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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 53.10 46.30 0.27 8.70 8.7 * START *
1 2 50.20 46.50 0.76 7.35 16.1
1 3 51.30 41.80 0.73 5.55 21.6
1 4 53.00 42.00 0.71 6.50 28.1
1 5 53.20 40.50 0.00 5.89 34.0
1 6 52.80 44.80 0.80 7.80 41.8
1 7 52.30 37.70 0.01 4.68 46.5
1 8 53.60 34.30 0.41 4.69 51.2
1 9 39.20 33.30 0.01 0.00 51.2
1 10 50.50 37.40 0.18 3.78 54.9
1 11 50.60 38.10 0.18 3.96 58.9
1 12 58.30 51.20 1.43 13.75 72.6
1 13 59.80 43.80 0.14 10.80 83.4
1 14 54.80 36.50 0.00 5.62 89.1
1 15 51.40 44.50 0.10 6.95 96.0
1 16 47.80 44.60 0.00 5.20 101.2
1 17 53.60 40.70 0.01 6.17 107.4
1 18 47.00 36.80 0.00 2.10 109.5
1 19 51.40 34.00 0.01 3.67 113.2
1 20 45.70 28.90 0.00 1.09 114.2
1 21 47.00 39.40 0.02 2.52 116.8
1 22 48.40 37.60 0.01 2.84 119.6
1 23 46.70 28.20 0.00 1.39 121.0
1 24 39.50 34.70 0.36 0.00 121.0
1 25 43.40 30.90 0.03 0.46 121.4
1 26 36.10 31.70 0.37 0.00 121.4
1 27 42.80 31.10 0.60 0.30 121.8
1 28 47.10 38.50 0.09 2.39 124.1
1 29 46.70 38.90 0.16 2.28 126.4
1 30 50.70 41.00 0.19 4.85 131.3
1 31 50.80 45.90 0.38 7.35 138.6
2 1 48.90 45.50 0.71 6.20 144.8
2 2 49.70 41.30 0.43 4.50 149.3
2 3 48.60 35.30 0.69 2.61 151.9
2 4 48.00 33.60 0.00 2.19 154.1
2 5 51.10 36.80 0.02 3.95 158.1
2 6 48.50 31.50 0.09 2.22 160.3
2 7 49.00 33.90 0.01 2.63 162.9
2 8 46.20 34.00 0.00 1.51 164.4
2 9 46.20 30.50 0.00 1.32 165.8
2 10 45.00 26.60 0.02 0.81 166.6
2 11 39.60 31.10 0.36 0.00 166.6
2 12 31.80 29.50 0.00 0.00 166.6
2 13 50.50 31.40 0.33 3.01 169.6
2 14 48.50 37.80 0.26 2.92 172.5
2 15 52.10 45.00 0.24 7.55 180.1
2 16 50.10 41.60 0.01 4.85 184.9
2 17 49.80 32.60 0.00 2.84 187.7
2 18 47.70 38.00 0.41 2.58 190.3
2 19 49.60 41.80 0.50 4.70 195.0
2 20 51.00 38.40 0.16 4.21 199.2
2 21 50.20 43.20 0.01 5.70 204.9
2 22 53.60 44.40 0.22 8.00 212.9
2 23 49.30 34.00 0.01 2.77 215.7
2 24 48.30 31.00 0.00 2.11 217.8
2 25 49.90 34.00 0.21 3.02 220.8
2 26 48.00 40.50 0.28 3.31 224.1
2 27 49.30 39.60 0.03 3.68 227.8
2 28 56.70 34.20 0.00 6.09 233.9
3 1 60.00 35.80 0.00 7.95 241.9
3 2 55.40 34.20 0.00 5.49 247.4
3 3 60.70 32.30 0.00 7.61 255.0 Px
3 4 56.00 39.40 0.00 6.91 261.9 Px Pn
3 5 49.20 38.80 0.38 3.44 265.3
3 6 51.80 39.50 0.05 4.87 270.2
3 7 51.00 38.50 0.09 4.23 274.4
3 8 50.20 35.30 0.05 3.31 277.7
3 9 53.40 35.90 0.38 4.86 282.6
3 10 53.20 33.10 0.02 4.35 286.9
3 11 56.40 30.00 0.01 5.36 292.3
3 12 59.50 30.40 0.00 6.78 299.1
3 13 62.30 29.50 0.00 7.90 307.0
3 14 51.10 39.00 0.18 4.40 311.4
3 15 47.80 29.70 0.06 1.85 313.2
3 16 51.80 27.20 0.01 3.19 316.4
3 17 61.20 29.40 0.00 7.40 323.8
3 18 53.70 37.60 0.16 5.33 329.2
3 19 51.70 43.00 0.23 6.35 335.5
3 20 52.50 40.00 0.13 5.37 340.9
3 21 49.30 37.00 0.05 3.15 344.0
3 22 52.20 35.90 0.18 4.30 348.3
3 23 55.00 30.40 0.00 4.80 353.1
3 24 49.10 37.60 0.05 3.16 356.3
3 25 52.00 35.10 0.15 4.09 360.4
3 26 57.50 29.70 0.00 5.80 366.2
3 27 64.60 35.90 0.00 10.18 376.4
3 28 53.60 36.00 0.11 4.97 381.3
3 29 51.30 31.90 0.08 3.39 384.7
3 30 54.30 27.70 0.00 4.23 389.0
3 31 64.80 34.80 0.00 10.02 399.0
4 1 70.20 35.50 0.00 12.79 411.8
4 2 61.50 35.50 0.00 8.60 420.4
4 3 65.20 36.70 0.00 10.67 431.0
4 4 58.00 39.30 0.00 7.87 438.9
4 5 57.90 28.40 0.00 5.82 444.7
4 6 63.50 33.80 0.00 9.19 453.9
4 7 52.10 33.40 0.00 3.90 457.8
4 8 55.60 38.00 0.02 6.33 464.2
4 9 58.80 30.00 0.00 6.41 470.6
4 10 51.50 34.40 0.11 3.77 474.3
4 11 56.90 31.00 0.00 5.70 480.0
4 12 63.80 41.50 0.00 11.65 491.7
4 13 63.40 44.90 0.00 13.15 504.8
4 14 65.70 44.20 0.00 13.95 518.8
4 15 72.00 33.90 0.00 13.28 532.1
4 16 78.50 43.10 0.00 19.80 551.9
4 17 80.00 38.90 0.00 18.65 570.5
4 18 81.40 39.70 0.00 19.65 590.2
4 19 72.60 37.50 0.00 14.52 604.7
4 20 71.60 45.40 0.01 17.50 622.2
4 21 73.60 43.30 0.00 17.45 639.6
4 22 64.30 37.20 0.00 10.36 650.0
4 23 59.70 36.80 0.00 8.03 658.0
4 24 53.60 46.00 0.22 8.80 666.8
4 25 58.50 42.50 0.05 9.50 676.3
4 26 60.10 41.20 0.01 9.65 686.0
4 27 67.00 35.50 0.01 11.24 697.2
4 28 74.00 36.20 0.00 14.84 712.1
4 29 77.50 42.00 0.00 18.75 730.8
4 30 71.70 43.00 0.12 16.35 747.2
5 1 57.80 50.20 0.29 13.00 760.2
5 2 64.50 45.20 0.01 13.85 774.0
5 3 66.00 41.60 0.00 12.80 786.8
5 4 68.20 49.50 0.01 17.85 804.7
5 5 75.00 46.00 0.00 19.50 824.2
5 6 61.60 44.70 0.06 12.15 836.3
5 7 61.10 38.70 0.04 9.22 845.5
5 8 60.70 32.70 0.01 7.68 853.2 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 9 63.90 47.00 0.00 14.45 867.7
5 10 68.60 43.10 0.00 14.85 882.5
5 11 73.10 44.00 0.00 17.55 900.1
5 12 77.70 43.30 0.00 19.50 919.6
5 13 77.90 46.90 0.00 21.40 941.0
5 14 79.40 49.90 0.00 23.65 964.6 Peak female adult emergence
5 15 78.40 41.30 0.00 18.85 983.5
5 16 80.70 42.60 0.00 20.65 1004.1 Peak egg laying
5 17 67.80 41.70 0.00 13.75 1017.9
5 18 63.00 44.40 0.00 12.70 1030.6
5 19 55.50 37.70 0.05 6.21 1036.8
5 20 59.40 33.30 0.00 7.18 1044.0
5 21 64.30 36.60 0.00 10.21 1054.2
5 22 69.40 37.10 0.00 12.83 1067.0
5 23 62.40 40.10 0.00 10.33 1077.3
5 24 61.90 49.00 0.16 14.45 1091.8
5 25 62.90 52.10 0.02 16.50 1108.3
5 26 73.80 40.50 0.00 16.18 1124.4
5 27 63.40 49.50 0.12 15.45 1139.9
5 28 68.00 45.80 0.00 15.90 1155.8
5 29 79.00 45.70 0.00 21.35 1177.1
5 30 83.60 45.90 0.00 23.75 1200.9
5 31 86.90 49.40 0.00 27.15 1228.0
6 1 93.00 57.60 0.00 34.30 1262.3
6 2 89.30 55.40 0.00 31.35 1293.7 Peak egg hatch
6 3 82.80 50.60 0.00 25.70 1319.4
6 4 77.30 48.80 0.00 22.05 1341.4
6 5 65.60 45.00 0.00 14.30 1355.7
6 6 63.50 38.10 0.00 10.22 1366.0
6 7 61.90 47.80 0.02 13.85 1379.8
6 8 65.40 43.30 0.01 13.35 1393.2
6 9 68.60 36.20 0.00 12.20 1405.4
6 10 67.50 41.10 0.00 13.30 1418.7
6 11 68.40 48.80 0.20 17.60 1436.3
6 12 78.90 52.60 0.76 24.75 1461.0
6 13 65.40 59.80 0.66 21.60 1482.6
6 14 73.10 57.40 0.07 24.25 1506.9
6 15 68.20 47.70 0.09 16.95 1523.8
6 16 77.50 49.60 0.00 22.55 1546.4
6 17 81.90 48.20 0.00 24.05 1570.4
6 18 79.00 47.90 0.00 22.45 1592.9
6 19 81.10 49.00 0.00 24.05 1616.9
6 20 88.60 56.60 0.00 31.60 1648.5
6 21 91.50 58.20 0.00 33.85 1682.4
6 22 85.20 53.30 0.00 28.25 1710.6
6 23 83.10 53.50 0.00 27.30 1737.9
6 24 88.10 50.40 0.00 28.25 1766.2
6 25 91.70 57.30 0.00 33.50 1799.7
6 26 100.80 61.30 0.00 40.05 1839.7
6 27 108.20 64.70 0.00 45.45 1885.2
6 28 108.90 64.10 0.00 45.50 1930.7
6 29 88.40 56.40 0.00 31.40 1962.1
6 30 71.80 60.40 0.00 25.10 1987.2
7 1 77.50 62.00 0.00 28.75 2015.9
7 2 85.00 61.70 0.00 32.35 2048.3
7 3 89.20 55.30 0.00 31.25 2079.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 4 86.90 53.80 0.00 29.35 2108.9
7 5 87.80 51.10 0.00 28.45 2137.3
7 6 91.70 54.70 0.00 32.20 2169.5
7 7 78.40 56.50 0.00 26.45 2196.0
7 8 79.20 51.20 0.00 24.20 2220.2
7 9 90.20 47.60 0.00 27.90 2248.1
7 10 89.80 53.70 0.00 30.75 2278.8
7 11 88.40 51.30 0.00 28.85 2307.7
7 12 86.90 51.70 0.00 28.30 2336.0
7 13 87.40 50.80 0.00 28.10 2364.1
7 14 85.40 49.60 0.00 26.50 2390.6
7 15 79.20 49.60 0.00 23.40 2414.0
7 16 80.10 47.10 0.00 22.60 2436.6
7 17 82.30 49.30 0.00 24.80 2461.4
7 18 86.10 48.80 0.00 26.45 2487.8
7 19 87.00 51.50 0.00 28.25 2516.1
7 20 80.90 50.40 0.00 24.65 2540.7
7 21 75.60 51.50 0.00 22.55 2563.3
7 22 81.60 54.60 0.00 27.10 2590.4
7 23 86.00 50.20 0.00 27.10 2617.5
7 24 92.20 57.50 0.00 33.85 2651.3
7 25 91.10 55.90 0.00 32.50 2683.8
7 26 90.50 55.50 0.00 32.00 2715.8
7 27 88.50 58.00 0.00 32.25 2748.1
7 28 92.80 55.10 0.00 32.95 2781.0
7 29 97.40 58.80 0.00 37.10 2818.1
7 30 92.50 60.40 0.00 35.45 2853.6
7 31 84.60 66.30 0.00 34.45 2888.0
8 1 91.70 56.40 0.00 33.05 2921.1
8 2 93.80 60.60 0.00 36.20 2957.3
8 3 89.20 56.50 0.00 31.85 2989.1
8 4 95.50 59.00 0.00 36.25 3025.4
8 5 78.90 57.70 0.00 27.30 3052.7
8 6 84.90 57.80 0.00 30.35 3083.0
8 7 86.70 56.90 0.00 30.80 3113.8
8 8 77.90 48.60 0.00 22.25 3136.1
8 9 80.50 56.90 0.00 27.70 3163.8
8 10 93.40 59.30 0.00 35.35 3199.1
8 11 100.30 65.90 0.00 42.10 3241.2
8 12 100.30 64.20 0.00 41.25 3282.5
8 13 94.50 63.30 0.00 37.90 3320.4
8 14 94.50 60.20 0.00 36.35 3356.7
8 15 94.30 58.40 0.00 35.35 3392.1
8 16 83.60 53.10 0.00 27.35 3419.4
8 17 71.60 52.60 0.00 21.10 3440.5
8 18 82.90 46.50 0.00 23.70 3464.2
8 19 82.30 48.80 0.00 24.55 3488.8
8 20 74.50 50.60 0.00 21.55 3510.3
8 21 73.50 55.90 0.00 23.70 3534.0
8 22 68.60 52.40 0.00 19.50 3553.5
8 23 74.30 47.90 0.00 20.10 3573.6
8 24 83.10 47.50 0.00 24.30 3597.9
8 25 79.50 48.10 0.00 22.80 3620.7
8 26 78.80 59.70 0.00 28.25 3649.0
8 27 75.40 57.70 0.00 25.55 3674.5
8 28 86.60 50.60 0.00 27.60 3702.1
8 29 88.00 54.50 0.00 30.25 3732.4
8 30 72.90 48.00 0.00 19.45 3751.8
8 31 72.00 49.70 0.00 19.85 3771.7
9 1 76.90 46.20 0.00 20.55 3792.2
9 2 83.20 48.70 0.00 24.95 3817.2
9 3 83.70 46.00 0.00 23.85 3841.0
9 4 88.30 46.10 0.00 26.20 3867.2
9 5 85.60 52.90 0.00 28.25 3895.5
9 6 83.00 54.90 0.00 27.95 3923.4
9 7 84.00 55.80 0.00 28.90 3952.3
9 8 89.10 51.50 0.00 29.30 3981.6
9 9 84.60 52.20 0.00 27.40 4009.0
9 10 72.50 51.60 0.00 21.05 4030.1
9 11 79.90 45.60 0.00 21.75 4051.8
9 12 75.90 52.10 0.00 23.00 4074.8
9 13 74.70 49.00 0.00 20.85 4095.7
9 14 83.40 47.60 0.00 24.50 4120.2
9 15 74.70 49.40 0.00 21.05 4141.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 CRVO CORVALLIS OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-8-21 | 853 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-14-21 | 965 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-16-21 | 1004 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-2-21 | 1294 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-3-21 | 2080 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?32010)
