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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 44.30 34.70 0.00 0.85 0.9 * START *
1 2 44.70 36.00 0.06 1.08 1.9
1 3 45.30 35.00 0.19 1.24 3.2
1 4 46.70 38.80 0.28 2.26 5.4
1 5 58.10 39.70 0.04 8.05 13.5
1 6 53.10 39.10 0.10 5.40 18.9
1 7 51.70 43.20 0.24 6.45 25.3
1 8 50.60 40.10 0.16 4.46 29.8
1 9 52.70 40.80 0.25 5.76 35.5
1 10 49.00 37.10 0.08 3.03 38.6
1 11 47.60 36.80 0.34 2.36 40.9
1 12 54.40 44.30 0.20 8.35 49.3
1 13 52.80 47.80 0.20 9.30 58.6
1 14 54.00 43.60 0.06 7.80 66.4
1 15 51.20 43.70 0.22 6.45 72.8
1 16 48.10 34.50 0.06 2.32 75.2
1 17 48.30 40.10 0.03 3.33 78.5
1 18 47.30 38.30 0.23 2.45 80.9
1 19 46.30 34.50 0.01 1.59 82.5
1 20 38.50 34.20 0.00 0.00 82.5
1 21 45.60 33.80 0.04 1.27 83.8
1 22 44.00 30.10 0.02 0.61 84.4
1 23 47.80 32.70 0.00 2.04 86.4
1 24 37.30 30.60 0.01 0.00 86.4
1 25 42.90 33.30 0.01 0.37 86.8
1 26 42.40 40.00 0.00 0.49 87.3
1 27 51.20 38.40 0.04 4.31 91.6
1 28 47.20 36.90 0.31 2.20 93.8
1 29 39.30 28.60 0.00 0.00 93.8
1 30 39.30 24.30 0.00 0.00 93.8
1 31 41.80 23.00 0.00 0.07 93.9
2 1 48.30 24.90 0.00 1.79 95.7
2 2 44.00 24.80 0.00 0.51 96.2
2 3 52.40 30.20 0.10 3.68 99.9
2 4 51.00 41.20 0.01 5.10 105.0
2 5 50.30 39.60 0.20 4.17 109.1
2 6 49.90 38.00 0.00 3.61 112.7
2 7 51.50 39.70 0.18 4.79 117.5
2 8 45.60 34.10 0.01 1.29 118.8
2 9 56.80 31.40 0.02 5.71 124.5
2 10 53.60 43.40 0.02 7.50 132.0
2 11 48.50 33.20 0.00 2.36 134.4
2 12 43.40 29.80 0.01 0.44 134.8
2 13 46.00 38.00 0.14 1.81 136.6
2 14 43.40 29.00 0.38 0.42 137.1
2 15 44.60 25.70 0.00 0.68 137.7
2 16 44.60 27.40 0.00 0.71 138.4
2 17 54.20 31.50 0.00 4.59 143.0
2 18 50.90 33.90 0.00 3.44 146.5
2 19 54.40 33.90 0.00 4.99 151.5
2 20 52.90 39.40 0.00 5.39 156.9
2 21 47.60 35.50 0.30 2.21 159.1
2 22 40.20 33.50 0.19 0.00 159.1
2 23 41.40 23.60 0.09 0.03 159.1
2 24 36.50 22.70 0.00 0.00 159.1
2 25 45.20 22.10 0.00 0.77 159.9
2 26 45.80 32.80 0.48 1.29 161.2
2 27 46.70 33.00 0.21 1.64 162.8
2 28 41.40 32.40 0.38 0.04 162.8
3 1 46.90 26.90 0.00 1.40 164.2
3 2 47.30 35.90 0.15 2.12 166.4
3 3 45.60 32.70 0.05 1.21 167.6
3 4 43.20 35.60 0.21 0.52 168.1
3 5 43.80 31.60 0.18 0.58 168.7
3 6 49.80 37.20 0.05 3.42 172.1
3 7 49.20 32.20 0.10 2.56 174.6
3 8 45.50 29.60 0.13 1.05 175.7
3 9 47.50 37.70 0.42 2.44 178.1
3 10 47.30 35.40 0.15 2.07 180.2
3 11 53.50 34.90 0.02 4.74 184.9
3 12 55.50 32.80 0.22 5.33 190.3
3 13 51.00 37.50 1.09 4.03 194.3
3 14 50.50 32.80 0.01 3.15 197.4
3 15 52.90 37.60 0.00 4.95 202.4
3 16 58.90 33.60 0.00 7.00 209.4
3 17 59.60 29.90 0.00 6.75 216.2
3 18 62.20 34.20 0.00 8.66 224.8
3 19 54.00 42.80 0.10 7.40 232.2
3 20 49.60 37.60 0.10 3.39 235.6
3 21 61.80 36.30 0.00 8.92 244.5
3 22 61.50 39.20 0.00 9.57 254.1
3 23 46.60 37.70 0.24 2.04 256.1
3 24 46.20 32.40 0.60 1.41 257.5
3 25 48.70 34.40 0.17 2.56 260.1
3 26 47.20 30.60 0.00 1.68 261.8
3 27 44.50 29.60 0.10 0.74 262.5
3 28 47.80 39.00 0.13 2.81 265.3
3 29 56.40 38.10 0.00 6.75 272.1
3 30 52.50 35.90 0.00 4.44 276.5
3 31 48.20 39.50 0.08 3.12 279.6
4 1 48.30 37.00 0.00 2.70 282.3 Px Pn
4 2 45.90 36.20 0.46 1.57 283.9
4 3 48.40 34.10 0.14 2.40 286.3
4 4 49.50 36.50 0.07 3.17 289.5
4 5 50.50 34.20 0.10 3.30 292.8
4 6 54.70 45.60 0.44 9.15 301.9
4 7 56.10 46.70 0.41 10.40 312.3
4 8 59.70 43.60 0.00 10.65 323.0
4 9 55.60 49.10 0.40 11.35 334.3
4 10 52.80 41.20 0.95 6.00 340.3
4 11 51.10 39.00 0.07 4.40 344.7
4 12 48.40 35.80 0.16 2.59 347.3
4 13 53.80 33.30 0.00 4.64 352.0
4 14 59.40 34.50 0.00 7.40 359.4
4 15 58.90 36.80 0.00 7.64 367.0
4 16 51.20 42.70 0.15 5.95 373.0
4 17 48.30 38.90 0.21 3.03 376.0
4 18 47.90 36.30 0.17 2.43 378.4
4 19 49.30 38.30 0.16 3.38 381.8
4 20 48.10 35.60 0.51 2.43 384.2
4 21 54.10 47.10 0.01 9.60 393.8
4 22 68.00 51.10 0.18 18.55 412.4
4 23 56.20 47.10 0.01 10.65 423.0
4 24 56.90 42.30 0.06 8.60 431.6
4 25 65.20 38.00 0.00 11.03 442.7
4 26 74.10 43.70 0.00 17.90 460.6
4 27 75.20 51.30 0.00 22.25 482.8
4 28 87.90 54.90 0.00 30.40 513.2
4 29 79.10 46.90 0.00 22.00 535.2
4 30 63.00 43.70 0.00 12.35 547.6
5 1 59.30 43.90 0.00 10.60 558.2
5 2 64.50 49.20 0.00 15.85 574.0
5 3 71.10 44.40 0.00 16.75 590.8
5 4 56.80 44.30 0.01 9.55 600.3
5 5 56.40 48.50 0.00 11.45 611.8
5 6 62.80 42.90 0.00 11.85 623.6
5 7 62.70 38.40 0.00 9.91 633.5
5 8 53.90 48.10 0.00 10.00 643.5
5 9 63.50 46.00 0.00 13.75 657.3
5 10 72.50 41.80 0.00 16.15 673.4
5 11 73.10 43.60 0.00 17.35 690.8
5 12 81.50 45.00 0.00 22.25 713.0
5 13 90.20 50.90 0.00 29.55 742.6
5 14 91.50 65.10 0.00 37.30 779.9
5 15 85.00 53.20 0.00 28.10 808.0
5 16 82.70 48.00 0.00 24.35 832.3
5 17 86.70 50.20 0.00 27.45 859.8 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 18 77.50 49.90 0.00 22.70 882.5
5 19 82.50 48.60 0.00 24.55 907.0
5 20 79.70 50.50 0.00 24.10 931.1
5 21 66.80 51.30 0.00 18.05 949.2
5 22 62.90 44.80 0.00 12.85 962.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 23 66.00 46.50 0.00 15.25 977.3
5 24 72.50 41.90 0.00 16.20 993.5
5 25 79.90 48.10 0.00 23.00 1016.5 Peak egg laying
5 26 83.10 49.10 0.00 25.10 1041.6
5 27 72.60 50.40 0.00 20.50 1062.1
5 28 74.40 44.70 0.00 18.55 1080.6
5 29 78.70 46.10 0.00 21.40 1102.0
5 30 66.50 43.90 0.00 14.20 1116.2
5 31 65.50 43.50 0.00 13.50 1129.7
6 1 70.20 40.00 0.00 14.18 1143.9
6 2 76.20 40.10 0.00 17.21 1161.1
6 3 78.20 39.50 0.00 17.98 1179.1
6 4 76.00 45.80 0.00 19.90 1199.0
6 5 82.60 48.90 0.00 24.75 1223.7
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1224.
QA 99% ok
| |
| This year is about | versus | QA |
| 4 days ahead | 2022 | ok |
| 5 days behind | 2021 | ok |
| 2 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 6 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 1248.2 Mostly_Sunny
6 7 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 1278.7 Partly_Cloudy Peak egg hatch
6 8 83.00 52.00 0.00 26.50 1305.2 Partly_Cloudy_2%_precip
6 9 80.00 52.00 0.00 25.00 1330.2 Partly_Cloudy_2%_precip
6 10 76.00 53.00 0.00 23.50 1353.7 Partly_Cloudy_7%_precip
6 11 77.00 51.00 0.00 23.00 1376.7 Partly_Cloudy_9%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 74.40 49.00 0.03 20.70 1397.4 *hist_fcst*
6 13 73.10 49.70 0.14 20.40 1417.8 *hist_fcst*
6 14 68.30 48.60 0.08 17.45 1435.3 *hist_fcst*
6 15 70.60 46.80 0.05 17.70 1453.0 *hist_fcst*
6 16 71.10 48.50 0.05 18.80 1471.8 *hist_fcst*
6 17 73.40 48.90 0.04 20.15 1491.9 *hist_fcst*
6 18 76.50 49.20 0.01 21.85 1513.8 *hist_fcst*
6 19 75.60 48.60 0.02 21.10 1534.9 *hist_fcst*
6 20 77.40 49.10 0.02 22.25 1557.1 *hist_fcst*
6 21 76.70 50.30 0.04 22.50 1579.6 *hist_fcst*
6 22 77.60 49.50 0.00 22.55 1602.2 *hist_fcst*
6 23 79.00 49.90 0.04 23.45 1625.6 *hist_fcst*
6 24 78.30 52.10 0.04 24.20 1649.8 *hist_fcst*
6 25 79.80 52.50 0.01 25.15 1675.0 *hist_fcst*
6 26 79.10 53.00 0.09 25.05 1700.0 *hist_fcst*
6 27 80.80 54.70 0.06 26.75 1726.8 *hist_fcst*
6 28 80.70 53.50 0.06 26.10 1752.9 *hist_fcst*
6 29 80.00 51.80 0.01 24.90 1777.8 *hist_fcst*
6 30 81.10 52.50 0.00 25.80 1803.6 *hist_fcst*
7 1 80.60 54.10 0.03 26.35 1829.9 *hist_fcst*
7 2 80.90 54.50 0.00 26.70 1856.6 *hist_fcst*
7 3 81.20 52.70 0.01 25.95 1882.6 *hist_fcst*
7 4 80.20 50.30 0.00 24.25 1906.8 *hist_fcst*
7 5 80.70 50.60 0.00 24.65 1931.5 *hist_fcst*
7 6 82.70 50.10 0.00 25.40 1956.9 *hist_fcst*
7 7 81.40 51.20 0.00 25.30 1982.2 *hist_fcst*
7 8 80.30 52.60 0.01 25.45 2007.6 *hist_fcst*
7 9 83.50 51.80 0.01 26.65 2034.3 *hist_fcst*
7 10 81.10 52.40 0.07 25.75 2060.0 *hist_fcst*
7 11 80.80 53.50 0.01 26.15 2086.2 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 12 81.50 53.20 0.00 26.35 2112.5 *hist_fcst*
7 13 83.80 53.60 0.00 27.70 2140.2 *hist_fcst*
7 14 82.70 52.60 0.02 26.65 2166.9 *hist_fcst*
7 15 86.70 52.40 0.00 28.55 2195.4 *hist_fcst*
7 16 84.10 53.10 0.01 27.60 2223.0 *hist_fcst*
7 17 83.10 53.30 0.01 27.20 2250.2 *hist_fcst*
7 18 81.70 52.10 0.00 25.90 2276.1 *hist_fcst*
7 19 83.10 53.10 0.00 27.10 2303.2 *hist_fcst*
7 20 84.10 52.20 0.00 27.15 2330.4 *hist_fcst*
7 21 81.80 51.70 0.00 25.75 2356.1 *hist_fcst*
7 22 82.40 52.00 0.00 26.20 2382.3 *hist_fcst*
7 23 82.40 52.00 0.01 26.20 2408.5 *hist_fcst*
7 24 82.00 51.70 0.03 25.85 2434.4 *hist_fcst*
7 25 84.90 52.30 0.00 27.60 2462.0 *hist_fcst*
7 26 87.10 52.60 0.00 28.85 2490.8 *hist_fcst*
7 27 88.40 52.80 0.00 29.60 2520.4 *hist_fcst*
7 28 85.10 53.00 0.00 28.05 2548.5 *hist_fcst*
7 29 88.10 52.20 0.00 29.15 2577.6 *hist_fcst*
7 30 90.10 54.10 0.00 31.10 2608.7 *hist_fcst*
7 31 88.20 54.20 0.00 30.20 2638.9 *hist_fcst*
8 1 87.10 53.50 0.01 29.30 2668.2 *hist_fcst*
8 2 87.10 53.80 0.00 29.45 2697.7 *hist_fcst*
8 3 84.40 54.90 0.00 28.65 2726.3 *hist_fcst*
8 4 87.60 54.90 0.00 30.25 2756.6 *hist_fcst*
8 5 91.20 53.30 0.00 31.25 2787.8 *hist_fcst*
8 6 86.00 52.00 0.00 28.00 2815.8 *hist_fcst*
8 7 84.30 52.20 0.01 27.25 2843.1 *hist_fcst*
8 8 82.70 52.20 0.00 26.45 2869.5 *hist_fcst*
8 9 80.90 52.60 0.01 25.75 2895.3 *hist_fcst*
8 10 84.90 54.20 0.00 28.55 2923.8 *hist_fcst*
8 11 85.70 55.20 0.00 29.45 2953.3 *hist_fcst*
8 12 86.30 55.00 0.00 29.65 2982.9 *hist_fcst*
8 13 85.20 53.60 0.02 28.40 3011.3 *hist_fcst*
8 14 86.50 53.10 0.01 28.80 3040.1 *hist_fcst*
8 15 85.70 54.50 0.01 29.10 3069.2 *hist_fcst*
8 16 86.10 54.80 0.00 29.45 3098.7 *hist_fcst*
8 17 86.20 54.00 0.00 29.10 3127.8 *hist_fcst*
8 18 85.20 52.90 0.00 28.05 3155.8 *hist_fcst*
8 19 87.80 52.80 0.00 29.30 3185.1 *hist_fcst*
8 20 87.10 53.00 0.00 29.05 3214.2 *hist_fcst*
8 21 83.30 51.70 0.00 26.50 3240.7 *hist_fcst*
8 22 81.90 52.60 0.01 26.25 3266.9 *hist_fcst*
8 23 80.90 51.30 0.00 25.10 3292.0 *hist_fcst*
8 24 80.30 50.00 0.00 24.15 3316.2 *hist_fcst*
8 25 81.40 49.20 0.00 24.30 3340.5 *hist_fcst*
8 26 81.80 51.30 0.01 25.55 3366.0 *hist_fcst*
8 27 84.40 52.00 0.00 27.20 3393.2 *hist_fcst*
8 28 85.40 52.70 0.00 28.05 3421.3 *hist_fcst*
8 29 86.50 53.40 0.02 28.95 3450.2 *hist_fcst*
8 30 81.40 52.50 0.03 25.95 3476.2 *hist_fcst*
8 31 76.10 50.50 0.01 22.30 3498.5 *hist_fcst*
9 1 78.50 50.70 0.00 23.60 3522.1 *hist_fcst*
9 2 80.90 51.20 0.00 25.05 3547.1 *hist_fcst*
9 3 82.10 50.40 0.01 25.25 3572.4 *hist_fcst*
9 4 81.20 49.40 0.01 24.30 3596.7 *hist_fcst*
9 5 80.90 50.20 0.00 24.55 3621.2 *hist_fcst*
9 6 82.50 52.10 0.29 26.30 3647.5 *hist_fcst*
9 7 81.80 51.70 0.02 25.75 3673.3 *hist_fcst*
9 8 82.00 52.30 0.01 26.15 3699.4 *hist_fcst*
9 9 78.70 53.00 0.04 24.85 3724.3 *hist_fcst*
9 10 79.40 52.00 0.04 24.70 3749.0 *hist_fcst*
9 11 78.10 50.80 0.02 23.45 3772.4 *hist_fcst*
9 12 79.60 49.90 0.04 23.75 3796.2 *hist_fcst*
9 13 79.60 48.80 0.05 23.20 3819.4 *hist_fcst*
9 14 77.70 48.00 0.01 21.85 3841.2 *hist_fcst*
9 15 78.20 47.00 0.00 21.60 3862.8 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 CRVO CORVALLIS OR DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1224. QA 99% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | | | This year is about | versus | QA | | 4 days ahead | 2022 | ok | | 5 days behind | 2021 | ok | | 2 days ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
| Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-17-23 | 860 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-22-23 | 962 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-25-23 | 1016 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-7-23 | 1279 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-11-23 | 2086 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?35862)
