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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 37.60 25.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 48.90 30.50 0.03 2.31 2.3
1 3 47.60 35.50 2.14 2.21 4.5
1 4 44.70 35.00 0.45 1.01 5.5
1 5 50.60 41.80 0.55 5.20 10.7
1 6 55.40 50.20 0.06 11.80 22.5
1 7 50.80 40.00 0.13 4.53 27.1
1 8 50.90 36.00 0.02 3.73 30.8
1 9 42.50 30.60 0.01 0.23 31.0
1 10 44.70 31.00 0.02 0.84 31.9
1 11 53.80 40.80 0.02 6.31 38.2
1 12 56.70 38.10 0.00 6.89 45.1
1 13 50.80 40.90 0.24 4.85 49.9
1 14 50.40 37.20 0.01 3.69 53.6
1 15 41.00 36.50 0.00 0.00 53.6
1 16 38.60 35.50 0.01 0.00 53.6
1 17 41.40 35.90 0.00 0.05 53.7
1 18 51.70 37.80 0.05 4.42 58.1
1 19 53.00 45.80 0.13 8.40 66.5
1 20 56.70 36.50 0.05 6.52 73.0
1 21 46.50 33.30 0.01 1.58 74.6
1 22 44.80 33.70 0.00 0.98 75.6
1 23 36.90 27.90 0.01 0.00 75.6
1 24 37.60 30.80 0.01 0.00 75.6
1 25 48.30 28.20 0.00 1.94 77.5
1 26 44.60 24.90 0.01 0.67 78.2
1 27 48.80 23.50 0.00 1.90 80.1
1 28 47.10 23.60 0.00 1.36 81.4
1 29 49.20 23.90 0.01 2.05 83.5
1 30 51.40 27.20 0.21 3.04 86.5
1 31 46.90 29.70 0.04 1.52 88.0
2 1 45.10 28.40 0.06 0.89 88.9
2 2 45.90 39.00 0.03 1.92 90.8
2 3 52.60 33.60 0.00 4.15 95.0
2 4 49.30 31.70 0.01 2.56 97.5
2 5 49.00 38.60 0.00 3.30 100.8
2 6 50.50 28.90 0.01 2.81 103.7
2 7 55.70 30.10 0.00 5.07 108.7
2 8 50.20 33.40 0.01 3.09 111.8
2 9 59.20 34.90 0.01 7.38 119.2
2 10 48.00 36.10 0.00 2.45 121.6
2 11 60.10 44.50 0.00 11.30 132.9
2 12 61.30 34.90 0.00 8.38 141.3
2 13 58.70 28.40 0.00 6.17 147.5
2 14 49.40 34.80 0.13 2.90 150.4
2 15 48.10 35.50 0.00 2.42 152.8
2 16 52.00 36.70 0.00 4.35 157.2
2 17 48.90 31.10 0.00 2.35 159.5
2 18 55.90 31.60 0.01 5.34 164.8
2 19 49.80 34.20 0.01 3.00 167.9
2 20 47.70 38.30 0.03 2.63 170.5
2 21 45.50 35.10 0.39 1.32 171.8
2 22 41.90 26.40 0.01 0.09 171.9
2 23 37.60 23.30 0.00 0.00 171.9
2 24 41.90 22.70 0.00 0.08 172.0
2 25 48.10 24.90 0.00 1.72 173.7
2 26 43.90 27.20 0.14 0.52 174.2
2 27 56.60 42.20 0.25 8.40 182.6
2 28 59.50 53.70 0.88 15.60 198.2
3 1 56.80 51.70 0.45 13.25 211.5
3 2 52.50 47.30 0.80 8.90 220.4
3 3 52.40 36.70 0.02 4.53 224.9
3 4 49.30 35.90 0.01 2.99 227.9
3 5 54.30 30.30 0.00 4.49 232.4
3 6 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 235.2
3 7 59.50 30.10 0.00 6.74 241.9
3 8 52.30 33.80 0.01 4.04 246.0
3 9 51.20 33.90 0.27 3.57 249.5
3 10 50.80 28.80 0.00 2.92 252.4
3 11 61.90 27.00 0.00 7.39 259.8
3 12 55.80 29.60 0.37 5.05 264.9
3 13 51.20 41.60 0.58 5.40 270.3
3 14 54.90 44.50 0.30 8.70 279.0
3 15 57.50 43.10 0.09 9.30 288.3
3 16 58.00 35.90 0.00 7.02 295.3
3 17 52.80 36.30 0.05 4.65 300.0
3 18 58.00 45.40 0.01 10.70 310.7
3 19 53.90 36.10 0.09 5.12 315.8
3 20 49.10 36.70 0.03 3.02 318.8
3 21 52.20 43.10 0.24 6.65 325.4
3 22 65.80 49.60 0.01 16.70 342.1
3 23 60.20 46.00 0.00 12.10 354.2
3 24 57.70 39.80 0.00 7.88 362.1
3 25 61.00 41.30 0.00 10.15 372.3
3 26 67.00 49.00 0.00 17.00 389.3
3 27 66.40 46.10 0.00 15.25 404.5
3 28 56.80 49.00 0.04 11.90 416.4
3 29 60.90 43.30 0.00 11.10 427.5
3 30 57.70 39.70 0.00 7.85 435.4
3 31 55.50 34.60 0.00 5.60 441.0
4 1 59.80 34.10 0.09 7.51 448.5
4 2 58.70 40.40 0.01 8.60 457.1
4 3 56.80 37.70 0.04 6.84 463.9
4 4 52.90 41.30 0.74 6.10 470.0
4 5 56.00 38.10 0.07 6.55 476.6
4 6 62.20 35.40 0.01 8.91 485.5
4 7 73.20 38.50 0.00 15.14 500.6
4 8 56.60 38.10 0.00 6.85 507.5
4 9 53.30 32.60 0.04 4.33 511.8
4 10 45.10 41.10 0.66 2.10 513.9
4 11 50.00 36.50 0.14 3.39 517.3
4 12 46.80 34.10 0.72 1.75 519.1
4 13 46.30 33.70 0.39 1.53 520.6
4 14 48.20 30.80 0.06 2.06 522.6
4 15 53.60 29.20 0.00 4.09 526.7
4 16 51.20 34.80 0.02 3.69 530.4
4 17 54.50 30.60 0.00 4.61 535.0
4 18 51.80 42.40 0.27 6.10 541.1
4 19 53.20 40.40 0.53 5.86 547.0
4 20 52.30 34.30 0.56 4.11 551.1
4 21 56.80 42.00 0.08 8.40 559.5
4 22 59.30 38.40 0.04 8.24 567.7
4 23 64.30 34.10 0.00 9.63 577.4
4 24 69.50 35.00 0.00 12.33 589.7
4 25 57.30 46.10 0.02 10.70 600.4
4 26 56.50 44.20 0.05 9.35 609.8
4 27 55.80 41.90 0.09 7.85 617.6
4 28 56.80 40.10 0.01 7.54 625.1
4 29 60.40 44.90 0.37 11.65 636.8
4 30 57.00 48.60 0.09 11.80 648.6
5 1 62.70 45.30 0.01 13.00 661.6
5 2 54.40 45.30 0.39 8.85 670.4
5 3 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 683.0
5 4 71.60 43.80 0.00 16.70 699.7
5 5 59.10 45.20 0.72 11.15 710.9
5 6 60.40 49.30 0.47 13.85 724.7
5 7 53.20 43.00 0.08 7.10 731.8
5 8 49.80 39.40 0.27 3.87 735.7
5 9 52.90 36.30 0.02 4.69 740.4
5 10 59.20 40.00 0.00 8.70 749.1
5 11 61.30 35.50 0.00 8.50 757.6
5 12 51.00 41.20 0.33 5.10 762.7
5 13 55.50 34.80 0.65 5.64 768.3
5 14 67.80 52.90 0.25 19.35 787.7
5 15 69.50 52.50 0.00 20.00 807.7
5 16 63.10 45.40 0.00 13.25 820.9
5 17 65.50 40.60 0.00 12.07 833.0
5 18 60.20 45.40 0.22 11.80 844.8
5 19 58.00 41.20 0.01 8.60 853.4 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 20 60.40 33.80 0.00 7.74 861.2
5 21 69.80 41.00 0.00 14.40 875.6
5 22 72.60 40.20 0.00 15.45 891.0
5 23 72.70 49.50 0.00 20.10 911.1
5 24 74.80 45.00 0.00 18.90 930.0
5 25 74.60 49.90 0.00 21.25 951.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 26 73.60 52.90 0.03 22.25 973.5
5 27 62.00 50.10 0.00 15.05 988.6
5 28 61.40 49.20 0.27 14.30 1002.9 Peak egg laying
5 29 57.70 48.50 0.14 12.10 1015.0
5 30 61.70 46.90 0.06 13.30 1028.3
5 31 72.90 42.50 0.01 16.70 1045.0
6 1 75.90 48.50 0.00 21.20 1066.2
6 2 78.30 48.30 0.00 22.30 1088.5
6 3 63.30 52.60 0.14 16.95 1105.4
6 4 62.20 52.10 0.57 16.15 1121.6
6 5 68.00 54.80 0.15 20.40 1142.0
6 6 63.50 51.60 0.22 16.55 1158.5
6 7 63.50 45.80 0.00 13.65 1172.2 Px Pn
6 8 72.40 53.30 0.00 21.85 1194.0
6 9 76.50 51.60 0.15 23.05 1217.1
6 10 68.80 57.40 0.35 22.10 1239.2
6 11 66.50 53.00 0.07 18.75 1257.9
6 12 57.10 50.40 0.18 12.75 1270.7 Peak egg hatch
6 13 59.60 46.70 0.01 12.15 1282.8
6 14 65.80 49.40 0.02 16.60 1299.4
6 15 68.20 47.30 0.00 16.75 1316.2
6 16 67.00 53.00 0.00 19.00 1335.2
6 17 61.20 49.00 0.34 14.10 1349.3
6 18 65.70 45.70 0.00 14.70 1364.0
6 19 63.90 51.00 0.00 16.45 1380.4
6 20 70.20 49.70 0.00 18.95 1399.4
6 21 80.00 50.40 0.02 24.20 1423.6
6 22 80.10 55.60 0.00 26.85 1450.4
6 23 74.10 46.80 0.00 19.45 1469.9
6 24 81.00 49.10 0.00 24.05 1493.9
6 25 90.20 64.90 0.00 36.55 1530.5
6 26 93.00 66.60 0.00 38.80 1569.3
6 27 89.60 54.30 0.00 30.95 1600.2
6 28 72.30 52.60 0.00 21.45 1621.7
6 29 75.90 50.40 0.00 22.15 1643.8
6 30 78.30 48.40 0.00 22.35 1666.2
7 1 77.00 50.50 0.00 22.75 1688.9
7 2 71.80 50.20 0.00 20.00 1708.9
7 3 71.40 55.00 0.01 22.20 1731.1
7 4 76.90 48.00 0.00 21.45 1752.6
7 5 71.30 57.90 0.10 23.60 1776.2
7 6 73.90 58.90 0.03 25.40 1801.6
7 7 75.00 54.80 0.00 23.90 1825.5
7 8 81.00 50.80 0.00 24.90 1850.4
7 9 80.60 52.60 0.00 25.60 1876.0
7 10 80.20 47.90 0.00 23.05 1899.0
7 11 94.30 63.20 0.00 37.75 1936.8
7 12 92.10 58.60 0.00 34.35 1971.1
7 13 79.90 51.50 0.00 24.70 1995.8
7 14 84.70 50.40 0.00 26.55 2022.4
7 15 81.20 47.10 0.00 23.15 2045.5
7 16 76.60 54.10 0.00 24.35 2069.9
7 17 76.10 54.80 0.00 24.45 2094.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 18 79.80 49.60 0.00 23.70 2118.0
7 19 89.50 55.50 0.00 31.50 2149.5
7 20 91.10 53.90 0.00 31.50 2181.0
7 21 81.20 52.60 0.00 25.90 2206.9
7 22 77.70 52.80 0.00 24.25 2231.2
7 23 78.20 53.20 0.00 24.70 2255.9
7 24 90.70 53.00 0.00 30.85 2286.7
7 25 97.50 62.30 0.00 38.90 2325.6
7 26 98.80 57.80 0.00 37.30 2362.9
7 27 94.90 56.30 0.00 34.60 2397.5
7 28 96.30 57.40 0.00 35.85 2433.4
7 29 99.00 61.00 0.00 39.00 2472.4
7 30 95.50 63.10 0.00 38.30 2510.7 Px
7 31 85.70 53.70 0.00 28.70 2539.4 Px Pn
8 1 83.10 61.10 0.00 31.10 2570.5
8 2 89.60 55.00 0.00 31.30 2601.8
8 3 86.20 54.50 0.00 29.35 2631.1
8 4 78.20 47.30 0.00 21.75 2652.9
8 5 83.50 52.40 0.00 26.95 2679.8
8 6 90.20 52.50 0.00 30.35 2710.2
8 7 96.50 54.20 0.00 34.35 2744.5
8 8 81.40 51.60 0.00 25.50 2770.0
8 9 85.00 54.70 0.00 28.85 2798.9
8 10 77.10 59.90 0.00 27.50 2826.4
8 11 86.10 49.90 0.00 27.00 2853.4
8 12 76.20 49.60 0.00 21.90 2875.3
8 13 79.80 51.60 0.00 24.70 2900.0
8 14 85.10 53.30 0.00 28.20 2928.2
8 15 88.40 51.30 0.00 28.85 2957.0
8 16 90.70 52.90 0.00 30.80 2987.8
8 17 94.10 61.70 0.00 36.90 3024.7
8 18 89.90 63.50 0.00 35.70 3060.4
8 19 80.60 59.40 0.00 29.00 3089.4
8 20 81.70 57.10 0.00 28.40 3117.8
8 21 89.60 52.60 0.00 30.10 3147.9
8 22 87.10 54.50 0.00 29.80 3177.7
8 23 87.40 54.60 0.00 30.00 3207.7
8 24 89.20 55.00 0.00 31.10 3238.8
8 25 91.90 56.50 0.00 33.20 3272.0
8 26 83.20 54.20 0.00 27.70 3299.7
8 27 72.10 57.90 0.00 24.00 3323.7
8 28 80.50 51.00 0.00 24.75 3348.5
8 29 88.90 55.60 0.00 31.25 3379.7
8 30 95.00 54.70 0.00 33.85 3413.6
8 31 90.10 54.80 0.00 31.45 3445.0
9 1 89.90 48.00 0.00 27.95 3473.0
9 2 86.70 51.90 0.00 28.30 3501.3
9 3 77.70 59.00 0.00 27.35 3528.6
9 4 85.40 49.20 0.00 26.30 3554.9
9 5 81.60 57.20 0.00 28.40 3583.3
9 6 88.60 53.30 0.00 29.95 3613.3
9 7 87.10 53.80 0.00 29.45 3642.7
9 8 81.00 45.60 0.00 22.30 3665.0
9 9 91.60 60.40 0.00 35.00 3700.0
9 10 89.30 60.00 0.00 33.65 3733.7
9 11 80.40 56.40 0.00 27.40 3761.1
9 12 75.80 58.30 0.01 26.05 3787.1
9 13 72.30 57.00 0.00 23.65 3810.8
9 14 72.50 57.50 0.00 24.00 3834.8
9 15 72.30 54.70 0.00 22.50 3857.3
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 CRVO CORVALLIS OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-19-22 | 853 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-25-22 | 951 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-28-22 | 1003 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-12-22 | 1271 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-17-22 | 2094 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?38320)
