Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 33.80 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 30.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 26.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 30.20 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 0.3 1 10 30.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 11 32.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 12 30.20 15.80 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 13 28.40 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 14 35.60 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 15 39.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 16 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 17 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 3.7 1 18 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 10.9 1 19 46.40 39.00 0.00 2.15 13.1 1 20 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 15.6 1 21 48.20 39.00 0.00 3.00 18.6 1 22 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 19.5 1 23 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 20.9 1 24 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 20.9 1 25 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 20.9 1 26 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 22.4 1 27 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 24.7 1 28 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 25.7 1 29 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 27.9 1 30 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 29.1 1 31 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.26 29.3 2 1 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 29.3 2 2 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 29.7 2 3 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 4 30.20 28.00 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 5 30.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 6 28.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 7 30.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 8 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 9 45.00 30.20 0.00 0.91 30.6 2 10 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 32.5 2 11 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 33.5 2 12 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 35.0 2 13 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 37.9 2 14 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 40.7 2 15 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 47.0 2 16 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 56.9 2 17 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 62.6 2 18 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 63.7 2 19 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 65.9 2 20 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 68.6 2 21 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 70.2 2 22 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 71.1 2 23 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 72.0 2 24 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 73.4 2 25 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 73.4 2 26 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 74.3 2 27 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 74.3 2 28 39.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 74.3 3 1 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 76.5 3 2 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 78.4 3 3 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 80.1 3 4 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 80.4 3 5 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 80.4 3 6 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 80.4 3 7 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 80.4 3 8 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 81.2 3 9 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 81.2 3 10 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 84.8 3 11 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 87.8 3 12 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 95.0 3 13 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 100.4 3 14 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 110.3 3 15 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 117.5 3 16 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 121.5 3 17 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 123.9 3 18 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 126.4 3 19 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 129.5 3 20 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 135.2 3 21 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 141.5 3 22 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 149.6 3 23 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 156.8 3 24 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 164.0 3 25 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 170.3 3 26 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 173.0 3 27 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 179.3 3 28 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 182.9 3 29 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 189.2 3 30 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 195.5 3 31 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 200.4 4 1 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 208.5 4 2 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 213.9 4 3 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 219.3 4 4 56.60 39.10 0.00 7.12 226.4 Hx Hn 4 5 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 230.3 Hn 4 6 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 237.5 4 7 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 247.4 4 8 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 251.9 4 9 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 259.1 4 10 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 266.3 4 11 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 274.7 4 12 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 285.5 4 13 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 293.6 4 14 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 299.9 4 15 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 306.2 4 16 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 317.2 4 17 55.40 48.20 0.00 10.80 328.0 4 18 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 339.7 4 19 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 347.8 4 20 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 358.6 4 21 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 374.8 4 22 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 389.2 4 23 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 399.1 4 24 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 409.9 4 25 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 422.5 4 26 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 434.2 4 27 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 443.2 4 28 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 454.0 4 29 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 459.4 4 30 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 469.3 5 1 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 476.5 5 2 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 487.3 5 3 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 500.8 5 4 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 524.2 5 5 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 536.8 5 6 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 545.8 5 7 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 555.7 5 8 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 568.3 5 9 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 581.8 5 10 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 598.9 5 11 57.20 50.00 0.00 12.60 611.5 5 12 55.40 44.80 0.00 9.10 620.6 Hn 5 13 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 628.7 5 14 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 640.4 5 15 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 646.7 5 16 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 653.9 5 17 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 664.7 5 18 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 680.9 5 19 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 698.0 5 20 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 716.9 5 21 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 739.4 5 22 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 764.6 5 23 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 787.1 5 24 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 800.6 5 25 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 816.8 5 26 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 840.2 5 27 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 865.4 peak pheromone trap catch 5 28 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 895.1 5 29 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 920.3 5 30 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 933.8 5 31 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 952.7 peak female adult emergence 6 1 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 971.6 6 2 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 991.4 6 3 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1007.6 peak egg laying 6 4 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1023.8 6 5 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 1040.9 6 6 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 1067.0 6 7 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 1094.0 6 8 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1110.2 6 9 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1126.4 6 10 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1141.7 6 11 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1160.6 6 12 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1179.5 6 13 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1195.7 6 14 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1211.0 6 15 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 1224.5 6 16 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1242.5 6 17 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1256.9 6 18 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1271.3 peak egg hatch 6 19 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1292.0 6 20 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1312.7 6 21 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1330.7 6 22 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1349.6 6 23 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1373.9 6 24 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 1405.4 6 25 87.80 64.40 0.00 35.10 1440.5 6 26 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1464.8 6 27 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1485.5 6 28 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 1507.1 6 29 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1532.3 6 30 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1560.2 7 1 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 1581.8 7 2 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1605.2 7 3 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1627.7 7 4 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1651.1 7 5 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1678.1 7 6 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1706.0 7 7 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 1728.5 7 8 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1752.8 7 9 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 1779.8 7 10 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1802.3 7 11 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 1823.9 7 12 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1846.4 7 13 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 1869.8 7 14 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1893.2 7 15 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1917.5 7 16 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1938.2 7 17 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 1959.8 7 18 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1985.9 7 19 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2010.2 7 20 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 2035.4 7 21 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2057.0 7 22 71.60 60.80 0.00 25.20 2082.2 peak in density large larvae 7 23 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2109.2 7 24 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2135.3 7 25 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2164.1 7 26 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2189.3 7 27 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2210.9 7 28 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2234.3 7 29 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2259.5 7 30 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 2288.3 7 31 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2316.2 8 1 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 2346.8 8 2 93.20 59.00 0.00 35.10 2381.9 8 3 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 2414.3 8 4 78.80 60.80 0.00 28.80 2443.1 8 5 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2466.5 8 6 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2494.4 8 7 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2522.3 8 8 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2552.0 8 9 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2583.5 8 10 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2615.0 8 11 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2642.9 8 12 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2669.0 8 13 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 2693.3 8 14 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2715.8 8 15 75.20 50.00 0.00 21.60 2737.4 8 16 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2759.9 8 17 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2786.9 8 18 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 2810.3 8 19 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2833.7 8 20 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 2858.0 8 21 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2884.1 8 22 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 2914.7
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 2915QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 16 days behind 2016 ok
 23 days behind 2015 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
  8 23  72.00 56.00  0.00  23.00   2937.7  Partly_Cloudy_3%_precip    
  8 24  72.00 55.00  0.00  22.50   2960.2  Partly_Cloudy_10%_precip    
  8 25  76.00 49.00  0.00  21.50   2981.7  Partly_Cloudy_25%_precip    
  8 26  81.00 51.00  0.00  25.00   3006.7  Mostly_Sunny_4%_precip    
  8 27  82.00 54.00  0.00  27.00   3033.7  Sunny_5%_precip    
  8 28  85.00 55.00  0.00  29.00   3062.7  Sunny_10%_precip    
  8 29  83.00 56.00  0.00  28.50   3091.2  Sunny_7%_precip    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg CYXX 2006-2015
  8 30  71.70 54.30  0.26  22.00   3113.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  70.80 52.70  0.06  20.75   3133.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  68.60 51.70  0.28  19.15   3153.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  70.70 50.20  0.04  19.45   3172.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  71.70 50.40  0.13  20.05   3192.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  71.70 51.10  0.06  20.40   3213.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  72.60 51.10  0.01  20.85   3233.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  71.50 51.70  0.05  20.60   3254.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  71.80 52.50  0.17  21.15   3275.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  73.60 51.50  0.03  21.55   3297.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  73.00 52.10  0.09  21.55   3318.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  71.50 51.50  0.08  20.50   3339.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  72.80 51.00  0.00  20.90   3360.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  76.60 50.10  0.04  22.35   3382.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  74.10 51.40  0.17  21.75   3404.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  72.00 50.90  0.01  20.45   3424.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  69.90 50.80  0.02  19.35   3444.0  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C.
DD accumulation on 8-22-17: 2915 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 16 days behind 2016 ok
 23 days behind 2015 ok
 9 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-27-17 865peak pheromone trap catch
 5-31-17 953peak female adult emergence
 6-3-17 1008peak egg laying
 6-18-17 1271peak egg hatch
 7-22-17 2082peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)