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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 26.60 10.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 42.80 24.80 0.00 0.24 0.2
1 3 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 0.6
1 4 39.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.6
1 5 24.80 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.6
1 6 41.20 19.40 0.00 0.01 0.6 Hx
1 7 42.40 32.80 0.00 0.23 0.8 Hx Hn
1 8 33.80 30.20 0.00 0.00 0.8
1 9 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 1.1
1 10 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 1.1
1 11 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 3.6
1 12 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 4.1
1 13 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 8.1
1 14 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 10.8
1 15 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 11.2
1 16 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 12.4
1 17 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 12.8
1 18 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 14.6
1 19 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 17.3
1 20 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 23.6
1 21 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 26.3
1 22 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 27.9
1 23 37.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 27.9
1 24 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 27.9
1 25 37.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 27.9
1 26 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 27.9
1 27 48.20 24.80 0.00 1.75 29.7
1 28 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 30.4
1 29 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 30.4
1 30 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 33.1
1 31 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 33.9
2 1 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 34.2
2 2 33.80 30.20 0.00 0.00 34.2
2 3 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 34.2
2 4 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 35.9
2 5 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 38.1
2 6 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 41.2
2 7 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 45.0
2 8 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 46.9
2 9 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 50.5
2 10 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 55.0
2 11 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 61.1
2 12 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 66.8
2 13 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 72.0
2 14 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 74.2
2 15 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 76.9
2 16 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 79.4
2 17 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 81.3
2 18 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 86.7
2 19 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 88.5
2 20 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 90.2
2 21 37.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 90.2
2 22 30.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 90.2
2 23 33.80 21.20 0.00 0.00 90.2
2 24 41.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 90.2
2 25 44.60 23.00 0.00 0.63 90.8
2 26 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 92.2
2 27 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 97.0
2 28 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 98.4
3 1 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 107.4
3 2 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 111.0
3 3 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 114.6
3 4 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 120.2
3 5 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 124.4
3 6 53.60 30.20 0.00 4.19 128.6
3 7 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 130.3
3 8 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 136.6
3 9 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 137.9
3 10 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.66 138.6
3 11 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 138.6
3 12 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 142.1
3 13 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 148.4
3 14 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 151.1
3 15 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 155.0
3 16 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 159.4
3 17 42.80 41.00 0.00 0.90 160.3
3 18 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 165.7
3 19 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 170.5
3 20 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 172.4
3 21 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 175.5
3 22 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 184.5
3 23 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 190.8
3 24 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 197.4
3 25 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 204.6
3 26 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 212.7
3 27 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 226.2
3 28 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 237.9
3 29 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 246.9
3 30 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 255.0
3 31 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 261.3
4 1 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 264.8
4 2 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 271.1
4 3 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 277.4
4 4 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 281.9
4 5 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 286.7
4 6 57.20 33.80 0.00 6.25 292.9
4 7 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 308.2
4 8 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 316.3
4 9 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 320.8
4 10 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 324.1
4 11 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 329.8
4 12 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 330.9
4 13 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 334.7
4 14 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 338.3
4 15 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 341.9
4 16 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 345.5
4 17 55.40 39.20 0.00 6.56 352.1
4 18 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 357.5
4 19 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 362.3
4 20 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 368.8
4 21 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 375.1
4 22 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 384.1
4 23 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 393.1
4 24 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 404.8
4 25 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 413.8
4 26 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 421.0
4 27 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 425.9
4 28 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 433.1
4 29 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 442.1
4 30 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 453.8
5 1 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 464.6
5 2 53.60 50.00 0.00 10.80 475.4
5 3 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 485.3
5 4 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 495.2
5 5 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 502.4
5 6 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 510.5
5 7 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 519.5
5 8 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 525.2
5 9 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 532.4
5 10 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 540.5
5 11 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 550.4
5 12 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 556.7
5 13 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 563.9
5 14 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 574.7
5 15 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 586.4
5 16 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 597.2
5 17 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 607.1
5 18 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 617.9
5 19 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 626.0
5 20 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 636.1
5 21 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 650.5
5 22 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 666.7
5 23 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 682.9
5 24 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 696.4
5 25 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 713.5
5 26 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 730.6
5 27 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 745.9
5 28 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 760.3
5 29 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 774.7
5 30 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 786.4
5 31 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 807.1
6 1 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 830.5
6 2 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 856.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
6 3 62.60 55.40 0.00 18.00 874.6
6 4 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 897.1
6 5 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 913.3
6 6 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 928.6
6 7 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 948.4
6 8 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 969.1 Peak female adult emergence
6 9 57.20 53.60 0.00 14.40 983.5
6 10 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1003.3 Peak egg laying
6 11 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1023.1
6 12 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1039.3
6 13 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1054.6
6 14 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1069.0
6 15 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1084.3
6 16 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1102.3
6 17 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1118.5
6 18 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1134.7
6 19 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1150.0
6 20 64.40 53.60 0.00 18.00 1168.0
6 21 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1187.8
6 22 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1207.6
6 23 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1226.5
6 24 77.00 48.20 0.00 21.60 1248.1
6 25 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 1277.8 Peak egg hatch
6 26 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 1311.1
6 27 91.40 60.80 0.00 35.10 1346.2
6 28 68.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 1368.7
6 29 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 1389.4
6 30 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1411.0
7 1 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1434.4
7 2 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1454.2
7 3 59.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 1470.4
7 4 66.20 55.40 0.00 19.80 1490.2
7 5 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1515.4
7 6 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 1541.5
7 7 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 1567.6
7 8 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 1593.7
7 9 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1618.0
7 10 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 1643.2
7 11 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 1672.9
7 12 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 1699.9
7 13 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1723.3
7 14 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1746.7
7 15 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 1771.0
7 16 69.80 60.80 0.00 24.30 1795.3
7 17 66.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 1816.0
7 18 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1836.7
7 19 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 1861.9
7 20 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 1890.7
7 21 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 1919.5
7 22 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 1942.9
7 23 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1966.3
7 24 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1994.2
7 25 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 2026.6
7 26 93.20 62.60 0.00 36.90 2063.5
7 27 89.60 66.20 0.00 36.90 2100.4 Peak in density large larvae
7 28 91.40 60.80 0.00 35.10 2135.5
7 29 93.20 62.60 0.00 36.90 2172.4
7 30 91.40 62.60 0.00 36.00 2208.4
7 31 93.20 59.00 0.00 35.10 2243.5
8 1 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2272.3
8 2 75.20 57.20 0.00 25.20 2297.5
8 3 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2320.0
8 4 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 2342.5
8 5 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2367.7
8 6 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2394.7
8 7 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 2427.1
8 8 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2458.6
8 9 80.60 60.80 0.00 29.70 2488.3
8 10 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 2513.5
8 11 78.80 62.60 0.00 29.70 2543.2
8 12 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2569.3
8 13 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 2594.5
8 14 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2621.5
8 15 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2651.2
8 16 82.40 60.80 0.00 30.60 2681.8
8 17 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 2716.0
8 18 91.40 64.40 0.00 36.90 2752.9
8 19 82.40 68.00 0.00 34.20 2787.1
8 20 77.00 62.60 0.00 28.80 2815.9
8 21 80.60 62.60 0.00 30.60 2846.5
8 22 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2875.3
8 23 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 2902.3
8 24 89.60 57.20 0.00 32.40 2934.7
8 25 84.20 62.60 0.00 32.40 2967.1
8 26 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 2990.5
8 27 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 3013.9
8 28 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 3038.2
8 29 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 3067.9
8 30 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 3102.1
8 31 84.20 62.60 0.00 32.40 3134.5
9 1 78.80 60.80 0.00 28.80 3163.3
9 2 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 3192.1
9 3 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 3218.2
9 4 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3241.6
9 5 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 3263.2
9 6 80.60 48.20 0.00 23.40 3286.6
9 7 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 3310.0
9 8 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 3332.5
9 9 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 3357.7
9 10 89.60 57.20 0.00 32.40 3390.1
9 11 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 3418.9
9 12 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3442.3
9 13 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3463.0
9 14 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 3485.5
9 15 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 3507.1
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CYXX PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C. Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 6-2-22 | 857 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 6-8-22 | 969 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 6-10-22 | 1003 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-25-22 | 1278 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-27-22 | 2100 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1902)
