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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 47.50 35.20 0.00 2.14 2.1 * START *
1 2 46.50 30.20 0.03 1.41 3.5
1 3 46.30 38.70 0.10 2.06 5.6
1 4 52.50 37.50 0.21 4.74 10.3
1 5 59.80 48.70 0.14 13.25 23.6
1 6 55.60 36.90 0.04 6.08 29.7
1 7 51.70 42.50 0.10 6.10 35.8
1 8 51.90 42.90 0.50 6.40 42.2
1 9 54.90 41.50 0.21 7.20 49.4
1 10 53.40 38.00 0.02 5.27 54.6
1 11 53.70 43.00 0.35 7.35 62.0
1 12 55.10 45.00 0.27 9.05 71.0
1 13 54.10 46.80 0.23 9.45 80.5
1 14 53.40 42.80 0.25 7.10 87.6
1 15 53.20 44.90 0.32 8.05 95.6
1 16 49.90 35.50 0.00 3.21 98.8
1 17 49.00 42.70 0.04 4.85 103.7
1 18 48.90 36.00 0.25 2.83 106.5
1 19 42.30 32.60 0.00 0.20 106.7
1 20 40.10 29.70 0.01 0.00 106.7
1 21 44.70 32.80 0.09 0.91 107.6
1 22 44.20 29.90 0.01 0.66 108.3
1 23 48.40 34.20 0.00 2.41 110.7
1 24 47.20 30.40 0.00 1.67 112.4
1 25 42.90 33.80 0.00 0.38 112.8
1 26 44.30 41.20 0.00 1.75 114.5
1 27 51.00 40.00 0.00 4.63 119.1
1 28 45.40 38.50 0.03 1.62 120.7
1 29 38.00 28.30 0.00 0.00 120.7
1 30 40.50 24.30 0.00 0.00 120.7
1 31 41.20 23.70 0.00 0.01 120.8
2 1 49.00 24.50 0.00 2.01 122.8
2 2 47.40 24.60 0.00 1.48 124.2
2 3 52.00 32.00 0.17 3.70 127.9
2 4 51.60 42.10 0.11 5.85 133.8
2 5 49.40 39.90 0.28 3.81 137.6
2 6 48.80 39.10 0.01 3.31 140.9
2 7 49.80 39.70 0.22 3.95 144.9
2 8 50.70 32.50 0.00 3.20 148.1
2 9 56.40 30.80 0.02 5.46 153.5
2 10 54.30 43.40 0.05 7.85 161.4
2 11 50.40 34.00 0.00 3.24 164.6
2 12 43.20 29.60 0.01 0.38 165.0
2 13 46.20 33.30 0.07 1.47 166.5
2 14 41.40 32.90 0.10 0.04 166.5
2 15 47.00 25.80 0.00 1.40 167.9
2 16 45.40 28.50 0.00 0.98 168.9
2 17 51.50 35.40 0.00 3.91 172.8
2 18 52.60 41.30 0.00 5.95 178.7
2 19 49.80 40.20 0.00 4.10 182.8
2 20 51.70 44.00 0.00 6.85 189.7
2 21 48.50 36.30 0.14 2.69 192.4
2 22 39.40 31.90 0.44 0.00 192.4
2 23 33.30 25.40 0.14 0.00 192.4
2 24 35.80 23.60 0.00 0.00 192.4
2 25 44.00 21.00 0.00 0.47 192.8
2 26 41.10 32.50 0.44 0.00 192.9
2 27 46.60 34.00 0.07 1.67 194.5
2 28 41.80 32.20 0.41 0.10 194.6
3 1 45.80 29.40 0.00 1.14 195.8
3 2 46.60 36.90 0.06 1.94 197.7
3 3 45.90 34.90 0.10 1.46 199.2
3 4 45.00 36.70 0.07 1.25 200.4
3 5 42.00 30.90 0.03 0.13 200.5
3 6 50.40 34.50 0.10 3.30 203.8
3 7 48.40 33.80 0.17 2.37 206.2
3 8 47.20 31.60 0.06 1.74 207.9
3 9 46.60 38.20 0.35 2.11 210.1
3 10 46.60 36.60 0.20 1.90 212.0
3 11 53.80 35.00 0.03 4.89 216.8
3 12 49.30 31.10 0.22 2.51 219.4
3 13 50.10 39.20 1.35 3.97 223.3
3 14 52.50 32.20 0.00 3.93 227.3
3 15 52.50 37.80 0.02 4.80 232.0
3 16 61.70 34.60 0.00 8.50 240.6
3 17 61.80 31.60 0.00 8.00 248.6
3 18 65.90 34.20 0.00 10.42 259.0
3 19 52.70 43.10 0.25 6.90 265.9
3 20 48.50 40.50 0.03 3.55 269.4
3 21 62.70 37.60 0.00 9.69 279.1
3 22 61.10 42.00 0.00 10.55 289.7
3 23 47.30 38.60 0.29 2.50 292.2
3 24 46.00 33.80 0.49 1.42 293.6
3 25 47.80 32.00 0.40 1.99 295.6
3 26 49.70 34.10 0.00 2.95 298.5
3 27 54.80 30.80 0.03 4.76 303.3
3 28 46.30 37.30 0.93 1.86 305.1
3 29 54.80 33.10 0.00 5.06 310.2
3 30 53.60 39.80 0.00 5.85 316.1
3 31 49.10 43.30 0.09 5.20 321.3
4 1 47.90 37.90 0.05 2.66 323.9 Px Pn
4 2 45.10 36.10 0.28 1.24 325.1
4 3 47.90 34.80 0.09 2.26 327.4
4 4 48.20 36.90 0.05 2.64 330.1
4 5 52.00 34.50 0.06 4.00 334.1
4 6 57.10 44.90 0.64 10.00 344.1
4 7 55.90 44.50 0.48 9.20 353.3
4 8 56.60 43.60 0.00 9.10 362.4
4 9 56.50 47.80 0.51 11.15 373.5
4 10 51.60 41.70 1.67 5.65 379.2
4 11 53.00 39.80 0.16 5.55 384.7
4 12 50.60 36.40 0.10 3.65 388.4
4 13 53.00 33.50 0.00 4.31 392.7
4 14 59.20 34.50 0.00 7.31 400.0
4 15 55.60 36.90 0.00 6.08 406.1
4 16 52.10 43.60 0.19 6.85 412.9
4 17 51.40 37.80 0.18 4.28 417.2
4 18 49.80 36.60 0.29 3.32 420.5
4 19 48.80 38.70 0.15 3.23 423.7
4 20 48.00 33.40 0.38 2.18 425.9
4 21 55.40 43.90 0.00 8.65 434.6
4 22 67.00 49.40 0.22 17.20 451.8
4 23 56.00 47.50 0.05 10.75 462.5
4 24 58.10 45.10 0.03 10.60 473.1
4 25 66.10 40.90 0.00 12.50 485.6
4 26 75.70 44.30 0.00 19.00 504.6
4 27 79.10 49.00 0.00 23.05 527.7
4 28 89.80 58.60 0.00 33.20 560.9
4 29 79.10 52.10 0.00 24.60 585.5
4 30 62.10 51.20 0.00 15.65 601.1
5 1 59.00 49.50 0.00 13.25 614.4
5 2 62.30 50.10 0.00 15.20 629.6
5 3 70.00 46.50 0.14 17.25 646.8
5 4 53.60 45.00 0.46 8.30 655.1
5 5 57.80 48.20 0.00 12.00 667.1
5 6 63.60 46.30 0.00 13.95 681.1
5 7 64.30 47.10 0.00 14.70 695.8
5 8 62.10 44.80 0.20 12.45 708.2
5 9 65.10 41.90 0.00 12.50 720.7
5 10 73.70 42.60 0.00 17.15 737.9
5 11 76.50 47.40 0.00 20.95 758.8
5 12 86.10 49.10 0.00 26.60 785.4
5 13 90.50 62.70 0.00 35.60 821.0
5 14 90.10 64.40 0.00 36.25 857.3 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 15 85.90 62.80 0.00 33.35 890.6
5 16 82.60 58.00 0.00 29.30 919.9
5 17 89.70 56.40 0.00 32.05 952.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 18 78.70 56.40 0.00 26.55 978.5
5 19 84.40 54.90 0.00 28.65 1007.2 Peak egg laying
5 20 82.40 54.30 0.00 27.35 1034.5
5 21 64.80 49.90 0.00 16.35 1050.9
5 22 64.50 48.90 0.00 15.70 1066.6
5 23 64.30 49.30 0.00 15.80 1082.4
5 24 73.00 45.60 0.00 18.30 1100.7
5 25 81.50 46.40 0.00 22.95 1123.6
5 26 84.80 53.20 0.00 28.00 1151.6
5 27 73.60 52.80 0.00 22.20 1173.8
5 28 71.20 46.70 0.00 17.95 1191.8
5 29 78.70 48.90 0.00 22.80 1214.6
5 30 66.70 45.40 0.00 15.05 1229.6
5 31 64.90 45.80 0.00 14.35 1244.0
6 1 71.10 40.00 0.00 14.63 1258.6
6 2 76.60 42.70 0.00 18.65 1277.2 Peak egg hatch
6 3 79.90 47.70 0.00 22.80 1300.0
6 4 75.60 46.80 0.00 20.20 1320.2
6 5 81.20 46.50 0.00 22.85 1343.1
DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1343.
QA 99% ok
| |
| This year is about | versus | QA |
| 8 days ahead | 2022 | ok |
| 4 days behind | 2021 | ok |
| 1 day ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
6 6 83.00 52.00 0.00 26.50 1369.6 Sunny
6 7 93.00 57.00 0.00 34.00 1403.6 Mostly_Sunny
6 8 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 1434.1 Partly_Cloudy
6 9 83.00 55.00 0.00 28.00 1462.1 Partly_Cloudy_4%_precip
6 10 78.00 55.00 0.00 25.50 1487.6 Partly_Cloudy_8%_precip
6 11 78.00 54.00 0.00 25.00 1512.6 Partly_Cloudy_10%_precip
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
6 12 73.90 51.70 0.02 21.80 1534.4 *hist_fcst*
6 13 71.60 51.30 0.12 20.45 1554.8 *hist_fcst*
6 14 68.00 50.80 0.14 18.40 1573.2 *hist_fcst*
6 15 69.60 49.70 0.07 18.65 1591.9 *hist_fcst*
6 16 71.30 50.30 0.08 19.80 1611.7 *hist_fcst*
6 17 72.50 51.50 0.07 21.00 1632.7 *hist_fcst*
6 18 75.90 52.20 0.00 23.05 1655.7 *hist_fcst*
6 19 75.30 51.80 0.01 22.55 1678.3 *hist_fcst*
6 20 77.30 51.80 0.03 23.55 1701.8 *hist_fcst*
6 21 77.60 53.30 0.04 24.45 1726.3 *hist_fcst*
6 22 76.90 52.70 0.00 23.80 1750.1 *hist_fcst*
6 23 78.70 52.60 0.02 24.65 1774.7 *hist_fcst*
6 24 77.20 54.60 0.10 24.90 1799.6 *hist_fcst*
6 25 79.10 55.20 0.02 26.15 1825.8 *hist_fcst*
6 26 80.30 55.90 0.03 27.10 1852.9 *hist_fcst*
6 27 81.40 56.80 0.08 28.10 1881.0 *hist_fcst*
6 28 80.10 56.60 0.11 27.35 1908.3 *hist_fcst*
6 29 80.40 55.50 0.01 26.95 1935.3 *hist_fcst*
6 30 81.10 55.30 0.00 27.20 1962.5 *hist_fcst*
7 1 81.10 56.50 0.03 27.80 1990.3 *hist_fcst*
7 2 80.80 56.70 0.01 27.75 2018.0 *hist_fcst*
7 3 80.40 55.80 0.01 27.10 2045.1 *hist_fcst*
7 4 78.90 53.70 0.00 25.30 2070.4 *hist_fcst* Peak in density large larvae
7 5 80.40 53.40 0.00 25.90 2096.3 *hist_fcst*
7 6 82.00 54.70 0.00 27.35 2123.7 *hist_fcst*
7 7 81.50 55.30 0.00 27.40 2151.1 *hist_fcst*
7 8 78.70 56.00 0.01 26.35 2177.4 *hist_fcst*
7 9 83.10 55.70 0.02 28.40 2205.8 *hist_fcst*
7 10 81.00 55.90 0.04 27.45 2233.3 *hist_fcst*
7 11 79.90 55.60 0.00 26.75 2260.0 *hist_fcst*
7 12 81.20 55.50 0.00 27.35 2287.4 *hist_fcst*
7 13 83.60 56.60 0.00 29.10 2316.5 *hist_fcst*
7 14 81.50 55.20 0.00 27.35 2343.8 *hist_fcst*
7 15 85.70 55.30 0.00 29.50 2373.3 *hist_fcst*
7 16 83.30 56.30 0.00 28.80 2402.1 *hist_fcst*
7 17 83.10 56.60 0.00 28.85 2431.0 *hist_fcst*
7 18 80.50 55.80 0.00 27.15 2458.1 *hist_fcst*
7 19 83.10 55.80 0.00 28.45 2486.6 *hist_fcst*
7 20 83.00 55.40 0.01 28.20 2514.8 *hist_fcst*
7 21 81.30 54.20 0.00 26.75 2541.5 *hist_fcst*
7 22 81.70 53.80 0.00 26.75 2568.3 *hist_fcst*
7 23 80.50 55.70 0.03 27.10 2595.4 *hist_fcst*
7 24 80.60 54.60 0.04 26.60 2622.0 *hist_fcst*
7 25 84.30 54.10 0.00 28.20 2650.2 *hist_fcst*
7 26 86.40 55.40 0.01 29.90 2680.1 *hist_fcst*
7 27 88.20 56.40 0.00 31.30 2711.4 *hist_fcst*
7 28 84.10 55.70 0.00 28.90 2740.3 *hist_fcst*
7 29 87.00 56.30 0.00 30.65 2770.9 *hist_fcst*
7 30 90.20 57.70 0.00 32.95 2803.9 *hist_fcst*
7 31 88.00 57.60 0.00 31.80 2835.7 *hist_fcst*
8 1 86.50 57.20 0.00 30.85 2866.5 *hist_fcst*
8 2 86.30 56.90 0.00 30.60 2897.1 *hist_fcst*
8 3 83.10 58.50 0.00 29.80 2926.9 *hist_fcst*
8 4 87.10 57.80 0.00 31.45 2958.4 *hist_fcst*
8 5 91.30 57.10 0.00 33.20 2991.6 *hist_fcst*
8 6 86.60 56.10 0.00 30.35 3021.9 *hist_fcst*
8 7 84.00 55.50 0.01 28.75 3050.7 *hist_fcst*
8 8 83.10 55.90 0.00 28.50 3079.2 *hist_fcst*
8 9 79.90 56.60 0.01 27.25 3106.4 *hist_fcst*
8 10 83.70 57.20 0.00 29.45 3135.9 *hist_fcst*
8 11 85.60 57.80 0.01 30.70 3166.6 *hist_fcst*
8 12 86.10 58.30 0.00 31.20 3197.8 *hist_fcst*
8 13 85.20 57.60 0.00 30.40 3228.2 *hist_fcst*
8 14 86.40 56.30 0.01 30.35 3258.5 *hist_fcst*
8 15 85.20 56.80 0.00 30.00 3288.5 *hist_fcst*
8 16 86.70 57.80 0.00 31.25 3319.8 *hist_fcst*
8 17 86.10 56.80 0.00 30.45 3350.2 *hist_fcst*
8 18 84.40 56.20 0.00 29.30 3379.5 *hist_fcst*
8 19 86.80 56.20 0.00 30.50 3410.0 *hist_fcst*
8 20 86.20 56.90 0.00 30.55 3440.6 *hist_fcst*
8 21 82.30 54.50 0.01 27.40 3468.0 *hist_fcst*
8 22 81.40 55.00 0.01 27.20 3495.2 *hist_fcst*
8 23 80.00 53.20 0.00 25.60 3520.8 *hist_fcst*
8 24 79.60 52.90 0.01 25.25 3546.0 *hist_fcst*
8 25 80.80 52.00 0.00 25.40 3571.4 *hist_fcst*
8 26 81.20 53.00 0.01 26.10 3597.5 *hist_fcst*
8 27 83.60 55.50 0.01 28.55 3626.1 *hist_fcst*
8 28 84.30 56.30 0.00 29.30 3655.4 *hist_fcst*
8 29 85.80 56.40 0.01 30.10 3685.5 *hist_fcst*
8 30 80.70 55.60 0.06 27.15 3712.6 *hist_fcst*
8 31 75.90 54.10 0.07 24.00 3736.6 *hist_fcst*
9 1 77.20 54.20 0.00 24.70 3761.3 *hist_fcst*
9 2 80.00 53.20 0.00 25.60 3786.9 *hist_fcst*
9 3 81.30 52.80 0.00 26.05 3813.0 *hist_fcst*
9 4 80.90 52.40 0.01 25.65 3838.6 *hist_fcst*
9 5 80.90 53.00 0.00 25.95 3864.6 *hist_fcst*
9 6 81.50 54.90 0.11 27.20 3891.8 *hist_fcst*
9 7 81.60 54.40 0.10 27.00 3918.8 *hist_fcst*
9 8 81.40 55.30 0.01 27.35 3946.1 *hist_fcst*
9 9 78.50 55.70 0.04 26.10 3972.2 *hist_fcst*
9 10 79.10 55.20 0.03 26.15 3998.4 *hist_fcst*
9 11 77.30 53.30 0.03 24.30 4022.7 *hist_fcst*
9 12 79.50 52.10 0.02 24.80 4047.5 *hist_fcst*
9 13 79.10 51.40 0.03 24.25 4071.7 *hist_fcst*
9 14 76.60 50.50 0.00 22.55 4094.3 *hist_fcst*
9 15 77.10 49.90 0.02 22.50 4116.8 *hist_fcst*
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 ARAO AURORA OR DD accumulation on 6-5-23: 1343. QA 99% ok - show details Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | | | This year is about | versus | QA | | 8 days ahead | 2022 | ok | | 4 days behind | 2021 | ok | | 1 day ahead | 30-yr normal | ok |
|
| Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-14-23 | 857 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-17-23 | 952 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-19-23 | 1007 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-2-23 | 1277 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-4-23 | 2070 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?12519)
