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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 AU155 APRSWXNET N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Lat46.1867 Long:-119.8275 Elev:679
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 20.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 23.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 26.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 28.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 36.00 25.00 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 6 40.00 24.00 0.49 0.00 0.0
1 7 48.00 37.00 0.12 2.57 2.6
1 8 43.00 26.00 0.00 0.29 2.9
1 9 37.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 2.9
1 10 36.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 2.9
1 11 36.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 2.9
1 12 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 6.4
1 13 45.00 27.00 0.05 0.82 7.2
1 14 31.00 27.00 0.01 0.00 7.2
1 15 34.00 30.00 0.01 0.00 7.2
1 16 32.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 7.2
1 17 33.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 7.2
1 18 33.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 7.2
1 19 32.00 28.00 0.01 0.00 7.2
1 20 49.00 30.00 0.01 2.31 9.5
1 21 45.00 26.00 0.01 0.80 10.3
1 22 43.00 21.00 0.01 0.26 10.5
1 23 31.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 10.5
1 24 31.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 10.5
1 25 31.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 10.5
1 26 31.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 10.5
1 27 31.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 10.5
1 28 33.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 10.5
1 29 32.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 10.5
1 30 35.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 10.5
1 31 48.00 25.00 0.00 1.69 12.2
2 1 46.00 19.00 0.00 0.93 13.2
2 2 38.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 13.2
2 3 38.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 13.2
2 4 40.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 13.2
2 5 53.00 24.00 0.00 3.43 16.6
2 6 49.00 33.00 0.00 2.55 19.2 Pn
2 7 58.00 24.00 0.00 5.41 24.6
2 8 51.00 25.00 0.00 2.75 27.3
2 9 65.00 33.00 0.00 9.74 37.1
2 10 66.00 29.00 0.00 9.51 46.6
2 11 56.00 28.00 0.00 4.97 51.5
2 12 53.00 19.00 0.00 3.15 54.7
2 13 51.00 20.00 0.00 2.50 57.2
2 14 54.00 31.00 0.00 4.44 61.6
2 15 57.00 31.00 0.00 5.75 67.4
2 16 58.00 33.00 0.00 6.49 73.9
2 17 44.00 23.00 0.00 0.49 74.3
2 18 61.00 24.00 0.00 6.66 81.0
2 19 58.00 26.00 0.00 5.60 86.6
2 20 52.00 29.00 0.00 3.41 90.0
2 21 46.00 25.00 0.00 1.06 91.1
2 22 26.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 91.1
2 23 30.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 91.1
2 24 31.00 18.00 0.01 0.00 91.1
2 25 35.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 91.1
2 26 39.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 91.1
2 27 56.00 27.00 0.00 4.87 95.9
2 28 66.00 42.00 0.01 13.00 108.9
3 1 68.00 53.00 0.03 19.50 128.4
3 2 56.00 45.00 0.27 9.50 137.9
3 3 56.00 35.00 0.01 5.90 143.9
3 4 55.00 26.00 0.00 4.37 148.2
3 5 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 153.0
3 6 56.00 25.00 0.00 4.69 157.7
3 7 66.00 29.00 0.00 9.51 167.2
3 8 50.00 33.00 0.02 2.96 170.1
3 9 43.00 20.00 0.00 0.25 170.4
3 10 47.00 14.00 0.00 1.11 171.5
3 11 51.00 31.00 0.00 3.18 174.7
3 12 68.00 30.00 0.01 10.59 185.3
3 13 60.00 43.00 0.00 10.50 195.8
3 14 58.00 44.00 0.08 10.00 205.8
3 15 60.00 38.00 0.01 8.48 214.2
3 16 59.00 28.00 0.00 6.25 220.5
3 17 54.00 27.00 0.00 4.05 224.5
3 18 58.00 33.00 0.00 6.49 231.0
3 19 61.00 35.00 0.00 8.25 239.3
3 20 54.00 22.00 0.08 3.68 243.0
3 21 54.00 40.00 0.08 6.11 249.1
3 22 66.00 37.00 0.00 11.14 260.2
3 23 71.00 36.00 0.00 13.31 273.5
3 24 62.00 30.00 0.00 7.84 281.4
3 25 64.00 34.00 0.00 9.47 290.8
3 26 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 304.3
3 27 70.00 40.00 0.15 14.08 318.4
3 28 70.00 51.00 0.15 19.50 337.9
3 29 66.00 43.00 0.00 13.50 351.4
3 30 62.00 39.00 0.00 9.75 361.2
3 31 58.00 28.00 0.00 5.82 367.0
4 1 61.00 28.00 0.07 7.12 374.1
4 2 64.00 39.00 0.07 10.74 384.9
4 3 63.00 35.00 0.19 9.21 394.1
4 4 57.00 35.00 0.93 6.37 400.4
4 5 57.00 32.00 0.00 5.89 406.3
4 6 59.00 24.00 0.00 5.82 412.1
4 7 69.00 30.00 0.00 11.06 423.2
4 8 63.00 39.00 0.02 10.25 433.4
4 9 55.00 35.00 0.02 5.44 438.9
4 10 53.00 30.00 0.93 3.91 442.8
4 11 39.00 30.00 0.29 0.00 442.8
4 12 48.00 31.00 0.03 2.00 444.8
4 13 42.00 28.00 0.15 0.11 444.9
4 14 47.00 26.00 0.15 1.40 446.3
4 15 51.00 25.00 0.11 2.75 449.1
4 16 45.00 30.00 0.09 0.90 450.0
4 17 54.00 26.00 0.00 3.97 453.9
4 18 55.00 38.00 0.08 6.04 460.0
4 19 56.00 37.00 0.00 6.30 466.3
4 20 53.00 29.00 0.64 3.82 470.1
4 21 61.00 39.00 0.18 9.26 479.3
4 22 65.00 31.00 0.00 9.38 488.7
4 23 67.00 35.00 0.00 11.12 499.9
4 24 71.00 33.00 0.00 12.59 512.4
4 25 67.00 41.00 0.00 13.00 525.4
4 26 62.00 42.00 0.00 11.00 536.4
4 27 74.00 37.00 0.00 15.06 551.5 Px
4 28 77.00 39.40 0.00 17.34 568.8 Px Pn
4 29 80.90 46.00 0.00 22.45 591.3 Px Pn
4 30 70.20 45.70 0.00 16.95 608.2 Px Pn
5 1 73.80 31.40 0.00 13.59 621.8 Px Pn
5 2 77.80 46.10 0.00 20.95 642.8 Px Pn
5 3 64.90 39.20 0.00 11.25 654.0 Px Pn
5 4 73.10 30.00 0.00 12.97 667.0 Px Pn
5 5 79.10 39.40 0.00 18.39 685.4 Px Pn
5 6 64.00 46.00 0.00 14.00 699.4 Px Pn
5 7 59.00 33.40 0.00 7.02 706.4 Pn
5 8 62.00 33.00 0.00 8.34 714.7
5 9 60.00 35.00 0.00 7.78 722.5
5 10 67.00 30.00 0.00 10.13 732.7
5 11 68.00 31.00 0.00 10.77 743.4
5 12 61.00 45.00 0.03 12.00 755.4
5 13 61.00 35.00 0.26 8.25 763.7
5 14 72.00 44.00 1.28 17.00 780.7
5 15 76.00 49.00 0.02 21.50 802.2
5 16 74.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 822.2
5 17 73.00 37.00 0.17 14.57 836.8
5 18 67.00 48.00 0.03 16.50 853.3 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 19 64.00 38.00 0.00 10.44 863.7
5 20 72.00 33.00 0.00 13.07 876.8
5 21 70.00 40.00 0.12 14.08 890.8
5 22 75.00 38.00 0.00 15.87 906.7
5 23 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 929.2
5 24 73.00 41.00 0.00 16.00 945.2
5 25 79.00 53.00 0.00 25.00 970.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 26 78.00 49.00 0.18 22.50 992.7
5 27 65.00 51.00 0.01 17.00 1009.7 Peak egg laying
5 28 68.00 39.00 0.05 12.72 1022.4
5 29 69.00 49.00 0.05 18.00 1040.4
5 30 63.00 45.00 0.00 13.00 1053.4
5 31 76.00 52.00 0.00 23.00 1076.4
6 1 82.00 47.00 0.00 23.50 1099.9
6 2 85.00 56.00 0.13 29.50 1129.4
6 3 73.00 52.00 0.13 21.50 1150.9
6 4 74.00 52.00 0.12 22.00 1172.9
6 5 79.00 56.00 0.12 26.50 1199.4
6 6 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 1221.9
6 7 79.00 43.00 0.00 20.00 1241.9
6 8 84.00 59.00 0.00 30.50 1272.4 Peak egg hatch
6 9 84.00 54.00 0.14 28.00 1300.4
6 10 74.00 57.00 0.37 24.50 1324.9
6 11 78.00 57.00 0.06 26.50 1351.4
6 12 69.00 49.00 0.54 18.00 1369.4
6 13 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 1387.4
6 14 73.00 42.00 0.00 16.50 1403.9
6 15 78.00 41.00 0.00 18.50 1422.4
6 16 81.00 56.00 0.00 27.50 1449.9
6 17 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 1476.9
6 18 70.00 50.00 0.07 19.00 1495.9
6 19 78.00 44.00 0.00 20.00 1515.9
6 20 80.00 46.00 0.00 22.00 1537.9
6 21 88.00 48.00 0.00 27.00 1564.9
6 22 92.00 54.00 0.00 32.00 1596.9
6 23 85.00 48.00 0.00 25.50 1622.4
6 24 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 1650.9
6 25 88.00 48.00 0.02 27.00 1677.9
6 26 95.00 49.00 0.02 31.00 1708.9
6 27 101.00 55.00 0.00 37.00 1745.9
6 28 85.00 59.00 10.24 31.00 1776.9
6 29 89.00 49.00 10.24 28.00 1804.9
6 30 90.00 52.00 0.00 30.00 1834.9
7 1 92.00 52.00 0.00 31.00 1865.9
7 2 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 1897.4
7 3 87.00 55.00 0.00 30.00 1927.4
7 4 85.00 56.00 0.00 29.50 1956.9
7 5 86.00 50.00 0.02 27.00 1983.9
7 6 88.00 62.00 0.11 34.00 2017.9
7 7 87.00 61.00 0.11 33.00 2050.9
7 8 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 2082.4 Peak in density large larvae
7 9 89.00 54.00 0.00 30.50 2112.9
7 10 89.00 54.00 0.00 30.50 2143.4
7 11 94.00 53.00 0.00 32.50 2175.9
7 12 100.00 55.00 0.00 36.50 2212.4
7 13 95.00 61.00 0.00 37.00 2249.4
7 14 95.00 51.00 0.00 32.00 2281.4
7 15 97.00 61.00 0.00 38.00 2319.4
7 16 96.00 55.00 0.00 34.50 2353.9
7 17 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 2386.4
7 18 88.00 51.00 0.49 28.50 2414.9
7 19 97.00 51.00 0.49 33.00 2447.9
7 20 102.00 55.00 0.00 37.50 2485.4
7 21 101.00 56.00 0.00 37.50 2522.9
7 22 97.00 65.00 0.00 40.00 2562.9
7 23 95.00 52.00 0.00 32.50 2595.4
7 24 100.00 54.00 0.00 36.00 2631.4
7 25 103.00 56.00 0.00 38.50 2669.9
7 26 105.00 60.00 0.00 41.50 2711.4
7 27 108.00 66.00 0.00 46.00 2757.4
7 28 110.00 65.00 0.00 46.50 2803.9
7 29 111.00 64.00 0.00 46.50 2850.4
7 30 109.00 64.00 0.00 45.50 2895.9
7 31 104.00 66.00 0.00 44.00 2939.9
8 1 97.00 67.00 0.00 41.00 2980.9
8 2 98.00 61.00 0.00 38.50 3019.4
8 3 98.00 54.00 0.00 35.00 3054.4
8 4 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 3084.9
8 5 85.00 48.00 0.00 25.50 3110.4
8 6 92.00 52.00 0.00 31.00 3141.4
8 7 97.00 49.00 0.00 32.00 3173.4
8 8 104.00 51.00 0.00 36.50 3209.9
8 9 87.70 66.00 0.00 35.85 3245.8 Px
8 10 94.80 50.30 0.00 31.55 3277.3 Px Pn
8 11 93.10 55.30 0.00 33.20 3310.5 Px Pn
8 12 82.10 58.50 0.00 29.30 3339.8 Px Pn
8 13 84.90 44.10 0.00 23.50 3363.3 Px Pn
8 14 90.90 46.00 0.00 27.45 3390.8 Px Pn
8 15 96.00 49.10 0.00 31.55 3422.3 Px Pn
8 16 102.10 56.20 0.00 38.15 3460.5 Px Pn
8 17 102.70 63.00 0.00 41.85 3502.3 Px Pn
8 18 101.70 64.00 0.00 41.85 3544.2 Px Pn
8 19 96.80 56.20 0.00 35.50 3579.7 Px Pn
8 20 91.20 63.30 0.00 36.25 3615.9 Px Pn
8 21 91.00 64.30 0.00 36.65 3652.6 Px Pn
8 22 84.30 53.20 0.00 27.75 3680.3 Px Pn
8 23 90.10 46.30 0.00 27.20 3707.5 Px Pn
8 24 91.70 51.30 0.00 30.50 3738.0 Px Pn
8 25 89.70 50.30 0.00 29.00 3767.0 Px Pn
8 26 89.20 47.50 0.00 27.35 3794.4 Px Pn
8 27 89.00 48.60 0.00 27.80 3822.2 Px Pn
8 28 92.10 45.30 0.00 27.70 3849.9 Px Pn
8 29 90.80 48.20 0.00 28.50 3878.4 Px Pn
8 30 79.70 48.40 0.00 23.05 3901.4 Px Pn
8 31 82.80 58.20 0.00 29.50 3930.9 Px Pn
9 1 93.00 52.00 0.00 31.50 3962.4 Px Pn
9 2 96.10 55.10 0.00 34.60 3997.0 Px Pn
9 3 94.20 53.30 0.00 32.75 4029.8 Px Pn
9 4 95.10 52.30 0.00 32.70 4062.5 Px Pn
9 5 95.90 57.10 0.00 35.50 4098.0 Px Pn
9 6 89.00 50.20 0.00 28.60 4126.6 Pn
9 7 95.00 51.00 0.00 32.00 4158.6
9 8 84.00 45.00 0.00 23.50 4182.1
9 9 82.00 48.00 0.00 24.00 4206.1
9 10 85.00 43.00 0.00 23.00 4229.1
9 11 86.00 46.00 0.00 25.00 4254.1
9 12 75.00 52.00 0.00 22.50 4276.6
9 13 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 4299.1
9 14 80.00 52.00 0.00 25.00 4324.1
9 15 80.00 46.00 0.00 22.00 4346.1
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 AU155 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 AU155 N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-18-22 | 853 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-25-22 | 970 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-27-22 | 1010 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-8-22 | 1272 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-8-22 | 2082 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?43377)
