|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2022 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 37.70 22.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 51.70 27.40 0.02 3.17 3.2
1 3 50.70 35.20 1.96 3.52 6.7
1 4 44.60 37.70 0.26 1.17 7.9
1 5 43.70 38.80 0.76 0.91 8.8
1 6 55.30 42.70 0.47 8.00 16.8
1 7 53.10 38.60 0.23 5.27 22.0
1 8 50.20 37.00 0.01 3.57 25.6
1 9 48.30 29.00 0.01 1.99 27.6
1 10 46.50 30.10 0.08 1.40 29.0
1 11 57.60 40.50 0.15 8.09 37.1
1 12 57.70 40.80 0.00 8.26 45.3
1 13 50.70 39.00 0.12 4.21 49.6
1 14 52.60 37.40 0.00 4.76 54.3
1 15 41.50 29.70 0.01 0.04 54.4
1 16 47.10 32.00 0.00 1.72 56.1
1 17 39.60 36.20 0.00 0.00 56.1
1 18 48.30 37.90 0.03 2.84 58.9
1 19 53.20 44.20 0.41 7.70 66.6
1 20 56.70 42.30 0.11 8.50 75.1
1 21 45.40 35.50 0.00 1.31 76.4
1 22 50.00 39.80 0.00 4.08 80.5
1 23 48.70 27.50 0.00 2.05 82.6
1 24 36.40 29.40 0.00 0.00 82.6
1 25 50.60 25.00 0.02 2.60 85.2
1 26 48.10 25.70 0.00 1.76 86.9
1 27 47.40 25.40 0.00 1.51 88.4
1 28 50.60 23.50 0.00 2.52 91.0
1 29 49.50 25.20 0.00 2.22 93.2
1 30 51.90 29.20 0.19 3.39 96.6
1 31 46.00 33.50 0.00 1.40 98.0
2 1 46.20 32.40 0.00 1.41 99.4
2 2 44.40 38.80 0.10 1.21 100.6
2 3 52.50 36.90 0.01 4.62 105.2
2 4 48.50 33.30 0.00 2.37 107.6
2 5 50.60 39.50 0.01 4.29 111.9
2 6 46.10 30.60 0.00 1.29 113.2
2 7 50.90 31.50 0.01 3.19 116.3
2 8 52.10 34.10 0.00 3.99 120.3
2 9 58.90 33.80 0.01 7.04 127.4
2 10 51.10 37.20 0.00 4.02 131.4
2 11 67.70 43.60 0.00 14.65 146.0
2 12 64.70 44.20 0.00 13.45 159.5
2 13 58.80 30.50 0.00 6.48 166.0
2 14 49.90 40.10 0.12 4.12 170.1
2 15 47.80 40.20 0.00 3.11 173.2
2 16 49.10 40.00 0.00 3.69 176.9
2 17 47.70 35.90 0.00 2.30 179.2
2 18 58.20 29.60 0.01 6.10 185.3
2 19 49.80 31.40 0.00 2.73 188.0
2 20 49.80 37.80 0.01 3.52 191.5
2 21 42.80 33.40 0.06 0.34 191.9
2 22 38.30 27.30 0.00 0.00 191.9
2 23 38.00 23.90 0.00 0.00 191.9
2 24 40.70 24.00 0.00 0.00 191.9
2 25 49.50 24.20 0.00 2.17 194.0
2 26 46.00 27.70 0.23 1.14 195.2
2 27 56.30 39.10 0.23 6.97 202.2
2 28 60.30 53.10 1.67 15.70 217.9
3 1 58.60 50.50 1.15 13.55 231.4
3 2 52.90 47.80 0.60 9.35 240.8
3 3 50.60 38.50 0.06 4.04 244.8
3 4 50.90 37.50 0.09 3.98 248.8
3 5 54.40 31.00 0.00 4.61 253.4
3 6 51.80 32.40 0.00 3.66 257.1
3 7 57.20 30.00 0.00 5.71 262.8
3 8 52.20 36.20 0.00 4.35 267.1
3 9 51.20 35.10 0.11 3.73 270.8
3 10 50.60 27.60 0.00 2.76 273.6
3 11 58.10 28.80 0.00 5.95 279.6
3 12 56.50 30.00 0.22 5.40 285.0
3 13 51.40 42.60 0.38 6.00 291.0
3 14 55.70 44.80 0.31 9.25 300.2
3 15 56.40 42.20 0.11 8.30 308.5
3 16 56.70 39.70 0.00 7.35 315.9
3 17 51.50 37.00 0.00 4.17 320.0
3 18 57.00 45.60 0.00 10.30 330.3
3 19 53.70 39.60 0.23 5.84 336.2
3 20 49.30 38.50 0.01 3.42 339.6
3 21 51.80 42.30 0.28 6.05 345.6
3 22 66.90 49.40 0.00 17.15 362.8
3 23 58.80 44.10 0.01 10.45 373.2
3 24 63.80 35.50 0.00 9.70 382.9
3 25 60.50 42.80 0.00 10.65 393.6
3 26 65.20 47.70 0.06 15.45 409.0
3 27 67.50 46.50 0.00 16.00 425.0
3 28 60.40 51.10 0.00 14.75 439.8
3 29 61.00 46.70 0.00 12.85 452.6
3 30 58.10 40.20 0.00 8.22 460.9
3 31 53.70 38.80 0.00 5.61 466.5
4 1 58.40 36.70 0.10 7.38 473.9
4 2 57.90 40.20 0.00 8.12 482.0
4 3 56.20 39.30 0.23 6.98 489.0
4 4 52.10 40.50 0.96 5.34 494.3
4 5 54.30 37.00 0.04 5.49 499.8
4 6 66.30 36.30 0.00 11.10 510.9
4 7 77.50 39.20 0.00 17.52 528.4
4 8 59.00 43.60 0.02 10.30 538.7
4 9 52.60 38.30 0.01 4.96 543.7
4 10 45.40 37.00 0.68 1.44 545.1
4 11 48.60 32.60 0.67 2.35 547.5
4 12 45.60 36.40 0.33 1.46 548.9
4 13 48.40 34.30 0.24 2.42 551.3
4 14 48.40 30.70 0.03 2.13 553.5
4 15 54.00 28.60 0.00 4.19 557.7
4 16 50.20 34.90 0.03 3.26 560.9
4 17 56.70 31.60 0.00 5.70 566.6
4 18 51.70 42.90 0.38 6.30 572.9
4 19 50.20 40.40 0.47 4.36 577.3
4 20 53.00 35.80 0.19 4.65 581.9
4 21 55.80 44.70 0.10 9.25 591.2
4 22 59.50 36.90 0.19 7.96 599.2
4 23 63.60 37.60 0.00 10.13 609.3
4 24 68.30 36.80 0.00 12.21 621.5
4 25 55.60 49.70 0.09 11.65 633.1
4 26 54.40 43.40 0.08 7.90 641.0
4 27 56.40 42.30 0.05 8.35 649.4
4 28 56.10 44.30 0.10 9.20 658.6
4 29 60.50 43.80 0.39 11.15 669.7
4 30 57.20 47.00 0.53 11.10 680.8
5 1 63.60 46.70 0.00 14.15 695.0
5 2 54.50 45.00 0.19 8.75 703.7
5 3 60.50 46.00 0.00 12.25 716.0
5 4 69.90 44.40 0.00 16.15 732.1
5 5 58.80 45.70 0.62 11.25 743.4
5 6 60.50 47.70 0.57 13.10 756.5
5 7 54.80 42.70 0.25 7.75 764.2
5 8 50.00 40.00 0.26 4.14 768.4
5 9 53.80 33.50 0.04 4.67 773.0
5 10 60.70 42.10 0.02 10.40 783.4
5 11 60.00 42.70 0.00 10.35 793.8
5 12 53.60 41.80 0.18 6.70 800.5
5 13 56.50 33.60 0.34 5.90 806.4
5 14 68.20 48.70 0.30 17.45 823.8
5 15 68.90 54.40 0.09 20.65 844.5
5 16 63.60 51.30 0.00 16.45 860.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 17 64.30 43.90 0.00 13.10 874.0
5 18 60.10 45.70 0.11 11.90 885.9
5 19 56.10 42.60 0.10 8.35 894.3
5 20 58.70 39.20 0.00 8.18 902.5
5 21 71.70 41.70 0.00 15.70 918.2
5 22 72.50 43.40 0.00 16.95 935.1
5 23 71.60 50.60 0.00 20.10 955.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 24 67.20 44.60 0.00 14.90 970.1
5 25 74.50 52.50 0.01 22.50 992.6
5 26 72.30 55.20 0.09 22.75 1015.4 Peak egg laying
5 27 61.30 53.90 0.00 16.60 1032.0
5 28 61.70 49.80 0.34 14.75 1046.7
5 29 58.70 48.50 0.22 12.60 1059.3
5 30 62.40 47.30 0.02 13.85 1073.2
5 31 76.60 46.20 0.00 20.40 1093.6
6 1 76.70 53.00 0.00 23.85 1117.4
6 2 77.10 51.00 0.00 23.05 1140.5
6 3 64.00 53.80 0.09 17.90 1158.4
6 4 64.00 53.30 0.45 17.65 1176.0
6 5 67.40 55.90 0.28 20.65 1196.7
6 6 63.80 52.00 0.18 16.90 1213.6
6 7 60.20 47.40 0.00 12.80 1226.4 Px Pn
6 8 72.40 56.00 0.00 23.20 1249.6
6 9 74.10 53.00 0.42 22.55 1272.1 Peak egg hatch
6 10 68.20 56.50 2.11 21.35 1293.5
6 11 67.40 57.10 0.09 21.25 1314.7
6 12 58.60 50.50 0.20 13.55 1328.3
6 13 59.70 48.50 0.01 13.10 1341.4
6 14 64.70 49.70 0.05 16.20 1357.6
6 15 69.60 49.50 0.00 18.55 1376.1
6 16 68.40 54.80 0.00 20.60 1396.7
6 17 60.70 50.90 0.10 14.80 1411.5
6 18 62.40 51.20 0.04 15.80 1427.3
6 19 64.80 52.30 0.03 17.55 1444.9
6 20 70.20 54.80 0.00 21.50 1466.4
6 21 82.50 49.90 0.00 25.20 1491.6
6 22 78.30 54.30 0.00 25.30 1516.9
6 23 76.40 46.80 0.00 20.60 1537.5
6 24 83.60 46.80 0.00 24.20 1561.7
6 25 92.20 63.80 0.00 37.00 1598.7
6 26 98.00 68.20 0.00 42.10 1640.8
6 27 90.80 60.90 0.00 34.85 1675.6
6 28 71.00 53.30 0.00 21.15 1696.8
6 29 76.60 55.50 0.00 25.05 1721.8
6 30 80.10 51.60 0.00 24.85 1746.7
7 1 79.90 52.50 0.00 25.20 1771.9
7 2 70.60 54.30 0.00 21.45 1793.3
7 3 72.00 58.00 0.00 24.00 1817.3
7 4 77.30 51.40 0.00 23.35 1840.7
7 5 74.50 59.30 0.00 25.90 1866.6
7 6 74.00 61.10 0.14 26.55 1893.1
7 7 77.10 60.20 0.00 27.65 1920.8
7 8 81.40 60.00 0.00 29.70 1950.5
7 9 80.80 58.50 0.00 28.65 1979.1
7 10 79.30 52.70 0.00 25.00 2004.1
7 11 95.60 60.40 0.00 37.00 2041.1
7 12 93.70 63.50 0.00 37.60 2078.7 Peak in density large larvae
7 13 80.80 54.80 0.00 26.80 2105.5
7 14 85.40 54.10 0.00 28.75 2134.3
7 15 82.40 51.30 0.00 25.85 2160.1
7 16 76.30 60.00 0.00 27.15 2187.3
7 17 73.60 59.10 0.00 25.35 2212.6
7 18 79.20 49.10 0.00 23.15 2235.8
7 19 89.70 54.40 0.00 31.05 2266.8
7 20 92.10 58.60 0.00 34.35 2301.2
7 21 84.60 57.00 0.00 29.80 2331.0
7 22 77.90 54.60 0.00 25.25 2356.2
7 23 76.00 56.20 0.00 25.10 2381.3
7 24 92.30 54.50 0.00 32.40 2413.7
7 25 98.70 61.00 0.00 38.85 2452.6
7 26 99.90 60.00 0.00 38.95 2491.5
7 27 97.70 62.60 0.00 39.15 2530.7
7 28 96.70 63.30 0.00 39.00 2569.7
7 29 97.70 66.50 0.00 41.10 2610.8
7 30 96.20 66.40 0.00 40.30 2651.1 Px
7 31 87.00 60.90 0.00 32.95 2684.0 Px Pn
8 1 87.50 63.80 0.01 34.65 2718.7
8 2 88.50 60.50 0.00 33.50 2752.2
8 3 83.90 58.90 0.00 30.40 2782.6
8 4 76.00 52.20 0.00 23.10 2805.7
8 5 83.20 52.20 0.00 26.70 2832.4
8 6 91.70 51.40 0.00 30.55 2862.9
8 7 99.50 59.40 0.00 38.45 2901.4
8 8 82.70 59.50 0.00 30.10 2931.5
8 9 85.60 58.60 0.00 31.10 2962.6
8 10 75.90 61.00 0.00 27.45 2990.0
8 11 86.40 54.30 0.00 29.35 3019.4
8 12 78.80 54.30 0.00 25.55 3044.9
8 13 79.10 56.40 0.00 26.75 3071.7
8 14 85.40 52.40 0.00 27.90 3099.6
8 15 89.20 54.90 0.00 31.05 3130.6
8 16 91.10 58.10 0.00 33.60 3164.2
8 17 95.40 60.40 0.00 36.90 3201.1
8 18 82.90 68.50 0.00 34.70 3235.8
8 19 83.10 63.40 0.00 32.25 3268.1
8 20 78.60 61.50 0.00 29.05 3297.1
8 21 88.60 56.50 0.00 31.55 3328.7
8 22 87.20 61.10 0.00 33.15 3361.8
8 23 85.40 58.70 0.00 31.05 3392.9
8 24 92.60 58.20 0.00 34.40 3427.3
8 25 94.60 61.10 0.00 36.85 3464.1
8 26 79.50 58.00 0.00 27.75 3491.9
8 27 71.90 60.20 0.00 25.05 3516.9
8 28 79.60 50.90 0.00 24.25 3541.2
8 29 92.20 55.80 0.00 33.00 3574.2
8 30 94.90 58.60 0.00 35.75 3609.9
8 31 90.60 59.80 0.00 34.20 3644.1
9 1 90.10 53.30 0.00 30.70 3674.8
9 2 86.80 55.90 0.00 30.35 3705.2
9 3 78.00 57.60 0.00 26.80 3732.0
9 4 85.00 51.80 0.00 27.40 3759.4
9 5 80.40 54.10 0.00 26.25 3785.6
9 6 91.90 50.00 0.00 29.95 3815.6
9 7 84.60 54.70 0.00 28.65 3844.2
9 8 81.80 45.40 0.00 22.60 3866.8
9 9 88.40 58.20 0.00 32.30 3899.1
9 10 91.60 61.80 0.00 35.70 3934.8
9 11 78.50 57.70 0.00 27.10 3961.9
9 12 73.70 60.20 0.02 25.95 3987.9
9 13 71.50 59.60 0.00 24.55 4012.4
9 14 73.20 59.70 0.00 25.45 4037.9
9 15 73.00 59.60 0.00 25.30 4063.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2022 ARAO AURORA OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-16-22 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-23-22 | 955 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-26-22 | 1015 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-9-22 | 1272 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-12-22 | 2079 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?37879)
