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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 44.30 34.70 0.00 0.85 0.9 * START *
1 2 44.70 36.00 0.06 1.08 1.9
1 3 45.30 35.00 0.19 1.24 3.2
1 4 46.70 38.80 0.28 2.26 5.4
1 5 58.10 39.70 0.04 8.05 13.5
1 6 53.10 39.10 0.10 5.40 18.9
1 7 51.70 43.20 0.24 6.45 25.3
1 8 50.60 40.10 0.16 4.46 29.8
1 9 52.70 40.80 0.25 5.76 35.5
1 10 49.00 37.10 0.08 3.03 38.6
1 11 47.60 36.80 0.34 2.36 40.9
1 12 54.40 44.30 0.20 8.35 49.3
1 13 52.80 47.80 0.20 9.30 58.6
1 14 54.00 43.60 0.06 7.80 66.4
1 15 51.20 43.70 0.22 6.45 72.8
1 16 48.10 34.50 0.06 2.32 75.2
1 17 48.30 40.10 0.03 3.33 78.5
1 18 47.30 38.30 0.23 2.45 80.9
1 19 46.30 34.50 0.01 1.59 82.5
1 20 38.50 34.20 0.00 0.00 82.5
1 21 45.60 33.80 0.04 1.27 83.8
1 22 44.00 30.10 0.02 0.61 84.4
1 23 47.80 32.70 0.00 2.04 86.4
1 24 37.30 30.60 0.01 0.00 86.4
1 25 42.90 33.30 0.01 0.37 86.8
1 26 42.40 40.00 0.00 0.49 87.3
1 27 51.20 38.40 0.04 4.31 91.6
1 28 47.20 36.90 0.31 2.20 93.8
1 29 39.30 28.60 0.00 0.00 93.8
1 30 39.30 24.30 0.00 0.00 93.8
1 31 41.80 23.00 0.00 0.07 93.9
2 1 48.30 24.90 0.00 1.79 95.7
2 2 44.00 24.80 0.00 0.51 96.2
2 3 52.40 30.20 0.10 3.68 99.9
2 4 51.00 41.20 0.01 5.10 105.0
2 5 50.30 39.60 0.20 4.17 109.1
2 6 49.90 38.00 0.00 3.61 112.7
2 7 51.50 39.70 0.18 4.79 117.5
2 8 45.60 34.10 0.01 1.29 118.8
2 9 56.80 31.40 0.02 5.71 124.5
2 10 53.60 43.40 0.02 7.50 132.0
2 11 48.50 33.20 0.00 2.36 134.4
2 12 43.40 29.80 0.01 0.44 134.8
2 13 46.00 38.00 0.14 1.81 136.6
2 14 43.40 29.00 0.38 0.42 137.1
2 15 44.60 25.70 0.00 0.68 137.7
2 16 44.60 27.40 0.00 0.71 138.4
2 17 54.20 31.50 0.00 4.59 143.0
2 18 50.90 33.90 0.00 3.44 146.5
2 19 54.40 33.90 0.00 4.99 151.5
2 20 52.90 39.40 0.00 5.39 156.9
2 21 47.60 35.50 0.30 2.21 159.1
2 22 40.20 33.50 0.19 0.00 159.1
2 23 41.40 23.60 0.09 0.03 159.1
2 24 36.50 22.70 0.00 0.00 159.1
2 25 45.20 22.10 0.00 0.77 159.9
2 26 45.80 32.80 0.48 1.29 161.2
2 27 46.70 33.00 0.21 1.64 162.8
2 28 41.40 32.40 0.38 0.04 162.8
3 1 46.90 26.90 0.00 1.40 164.2
3 2 47.30 35.90 0.15 2.12 166.4
3 3 45.60 32.70 0.05 1.21 167.6
3 4 43.20 35.60 0.21 0.52 168.1
3 5 43.80 31.60 0.18 0.58 168.7
3 6 49.80 37.20 0.05 3.42 172.1
3 7 49.20 32.20 0.10 2.56 174.6
3 8 45.50 29.60 0.13 1.05 175.7
3 9 47.50 37.70 0.42 2.44 178.1
3 10 47.30 35.40 0.15 2.07 180.2
3 11 53.50 34.90 0.02 4.74 184.9
3 12 55.50 32.80 0.22 5.33 190.3
3 13 51.00 37.50 1.09 4.03 194.3
3 14 50.50 32.80 0.01 3.15 197.4
3 15 52.90 37.60 0.00 4.95 202.4
3 16 58.90 33.60 0.00 7.00 209.4
3 17 59.60 29.90 0.00 6.75 216.2
3 18 62.20 34.20 0.00 8.66 224.8
3 19 54.00 42.80 0.10 7.40 232.2
3 20 49.60 37.60 0.10 3.39 235.6
3 21 61.80 36.30 0.00 8.92 244.5
3 22 61.50 39.20 0.00 9.57 254.1
3 23 46.60 37.70 0.24 2.04 256.1
3 24 46.20 32.40 0.60 1.41 257.5
3 25 48.70 34.40 0.17 2.56 260.1
3 26 47.20 30.60 0.00 1.68 261.8
3 27 44.50 29.60 0.10 0.74 262.5
3 28 47.80 39.00 0.13 2.81 265.3
3 29 56.40 38.10 0.00 6.75 272.1
3 30 52.50 35.90 0.00 4.44 276.5
3 31 48.20 39.50 0.08 3.12 279.6
4 1 48.30 37.00 0.00 2.70 282.3 Px Pn
4 2 45.90 36.20 0.46 1.57 283.9
4 3 48.40 34.10 0.14 2.40 286.3
4 4 49.50 36.50 0.07 3.17 289.5
4 5 50.50 34.20 0.10 3.30 292.8
4 6 54.70 45.60 0.44 9.15 301.9
4 7 56.10 46.70 0.41 10.40 312.3
4 8 59.70 43.60 0.00 10.65 323.0
4 9 55.60 49.10 0.40 11.35 334.3
4 10 52.80 41.20 0.95 6.00 340.3
4 11 51.10 39.00 0.07 4.40 344.7
4 12 48.40 35.80 0.16 2.59 347.3
4 13 53.80 33.30 0.00 4.64 352.0
4 14 59.40 34.50 0.00 7.40 359.4
4 15 58.90 36.80 0.00 7.64 367.0
4 16 51.20 42.70 0.15 5.95 373.0
4 17 48.30 38.90 0.21 3.03 376.0
4 18 47.90 36.30 0.17 2.43 378.4
4 19 49.30 38.30 0.16 3.38 381.8
4 20 48.10 35.60 0.51 2.43 384.2
4 21 54.10 47.10 0.01 9.60 393.8
4 22 68.00 51.10 0.18 18.55 412.4
4 23 56.20 47.10 0.01 10.65 423.0
4 24 56.90 42.30 0.06 8.60 431.6
4 25 65.20 38.00 0.00 11.03 442.7
4 26 74.10 43.70 0.00 17.90 460.6
4 27 75.20 51.30 0.00 22.25 482.8
4 28 87.90 54.90 0.00 30.40 513.2
4 29 79.10 46.90 0.00 22.00 535.2
4 30 63.00 43.70 0.00 12.35 547.6
5 1 59.30 43.90 0.00 10.60 558.2
5 2 64.50 49.20 0.00 15.85 574.0
5 3 71.10 44.40 0.00 16.75 590.8
5 4 56.80 44.30 0.01 9.55 600.3
5 5 56.40 48.50 0.00 11.45 611.8
5 6 62.80 42.90 0.00 11.85 623.6
5 7 62.70 38.40 0.00 9.91 633.5
5 8 53.90 48.10 0.00 10.00 643.5
5 9 63.50 46.00 0.00 13.75 657.3
5 10 72.50 41.80 0.00 16.15 673.4
5 11 73.10 43.60 0.00 17.35 690.8
5 12 81.50 45.00 0.00 22.25 713.0
5 13 90.20 50.90 0.00 29.55 742.6
5 14 91.50 65.10 0.00 37.30 779.9
5 15 85.00 53.20 0.00 28.10 808.0
5 16 82.70 48.00 0.00 24.35 832.3
5 17 86.70 50.20 0.00 27.45 859.8 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 18 77.50 49.90 0.00 22.70 882.5
5 19 82.50 48.60 0.00 24.55 907.0
5 20 79.70 50.50 0.00 24.10 931.1
5 21 66.80 51.30 0.00 18.05 949.2
5 22 62.90 44.80 0.00 12.85 962.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 23 66.00 46.50 0.00 15.25 977.3
5 24 72.50 41.90 0.00 16.20 993.5
5 25 79.90 48.10 0.00 23.00 1016.5 Peak egg laying
5 26 83.10 49.10 0.00 25.10 1041.6
5 27 72.60 50.40 0.00 20.50 1062.1
5 28 74.40 44.70 0.00 18.55 1080.6
5 29 78.70 46.10 0.00 21.40 1102.0
5 30 66.50 43.90 0.00 14.20 1116.2
5 31 65.50 43.50 0.00 13.50 1129.7
6 1 70.20 40.00 0.00 14.18 1143.9
6 2 76.20 40.10 0.00 17.21 1161.1
6 3 78.20 39.50 0.00 17.98 1179.1
6 4 76.00 45.80 0.00 19.90 1199.0
6 5 82.60 48.90 0.00 24.75 1223.7
6 6 88.60 50.10 0.00 28.35 1252.1
6 7 78.40 54.00 0.00 25.20 1277.3 Peak egg hatch
6 8 72.10 49.00 0.00 19.55 1296.8
6 9 69.20 54.00 0.00 20.60 1317.4
6 10 76.20 53.10 0.00 23.65 1341.1
6 11 81.70 49.30 0.00 24.50 1365.6
6 12 86.80 49.50 0.00 27.15 1392.7
6 13 75.90 49.90 0.00 21.90 1414.6
6 14 68.90 47.30 0.00 17.10 1431.7
6 15 74.50 41.50 0.00 17.00 1448.7
6 16 82.70 48.90 0.00 24.80 1473.5
6 17 70.10 54.10 0.00 21.10 1494.6
6 18 60.50 50.00 0.09 14.25 1508.9
6 19 63.80 47.00 0.00 14.40 1523.3
6 20 67.70 45.60 0.00 15.65 1538.9
6 21 77.20 44.90 0.00 20.05 1559.0
6 22 86.50 54.70 0.00 29.60 1588.6
6 23 75.50 52.00 0.00 22.75 1611.3
6 24 81.50 45.70 0.00 22.60 1633.9
6 25 82.50 46.10 0.00 23.30 1657.2
6 26 81.50 47.20 0.00 23.35 1680.6
6 27 82.30 48.50 0.00 24.40 1705.0
6 28 85.70 49.80 0.00 26.75 1731.7
6 29 88.40 52.30 0.00 29.35 1761.1
6 30 88.10 52.70 0.00 29.40 1790.5
7 1 84.70 51.60 0.00 27.15 1817.6
7 2 85.80 55.30 0.00 29.55 1847.2
7 3 88.50 51.40 0.00 28.95 1876.1
7 4 94.10 56.00 0.00 34.05 1910.2
7 5 95.30 60.60 0.00 36.95 1947.1
7 6 87.40 51.40 0.00 28.40 1975.5
7 7 79.20 48.50 0.00 22.85 1998.4
7 8 77.00 48.60 0.00 21.80 2020.2
7 9 81.50 45.70 0.00 22.60 2042.8
7 10 74.40 50.00 0.00 21.20 2064.0
7 11 82.90 48.40 0.00 24.65 2088.6 Peak in density large larvae
7 12 84.10 52.00 0.00 27.05 2115.7
7 13 86.30 52.60 0.00 28.45 2144.1
7 14 91.90 58.40 0.00 34.15 2178.3
7 15 95.90 59.90 0.00 36.90 2215.2
7 16 91.70 53.40 0.00 31.55 2246.7
7 17 78.60 51.50 0.00 24.05 2270.8
7 18 87.70 57.70 0.00 31.70 2302.5
7 19 90.10 53.50 0.00 30.80 2333.3
7 20 83.00 53.90 0.00 27.45 2360.7
7 21 87.50 52.70 0.00 29.10 2389.8
7 22 90.50 52.50 0.00 30.50 2420.3
7 23 86.80 53.50 0.00 29.15 2449.5
7 24 79.80 49.50 0.00 23.65 2473.1
7 25 80.00 60.70 0.00 29.35 2502.5
7 26 83.80 58.50 0.00 30.15 2532.6
7 27 82.40 49.50 0.00 24.95 2557.6
7 28 87.00 53.60 0.00 29.30 2586.9 Hx Hn
7 29 81.40 50.50 0.00 24.95 2611.8
7 30 80.70 50.80 0.00 24.75 2636.6
7 31 83.40 47.90 0.00 24.65 2661.2
8 1 87.20 53.70 0.00 29.45 2690.7
8 2 87.70 52.30 0.00 29.00 2719.7
8 3 87.10 50.70 0.00 27.90 2747.6
8 4 87.60 56.10 0.00 30.85 2778.4
8 5 85.30 56.10 0.00 29.70 2808.1
8 6 84.90 60.70 0.00 31.80 2839.9
8 7 85.00 62.00 0.00 32.50 2872.4
8 8 86.80 54.10 0.00 29.45 2901.9
8 9 82.60 54.30 0.00 27.45 2929.3
8 10 80.70 61.00 0.00 29.85 2959.2
8 11 85.70 57.10 0.00 30.40 2989.6
8 12 89.40 58.10 0.00 32.75 3022.3
8 13 99.60 63.30 0.00 40.45 3062.8
8 14 102.40 70.90 0.00 45.65 3108.4
8 15 101.00 65.00 0.00 42.00 3150.4
8 16 102.00 61.10 0.00 40.55 3191.0
8 17 92.00 65.80 0.00 37.90 3228.9
8 18 82.90 55.70 0.00 28.30 3257.2
8 19 86.60 49.80 0.00 27.20 3284.4
8 20 85.60 51.70 0.00 27.65 3312.0
8 21 81.40 50.00 0.00 24.70 3336.7
8 22 75.80 46.60 0.00 20.20 3356.9
8 23 78.60 46.60 0.00 21.60 3378.5
8 24 87.30 53.70 0.00 29.50 3408.0
8 25 88.80 62.60 0.12 34.70 3442.7
8 26 85.50 53.60 0.00 28.55 3471.3
8 27 78.30 52.70 0.00 24.50 3495.8
8 28 69.10 56.00 0.00 21.55 3517.3
8 29 73.40 61.30 0.00 26.35 3543.7
8 30 79.30 59.30 0.00 28.30 3572.0
8 31 63.40 56.80 0.76 19.10 3591.1
9 1 78.60 60.80 0.02 28.70 3619.8
9 2 84.70 57.40 0.01 30.05 3649.8
9 3 74.40 56.10 0.00 24.25 3674.1
9 4 67.30 53.50 0.00 19.40 3693.5
9 5 73.50 49.90 0.00 20.70 3714.2
9 6 78.10 45.80 0.00 20.95 3735.1
9 7 75.70 55.40 0.00 24.55 3759.7
9 8 78.70 49.30 0.00 23.00 3782.7
9 9 85.90 49.10 0.00 26.50 3809.2
9 10 83.00 49.60 0.00 25.30 3834.5
9 11 74.30 45.50 0.00 18.90 3853.4 Vx Vn
9 12 79.30 50.40 0.00 23.85 3877.2 Vn
9 13 79.70 56.40 0.00 27.05 3904.3
9 14 85.70 53.50 0.00 28.60 3932.9
9 15 91.00 48.30 0.00 28.65 3961.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 CRVO CORVALLIS OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-17-23 | 860 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-22-23 | 962 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-25-23 | 1016 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-7-23 | 1277 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-11-23 | 2089 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3196932)
