Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 33.80 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 30.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 26.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 5 30.20 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 6 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 7 35.60 21.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 8 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 9 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 0.3 1 10 30.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 11 32.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 12 30.20 15.80 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 13 28.40 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 14 35.60 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 15 39.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 16 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 0.3 1 17 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 3.7 1 18 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 10.9 1 19 46.40 39.00 0.00 2.15 13.1 1 20 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 15.6 1 21 48.20 39.00 0.00 3.00 18.6 1 22 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 19.5 1 23 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 20.9 1 24 39.20 28.40 0.00 0.00 20.9 1 25 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 20.9 1 26 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 22.4 1 27 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 24.7 1 28 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 25.7 1 29 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 27.9 1 30 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 29.1 1 31 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.26 29.3 2 1 41.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 29.3 2 2 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 29.7 2 3 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 4 30.20 28.00 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 5 30.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 6 28.40 21.20 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 7 30.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 8 30.20 23.00 0.00 0.00 29.7 2 9 45.00 30.20 0.00 0.91 30.6 2 10 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 32.5 2 11 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 33.5 2 12 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 35.0 2 13 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 37.9 2 14 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 40.7 2 15 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 47.0 2 16 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 56.9 2 17 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 62.6 2 18 44.60 37.40 0.00 1.15 63.7 2 19 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 65.9 2 20 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 68.6 2 21 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 70.2 2 22 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 71.1 2 23 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 72.0 2 24 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 73.4 2 25 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 73.4 2 26 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 74.3 2 27 33.80 26.60 0.00 0.00 74.3 2 28 39.20 26.60 0.00 0.00 74.3 3 1 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 76.5 3 2 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 78.4 3 3 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 80.1 3 4 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 80.4 3 5 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 80.4 3 6 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 80.4 3 7 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 80.4 3 8 44.60 32.00 0.00 0.84 81.2 3 9 39.20 33.80 0.00 0.00 81.2 3 10 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 84.8 3 11 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 87.8 3 12 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 95.0 3 13 48.20 44.60 0.00 5.40 100.4 3 14 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 110.3 3 15 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 117.5 3 16 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 121.5 3 17 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 123.9 3 18 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 126.4 3 19 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 129.5 3 20 55.40 35.60 0.00 5.73 135.2 3 21 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 141.5 3 22 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 149.6 3 23 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 156.8 3 24 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 164.0 3 25 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 170.3 3 26 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 173.0 3 27 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 179.3 3 28 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 182.9 3 29 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 189.2 3 30 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 195.5 3 31 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 200.4 4 1 53.60 44.60 0.00 8.10 208.5 4 2 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 213.9 4 3 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 219.3 4 4 56.60 39.10 0.00 7.12 226.4 Hx Hn 4 5 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 230.3 Hn 4 6 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 237.5 4 7 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 247.4 4 8 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 251.9 4 9 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 259.1 4 10 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 266.3 4 11 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 274.7 4 12 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 285.5 4 13 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 293.6 4 14 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 299.9 4 15 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 306.2 4 16 64.40 39.20 0.00 11.01 317.2 4 17 55.40 48.20 0.00 10.80 328.0 4 18 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 339.7 4 19 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 347.8 4 20 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 358.6 4 21 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 374.8 4 22 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 389.2 4 23 55.40 46.40 0.00 9.90 399.1 4 24 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 409.9 4 25 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 422.5 4 26 59.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 434.2 4 27 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 443.2 4 28 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 454.0 4 29 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 459.4 4 30 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 469.3 5 1 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 476.5 5 2 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 487.3 5 3 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 500.8 5 4 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 524.2 5 5 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 536.8 5 6 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 545.8 5 7 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 555.7 5 8 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 568.3 5 9 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 581.8 5 10 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 598.9 5 11 57.20 50.00 0.00 12.60 611.5 5 12 55.40 44.80 0.00 9.10 620.6 Hn 5 13 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 628.7 5 14 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 640.4 5 15 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 646.7 5 16 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 653.9 5 17 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 664.7 5 18 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 680.9 5 19 68.00 48.20 0.00 17.10 698.0 5 20 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 716.9 5 21 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 739.4 5 22 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 764.6 5 23 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 787.1 5 24 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 800.6 5 25 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 816.8 5 26 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 840.2 5 27 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 865.4 peak pheromone trap catch 5 28 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 895.1 5 29 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 920.3 5 30 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 933.8 5 31 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 952.7 peak female adult emergence 6 1 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 971.6 6 2 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 991.4 6 3 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1007.6 peak egg laying 6 4 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1023.8 6 5 73.40 42.80 0.00 17.10 1040.9 6 6 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 1067.0 6 7 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 1094.0 6 8 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1110.2 6 9 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1126.4 6 10 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1141.7 6 11 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1160.6 6 12 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1179.5 6 13 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1195.7 6 14 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1211.0 6 15 57.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 1224.5 6 16 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1242.5 6 17 60.80 50.00 0.00 14.40 1256.9 6 18 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1271.3 peak egg hatch 6 19 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1292.0 6 20 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1312.7 6 21 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1330.7 6 22 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1349.6 6 23 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1373.9 6 24 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 1405.4 QA 100% ok  
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for CYXX data
  6 25  92.00 51.80  0.00  30.90   1436.3  0.00_21.90%_precip.    
  6 26  74.30 53.20  0.00  22.75   1459.0  0.00_13.75%_precip.    
  6 27  70.10 50.20  0.00  19.15   1478.2  0.00_10.15%_precip.    
  6 28  66.00 57.30  0.00  20.65   1498.8  0.00_11.65%_precip.    
  6 29  69.50 55.50  0.00  21.50   1520.3  0.001_12.50%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg CYXX 2006-2015
  6 30  74.50 54.70  0.07  23.60   1543.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  1  75.70 53.70  0.05  23.70   1567.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7  2  76.20 53.20  0.01  23.70   1591.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  3  76.20 53.80  0.06  24.00   1615.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7  4  73.10 53.80  0.06  22.45   1637.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7  5  74.00 53.40  0.00  22.70   1660.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  6  75.40 53.90  0.01  23.65   1684.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7  7  73.10 53.70  0.02  22.40   1706.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7  8  74.80 53.90  0.04  23.35   1729.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7  9  77.50 54.10  0.04  24.80   1754.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 10  77.80 54.70  0.00  25.25   1779.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 11  75.00 54.00  0.00  23.50   1803.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 12  76.80 54.20  0.00  24.50   1827.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 13  73.80 55.20  0.08  23.50   1851.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 14  73.60 54.70  0.02  23.15   1874.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 15  76.00 54.20  0.02  24.10   1898.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 16  76.80 55.40  0.02  25.10   1923.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 17  78.50 55.00  0.02  25.75   1949.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 18  74.70 54.40  0.04  23.55   1973.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 19  74.30 54.90  0.03  23.60   1996.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 20  75.60 55.40  0.01  24.50   2021.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  73.80 55.20  0.11  23.50   2044.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  76.60 55.60  0.07  25.10   2069.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  73.60 55.40  0.04  23.50   2093.3  *hist_fcst*   peak in density large larvae
  7 24  73.10 55.00  0.16  23.05   2116.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  75.50 54.40  0.21  23.95   2140.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  76.00 54.50  0.03  24.25   2164.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  75.90 55.70  0.00  24.80   2189.3  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  76.30 54.90  0.00  24.60   2213.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  77.30 55.00  0.00  25.15   2239.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  77.10 55.60  0.02  25.35   2264.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  76.90 54.30  0.02  24.60   2289.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  76.10 53.20  0.03  23.65   2312.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  76.50 54.20  0.00  24.35   2337.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  76.20 54.80  0.02  24.50   2361.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  77.30 54.90  0.00  25.10   2386.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  78.90 55.10  0.01  26.00   2412.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  77.00 55.00  0.00  25.00   2437.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  75.80 54.90  0.00  24.35   2462.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  73.60 55.50  0.04  23.55   2485.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  72.60 55.30  0.01  22.95   2508.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  73.60 54.90  0.15  23.25   2531.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  74.30 54.90  0.17  23.60   2555.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  76.80 53.90  0.06  24.35   2579.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  76.40 55.10  0.04  24.75   2604.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  75.90 55.00  0.04  24.45   2628.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  76.20 56.10  0.02  25.15   2654.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  77.40 56.00  0.00  25.70   2679.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  78.00 55.50  0.00  25.75   2705.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  78.10 55.40  0.00  25.75   2731.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  76.10 55.30  0.02  24.70   2755.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  75.20 55.50  0.08  24.35   2780.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  74.00 54.20  0.07  23.10   2803.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  73.80 53.90  0.03  22.85   2826.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  74.10 53.70  0.06  22.90   2849.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  75.50 53.50  0.02  23.50   2872.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  74.70 51.80  0.10  22.25   2894.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  75.20 52.50  0.01  22.85   2917.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  75.30 53.30  0.06  23.30   2941.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  76.00 53.20  0.06  23.60   2964.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  74.10 54.80  0.15  23.45   2988.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  71.70 54.30  0.26  22.00   3010.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  70.80 52.70  0.06  20.75   3030.8  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  68.60 51.70  0.28  19.15   3050.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  70.70 50.20  0.04  19.45   3069.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  71.70 50.40  0.13  20.05   3089.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  71.70 51.10  0.06  20.40   3109.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  72.60 51.10  0.01  20.85   3130.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  71.50 51.70  0.05  20.60   3151.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  71.80 52.50  0.17  21.15   3172.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  73.60 51.50  0.03  21.55   3194.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  73.00 52.10  0.09  21.55   3215.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  71.50 51.50  0.08  20.50   3236.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  72.80 51.00  0.00  20.90   3257.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  76.60 50.10  0.04  22.35   3279.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  74.10 51.40  0.17  21.75   3301.1  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  72.00 50.90  0.01  20.45   3321.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  69.90 50.80  0.02  19.35   3340.9  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2017 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C.
QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 25 days behind 2016 ok
 22 days behind 2015 ok
 1 day ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-27-17 865peak pheromone trap catch
 5-31-17 953peak female adult emergence
 6-3-17 1008peak egg laying
 6-18-17 1271peak egg hatch
 7-23-17 2093peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)