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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 AU155 APRSWXNET N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Lat46.1867 Long:-119.8275 Elev:679
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 33.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 32.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 3 39.00 31.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 36.00 32.00 0.05 0.00 0.0
1 5 42.00 30.00 0.12 0.12 0.1
1 6 42.00 27.00 0.06 0.11 0.2
1 7 37.00 32.00 0.22 0.00 0.2
1 8 37.00 33.00 0.06 0.00 0.2
1 9 40.00 31.00 5.86 0.00 0.2
1 10 44.90 32.00 0.00 0.94 1.2 Px
1 11 44.00 34.00 0.01 0.72 1.9
1 12 40.00 34.90 0.08 0.00 1.9 Pn
1 13 44.00 32.90 0.00 0.68 2.6 Pn
1 14 40.00 36.00 0.06 0.00 2.6
1 15 49.00 36.00 0.00 2.87 5.5
1 16 53.00 29.00 0.00 3.82 9.3
1 17 43.00 25.00 0.00 0.29 9.6
1 18 38.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 9.6
1 19 48.00 24.00 0.00 1.66 11.2
1 20 44.00 21.00 0.00 0.47 11.7
1 21 40.00 20.00 0.01 0.00 11.7
1 22 43.00 26.00 0.00 0.29 12.0
1 23 48.00 24.00 0.00 1.66 13.6
1 24 46.00 24.00 0.00 1.04 14.7
1 25 43.00 25.00 0.00 0.29 15.0
1 26 43.00 24.00 0.00 0.28 15.2
1 27 57.00 34.00 0.00 6.19 21.4
1 28 42.00 27.00 0.03 0.11 21.5
1 29 32.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
1 30 32.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
1 31 32.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
2 1 37.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
2 2 40.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 21.5
2 3 46.00 21.00 0.00 0.97 22.5
2 4 53.00 37.00 0.48 4.87 27.4
2 5 44.00 34.00 0.01 0.72 28.1
2 6 50.00 29.00 0.00 2.63 30.7
2 7 54.00 35.00 0.00 4.98 35.7
2 8 53.00 30.00 0.00 3.91 39.6
2 9 48.00 27.00 0.00 1.78 41.4
2 10 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 42.6
2 11 52.00 23.00 0.00 3.00 45.6
2 12 54.00 24.00 0.00 3.82 49.4
2 13 52.00 32.00 0.00 3.70 53.1
2 14 50.00 29.00 0.00 2.63 55.7
2 15 49.00 19.00 0.00 1.80 57.5
2 16 49.00 21.00 0.00 1.87 59.4
2 17 56.00 31.00 0.00 5.31 64.7
2 18 56.00 33.00 0.00 5.58 70.3
2 19 58.00 27.00 0.00 5.71 76.0
2 20 60.00 43.00 0.31 10.50 86.5
2 21 51.00 33.00 0.01 3.38 89.9
2 22 35.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 89.9
2 23 24.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 89.9
2 24 31.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 89.9
2 25 36.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 89.9
2 26 50.00 21.00 0.00 2.20 92.1
2 27 40.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 92.1
2 28 43.00 30.00 0.00 0.34 92.4
3 1 50.00 23.00 0.00 2.29 94.7
3 2 53.00 34.00 0.00 4.38 99.1
3 3 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 101.8
3 4 49.00 31.00 0.00 2.38 104.1
3 5 48.00 23.00 0.18 1.62 105.8
3 6 49.00 31.00 0.00 2.38 108.1
3 7 50.00 24.00 0.00 2.34 110.5
3 8 43.00 27.00 0.00 0.30 110.8
3 9 44.00 25.00 0.34 0.51 111.3
3 10 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.96 114.3
3 11 53.00 25.00 0.00 3.50 117.8
3 12 46.00 25.00 0.01 1.06 118.8
3 13 61.00 35.00 0.00 8.25 127.1
3 14 49.00 27.00 0.00 2.13 129.2
3 15 55.00 27.00 0.00 4.46 133.7
3 16 54.00 23.00 0.00 3.75 137.4
3 17 56.00 23.00 0.00 4.52 141.9
3 18 60.00 29.00 0.00 6.81 148.7
3 19 58.00 30.00 0.02 6.06 154.8
3 20 56.00 42.00 0.01 8.00 162.8
3 21 58.00 36.00 0.00 7.04 169.8
3 22 63.00 26.00 0.00 7.74 177.6
3 23 58.00 37.00 0.01 7.26 184.8
3 24 51.00 33.00 0.18 3.38 188.2
3 25 51.00 28.00 0.00 2.94 191.2
3 26 55.00 22.00 0.00 4.06 195.2
3 27 56.00 23.00 0.00 4.52 199.7
3 28 50.00 40.00 0.11 4.14 203.9
3 29 52.00 41.00 0.00 5.50 209.4
3 30 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 216.2
3 31 53.00 28.00 0.01 3.73 219.9
4 1 54.00 39.00 0.00 5.81 225.7
4 2 53.00 37.00 0.01 4.87 230.6
4 3 53.00 35.00 0.01 4.53 235.1
4 4 54.00 24.00 0.00 3.82 238.9
4 5 56.00 24.00 0.01 4.60 243.5
4 6 60.00 34.00 0.00 7.59 251.1
4 7 64.00 44.00 0.06 13.00 264.1
4 8 60.00 34.00 0.00 7.59 271.7
4 9 65.00 47.00 0.19 15.00 286.7
4 10 56.00 49.00 0.43 11.50 298.2
4 11 56.00 34.00 0.00 5.74 303.9
4 12 54.00 30.00 0.00 4.33 308.3
4 13 58.00 27.00 0.00 5.71 314.0
4 14 61.00 34.00 0.00 8.06 322.0
4 15 63.00 31.00 0.00 8.46 330.5
4 16 62.00 39.00 0.00 9.75 340.2
4 17 55.00 36.00 0.00 5.62 345.9
4 18 56.00 37.00 0.00 6.30 352.2
4 19 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.78 358.9
4 20 51.00 27.00 0.15 2.87 361.8
4 21 56.00 37.00 0.00 6.30 368.1
4 22 66.00 43.00 0.01 13.50 381.6
4 23 71.00 46.00 0.00 17.50 399.1
4 24 65.00 45.00 0.00 14.00 413.1
4 25 70.00 34.00 0.31 12.34 425.4
4 26 77.00 39.00 0.00 17.20 442.6
4 27 75.00 47.00 0.00 20.00 462.6
4 28 79.00 38.00 0.87 17.85 480.5
4 29 84.00 44.00 0.00 23.00 503.5
4 30 82.00 48.00 0.02 24.00 527.5
5 1 66.00 49.00 0.03 16.50 544.0
5 2 72.00 45.00 0.00 17.50 561.5
5 3 84.00 46.00 0.03 24.00 585.5
5 4 80.00 53.00 0.12 25.50 611.0
5 5 58.00 51.00 0.02 13.50 624.5
5 6 68.00 46.00 0.01 16.00 640.5
5 7 65.00 51.00 0.00 17.00 657.5
5 8 70.00 41.00 0.82 14.50 672.0
5 9 69.00 49.00 0.00 18.00 690.0
5 10 75.00 39.00 0.00 16.20 706.2
5 11 79.00 42.00 0.16 19.50 725.7
5 12 82.00 42.00 0.00 21.00 746.7
5 13 87.00 46.00 0.00 25.50 772.2
5 14 86.00 53.00 0.00 28.50 800.7
5 15 85.00 61.00 0.00 32.00 832.7
5 16 80.00 58.00 0.14 28.00 860.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 17 82.00 55.00 0.00 27.50 888.2
5 18 88.00 53.00 0.00 29.50 917.7
5 19 92.00 57.00 0.00 33.50 951.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 20 96.00 63.00 0.00 38.50 989.7
5 21 85.00 55.00 0.00 29.00 1018.7 Peak egg laying
5 22 73.00 44.00 0.00 17.50 1036.2
5 23 73.00 41.00 0.00 16.00 1052.2
5 24 78.00 46.00 0.00 21.00 1073.2
5 25 79.00 52.00 0.00 24.50 1097.7
5 26 80.00 51.00 0.00 24.50 1122.2
5 27 85.00 48.00 0.00 25.50 1147.7
5 28 87.00 52.00 0.00 28.50 1176.2
5 29 87.00 51.00 0.00 28.00 1204.2
5 30 83.00 51.00 0.13 26.00 1230.2
5 31 76.00 54.00 0.11 24.00 1254.2
6 1 78.00 44.00 0.00 20.00 1274.2 Peak egg hatch
6 2 82.00 45.00 0.00 22.50 1296.7
6 3 86.00 46.00 0.00 25.00 1321.7
6 4 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 1352.2
6 5 91.00 57.00 0.00 33.00 1385.2
6 6 90.00 48.00 0.00 28.00 1413.2
6 7 94.00 52.00 0.00 32.00 1445.2
6 8 83.00 61.00 0.47 31.00 1476.2
6 9 75.00 64.00 0.00 28.50 1504.7
6 10 76.00 58.00 0.00 26.00 1530.7
6 11 83.00 54.00 0.00 27.50 1558.2 Px
6 12 86.00 54.20 0.00 29.10 1587.3 Px Pn
6 13 72.10 51.00 0.00 20.55 1607.8 Px Pn
6 14 75.00 42.10 0.00 17.55 1625.4 Px Pn
6 15 69.90 51.00 0.00 19.45 1644.8 Px Pn
6 16 74.10 46.20 0.00 19.15 1664.0 Px Pn
6 17 84.90 43.20 0.00 23.05 1687.0 Px Pn
6 18 66.00 48.30 0.09 16.15 1703.2 Pn
6 19 68.00 38.00 0.01 12.41 1715.6
6 20 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1733.6
6 21 78.00 44.00 0.00 20.00 1753.6
6 22 81.00 46.00 0.35 22.50 1776.1
6 23 85.00 50.00 0.01 26.50 1802.6
6 24 89.00 49.00 0.00 28.00 1830.6
6 25 87.00 54.00 0.38 29.50 1860.1
6 26 86.00 57.00 0.02 30.50 1890.6
6 27 89.00 59.00 0.29 33.00 1923.6
6 28 90.00 58.00 0.00 33.00 1956.6
6 29 98.00 60.00 0.00 38.00 1994.6
6 30 95.00 58.00 0.00 35.50 2030.1
7 1 92.00 60.00 0.16 35.00 2065.1
7 2 93.00 57.00 0.00 34.00 2099.1 Peak in density large larvae
7 3 88.00 50.00 0.00 28.00 2127.1
7 4 91.00 51.00 0.00 30.00 2157.1
7 5 93.00 53.00 0.62 32.00 2189.1
7 6 98.00 54.00 0.00 35.00 2224.1
7 7 95.00 58.00 0.58 35.50 2259.6
7 8 98.00 60.00 0.00 38.00 2297.6
7 9 96.00 62.00 0.28 38.00 2335.6
7 10 87.00 65.00 0.00 35.00 2370.6
7 11 88.00 53.00 0.60 29.50 2400.1
7 12 91.00 56.00 0.00 32.50 2432.6
7 13 92.00 59.00 0.55 34.50 2467.1
7 14 99.00 58.00 0.00 37.50 2504.6
7 15 97.00 57.00 0.30 36.00 2540.6
7 16 99.00 58.00 0.00 37.50 2578.1
7 17 81.00 63.00 0.04 31.00 2609.1
7 18 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 2638.1
7 19 93.00 50.00 0.00 30.50 2668.6
7 20 99.00 57.00 0.00 37.00 2705.6
7 21 98.00 64.00 0.01 40.00 2745.6
7 22 94.00 55.00 0.60 33.50 2779.1
7 23 98.00 57.00 0.00 36.50 2815.6
7 24 88.00 62.00 0.00 34.00 2849.6
7 25 84.00 60.00 0.00 31.00 2880.6
7 26 88.00 49.00 0.00 27.50 2908.1
7 27 88.00 53.00 0.42 29.50 2937.6
7 28 90.50 60.30 0.00 34.40 2972.0 Hx Hn
7 29 93.20 60.90 0.00 36.05 3008.0 Hx Hn
7 30 96.10 62.50 0.00 38.30 3046.3 Hx Hn
7 31 97.20 64.40 0.00 39.80 3086.1 Hx Hn
8 1 95.00 51.00 0.00 32.00 3118.1
8 2 95.00 53.00 0.01 33.00 3151.1
8 3 98.00 58.00 0.04 37.00 3188.1
8 4 82.00 62.00 0.06 31.00 3219.1
8 5 82.00 66.00 0.01 33.00 3252.1
8 6 89.00 66.00 0.01 36.50 3288.6
8 7 84.00 62.00 0.08 32.00 3320.6
8 8 91.00 57.00 0.73 33.00 3353.6
8 9 89.00 56.00 0.00 31.50 3385.1
8 10 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 3414.1
8 11 93.00 53.00 0.23 32.00 3446.1
8 12 95.00 60.00 0.00 36.50 3482.6
8 13 94.00 58.00 0.00 35.00 3517.6
8 14 100.00 57.00 0.47 37.50 3555.1
8 15 109.00 59.00 0.04 43.00 3598.1
8 16 108.00 62.00 0.45 44.00 3642.1
8 17 97.00 62.00 0.00 38.50 3680.6
8 18 92.00 61.00 0.00 35.50 3716.1
8 19 83.00 50.00 0.00 25.50 3741.6
8 20 84.00 49.00 0.50 25.50 3767.1
8 21 80.00 55.00 0.13 26.50 3793.6
8 22 81.00 60.00 0.23 29.50 3823.1
8 23 82.00 47.00 0.00 23.50 3846.6
8 24 84.00 45.00 0.32 23.50 3870.1
8 25 83.00 60.00 0.34 30.50 3900.6
8 26 83.00 54.00 0.01 27.50 3928.1
8 27 95.00 55.00 0.00 34.00 3962.1
8 28 100.00 58.00 0.10 38.00 4000.1
8 29 81.00 60.00 0.00 29.50 4029.6
8 30 84.00 57.00 0.03 29.50 4059.1
8 31 65.00 58.00 0.15 20.50 4079.6
9 1 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 4107.6
9 2 92.00 54.00 0.10 32.00 4139.6
9 3 85.00 67.00 0.00 35.00 4174.6
9 4 80.00 59.00 0.00 28.50 4203.1
9 5 84.00 46.00 0.00 24.00 4227.1
9 6 83.00 45.00 0.00 23.00 4250.1
9 7 84.00 48.00 0.00 25.00 4275.1
9 8 84.00 48.00 0.00 25.00 4300.1
9 9 90.00 46.00 0.24 27.00 4327.1
9 10 95.00 49.00 0.00 31.00 4358.1
9 11 84.70 56.10 0.00 29.40 4387.5 Vx Vn
9 12 86.00 51.50 0.00 27.75 4415.3 Vn
9 13 86.00 51.00 0.01 27.50 4442.8
9 14 84.00 47.00 0.00 24.50 4467.3
9 15 88.00 44.00 0.00 25.00 4492.3
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 AU155 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 AU155 N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-16-23 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-19-23 | 951 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-21-23 | 1019 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-1-23 | 1274 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-2-23 | 2099 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3924783)
