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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 47.50 35.20 0.00 2.14 2.1 * START *
1 2 46.50 30.20 0.03 1.41 3.5
1 3 46.30 38.70 0.10 2.06 5.6
1 4 52.50 37.50 0.21 4.74 10.3
1 5 59.80 48.70 0.14 13.25 23.6
1 6 55.60 36.90 0.04 6.08 29.7
1 7 51.70 42.50 0.10 6.10 35.8
1 8 51.90 42.90 0.50 6.40 42.2
1 9 54.90 41.50 0.21 7.20 49.4
1 10 53.40 38.00 0.02 5.27 54.6
1 11 53.70 43.00 0.35 7.35 62.0
1 12 55.10 45.00 0.27 9.05 71.0
1 13 54.10 46.80 0.23 9.45 80.5
1 14 53.40 42.80 0.25 7.10 87.6
1 15 53.20 44.90 0.32 8.05 95.6
1 16 49.90 35.50 0.00 3.21 98.8
1 17 49.00 42.70 0.04 4.85 103.7
1 18 48.90 36.00 0.25 2.83 106.5
1 19 42.30 32.60 0.00 0.20 106.7
1 20 40.10 29.70 0.01 0.00 106.7
1 21 44.70 32.80 0.09 0.91 107.6
1 22 44.20 29.90 0.01 0.66 108.3
1 23 48.40 34.20 0.00 2.41 110.7
1 24 47.20 30.40 0.00 1.67 112.4
1 25 42.90 33.80 0.00 0.38 112.8
1 26 44.30 41.20 0.00 1.75 114.5
1 27 51.00 40.00 0.00 4.63 119.1
1 28 45.40 38.50 0.03 1.62 120.7
1 29 38.00 28.30 0.00 0.00 120.7
1 30 40.50 24.30 0.00 0.00 120.7
1 31 41.20 23.70 0.00 0.01 120.8
2 1 49.00 24.50 0.00 2.01 122.8
2 2 47.40 24.60 0.00 1.48 124.2
2 3 52.00 32.00 0.17 3.70 127.9
2 4 51.60 42.10 0.11 5.85 133.8
2 5 49.40 39.90 0.28 3.81 137.6
2 6 48.80 39.10 0.01 3.31 140.9
2 7 49.80 39.70 0.22 3.95 144.9
2 8 50.70 32.50 0.00 3.20 148.1
2 9 56.40 30.80 0.02 5.46 153.5
2 10 54.30 43.40 0.05 7.85 161.4
2 11 50.40 34.00 0.00 3.24 164.6
2 12 43.20 29.60 0.01 0.38 165.0
2 13 46.20 33.30 0.07 1.47 166.5
2 14 41.40 32.90 0.10 0.04 166.5
2 15 47.00 25.80 0.00 1.40 167.9
2 16 45.40 28.50 0.00 0.98 168.9
2 17 51.50 35.40 0.00 3.91 172.8
2 18 52.60 41.30 0.00 5.95 178.7
2 19 49.80 40.20 0.00 4.10 182.8
2 20 51.70 44.00 0.00 6.85 189.7
2 21 48.50 36.30 0.14 2.69 192.4
2 22 39.40 31.90 0.44 0.00 192.4
2 23 33.30 25.40 0.14 0.00 192.4
2 24 35.80 23.60 0.00 0.00 192.4
2 25 44.00 21.00 0.00 0.47 192.8
2 26 41.10 32.50 0.44 0.00 192.9
2 27 46.60 34.00 0.07 1.67 194.5
2 28 41.80 32.20 0.41 0.10 194.6
3 1 45.80 29.40 0.00 1.14 195.8
3 2 46.60 36.90 0.06 1.94 197.7
3 3 45.90 34.90 0.10 1.46 199.2
3 4 45.00 36.70 0.07 1.25 200.4
3 5 42.00 30.90 0.03 0.13 200.5
3 6 50.40 34.50 0.10 3.30 203.8
3 7 48.40 33.80 0.17 2.37 206.2
3 8 47.20 31.60 0.06 1.74 207.9
3 9 46.60 38.20 0.35 2.11 210.1
3 10 46.60 36.60 0.20 1.90 212.0
3 11 53.80 35.00 0.03 4.89 216.8
3 12 49.30 31.10 0.22 2.51 219.4
3 13 50.10 39.20 1.35 3.97 223.3
3 14 52.50 32.20 0.00 3.93 227.3
3 15 52.50 37.80 0.02 4.80 232.0
3 16 61.70 34.60 0.00 8.50 240.6
3 17 61.80 31.60 0.00 8.00 248.6
3 18 65.90 34.20 0.00 10.42 259.0
3 19 52.70 43.10 0.25 6.90 265.9
3 20 48.50 40.50 0.03 3.55 269.4
3 21 62.70 37.60 0.00 9.69 279.1
3 22 61.10 42.00 0.00 10.55 289.7
3 23 47.30 38.60 0.29 2.50 292.2
3 24 46.00 33.80 0.49 1.42 293.6
3 25 47.80 32.00 0.40 1.99 295.6
3 26 49.70 34.10 0.00 2.95 298.5
3 27 54.80 30.80 0.03 4.76 303.3
3 28 46.30 37.30 0.93 1.86 305.1
3 29 54.80 33.10 0.00 5.06 310.2
3 30 53.60 39.80 0.00 5.85 316.1
3 31 49.10 43.30 0.09 5.20 321.3
4 1 47.90 37.90 0.05 2.66 323.9 Px Pn
4 2 45.10 36.10 0.28 1.24 325.1
4 3 47.90 34.80 0.09 2.26 327.4
4 4 48.20 36.90 0.05 2.64 330.1
4 5 52.00 34.50 0.06 4.00 334.1
4 6 57.10 44.90 0.64 10.00 344.1
4 7 55.90 44.50 0.48 9.20 353.3
4 8 56.60 43.60 0.00 9.10 362.4
4 9 56.50 47.80 0.51 11.15 373.5
4 10 51.60 41.70 1.67 5.65 379.2
4 11 53.00 39.80 0.16 5.55 384.7
4 12 50.60 36.40 0.10 3.65 388.4
4 13 53.00 33.50 0.00 4.31 392.7
4 14 59.20 34.50 0.00 7.31 400.0
4 15 55.60 36.90 0.00 6.08 406.1
4 16 52.10 43.60 0.19 6.85 412.9
4 17 51.40 37.80 0.18 4.28 417.2
4 18 49.80 36.60 0.29 3.32 420.5
4 19 48.80 38.70 0.15 3.23 423.7
4 20 48.00 33.40 0.38 2.18 425.9
4 21 55.40 43.90 0.00 8.65 434.6
4 22 67.00 49.40 0.22 17.20 451.8
4 23 56.00 47.50 0.05 10.75 462.5
4 24 58.10 45.10 0.03 10.60 473.1
4 25 66.10 40.90 0.00 12.50 485.6
4 26 75.70 44.30 0.00 19.00 504.6
4 27 79.10 49.00 0.00 23.05 527.7
4 28 89.80 58.60 0.00 33.20 560.9
4 29 79.10 52.10 0.00 24.60 585.5
4 30 62.10 51.20 0.00 15.65 601.1
5 1 59.00 49.50 0.00 13.25 614.4
5 2 62.30 50.10 0.00 15.20 629.6
5 3 70.00 46.50 0.14 17.25 646.8
5 4 53.60 45.00 0.46 8.30 655.1
5 5 57.80 48.20 0.00 12.00 667.1
5 6 63.60 46.30 0.00 13.95 681.1
5 7 64.30 47.10 0.00 14.70 695.8
5 8 62.10 44.80 0.20 12.45 708.2
5 9 65.10 41.90 0.00 12.50 720.7
5 10 73.70 42.60 0.00 17.15 737.9
5 11 76.50 47.40 0.00 20.95 758.8
5 12 86.10 49.10 0.00 26.60 785.4
5 13 90.50 62.70 0.00 35.60 821.0
5 14 90.10 64.40 0.00 36.25 857.3 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 15 85.90 62.80 0.00 33.35 890.6
5 16 82.60 58.00 0.00 29.30 919.9
5 17 89.70 56.40 0.00 32.05 952.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 18 78.70 56.40 0.00 26.55 978.5
5 19 84.40 54.90 0.00 28.65 1007.2 Peak egg laying
5 20 82.40 54.30 0.00 27.35 1034.5
5 21 64.80 49.90 0.00 16.35 1050.9
5 22 64.50 48.90 0.00 15.70 1066.6
5 23 64.30 49.30 0.00 15.80 1082.4
5 24 73.00 45.60 0.00 18.30 1100.7
5 25 81.50 46.40 0.00 22.95 1123.6
5 26 84.80 53.20 0.00 28.00 1151.6
5 27 73.60 52.80 0.00 22.20 1173.8
5 28 71.20 46.70 0.00 17.95 1191.8
5 29 78.70 48.90 0.00 22.80 1214.6
5 30 66.70 45.40 0.00 15.05 1229.6
5 31 64.90 45.80 0.00 14.35 1244.0
6 1 71.10 40.00 0.00 14.63 1258.6
6 2 76.60 42.70 0.00 18.65 1277.2 Peak egg hatch
6 3 79.90 47.70 0.00 22.80 1300.0
6 4 75.60 46.80 0.00 20.20 1320.2
6 5 81.20 46.50 0.00 22.85 1343.1
6 6 92.30 48.70 0.00 29.50 1372.6
6 7 80.80 55.00 0.00 26.90 1399.5
6 8 69.40 52.20 0.00 19.80 1419.3
6 9 60.50 53.90 0.03 16.20 1435.5
6 10 71.50 51.10 0.01 20.30 1455.8
6 11 78.70 53.20 0.00 24.95 1480.7
6 12 89.00 52.60 0.00 29.80 1510.5
6 13 75.00 55.10 0.00 24.05 1534.6
6 14 67.80 52.10 0.00 18.95 1553.5
6 15 76.30 46.40 0.00 20.35 1573.9
6 16 79.60 48.90 0.00 23.25 1597.1
6 17 66.40 55.00 0.00 19.70 1616.8
6 18 56.70 47.20 0.54 10.95 1627.8
6 19 60.10 45.00 0.27 11.55 1639.3
6 20 66.80 50.70 0.00 17.75 1657.1
6 21 76.10 46.30 0.00 20.20 1677.3
6 22 86.10 56.80 0.00 30.45 1707.7
6 23 79.50 55.30 0.00 26.40 1734.1
6 24 80.90 49.90 0.00 24.40 1758.5
6 25 82.70 53.60 0.00 27.15 1785.7
6 26 81.30 52.90 0.00 26.10 1811.8
6 27 81.00 53.40 0.00 26.20 1838.0
6 28 86.10 55.00 0.00 29.55 1867.5
6 29 88.30 56.60 0.00 31.45 1899.0
6 30 85.90 58.80 0.00 31.35 1930.3
7 1 83.30 50.10 0.00 25.70 1956.0
7 2 85.30 54.60 0.00 28.95 1985.0
7 3 88.00 51.80 0.00 28.90 2013.9
7 4 93.60 55.30 0.00 33.45 2047.3
7 5 96.40 57.50 0.00 35.95 2083.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 6 88.90 56.40 0.00 31.65 2114.9
7 7 78.50 52.60 0.00 24.55 2139.5
7 8 76.40 53.90 0.00 24.15 2163.6
7 9 82.90 52.50 0.00 26.70 2190.3
7 10 71.30 53.70 0.00 21.50 2211.8
7 11 82.60 58.10 0.00 29.35 2241.2
7 12 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2270.9
7 13 86.00 56.10 0.00 30.05 2300.9
7 14 91.60 60.80 0.00 35.20 2336.1
7 15 95.90 59.40 0.00 36.65 2372.8
7 16 91.20 57.20 0.00 33.20 2406.0
7 17 78.60 57.00 0.00 26.80 2432.8
7 18 85.90 55.20 0.00 29.55 2462.3
7 19 95.10 56.90 0.00 35.00 2497.3
7 20 84.70 58.40 0.00 30.55 2527.9
7 21 87.60 56.80 0.00 31.20 2559.1
7 22 88.50 56.50 0.00 31.50 2590.6
7 23 87.10 60.70 0.00 32.90 2623.5
7 24 76.70 52.90 0.00 23.80 2647.3
7 25 78.80 61.50 0.01 29.15 2676.4
7 26 82.60 54.30 0.00 27.45 2703.9
7 27 82.50 52.10 0.00 26.30 2730.2
7 28 86.50 56.30 0.00 30.40 2760.6 Hx Hn
7 29 80.90 54.50 0.00 26.70 2787.3
7 30 80.50 56.70 0.00 27.60 2814.9
7 31 83.50 51.50 0.00 26.50 2841.4
8 1 87.50 53.00 0.00 29.25 2870.6
8 2 88.90 54.10 0.00 30.50 2901.1
8 3 87.40 55.20 0.00 30.30 2931.4
8 4 86.40 57.00 0.00 30.70 2962.1
8 5 80.60 65.60 0.00 32.10 2994.2
8 6 80.50 63.50 0.01 31.00 3025.2
8 7 84.10 62.20 0.00 32.15 3057.4
8 8 87.60 58.60 0.00 32.10 3089.5
8 9 82.40 58.40 0.00 29.40 3118.9
8 10 79.90 62.70 0.00 30.30 3149.2
8 11 84.80 54.60 0.00 28.70 3177.9
8 12 88.90 56.20 0.00 31.55 3209.4
8 13 100.00 63.20 0.00 40.60 3250.0
8 14 105.40 72.50 0.00 47.95 3298.0
8 15 100.10 67.00 0.00 42.55 3340.5
8 16 102.70 66.00 0.00 43.35 3383.9
8 17 90.60 68.60 0.00 38.60 3422.5
8 18 82.70 57.50 0.00 29.10 3451.6
8 19 89.10 50.30 0.00 28.70 3480.3
8 20 86.80 54.60 0.00 29.70 3510.0
8 21 80.30 54.40 0.00 26.35 3536.3
8 22 76.30 54.20 0.00 24.25 3560.6
8 23 77.00 51.60 0.00 23.30 3583.9
8 24 91.60 53.20 0.02 31.40 3615.3
8 25 92.10 61.10 0.11 35.60 3650.9
8 26 87.20 58.10 0.00 31.65 3682.5
8 27 81.80 57.50 0.00 28.65 3711.2
8 28 69.90 59.00 0.00 23.45 3734.6
8 29 74.10 61.30 0.00 26.70 3761.3
8 30 78.30 60.50 0.00 28.40 3789.7
8 31 65.50 58.90 0.75 21.20 3810.9
9 1 78.80 59.60 0.00 28.20 3839.1
9 2 86.00 62.30 0.47 33.15 3872.3
9 3 71.30 59.40 0.04 24.35 3896.6
9 4 67.00 57.40 0.02 21.20 3917.8
9 5 72.20 52.90 0.00 21.55 3939.4
9 6 76.80 48.10 0.00 21.45 3960.8
9 7 74.00 58.10 0.00 25.05 3985.9
9 8 78.20 51.80 0.00 24.00 4009.9
9 9 85.00 51.40 0.00 27.20 4037.1
9 10 81.30 53.00 0.00 26.15 4063.2
9 11 88.50 55.30 0.00 30.90 4094.1 Vx Vn
9 12 77.60 52.90 0.00 24.25 4118.4 Vn
9 13 80.00 61.00 0.00 29.50 4147.9
9 14 87.90 52.00 0.00 28.95 4176.8
9 15 92.60 52.10 0.00 31.35 4208.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 ARAO AURORA OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-14-23 | 857 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-17-23 | 952 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-19-23 | 1007 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-2-23 | 1277 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-5-23 | 2083 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1015326)
