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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 AU155 APRSWXNET N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Lat46.1867 Long:-119.8275 Elev:679
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 47.00 29.00 0.01 1.53 1.5 * START *
1 2 52.00 43.00 0.01 6.50 8.0
1 3 53.00 38.00 0.12 5.08 13.1
1 4 49.00 38.00 0.04 3.18 16.3
1 5 48.00 39.00 0.00 2.91 19.2
1 6 47.00 35.00 0.14 1.91 21.1
1 7 41.00 33.00 0.07 0.00 21.1
1 8 39.00 30.00 0.04 0.00 21.1
1 9 38.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 21.1
1 10 45.00 32.00 0.00 0.97 22.1
1 11 38.00 29.00 0.07 0.00 22.1
1 12 58.00 35.00 0.69 6.84 28.9
1 13 63.00 33.00 0.68 8.80 37.7
1 14 47.00 28.00 0.00 1.48 39.2
1 15 45.00 26.00 0.00 0.80 40.0
1 16 40.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 40.0
1 17 49.00 29.00 0.00 2.25 42.3
1 18 50.00 23.00 0.00 2.29 44.5
1 19 44.00 21.00 0.00 0.47 45.0
1 20 39.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 45.0
1 21 35.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 45.0
1 22 41.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 45.0
1 23 38.00 16.00 0.01 0.00 45.0
1 24 34.00 21.00 0.01 0.00 45.0
1 25 36.00 26.00 0.04 0.00 45.0
1 26 38.00 30.00 0.17 0.00 45.0
1 27 35.00 30.00 0.04 0.00 45.0
1 28 42.00 29.00 0.08 0.12 45.1
1 29 43.00 29.00 0.07 0.33 45.5
1 30 49.00 32.00 0.01 2.46 47.9
1 31 54.00 33.00 0.01 4.69 52.6
2 1 54.00 37.00 0.00 5.34 57.9
2 2 53.00 39.00 0.00 5.33 63.3
2 3 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 65.6
2 4 53.00 26.00 0.00 3.57 69.2
2 5 61.00 37.00 0.00 8.70 77.9
2 6 58.00 30.00 0.00 6.06 83.9
2 7 52.00 26.00 0.00 3.19 87.1
2 8 43.00 21.00 0.00 0.26 87.4
2 9 38.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 87.4
2 10 37.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 87.4
2 11 29.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 87.4
2 12 25.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 87.4
2 13 29.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 87.4
2 14 31.00 12.00 0.01 0.00 87.4
2 15 35.00 19.00 0.01 0.00 87.4
2 16 36.00 17.00 0.17 0.00 87.4
2 17 39.00 13.00 0.04 0.00 87.4
2 18 31.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 87.4
2 19 36.00 21.00 0.04 0.00 87.4
2 20 34.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 87.4
2 21 49.00 31.00 0.01 2.38 89.7
2 22 57.00 42.00 0.00 8.50 98.2
2 23 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 101.7
2 24 50.00 27.00 0.00 2.50 104.2
2 25 54.00 36.00 0.02 5.15 109.4
2 26 51.00 32.00 0.01 3.28 112.7
2 27 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 116.2
2 28 60.00 27.00 0.00 6.56 122.7
3 1 62.00 31.00 0.00 8.00 130.7
3 2 62.00 31.00 0.00 8.00 138.7
3 3 65.00 29.00 0.00 9.05 147.8 Px
3 4 58.90 38.30 0.00 8.02 155.8 Px Pn
3 5 60.00 25.10 0.00 6.35 162.2 Pn
3 6 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 168.8
3 7 54.00 31.00 0.00 4.44 173.3
3 8 51.00 25.00 0.00 2.75 176.0
3 9 55.00 25.00 0.00 4.29 180.3
3 10 55.00 23.00 0.00 4.13 184.4
3 11 58.00 25.00 0.00 5.50 189.9
3 12 61.00 23.00 0.00 6.56 196.5
3 13 63.00 24.00 0.00 7.51 204.0
3 14 58.00 27.00 0.00 5.71 209.7
3 15 49.00 40.00 0.00 3.64 213.3
3 16 59.00 35.00 0.00 7.31 220.6
3 17 60.00 25.00 0.00 6.34 227.0
3 18 66.00 30.00 0.01 9.67 236.7
3 19 61.00 38.00 0.01 8.97 245.6
3 20 59.00 40.00 0.00 8.60 254.2
3 21 55.00 39.00 0.00 6.30 260.5
3 22 57.00 40.00 0.00 7.60 268.1
3 23 60.00 29.00 0.00 6.81 274.9
3 24 56.00 35.00 0.03 5.90 280.8
3 25 60.00 34.00 0.00 7.59 288.4
3 26 65.00 28.00 0.00 8.90 297.3
3 27 65.00 31.00 0.02 9.38 306.7
3 28 70.00 38.00 0.75 13.39 320.1
3 29 55.00 31.00 0.00 4.87 325.0
3 30 57.00 22.00 0.00 4.84 329.8
3 31 63.00 25.00 0.00 7.62 337.4
4 1 75.00 30.00 0.00 13.87 351.3
4 2 72.00 33.00 0.00 13.07 364.4
4 3 66.00 37.00 0.00 11.14 375.5
4 4 64.00 35.00 0.00 9.68 385.2
4 5 63.00 36.00 0.00 9.43 394.6
4 6 67.00 27.00 0.00 9.65 404.3
4 7 62.00 30.00 0.00 7.84 412.1
4 8 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 418.8
4 9 68.00 26.00 0.01 9.96 428.7
4 10 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 433.9
4 11 56.00 23.00 0.00 4.52 438.4
4 12 61.00 23.00 0.00 6.56 445.0
4 13 61.00 38.00 0.00 8.97 453.9
4 14 68.00 39.00 0.00 12.72 466.7
4 15 72.00 40.00 0.00 15.07 481.7
4 16 74.00 33.00 0.00 14.03 495.8
4 17 80.00 33.00 0.00 16.93 512.7
4 18 72.00 36.00 0.00 13.80 526.5 Px
4 19 65.00 38.00 0.00 10.93 537.4
4 20 67.00 29.00 0.00 9.96 547.4
4 21 75.00 29.00 0.00 13.68 561.1
4 22 76.00 40.00 0.00 17.07 578.1
4 23 68.00 36.00 0.00 11.85 590.0
4 24 62.00 50.00 0.00 15.00 605.0
4 25 66.00 39.00 0.02 11.73 616.7
4 26 70.00 35.00 0.00 12.57 629.3
4 27 73.00 35.00 0.00 14.03 643.3
4 28 79.00 41.00 0.00 19.00 662.3
4 29 87.00 48.00 0.00 26.50 688.8
4 30 82.00 47.00 0.00 23.50 712.3
5 1 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 734.8
5 2 71.00 40.00 0.00 14.58 749.4
5 3 75.00 38.00 0.00 15.87 765.3
5 4 75.00 41.00 0.00 17.00 782.3
5 5 78.00 37.00 0.00 17.04 799.3
5 6 84.00 42.00 0.01 22.00 821.3
5 7 63.00 39.00 0.00 10.25 831.5
5 8 66.00 33.00 0.00 10.22 841.8
5 9 71.00 35.00 0.00 13.06 854.8 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 10 76.00 38.00 0.00 16.36 871.2
5 11 79.00 44.00 0.00 20.50 891.7
5 12 84.00 44.00 0.00 23.00 914.7
5 13 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 937.7
5 14 87.00 49.00 0.00 27.00 964.7 Peak female adult emergence
5 15 87.00 51.00 0.00 28.00 992.7
5 16 91.00 46.00 0.00 27.50 1020.2 Peak egg laying
5 17 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 1047.2
5 18 69.00 49.00 0.00 18.00 1065.2
5 19 68.00 43.00 0.00 14.50 1079.7
5 20 66.00 42.00 0.00 13.00 1092.7
5 21 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 1110.7
5 22 64.00 42.00 0.00 12.00 1122.7
5 23 79.00 36.00 0.00 17.23 1139.9
5 24 76.00 47.00 0.00 20.50 1160.4
5 25 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 1181.9
5 26 81.00 42.00 0.00 20.50 1202.4
5 27 74.00 49.00 0.09 20.50 1222.9
5 28 75.00 45.00 0.00 19.00 1241.9
5 29 80.00 38.00 0.00 18.34 1260.2
5 30 86.00 41.00 0.00 22.50 1282.7 Peak egg hatch
5 31 93.00 47.00 0.00 29.00 1311.7
6 1 98.00 55.00 0.00 35.50 1347.2
6 2 102.00 55.00 0.00 37.50 1384.7
6 3 97.00 66.00 0.00 40.50 1425.2
6 4 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 1458.7
6 5 72.00 51.00 0.00 20.50 1479.2
6 6 67.00 42.00 0.00 13.50 1492.7
6 7 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 1510.7
6 8 77.00 44.00 0.00 19.50 1530.2
6 9 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1552.7
6 10 77.00 48.00 0.36 21.50 1574.2
6 11 73.00 51.00 0.36 21.00 1595.2
6 12 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 1623.7
6 13 92.00 60.00 0.00 35.00 1658.7
6 14 85.00 61.00 0.17 32.00 1690.7
6 15 75.00 56.00 0.03 24.50 1715.2
6 16 81.00 42.00 0.00 20.50 1735.7
6 17 91.00 45.00 0.00 27.00 1762.7
6 18 95.00 49.00 0.00 31.00 1793.7
6 19 94.00 61.00 0.00 36.50 1830.2
6 20 91.00 63.00 0.00 36.00 1866.2
6 21 97.00 56.00 0.00 35.50 1901.7
6 22 99.00 64.00 0.00 40.50 1942.2
6 23 98.00 68.00 0.00 42.00 1984.2
6 24 98.00 55.00 0.00 35.50 2019.7
6 25 98.00 70.00 0.00 43.00 2062.7
6 26 105.00 64.00 0.53 43.50 2106.2 Peak in density large larvae
6 27 110.00 67.00 0.00 47.50 2153.7
6 28 112.00 66.00 0.00 48.00 2201.7
6 29 115.00 68.00 0.00 50.50 2252.2
6 30 109.00 71.00 0.17 49.00 2301.2
7 1 98.00 71.00 0.05 43.50 2344.7
7 2 97.00 62.00 0.00 38.50 2383.2
7 3 100.00 60.00 0.00 39.00 2422.2
7 4 100.00 61.00 0.00 39.50 2461.7
7 5 100.00 58.00 0.00 38.00 2499.7
7 6 101.00 58.00 0.00 38.50 2538.2
7 7 98.00 65.00 0.00 40.50 2578.7
7 8 94.00 55.00 0.00 33.50 2612.2
7 9 95.00 57.00 0.00 35.00 2647.2
7 10 101.00 55.00 0.00 37.00 2684.2
7 11 100.00 65.00 0.00 41.50 2725.7
7 12 102.00 57.00 0.00 38.50 2764.2
7 13 104.00 66.00 0.00 44.00 2808.2
7 14 103.00 64.00 0.00 42.50 2850.7
7 15 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 2889.2
7 16 92.00 57.00 0.00 33.50 2922.7
7 17 92.00 57.00 0.00 33.50 2956.2
7 18 97.00 61.00 0.00 38.00 2994.2
7 19 97.00 58.00 0.00 36.50 3030.7
7 20 95.00 67.00 0.00 40.00 3070.7
7 21 87.00 61.00 0.00 33.00 3103.7
7 22 88.00 47.00 0.00 26.50 3130.2
7 23 94.00 50.00 0.00 31.00 3161.2
7 24 97.00 54.00 0.00 34.50 3195.7
7 25 100.00 57.00 0.00 37.50 3233.2
7 26 97.00 57.00 0.00 36.00 3269.2
7 27 84.00 64.00 0.00 33.00 3302.2
7 28 96.00 56.00 0.00 35.00 3337.2
7 29 102.00 60.00 0.00 40.00 3377.2
7 30 103.00 65.00 0.00 43.00 3420.2
7 31 99.00 70.00 0.01 43.50 3463.7
8 1 95.00 72.00 0.01 42.50 3506.2
8 2 101.00 66.00 0.00 42.50 3548.7
8 3 101.00 63.00 0.00 41.00 3589.7
8 4 101.00 64.00 0.00 41.50 3631.2
8 5 93.00 62.00 0.00 36.50 3667.7
8 6 93.00 58.00 0.00 34.50 3702.2
8 7 94.00 56.00 0.00 34.00 3736.2
8 8 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 3764.7
8 9 88.00 48.00 0.00 27.00 3791.7
8 10 96.00 53.00 0.00 33.50 3825.2
8 11 105.00 60.00 0.00 41.50 3866.7
8 12 101.00 64.00 0.00 41.50 3908.2
8 13 97.00 61.00 0.00 38.00 3946.2
8 14 102.00 60.00 0.00 40.00 3986.2
8 15 103.00 63.00 0.00 42.00 4028.2
8 16 100.00 59.00 0.00 38.50 4066.7
8 17 77.00 58.00 0.00 26.50 4093.2
8 18 85.00 54.00 0.00 28.50 4121.7
8 19 87.00 50.00 0.00 27.50 4149.2
8 20 82.00 58.00 0.02 29.00 4178.2
8 21 80.00 57.00 0.02 27.50 4205.7
8 22 82.00 49.00 0.09 24.50 4230.2
8 23 77.00 41.00 0.00 18.00 4248.2
8 24 82.00 42.00 0.00 21.00 4269.2
8 25 85.00 44.00 0.00 23.50 4292.7
8 26 81.00 51.00 0.00 25.00 4317.7
8 27 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 4344.7
8 28 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 4370.7
8 29 90.00 46.00 0.00 27.00 4397.7
8 30 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 4423.7
8 31 77.00 40.00 0.00 17.57 4441.3
9 1 77.00 39.00 0.00 17.20 4458.5
9 2 81.00 42.00 0.00 20.50 4479.0
9 3 86.00 42.00 0.00 23.00 4502.0
9 4 88.00 44.00 0.00 25.00 4527.0
9 5 94.00 52.00 0.00 32.00 4559.0
9 6 88.00 54.00 0.00 30.00 4589.0
9 7 84.00 48.00 0.00 25.00 4614.0
9 8 94.00 54.00 0.00 33.00 4647.0
9 9 87.00 51.00 0.03 28.00 4675.0
9 10 65.00 58.00 0.32 20.50 4695.5
9 11 78.00 48.00 0.00 22.00 4717.5
9 12 83.00 53.00 0.00 27.00 4744.5
9 13 78.00 48.00 0.00 22.00 4766.5
9 14 82.00 43.00 0.00 21.50 4788.0
9 15 79.00 53.00 0.00 25.00 4813.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 AU155 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 AU155 N7QNM-10 Prosser WA Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-9-21 | 855 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-14-21 | 965 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-16-21 | 1020 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-30-21 | 1283 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-26-21 | 2106 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?40557)
