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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 51.80 45.10 0.46 7.45 7.5 * START *
1 2 51.10 47.00 0.76 8.05 15.5
1 3 51.80 40.10 0.60 5.06 20.6
1 4 52.20 43.90 0.84 7.05 27.6
1 5 45.90 38.00 0.00 1.77 29.4
1 6 51.60 43.80 0.62 6.70 36.1
1 7 52.90 38.60 0.02 5.17 41.2
1 8 52.60 38.00 0.36 4.89 46.1
1 9 41.90 33.00 0.01 0.12 46.3
1 10 47.70 36.80 0.20 2.41 48.7
1 11 50.10 40.80 0.28 4.46 53.1
1 12 59.10 50.70 1.90 13.90 67.0
1 13 58.90 42.30 0.32 9.60 76.6
1 14 55.20 36.40 0.00 5.79 82.4
1 15 49.40 43.40 0.23 5.40 87.8
1 16 48.00 39.20 0.00 2.95 90.8
1 17 51.00 40.60 0.07 4.83 95.6
1 18 52.10 39.70 0.00 5.08 100.7
1 19 55.30 34.30 0.00 5.46 106.2
1 20 44.90 28.00 0.00 0.81 107.0
1 21 47.90 40.50 0.08 3.26 110.2
1 22 50.30 39.00 0.00 4.01 114.2
1 23 47.50 27.80 0.00 1.64 115.9
1 24 39.70 35.40 0.33 0.00 115.9
1 25 43.70 30.90 0.01 0.54 116.4
1 26 40.50 30.50 0.32 0.00 116.4
1 27 44.00 33.70 0.18 0.71 117.1
1 28 46.50 40.10 0.09 2.45 119.6
1 29 47.10 38.50 0.12 2.39 122.0
1 30 51.40 40.50 0.14 5.00 127.0
1 31 53.80 45.00 0.30 8.40 135.4
2 1 49.30 46.60 0.80 6.95 142.3
2 2 49.70 41.70 0.40 4.70 147.0
2 3 48.30 37.70 0.33 2.81 149.8
2 4 45.00 37.40 0.00 1.31 151.1
2 5 52.40 42.00 0.03 6.20 157.3
2 6 46.20 33.50 0.01 1.48 158.8
2 7 47.50 38.60 0.00 2.59 161.4
2 8 45.80 36.10 0.00 1.52 162.9
2 9 47.50 30.80 0.00 1.80 164.7
2 10 45.40 29.10 0.00 1.00 165.7
2 11 40.20 30.00 0.13 0.00 165.7
2 12 29.60 27.90 0.00 0.00 165.7
2 13 33.40 26.60 0.42 0.00 165.7
2 14 33.70 28.20 0.70 0.00 165.7
2 15 51.10 32.90 1.35 3.41 169.1
2 16 51.10 40.60 0.00 4.88 174.0
2 17 49.80 36.30 0.00 3.27 177.3
2 18 44.70 37.50 0.51 1.20 178.5
2 19 48.90 41.00 0.35 3.95 182.4
2 20 49.80 38.80 0.11 3.73 186.2
2 21 49.10 43.10 0.01 5.10 191.3
2 22 51.60 43.90 0.26 6.75 198.0
2 23 50.20 36.40 0.06 3.47 201.5
2 24 49.30 31.60 0.01 2.55 204.0
2 25 48.60 36.10 0.17 2.71 206.7
2 26 48.80 38.90 0.22 3.27 210.0
2 27 50.70 37.90 0.01 3.96 214.0
2 28 56.20 41.40 0.00 7.80 221.8
3 1 59.30 37.10 0.00 7.91 229.7
3 2 55.50 33.60 0.00 5.45 235.1
3 3 59.80 33.70 0.00 7.44 242.6 Px
3 4 57.00 40.00 0.00 7.60 250.2 Px Pn
3 5 48.60 38.30 0.44 3.05 253.2
3 6 53.10 37.40 0.03 5.00 258.2
3 7 50.80 37.20 0.15 3.88 262.1
3 8 52.50 33.70 0.02 4.12 266.2
3 9 53.10 35.40 0.02 4.63 270.8
3 10 54.90 37.20 0.24 5.81 276.7
3 11 59.50 32.90 0.00 7.16 283.8
3 12 61.10 30.70 0.00 7.54 291.4
3 13 62.00 30.50 0.00 7.92 299.3
3 14 49.30 38.70 0.24 3.47 302.8
3 15 46.90 28.80 0.00 1.48 304.2
3 16 55.00 28.20 0.00 4.57 308.8
3 17 61.10 31.10 0.00 7.60 316.4
3 18 54.00 36.20 0.26 5.19 321.6
3 19 53.40 41.50 0.09 6.45 328.0
3 20 54.80 42.50 0.10 7.65 335.7
3 21 49.20 40.50 0.12 3.90 339.6
3 22 53.70 36.30 0.09 5.07 344.7
3 23 55.50 33.60 0.00 5.45 350.1
3 24 48.40 39.00 0.08 3.10 353.2
3 25 51.80 41.10 0.07 5.45 358.7
3 26 57.30 35.80 0.00 6.66 365.3
3 27 63.20 34.70 0.00 9.24 374.6
3 28 51.00 38.40 0.19 4.21 378.8
3 29 53.30 33.60 0.01 4.46 383.2
3 30 54.80 28.40 0.00 4.51 387.7
3 31 70.80 35.80 0.00 13.16 400.9
4 1 66.90 37.80 0.00 11.81 412.7
4 2 61.90 38.20 0.00 9.46 422.2
4 3 66.00 38.20 0.00 11.48 433.6
4 4 57.90 41.10 0.00 8.50 442.1
4 5 58.30 29.30 0.00 6.10 448.2
4 6 65.30 34.70 0.00 10.24 458.5
4 7 50.70 35.40 0.00 3.55 462.0
4 8 56.20 41.50 0.03 7.85 469.9
4 9 57.60 32.80 0.00 6.28 476.2
4 10 50.80 39.50 0.05 4.39 480.5
4 11 59.00 29.10 0.00 6.38 486.9
4 12 64.30 38.80 0.00 10.83 497.8
4 13 63.70 48.60 0.00 15.15 512.9
4 14 68.30 43.90 0.00 15.10 528.0
4 15 75.50 37.50 0.00 15.95 544.0
4 16 78.00 44.30 0.00 20.15 564.1
4 17 82.10 49.00 0.00 24.55 588.7
4 18 81.20 43.10 0.00 21.15 609.8
4 19 73.50 41.20 0.00 16.35 626.2
4 20 73.60 50.20 0.00 20.90 647.1
4 21 76.70 45.70 0.00 20.20 667.3
4 22 64.70 40.40 0.00 11.59 678.9
4 23 59.50 39.20 0.00 8.58 687.4
4 24 54.00 45.80 0.24 8.90 696.3
4 25 60.00 44.70 0.01 11.35 707.7
4 26 58.00 46.10 0.00 11.05 718.7
4 27 67.10 42.00 0.00 13.55 732.3
4 28 72.10 44.30 0.00 17.20 749.5
4 29 77.80 44.80 0.00 20.30 769.8
4 30 70.80 49.10 0.34 18.95 788.7
5 1 57.70 47.10 0.00 11.40 800.1
5 2 65.30 48.20 0.00 15.75 815.9
5 3 63.60 44.70 0.05 13.15 829.0
5 4 68.60 52.50 0.00 19.55 848.6
5 5 82.50 46.90 0.00 23.70 872.3 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 6 63.90 48.20 0.01 15.05 887.3
5 7 59.00 42.60 0.05 9.80 897.1
5 8 60.60 36.60 0.00 8.41 905.5
5 9 64.80 50.30 0.00 16.55 922.1
5 10 70.60 42.30 0.00 15.45 937.5
5 11 74.20 42.60 0.00 17.40 954.9 Peak female adult emergence
5 12 78.80 45.30 0.00 21.05 976.0
5 13 78.30 47.20 0.00 21.75 997.7
5 14 80.80 53.60 0.00 26.20 1023.9 Peak egg laying
5 15 80.20 43.50 0.00 20.85 1044.8
5 16 83.20 46.90 0.00 24.05 1068.8
5 17 65.60 47.10 0.00 15.35 1084.2
5 18 63.50 46.60 0.05 14.05 1098.2
5 19 57.60 43.60 0.32 9.60 1107.8
5 20 58.00 40.60 0.05 8.33 1116.2
5 21 63.60 43.30 0.00 12.45 1128.6
5 22 68.00 47.50 0.00 16.75 1145.4
5 23 65.30 48.70 0.00 16.00 1161.4
5 24 62.30 48.90 0.33 14.60 1176.0
5 25 64.30 54.00 0.44 18.15 1194.1
5 26 71.60 46.00 0.00 17.80 1211.9
5 27 62.50 50.20 0.27 15.35 1227.3
5 28 67.90 49.00 0.00 17.45 1244.7
5 29 81.30 46.50 0.00 22.90 1267.6
5 30 82.90 50.70 0.00 25.80 1293.4 Peak egg hatch
5 31 86.70 51.90 0.00 28.30 1321.7
6 1 93.50 57.10 0.00 34.30 1356.0
6 2 90.10 60.10 0.00 34.10 1390.1
6 3 83.70 57.70 0.00 29.70 1419.8
6 4 76.80 52.40 0.00 23.60 1443.4
6 5 66.60 48.90 0.00 16.75 1460.2
6 6 64.30 43.70 0.01 13.00 1473.2
6 7 65.80 47.20 0.02 15.50 1488.7
6 8 67.30 48.30 0.01 16.80 1505.5
6 9 68.40 45.20 0.00 15.80 1521.3
6 10 65.90 48.60 0.00 16.25 1537.5
6 11 65.70 53.40 0.05 18.55 1556.1
6 12 78.10 52.10 0.38 24.10 1580.2
6 13 66.80 60.40 0.82 22.60 1602.8
6 14 70.80 59.40 0.30 24.10 1626.9
6 15 67.40 53.20 0.00 19.30 1646.2
6 16 78.40 49.90 0.00 23.15 1669.3
6 17 83.30 49.00 0.00 25.15 1694.5
6 18 80.30 50.00 0.00 24.15 1718.6
6 19 83.50 49.00 0.00 25.25 1743.9
6 20 90.90 58.20 0.00 33.55 1777.4
6 21 93.60 62.00 0.00 36.80 1814.2
6 22 84.70 59.20 0.00 30.95 1845.2
6 23 85.60 57.50 0.00 30.55 1875.7
6 24 88.30 55.50 0.00 30.90 1906.6
6 25 92.40 61.40 0.00 35.90 1942.5
6 26 105.40 66.10 0.00 44.75 1987.3
6 27 109.90 70.70 0.00 49.30 2036.6
6 28 112.80 70.90 0.00 50.85 2087.4 Peak in density large larvae
6 29 90.50 62.40 0.00 35.45 2122.9
6 30 74.30 61.20 0.00 26.75 2149.6
7 1 75.40 63.30 0.00 28.35 2178.0
7 2 85.30 62.40 0.00 32.85 2210.8
7 3 87.20 60.30 0.00 32.75 2243.6
7 4 87.10 59.10 0.00 32.10 2275.7
7 5 85.80 55.90 0.00 29.85 2305.5
7 6 91.90 57.30 0.00 33.60 2339.1
7 7 74.10 59.00 0.00 25.55 2364.7
7 8 78.10 54.20 0.00 25.15 2389.8
7 9 89.20 54.80 0.00 31.00 2420.8
7 10 88.20 58.90 0.00 32.55 2453.4
7 11 87.30 54.40 0.00 29.85 2483.2
7 12 87.80 56.90 0.00 31.35 2514.6
7 13 86.70 55.00 0.00 29.85 2544.4
7 14 84.90 55.80 0.00 29.35 2573.8
7 15 81.00 55.30 0.00 27.15 2600.9
7 16 78.50 52.70 0.00 24.60 2625.5
7 17 82.20 55.90 0.00 28.05 2653.6
7 18 86.70 55.70 0.00 30.20 2683.8
7 19 87.40 55.20 0.00 30.30 2714.1
7 20 78.70 58.60 0.00 27.65 2741.7
7 21 73.90 50.00 0.00 20.95 2762.7
7 22 80.60 48.90 0.00 23.75 2786.4
7 23 84.70 54.40 0.00 28.55 2815.0
7 24 90.30 57.70 0.00 33.00 2848.0
7 25 91.00 57.80 0.00 33.40 2881.4
7 26 89.40 58.80 0.00 33.10 2914.5
7 27 87.00 57.50 0.00 31.25 2945.7
7 28 92.90 61.20 0.00 36.05 2981.8
7 29 96.20 61.90 0.00 38.05 3019.8
7 30 91.50 64.40 0.00 36.95 3056.8
7 31 84.90 70.80 0.00 36.85 3093.6
8 1 90.80 64.10 0.00 36.45 3130.1
8 2 94.90 60.50 0.00 36.70 3166.8
8 3 91.00 61.50 0.00 35.25 3202.0
8 4 95.40 57.20 0.00 35.30 3237.3
8 5 82.70 60.30 0.00 30.50 3267.8
8 6 82.70 64.50 0.00 32.60 3300.4
8 7 82.80 59.20 0.00 30.00 3330.4
8 8 76.30 54.80 0.00 24.55 3355.0
8 9 80.30 54.00 0.00 26.15 3381.1
8 10 91.30 57.80 0.00 33.55 3414.7
8 11 101.70 63.90 0.00 41.80 3456.5
8 12 103.60 65.20 0.00 43.40 3499.9
8 13 94.30 66.50 0.00 39.40 3539.3
8 14 92.70 63.70 0.00 37.20 3576.5
8 15 95.10 64.60 0.00 38.85 3615.3
8 16 85.50 57.50 0.00 30.50 3645.8
8 17 70.70 57.20 0.00 22.95 3668.8
8 18 81.60 51.00 0.00 25.30 3694.1
8 19 81.40 53.60 0.00 26.50 3720.6
8 20 73.30 56.70 0.00 24.00 3744.6
8 21 71.80 57.80 0.02 23.80 3768.4
8 22 67.70 57.20 0.00 21.45 3789.8
8 23 72.60 44.50 0.00 17.55 3807.4
8 24 85.60 47.70 0.00 25.65 3833.0
8 25 79.30 49.60 0.00 23.45 3856.5
8 26 77.60 55.90 0.00 25.75 3882.2
8 27 72.70 58.80 0.00 24.75 3907.0
8 28 86.90 48.80 0.00 26.85 3933.8
8 29 89.50 53.70 0.00 30.60 3964.4
8 30 71.60 48.80 0.00 19.20 3983.6
8 31 69.40 51.10 0.00 19.25 4002.9
9 1 77.60 43.70 0.00 19.65 4022.5
9 2 84.00 49.20 0.00 25.60 4048.1
9 3 81.80 48.10 0.00 23.95 4072.1
9 4 85.90 48.90 0.00 26.40 4098.5
9 5 85.30 55.50 0.00 29.40 4127.9
9 6 82.90 60.60 0.00 30.75 4158.6
9 7 86.50 54.00 0.00 29.25 4187.9
9 8 86.40 56.60 0.00 30.50 4218.4
9 9 84.60 54.40 0.00 28.50 4246.9
9 10 70.20 57.30 0.00 22.75 4269.6
9 11 80.10 52.80 0.00 25.45 4295.1
9 12 73.30 55.60 0.00 23.45 4318.5
9 13 73.50 46.40 0.00 18.95 4337.5
9 14 82.40 47.00 0.00 23.70 4361.2
9 15 71.00 53.00 0.00 21.00 4382.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2021 ARAO AURORA OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-5-21 | 872 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-11-21 | 955 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-14-21 | 1024 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-30-21 | 1293 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-28-21 | 2087 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1041570)
