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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 0.9 * START *
1 2 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 1.2
1 3 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 1.2
1 4 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 2.1
1 5 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 9.3
1 6 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 15.6
1 7 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 18.3
1 8 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 19.7
1 9 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 23.2
1 10 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 28.6
1 11 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 31.4
1 12 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 35.0
1 13 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 42.2
1 14 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 48.5
1 15 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 53.0
1 16 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 55.2
1 17 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 57.3
1 18 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 58.9
1 19 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 59.8
1 20 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 61.3
1 21 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 61.3
1 22 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 61.3
1 23 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 61.7
1 24 41.00 39.20 0.00 0.00 61.7
1 25 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 63.5
1 26 42.80 41.00 0.00 0.90 64.4
1 27 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 66.2
1 28 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 67.7
1 29 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 67.7
1 30 32.00 21.20 0.00 0.00 67.7
1 31 32.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 67.7
2 1 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 67.7
2 2 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 67.7
2 3 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 71.0
2 4 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 74.6
2 5 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 76.8
2 6 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 80.4
2 7 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 84.9
2 8 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 86.5
2 9 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 87.0
2 10 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 91.1
2 11 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 92.6
2 12 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 93.1
2 13 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 95.9
2 14 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 97.3
2 15 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 98.1
2 16 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 99.1
2 17 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 99.4
2 18 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 100.8
2 19 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 103.0
2 20 46.40 44.60 0.00 4.50 107.5
2 21 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 108.4
2 22 32.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 23 30.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 24 32.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 25 35.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 26 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 27 37.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 28 35.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 108.4
3 1 39.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 108.4
3 2 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 110.1
3 3 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 110.5
3 4 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 110.8
3 5 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 113.9
3 6 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 116.4
3 7 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 119.2
3 8 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 122.8
3 9 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 128.3
3 10 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 130.5
3 11 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 132.4
3 12 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 134.9
3 13 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 137.0
3 14 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 140.3
3 15 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 143.6
3 16 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 148.7
3 17 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 156.2
3 18 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 166.6
3 19 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 176.5
3 20 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 183.7
3 21 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 193.6
3 22 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 201.9
3 23 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 206.7
3 24 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 206.7
3 25 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 207.7
3 26 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 209.3
3 27 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 215.3
3 28 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 227.0
3 29 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 239.6
3 30 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 244.5
3 31 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 249.0
4 1 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 252.5
4 2 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 252.8
4 3 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 255.0
4 4 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 258.5
4 5 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 262.1
4 6 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 266.6
4 7 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 275.6
4 8 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 282.8
4 9 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 291.8
4 10 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 294.5
4 11 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 298.9
4 12 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 303.5
4 13 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 307.9
4 14 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 313.1
4 15 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 317.0
4 16 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 320.1
4 17 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 323.1
4 18 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 326.7
4 19 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 331.5
4 20 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 334.8
4 21 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 339.6
4 22 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 348.6
4 23 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 355.8
4 24 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 365.7
4 25 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 376.5
4 26 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 387.3
4 27 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 401.7
4 28 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 422.4
4 29 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 444.9
4 30 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 458.4
5 1 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 470.1
5 2 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 490.8
5 3 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 514.2
5 4 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 532.2
5 5 53.60 48.20 0.00 9.90 542.1
5 6 55.40 48.20 0.00 10.80 552.9
5 7 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 566.4
5 8 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 578.1
5 9 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 591.6
5 10 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 606.9
5 11 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 624.9
5 12 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 649.2
5 13 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 680.7
5 14 91.40 62.60 0.00 36.00 716.7
5 15 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 750.9
5 16 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 776.1
5 17 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 802.2
5 18 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 829.2
5 19 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 854.4 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 20 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 877.8
5 21 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 896.7
5 22 55.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 908.4
5 23 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 921.9
5 24 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 939.9
5 25 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 963.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 26 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 989.4
5 27 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1009.2 Peak egg laying
5 28 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1029.0
5 29 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1047.0
5 30 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 1060.5
5 31 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 1074.0
6 1 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1090.2
6 2 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1108.2
6 3 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1127.1
6 4 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1144.2
6 5 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1163.1
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CYXX PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 6 69.80 48.40 0.04 18.10 1181.2 *hist_fcst*
6 7 70.60 49.50 0.02 19.05 1200.3 *hist_fcst*
6 8 69.30 50.60 0.11 18.95 1219.2 *hist_fcst*
6 9 66.30 49.80 0.17 17.05 1236.3 *hist_fcst*
6 10 65.60 49.30 0.10 16.45 1252.7 *hist_fcst*
6 11 66.50 49.80 0.01 17.15 1269.9 *hist_fcst*
6 12 68.70 51.10 0.04 18.90 1288.8 *hist_fcst* Peak egg hatch
6 13 67.70 51.40 0.14 18.55 1307.3 *hist_fcst*
6 14 65.40 50.60 0.15 17.00 1324.3 *hist_fcst*
6 15 64.30 50.10 0.06 16.20 1340.5 *hist_fcst*
6 16 68.00 49.70 0.10 17.85 1358.4 *hist_fcst*
6 17 69.60 50.80 0.11 19.20 1377.6 *hist_fcst*
6 18 71.40 52.30 0.08 20.85 1398.4 *hist_fcst*
6 19 68.60 52.70 0.01 19.65 1418.1 *hist_fcst*
6 20 69.80 51.70 0.10 19.75 1437.8 *hist_fcst*
6 21 70.90 52.20 0.12 20.55 1458.4 *hist_fcst*
6 22 71.00 52.30 0.00 20.65 1479.0 *hist_fcst*
6 23 71.40 52.10 0.11 20.75 1499.8 *hist_fcst*
6 24 72.00 52.90 0.13 21.45 1521.2 *hist_fcst*
6 25 73.10 53.50 0.05 22.30 1543.5 *hist_fcst*
6 26 76.60 54.50 0.04 24.55 1568.1 *hist_fcst*
6 27 76.40 55.20 0.07 24.80 1592.9 *hist_fcst*
6 28 75.10 56.20 0.07 24.65 1617.5 *hist_fcst*
6 29 76.30 57.30 0.02 25.80 1643.3 *hist_fcst*
6 30 75.80 56.20 0.03 25.00 1668.3 *hist_fcst*
7 1 74.90 56.20 0.07 24.55 1692.9 *hist_fcst*
7 2 74.50 55.80 0.07 24.15 1717.0 *hist_fcst*
7 3 72.80 55.70 0.08 23.25 1740.3 *hist_fcst*
7 4 71.10 54.10 0.12 21.60 1761.9 *hist_fcst*
7 5 74.10 54.40 0.02 23.25 1785.1 *hist_fcst*
7 6 75.10 54.50 0.00 23.80 1808.9 *hist_fcst*
7 7 75.90 55.20 0.07 24.55 1833.5 *hist_fcst*
7 8 71.50 55.30 0.01 22.40 1855.9 *hist_fcst*
7 9 76.30 55.60 0.06 24.95 1880.8 *hist_fcst*
7 10 76.20 55.50 0.08 24.85 1905.7 *hist_fcst*
7 11 73.30 55.60 0.07 23.45 1929.1 *hist_fcst*
7 12 73.50 54.60 0.02 23.05 1952.2 *hist_fcst*
7 13 76.50 54.80 0.02 24.65 1976.8 *hist_fcst*
7 14 76.30 54.70 0.00 24.50 2001.3 *hist_fcst*
7 15 77.90 54.60 0.00 25.25 2026.6 *hist_fcst*
7 16 76.80 55.90 0.01 25.35 2051.9 *hist_fcst*
7 17 78.20 56.30 0.01 26.25 2078.2 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 18 75.60 55.00 0.03 24.30 2102.5 *hist_fcst*
7 19 77.00 56.10 0.01 25.55 2128.0 *hist_fcst*
7 20 76.80 56.70 0.00 25.75 2153.8 *hist_fcst*
7 21 74.70 54.60 0.09 23.65 2177.4 *hist_fcst*
7 22 76.40 54.00 0.00 24.20 2201.6 *hist_fcst*
7 23 74.40 55.60 0.02 24.00 2225.6 *hist_fcst*
7 24 74.50 55.40 0.14 23.95 2249.6 *hist_fcst*
7 25 75.50 54.10 0.21 23.80 2273.4 *hist_fcst*
7 26 79.40 54.50 0.00 25.95 2299.3 *hist_fcst*
7 27 79.00 55.20 0.03 26.10 2325.4 *hist_fcst*
7 28 78.20 55.20 0.00 25.70 2351.1 *hist_fcst*
7 29 79.50 54.40 0.00 25.95 2377.1 *hist_fcst*
7 30 82.40 55.50 0.00 27.95 2405.0 *hist_fcst*
7 31 82.30 56.80 0.00 28.55 2433.6 *hist_fcst*
8 1 78.80 56.50 0.00 26.65 2460.2 *hist_fcst*
8 2 78.60 56.30 0.01 26.45 2486.7 *hist_fcst*
8 3 77.20 56.80 0.06 26.00 2512.7 *hist_fcst*
8 4 78.90 56.80 0.00 26.85 2539.5 *hist_fcst*
8 5 82.20 56.00 0.00 28.10 2567.6 *hist_fcst*
8 6 79.30 56.20 0.00 26.75 2594.4 *hist_fcst*
8 7 77.30 55.90 0.07 25.60 2620.0 *hist_fcst*
8 8 76.40 55.60 0.04 25.00 2645.0 *hist_fcst*
8 9 76.60 56.10 0.00 25.35 2670.3 *hist_fcst*
8 10 78.40 56.30 0.00 26.35 2696.7 *hist_fcst*
8 11 80.00 56.80 0.01 27.40 2724.1 *hist_fcst*
8 12 79.70 57.00 0.01 27.35 2751.4 *hist_fcst*
8 13 80.60 58.00 0.05 28.30 2779.7 *hist_fcst*
8 14 79.00 56.80 0.02 26.90 2806.6 *hist_fcst*
8 15 77.30 56.20 0.02 25.75 2832.4 *hist_fcst*
8 16 78.50 57.10 0.00 26.80 2859.2 *hist_fcst*
8 17 77.80 56.90 0.01 26.35 2885.5 *hist_fcst*
8 18 77.60 56.20 0.00 25.90 2911.4 *hist_fcst*
8 19 77.90 55.50 0.00 25.70 2937.1 *hist_fcst*
8 20 77.50 55.20 0.01 25.35 2962.5 *hist_fcst*
8 21 76.80 55.30 0.04 25.05 2987.5 *hist_fcst*
8 22 73.90 53.70 0.12 22.80 3010.3 *hist_fcst*
8 23 75.90 53.90 0.00 23.90 3034.2 *hist_fcst*
8 24 74.50 53.20 0.03 22.85 3057.1 *hist_fcst*
8 25 74.70 51.70 0.01 22.20 3079.3 *hist_fcst*
8 26 76.10 52.20 0.01 23.15 3102.4 *hist_fcst*
8 27 76.60 54.10 0.02 24.35 3126.8 *hist_fcst*
8 28 78.20 54.50 0.04 25.35 3152.1 *hist_fcst*
8 29 76.60 55.60 0.10 25.10 3177.2 *hist_fcst*
8 30 75.00 54.80 0.22 23.90 3201.1 *hist_fcst*
8 31 70.10 54.80 0.07 21.45 3222.6 *hist_fcst*
9 1 69.70 53.50 0.18 20.60 3243.2 *hist_fcst*
9 2 72.60 52.10 0.05 21.35 3264.5 *hist_fcst*
9 3 72.90 51.90 0.12 21.40 3285.9 *hist_fcst*
9 4 73.10 51.30 0.06 21.20 3307.1 *hist_fcst*
9 5 75.70 51.30 0.02 22.50 3329.6 *hist_fcst*
9 6 74.00 53.40 0.05 22.70 3352.3 *hist_fcst*
9 7 76.30 54.80 0.05 24.55 3376.9 *hist_fcst*
9 8 75.50 54.10 0.16 23.80 3400.7 *hist_fcst*
9 9 72.30 54.60 0.15 22.45 3423.1 *hist_fcst*
9 10 71.70 53.00 0.13 21.35 3444.5 *hist_fcst*
9 11 73.10 53.40 0.02 22.25 3466.7 *hist_fcst*
9 12 73.90 52.00 0.07 21.95 3488.7 *hist_fcst*
9 13 72.70 51.40 0.14 21.05 3509.7 *hist_fcst*
9 14 71.70 50.50 0.04 20.10 3529.8 *hist_fcst*
9 15 69.70 50.70 0.15 19.20 3549.0 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C. Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | | | This year is about | versus | QA | | 15 days ahead | 2022 | ok | | 6 days ahead | 2021 | ok | | 8 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
| Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-19-23 | 854 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-25-23 | 963 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-27-23 | 1009 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-12-23 | 1289 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-17-23 | 2078 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?36713)
