40.30 0.00 13.85 680.7
4 24 62.20 46.50 0.00 13.35 694.1
4 25 67.30 46.10 0.00 15.70 709.8
4 26 69.40 37.50 0.00 12.95 722.7
4 27 72.80 40.70 0.00 15.76 738.5
4 28 78.40 44.80 0.00 20.60 759.1
4 29 87.50 47.50 0.00 26.50 785.6
4 30 81.40 53.90 0.00 26.65 812.3
5 1 77.80 54.30 0.00 25.05 837.3
5 2 71.50 42.50 0.00 16.00 853.3 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 3 74.40 37.70 0.00 15.47 868.8
5 4 75.00 45.70 0.00 19.35 888.1
5 5 80.70 36.50 0.00 18.22 906.3
5 6 86.60 54.10 0.00 29.35 935.7
5 7 65.80 40.20 0.00 12.06 947.7
5 8 66.90 39.70 0.00 12.42 960.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 9 69.60 37.20 0.00 12.96 973.1
5 10 75.20 39.40 0.00 16.44 989.6
5 11 78.20 43.50 0.00 19.85 1009.4 Peak egg laying
5 12 81.30 45.60 0.00 22.45 1031.9
5 13 80.20 57.50 0.00 27.85 1059.7
5 14 84.10 52.10 0.00 27.10 1086.8
5 15 87.60 53.80 0.00 29.70 1116.5
5 16 90.60 46.50 0.00 27.55 1144.1
5 17 87.40 59.90 0.00 32.65 1176.7
5 18 69.20 53.30 0.00 20.25 1197.0
5 19 65.90 44.50 0.00 14.20 1211.2
5 20 64.20 39.50 0.00 11.01 1222.2
5 21 72.70 44.10 0.00 17.40 1239.6
5 22 67.90 48.60 0.00 17.25 1256.8
5 23 78.60 39.40 0.00 18.14 1275.0 Peak egg hatch
5 24 78.60 52.80 0.00 24.70 1299.7
5 25 76.80 52.70 0.00 23.75 1323.4
5 26 80.50 50.90 0.00 24.70 1348.1
5 27 78.20 51.50 0.00 23.85 1372.0
5 28 74.50 51.60 0.00 22.05 1394.0
5 29 80.70 39.00 0.00 19.04 1413.1
5 30 84.60 42.90 0.00 22.75 1435.8
5 31 91.70 51.40 0.00 30.55 1466.4
6 1 95.90 59.00 0.00 36.45 1502.8
6 2 101.70 59.00 0.00 39.35 1542.2
6 3 99.30 65.50 0.00 41.40 1583.6
6 4 90.60 59.80 0.00 34.20 1617.8
6 5 76.70 52.50 0.00 23.60 1641.4
6 6 67.10 42.40 0.00 13.75 1655.1
6 7 68.40 47.70 0.00 17.05 1672.2
6 8 76.60 51.60 0.00 23.10 1695.3
6 9 76.50 49.50 0.00 22.00 1717.3
6 10 76.90 50.00 0.00 22.45 1739.7
6 11 75.00 54.70 0.00 23.85 1763.6
6 12 81.50 56.10 0.00 27.80 1791.4
6 13 92.10 64.90 0.00 37.50 1828.9
6 14 87.60 49.20 0.00 27.40 1856.3 Pn
6 15 74.80 57.60 0.00 25.20 1881.5
6 16 79.50 44.90 0.00 21.20 1902.7
6 17 90.00 47.70 0.00 27.85 1930.5
6 18 94.30 53.50 0.00 32.90 1963.4
6 19 93.80 62.10 0.00 36.95 2000.4
6 20 91.50 69.40 0.00 39.45 2039.8
6 21 95.80 66.00 0.00 39.90 2079.7 Peak in density large larvae
6 22 101.40 67.80 0.00 43.60 2123.3
6 23 99.20 66.20 0.00 41.70 2165.0
6 24 98.40 57.70 0.00 37.05 2202.1
6 25 99.30 77.40 0.00 47.35 2249.4
6 26 107.00 66.50 0.00 45.75 2295.2
6 27 112.30 72.00 0.00 51.15 2346.3
6 28 113.20 79.90 0.00 55.55 2401.9
6 29 116.50 77.10 0.00 55.80 2457.7
6 30 112.30 78.10 0.00 54.20 2511.9
7 1 99.40 73.60 0.00 45.50 2557.4
7 2 96.90 60.20 0.00 37.55 2594.9
7 3 101.60 63.40 0.00 41.50 2636.4
7 4 100.80 60.20 0.00 39.50 2675.9
7 5 101.40 65.00 0.00 42.20 2718.1
7 6 100.00 65.50 0.00 41.75 2759.9
7 7 99.10 71.20 0.00 44.15 2804.0
7 8 95.70 60.60 0.00 37.15 2841.2
7 9 94.70 65.00 0.00 38.85 2880.0
7 10 102.80 58.40 0.00 39.60 2919.6
7 11 99.60 61.20 0.00 39.40 2959.0
7 12 101.10 60.40 0.00 39.75 2998.8
7 13 103.40 68.70 0.00 45.05 3043.8
7 14 104.20 67.50 0.00 44.85 3088.7
7 15 97.60 61.20 0.00 38.40 3127.1
7 16 92.70 61.40 0.00 36.05 3163.1
7 17 89.20 64.40 0.00 35.80 3198.9 Pn
7 18 96.90 62.60 0.00 38.75 3237.7
7 19 95.60 61.70 0.00 37.65 3275.3
7 20 94.90 62.40 0.00 37.65 3313.0
7 21 89.10 59.10 0.00 33.10 3346.1
7 22 85.50 51.10 0.00 27.30 3373.4
7 23 92.30 54.50 0.00 32.40 3405.8
7 24 97.30 60.30 0.00 37.80 3443.6
7 25 102.10 62.50 0.00 41.30 3484.9
7 26 96.00 61.40 0.00 37.70 3522.6
7 27 83.70 67.10 0.00 34.40 3557.0
7 28 96.30 58.70 0.00 36.50 3593.5
7 29 102.40 64.00 0.00 42.20 3635.7
7 30 109.70 70.30 0.00 49.00 3684.7
7 31 104.90 74.00 0.00 48.45 3733.1
8 1 91.40 76.90 0.00 43.15 3776.3
8 2 99.40 68.50 0.00 42.95 3819.2
8 3 104.20 67.60 0.00 44.90 3864.1
8 4 100.70 72.00 0.00 45.35 3909.5
8 5 97.00 64.60 0.00 39.80 3949.3
8 6 92.10 67.60 0.00 38.85 3988.1
8 7 95.30 62.80 0.00 38.05 4026.2
8 8 81.80 61.60 0.00 30.70 4056.9
8 9 86.70 53.20 0.00 28.95 4085.8
8 10 96.60 56.30 0.00 35.45 4121.3
8 11 105.10 61.60 0.00 42.35 4163.6
8 12 102.90 71.30 0.00 46.10 4209.7
8 13 96.70 64.10 0.00 39.40 4249.1
8 14 103.40 64.10 0.00 42.75 4291.9
8 15 102.60 65.50 0.00 43.05 4334.9
8 16 100.90 63.70 0.00 41.30 4376.2
8 17 76.70 62.30 0.00 28.50 4404.7
8 18 82.90 58.70 0.00 29.80 4434.5
8 19 89.90 53.20 0.00 30.55 4465.1
8 20 81.40 61.90 0.00 30.65 4495.7
8 21 80.20 56.20 0.00 27.20 4522.9
8 22 83.30 55.10 0.00 28.20 4551.1
8 23 75.90 48.80 0.00 21.35 4572.5
8 24 82.80 44.20 0.00 22.50 4595.0
8 25 85.70 46.60 0.00 25.15 4620.1
8 26 83.40 56.30 0.00 28.85 4649.0
8 27 81.20 53.60 0.00 26.40 4675.4
8 28 85.80 49.30 0.00 26.55 4701.9
8 29 89.60 48.70 0.00 28.15 4730.1
8 30 88.10 52.10 0.00 29.10 4759.2
8 31 77.10 49.30 0.00 22.20 4781.4
9 1 77.00 44.10 0.00 19.55 4800.9
9 2 81.70 48.40 0.00 24.05 4825.0
9 3 85.30 45.80 0.00 24.55 4849.5
9 4 89.60 45.80 0.00 26.70 4876.2
9 5 93.90 54.40 0.00 33.15 4909.4
9 6 89.30 58.00 0.00 32.65 4942.0
9 7 89.80 52.00 0.00 29.90 4971.9
9 8 94.80 57.30 0.00 35.05 5007.0
9 9 87.20 54.70 0.00 29.95 5036.9
9 10 73.60 63.20 0.00 27.40 5064.3
9 11 78.00 57.20 0.00 26.60 5090.9
9 12 82.80 54.30 0.00 27.55 5118.5
9 13 77.60 49.60 0.00 22.60 5141.1 Pn
9 14 83.40 44.20 0.00 22.80 5163.9
9 15 78.80 52.50 0.00 24.65 5188.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 HPROS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-2-21 | 853 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-8-21 | 960 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-11-21 | 1009 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-23-21 | 1275 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-21-21 | 2080 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?100597)
