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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 AU155 APRSWXNET N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Lat46.1867 Long:-119.8275 Elev:679
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 33.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 32.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 3 39.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 36.00 32.00 0.05 0.00 0.0
1 5 42.00 30.00 0.12 0.12 0.1
1 6 42.00 27.00 0.06 0.11 0.2
1 7 37.00 32.00 0.22 0.00 0.2
1 8 37.00 33.00 0.06 0.00 0.2
1 9 40.00 31.00 5.86 0.00 0.2
1 10 44.90 32.00 0.00 0.94 1.2 Px
1 11 44.00 34.00 0.01 0.72 1.9
1 12 40.00 34.90 0.08 0.00 1.9 Pn
1 13 44.00 32.90 0.00 0.68 2.6 Pn
1 14 40.00 36.00 0.06 0.00 2.6
1 15 49.00 36.00 0.00 2.87 5.5
1 16 53.00 29.00 0.00 3.82 9.3
1 17 43.00 25.00 0.00 0.29 9.6
1 18 38.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 9.6
1 19 48.00 24.00 0.00 1.66 11.2
1 20 44.00 21.00 0.00 0.47 11.7
1 21 40.00 20.00 0.01 0.00 11.7
1 22 43.00 26.00 0.00 0.29 12.0
1 23 48.00 24.00 0.00 1.66 13.6
1 24 46.00 24.00 0.00 1.04 14.7
1 25 43.00 25.00 0.00 0.29 15.0
1 26 43.00 24.00 0.00 0.28 15.2
1 27 57.00 34.00 0.00 6.19 21.4
1 28 42.00 27.00 0.03 0.11 21.5
1 29 32.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
1 30 32.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
1 31 32.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
2 1 37.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
2 2 40.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
2 3 46.00 21.00 0.00 0.97 22.5
2 4 53.00 37.00 0.48 4.87 27.4
2 5 44.00 34.00 0.01 0.72 28.1
2 6 50.00 29.00 0.00 2.63 30.7
2 7 54.00 35.00 0.00 4.98 35.7
2 8 53.00 30.00 0.00 3.91 39.6
2 9 48.00 27.00 0.00 1.78 41.4
2 10 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 42.6
2 11 52.00 23.00 0.00 3.00 45.6
2 12 54.00 24.00 0.00 3.82 49.4
2 13 52.00 32.00 0.00 3.70 53.1
2 14 50.00 29.00 0.00 2.63 55.7
2 15 49.00 19.00 0.00 1.80 57.5
2 16 49.00 21.00 0.00 1.87 59.4
2 17 56.00 31.00 0.00 5.31 64.7
2 18 56.00 33.00 0.00 5.58 70.3
2 19 58.00 27.00 0.00 5.71 76.0
2 20 60.00 43.00 0.31 10.50 86.5
2 21 51.00 33.00 0.01 3.38 89.9
2 22 35.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 89.9
2 23 24.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 89.9
2 24 31.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 89.9
2 25 36.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 89.9
2 26 50.00 21.00 0.00 2.20 92.1
2 27 40.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 92.1
2 28 43.00 30.00 0.00 0.34 92.4
3 1 50.00 23.00 0.00 2.29 94.7
3 2 53.00 34.00 0.00 4.38 99.1
3 3 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 101.8
3 4 49.00 31.00 0.00 2.38 104.1
3 5 48.00 23.00 0.18 1.62 105.8
3 6 49.00 31.00 0.00 2.38 108.1
3 7 50.00 24.00 0.00 2.34 110.5
3 8 43.00 27.00 0.00 0.30 110.8
3 9 44.00 25.00 0.34 0.51 111.3
3 10 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.96 114.3
3 11 53.00 25.00 0.00 3.50 117.8
3 12 46.00 25.00 0.01 1.06 118.8
3 13 61.00 35.00 0.00 8.25 127.1
3 14 49.00 27.00 0.00 2.13 129.2
3 15 55.00 27.00 0.00 4.46 133.7
3 16 54.00 23.00 0.00 3.75 137.4
3 17 56.00 23.00 0.00 4.52 141.9
3 18 60.00 29.00 0.00 6.81 148.7
3 19 58.00 30.00 0.02 6.06 154.8
3 20 56.00 42.00 0.01 8.00 162.8
3 21 58.00 36.00 0.00 7.04 169.8
3 22 63.00 26.00 0.00 7.74 177.6
3 23 58.00 37.00 0.01 7.26 184.8
3 24 51.00 33.00 0.18 3.38 188.2
3 25 51.00 28.00 0.00 2.94 191.2
3 26 55.00 22.00 0.00 4.06 195.2
3 27 56.00 23.00 0.00 4.52 199.7
3 28 50.00 40.00 0.11 4.14 203.9
3 29 52.00 41.00 0.00 5.50 209.4
3 30 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 216.2
3 31 53.00 28.00 0.01 3.73 219.9
4 1 54.00 39.00 0.00 5.81 225.7
4 2 53.00 37.00 0.01 4.87 230.6
4 3 53.00 35.00 0.01 4.53 235.1
4 4 54.00 24.00 0.00 3.82 238.9
4 5 56.00 24.00 0.01 4.60 243.5
4 6 60.00 34.00 0.00 7.59 251.1
4 7 64.00 44.00 0.06 13.00 264.1
4 8 60.00 34.00 0.00 7.59 271.7
4 9 65.00 47.00 0.19 15.00 286.7
4 10 56.00 49.00 0.43 11.50 298.2
4 11 56.00 34.00 0.00 5.74 303.9
4 12 54.00 30.00 0.00 4.33 308.3
4 13 58.00 27.00 0.00 5.71 314.0
4 14 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 322.0
4 15 63.00 31.00 0.00 8.46 330.5
4 16 62.00 39.00 0.00 9.75 340.2
4 17 55.00 36.00 0.00 5.62 345.9
4 18 56.00 37.00 0.00 6.30 352.2
4 19 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.78 358.9
4 20 51.00 27.00 0.15 2.87 361.8
4 21 56.00 37.00 0.00 6.30 368.1
4 22 66.00 43.00 0.01 13.50 381.6
4 23 71.00 46.00 0.00 17.50 399.1
4 24 65.00 45.00 0.00 14.00 413.1
4 25 70.00 34.00 0.31 12.34 425.4
4 26 77.00 39.00 0.00 17.20 442.6
4 27 75.00 47.00 0.00 20.00 462.6
4 28 79.00 38.00 0.87 17.85 480.5
4 29 84.00 44.00 0.00 23.00 503.5
4 30 82.00 48.00 0.02 24.00 527.5
5 1 66.00 49.00 0.03 16.50 544.0
5 2 72.00 45.00 0.00 17.50 561.5
5 3 84.00 46.00 0.03 24.00 585.5
5 4 80.00 53.00 0.12 25.50 611.0
5 5 58.00 51.00 0.02 13.50 624.5
5 6 68.00 46.00 0.01 16.00 640.5
5 7 65.00 51.00 0.00 17.00 657.5
5 8 70.00 41.00 0.82 14.50 672.0
5 9 69.00 49.00 0.00 18.00 690.0
5 10 75.00 39.00 0.00 16.20 706.2
5 11 79.00 42.00 0.16 19.50 725.7
5 12 82.00 42.00 0.00 21.00 746.7
5 13 87.00 46.00 0.00 25.50 772.2
5 14 86.00 53.00 0.00 28.50 800.7
5 15 85.00 61.00 0.00 32.00 832.7
5 16 80.00 58.00 0.14 28.00 860.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 17 82.00 55.00 0.00 27.50 888.2
5 18 88.00 53.00 0.00 29.50 917.7
5 19 92.00 57.00 0.00 33.50 951.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 20 96.00 63.00 0.00 38.50 989.7
5 21 85.00 55.00 0.00 29.00 1018.7 Peak egg laying
5 22 73.00 44.00 0.00 17.50 1036.2
5 23 73.00 41.00 0.00 16.00 1052.2
5 24 78.00 46.00 0.00 21.00 1073.2
5 25 79.00 52.00 0.00 24.50 1097.7
5 26 80.00 51.00 0.00 24.50 1122.2
5 27 85.00 48.00 0.00 25.50 1147.7
5 28 87.00 52.00 0.00 28.50 1176.2
5 29 87.00 51.00 0.00 28.00 1204.2
5 30 83.00 51.00 0.13 26.00 1230.2
5 31 76.00 54.00 0.11 24.00 1254.2
6 1 78.00 44.00 0.00 20.00 1274.2 Peak egg hatch
6 2 82.00 45.00 0.00 22.50 1296.7
6 3 86.00 46.00 0.00 25.00 1321.7
6 4 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 1352.2
6 5 91.00 57.00 0.00 33.00 1385.2
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1385.
QA 98% ok
| |
| This year is about | versus | QA |
| 8 days ahead | 2022 | ok |
| 3 days behind | 2021 | ok |
| 1 day behind | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 6 89.00 54.00 0.00 30.50 1415.7 Mostly_Sunny
6 7 92.00 58.00 0.00 34.00 1449.7 Partly_Cloudy
6 8 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 1488.2 Partly_Cloudy_4%_precip
6 9 94.00 63.00 0.00 37.50 1525.7 Mostly_Cloudy_19%_precip
6 10 81.00 58.00 0.00 28.50 1554.2 Partly_Cloudy_21%_precip
6 11 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 1582.7 Partly_Cloudy_11%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 AU155 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 77.60 49.30 0.00 22.45 1605.1 *hist_fcst*
6 13 79.00 49.10 0.01 23.05 1628.2 *hist_fcst*
6 14 75.30 47.10 0.01 20.20 1648.4 *hist_fcst*
6 15 74.30 46.50 0.02 19.40 1667.8 *hist_fcst*
6 16 75.20 47.80 0.02 20.50 1688.3 *hist_fcst*
6 17 77.30 50.60 0.01 22.95 1711.2 *hist_fcst*
6 18 80.00 51.00 0.05 24.50 1735.7 *hist_fcst*
6 19 77.20 51.00 0.05 23.10 1758.8 *hist_fcst*
6 20 80.20 52.30 0.00 25.25 1784.1 *hist_fcst*
6 21 79.70 53.10 0.02 25.40 1809.5 *hist_fcst*
6 22 81.00 53.40 0.00 26.20 1835.7 *hist_fcst*
6 23 83.00 52.80 0.02 26.90 1862.6 *hist_fcst*
6 24 82.70 53.90 0.02 27.30 1889.9 *hist_fcst*
6 25 82.50 54.80 0.03 27.65 1917.5 *hist_fcst*
6 26 83.20 55.20 0.01 28.20 1945.7 *hist_fcst*
6 27 84.50 56.20 0.04 29.35 1975.1 *hist_fcst*
6 28 86.10 57.00 0.00 30.55 2005.6 *hist_fcst*
6 29 86.20 58.50 0.03 31.35 2037.0 *hist_fcst*
6 30 88.30 58.70 0.00 32.50 2069.5 *hist_fcst*
7 1 88.70 57.70 0.00 32.20 2101.7 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 2 88.90 57.20 0.00 32.05 2133.7 *hist_fcst*
7 3 88.10 56.20 0.01 31.15 2164.9 *hist_fcst*
7 4 86.20 54.80 0.00 29.50 2194.4 *hist_fcst*
7 5 86.80 54.30 0.00 29.55 2223.9 *hist_fcst*
7 6 89.20 56.60 0.00 31.90 2255.8 *hist_fcst*
7 7 90.10 57.20 0.00 32.65 2288.5 *hist_fcst*
7 8 88.80 57.40 0.01 32.10 2320.6 *hist_fcst*
7 9 89.10 58.10 0.01 32.60 2353.2 *hist_fcst*
7 10 90.20 59.30 0.00 33.75 2386.9 *hist_fcst*
7 11 88.40 57.70 0.00 32.05 2419.0 *hist_fcst*
7 12 88.50 56.70 0.00 31.60 2450.6 *hist_fcst*
7 13 88.60 57.00 0.00 31.80 2482.4 *hist_fcst*
7 14 88.60 57.90 0.00 32.25 2514.6 *hist_fcst*
7 15 90.40 57.40 0.00 32.90 2547.5 *hist_fcst*
7 16 88.60 58.70 0.02 32.65 2580.2 *hist_fcst*
7 17 88.70 59.30 0.02 33.00 2613.2 *hist_fcst*
7 18 88.60 57.80 0.00 32.20 2645.4 *hist_fcst*
7 19 88.80 58.60 0.02 32.70 2678.1 *hist_fcst*
7 20 89.50 58.80 0.00 33.15 2711.2 *hist_fcst*
7 21 87.70 55.90 0.00 30.80 2742.0 *hist_fcst*
7 22 88.70 55.80 0.00 31.25 2773.3 *hist_fcst*
7 23 87.20 56.60 0.00 30.90 2804.2 *hist_fcst*
7 24 88.10 54.90 0.04 30.50 2834.7 *hist_fcst*
7 25 87.90 56.70 0.00 31.30 2866.0 *hist_fcst*
7 26 90.00 57.80 0.00 32.90 2898.9 *hist_fcst*
7 27 91.70 59.80 0.00 34.75 2933.6 *hist_fcst*
7 28 89.30 58.40 0.00 32.85 2966.5 *hist_fcst*
7 29 91.30 59.00 0.00 34.15 3000.6 *hist_fcst*
7 30 94.40 60.90 0.00 36.65 3037.3 *hist_fcst*
7 31 95.50 62.70 0.00 38.10 3075.4 *hist_fcst*
8 1 94.00 62.40 0.00 37.20 3112.6 *hist_fcst*
8 2 92.00 61.50 0.00 35.75 3148.3 *hist_fcst*
8 3 88.80 60.00 0.00 33.40 3181.7 *hist_fcst*
8 4 88.60 59.50 0.00 33.05 3214.8 *hist_fcst*
8 5 91.80 60.20 0.00 35.00 3249.8 *hist_fcst*
8 6 92.20 60.70 0.00 35.45 3285.2 *hist_fcst*
8 7 90.80 58.90 0.00 33.85 3319.1 *hist_fcst*
8 8 90.80 59.30 0.00 34.05 3353.1 *hist_fcst*
8 9 87.50 58.20 0.01 31.85 3385.0 *hist_fcst*
8 10 88.40 58.70 0.01 32.55 3417.5 *hist_fcst*
8 11 91.20 60.00 0.03 34.60 3452.1 *hist_fcst*
8 12 90.90 60.20 0.01 34.55 3486.7 *hist_fcst*
8 13 90.20 59.60 0.01 33.90 3520.6 *hist_fcst*
8 14 88.90 58.70 0.03 32.80 3553.4 *hist_fcst*
8 15 88.00 59.30 0.01 32.65 3586.0 *hist_fcst*
8 16 88.90 58.80 0.00 32.85 3618.9 *hist_fcst*
8 17 90.50 60.00 0.00 34.25 3653.1 *hist_fcst*
8 18 88.10 58.70 0.00 32.40 3685.5 *hist_fcst*
8 19 90.90 59.30 0.00 34.10 3719.6 *hist_fcst*
8 20 88.60 58.90 0.00 32.75 3752.4 *hist_fcst*
8 21 87.10 57.80 0.00 31.45 3783.8 *hist_fcst*
8 22 84.70 55.60 0.02 29.15 3813.0 *hist_fcst*
8 23 82.40 54.50 0.00 27.45 3840.4 *hist_fcst*
8 24 82.10 53.30 0.00 26.70 3867.1 *hist_fcst*
8 25 83.00 54.20 0.01 27.60 3894.7 *hist_fcst*
8 26 82.40 53.80 0.01 27.10 3921.8 *hist_fcst*
8 27 83.70 55.70 0.00 28.70 3950.5 *hist_fcst*
8 28 85.90 55.90 0.00 29.90 3980.4 *hist_fcst*
8 29 86.40 56.60 0.00 30.50 4010.9 *hist_fcst*
8 30 86.00 56.80 0.00 30.40 4041.3 *hist_fcst*
8 31 81.00 53.50 0.00 26.25 4067.6 *hist_fcst*
9 1 81.40 51.90 0.00 25.65 4093.2 *hist_fcst*
9 2 82.10 52.40 0.02 26.25 4119.5 *hist_fcst*
9 3 82.60 53.10 0.00 26.85 4146.3 *hist_fcst*
9 4 82.20 53.60 0.00 26.90 4173.2 *hist_fcst*
9 5 82.50 54.60 0.00 27.55 4200.8 *hist_fcst*
9 6 83.80 54.70 0.03 28.25 4229.0 *hist_fcst*
9 7 80.00 54.70 0.04 26.35 4255.4 *hist_fcst*
9 8 81.60 54.20 0.01 26.90 4282.3 *hist_fcst*
9 9 80.70 53.20 0.00 25.95 4308.2 *hist_fcst*
9 10 80.10 52.80 0.00 25.45 4333.7 *hist_fcst*
9 11 78.50 51.60 0.04 24.05 4357.7 *hist_fcst*
9 12 78.50 51.10 0.00 23.80 4381.5 *hist_fcst*
9 13 79.50 51.50 0.00 24.50 4406.0 *hist_fcst*
9 14 77.50 50.80 0.00 23.15 4429.2 *hist_fcst*
9 15 77.00 49.80 0.00 22.40 4451.6 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 AU155 N7QNM-10 Prosser WA DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1385. QA 98% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | | | This year is about | versus | QA | | 8 days ahead | 2022 | ok | | 3 days behind | 2021 | ok | | 1 day behind | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
| Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-16-23 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-19-23 | 951 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-21-23 | 1019 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-1-23 | 1274 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-1-23 | 2102 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?28245)
