Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 36.10 31.60 0.47 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 33.80 29.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 34.80 27.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.50 22.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 37.40 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 35.10 13.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 29.40 18.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 33.80 28.80 0.85 0.00 0.0 1 9 37.70 32.80 0.55 0.00 0.0 1 10 38.30 31.60 0.28 0.00 0.0 1 11 34.20 28.40 0.32 0.00 0.0 1 12 40.50 13.20 0.09 0.00 0.0 1 13 27.60 7.10 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 14 35.50 5.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 34.20 8.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 35.10 17.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 17 34.70 24.40 0.93 0.00 0.0 1 18 51.90 36.20 1.64 4.21 4.2 1 19 49.30 41.60 0.05 4.45 8.7 1 20 44.00 38.90 0.23 1.05 9.7 1 21 46.80 39.20 0.50 2.38 12.1 1 22 50.70 37.60 0.13 3.91 16.0 1 23 51.50 31.80 0.00 3.47 19.5 1 24 40.80 27.60 0.00 0.00 19.5 1 25 44.90 34.30 0.02 1.05 20.5 1 26 47.50 34.10 0.02 2.03 22.5 1 27 49.70 29.90 0.00 2.57 25.1 1 28 46.40 30.50 0.00 1.39 26.5 1 29 42.50 30.10 0.00 0.22 26.7 1 30 48.10 38.70 0.00 2.90 29.6 1 31 49.40 33.00 0.00 2.71 32.3 2 1 39.00 31.60 0.00 0.00 32.3 2 2 40.20 32.30 0.00 0.00 32.3 2 3 35.50 31.60 0.44 0.00 32.3 2 4 53.00 36.10 0.55 4.71 37.0 2 5 44.10 32.70 1.66 0.71 37.8 2 6 43.70 33.90 0.55 0.62 38.4 2 7 39.50 34.70 0.03 0.00 38.4 2 8 40.40 37.30 1.19 0.00 38.4 2 9 60.30 40.20 1.52 9.32 47.7 2 10 50.00 35.80 0.32 3.29 51.0 2 11 52.30 31.30 0.02 3.75 54.7 2 12 54.30 31.10 0.00 4.58 59.3 2 13 58.50 29.70 0.00 6.24 65.6 2 14 51.30 30.10 0.15 3.23 68.8 2 15 56.30 42.80 1.44 8.55 77.3 2 16 54.40 44.00 1.34 8.20 85.5 2 17 57.50 43.60 0.00 9.55 95.1 2 18 52.10 42.10 0.09 6.10 101.2 2 19 48.50 39.90 0.78 3.37 104.5 2 20 51.60 41.90 0.78 5.75 110.3 2 21 50.70 35.80 0.28 3.61 113.9 2 22 49.20 29.90 0.10 2.38 116.3 2 23 44.10 28.00 0.02 0.59 116.9 2 24 41.20 31.60 0.07 0.01 116.9 2 25 48.90 28.40 0.00 2.17 119.1 2 26 43.70 35.50 0.21 0.68 119.7 2 27 45.40 33.80 0.06 1.20 120.9 2 28 50.70 31.50 0.00 3.11 124.0 3 1 51.60 39.90 0.05 4.89 128.9 3 2 49.60 40.00 0.04 3.94 132.9 3 3 50.30 39.50 0.34 4.14 137.0 3 4 45.10 32.80 0.26 1.04 138.1 3 5 44.10 34.00 0.26 0.75 138.8 3 6 45.10 32.50 0.43 1.03 139.8 3 7 48.60 39.10 0.61 3.22 143.1 3 8 45.80 41.40 0.18 2.60 145.7 3 9 55.50 43.20 0.64 8.35 154.0 3 10 61.10 44.90 0.01 12.00 166.0 3 11 56.20 40.50 0.50 7.39 173.4 3 12 62.90 44.20 0.00 12.55 186.0 3 13 55.00 44.20 0.36 8.60 194.6 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 14 58.20 44.20 0.67 10.20 204.8 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 15 56.10 44.60 0.96 9.35 214.1 3 16 55.50 35.00 0.00 5.67 219.8 3 17 46.00 34.50 0.51 1.47 221.2 3 18 53.50 36.60 0.36 5.03 226.3 3 19 56.60 32.00 0.00 5.71 232.0 3 20 55.00 36.00 0.14 5.62 237.6 3 21 60.10 44.60 0.36 11.35 249.0 3 22 54.80 40.60 0.04 6.73 255.7 3 23 55.20 39.90 0.34 6.68 262.4 3 24 55.30 45.00 0.31 9.15 271.5 3 25 55.20 37.40 0.03 6.00 277.5 3 26 50.70 43.30 0.44 6.00 283.5 3 27 56.60 42.10 0.06 8.35 291.9 3 28 59.00 45.50 0.08 11.25 303.1 3 29 61.50 45.40 0.31 12.45 315.6 3 30 56.10 39.50 0.01 6.99 322.6 3 31 59.10 33.20 0.00 7.03 329.6 4 1 62.10 46.50 0.01 13.30 342.9 4 2 55.50 34.60 0.00 5.60 348.5 4 3 57.10 34.70 0.00 6.36 354.8 4 4 58.70 38.70 0.00 8.03 362.9 Hx Hn 4 5 54.50 44.90 0.11 8.70 371.6 4 6 60.40 45.20 0.26 11.80 383.4 4 7 54.40 42.80 0.46 7.60 391.0 4 8 53.90 38.90 0.02 5.74 396.7 4 9 56.00 36.90 0.26 6.27 403.0 4 10 56.10 38.60 0.05 6.73 409.7 4 11 58.80 35.50 0.30 7.31 417.0 4 12 60.70 44.50 0.69 11.60 428.6 4 13 53.90 42.10 0.05 7.00 435.6 4 14 55.70 39.30 0.05 6.73 442.4 4 15 59.10 33.20 0.00 7.03 449.4 4 16 63.50 39.50 0.01 10.66 460.1 4 17 58.10 46.20 0.18 11.15 471.2 4 18 65.00 46.90 0.16 14.95 486.2 4 19 53.60 41.70 0.54 6.65 492.8 4 20 60.90 42.20 0.14 10.55 503.4 4 21 68.60 34.40 0.01 11.76 515.1 4 22 61.10 44.90 0.11 12.00 527.1 4 23 56.30 44.10 0.11 9.20 536.3 4 24 56.10 44.80 0.57 9.45 545.8 4 25 52.70 43.60 0.19 7.15 552.9
DD accumulation on 4-25-17: 553QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 26 days behind 2016 ok
 36 days behind 2015 ok
 same day 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for FOGO data
  4 26  54.50 42.50  0.14   7.50    560.4  0.139_0.84%_precip.    
  4 27  50.40 35.40  0.20   3.41    563.8  0.20_0.01%_precip.    
  4 28  57.60 33.40  0.00   6.37    570.2  0.00_1.19%_precip.    
  4 29  58.40 30.00  0.04   6.24    576.4  0.037_1.24%_precip.    
  4 30  52.60 38.20  0.01   4.93    581.4  0.014_0.23%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg FOGO 2006-2015
  5  1  62.90 38.70  0.01  10.10    591.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5  2  65.80 41.50  0.03  12.65    604.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5  3  65.00 42.60  0.12  12.80    616.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  4  63.60 42.00  0.10  11.80    628.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5  5  64.70 42.60  0.17  12.65    641.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5  6  64.60 43.10  0.03  12.85    654.2  *hist_fcst*    
  5  7  64.20 43.20  0.08  12.70    666.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5  8  66.70 42.70  0.02  13.70    680.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5  9  66.00 41.40  0.07  12.70    693.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 10  67.50 41.50  0.03  13.50    706.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 11  67.70 44.20  0.01  14.95    721.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 12  65.70 43.00  0.05  13.35    735.1  *hist_fcst*    
  5 13  65.20 44.00  0.04  13.60    748.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 14  69.10 45.10  0.05  16.10    764.8  *hist_fcst*    
  5 15  75.20 46.00  0.01  19.60    784.4  *hist_fcst*    
  5 16  75.00 47.60  0.05  20.30    804.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 17  73.60 47.60  0.02  19.60    824.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 18  73.80 47.40  0.03  19.60    843.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 19  71.80 47.00  0.05  18.40    862.3  *hist_fcst*   peak pheromone trap catch
  5 20  68.00 46.40  0.07  16.20    878.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 21  67.00 47.30  0.10  16.15    894.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 22  65.10 46.50  0.16  14.80    909.5  *hist_fcst*    
  5 23  63.10 46.50  0.18  13.80    923.3  *hist_fcst*    
  5 24  63.40 45.80  0.14  13.60    936.9  *hist_fcst*    
  5 25  66.90 46.80  0.10  15.85    952.7  *hist_fcst*   peak female adult emergence
  5 26  66.40 47.40  0.10  15.90    968.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 27  65.70 48.30  0.08  16.00    984.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 28  66.00 47.40  0.08  15.70   1000.3  *hist_fcst*   peak egg laying
  5 29  66.60 47.90  0.04  16.25   1016.6  *hist_fcst*    
  5 30  70.20 48.10  0.02  18.15   1034.7  *hist_fcst*    
  5 31  74.50 49.10  0.03  20.80   1055.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  1  73.90 51.00  0.04  21.45   1077.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  2  69.60 50.80  0.12  19.20   1096.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  3  70.30 49.40  0.09  18.85   1115.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  4  71.70 49.90  0.10  19.80   1134.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6  5  72.50 50.90  0.10  20.70   1155.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6  6  71.70 49.50  0.02  19.60   1175.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6  7  71.50 50.20  0.12  19.85   1195.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6  8  69.80 50.60  0.03  19.20   1214.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6  9  71.50 49.00  0.02  19.25   1233.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 10  69.20 48.40  0.05  17.80   1251.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 11  68.10 48.90  0.02  17.50   1268.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 12  71.00 49.30  0.01  19.15   1287.9  *hist_fcst*   peak egg hatch
  6 13  70.80 49.90  0.05  19.35   1307.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 14  68.60 49.30  0.03  17.95   1325.2  *hist_fcst*    
  6 15  68.40 49.00  0.00  17.70   1342.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 16  71.80 48.20  0.04  19.00   1361.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 17  71.20 48.80  0.01  19.00   1380.9  *hist_fcst*    
  6 18  69.60 50.00  0.00  18.80   1399.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 19  69.70 49.60  0.05  18.65   1418.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 20  71.80 50.30  0.04  20.05   1438.4  *hist_fcst*    
  6 21  72.90 49.80  0.01  20.35   1458.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 22  75.30 50.20  0.00  21.75   1480.5  *hist_fcst*    
  6 23  73.10 49.90  0.02  20.50   1501.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 24  74.50 51.60  0.06  22.05   1523.0  *hist_fcst*    
  6 25  75.80 51.50  0.02  22.65   1545.7  *hist_fcst*    
  6 26  76.30 54.00  0.02  24.15   1569.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 27  78.60 53.30  0.04  24.95   1594.8  *hist_fcst*    
  6 28  80.90 53.80  0.04  26.35   1621.1  *hist_fcst*    
  6 29  79.00 55.30  0.04  26.15   1647.3  *hist_fcst*    
  6 30  77.60 54.20  0.01  24.90   1672.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  80.70 53.40  0.01  26.05   1698.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  82.90 54.80  0.01  27.85   1726.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  83.50 54.60  0.02  28.05   1754.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  80.90 52.80  0.00  25.85   1780.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  80.70 53.10  0.00  25.90   1805.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  79.40 53.90  0.00  25.65   1831.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  80.30 53.10  0.00  25.70   1857.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  82.20 54.30  0.00  27.25   1884.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  85.10 55.30  0.00  29.20   1913.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  85.30 55.60  0.00  29.45   1943.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  82.30 54.90  0.00  27.60   1970.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  81.50 54.80  0.01  27.15   1997.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  78.60 55.20  0.03  25.90   2023.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  78.60 54.60  0.01  25.60   2049.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  83.20 55.40  0.00  28.30   2077.7  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 16  83.60 55.40  0.02  28.50   2106.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  82.70 54.50  0.02  27.60   2133.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  78.60 53.70  0.06  25.15   2158.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  78.50 53.40  0.01  24.95   2183.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  81.20 54.20  0.01  26.70   2210.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  80.00 54.50  0.01  26.25   2236.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  82.30 54.80  0.00  27.55   2264.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  78.10 55.50  0.01  25.80   2290.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  80.50 54.40  0.03  26.45   2316.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  84.30 54.40  0.00  28.35   2345.0  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  82.80 54.70  0.02  27.75   2372.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  83.00 54.20  0.00  27.60   2400.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  82.50 54.30  0.00  27.40   2427.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  83.90 55.30  0.00  28.60   2456.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  82.30 55.90  0.00  28.10   2484.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  82.90 54.50  0.00  27.70   2512.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  83.40 53.70  0.00  27.55   2539.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  83.00 55.80  0.00  28.40   2568.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  81.00 54.50  0.00  26.75   2594.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  83.10 54.10  0.00  27.60   2622.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.20 54.40  0.00  29.30   2651.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  84.40 55.30  0.00  28.85   2680.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  81.90 55.40  0.00  27.65   2708.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.30 55.10  0.00  26.70   2734.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  77.20 55.00  0.00  25.10   2760.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  77.70 53.80  0.00  24.75   2784.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  79.80 54.60  0.00  26.20   2811.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  81.90 55.30  0.06  27.60   2838.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  81.00 55.00  0.03  27.00   2865.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  82.70 55.50  0.01  28.10   2893.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  83.80 56.90  0.01  29.35   2923.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.30 56.80  0.00  29.05   2952.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.80 56.00  0.00  29.90   2982.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  85.90 56.10  0.00  30.00   3012.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  83.20 56.10  0.02  28.65   3040.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  82.40 55.60  0.05  28.00   3068.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.10 53.20  0.03  25.65   3094.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  78.30 53.10  0.00  24.70   3119.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  78.70 52.40  0.00  24.55   3143.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  79.80 52.30  0.00  25.05   3168.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  80.90 53.20  0.04  26.05   3194.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  81.30 52.20  0.01  25.75   3220.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  80.90 52.40  0.02  25.65   3246.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  82.80 53.90  0.01  27.35   3273.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  80.50 54.20  0.02  26.35   3299.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  75.70 54.10  0.07  23.90   3323.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.20 53.00  0.05  23.10   3346.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  75.10 50.30  0.02  21.70   3368.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  77.90 50.70  0.01  23.30   3391.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.20 50.50  0.01  24.35   3416.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  79.90 51.10  0.01  24.50   3440.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  78.20 51.70  0.01  23.95   3464.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  78.10 51.90  0.09  24.00   3488.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  78.70 51.60  0.08  24.15   3512.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.80 51.30  0.05  25.05   3537.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.60 51.80  0.00  24.70   3562.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  78.80 51.90  0.00  24.35   3586.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  82.80 51.10  0.00  25.95   3612.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.60 51.00  0.00  27.80   3640.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  82.50 51.90  0.00  26.20   3666.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  76.00 51.70  0.00  22.85   3689.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  75.60 51.00  0.01  22.30   3711.9  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR
DD accumulation on 3-8-17: 312 QA 99% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 19 days behind 2016 ok
 31 days behind 2015 ok
 2 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DD accumulation on 4-14-17: 909QA 82% ok - Caution - 18% of data estimated  - check weather data/Consider using a different Station!DD accumulation on 4-25-17: 553 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 26 days behind 2016 ok
 36 days behind 2015 ok
 same day 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-19-17 862peak pheromone trap catch
 5-25-17 953peak female adult emergence
 5-28-17 1000peak egg laying
 6-12-17 1288peak egg hatch
 7-15-17 2078peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)