Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 36.10 31.60 0.47 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 33.80 29.30 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 34.80 27.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 35.50 22.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 37.40 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 35.10 13.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 29.40 18.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 33.80 28.80 0.85 0.00 0.0 1 9 37.70 32.80 0.55 0.00 0.0 1 10 38.30 31.60 0.28 0.00 0.0 1 11 34.20 28.40 0.32 0.00 0.0 1 12 40.50 13.20 0.09 0.00 0.0 1 13 27.60 7.10 0.01 0.00 0.0 1 14 35.50 5.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 15 34.20 8.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 16 35.10 17.90 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 17 34.70 24.40 0.93 0.00 0.0 1 18 51.90 36.20 1.64 4.21 4.2 1 19 49.30 41.60 0.05 4.45 8.7 1 20 44.00 38.90 0.23 1.05 9.7 1 21 46.80 39.20 0.50 2.38 12.1 1 22 50.70 37.60 0.13 3.91 16.0 1 23 51.50 31.80 0.00 3.47 19.5 1 24 40.80 27.60 0.00 0.00 19.5 1 25 44.90 34.30 0.02 1.05 20.5 1 26 47.50 34.10 0.02 2.03 22.5 1 27 49.70 29.90 0.00 2.57 25.1 1 28 46.40 30.50 0.00 1.39 26.5 1 29 42.50 30.10 0.00 0.22 26.7 1 30 48.10 38.70 0.00 2.90 29.6 1 31 49.40 33.00 0.00 2.71 32.3 2 1 39.00 31.60 0.00 0.00 32.3 2 2 40.20 32.30 0.00 0.00 32.3 2 3 35.50 31.60 0.44 0.00 32.3 2 4 53.00 36.10 0.55 4.71 37.0 2 5 44.10 32.70 1.66 0.71 37.8 2 6 43.70 33.90 0.55 0.62 38.4 2 7 39.50 34.70 0.03 0.00 38.4 2 8 40.40 37.30 1.19 0.00 38.4 2 9 60.30 40.20 1.52 9.32 47.7 2 10 50.00 35.80 0.32 3.29 51.0 2 11 52.30 31.30 0.02 3.75 54.7 2 12 54.30 31.10 0.00 4.58 59.3 2 13 58.50 29.70 0.00 6.24 65.6 2 14 51.30 30.10 0.15 3.23 68.8 2 15 56.30 42.80 1.44 8.55 77.3 2 16 54.40 44.00 1.34 8.20 85.5 2 17 57.50 43.60 0.00 9.55 95.1 2 18 52.10 42.10 0.09 6.10 101.2 2 19 48.50 39.90 0.78 3.37 104.5 2 20 51.60 41.90 0.78 5.75 110.3 2 21 50.70 35.80 0.28 3.61 113.9 2 22 49.20 29.90 0.10 2.38 116.3 2 23 44.10 28.00 0.02 0.59 116.9 2 24 41.20 31.60 0.07 0.01 116.9 2 25 48.90 28.40 0.00 2.17 119.1 2 26 43.70 35.50 0.21 0.68 119.7 2 27 45.40 33.80 0.06 1.20 120.9 2 28 50.70 31.50 0.00 3.11 124.0 3 1 51.60 39.90 0.05 4.89 128.9 3 2 49.60 40.00 0.04 3.94 132.9 3 3 50.30 39.50 0.34 4.14 137.0 3 4 45.10 32.80 0.26 1.04 138.1 3 5 44.10 34.00 0.26 0.75 138.8 3 6 45.10 32.50 0.43 1.03 139.8 3 7 48.60 39.10 0.61 3.22 143.1 3 8 45.80 41.40 0.18 2.60 145.7 3 9 55.50 43.20 0.64 8.35 154.0 3 10 61.10 44.90 0.01 12.00 166.0 3 11 56.20 40.50 0.50 7.39 173.4 3 12 62.90 44.20 0.00 12.55 186.0 3 13 55.00 44.20 0.36 8.60 194.6 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 14 58.20 44.20 0.67 10.20 204.8 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 15 56.10 44.60 0.96 9.35 214.1 3 16 55.50 35.00 0.00 5.67 219.8 3 17 46.00 34.50 0.51 1.47 221.2 3 18 53.50 36.60 0.36 5.03 226.3 3 19 56.60 32.00 0.00 5.71 232.0 3 20 55.00 36.00 0.14 5.62 237.6 3 21 60.10 44.60 0.36 11.35 249.0 3 22 54.80 40.60 0.04 6.73 255.7 3 23 55.20 39.90 0.34 6.68 262.4 3 24 55.30 45.00 0.31 9.15 271.5 3 25 55.20 37.40 0.03 6.00 277.5 3 26 50.70 43.30 0.44 6.00 283.5 3 27 56.60 42.10 0.06 8.35 291.9 3 28 59.00 45.50 0.08 11.25 303.1 3 29 61.50 45.40 0.31 12.45 315.6 3 30 56.10 39.50 0.01 6.99 322.6 3 31 59.10 33.20 0.00 7.03 329.6 4 1 62.10 46.50 0.01 13.30 342.9 4 2 55.50 34.60 0.00 5.60 348.5 4 3 57.10 34.70 0.00 6.36 354.8 4 4 58.70 38.70 0.00 8.03 362.9 Hx Hn 4 5 54.50 44.90 0.11 8.70 371.6 4 6 60.40 45.20 0.26 11.80 383.4 4 7 54.40 42.80 0.46 7.60 391.0 4 8 53.90 38.90 0.02 5.74 396.7 4 9 56.00 36.90 0.26 6.27 403.0 4 10 56.10 38.60 0.05 6.73 409.7 4 11 58.80 35.50 0.30 7.31 417.0 4 12 60.70 44.50 0.69 11.60 428.6 4 13 53.90 42.10 0.05 7.00 435.6 4 14 55.70 39.30 0.05 6.73 442.4 4 15 59.10 33.20 0.00 7.03 449.4 4 16 63.50 39.50 0.01 10.66 460.1 4 17 58.10 46.20 0.18 11.15 471.2 4 18 65.00 46.90 0.16 14.95 486.2 4 19 53.60 41.70 0.54 6.65 492.8 4 20 60.90 42.20 0.14 10.55 503.4 4 21 68.60 34.40 0.01 11.76 515.1 4 22 61.10 44.90 0.11 12.00 527.1 4 23 56.30 44.10 0.11 9.20 536.3 4 24 56.10 44.80 0.57 9.45 545.8 4 25 52.70 43.60 0.19 7.15 552.9 4 26 59.20 39.90 0.05 8.66 561.6 4 27 59.10 37.10 0.03 7.81 569.4 4 28 61.20 35.40 0.00 8.43 577.8 4 29 62.10 37.00 0.02 9.24 587.1 4 30 58.40 43.00 0.01 9.70 596.8 5 1 52.80 35.70 0.01 4.55 601.3 5 2 63.70 49.90 0.03 15.80 617.1 5 3 82.90 57.20 0.00 29.05 646.2 5 4 83.60 56.40 0.08 29.00 675.2 5 5 59.70 41.40 0.22 9.55 684.7 5 6 60.40 39.50 0.01 9.12 693.8 5 7 66.20 37.80 0.00 11.46 705.3 5 8 71.20 40.40 0.00 14.84 720.1 5 9 76.20 44.70 0.00 19.45 739.6 5 10 72.70 47.50 0.00 19.10 758.7 5 11 58.10 43.50 0.44 9.80 768.5 5 12 56.10 42.50 0.23 8.30 776.8 5 13 55.50 43.50 0.27 8.50 785.3 5 14 61.60 44.90 0.08 12.25 797.5 5 15 58.20 43.40 0.07 9.80 807.3 5 16 56.00 46.70 0.28 10.35 817.7 5 17 59.60 45.80 0.01 11.70 829.4 5 18 69.30 40.00 0.00 13.73 843.1 5 19 75.80 49.50 0.00 21.65 864.7 peak pheromone trap catch 5 20 72.50 48.50 0.00 19.50 884.2 5 21 82.60 51.60 0.00 26.10 910.3 5 22 91.10 58.80 0.00 33.95 944.3 5 23 83.90 51.30 0.00 26.60 970.9 peak female adult emergence 5 24 64.80 46.20 0.00 14.50 985.4 5 25 74.60 43.20 0.00 17.90 1003.3 peak egg laying 5 26 83.00 50.10 0.00 25.55 1028.8 5 27 88.40 52.00 0.00 29.20 1058.0 5 28 83.60 53.90 0.00 27.75 1085.8 5 29 73.90 53.20 0.00 22.55 1108.3 5 30 62.00 53.50 0.00 16.75 1125.1 5 31 74.00 53.30 0.00 22.65 1147.7 6 1 70.40 56.60 0.03 22.50 1170.2 6 2 74.00 53.80 0.00 22.90 1193.1 6 3 65.40 53.70 0.00 18.55 1211.7 6 4 68.20 50.20 0.00 18.20 1229.9 6 5 78.00 43.00 0.00 19.50 1249.4 6 6 84.60 52.90 0.00 27.75 1277.1 peak egg hatch 6 7 77.40 50.70 0.01 23.05 1300.2 6 8 63.70 52.50 0.17 17.10 1317.3 6 9 62.90 49.80 0.15 15.35 1332.6 6 10 60.20 49.40 0.66 13.80 1346.4 6 11 69.60 48.90 0.01 18.25 1364.7 6 12 61.00 48.90 0.00 13.95 1378.6 6 13 65.60 49.30 0.05 16.45 1395.1 6 14 64.90 46.00 0.00 14.45 1409.5 6 15 62.00 53.60 0.31 16.80 1426.3 6 16 65.60 56.40 0.00 20.00 1446.3 6 17 68.90 53.80 0.01 20.35 1466.7 6 18 79.10 58.60 0.00 27.85 1494.5 6 19 88.50 62.20 0.00 34.35 1528.9 6 20 76.70 52.50 0.00 23.60 1552.5 6 21 73.50 45.60 0.00 18.55 1571.0 6 22 82.10 54.40 0.00 27.25 1598.3 6 23 88.80 61.00 0.00 33.90 1632.2 6 24 93.60 60.40 0.00 36.00 1668.2 6 25 99.70 61.30 0.00 39.50 1707.7 6 26 78.50 56.80 0.00 26.65 1734.3 6 27 76.10 55.40 0.00 24.75 1759.1 6 28 74.60 49.80 0.00 21.20 1780.3 6 29 82.00 50.50 0.00 25.25 1805.5 6 30 87.40 56.60 0.00 31.00 1836.5 7 1 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1862.6 7 2 83.40 50.90 0.00 26.15 1888.8 7 3 76.70 55.20 0.00 24.95 1913.7 7 4 84.60 50.70 0.00 26.65 1940.4 7 5 91.00 55.10 0.00 32.05 1972.4 7 6 89.60 52.40 0.00 30.00 2002.4 7 7 71.30 55.00 0.00 22.15 2024.6 7 8 86.10 49.00 0.00 26.55 2051.1 7 9 83.00 53.20 0.00 27.10 2078.2 peak in density large larvae 7 10 77.30 53.30 0.00 24.30 2102.5 7 11 79.60 48.30 0.00 22.95 2125.5 7 12 83.20 52.70 0.00 26.95 2152.4 7 13 76.20 57.60 0.00 25.90 2178.3 7 14 86.50 51.60 0.00 28.05 2206.4 7 15 80.40 55.50 0.00 26.95 2233.3 7 16 73.00 47.10 0.00 19.05 2252.4 7 17 80.00 50.80 0.00 24.40 2276.8 7 18 83.50 51.50 0.00 26.50 2303.3 7 19 81.20 49.20 0.00 24.20 2327.5 7 20 74.00 51.60 0.00 21.80 2349.3 7 21 83.90 51.00 0.00 26.45 2375.7 7 22 90.80 56.80 0.00 32.80 2408.5 7 23 81.90 60.80 0.00 30.35 2438.9 7 24 86.50 56.40 0.00 30.45 2469.3 7 25 88.90 56.60 0.00 31.75 2501.1 7 26 85.80 59.10 0.00 31.45 2532.5 7 27 78.40 55.50 0.00 25.95 2558.5 7 28 81.70 53.50 0.00 26.60 2585.1 7 29 85.60 50.20 0.00 26.90 2612.0 7 30 88.20 58.30 0.00 32.25 2644.2 7 31 90.50 58.60 0.00 33.55 2677.8 8 1 96.90 61.00 0.00 37.95 2715.7 8 2 102.40 64.10 0.00 42.25 2758.0 8 3 104.40 62.00 0.00 42.20 2800.2 8 4 95.30 57.30 0.00 35.30 2835.5 8 5 87.80 55.70 0.00 30.75 2866.2 8 6 88.80 56.70 0.00 31.75 2898.0 8 7 91.90 60.80 0.00 35.35 2933.3 8 8 94.40 56.90 0.00 34.65 2968.0 8 9 95.50 59.20 0.00 36.35 3004.3 8 10 92.70 58.30 0.00 34.50 3038.8 8 11 87.50 60.90 0.00 33.20 3072.0 8 12 80.60 55.90 0.00 27.25 3099.3 8 13 72.80 57.40 0.11 24.10 3123.4 8 14 74.40 46.20 0.00 19.30 3142.7 8 15 81.50 50.10 0.00 24.80 3167.5 8 16 83.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 3196.5 8 17 79.70 56.80 0.00 27.25 3223.7 8 18 80.00 52.90 0.00 25.45 3249.2 8 19 77.80 55.90 0.00 25.85 3275.0 8 20 80.70 52.50 0.00 25.60 3300.6 8 21 92.50 56.60 0.00 33.55 3334.2 8 22 88.50 55.70 0.00 31.10 3365.3
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 3365QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 10 days behind 2016 ok
 21 days behind 2015 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
  8 23  83.00 58.00  0.00  29.50   3394.8  Partly_Cloudy_2%_precip    
  8 24  76.00 57.00  0.00  25.50   3420.3  Partly_Cloudy_3%_precip    
  8 25  82.00 50.00  0.00  25.00   3445.3  Sunny_15%_precip    
  8 26  90.00 51.00  0.00  29.50   3474.8  Sunny_2%_precip    
  8 27  94.00 56.00  0.00  34.00   3508.8  Sunny_4%_precip    
  8 28  94.00 57.00  0.00  34.50   3543.3  Sunny_6%_precip    
  8 29  91.00 57.00  0.00  33.00   3576.3  Mostly_Sunny_9%_precip    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg FOGO 2006-2015
  8 30  75.70 54.10  0.07  23.90   3600.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.20 53.00  0.05  23.10   3623.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  75.10 50.30  0.02  21.70   3645.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  77.90 50.70  0.01  23.30   3668.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  80.20 50.50  0.01  24.35   3692.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  79.90 51.10  0.01  24.50   3717.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  78.20 51.70  0.01  23.95   3741.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  78.10 51.90  0.09  24.00   3765.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  78.70 51.60  0.08  24.15   3789.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.80 51.30  0.05  25.05   3814.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  79.60 51.80  0.00  24.70   3839.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  78.80 51.90  0.00  24.35   3863.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  82.80 51.10  0.00  25.95   3889.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  86.60 51.00  0.00  27.80   3917.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  82.50 51.90  0.00  26.20   3943.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  76.00 51.70  0.00  22.85   3966.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  75.60 51.00  0.01  22.30   3988.4  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 3365 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 10 days behind 2016 ok
 21 days behind 2015 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-19-17 865peak pheromone trap catch
 5-23-17 971peak female adult emergence
 5-25-17 1003peak egg laying
 6-6-17 1277peak egg hatch
 7-9-17 2078peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)