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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 50.90 46.30 0.24 7.60 7.6 * START *
1 2 50.10 46.60 1.43 7.35 14.9
1 3 51.00 39.10 0.55 4.38 19.3
1 4 52.80 43.40 0.72 7.10 26.4
1 5 46.50 42.20 0.14 3.35 29.8
1 6 47.70 43.70 0.48 4.70 34.5
1 7 49.80 41.40 0.02 4.60 39.1
1 8 52.60 34.80 0.49 4.31 43.4
1 9 45.20 30.40 0.01 0.98 44.4
1 10 45.60 39.30 0.20 1.84 46.2
1 11 47.70 42.30 0.66 4.00 50.2
1 12 57.40 48.00 2.77 11.70 61.9
1 13 58.00 41.70 0.05 8.85 70.8
1 14 54.10 37.00 0.00 5.39 76.1
1 15 51.40 44.70 0.05 7.05 83.2
1 16 48.10 43.00 0.00 4.55 87.7
1 17 49.70 39.10 0.03 3.75 91.5
1 18 52.50 35.50 0.01 4.38 95.9
1 19 52.10 31.40 0.00 3.68 99.6
1 20 45.10 29.10 0.00 0.91 100.5
1 21 47.40 40.20 0.17 2.91 103.4
1 22 50.30 35.50 0.00 3.38 106.8
1 23 44.90 28.10 0.00 0.82 107.6
1 24 38.00 35.00 0.42 0.00 107.6
1 25 40.50 33.30 0.01 0.00 107.6
1 26 38.30 32.20 0.37 0.00 107.6
1 27 37.60 32.20 0.65 0.00 107.6
1 28 46.20 32.10 0.04 1.40 109.0
1 29 43.70 29.80 0.07 0.52 109.5
1 30 50.10 40.20 0.13 4.25 113.7
1 31 53.70 46.80 0.26 9.25 123.0
2 1 49.50 46.30 0.74 6.90 129.9
2 2 48.50 40.50 0.57 3.55 133.4
2 3 45.40 35.60 0.21 1.32 134.8
2 4 45.30 37.00 0.00 1.40 136.1
2 5 52.10 37.50 0.00 4.55 140.7
2 6 48.50 32.60 0.00 2.31 143.0
2 7 48.90 37.40 0.05 3.03 146.0
2 8 44.60 33.70 0.00 0.91 146.9
2 9 45.90 29.60 0.00 1.18 148.1
2 10 45.60 33.60 0.00 1.26 149.4
2 11 39.40 28.40 0.10 0.00 149.4
2 12 28.60 25.20 0.00 0.00 149.4
2 13 31.90 24.10 0.52 0.00 149.4
2 14 32.10 27.40 0.55 0.00 149.4
2 15 46.90 31.90 0.56 1.64 151.0
2 16 48.80 33.20 0.05 2.48 153.5
2 17 48.90 31.20 0.02 2.36 155.9
2 18 40.40 34.90 0.34 0.00 155.9
2 19 49.20 37.50 0.07 3.19 159.1
2 20 50.80 35.20 0.01 3.56 162.6
2 21 53.40 42.70 0.02 7.05 169.7
2 22 51.60 40.80 0.24 5.21 174.9
2 23 49.90 35.50 0.04 3.21 178.1
2 24 47.20 31.60 0.02 1.74 179.8
2 25 50.80 36.20 0.19 3.71 183.5
2 26 48.90 39.80 0.20 3.54 187.1
2 27 49.60 35.50 0.01 3.07 190.2
2 28 54.30 40.80 0.00 6.56 196.7
3 1 59.10 36.60 0.00 7.69 204.4
3 2 53.50 35.90 0.00 4.90 209.3
3 3 60.00 32.00 0.00 7.24 216.6 Px
3 4 54.90 39.10 0.00 6.28 222.8 Px Pn
3 5 48.40 40.20 0.15 3.41 226.2
3 6 50.10 40.30 0.10 4.28 230.5
3 7 50.70 35.60 0.12 3.58 234.1
3 8 51.50 31.40 0.01 3.43 237.5
3 9 52.20 36.80 0.05 4.46 242.0
3 10 54.20 37.20 0.01 5.48 247.5
3 11 60.50 33.40 0.01 7.71 255.2
3 12 60.10 32.30 0.00 7.34 262.5
3 13 60.90 31.60 0.00 7.59 270.1
3 14 49.30 39.30 0.13 3.60 273.7
3 15 44.30 28.00 0.00 0.64 274.3
3 16 54.90 27.00 0.01 4.42 278.8
3 17 59.40 30.30 0.00 6.72 285.5
3 18 50.50 36.10 0.13 3.56 289.0
3 19 53.50 39.30 0.11 5.65 294.7
3 20 55.50 41.60 0.15 7.55 302.2
3 21 48.60 39.50 0.01 3.31 305.6
3 22 51.90 38.40 0.12 4.64 310.2
3 23 56.30 30.50 0.00 5.38 315.6
3 24 49.80 40.90 0.08 4.35 319.9
3 25 54.00 38.50 0.00 5.68 325.6
3 26 56.40 31.20 0.00 5.51 331.1
3 27 63.40 34.60 0.00 9.31 340.4
3 28 49.90 37.90 0.28 3.59 344.0
3 29 52.30 33.10 0.01 3.95 348.0
3 30 51.90 28.40 0.01 3.32 351.3
3 31 69.20 30.90 0.00 11.31 362.6
4 1 66.40 36.40 0.00 11.18 373.8
4 2 63.20 35.00 0.00 9.30 383.1
4 3 68.60 39.50 0.00 13.19 396.3
4 4 55.90 37.80 0.00 6.43 402.7
4 5 60.30 32.60 0.00 7.48 410.2
4 6 63.50 32.60 0.00 8.96 419.2
4 7 52.70 39.10 0.00 5.21 424.4
4 8 54.60 37.30 0.02 5.69 430.1
4 9 58.00 30.90 0.00 6.18 436.2
4 10 51.10 34.50 0.08 3.60 439.8
4 11 58.20 29.50 0.00 6.08 445.9
4 12 62.60 35.00 0.00 9.01 454.9
4 13 63.10 38.80 0.00 10.23 465.2
4 14 69.60 36.70 0.00 12.82 478.0
4 15 75.00 36.10 0.00 15.30 493.3
4 16 76.50 39.10 0.00 16.98 510.3
4 17 83.40 38.60 0.00 20.24 530.5
4 18 82.80 42.50 0.00 21.65 552.2
4 19 70.30 39.00 0.00 13.87 566.0
4 20 73.70 42.60 0.00 17.15 583.2
4 21 75.40 43.40 0.00 18.40 601.6
4 22 65.80 39.20 0.00 11.70 613.3
4 23 59.50 38.90 0.00 8.49 621.8
4 24 53.00 45.80 0.21 8.40 630.2
4 25 57.60 42.90 0.02 9.25 639.4
4 26 58.40 43.30 0.07 9.85 649.3
4 27 64.80 37.80 0.01 10.77 660.0
4 28 71.00 41.50 0.00 15.25 675.3
4 29 77.80 46.20 0.00 21.00 696.3
4 30 65.80 45.70 0.07 14.75 711.0
5 1 61.80 47.30 0.00 13.55 724.6
5 2 64.90 46.50 0.01 14.70 739.3
5 3 62.00 43.70 0.02 11.85 751.1
5 4 68.30 47.50 0.00 16.90 768.0
5 5 80.20 42.20 0.00 20.20 788.2
5 6 64.00 46.30 0.00 14.15 802.4
5 7 59.10 41.80 0.02 9.45 811.8
5 8 59.60 35.00 0.00 7.59 819.4
5 9 61.90 48.90 0.00 14.40 833.8
5 10 69.00 44.10 0.00 15.55 849.4
5 11 74.70 43.70 0.00 18.20 867.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 12 79.10 47.40 0.00 22.25 889.8
5 13 77.60 47.90 0.00 21.75 911.6
5 14 79.10 52.30 0.00 24.70 936.3
5 15 79.50 45.60 0.00 21.55 957.8 Peak female adult emergence
5 16 81.90 44.10 0.00 22.00 979.8
5 17 65.50 45.50 0.00 14.50 994.3
5 18 63.10 44.60 0.02 12.85 1007.2 Peak egg laying
5 19 57.20 37.30 0.04 6.94 1014.1
5 20 62.00 33.40 0.00 8.41 1022.5
5 21 65.30 38.40 0.00 11.20 1033.7
5 22 71.80 39.60 0.00 14.82 1048.5
5 23 65.20 49.90 0.00 16.55 1065.1
5 24 61.00 49.90 0.17 14.45 1079.5
5 25 61.80 51.80 0.12 15.80 1095.3
5 26 70.60 47.20 0.00 17.90 1113.2
5 27 62.20 49.20 0.09 14.70 1127.9
5 28 67.70 44.90 0.00 15.30 1143.2
5 29 82.50 45.80 0.00 23.15 1166.4
5 30 84.10 52.30 0.00 27.20 1193.6
5 31 88.00 52.90 0.00 29.45 1223.0
6 1 95.50 58.30 0.00 35.90 1258.9
6 2 90.40 62.80 0.00 35.60 1294.5 Peak egg hatch
6 3 82.60 55.60 0.00 28.10 1322.6
6 4 78.40 48.30 0.00 22.35 1345.0
6 5 65.90 45.40 0.00 14.65 1359.6
6 6 63.20 40.90 0.02 11.05 1370.7
6 7 64.40 43.90 0.00 13.15 1383.9
6 8 64.40 47.50 0.00 14.95 1398.8
6 9 65.80 41.60 0.00 12.70 1411.5
6 10 65.30 40.50 0.00 11.93 1423.4
6 11 62.30 50.50 0.16 15.40 1438.8
6 12 75.70 47.90 0.21 20.80 1459.6
6 13 66.10 59.50 0.94 21.80 1481.4
6 14 71.70 56.30 0.08 23.00 1504.4
6 15 69.40 48.40 0.12 17.90 1522.3
6 16 78.20 45.00 0.01 20.60 1542.9
6 17 82.70 52.00 0.00 26.35 1569.3
6 18 76.60 54.60 0.00 24.60 1593.9
6 19 83.10 50.90 0.00 26.00 1619.9
6 20 91.60 58.20 0.00 33.90 1653.8
6 21 95.50 62.10 0.00 37.80 1691.6
6 22 87.40 59.50 0.00 32.45 1724.0
6 23 83.80 55.60 0.00 28.70 1752.7
6 24 89.40 53.20 0.00 30.30 1783.0
6 25 94.30 60.30 0.00 36.30 1819.3
6 26 105.30 63.80 0.00 43.55 1862.9
6 27 109.30 71.30 0.00 49.30 1912.2
6 28 112.80 73.30 0.00 52.05 1964.2
6 29 92.10 62.10 0.00 36.10 2000.3
6 30 73.60 61.40 0.00 26.50 2026.8
7 1 75.60 63.00 0.00 28.30 2055.1
7 2 85.50 57.80 0.00 30.65 2085.8 Peak in density large larvae
7 3 88.70 56.60 0.00 31.65 2117.4
7 4 87.20 54.00 0.00 29.60 2147.0
7 5 85.80 52.90 1.24 28.35 2175.4
7 6 90.60 53.40 0.00 31.00 2206.4
7 7 76.00 58.00 0.00 26.00 2232.4
7 8 79.50 54.40 0.00 25.95 2258.3
7 9 87.70 51.40 0.00 28.55 2286.9
7 10 86.30 57.60 0.00 30.95 2317.8
7 11 85.30 53.90 0.00 28.60 2346.4
7 12 83.60 56.20 0.00 28.90 2375.3
7 13 85.40 54.10 0.00 28.75 2404.1
7 14 82.00 55.40 0.00 27.70 2431.8
7 15 78.70 51.90 0.00 24.30 2456.1
7 16 76.80 50.50 0.00 22.65 2478.7
7 17 80.00 54.70 0.00 26.35 2505.1
7 18 85.90 54.70 0.00 29.30 2534.4
7 19 85.70 55.50 0.00 29.60 2564.0
7 20 77.20 55.20 0.00 25.20 2589.2
7 21 73.40 50.10 0.00 20.75 2609.9
7 22 79.70 49.30 0.00 23.50 2633.4
7 23 84.20 51.50 0.00 26.85 2660.3
7 24 88.80 60.70 0.00 33.75 2694.0
7 25 88.20 61.60 0.00 33.90 2727.9
7 26 88.00 57.80 0.00 31.90 2759.8
7 27 86.40 59.70 0.00 32.05 2791.9
7 28 93.90 56.90 0.00 34.40 2826.3
7 29 96.00 62.10 0.00 38.05 2864.3
7 30 100.70 65.30 0.00 42.00 2906.3
7 31 83.80 68.80 0.00 35.30 2941.6
8 1 88.60 59.30 0.00 32.95 2974.6
8 2 94.00 58.00 0.00 35.00 3009.6
8 3 89.60 61.70 0.00 34.65 3044.2
8 4 95.20 57.60 0.00 35.40 3079.6
8 5 82.50 64.20 0.00 32.35 3112.0
8 6 80.10 62.40 0.01 30.25 3142.2
8 7 81.30 57.70 0.00 28.50 3170.7
8 8 75.80 52.10 0.00 22.95 3193.7
8 9 82.90 55.70 0.00 28.30 3222.0
8 10 92.00 66.60 0.00 38.30 3260.3
8 11 101.70 70.10 0.00 44.90 3305.2
8 12 103.40 63.10 0.00 42.25 3347.4
8 13 97.10 67.20 0.00 41.15 3388.6
8 14 93.20 64.50 0.00 37.85 3426.4
8 15 95.70 62.50 0.00 38.10 3464.5
8 16 85.20 56.10 0.00 29.65 3494.2
8 17 71.00 55.90 0.00 22.45 3516.6
8 18 82.70 51.50 0.00 26.10 3542.7
8 19 81.80 53.10 0.00 26.45 3569.2
8 20 73.10 56.30 0.00 23.70 3592.9
8 21 68.90 55.70 0.00 21.30 3614.2
8 22 69.40 53.20 0.00 20.30 3634.5
8 23 73.50 41.40 0.00 16.45 3650.9
8 24 84.50 50.00 0.00 26.25 3677.2
8 25 80.10 49.60 0.00 23.85 3701.0
8 26 74.60 58.00 0.00 25.30 3726.3
8 27 70.90 57.00 0.01 22.95 3749.3
8 28 87.20 55.50 0.00 30.35 3779.6
8 29 86.80 57.60 0.00 31.20 3810.8
8 30 69.80 52.70 0.00 20.25 3831.1
8 31 66.60 43.70 0.00 14.15 3845.2
9 1 77.60 47.10 0.01 21.35 3866.6
9 2 84.60 50.30 0.00 26.45 3893.0
9 3 83.60 46.50 0.00 24.05 3917.1
9 4 86.30 47.80 0.00 26.05 3943.1
9 5 85.40 56.10 0.00 29.75 3972.9
9 6 84.80 55.70 0.00 29.25 4002.1
9 7 86.90 49.90 0.00 27.40 4029.5
9 8 87.30 55.60 0.00 30.45 4060.0
9 9 84.30 54.60 0.00 28.45 4088.4
9 10 70.10 57.10 0.00 22.60 4111.0
9 11 79.70 50.10 0.00 23.90 4134.9
9 12 73.70 57.60 0.00 24.65 4159.6
9 13 74.70 45.40 0.00 19.05 4178.6
9 14 83.60 46.80 0.36 24.20 4202.8
9 15 69.30 51.50 0.00 19.40 4222.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 FOGO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-11-21 | 868 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-15-21 | 958 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-18-21 | 1007 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-2-21 | 1295 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-2-21 | 2086 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?24712)
