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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 30.90 23.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 46.00 27.80 0.41 1.15 1.1
1 3 44.90 33.40 1.64 1.00 2.1
1 4 43.10 33.70 0.47 0.43 2.6
1 5 40.00 37.20 0.61 0.00 2.6
1 6 54.40 37.60 0.77 5.66 8.2
1 7 49.00 38.70 0.54 3.32 11.6
1 8 46.60 33.70 0.01 1.65 13.2
1 9 51.10 29.10 0.01 3.06 16.3
1 10 43.60 31.20 0.10 0.52 16.8
1 11 52.60 40.40 0.07 5.56 22.3
1 12 60.20 39.20 0.00 8.93 31.3
1 13 50.80 39.70 0.15 4.44 35.7
1 14 52.40 36.20 0.00 4.45 40.2
1 15 43.20 34.10 0.01 0.47 40.6
1 16 41.50 36.10 0.01 0.07 40.7
1 17 39.30 37.00 0.00 0.00 40.7
1 18 43.40 37.10 0.08 0.66 41.3
1 19 51.10 41.80 0.28 5.45 46.8
1 20 58.10 41.60 0.03 8.85 55.6
1 21 48.00 35.10 0.01 2.34 58.0
1 22 50.20 33.00 0.00 3.04 61.0
1 23 53.30 27.90 0.00 3.84 64.9
1 24 36.80 30.00 0.01 0.00 64.9
1 25 50.20 28.20 0.01 2.65 67.5
1 26 54.10 25.60 0.00 3.98 71.5
1 27 48.50 27.10 0.01 1.96 73.5
1 28 49.20 24.70 0.00 2.09 75.5
1 29 49.50 25.10 0.00 2.21 77.8
1 30 47.00 29.90 0.23 1.57 79.3
1 31 46.70 30.70 0.00 1.50 80.8
2 1 44.80 30.00 0.01 0.84 81.7
2 2 42.90 38.60 0.06 0.56 82.2
2 3 48.20 36.20 0.02 2.55 84.8
2 4 44.00 33.20 0.02 0.69 85.5
2 5 51.10 36.90 0.00 3.96 89.4
2 6 58.80 28.40 0.00 6.21 95.6
2 7 52.40 32.10 0.00 3.88 99.5
2 8 52.20 30.90 0.01 3.67 103.2
2 9 58.60 36.60 0.00 7.45 110.7
2 10 53.70 37.80 0.00 5.37 116.0
2 11 64.60 32.60 0.01 9.48 125.5
2 12 61.90 34.50 0.00 8.58 134.1
2 13 58.60 29.20 0.00 6.22 140.3
2 14 50.10 39.30 0.07 3.99 144.3
2 15 47.60 33.30 0.00 2.01 146.3
2 16 51.80 39.60 0.02 4.90 151.2
2 17 50.60 41.00 0.01 4.80 156.0
2 18 59.70 40.10 0.00 8.98 165.0
2 19 50.10 32.60 0.00 2.96 167.9
2 20 47.90 36.30 0.04 2.43 170.4
2 21 44.10 33.90 0.05 0.75 171.1
2 22 36.20 28.20 0.00 0.00 171.1
2 23 37.10 22.70 0.00 0.00 171.1
2 24 40.30 26.00 0.01 0.00 171.1
2 25 50.10 21.60 0.00 2.26 173.4
2 26 41.70 28.10 0.46 0.07 173.5
2 27 51.90 38.50 0.40 4.67 178.1
2 28 58.30 50.40 2.28 13.35 191.5
3 1 57.90 50.50 0.20 13.20 204.7
3 2 53.20 47.40 0.20 9.30 214.0
3 3 51.50 37.10 0.00 4.19 218.2
3 4 49.40 36.30 0.01 3.09 221.3
3 5 55.70 34.00 0.01 5.60 226.8
3 6 52.50 32.20 0.00 3.93 230.8
3 7 52.20 31.70 0.00 3.75 234.5
3 8 52.10 34.40 0.00 4.03 238.6
3 9 50.10 32.30 0.03 2.93 241.5
3 10 51.10 26.70 0.00 2.89 244.4
3 11 58.20 30.30 0.00 6.19 250.6
3 12 56.60 29.40 0.21 5.38 256.0
3 13 53.60 41.70 0.39 6.65 262.6
3 14 53.10 44.10 0.21 7.60 270.2
3 15 55.70 40.40 0.06 7.10 277.3
3 16 55.70 34.70 0.00 5.71 283.0
3 17 49.70 36.00 0.01 3.19 286.2
3 18 56.00 44.00 0.01 9.00 295.2
3 19 52.20 37.30 0.23 4.55 299.8
3 20 48.60 35.60 0.03 2.65 302.4
3 21 50.00 41.70 0.41 4.85 307.3
3 22 68.00 49.70 0.01 17.85 325.1
3 23 59.80 41.90 0.01 9.85 335.0
3 24 63.90 33.20 0.00 9.26 344.2
3 25 60.20 42.00 0.00 10.10 354.3
3 26 62.70 46.20 0.00 13.45 367.8
3 27 67.50 44.90 0.00 15.20 383.0
3 28 60.50 45.90 0.00 12.20 395.2
3 29 59.00 43.20 0.00 10.10 405.3
3 30 58.00 39.50 0.00 7.93 413.2
3 31 54.10 36.50 0.01 5.29 418.5
4 1 58.20 34.00 0.00 6.75 425.2
4 2 57.50 40.00 0.01 7.85 433.1
4 3 53.70 40.70 0.23 6.22 439.3
4 4 52.20 40.10 1.10 5.25 444.6
4 5 53.20 33.50 0.02 4.40 449.0
4 6 64.10 31.60 0.01 9.06 458.0
4 7 77.00 37.90 0.00 16.82 474.9
4 8 57.70 41.80 0.05 8.75 483.6
4 9 52.40 33.40 0.05 4.03 487.6
4 10 44.80 31.90 0.34 0.90 488.5
4 11 48.60 31.90 0.59 2.29 490.8
4 12 47.10 34.30 0.42 1.89 492.7
4 13 47.80 32.50 0.10 2.03 494.8
4 14 48.30 29.80 0.01 2.03 496.8
4 15 51.70 32.20 0.00 3.59 500.4
4 16 53.90 36.10 0.00 5.12 505.5
4 17 55.80 30.80 0.00 5.20 510.7
4 18 48.90 41.10 0.51 4.00 514.7
4 19 50.10 39.20 0.15 3.97 518.7
4 20 52.10 38.10 0.43 4.67 523.3
4 21 54.90 44.20 0.48 8.55 531.9
4 22 58.60 39.20 0.05 8.13 540.0
4 23 63.50 35.40 0.01 9.53 549.6
4 24 68.30 37.00 0.00 12.26 561.8
4 25 61.10 45.00 0.03 12.05 573.9
4 26 55.00 40.10 0.08 6.64 580.5
4 27 56.00 41.40 0.09 7.70 588.2
4 28 53.80 41.80 0.04 6.80 595.0
4 29 57.90 41.10 0.26 8.50 603.5
4 30 58.20 47.00 0.39 11.60 615.1
5 1 62.90 41.60 0.01 11.25 626.4
5 2 57.90 45.50 0.26 10.70 637.1
5 3 60.70 44.60 0.02 11.65 648.7
5 4 71.00 42.70 0.00 15.85 664.6
5 5 57.60 44.40 0.26 10.00 674.6
5 6 60.00 45.90 0.64 11.95 686.5
5 7 54.20 43.50 0.14 7.85 694.4
5 8 51.50 38.70 0.05 4.52 698.9
5 9 52.50 34.30 0.05 4.20 703.1
5 10 60.50 38.60 0.01 8.89 712.0
5 11 60.10 39.10 0.00 8.84 720.8
5 12 54.20 40.00 0.15 6.21 727.0
5 13 53.90 32.20 0.53 4.54 731.6
5 14 70.00 48.00 0.22 18.00 749.6
5 15 67.80 53.60 0.42 19.70 769.3
5 16 61.80 46.10 0.00 12.95 782.2
5 17 64.40 41.80 0.00 12.10 794.3
5 18 60.80 46.00 0.10 12.40 806.7
5 19 57.40 41.30 0.08 8.35 815.1
5 20 59.80 34.90 0.01 7.67 822.7
5 21 70.50 41.70 0.00 15.10 837.8
5 22 72.80 44.20 0.00 17.50 855.3 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 23 70.50 50.10 0.00 19.30 874.6
5 24 65.90 43.50 0.00 13.70 888.3
5 25 73.10 54.20 0.00 22.65 911.0
5 26 70.60 54.00 0.00 21.30 932.3
5 27 61.50 52.60 0.00 16.05 948.3
5 28 58.00 48.10 0.52 12.05 960.4 Peak female adult emergence
5 29 58.00 48.40 0.06 12.20 972.6
5 30 62.10 46.10 0.00 13.10 985.7
5 31 75.70 45.00 0.00 19.35 1005.0 Peak egg laying
6 1 77.60 55.70 0.00 25.65 1030.7
6 2 76.80 51.50 0.00 23.15 1053.8
6 3 64.90 54.00 0.03 18.45 1072.3
6 4 61.40 53.50 0.59 16.45 1088.7
6 5 67.80 54.50 0.07 20.15 1108.9
6 6 65.00 51.50 0.00 17.25 1126.1
6 7 61.90 43.20 0.00 11.55 1137.7 Px
6 8 73.00 54.60 0.00 22.80 1160.5
6 9 69.10 54.00 0.12 20.55 1181.0
6 10 66.40 56.90 0.66 20.65 1201.7
6 11 65.00 53.20 0.09 18.10 1219.8
6 12 59.40 50.30 0.01 13.85 1233.6
6 13 61.00 45.90 0.00 12.45 1246.1
6 14 63.50 49.30 0.01 15.40 1261.5
6 15 67.60 46.70 0.04 16.15 1277.6 Peak egg hatch
6 16 68.10 53.10 0.01 19.60 1297.2
6 17 60.40 51.90 0.28 15.15 1312.4
6 18 63.10 48.30 0.02 14.70 1327.1
6 19 64.70 51.50 0.00 17.10 1344.2
6 20 70.90 51.70 0.00 20.30 1364.5
6 21 80.70 51.10 0.00 24.90 1389.4
6 22 76.90 53.00 0.00 23.95 1413.3
6 23 75.30 45.30 0.00 19.30 1432.6
6 24 83.80 51.90 0.00 26.85 1459.5
6 25 90.90 58.40 0.00 33.65 1493.1
6 26 97.80 58.00 0.00 36.90 1530.0
6 27 91.90 59.00 0.00 34.45 1564.5
6 28 71.10 53.30 0.00 21.20 1585.7
6 29 75.70 48.90 0.00 21.30 1607.0
6 30 80.00 50.60 0.00 24.30 1631.3
7 1 78.60 55.20 0.00 25.90 1657.2
7 2 70.70 55.00 0.00 21.85 1679.0
7 3 70.20 55.90 0.00 22.05 1701.1
7 4 77.00 49.00 0.00 22.00 1723.1
7 5 70.10 56.60 0.07 22.35 1745.4
7 6 73.40 60.50 0.04 25.95 1771.4
7 7 75.90 57.50 0.00 25.70 1797.1
7 8 81.60 59.80 0.00 29.70 1826.8
7 9 79.90 57.60 0.00 27.75 1854.5
7 10 80.00 51.90 0.00 24.95 1879.5
7 11 96.60 62.40 0.00 38.50 1918.0
7 12 91.30 58.90 0.00 34.10 1952.1
7 13 78.20 55.00 0.00 25.60 1977.7
7 14 86.10 50.90 0.00 27.50 2005.2
7 15 82.70 51.10 0.00 25.90 2031.1
7 16 74.30 61.00 0.00 26.65 2057.7
7 17 71.70 54.90 0.00 22.30 2080.0 Peak in density large larvae
7 18 78.40 47.00 0.00 21.70 2101.7
7 19 90.80 59.60 0.00 34.20 2135.9
7 20 91.30 58.70 0.00 34.00 2169.9
7 21 85.60 57.30 0.00 30.45 2200.4
7 22 78.70 58.20 0.00 27.45 2227.8
7 23 78.10 51.40 0.00 23.75 2251.6
7 24 91.70 56.40 0.00 33.05 2284.6
7 25 100.10 65.00 0.00 41.55 2326.2
7 26 100.00 59.50 0.00 38.75 2364.9
7 27 97.80 63.20 0.00 39.50 2404.4
7 28 98.20 63.00 0.00 39.60 2444.0
7 29 100.80 64.90 0.00 41.85 2485.9
7 30 96.80 66.80 0.00 40.80 2526.7 Px
7 31 87.90 60.60 0.00 33.25 2559.9 Px Pn
8 1 88.70 64.60 0.00 35.65 2595.6
8 2 86.30 58.00 0.00 31.15 2626.7
8 3 84.80 54.70 0.00 28.75 2655.5
8 4 76.70 54.70 0.00 24.70 2680.2
8 5 81.70 55.00 0.00 27.35 2707.5
8 6 91.50 52.50 0.00 31.00 2738.5
8 7 98.80 56.40 0.00 36.60 2775.1
8 8 85.10 61.30 0.00 32.20 2807.3
8 9 86.60 59.60 0.00 32.10 2839.4
8 10 75.80 59.50 0.05 26.65 2866.1
8 11 86.30 53.10 0.00 28.70 2894.8
8 12 76.80 55.40 0.28 25.10 2919.9
8 13 76.50 53.70 0.00 24.10 2944.0
8 14 85.70 51.80 0.00 27.75 2971.7
8 15 90.40 54.30 0.00 31.35 3003.1
8 16 90.70 56.50 0.00 32.60 3035.7
8 17 100.50 66.50 0.00 42.50 3078.2
8 18 90.60 66.20 0.00 37.40 3115.6
8 19 84.20 65.20 0.00 33.70 3149.3
8 20 78.20 62.00 0.00 29.10 3178.4
8 21 88.80 55.10 0.00 30.95 3209.3
8 22 86.40 60.20 0.00 32.30 3241.6
8 23 86.10 57.50 0.00 30.80 3272.4
8 24 93.90 59.90 0.00 35.90 3308.3
8 25 92.80 62.00 0.00 36.40 3344.7
8 26 78.80 56.00 0.00 26.40 3371.1
8 27 72.30 58.30 0.00 24.30 3395.4
8 28 79.10 49.80 0.00 23.45 3418.9
8 29 92.50 57.00 0.00 33.75 3452.6
8 30 97.50 57.70 0.00 36.60 3489.2
8 31 91.00 60.20 0.00 34.60 3523.8
9 1 90.90 54.40 0.00 31.65 3555.5
9 2 90.80 55.50 0.00 32.15 3587.6
9 3 78.00 58.30 0.00 27.15 3614.8
9 4 83.50 51.70 0.00 26.60 3641.4
9 5 78.80 52.00 0.00 24.40 3665.8
9 6 92.70 49.90 0.00 30.30 3696.1
9 7 81.90 58.50 0.00 29.20 3725.3
9 8 80.30 45.90 0.00 22.10 3747.4
9 9 85.90 58.00 0.00 30.95 3778.3
9 10 87.80 61.40 0.00 33.60 3811.9
9 11 79.30 57.20 0.05 27.25 3839.2
9 12 75.00 60.00 0.01 26.50 3865.7
9 13 71.20 60.60 0.00 24.90 3890.6
9 14 72.80 59.20 0.00 25.00 3915.6
9 15 74.50 58.20 0.00 25.35 3940.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 FOGO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-22-22 | 855 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-28-22 | 960 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-31-22 | 1005 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-15-22 | 1278 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-17-22 | 2080 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?38148)
