Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 42.40 28.90 0.00 0.19 0.2 * START * 1 2 43.40 33.00 0.00 0.50 0.7 1 3 45.60 34.10 0.00 1.29 2.0 1 4 44.30 35.10 0.03 0.87 2.9 1 5 52.30 39.80 0.43 5.21 8.1 1 6 48.70 33.50 0.10 2.47 10.5 1 7 46.80 35.20 0.02 1.85 12.4 1 8 44.10 35.70 0.03 0.83 13.2 1 9 50.80 42.80 0.58 5.80 19.0 1 10 49.40 39.40 0.09 3.68 22.7 1 11 56.50 48.90 0.83 11.70 34.4 1 12 53.90 48.20 0.04 10.05 44.4 1 13 56.60 39.40 0.00 7.21 51.7 1 14 47.50 36.60 0.01 2.29 53.9 1 15 53.10 33.30 0.12 4.33 58.3 1 16 55.60 41.20 0.01 7.40 65.7 1 17 63.00 39.10 0.16 10.28 76.0 1 18 50.90 41.30 0.59 5.10 81.1 1 19 47.20 39.50 0.15 2.64 83.7 1 20 48.40 37.80 0.01 2.87 86.6 1 21 47.40 40.30 0.12 2.94 89.5 1 22 50.00 36.30 0.09 3.36 92.9 1 23 50.10 37.00 0.67 3.52 96.4 1 24 50.60 39.50 0.23 4.29 100.7 1 25 46.60 35.80 0.71 1.82 102.5 1 26 47.20 37.00 0.05 2.21 104.7 1 27 53.80 42.70 0.09 7.25 112.0 1 28 60.60 45.80 0.01 12.20 124.2 1 29 58.40 44.90 0.29 10.65 134.8 1 30 49.70 40.80 0.14 4.26 139.1 1 31 47.00 38.60 0.04 2.36 141.4 2 1 51.10 39.60 0.01 4.56 146.0 2 2 62.60 44.00 0.00 12.30 158.3 2 3 60.30 45.50 0.01 11.90 170.2 2 4 59.60 43.30 0.01 10.45 180.6 2 5 60.20 38.30 0.00 8.66 189.3 2 6 56.40 33.70 0.01 5.87 195.2 2 7 55.10 38.10 0.00 6.12 201.3 2 8 59.10 36.80 0.01 7.74 209.0 2 9 50.10 39.70 0.00 4.10 213.1 2 10 47.60 34.60 0.00 2.12 215.2 2 11 44.70 31.30 0.01 0.85 216.1 2 12 47.40 33.80 0.00 1.97 218.1 2 13 51.70 23.90 0.00 2.94 221.0 2 14 49.50 35.60 0.32 3.04 224.0 2 15 49.60 31.80 0.00 2.68 226.7 2 16 49.90 38.60 0.01 3.73 230.5 2 17 53.10 42.40 0.09 6.75 237.2 2 18 41.50 32.60 0.25 0.05 237.3 2 19 40.70 31.90 0.00 0.00 237.3 2 20 41.00 28.10 0.20 0.00 237.3 2 21 38.70 30.30 0.00 0.00 237.3 2 22 40.70 30.80 0.07 0.00 237.3 2 23 39.60 22.20 0.00 0.00 237.3 2 24 46.10 36.50 0.27 1.68 238.9 2 25 46.10 34.90 0.54 1.54 240.5 2 26 46.50 30.30 0.02 1.41 241.9 2 27 45.40 29.50 0.00 1.01 242.9 2 28 46.60 39.50 0.43 2.35 245.3 3 1 43.70 37.50 0.11 0.79 246.0 3 2 49.90 35.10 0.00 3.15 249.2 3 3 48.10 31.20 0.05 2.05 251.3 3 4 48.60 30.30 0.02 2.18 253.4 3 5 54.10 33.00 0.01 4.73 258.2 3 6 53.50 36.90 0.00 5.09 263.2 3 7 50.90 33.50 0.00 3.40 266.6 3 8 54.80 39.20 0.26 6.26 272.9 3 9 51.90 39.70 0.00 4.98 277.9 3 10 56.60 35.40 0.00 6.26 284.1 3 11 63.90 38.00 0.01 10.39 294.5 3 12 67.70 36.00 0.00 11.71 306.2 3 13 57.10 43.40 0.56 9.25 315.5 3 14 53.80 37.70 0.03 5.40 320.9 3 15 51.60 32.50 0.06 3.58 324.5 3 16 52.00 33.90 0.01 3.92 328.4 3 17 51.50 36.60 0.17 4.10 332.5 3 18 52.40 35.90 0.00 4.39 336.9 3 19 54.00 31.90 0.00 4.55 341.4 3 20 59.80 29.90 0.01 6.84 348.3 3 21 53.50 36.70 0.45 5.05 353.3 3 22 48.40 33.90 0.89 2.38 355.7 3 23 42.30 35.10 0.79 0.24 355.9 3 24 47.60 34.60 0.19 2.12 358.1 3 25 49.30 33.80 0.16 2.75 360.8 3 26 50.20 32.90 0.04 3.03 363.8 3 27 56.90 41.00 0.00 7.95 371.8 3 28 58.90 38.60 0.00 8.10 379.9 3 29 59.40 37.60 0.00 8.08 388.0 3 30 60.20 35.20 0.00 7.92 395.9 3 31 61.90 39.10 0.00 9.73 405.6 4 1 51.50 34.40 0.04 3.77 409.4 4 2 52.30 34.10 0.01 4.08 413.5 4 3 53.10 32.20 0.00 4.19 417.7 4 4 62.10 44.20 0.02 12.15 429.8 4 5 53.30 46.20 0.35 8.75 438.6 4 6 69.90 52.20 0.06 20.05 458.6 4 7 60.60 47.20 1.14 12.90 471.5 4 8 53.20 43.00 0.55 7.10 478.6 4 9 63.30 37.80 0.01 10.04 488.7 4 10 60.80 47.20 0.02 13.00 501.7 4 11 54.80 40.90 0.33 6.85 508.5 4 12 50.60 39.20 0.44 4.21 512.7 4 13 56.00 44.90 0.07 9.45 522.2 4 14 57.80 48.00 0.25 11.90 534.1 4 15 50.70 41.50 0.70 5.10 539.2 4 16 48.60 38.90 0.26 3.17 542.3 4 17 53.00 41.00 0.16 6.00 548.3 4 18 58.50 40.60 0.00 8.58 556.9 4 19 65.20 33.80 0.00 10.00 566.9 4 20 66.10 34.60 0.00 10.60 577.5 4 21 60.30 45.30 0.00 11.80 589.3 4 22 62.80 37.60 0.00 9.74 599.1 4 23 74.00 43.90 0.00 17.95 617.0 4 24 79.50 48.50 0.00 23.00 640.0 4 25 79.00 43.90 0.00 20.45 660.5 4 26 72.50 45.10 0.00 17.80 678.3 4 27 52.90 48.60 0.28 9.75 688.0 4 28 58.90 45.90 0.00 11.40 699.4 4 29 59.80 45.30 0.05 11.55 711.0 4 30 57.00 45.70 0.03 10.35 721.3 5 1 58.20 44.40 0.00 10.30 731.6 5 2 71.00 39.30 0.00 14.32 745.9 5 3 72.00 41.70 0.00 15.85 761.8 5 4 64.40 49.50 0.00 15.95 777.7 5 5 71.70 47.80 0.00 18.75 796.5 5 6 65.60 47.30 0.06 15.45 811.9 5 7 70.10 47.00 0.00 17.55 829.5 5 8 72.10 44.40 0.08 17.25 846.7 5 9 67.00 52.50 0.00 18.75 865.5 peak pheromone trap catch 5 10 63.70 43.50 0.04 12.60 878.1 5 11 65.70 43.30 0.00 13.50 891.6 5 12 77.40 45.40 0.00 20.40 912.0 5 13 84.50 46.10 0.00 24.30 936.3 5 14 82.90 47.10 0.00 24.00 960.3 peak female adult emergence 5 15 70.20 44.90 0.00 16.55 976.8 5 16 66.30 53.40 0.00 18.85 995.7 5 17 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1011.9 peak egg laying 5 18 69.40 45.20 0.00 16.30 1028.2 5 19 69.80 46.20 0.00 17.00 1045.2 5 20 69.30 44.70 0.00 16.00 1061.2 5 21 73.40 42.20 0.00 16.80 1078.0 5 22 82.00 46.70 0.00 23.35 1101.3 5 23 73.90 49.60 0.01 20.75 1122.1 5 24 71.40 54.40 0.00 21.90 1144.0 5 25 67.40 52.20 0.00 18.80 1162.8 5 26 65.50 41.30 0.00 12.40 1175.2 5 27 77.40 43.80 0.00 19.60 1194.8 5 28 73.90 46.00 0.00 18.95 1213.7 5 29 66.40 48.50 0.00 16.45 1230.2 5 30 66.30 40.80 0.00 12.56 1242.7 5 31 63.90 47.90 0.00 14.90 1257.6 6 1 72.30 36.60 0.00 14.11 1271.7 peak egg hatch 6 2 81.10 42.10 0.00 20.60 1292.3 6 3 72.80 47.10 0.00 18.95 1311.3 6 4 69.20 49.00 0.00 18.10 1329.4 6 5 71.70 38.20 0.00 14.30 1343.7 6 6 75.70 41.30 0.00 17.50 1361.2 6 7 70.80 49.50 0.00 19.15 1380.3 6 8 67.30 46.80 0.40 16.05 1396.4 6 9 62.60 46.60 0.04 13.60 1410.0 6 10 56.80 47.40 0.25 11.10 1421.1 6 11 70.20 50.70 0.06 19.45 1440.5 6 12 80.10 46.00 0.00 22.05 1462.6 6 13 65.30 49.50 0.00 16.40 1479.0 6 14 67.60 50.30 0.00 17.95 1496.9 6 15 70.80 49.10 0.00 18.95 1515.9 6 16 77.00 50.80 0.00 22.90 1538.8 6 17 87.20 57.20 0.01 31.20 1570.0 6 18 82.60 53.80 0.01 27.20 1597.2 6 19 89.10 49.10 0.00 28.10 1625.3 6 20 82.70 54.60 0.00 27.65 1652.9 6 21 76.00 56.40 0.00 25.20 1678.1 6 22 77.00 56.40 0.00 25.70 1703.8 6 23 76.80 55.40 0.00 25.10 1728.9 6 24 89.60 54.60 0.00 31.10 1760.0 6 25 71.80 48.00 0.00 18.90 1778.9 6 26 76.40 43.50 0.00 18.95 1797.9 6 27 77.20 48.50 0.00 21.85 1819.7 6 28 75.40 43.30 0.00 18.35 1838.1 6 29 81.50 44.20 0.00 21.85 1859.9 6 30 83.70 48.10 0.00 24.90 1884.8 7 1 79.20 56.00 0.00 26.60 1911.4 7 2 71.80 47.90 0.00 18.85 1930.3 7 3 75.80 41.80 0.00 17.80 1948.1 7 4 73.10 56.50 0.00 23.80 1971.9 7 5 85.40 48.50 0.00 25.95 1997.8 7 6 77.20 50.40 0.00 22.80 2020.6 7 7 80.80 48.90 0.00 23.85 2044.5 7 8 81.90 53.10 0.00 26.50 2071.0 peak in density large larvae 7 9 70.10 49.20 0.00 18.65 2089.6 7 10 80.20 52.10 0.00 25.15 2114.8 7 11 88.30 55.30 0.00 30.80 2145.6 7 12 97.30 63.30 0.00 39.30 2184.9 7 13 93.30 61.30 0.00 36.30 2221.2 7 14 92.20 54.30 0.00 32.25 2253.4
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2253QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 3 days ahead 2017 ok
 11 days behind 2016 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for CRVO data
  7 15  89.80 55.80  0.00  31.80   2285.2  0.00_22.80%_precip.    
  7 16  88.60 54.80  0.00  30.70   2315.9  0.00_21.70%_precip.    
  7 17  83.70 50.90  0.00  26.30   2342.2  0.00_17.30%_precip.    
  7 18  76.90 50.90  0.00  22.90   2365.1  0.00_13.90%_precip.    
  7 19  81.30 47.70  0.00  23.50   2388.6  0.00_14.58%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg CRVO 2006-2015
  7 20  82.40 53.20  0.00  26.80   2415.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 21  81.50 52.80  0.01  26.15   2441.6  *hist_fcst*    
  7 22  83.00 53.70  0.00  27.35   2468.9  *hist_fcst*    
  7 23  80.50 54.10  0.01  26.30   2495.2  *hist_fcst*    
  7 24  82.40 53.30  0.03  26.85   2522.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 25  86.10 53.40  0.00  28.75   2550.8  *hist_fcst*    
  7 26  84.90 52.20  0.00  27.55   2578.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 27  84.60 52.10  0.00  27.35   2605.7  *hist_fcst*    
  7 28  84.50 53.10  0.00  27.80   2633.5  *hist_fcst*    
  7 29  85.20 52.60  0.00  27.90   2661.4  *hist_fcst*    
  7 30  84.00 53.40  0.00  27.70   2689.1  *hist_fcst*    
  7 31  83.60 52.20  0.00  26.90   2716.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8  1  85.10 53.00  0.01  28.05   2744.1  *hist_fcst*    
  8  2  83.90 53.80  0.00  27.85   2771.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8  3  83.00 52.40  0.00  26.70   2798.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  4  84.30 51.70  0.00  27.00   2825.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8  5  86.00 51.50  0.00  27.75   2853.4  *hist_fcst*    
  8  6  85.30 52.50  0.00  27.90   2881.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  7  82.90 53.00  0.00  26.95   2908.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8  8  80.50 51.70  0.00  25.10   2933.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8  9  78.90 52.90  0.00  24.90   2958.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 10  80.40 51.70  0.00  25.05   2983.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 11  81.30 51.20  0.00  25.25   3008.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 12  83.50 52.80  0.02  27.15   3035.7  *hist_fcst*    
  8 13  82.30 51.60  0.00  25.95   3061.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 14  84.10 51.80  0.00  26.95   3088.6  *hist_fcst*    
  8 15  85.70 53.50  0.01  28.60   3117.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 16  83.40 53.90  0.00  27.65   3144.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 17  85.60 53.30  0.01  28.45   3173.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 18  85.90 53.50  0.00  28.70   3202.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 19  84.50 54.10  0.06  28.30   3230.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 20  84.30 53.60  0.03  27.95   3258.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 21  80.80 51.80  0.05  25.30   3283.5  *hist_fcst*    
  8 22  79.90 50.60  0.01  24.25   3307.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 23  80.20 50.70  0.00  24.45   3332.2  *hist_fcst*    
  8 24  81.30 50.80  0.00  25.05   3357.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 25  83.00 51.00  0.04  26.00   3383.3  *hist_fcst*    
  8 26  82.40 50.80  0.01  25.60   3408.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 27  83.00 50.90  0.00  25.95   3434.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 28  84.60 51.70  0.00  27.15   3462.0  *hist_fcst*    
  8 29  81.80 52.10  0.03  25.95   3487.9  *hist_fcst*    
  8 30  77.50 52.30  0.05  23.90   3511.8  *hist_fcst*    
  8 31  75.50 50.70  0.04  22.10   3533.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  1  76.10 48.50  0.01  21.30   3555.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  2  79.80 49.50  0.00  23.65   3578.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  3  81.30 49.30  0.01  24.30   3603.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9  4  81.30 49.20  0.04  24.25   3627.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9  5  79.50 49.70  0.04  23.60   3651.0  *hist_fcst*    
  9  6  79.50 50.20  0.34  23.85   3674.9  *hist_fcst*    
  9  7  80.30 48.90  0.01  23.60   3698.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9  8  80.30 50.00  0.04  24.15   3722.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9  9  80.20 49.80  0.01  24.00   3746.6  *hist_fcst*    
  9 10  80.30 51.10  0.00  24.70   3771.3  *hist_fcst*    
  9 11  83.10 49.70  0.00  25.40   3796.7  *hist_fcst*    
  9 12  85.70 49.60  0.00  26.65   3823.4  *hist_fcst*    
  9 13  83.70 48.60  0.00  25.15   3848.5  *hist_fcst*    
  9 14  77.20 50.20  0.00  22.70   3871.2  *hist_fcst*    
  9 15  76.80 49.40  0.01  22.10   3893.3  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 CRVO CORVALLIS OR
DD accumulation on 7-14-18: 2253 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 3 days ahead 2017 ok
 11 days behind 2016 ok
 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-9-18 865peak pheromone trap catch
 5-14-18 960peak female adult emergence
 5-17-18 1012peak egg laying
 6-1-18 1272peak egg hatch
 7-8-18 2071peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)