Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight 1988


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight 1988 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2022 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 37.70 22.20 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 51.70 27.40 0.02 3.17 3.2 1 3 50.70 35.20 1.96 3.52 6.7 1 4 44.60 37.70 0.26 1.17 7.9 1 5 43.70 38.80 0.76 0.91 8.8 1 6 55.30 42.70 0.47 8.00 16.8 1 7 53.10 38.60 0.23 5.27 22.0 1 8 50.20 37.00 0.01 3.57 25.6 1 9 48.30 29.00 0.01 1.99 27.6 1 10 46.50 30.10 0.08 1.40 29.0 1 11 57.60 40.50 0.15 8.09 37.1 1 12 57.70 40.80 0.00 8.26 45.3 1 13 50.70 39.00 0.12 4.21 49.6 1 14 52.60 37.40 0.00 4.76 54.3 1 15 41.50 29.70 0.01 0.04 54.4 1 16 47.10 32.00 0.00 1.72 56.1 1 17 39.60 36.20 0.00 0.00 56.1 1 18 48.30 37.90 0.03 2.84 58.9 1 19 53.20 44.20 0.41 7.70 66.6 1 20 56.70 42.30 0.11 8.50 75.1 1 21 45.40 35.50 0.00 1.31 76.4 1 22 50.00 39.80 0.00 4.08 80.5 1 23 48.70 27.50 0.00 2.05 82.6 1 24 36.40 29.40 0.00 0.00 82.6 1 25 50.60 25.00 0.02 2.60 85.2 1 26 48.10 25.70 0.00 1.76 86.9 1 27 47.40 25.40 0.00 1.51 88.4 1 28 50.60 23.50 0.00 2.52 91.0 1 29 49.50 25.20 0.00 2.22 93.2 1 30 51.90 29.20 0.19 3.39 96.6 1 31 46.00 33.50 0.00 1.40 98.0 2 1 46.20 32.40 0.00 1.41 99.4 2 2 44.40 38.80 0.10 1.21 100.6 2 3 52.50 36.90 0.01 4.62 105.2 2 4 48.50 33.30 0.00 2.37 107.6 2 5 50.60 39.50 0.01 4.29 111.9 2 6 46.10 30.60 0.00 1.29 113.2 2 7 50.90 31.50 0.01 3.19 116.3 2 8 52.10 34.10 0.00 3.99 120.3 2 9 58.90 33.80 0.01 7.04 127.4 2 10 51.10 37.20 0.00 4.02 131.4 2 11 67.70 43.60 0.00 14.65 146.0 2 12 64.70 44.20 0.00 13.45 159.5 2 13 58.80 30.50 0.00 6.48 166.0 2 14 49.90 40.10 0.12 4.12 170.1 2 15 47.80 40.20 0.00 3.11 173.2 2 16 49.10 40.00 0.00 3.69 176.9 2 17 47.70 35.90 0.00 2.30 179.2 2 18 58.20 29.60 0.01 6.10 185.3 2 19 49.80 31.40 0.00 2.73 188.0 2 20 49.80 37.80 0.01 3.52 191.5 2 21 42.80 33.40 0.06 0.34 191.9 2 22 38.30 27.30 0.00 0.00 191.9 2 23 38.00 23.90 0.00 0.00 191.9 2 24 40.70 24.00 0.00 0.00 191.9 2 25 49.50 24.20 0.00 2.17 194.0 2 26 46.00 27.70 0.23 1.14 195.2 2 27 56.30 39.10 0.23 6.97 202.2 2 28 60.30 53.10 1.67 15.70 217.9 3 1 58.60 50.50 1.15 13.55 231.4 3 2 52.90 47.80 0.60 9.35 240.8 3 3 50.60 38.50 0.06 4.04 244.8 3 4 50.90 37.50 0.09 3.98 248.8 3 5 54.40 31.00 0.00 4.61 253.4 3 6 51.80 32.40 0.00 3.66 257.1 3 7 57.20 30.00 0.00 5.71 262.8 3 8 52.20 36.20 0.00 4.35 267.1 3 9 51.20 35.10 0.11 3.73 270.8 3 10 50.60 27.60 0.00 2.76 273.6 3 11 58.10 28.80 0.00 5.95 279.6 3 12 56.50 30.00 0.22 5.40 285.0 3 13 51.40 42.60 0.38 6.00 291.0 3 14 55.70 44.80 0.31 9.25 300.2 3 15 56.40 42.20 0.11 8.30 308.5 3 16 56.70 39.70 0.00 7.35 315.9 3 17 51.50 37.00 0.00 4.17 320.0 3 18 57.00 45.60 0.00 10.30 330.3 3 19 53.70 39.60 0.23 5.84 336.2 3 20 49.30 38.50 0.01 3.42 339.6 3 21 51.80 42.30 0.28 6.05 345.6 3 22 66.90 49.40 0.00 17.15 362.8 3 23 58.80 44.10 0.01 10.45 373.2 3 24 63.80 35.50 0.00 9.70 382.9 3 25 60.50 42.80 0.00 10.65 393.6 3 26 65.20 47.70 0.06 15.45 409.0 3 27 67.50 46.50 0.00 16.00 425.0 3 28 60.40 51.10 0.00 14.75 439.8 3 29 61.00 46.70 0.00 12.85 452.6 3 30 58.10 40.20 0.00 8.22 460.9 3 31 53.70 38.80 0.00 5.61 466.5 4 1 58.40 36.70 0.10 7.38 473.9 4 2 57.90 40.20 0.00 8.12 482.0 4 3 56.20 39.30 0.23 6.98 489.0 4 4 52.10 40.50 0.96 5.34 494.3 4 5 54.30 37.00 0.04 5.49 499.8 4 6 66.30 36.30 0.00 11.10 510.9 4 7 77.50 39.20 0.00 17.52 528.4 4 8 59.00 43.60 0.02 10.30 538.7 4 9 52.60 38.30 0.01 4.96 543.7 4 10 45.40 37.00 0.68 1.44 545.1 4 11 48.60 32.60 0.67 2.35 547.5 4 12 45.60 36.40 0.33 1.46 548.9 4 13 48.40 34.30 0.24 2.42 551.3 4 14 48.40 30.70 0.03 2.13 553.5 4 15 54.00 28.60 0.00 4.19 557.7 4 16 50.20 34.90 0.03 3.26 560.9 4 17 56.70 31.60 0.00 5.70 566.6 4 18 51.70 42.90 0.38 6.30 572.9 4 19 50.20 40.40 0.47 4.36 577.3 4 20 53.00 35.80 0.19 4.65 581.9 4 21 55.80 44.70 0.10 9.25 591.2 4 22 59.50 36.90 0.19 7.96 599.2 4 23 63.60 37.60 0.00 10.13 609.3 4 24 68.30 36.80 0.00 12.21 621.5 4 25 55.60 49.70 0.09 11.65 633.1 4 26 54.40 43.40 0.08 7.90 641.0 4 27 56.40 42.30 0.05 8.35 649.4 4 28 56.10 44.30 0.10 9.20 658.6 4 29 60.50 43.80 0.39 11.15 669.7 4 30 57.20 47.00 0.53 11.10 680.8 5 1 63.60 46.70 0.00 14.15 695.0 5 2 54.50 45.00 0.19 8.75 703.7 5 3 60.50 46.00 0.00 12.25 716.0 5 4 69.90 44.40 0.00 16.15 732.1 5 5 58.80 45.70 0.62 11.25 743.4 5 6 60.50 47.70 0.57 13.10 756.5 5 7 54.80 42.70 0.25 7.75 764.2 5 8 50.00 40.00 0.26 4.14 768.4 5 9 53.80 33.50 0.04 4.67 773.0 5 10 60.70 42.10 0.02 10.40 783.4 5 11 60.00 42.70 0.00 10.35 793.8 5 12 53.60 41.80 0.18 6.70 800.5 5 13 56.50 33.60 0.34 5.90 806.4 5 14 68.20 48.70 0.30 17.45 823.8 5 15 68.90 54.40 0.09 20.65 844.5 5 16 63.60 51.30 0.00 16.45 860.9 Peak pheromone trap catch 5 17 64.30 43.90 0.00 13.10 874.0 5 18 60.10 45.70 0.11 11.90 885.9 5 19 56.10 42.60 0.10 8.35 894.3 5 20 58.70 39.20 0.00 8.18 902.5 5 21 71.70 41.70 0.00 15.70 918.2 5 22 72.50 43.40 0.00 16.95 935.1 5 23 71.60 50.60 0.00 20.10 955.2 Peak female adult emergence 5 24 67.20 44.60 0.00 14.90 970.1 5 25 74.50 52.50 0.01 22.50 992.6 5 26 72.30 55.20 0.09 22.75 1015.4 Peak egg laying 5 27 61.30 53.90 0.00 16.60 1032.0 5 28 61.70 49.80 0.34 14.75 1046.7 5 29 58.70 48.50 0.22 12.60 1059.3 5 30 62.40 47.30 0.02 13.85 1073.2 5 31 76.60 46.20 0.00 20.40 1093.6 6 1 76.70 53.00 0.00 23.85 1117.4 6 2 77.10 51.00 0.00 23.05 1140.5 6 3 64.00 53.80 0.09 17.90 1158.4 6 4 64.00 53.30 0.45 17.65 1176.0 6 5 67.40 55.90 0.28 20.65 1196.7 6 6 63.80 52.00 0.18 16.90 1213.6 6 7 60.20 47.40 0.00 12.80 1226.4 Px Pn 6 8 72.40 56.00 0.00 23.20 1249.6 6 9 74.10 53.00 0.42 22.55 1272.1 Peak egg hatch 6 10 68.20 56.50 2.11 21.35 1293.5 6 11 67.40 57.10 0.09 21.25 1314.7 6 12 58.60 50.50 0.20 13.55 1328.3 6 13 59.70 48.50 0.01 13.10 1341.4 6 14 64.70 49.70 0.05 16.20 1357.6 6 15 69.60 49.50 0.00 18.55 1376.1 6 16 68.40 54.80 0.00 20.60 1396.7 6 17 60.70 50.90 0.10 14.80 1411.5 6 18 62.40 51.20 0.04 15.80 1427.3 6 19 64.80 52.30 0.03 17.55 1444.9 6 20 70.20 54.80 0.00 21.50 1466.4 6 21 82.50 49.90 0.00 25.20 1491.6 6 22 78.30 54.30 0.00 25.30 1516.9 6 23 76.40 46.80 0.00 20.60 1537.5 6 24 83.60 46.80 0.00 24.20 1561.7 6 25 92.20 63.80 0.00 37.00 1598.7 6 26 98.00 68.20 0.00 42.10 1640.8 6 27 90.80 60.90 0.00 34.85 1675.6 6 28 71.00 53.30 0.00 21.15 1696.8 6 29 76.60 55.50 0.00 25.05 1721.8 6 30 80.10 51.60 0.00 24.85 1746.7 7 1 79.90 52.50 0.00 25.20 1771.9 7 2 70.60 54.30 0.00 21.45 1793.3 7 3 72.00 58.00 0.00 24.00 1817.3 7 4 77.30 51.40 0.00 23.35 1840.7 7 5 74.50 59.30 0.00 25.90 1866.6 7 6 74.00 61.10 0.14 26.55 1893.1 7 7 77.10 60.20 0.00 27.65 1920.8 7 8 81.40 60.00 0.00 29.70 1950.5 7 9 80.80 58.50 0.00 28.65 1979.1 7 10 79.30 52.70 0.00 25.00 2004.1 7 11 95.60 60.40 0.00 37.00 2041.1 7 12 93.70 63.50 0.00 37.60 2078.7 Peak in density large larvae 7 13 80.80 54.80 0.00 26.80 2105.5 7 14 85.40 54.10 0.00 28.75 2134.3 7 15 82.40 51.30 0.00 25.85 2160.1 7 16 76.30 60.00 0.00 27.15 2187.3 7 17 73.60 59.10 0.00 25.35 2212.6 7 18 79.20 49.10 0.00 23.15 2235.8 7 19 89.70 54.40 0.00 31.05 2266.8 7 20 92.10 58.60 0.00 34.35 2301.2 7 21 84.60 57.00 0.00 29.80 2331.0 7 22 77.90 54.60 0.00 25.25 2356.2 7 23 76.00 56.20 0.00 25.10 2381.3 7 24 92.30 54.50 0.00 32.40 2413.7 7 25 98.70 61.00 0.00 38.85 2452.6 7 26 99.90 60.00 0.00 38.95 2491.5 7 27 97.70 62.60 0.00 39.15 2530.7 7 28 96.70 63.30 0.00 39.00 2569.7 7 29 97.70 66.50 0.00 41.10 2610.8 7 30 96.20 66.40 0.00 40.30 2651.1 Px 7 31 87.00 60.90 0.00 32.95 2684.0 Px Pn 8 1 87.50 63.80 0.01 34.65 2718.7 8 2 88.50 60.50 0.00 33.50 2752.2 8 3 83.90 58.90 0.00 30.40 2782.6 8 4 76.00 52.20 0.00 23.10 2805.7 8 5 83.20 52.20 0.00 26.70 2832.4 8 6 91.70 51.40 0.00 30.55 2862.9 8 7 99.50 59.40 0.00 38.45 2901.4 8 8 82.70 59.50 0.00 30.10 2931.5 8 9 85.60 58.60 0.00 31.10 2962.6 8 10 75.90 61.00 0.00 27.45 2990.0 8 11 86.40 54.30 0.00 29.35 3019.4 8 12 78.80 54.30 0.00 25.55 3044.9 8 13 79.10 56.40 0.00 26.75 3071.7 8 14 85.40 52.40 0.00 27.90 3099.6 8 15 89.20 54.90 0.00 31.05 3130.6 8 16 91.10 58.10 0.00 33.60 3164.2 8 17 95.40 60.40 0.00 36.90 3201.1 8 18 82.90 68.50 0.00 34.70 3235.8 8 19 83.10 63.40 0.00 32.25 3268.1 8 20 78.60 61.50 0.00 29.05 3297.1 8 21 88.60 56.50 0.00 31.55 3328.7 8 22 87.20 61.10 0.00 33.15 3361.8 8 23 85.40 58.70 0.00 31.05 3392.9 8 24 92.60 58.20 0.00 34.40 3427.3 8 25 94.60 61.10 0.00 36.85 3464.1 8 26 79.50 58.00 0.00 27.75 3491.9 8 27 71.90 60.20 0.00 25.05 3516.9 8 28 79.60 50.90 0.00 24.25 3541.2 8 29 92.20 55.80 0.00 33.00 3574.2 8 30 94.90 58.60 0.00 35.75 3609.9 8 31 90.60 59.80 0.00 34.20 3644.1 9 1 90.10 53.30 0.00 30.70 3674.8 9 2 86.80 55.90 0.00 30.35 3705.2 9 3 78.00 57.60 0.00 26.80 3732.0 9 4 85.00 51.80 0.00 27.40 3759.4 9 5 80.40 54.10 0.00 26.25 3785.6 9 6 91.90 50.00 0.00 29.95 3815.6 9 7 84.60 54.70 0.00 28.65 3844.2 9 8 81.80 45.40 0.00 22.60 3866.8 9 9 88.40 58.20 0.00 32.30 3899.1 9 10 91.60 61.80 0.00 35.70 3934.8 9 11 78.50 57.70 0.00 27.10 3961.9 9 12 73.70 60.20 0.02 25.95 3987.9 9 13 71.50 59.60 0.00 24.55 4012.4 9 14 73.20 59.70 0.00 25.45 4037.9 9 15 73.00 59.60 0.00 25.30 4063.2 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988
Location: 2022 ARAO AURORA OR
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME
DateDDsEvent
 5-16-22 861Peak pheromone trap catch
 5-23-22 955Peak female adult emergence
 5-26-22 1015Peak egg laying
 6-9-22 1272Peak egg hatch
 7-12-22 2079Peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988