Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2015 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 41.40 28.40 0.00 0.03 0.0 * START * 1 2 40.30 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 41.50 35.20 0.06 0.06 0.1 1 4 53.50 39.60 0.16 5.74 5.8 1 5 56.00 43.90 0.00 8.95 14.8 1 6 50.50 40.40 0.01 4.51 19.3 1 7 41.60 35.20 0.01 0.08 19.4 1 8 41.90 34.50 0.01 0.13 19.5 1 9 47.30 34.50 0.00 1.99 21.5 1 10 43.00 35.70 0.05 0.46 22.0 1 11 46.80 42.90 0.14 3.85 25.8 1 12 50.40 42.20 0.03 5.30 31.1 1 13 52.20 35.80 0.00 4.29 35.4 1 14 50.50 30.60 0.00 2.95 38.3 1 15 43.80 30.90 0.41 0.57 38.9 1 16 56.30 39.90 0.30 7.22 46.1 1 17 60.00 39.70 1.50 8.99 55.1 1 18 58.70 48.30 0.26 12.50 67.6 1 19 54.50 42.20 0.03 7.35 75.0 1 20 52.10 37.70 0.00 4.59 79.5 1 21 47.10 29.90 0.01 1.60 81.2 1 22 49.70 40.40 0.00 4.11 85.3 1 23 50.80 42.00 0.06 5.40 90.7 1 24 62.70 47.80 0.00 14.25 104.9 1 25 49.80 43.40 0.01 5.60 110.5 1 26 46.70 41.10 0.00 2.90 113.4 1 27 50.60 42.70 0.04 5.65 119.1 1 28 56.60 47.80 0.03 11.20 130.3 1 29 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 138.4 1 30 54.80 32.00 0.00 4.91 143.3 1 31 51.80 29.80 0.00 3.40 146.7 2 1 46.90 37.40 0.29 2.13 148.8 2 2 58.70 41.70 0.63 9.20 158.0 2 3 51.30 41.50 0.12 5.40 163.4 2 4 52.40 45.80 0.08 8.10 171.5 2 5 56.60 45.80 0.69 10.20 181.7 2 6 56.90 50.50 1.04 12.70 194.4 2 7 57.70 50.50 0.82 13.10 207.5 2 8 59.40 45.50 0.10 11.45 219.0 2 9 53.60 48.30 0.62 9.95 228.9 2 10 55.30 48.10 0.04 10.70 239.6 2 11 52.30 39.80 0.00 5.21 244.8 2 12 54.90 40.70 0.01 6.82 251.6 2 13 46.70 39.50 0.01 2.40 254.0 2 14 60.20 41.00 0.01 9.60 263.6 2 15 64.20 42.10 0.00 12.15 275.8 2 16 64.20 49.60 0.00 15.90 291.7 2 17 65.40 36.00 0.00 10.59 302.3 2 18 57.80 35.50 0.00 6.84 309.1 2 19 58.30 46.00 0.00 11.15 320.3 2 20 57.20 42.40 0.02 8.80 329.1 2 21 60.10 42.20 0.00 10.15 339.2 2 22 57.40 41.20 0.00 8.30 347.5 2 23 60.50 39.50 0.00 9.17 356.7 2 24 58.60 28.80 0.00 6.17 362.9 2 25 52.10 40.70 0.00 5.42 368.3 2 26 53.80 47.10 0.06 9.45 377.7 2 27 53.60 45.10 0.19 8.35 386.1 2 28 56.70 40.00 0.00 7.45 393.5 3 1 57.20 31.80 0.00 5.95 399.5 3 2 56.60 37.70 0.02 6.75 406.2 3 3 56.70 31.00 0.00 5.62 411.8 3 4 59.70 29.10 0.00 6.69 418.5 3 5 61.40 30.00 0.00 7.57 426.1 3 6 66.90 33.20 0.00 10.68 436.8 3 7 68.30 34.90 0.00 11.73 448.5 3 8 70.70 33.50 0.00 12.56 461.1 3 9 68.30 36.70 0.00 12.18 473.3 3 10 62.10 39.80 0.00 10.07 483.3 3 11 58.40 50.30 0.19 13.35 496.7 3 12 67.60 49.10 0.01 17.35 514.0 3 13 64.00 45.50 0.00 13.75 527.8 3 14 58.70 51.80 1.63 14.25 542.0 3 15 61.50 47.20 1.48 13.35 555.4 3 16 62.10 37.20 0.00 9.29 564.7 3 17 58.10 41.10 0.04 8.60 573.3 3 18 63.10 45.20 0.01 13.15 586.4 3 19 66.10 38.50 0.00 11.62 598.0 3 20 63.40 42.00 0.33 11.70 609.7 3 21 59.10 44.50 0.04 10.80 620.5 3 22 56.90 44.30 0.10 9.60 630.1 3 23 53.80 42.10 0.52 6.95 637.1 3 24 57.50 44.70 0.09 10.10 647.2 3 25 62.10 48.80 0.14 14.45 661.6 3 26 73.90 48.80 0.01 20.35 682.0 3 27 67.30 43.40 0.00 14.35 696.3 3 28 60.60 48.40 0.00 13.50 709.8 3 29 67.60 41.40 0.00 13.50 723.3 3 30 66.40 40.20 0.00 12.36 735.7 3 31 55.20 44.50 0.23 8.85 744.5 4 1 53.00 40.10 0.10 5.65 750.2 4 2 57.40 42.20 0.03 8.80 759.0 4 3 52.40 34.10 0.16 4.13 763.1 4 4 56.80 37.50 0.01 6.79 769.9 4 5 55.90 36.00 0.19 6.04 776.0 4 6 56.80 36.50 0.04 6.57 782.5 4 7 60.40 43.60 0.04 11.00 793.5 4 8 58.90 47.20 0.10 12.05 805.6 4 9 65.00 40.90 0.00 11.95 817.5 4 10 60.30 37.80 0.06 8.57 826.1 4 11 56.70 42.50 0.23 8.60 834.7 4 12 59.00 39.30 0.00 8.36 843.1 4 13 55.20 39.50 0.50 6.55 849.6 4 14 51.80 38.00 0.19 4.51 854.1 peak pheromone trap catch 4 15 58.70 33.10 0.00 6.83 860.9 4 16 72.70 39.20 0.00 15.13 876.1 4 17 74.90 40.20 0.00 16.60 892.7 4 18 77.50 39.90 0.00 17.78 910.5 4 19 77.70 43.70 0.00 19.70 930.2 4 20 80.20 44.60 0.00 21.40 951.6 peak female adult emergence 4 21 63.00 45.80 0.00 13.40 965.0 4 22 60.80 40.80 0.00 9.81 974.8 4 23 54.90 38.40 0.08 6.10 980.9 4 24 54.70 45.20 0.41 8.95 989.8 4 25 59.90 44.80 0.05 11.35 1001.2 peak egg laying 4 26 59.60 37.50 0.05 8.15 1009.3 4 27 83.20 49.40 0.00 25.30 1034.6 4 28 63.90 50.00 0.05 15.95 1050.6 4 29 62.90 39.20 0.01 10.26 1060.8 4 30 70.50 40.50 0.00 14.53 1075.3 5 1 73.80 45.60 0.00 18.70 1094.0 5 2 70.90 46.80 0.00 17.85 1111.9 5 3 74.20 40.10 0.00 16.21 1128.1 5 4 64.20 43.70 0.00 12.95 1141.1 5 5 62.00 44.40 0.00 12.20 1153.3 5 6 63.20 41.90 0.03 11.55 1164.8 5 7 71.30 39.20 0.00 14.43 1179.2 5 8 80.60 42.20 0.00 20.40 1199.6 5 9 82.60 45.40 0.00 23.00 1222.6 5 10 70.20 49.20 0.00 18.70 1241.3 5 11 59.60 49.60 0.45 13.60 1254.9 5 12 55.80 48.10 0.23 10.95 1265.9 5 13 65.20 48.90 0.02 16.05 1281.9 peak egg hatch 5 14 71.00 48.50 0.00 18.75 1300.7 5 15 60.90 52.20 0.00 15.55 1316.2 5 16 58.90 52.30 0.00 14.60 1330.8 5 17 69.60 52.80 0.00 20.20 1351.0 5 18 76.70 49.90 0.31 22.30 1373.3 5 19 63.90 54.10 0.00 18.00 1391.3 5 20 70.60 55.50 0.00 22.05 1413.4 5 21 72.90 56.40 0.00 23.65 1437.0 5 22 58.70 53.90 0.27 15.30 1452.3 5 23 62.50 52.50 0.02 16.50 1468.8 5 24 66.50 53.60 0.00 19.05 1487.9 5 25 68.00 52.80 0.00 19.40 1507.3 5 26 70.10 54.40 0.00 21.25 1528.5 5 27 78.00 49.00 0.00 22.50 1551.0 5 28 85.30 53.00 0.00 28.15 1579.2 5 29 81.80 56.00 0.00 27.90 1607.1 5 30 78.00 52.80 0.00 24.40 1631.5 5 31 86.10 58.50 0.00 31.30 1662.8 6 1 62.50 53.90 0.21 17.20 1680.0 6 2 61.80 54.00 0.12 16.90 1696.9 6 3 63.90 54.40 0.07 18.15 1715.0 6 4 73.20 52.00 0.00 21.60 1736.6 6 5 86.60 53.60 0.00 29.10 1765.7 6 6 89.40 55.30 0.00 31.35 1797.1 6 7 90.60 56.90 0.00 32.75 1829.8 6 8 93.80 58.50 0.00 35.15 1865.0 6 9 90.10 56.80 0.00 32.45 1897.4 6 10 80.70 50.10 0.00 24.40 1921.8 6 11 81.40 49.90 0.00 24.65 1946.5 6 12 74.90 52.70 0.00 22.80 1969.3 6 13 76.80 44.90 0.00 19.85 1989.1 6 14 87.10 49.90 0.00 27.50 2016.6 6 15 84.40 53.00 0.00 27.70 2044.3 6 16 78.40 48.20 0.00 22.30 2066.6 6 17 81.00 49.30 0.00 24.15 2090.8 peak in density large larvae 6 18 82.00 59.20 0.00 29.60 2120.4 6 19 76.40 56.50 0.00 25.45 2145.8 6 20 80.30 52.50 0.00 25.40 2171.2 6 21 80.90 56.40 0.00 27.65 2198.9 6 22 78.50 49.70 0.00 23.10 2222.0 6 23 82.70 52.10 0.00 26.40 2248.4 6 24 84.70 56.90 0.00 29.80 2278.2 6 25 91.00 56.90 0.00 32.95 2311.1 6 26 95.40 61.60 0.00 37.50 2348.6 6 27 91.20 68.40 0.00 38.80 2387.4 Vx 6 28 83.60 66.30 0.00 33.95 2421.4 6 29 90.40 62.00 0.00 35.20 2456.6 6 30 92.20 59.80 0.00 35.00 2491.6 7 1 95.40 57.90 0.00 35.65 2527.2 7 2 96.90 60.20 0.00 37.55 2564.8 7 3 95.60 60.70 0.00 37.15 2601.9 7 4 93.70 59.70 0.00 35.70 2637.6 7 5 93.90 60.70 0.00 36.30 2673.9 7 6 89.50 57.10 0.00 32.30 2706.2 7 7 87.70 55.40 0.00 30.55 2736.8 7 8 90.40 57.00 0.00 32.70 2769.5 7 9 85.20 59.80 0.00 31.50 2801.0 7 10 77.30 60.30 0.00 27.80 2828.8 7 11 71.80 63.00 0.00 26.40 2855.2 7 12 82.10 60.90 0.00 30.50 2885.7 7 13 80.90 62.70 0.01 30.80 2916.5 7 14 83.40 57.60 0.00 29.50 2946.0 7 15 82.20 54.70 0.00 27.45 2973.4 7 16 77.70 61.30 0.00 28.50 3001.9 7 17 86.90 50.30 0.00 27.60 3029.5 7 18 96.70 59.00 0.00 36.85 3066.4 7 19 93.80 59.80 0.00 35.80 3102.2 7 20 87.70 56.50 0.00 31.10 3133.3 7 21 75.70 57.80 0.00 25.75 3159.0 7 22 72.10 53.10 0.00 21.60 3180.6 7 23 80.30 56.40 0.00 27.35 3208.0 7 24 83.20 52.40 0.00 26.80 3234.8 7 25 68.60 61.60 0.13 24.10 3258.9 7 26 72.70 55.60 0.03 23.15 3282.0 7 27 76.30 51.80 0.00 23.05 3305.1 7 28 85.90 52.80 0.00 28.35 3333.4 7 29 97.60 59.90 0.00 37.75 3371.2 7 30 103.10 59.70 0.00 40.40 3411.6 7 31 100.30 60.10 0.00 39.20 3450.8 8 1 99.40 55.40 0.00 36.40 3487.2 8 2 81.80 60.70 0.00 30.25 3517.4 8 3 83.10 63.10 0.00 32.10 3549.5 8 4 83.60 55.80 0.00 28.70 3578.2 8 5 79.20 51.60 0.00 24.40 3602.6 8 6 80.20 50.80 0.00 24.50 3627.1 8 7 87.20 53.30 0.00 29.25 3656.4 8 8 79.70 56.20 0.00 26.95 3683.3 8 9 83.80 62.30 0.00 32.05 3715.4 8 10 84.60 59.00 0.00 30.80 3746.2 8 11 87.70 60.90 0.00 33.30 3779.5 8 12 89.20 62.20 0.00 34.70 3814.2 8 13 85.40 56.50 0.00 29.95 3844.1 8 14 73.30 59.90 0.00 25.60 3869.7 8 15 76.70 61.80 0.00 28.25 3898.0 8 16 84.20 51.00 0.00 26.60 3924.6 8 17 89.60 53.20 0.00 30.40 3955.0 8 18 97.10 54.70 0.00 34.90 3989.9 8 19 97.60 59.70 0.00 37.65 4027.5 8 20 81.10 58.40 0.00 28.75 4056.3 8 21 80.50 52.60 0.00 25.55 4081.8 8 22 85.00 54.00 0.00 28.50 4110.3 8 23 85.70 54.60 0.00 29.15 4139.5 8 24 84.60 55.00 0.00 28.80 4168.3 8 25 85.60 50.90 0.00 27.25 4195.5 8 26 88.70 50.10 0.00 28.40 4223.9 8 27 87.90 53.40 0.00 29.65 4253.6 8 28 81.40 63.20 0.00 31.30 4284.9 8 29 73.60 64.10 0.23 27.85 4312.7 8 30 71.50 56.60 0.68 23.05 4335.8 8 31 74.80 57.30 0.00 25.05 4360.8 9 1 76.30 57.50 0.00 25.90 4386.7 9 2 71.40 56.90 0.00 23.15 4409.9 9 3 68.10 48.70 0.00 17.40 4427.3 9 4 67.40 47.10 0.00 16.25 4443.5 9 5 68.20 48.60 0.00 17.40 4460.9 9 6 69.20 44.40 0.03 15.80 4476.7 9 7 74.50 52.20 0.00 22.35 4499.1 9 8 81.80 51.00 0.00 25.40 4524.5 9 9 83.00 57.20 0.00 29.10 4553.6 9 10 87.30 51.50 0.00 28.40 4582.0 9 11 93.90 54.80 0.00 33.35 4615.3 9 12 90.00 57.60 0.00 32.80 4648.1 9 13 76.50 55.70 0.00 25.10 4673.2 9 14 59.90 50.50 0.00 14.20 4687.4 9 15 64.00 46.20 0.00 14.10 4701.5 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg ARAO 2006-2015
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2015 ARAO AURORA OR
DateDDsEvent
 4-14-15 854peak pheromone trap catch
 4-20-15 952peak female adult emergence
 4-25-15 1001peak egg laying
 5-13-15 1282peak egg hatch
 6-17-15 2091peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)