Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather dataorange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 44.30 31.10 0.00 0.72 0.7 * START *
1 2 40.70 29.70 0.05 0.00 0.7
1 3 44.40 36.40 0.06 0.99 1.7
1 4 45.30 35.50 0.18 1.27 3.0
1 5 58.00 43.10 0.02 9.55 12.5
1 6 48.10 37.80 0.17 2.73 15.3
1 7 50.80 38.10 0.22 4.05 19.3
1 8 49.20 40.20 0.71 3.80 23.1
1 9 50.60 38.50 0.40 4.04 27.2
1 10 51.90 34.60 0.04 3.97 31.1
1 11 48.20 42.50 0.50 4.35 35.5
1 12 52.10 43.60 0.52 6.85 42.3
1 13 53.40 46.00 0.27 8.70 51.0
1 14 49.40 44.00 0.29 5.70 56.7
1 15 48.80 44.50 0.46 5.65 62.4
1 16 50.10 39.50 0.06 4.04 66.4
1 17 47.60 42.60 0.00 4.10 70.5
1 18 47.00 38.70 0.29 2.38 72.9
1 19 39.10 35.00 0.00 0.00 72.9
1 20 38.10 35.10 0.00 0.00 72.9
1 21 43.60 33.20 0.09 0.57 73.5
1 22 44.20 30.00 0.00 0.66 74.1
1 23 48.70 35.90 0.00 2.73 76.9
1 24 50.40 31.00 0.00 2.94 79.8
1 25 48.50 33.20 0.00 2.36 82.2
1 26 44.10 35.50 0.00 0.82 83.0
1 27 52.40 36.80 0.02 4.55 87.5
1 28 44.00 35.00 0.08 0.76 88.3
1 29 37.80 27.30 0.00 0.00 88.3
1 30 42.50 20.50 0.00 0.17 88.5
1 31 38.80 25.20 0.00 0.00 88.5
2 1 45.40 25.90 0.00 0.91 89.4
2 2 47.10 24.70 0.00 1.39 90.8
2 3 49.50 32.70 0.27 2.72 93.5
2 4 48.30 41.60 0.11 3.95 97.4
2 5 50.90 38.50 0.27 4.19 101.6
2 6 50.30 38.00 0.06 3.80 105.4
2 7 50.80 40.30 0.18 4.63 110.0
2 8 48.00 31.70 0.03 2.05 112.1
2 9 55.20 33.40 0.02 5.28 117.4
2 10 54.90 42.30 0.01 7.60 125.0
2 11 51.30 33.90 0.00 3.62 128.6
2 12 50.20 28.10 0.00 2.64 131.2
2 13 46.20 34.10 0.24 1.52 132.7
2 14 43.20 29.40 0.14 0.38 133.1
2 15 44.00 25.70 0.00 0.52 133.7
2 16 43.10 28.70 0.00 0.35 134.0
2 17 48.90 36.40 0.01 2.88 136.9
2 18 49.40 38.90 0.00 3.56 140.4
2 19 50.80 37.30 0.00 3.90 144.3
2 20 51.50 44.20 0.00 6.85 151.2
2 21 49.50 34.70 0.25 2.93 154.1
2 22 40.70 28.70 0.15 0.00 154.1
2 23 28.60 21.30 0.00 0.00 154.1
2 24 35.30 12.10 0.06 0.00 154.1
2 25 39.40 10.50 0.01 0.00 154.1
2 26 38.20 30.20 0.37 0.00 154.1
2 27 44.10 33.20 0.15 0.72 154.8
2 28 37.80 32.20 0.40 0.00 154.8
3 1 45.30 26.60 0.01 0.90 155.7
3 2 48.50 32.80 0.10 2.33 158.1
3 3 43.40 30.60 0.23 0.45 158.5
3 4 43.80 35.70 0.54 0.73 159.2
3 5 43.80 33.30 0.01 0.63 159.9
3 6 46.70 36.20 0.21 1.90 161.8
3 7 46.90 35.40 0.22 1.91 163.7
3 8 44.10 33.60 0.09 0.74 164.4
3 9 42.70 38.80 0.58 0.50 164.9
3 10 46.40 34.60 0.08 1.63 166.6
3 11 51.50 35.20 0.01 3.88 170.4
3 12 48.10 30.90 0.25 2.03 172.5
3 13 49.90 37.90 0.50 3.59 176.0
3 14 52.40 37.20 0.00 4.63 180.7
3 15 50.70 32.20 0.00 3.17 183.8
3 16 58.90 33.10 0.00 6.92 190.8
3 17 61.50 32.10 0.00 7.95 198.7
3 18 65.60 34.40 0.00 10.32 209.0
3 19 53.50 42.90 0.17 7.20 216.2
3 20 49.80 42.10 0.03 4.95 221.2
3 21 60.90 37.50 0.00 8.78 230.0
3 22 63.10 38.00 0.09 10.00 240.0
3 23 47.30 38.00 0.10 2.40 242.4
3 24 45.20 32.60 0.48 1.07 243.4
3 25 44.80 31.90 0.20 0.90 244.3
3 26 48.20 31.30 0.22 2.09 246.4
3 27 52.60 34.80 0.01 4.31 250.7
3 28 46.70 41.20 0.61 2.95 253.7
3 29 58.20 33.30 0.01 6.63 260.3
3 30 56.40 39.00 0.00 6.99 267.3
3 31 47.80 41.40 0.08 3.60 270.9
4 1 49.20 38.00 0.01 3.28 274.2 Px Pn
4 2 45.60 35.90 0.24 1.42 275.6
4 3 50.10 30.70 0.05 2.79 278.4
4 4 48.60 34.60 0.10 2.54 280.9
4 5 48.70 33.90 0.06 2.51 283.4
4 6 53.60 44.70 0.52 8.15 291.6
4 7 55.80 46.00 0.21 9.90 301.5
4 8 55.70 43.00 0.00 8.35 309.8
4 9 54.00 47.30 0.72 9.65 319.5
4 10 50.10 41.50 1.40 4.80 324.3
4 11 53.50 40.30 0.02 5.97 330.3
4 12 51.50 33.40 0.33 3.64 333.9
4 13 51.00 31.90 0.00 3.27 337.2
4 14 59.90 32.10 0.00 7.21 344.4
4 15 55.50 38.70 0.00 6.47 350.9
4 16 51.00 41.40 0.25 5.20 356.1
4 17 51.50 36.50 0.23 4.08 360.1
4 18 46.70 36.20 0.42 1.90 362.0
4 19 50.10 36.30 0.10 3.41 365.4
4 20 47.10 31.50 0.43 1.69 367.1
4 21 55.60 39.00 0.00 6.60 373.7
4 22 63.30 48.00 0.33 14.65 388.4
4 23 54.80 46.80 0.07 9.80 398.2
4 24 57.20 43.70 0.04 9.45 407.6
4 25 66.30 39.50 0.00 12.05 419.7
4 26 75.60 42.80 0.00 18.20 437.9
4 27 79.80 49.70 0.00 23.75 461.6
4 28 87.40 49.70 0.00 27.55 489.2
4 29 80.20 49.80 0.00 24.00 513.2
4 30 63.70 48.00 0.00 14.85 528.0
5 1 59.40 46.50 0.00 11.95 540.0
5 2 65.40 51.30 0.00 17.35 557.3
5 3 73.00 43.80 0.00 17.40 574.7
5 4 55.60 47.40 0.62 10.50 585.2
5 5 59.50 47.80 0.00 12.65 597.9
5 6 62.90 46.90 0.00 13.90 611.8
5 7 64.20 46.50 0.00 14.35 626.1
5 8 65.50 42.70 0.02 13.10 639.2
5 9 65.40 40.10 0.00 11.82 651.1
5 10 76.80 43.70 0.00 19.25 670.3
5 11 78.10 46.70 0.00 21.40 691.7
5 12 85.70 51.20 0.00 27.45 719.2
5 13 89.30 53.70 0.00 30.50 749.7
5 14 87.50 57.00 0.00 31.25 780.9
5 15 88.60 57.00 0.00 31.80 812.7
5 16 84.80 57.90 0.00 30.35 843.1
5 17 87.30 56.00 0.00 30.65 873.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 18 82.30 58.20 0.00 29.25 903.0
5 19 83.30 52.00 0.00 26.65 929.6
5 20 80.60 57.00 0.00 27.80 957.4 Peak female adult emergence
5 21 64.20 49.20 0.00 15.70 973.1
5 22 63.80 50.40 0.00 16.10 989.2
5 23 64.70 46.10 0.00 14.40 1003.6 Peak egg laying
5 24 74.00 47.30 0.00 19.65 1023.3
5 25 81.10 53.50 0.00 26.30 1049.6
5 26 84.60 55.00 0.00 28.80 1078.4
5 27 74.40 52.00 0.00 22.20 1100.6
5 28 71.80 46.40 0.00 18.10 1118.7
5 29 77.50 46.40 0.00 20.95 1139.6
5 30 64.10 46.90 0.00 14.50 1154.1
5 31 64.10 39.80 0.00 11.06 1165.2
6 1 71.50 39.30 0.00 14.57 1179.7
6 2 76.60 43.20 0.00 18.90 1198.6
6 3 78.80 46.50 0.00 21.65 1220.3
6 4 76.10 47.90 0.00 21.00 1241.3
6 5 81.70 54.90 0.00 27.30 1268.6
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1269 .
QA 99% ok
This year is about versus QA 9 days ahead 2022 ok 4 days behind 2021 ok 5 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 6 79.00 52.00 0.00 24.50 1293.1 Sunny Peak egg hatch
6 7 90.00 56.00 0.00 32.00 1325.1 Mostly_Sunny
6 8 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 1354.1 Partly_Cloudy
6 9 83.00 54.00 0.00 27.50 1381.6 Partly_Cloudy_2%_precip
6 10 76.00 53.00 0.00 23.50 1405.1 Partly_Cloudy_7%_precip
6 11 76.00 52.00 0.00 23.00 1428.1 Partly_Cloudy_7%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 FOGO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 73.70 50.30 0.03 21.00 1449.1 *hist_fcst*
6 13 71.20 50.30 0.11 19.75 1468.8 *hist_fcst*
6 14 67.70 48.50 0.12 17.10 1485.9 *hist_fcst*
6 15 69.30 47.30 0.05 17.30 1503.2 *hist_fcst*
6 16 71.40 48.80 0.09 19.10 1522.3 *hist_fcst*
6 17 72.70 49.90 0.01 20.30 1542.6 *hist_fcst*
6 18 75.30 50.70 0.00 22.00 1564.6 *hist_fcst*
6 19 74.30 51.40 0.04 21.85 1586.5 *hist_fcst*
6 20 77.20 50.10 0.02 22.65 1609.1 *hist_fcst*
6 21 77.70 51.40 0.02 23.55 1632.7 *hist_fcst*
6 22 76.80 52.00 0.00 23.40 1656.1 *hist_fcst*
6 23 78.90 52.20 0.02 24.55 1680.6 *hist_fcst*
6 24 77.00 53.40 0.06 24.20 1704.8 *hist_fcst*
6 25 78.70 53.60 0.02 25.15 1730.0 *hist_fcst*
6 26 80.20 53.80 0.02 26.00 1756.0 *hist_fcst*
6 27 81.00 56.40 0.07 27.70 1783.7 *hist_fcst*
6 28 79.80 55.50 0.05 26.65 1810.3 *hist_fcst*
6 29 80.30 54.10 0.01 26.20 1836.5 *hist_fcst*
6 30 80.80 54.60 0.01 26.70 1863.2 *hist_fcst*
7 1 81.00 56.10 0.01 27.55 1890.8 *hist_fcst*
7 2 80.80 55.90 0.02 27.35 1918.1 *hist_fcst*
7 3 79.30 54.30 0.00 25.80 1943.9 *hist_fcst*
7 4 77.70 52.40 0.00 24.05 1968.0 *hist_fcst*
7 5 79.70 52.60 0.00 25.15 1993.1 *hist_fcst*
7 6 81.70 53.40 0.00 26.55 2019.7 *hist_fcst*
7 7 81.30 53.70 0.00 26.50 2046.2 *hist_fcst*
7 8 78.50 54.30 0.01 25.40 2071.6 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 9 82.60 54.10 0.01 27.35 2098.9 *hist_fcst*
7 10 80.20 54.60 0.03 26.40 2125.3 *hist_fcst*
7 11 79.20 54.40 0.00 25.80 2151.1 *hist_fcst*
7 12 80.50 54.70 0.00 26.60 2177.7 *hist_fcst*
7 13 82.60 55.20 0.00 27.90 2205.6 *hist_fcst*
7 14 80.70 53.80 0.00 26.25 2231.9 *hist_fcst*
7 15 84.90 54.30 0.00 28.60 2260.5 *hist_fcst*
7 16 82.50 55.10 0.00 27.80 2288.3 *hist_fcst*
7 17 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2316.2 *hist_fcst*
7 18 79.40 54.80 0.00 26.10 2342.3 *hist_fcst*
7 19 81.70 54.50 0.00 27.10 2369.4 *hist_fcst*
7 20 82.30 54.60 0.00 27.45 2396.8 *hist_fcst*
7 21 80.40 53.70 0.00 26.05 2422.9 *hist_fcst*
7 22 81.80 53.80 0.00 26.80 2449.7 *hist_fcst*
7 23 80.30 54.40 0.01 26.35 2476.0 *hist_fcst*
7 24 79.70 53.30 0.03 25.50 2501.5 *hist_fcst*
7 25 83.10 54.20 0.00 27.65 2529.2 *hist_fcst*
7 26 85.30 54.80 0.02 29.05 2558.2 *hist_fcst*
7 27 87.40 55.20 0.00 30.30 2588.5 *hist_fcst*
7 28 84.00 55.30 0.00 28.65 2617.2 *hist_fcst*
7 29 86.30 55.10 0.00 29.70 2646.9 *hist_fcst*
7 30 89.40 56.60 0.00 32.00 2678.9 *hist_fcst*
7 31 88.20 57.20 0.00 31.70 2710.6 *hist_fcst*
8 1 85.80 56.30 0.00 30.05 2740.6 *hist_fcst*
8 2 85.70 55.90 0.00 29.80 2770.4 *hist_fcst*
8 3 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2799.2 *hist_fcst*
8 4 86.40 56.80 0.00 30.60 2829.8 *hist_fcst*
8 5 90.80 56.80 0.00 32.80 2862.6 *hist_fcst*
8 6 85.50 55.30 0.00 29.40 2892.0 *hist_fcst*
8 7 84.00 54.40 0.01 28.20 2920.2 *hist_fcst*
8 8 82.60 54.70 0.00 27.65 2947.9 *hist_fcst*
8 9 79.30 55.70 0.01 26.50 2974.4 *hist_fcst*
8 10 83.70 55.50 0.01 28.60 3003.0 *hist_fcst*
8 11 85.40 58.00 0.02 30.70 3033.7 *hist_fcst*
8 12 85.80 57.50 0.00 30.65 3064.3 *hist_fcst*
8 13 84.80 56.90 0.01 29.85 3094.2 *hist_fcst*
8 14 85.90 56.10 0.01 30.00 3124.2 *hist_fcst*
8 15 84.50 56.60 0.01 29.55 3153.7 *hist_fcst*
8 16 86.10 57.10 0.00 30.60 3184.3 *hist_fcst*
8 17 85.70 56.40 0.00 30.05 3214.4 *hist_fcst*
8 18 83.80 55.90 0.00 28.85 3243.2 *hist_fcst*
8 19 86.10 55.60 0.00 29.85 3273.1 *hist_fcst*
8 20 85.50 55.40 0.00 29.45 3302.5 *hist_fcst*
8 21 82.20 53.50 0.00 26.85 3329.4 *hist_fcst*
8 22 80.20 52.90 0.00 25.55 3354.9 *hist_fcst*
8 23 79.50 50.80 0.00 24.15 3379.1 *hist_fcst*
8 24 80.40 51.50 0.00 24.95 3404.0 *hist_fcst*
8 25 79.70 51.50 0.00 24.60 3428.6 *hist_fcst*
8 26 80.90 51.60 0.00 25.25 3453.9 *hist_fcst*
8 27 82.40 54.30 0.02 27.35 3481.2 *hist_fcst*
8 28 83.40 54.90 0.01 28.15 3509.4 *hist_fcst*
8 29 85.30 55.20 0.02 29.25 3538.6 *hist_fcst*
8 30 79.80 54.50 0.06 26.15 3564.8 *hist_fcst*
8 31 75.70 52.90 0.06 23.30 3588.1 *hist_fcst*
9 1 76.80 51.70 0.02 23.25 3611.3 *hist_fcst*
9 2 79.50 51.60 0.01 24.55 3635.9 *hist_fcst*
9 3 81.00 50.90 0.01 24.95 3660.8 *hist_fcst*
9 4 80.90 51.10 0.01 25.00 3685.8 *hist_fcst*
9 5 80.80 51.50 0.01 25.15 3711.0 *hist_fcst*
9 6 81.70 53.80 0.06 26.75 3737.7 *hist_fcst*
9 7 81.00 54.00 0.05 26.50 3764.2 *hist_fcst*
9 8 82.00 53.90 0.01 26.95 3791.2 *hist_fcst*
9 9 78.20 54.50 0.04 25.35 3816.5 *hist_fcst*
9 10 79.10 54.20 0.04 25.65 3842.2 *hist_fcst*
9 11 77.70 52.00 0.02 23.85 3866.0 *hist_fcst*
9 12 79.20 50.40 0.02 23.80 3889.8 *hist_fcst*
9 13 79.10 50.40 0.01 23.75 3913.6 *hist_fcst*
9 14 76.70 49.00 0.03 21.85 3935.4 *hist_fcst*
9 15 77.40 48.70 0.02 22.05 3957.5 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988 Location: 2023 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1269 . QA 99% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME This year is about versus QA 9 days ahead 2022 ok 4 days behind 2021 ok 5 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Date DDs Event 5-17-23 874 Peak pheromone trap catch 5-20-23 957 Peak female adult emergence 5-23-23 1004 Peak egg laying 6-6-23 1293 Peak egg hatch 7-8-23 2072 Peak in density large larvae
